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As Earth’s climate warms, surface melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet is projected to intensify, contributing to rising sea levels1–4. Observations5–7 and theory8–10 indicate that meltwater generated at the surface of an ice sheet can drain to its bed via crevasses and moulins, where it flows relatively unhindered to the coast. This understanding of the movement of water within, and beneath, ice sheets, underpins theoretical models which are used to make projections of ice sheet change11. In this study, we show the first evidence of a disruptive drainage pathway in Greenland, whereby a subglacial flood – triggered by a draining subglacial lake – breaks through the ice sheet surface. This unprecedented outburst of water causes fracturing of the ice sheet, and the formation of 25-metre-high ice blocks. These observations reveal a complex, bidirectional coupling between the surface and basal hydrological systems of an ice sheet, which was previously unknown in Greenland. Analysis of over 30 years of satellite imagery confirms that the subglacial lake has drained at least once previously. However, on that occasion the floodwater failed to breach the ice surface. The two contrasting drainage regimes, coupled with the increased rates of ice melting and thinning that have occurred over the past three decades years, suggest that Arctic climate warming may have facilitated a new, disruptive mode of hydrological drainage on the ice sheet. As such, our observations reveal an emerging and poorly understood phenomenon, which is not currently captured in physical ice sheet models.

Accurately estimating surface melt volume of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is challenging, and has hitherto relied on climate modelling, or on observations from satellite remote sensing. Each of these methods has its limitations, especially in regions with high surface melt. This study aims to demonstrate the potential of improving surface melt simulations by deploying a deep learning model. A deep-learning-based framework has been developed to correct surface melt from the regional atmospheric climate model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2), using meteorological observations from automatic weather stations (AWSs), and surface albedo from satellite imagery. The framework includes three steps: (1) training a deep multilayer perceptron (MLP) model using AWS observations; (2) correcting moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo observations, and (3) using these two to correct the RACMO2 surface melt simulations. Using observations from three AWSs at the Larsen B and C Ice Shelves, Antarctica, cross-validation shows a high accuracy (root mean square error = 0.95 mm w.e. per day, mean absolute error = 0.42 mm w.e. per day, and coefficient of determination = 0.95). Moreover, the deep MLP model outperforms conventional machine learning models (e.g., random forest regression, XGBoost) and a shallow MLP model. When applying the trained deep MLP model over the entire Larsen Ice Shelf, the resulting, corrected RACMO2 surface melt shows a better correlation with the AWS observations for two out of three AWSs. However, for one location (AWS 18) the deep MLP model does not show improved agreement with AWS observations, likely due to the heterogeneous drivers of melt within the corresponding coarse resolution model pixels. Our study demonstrates the opportunity to improve surface melt simulations using deep learning combined with satellite albedo observations. On the other hand, more work is required to refine the method, especially for complicated and heterogeneous terrains.

Recent studies indicate that a declining surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet’s (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. It is therefore crucial to understand the liquid water balance of the ice sheet and its response to increasing temperatures and surface melt if we want to accurately predict future sea level rise. The ice sheet firn layer covers ~90% of the GrIS and provides pore space for storage and refreezing of meltwater. Because of this, the firn layer can retain up to ~45% of the surface meltwater and thus act as an efficient buffer to ice sheet mass loss. However, in a warming climate this buffer capacity of the firn layer is expected to decrease, amplifying meltwater runoff and sea-level rise. Dedicated firn models are used to understand how firn layers evolve and affect runoff. Additionally, firn models are used to estimate the changing thickness of the firn layer, which is necessary in altimetry to convert surface height change into ice sheet mass loss.Here, we present the latest version of our firn model IMAU-FDM. With respect to the previous version, changes have been made to the handling of the freshly fallen snow, the densification rate of the firn and the conduction of heat. These changes lead to an improved representation of firn density and temperature. The results have been thoroughly validated using an extensive dataset of density and temperature measurements that we have compiled covering 126 different locations on the GrIS. Meltwater behaviour in the model is validated with upward-looking GPR measurements at Dye-2. Lastly, we present an in-depth look at the evolution firn characteristics at some typical locations in Greenland.Dedicated, stand-alone firn models offer various benefits to using a regional climate model with an embedded firn model. Firstly, the vertical resolution for buried snow and ice layers can be larger, improving accuracy. Secondly, a stand-alone firn model allows for spinning up the model to a more accurate equilibrium state. And thirdly, a stand-alone model is more cost- and time-effective to use. Firn models are increasingly capable of simulating the firn layer, but areas with large amounts of melt still pose the greatest challenge.

The roughness of a natural surface is an important parameter in atmospheric models, as it determines the intensity of turbulent transfer between the atmosphere and the surface. Unfortunately, this parameter is often poorly known, especially in remote areas where neither high-resolution elevation models nor eddy-covariance measurements are available.In this study, we take advantage of the measurements of the ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeter. We use the geolocated photons product (ATL03) to retrieve a 1-m resolution surface elevation product over the K-transect (West Greenland ice sheet). In combination with a bulk drag partitioning model, the retrieved surface elevation is used to estimate the aerodynamic roughness length (z0m) of the surface.We demonstrate the high precision of the retrieved ICESat-2 elevation using co-located UAV photogrammetry, and then evaluate the modelled aerodynamic roughness against multiple in situ eddy-covariance observations. The results point out the importance to use a bulk drag model over a more empirical formulation.The currently available ATL03 geolocated photons are used to map the aerodynamic roughness along the K-transect (2018-2020). We find a considerable spatiotemporal variability in z0m, ranging between 10−4 m for a smooth snow surface to more than 10−1 m for rough crevassed areas, which confirms the need to incorporate a variable aerodynamic roughness in atmospheric models over ice sheets.

Presently, surface melt over Antarctica is estimated using climate modeling or remote sensing. However, accurately estimating surface melt remains challenging. Both climate modeling and remote sensing have limitations, particularly in the most crucial areas with intense surface melt. The motivation of our study is to investigate the opportunities and challenges in improving the accuracy of surface melt estimation using a deep neural network. The trained deep neural network uses meteorological observations from automatic weather stations (AWS) and surface albedo observations from satellite imagery to improve surface melt simulations from the regional atmospheric climate model version 2.3p2 (RACMO2). Based on observations from three AWS at the Larsen B and C Ice Shelves, cross-validation shows a high accuracy (root mean square error = 0.898 mm.w.e.d−1, mean absolute error = 0.429 mm.w.e.d−1, and coefficient of determination = 0.958). The deep neural network also outperforms conventional machine learning models (e.g., random forest regression, XGBoost) and a shallow neural network. To compute surface melt for the entire Larsen Ice Shelf, the deep neural network is applied to RACMO2 simulations. The resulting, corrected surface melt shows a better correlation with the AWS observations in AWS 14 and 17, but not in AWS 18. Also, the spatial pattern of the surface melt is improved compared to the original RACMO2 simulation. A possible explanation for the mismatch at AWS 18 is its complex geophysical setting. Even though our study shows an opportunity to improve surface melt simulations using a deep neural network, further study is needed to refine the method, especially for complicated, heterogeneous terrain.

Many Greenland glaciers have been attacked by the ocean from below and, in turn, contributed to sea-level rise from the ice sheet., The retreat and acceleration of Greenland glaciers since the mid-1990s have been attributed to the enhanced intrusion of warm Atlantic Waters (AW) into fjords, but this assertion has not been quantitatively tested on a Greenland-wide basis or included in models. Here, we investigate how AW influenced retreat at 226 marine-terminating glaciers using ocean modeling, remote sensing, and in situ observations. We identify 74 glaciers in deep fjords with AW controlling 49% of the mass loss that retreated when warming increased undercutting by 48%. Conversely, 27 glaciers calving on shallow ridges and 24 in cold, shallow waters retreated little, contributing 15% of the loss, while 10 glaciers retreated substantially following the collapse of several ice shelves. The retreat mechanisms remain undiagnosed at 87 glaciers without ocean and bathymetry data, which controlled 19% of the loss. Ice sheet projections that exclude ocean-induced undercutting may underestimate mass loss by at least a factor of 2.

This study evaluates the impact of a new snow and ice albedo and radiative transfer scheme on the surface mass and energy budget for the Greenland ice sheet in the latest version of the regional climate model RACMO2, version 2.3p3. We also evaluate the modeled (sub)surface temperature and snow melt, as subsurface heating by radiation penetration now occurs. The results are compared to the previous model version and are evaluated against stake measurements and automatic weather station data of the K-transect and PROMICE projects. In addition, subsurface snow temperature profiles are compared at the K-transect, Summit and southeast Greenland. The surface mass balance is in good agreement with observations, and only changes considerably with respect to the previous RACMO2 version around the ice margins and in the percolation zone. Snow melt and refreezing, on the other hand, are changed more substantially in various regions due to the changed albedo representation, subsurface energy absorption and melt water percolation. Internal heating leads to considerably higher snow temperatures in summer, in agreement with observations, and introduces a shallow layer of subsurface melt.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

We use two snow models, the IMAU Firn Densification Model (IMAU-FDM) and SNOWPACK, to model firn characteristics in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). We force these models with mass and energy fluxes from the Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel (RACMO2.3p2) to construct a 1979–2016 climatology of AP firn density, temperature and liquid water content. A comparison with 75 snow temperature observations at 10 m depth and with density from 11 firn cores, suggests that both snow models perform adequately. In this study, we focus on the detection of so-called perennial firn aquifers (PFAs), that are formed when surface meltwater percolates into the firnpack in summer, is then buried by snowfall, and does not refreeze during the following winter. In 941 model grid points, covering ~ 28,000 km2, PFAs existed for at least one year in the simulated period, most notably in the western AP. At these locations, surface meltwater production exceeds 150 to 300 mm w.e. yr−1, with accumulation at least an order of magnitude larger. Most pronounced and widespread are PFAs modelled on and around Wilkins ice shelf. Here, both meltwater production and accumulation rates are sufficiently high to cause PFA formation in most years in the 1979–2016 period, covering a large part of the ice shelf. Other notable PFA locations are Wordie ice shelf, an ice shelf that has almost completely disappeared in recent decades, and the relatively warm northwestern mountain ranges of Palmer Land, where accumulations rates can be extremely large and PFAs are formed frequently. We find that not only the magnitude of melt and accumulation is important, but also the timing. If large accumulation events occur in the months following an above average summer melt event, this favours PFA formation in that year. Finally, we find that most PFAs are predicted near the grounding lines of the (former) Prince Gustav, Wilkins and Wordie ice shelves. This highlights the need to further investigate how PFAs may impact ice shelf disintegration events, in a similar way as supraglacial lakes do.

International audience; We examine data continuity between the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow‐On (FO) missions over Greenland and Antarctica using independent data from the mass budget method, which calculates the difference between ice sheet surface mass balance and ice discharge at the periphery. For both ice sheets, we find consistent GRACE/GRACE‐FO time series across the data gap, at the continental and regional scales, and the data gap is confidently filled with mass budget method data. In Greenland, the GRACE‐FO data reveal an exceptional summer loss of 600 Gt in 2019 following two cold summers. In Antarctica, ongoing high mass losses in the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Wilkes Land in East Antarctica cumulate to 2130, 560, and 370 Gt, respectively, since 2002. A cumulative mass gain of 980 Gt in Queen Maud Land since 2009, however, led to a pause in the acceleration in mass loss from Antarctica after 2016.

Snow and ice albedo schemes in present day climate models often lack a sophisticated radiation penetration scheme and are limited to a broadband albedo. In this study, we evaluate a new snow albedo scheme in the regional climate model RACMO2 that uses the two-stream radiative transfer in snow model TARTES and the spectral-to-narrowband albedo module SNOWBAL for the Greenland ice sheet. Additionally, the bare ice albedo parameterization has been updated. The snow and ice albedo output of the updated version of RACMO2, referred to as RACMO2.3p3, is evaluated using PROMICE and K-transect in-situ data and MODIS remote-sensing observations. Generally, the RACMO2.3p3 albedo is in very good agreement with satellite observations, leading to a domain-averaged bias of only -0.012. Some discrepancies are, however, observed for regions close to the ice margin. Compared to the previous iteration RACMO2.3p2, the albedo of RACMO2.3p3 is considerably higher in the bare ice zone during the ablation season, as atmospheric conditions now alter the bare ice albedo. For most other regions, however, the albedo of RACMO2.3p3 is lower due to spectral effects, radiation penetration, snow metamorphism or a delayed firn-ice transition. Furthermore, a white-out effect during cloudy conditions is captured and the snow albedo shows a low sensitivity to low soot concentrations. The surface mass balance of RACMO2.3p3 compares well with observations. Subsurface heating, however, now leads to increased melt and refreezing in south Greenland, changing the snow structure.

Over ice sheets and glaciers, the turbulent heat fluxes are, next to the radiative fluxes, the second largest source of energy driving the ablation. In general, most (climate) models use a bulk turbulence parametrization for the estimation of these energy fluxes. Recent work suggest that the turbulent heat fluxes might be greatly underestimated by such models. Unfortunately, only a few direct and long-term observations of turbulent fluxes are available over ice sheets to evaluate their inclusion in models. In this study, we developed a vertical propeller eddy-covariance method to continuously monitor the sensible heat fluxes over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). We quantify its contribution to surface ablation using three years of data from the K-transect, located in the western ablation area of the GrIS. The direct flux measurements are also compared to those from several bulk turbulence models, and to a high-resolution regional climate model (RACMO2), in order to quantify modelling uncertainty.The differences between observations and models highlight the need for upgrading the bulk turbulence parameterizations and especially the model parameters, such as the surface roughness lengths. We also find that during short but extreme warm events, the turbulent heat fluxes become the largest source for surface ablation. Typical for such intense events on the K-transect are fast changes in wind direction, which cause changes in the surface roughness parameters due to the anisotropic feature of the ice hummocks. These parameters are critical for modelling the turbulent fluxes in bulk parameterizations, but are often variable and unknown. We conclude with drone topography measurements to better constrain the surface roughness locally, and discuss methods to improve the modelling of turbulent surface fluxes on the whole GrIS.

In 2019, the Kangerlussuaq transect has experienced a record surface melt season at some stations, exceeding even the melt seasons of 2010 and 2012. We demonstrate that net radiation has been driving the high surface melt rates especially in the higher parts of the transect.Since 2003, continuous measurements of the surface energy budget are made in a transect of four automatic weather stations, spanning the ablation area close to the ice edge to the accumulation are of the Greenland Ice Sheet. All available data have been homogenized and corrected, and an unprecedented time series of surface energy budget is presented here, including meltwater production. In this contribution, the melt season of 2019 is put into the longer-term context, and precise atmospheric drivers of the melt are exposed.Sixteen years of data clearly reveal the inland and upward expansion of the ablation area. The weather station closest to the equilibrium line (S9) shows a clear and distinct reduction in albedo, and a relatively strong increase in surface melt, which has started to exceed accumulation during the period of observation. Photographs of the area around S9 show that the surface has undergone major changes between 2003 and 2019, now featuring many surface hydrological features that were completely absent in 2003.These changes have important implications for the hydrology of the surface, the near-surface, and the underlying firn. A firn model calculation reveals that the entire firn column has been heating by several degrees Celsius in the percolation zone, due to refreezing of meltwater. Sudden, stepwise warming is seen in extreme melt seasons like 2019.

With a maximum in glaciated area below 450 m elevation (peak in the hypsometry), most Svalbard glaciers currently experience summer melt that consistently exceeds winter snowfall. Consequently, these glaciers can only exist through efficient meltwater refreezing in their porous firn layers. Before the mid-1980s, refreezing retained 54% of the meltwater in firn above 350 m. In 1985-2018, atmospheric warming migrated the firn line upward by 100 m, close to the hypsometry peak, which triggered a rapid ablation zone expansion (+62%). The resulting melt increase in the accumulation zones reduced the firn refreezing capacity by 25%, enhancing runoff at all elevations. In this dry climate, the loss of refreezing capacity is quasipermanent: a temporary return to pre-1985 climate conditions between 2005 and 2012 could not recover the meltwater buffer mechanism, causing strongly amplified mass loss in subsequent warm years (e.g. 2013), when ablation zones extend beyond the hypsometry peak.

We predict the location of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) in the Antarctic Peninsula using the updated regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2, that is specifically adapted for use over the polar regions. With RACMO2 output we force two sophisticated firn models, IMAU-FDM and SNOWPACK, with surface mass fluxes and surface energy fluxes, respectively. These firn models explicitly calculate processes in the snowpack, such as densification, meltwater penetration, refreezing, retention and runoff.In this presentation, we focus on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), where conditions are favorable for the formation of PFAs: there is both sufficient meltwater production and snowfall to store the meltwater in the firn during winter without refreezing, as the fresh snow insulates the meltwater from the winter cold wave. These conditions are similar to those locations where PFAs were discovered in Greenland and Svalbard.While slightly different in behavior, both firn models calculate PFAs on Wilkins ice shelf and the northwestern AP mountain range, but also near the grounding lines of unstable or disintegrated ice shelves such as Prince Gustav, Larsen B and Wordie. The PFAs exist in different forms, e.g. long-lasting, shallow, deep or multi-layer, and are sensitive to the magnitude and timing of atmospheric forcing conditions. We carefully explore processes controlling their formation and/or longevity, discuss their implications for ice shelf stability, and their potential to exist elsewhere in Antarctica.

The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over past decades through the accelerated flow of its glaciers, conditioned by ocean temperature and bed topography. Glaciers retreating along retrograde slopes (that is, the bed elevation drops in the inland direction) are potentially unstable, while subglacial ridges slow down the glacial retreat. Despite major advances in the mapping of subglacial bed topography, significant sectors of Antarctica remain poorly resolved and critical spatial details are missing. Here we present a novel, high-resolution and physically based description of Antarctic bed topography using mass conservation. Our results reveal previously unknown basal features with major implications for glacier response to climate change. For example, glaciers flowing across the Transantarctic Mountains are protected by broad, stabilizing ridges. Conversely, in the marine basin of Wilkes Land, East Antarctica, we find retrograde slopes along Ninnis and Denman glaciers, with stabilizing slopes beneath Moscow University, Totten and Lambert glacier system, despite corrections in bed elevation of up to 1 km for the latter. This transformative description of bed topography redefines the high- and lower-risk sectors for rapid sea level rise from Antarctica; it will also significantly impact model projections of sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries., SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Projection of the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project – phase 6 (CMIP6) takes the form of simulations from coupled ice-sheet-climate models and standalone ice sheet models, overseen by the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). This paper describes the experimental setup for process-based sea-level change projections to be performed with standalone Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models in the context of ISMIP6. The ISMIP6 protocol relies on a suite of polar atmospheric and oceanic CMIP-based forcing for ice sheet models, in order to explore the uncertainty in projected sea-level change due to future emissions scenarios, CMIP models, ice sheet models, and parameterizations for ice-ocean interactions. We describe here the approach taken for defining the suite of ISMIP6 standalone ice sheet simulations, document the experimental framework and implementation, as well as present an overview of the ISMIP6 forcing to be used by participating ice sheet modeling groups.

Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) in recent years has been dominated by runoff from surface melt. It is currently being studied extensively, while little interest has been given to the smallest component of surface mass balance (SMB): the vapor flux. Although poorly understood, it is not negligible and could potentially play a larger role in SMB in a warming climate where temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation changes remain uncertain. Here we present an innovative approach to estimate the vapor flux using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 6 data and a modified vapor flux model (BMF13) over the GrIS between 2003 and 2014. One modification to the BMF13 model includes a new Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer surface aerodynamic roughness product, which likely produces more accurate estimates of the drag coefficient on the ice sheet. When comparing AIRS data with GC-Net and Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet automatic weather station observations of skin temperature, near-surface air temperature, and humidity, they agree within 2 K, 2.68 K, and 0.34 g kg−1. Largest differences occur in the ablation zone where there is significant subgrid heterogeneity. Overall, the average vapor flux from the GrIS between 2003 and 2014 was found to be 14.6 ± 3.6 Gt yr−1. No statistically significant trends were found during the data record. This data set is compared to the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2.3) vapor flux, and BMF13 produced smaller vapor fluxes in the summer (~0.05 Gt d−1) and slightly more deposition in the winter (~9.4 × 10−3 Gt d−1). Annually, differences between BMF13 and RACMO2.3 were only 30 ± 15%.

The GRACE mission has had a revolutionary impact on the study of Earth system processes, but it provides a band-limited representation of mass changes. This is particularly problematic when studying mass changes that tend to be concentrated in fairly narrow zones near the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). In this study, coarse-resolution estimates of the mass change derived from GRACE have been enhanced by the introduction of heuristic scaling factors applied to model surface mass balance (SMB) and observed surface elevation change (SEC). Corresponding results indicate large spatial heterogeneity in the gridded scaling factors at the 0.5° x 0.5° scale, reflecting significant mass losses concentrated along the ice sheet margin and relatively small internal ice sheet changes at higher elevations. The scaled GRACE-derived vertical displacements are in the range from -2 to 14 mm/yr from 2003 to 2015. The Greenland GPS network (GNET) was used to examine the downscaling GRACE predictions of the crustal displacements. The results show consistency of scaled GRACE-predicted and GPS-observed seasonal and long-term uplift in major drainage basins of Greenland. Our results indicate that GRACE predictions underestimate vertical displacements at sites located in regions characterized by concentrated loads, but perform well in other regions. Differences between predicted and observed uplift rates are mainly caused by the sensitivity kernels, because GPS and GRACE estimates are based on weighted averages of mass loss in different sensitivity ranges. Moreover, a large uncertainty in the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) correction may also cause errors in the GPS-to-GRACE ratio.

Significance Statement We evaluate the state of the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last four decades using a comprehensive, precise satellite record and output products from a regional atmospheric climate model to document its impact on sea-level rise. The mass loss is dominated by enhanced glacier flow in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface circumpolar deep water, including East Antarctica, which has been a major contributor over the entire period. The same sectors are likely to dominate sea-level rise from Antarctica in decades to come as enhanced polar westerlies push more circumpolar deep water toward the glaciers., We use updated drainage inventory, ice thickness, and ice velocity data to calculate the grounding line ice discharge of 176 basins draining the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1979 to 2017. We compare the results with a surface mass balance model to deduce the ice sheet mass balance. The total mass loss increased from 40 ± 9 Gt/y in 1979–1990 to 50 ± 14 Gt/y in 1989–2000, 166 ± 18 Gt/y in 1999–2009, and 252 ± 26 Gt/y in 2009–2017. In 2009–2017, the mass loss was dominated by the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Sea sectors, in West Antarctica (159 ± 8 Gt/y), Wilkes Land, in East Antarctica (51 ± 13 Gt/y), and West and Northeast Peninsula (42 ± 5 Gt/y). The contribution to sea-level rise from Antarctica averaged 3.6 ± 0.5 mm per decade with a cumulative 14.0 ± 2.0 mm since 1979, including 6.9 ± 0.6 mm from West Antarctica, 4.4 ± 0.9 mm from East Antarctica, and 2.5 ± 0.4 mm from the Peninsula (i.e., East Antarctica is a major participant in the mass loss). During the entire period, the mass loss concentrated in areas closest to warm, salty, subsurface, circumpolar deep water (CDW), that is, consistent with enhanced polar westerlies pushing CDW toward Antarctica to melt its floating ice shelves, destabilize the glaciers, and raise sea level.

We map recent Greenland Ice Sheet elevation change at high spatial (5 km) and temporal (monthly) resolution using CryoSat-2 altimetry. After correcting for the impact of changing snowpack properties associated with unprecedented surface melting in 2012, we find good agreement (3 cm/yr bias) with airborne measurements. With the aid of regional climate and firn modeling, we compute high spatial and temporal resolution records of Greenland mass evolution, which correlate (R = 0.96) with monthly satellite gravimetry and reveal glacier dynamic imbalance. During 2011–2014, Greenland mass loss averaged 269 ± 51 Gt/yr. Atmospherically driven losses were widespread, with surface melt variability driving large fluctuations in the annual mass deficit. Terminus regions of five dynamically thinning glaciers, which constitute less than 1% of Greenland’s area, contributed more than 12% of the net ice loss. This high-resolution record demonstrates that mass deficits extending over small spatial and temporal scales have made a relatively large contribution to recent ice sheet imbalance.

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening., SCOPUS: re.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Surface melting over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) plays a crucial role for the stability of ice shelves and dynamics of grounded ice, hence modulating the mass balance in a region of the world which is particularly sensitive to increasing surface temperatures. Understanding the processes that drive melting using surface energy and mass balance models is fundamental to improving estimates of current and future surface melting and associated sea level rise through ice-shelf collapse. This is even more important in view of both the paucity of in-situ measurements in Antarctica generally and the specific challenges presented by the circulation patterns over the Antarctic Peninsula. In this study, we evaluate the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) at a 10 km spatial resolution between 1999 and 2009, a period which coincides with the availability of active microwave data from the QuikSCAT mission. This is the first time that this model, which has been validated extensively over Greenland, has been applied to the Antarctic Peninsula at a high resolution. We compare melt occurrence modeled by MAR with a combination of estimates from passive and active microwave data. Our primary regional focus is the northern East Antarctic Peninsula (East AP), where we evaluate MAR against wind and temperature data collected by three automatic weather stations (AWS). Our results indicate that satellites estimates show greater melt frequency, a larger melt extent, and a quicker expansion to peak melt extent than MAR in the center and east of the Larsen C ice shelf. The difference between the remote sensing and modeled estimates reduces in the north and west of the East AP. Melting in the East AP can be initiated by both sporadic westerly föhn flow over the AP and northerly winds advecting warm air from lower latitudes. To quantify MAR's ability to simulate different circulation patterns that affect melt, we take a unique approach to evaluate melt occurrence (using satellite data) and concurrent temperature biases associated with specific wind direction biases using AWS data over the Larsen Ice Shelf. Our results indicate that although MAR shows an overall warm bias, it also shows fewer warm, strong westerly winds than reported by AWS stations, which may lead to an underestimation of melt. The underestimation of föhn flow in the east of the Larsen C may potentially be resolved by removing the hydrostatic assumption in MAR or increasing spatial resolution. The underestimation of southwesterly flow in particular may be reduced by using higher-resolution topography.

Ice shelves modulate Antarctica’s contributions to sea-level rise. Regional-climate-model simulations and observations suggest historical ice melt intensification before collapse of Antarctic peninsula shelves, and project future melt evolution.

We use satellite observations to document rapid acceleration and ice loss from a formerly slow-flowing, marine-based sector of Austfonna, the largest ice cap in the Eurasian Arctic. During the past two decades, the sector ice discharge has increased 45-fold, the velocity regime has switched from predominantly slow (~ 101 m/yr) to fast (~ 103 m/yr) flow, and rates of ice thinning have exceeded 25 m/yr. At the time of widespread dynamic activation, parts of the terminus may have been near floatation. Subsequently, the imbalance has propagated 50 km inland to within 8 km of the ice cap summit. Our observations demonstrate the ability of slow-flowing ice to mobilize and quickly transmit the dynamic imbalance inland; a process that we show has initiated rapid ice loss to the ocean and redistribution of ice mass to locations more susceptible to melt, yet which remains poorly understood.

© 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We compare four independent estimates of the mass balance of the Amundsen Sea Embayment of West Antarctica, an area experiencing rapid retreat and mass loss to the sea. We use ICESat and Operation IceBridge laser altimetry, Envisat radar altimetry, GRACE time-variable gravity, RACMO2.3 surface mass balance, ice velocity from imaging radars, and ice thickness from radar sounders. The four methods agree in terms of mass loss and acceleration in loss at the regional scale. Over 1992-2013, the mass loss is 83 ± 5 Gt/yr with an acceleration of 6.1 ± 0.7 Gt/yr2. During the common period 2003-2009, the mass loss is 84 ± 10 Gt/yr with an acceleration of 16.3 ± 5.6 Gt/yr2, nearly 3 times the acceleration over 1992-2013. Over 2003-2011, the mass loss is 102 ± 10 Gt/yr with an acceleration of 15.7 ± 4.0 Gt/yr2. The results reconcile independent mass balance estimates in a setting dominated by change in ice dynamics with significant variability in surface mass balance.

Ice discharge from large ice sheets plays a direct role in determining rates of sea level rise. We map present-day Antarctic-wide surface velocities using Landsat 7 & 8 imagery spanning 2013–2015 and compare to earlier estimates derived from synthetic aperture radar, revealing heterogeneous changes in ice flow since ~ 2008. The new mapping provides complete coastal and inland coverage of ice velocity with a mean error of -1 , resulting from multiple overlapping image pairs acquired during the daylit period. Using an optimized flux gate, ice discharge from Antarctica is 1932 ± 38 Gigatons per year (Gt yr -1 ) in 2015, an increase of 35 ± 15 Gt yr -1 from the time of the radar mapping. Flow accelerations across the grounding lines of West Antarctica's Amundsen Sea Embayment, Getz Ice Shelf and Marguerite Bay on the western Antarctic Peninsula, account for 89 % of this increase. In contrast, glaciers draining the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have been remarkably stable over the period of observation. Including modeled rates of snow accumulation and basal melt, the Antarctic ice sheet lost ice at an average rate of 186 ± 93 Gt yr -1 between 2008 and 2015. The modest increase in ice discharge over the past 7 years is contrasted by high rates of ice sheet mass loss and distinct spatial patters of elevation lowering. This suggests that the recent pattern of mass loss in Antarctica, dominated by the Amundsen Sea sector, is likely part of a longer-term phase of enhanced glacier flow initiated in the decades leading up to the first continent wide radar mapping of ice flow.

The Greenland ice sheet has been one of the largest contributors to global sea-level rise over the past 20 years, accounting for 0.5 mm yr−1 of a total of 3.2 mm yr−1. A significant portion of this contribution is associated with the speed-up of an increased number of glaciers in southeast and northwest Greenland. Here, we show that the northeast Greenland ice stream, which extends more than 600 km into the interior of the ice sheet, is now undergoing sustained dynamic thinning, linked to regional warming, after more than a quarter of a century of stability. This sector of the Greenland ice sheet is of particular interest, because the drainage basin area covers 16% of the ice sheet (twice that of Jakobshavn Isbræ) and numerical model predictions suggest no significant mass loss for this sector, leading to an under-estimation of future global sea-level rise. The geometry of the bedrock and monotonic trend in glacier speed-up and mass loss suggests that dynamic drawdown of ice in this region will continue in the near future.

The accelerating loss of mass from the Greenland ice sheet is a major contribution to current sea level rise. Increased melt water runoff is responsible for half of Greenlands mass loss increase. Surface melt has been increasing in extent and intensity, setting a record for surface area melt and runoff in 2012. The mechanisms and timescales involved in allowing surface melt water to reach the ocean where it can contribute to sea level rise are poorly understood. The potential capacity to store this water in liquid or frozen form in the firn (multi-year snow layer) is significant, and could delay its sea-level contribution. Here we describe direct observation of water within a perennial firn aquifer persisting throughout the winter in the southern ice sheet,where snow accumulation and melt rates are high. This represents a previously unknown storagemode for water within the ice sheet. Ice cores, groundairborne radar and a regional climatemodel are used to estimate aquifer area (70 plue or minus 10 x 10(exp 3) square kilometers ) and water table depth (5-50 m). The perennial firn aquifer represents a new glacier facies to be considered 29 in future ice sheet mass 30 and energy budget calculations.

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[1] We estimate ice volume change rates in the northwest Greenland drainage basin during 2003‐2009 using Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimeter data. Elevation changes are often reported to be largest near the frontal portion of outlet glaciers. To improve the volume change estimate, we supplement the ICESat data with altimeter surveys from NASA’s Airborne Topographic Mapper from 2002 to 2010 and NASA’s Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor from 2010. The Airborne data are mainly concentrated along the ice margin and thus have a significant impact on the estimate of the volume change. Our results show that adding Airborne Topographic Mapper and Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor data to the ICESat data increases the catchment-wide estimate of ice volume loss by 11%, mainly due to an improved volume loss estimate along the ice sheet margin. Furthermore, our results show a significant acceleration in mass loss at elevations above 1200m. Both the improved mass loss estimate along the ice sheet margin and the acceleration at higher elevations have implications for predictions of the elastic adjustment of the lithosphere caused by present-day ice mass changes. Our study shows that the use of ICESat data alone to predict elastic uplift rates biases the predicted rates by several millimeters per year at GPS locations along the northwestern coast.

This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements.

Climate archives available from deep sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes, and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that, during the last decade (2000s), atmospheric and sea surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago, when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions during the last 10,000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during the recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to strongly influence both regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. Projections from climate models are investigated to quantify the magnitude and rates of future changes in Greenland temperature, which may be faster than past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Within one century, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland may reach temperatures last time encountered during the last interglacial period, approximately 125,000 years ago. We review and discuss whether analogies between the last interglacial and future changes are reasonable, because of the different seasonal impacts of orbital and greenhouse gas forcings. Over several decades to centuries, future Greenland melt may act as a negative feedback, limiting regional warming albeit with global sea level and climatic impacts. 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. How to cite this article

Global warming is predicted to have a profound impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its contribution to global sea-level rise. Recent mass loss in the northwest of Greenland has been substantial. Using aerial photographs, we produced digital elevation models and extended the time record of recent observed marginal dynamic thinning back to the mid-1980s. We reveal two independent dynamic ice loss events on the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet margin: from 1985 to 1993 and 2005 to 2010, which were separated by limited mass changes. Our results suggest that the ice mass changes in this sector were primarily caused by short-lived dynamic ice loss events rather than changes in the surface mass balance. This finding challenges predictions about the future response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to increasing global temperatures. Global warming is predicted to have a profound impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet and its contribution to global sea-level rise. Recent mass loss in the northwest of Greenland has been substantial. Using aerial photographs, we produced digital elevation models and extended the time record of recent observed marginal dynamic thinning back to the mid-1980s. We reveal two independent dynamic ice loss events on the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet margin: from 1985 to 1993 and 2005 to 2010, which were separated by limited mass changes. Our results suggest that the ice mass changes in this sector were primarily caused by short-lived dynamic ice loss events rather than changes in the surface mass balance. This finding challenges predictions about the future response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to increasing global temperatures.

An extreme precipitation event that influenced almost the whole polar plateau of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, is investigated using Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System archive data. For the first time a high-resolution atmospheric model especially adapted for polar regions was used for such a study in Dronning Maud Land. The outstanding event of 21–25 February 2003 was connected to a strong north-westerly flow, caused by a blocking high above eastern Dronning Maud Land, that persisted for several days and brought unusually large levels of moisture to the Antarctic Plateau. This weather situation is most effective in bringing precipitation to high-altitude interior Antarctic ice-core drilling sites, where precipitation in the form of diamond dust usually dominates. However, a few such precipitation events per year can account for a large percentage of the annual accumulation, which can cause a strong bias in ice-core data. Additionally, increased temperatures and wind speeds during these events need to be taken into account for the correct climatic interpretation of ice cores. A better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of intermittent precipitation in the interior of Antarctica in past and future climates is necessary for both palaeoclimatological studies and estimates of future sea-level change.

A comprehensive description is presented of the surface layer (SL) wind, temperature and humidity climate and the resulting sensible and latent heat exchange in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet. Over a four-year period (August 2003–August 2007), data were collected using three automatic weather stations (AWS) located along the 67°N latitude circle at 6, 38 and 88 km from the ice sheet margin at elevations of 490, 1020 and 1520 m asl. In the lower ablation zone, surface momentum roughness peaks in summer, which enhances the mechanical generation of turbulence in the stable SL. The SL is stably stratified throughout the year: in summer, the surface temperature is maximised at the melting point and therefore remains colder than the overlying air, in winter the surface is cooled by a radiation deficit. The resulting downward directed sensible heat flux cools the SL air. Humidity gradients between surface and air are small in winter, in response to low temperatures, but peak in spring, when the surface is not yet melting and can freely increase its temperature. This is especially true for the lower ablation zone, where winter accumulation is small so that the dark ice surface is already exposed at the onset of spring, allowing significant convection and sublimation. During summer, when the surface is melting, the sensible heat flux becomes directed towards the surface and sublimation changes into deposition in the lower ablation zone. The SL wind climate is dominated by katabatic forcing, with high directional constancy in summer and winter. The katabatic forcing is important to maintain turbulent exchange in the stable Greenland SL. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

The glacial history of Antarctica during the most recent Milankovitch cycles is poorly constrained relative to the Northern Hemisphere. As a consequence, the contribution of mass changes in the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea-level change and the prediction of its future evolution remain uncertain. The process of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) represents the ongoing response of the solid Earth to the Late-Pleistocene deglaciation and, therefore, provides information about Antarctic glacial history. Moreover, insufficient knowledge of GIA hampers the determination of present-day changes in the Antarctic mass balance through satellite gravity measurements. Previous studies have laid the theoretical foundation for distinguishing between signals of ongoing GIA and contemporary ice mass change through the combination of satellite gravimetry and satellite altimetry. This distinction is made possible by the fact the GIA-induced changes (involving relatively dense rock) will produce a different combination of topography and gravity change than those produced by variations in ice or firn thickness (due to the lower density of these materials); however, no conclusive results have been produced to date. Here we show that, by combining laser altimetry and gravity data from the ICESat and GRACE satellite missions over the period March 2003–March 2008, the GIA contribution can indeed be isolated. The inferred GIA signal over the Antarctic continent, which represents the first result derived from direct observations by satellite techniques, strongly supports Late-Pleistocene ice models derived from glacio-geologic studies. The GIA impact on GRACE-derived estimates of mass balance is found to be 100 ± 67 Gt/yr.

Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation changes, which are used to estimate changes in the mass of the interior regions, are caused by variations in the depth of the firn layer. We quantified the effects of temperature and accumulation variability on firn layer thickness by simulating the 1980–2004 Antarctic firn depth variability. For most of Antarctica, the magnitudes of firn depth changes were comparable to those of observed ice sheet elevation changes. The current satellite observational period (∼15 years) is too short to neglect these fluctuations in firn depth when computing recent ice sheet mass changes. The amount of surface lowering in the Amundsen Sea Embayment revealed by satellite radar altimetry (1995–2003) was increased by including firn depth fluctuations, while a large area of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet slowly grew as a result of increased accumulation.

The depth and density of the Antarctic firn layer is modeled, using a combination of regional climate model output and a steady-state firn densification model. The modeled near-surface climate (temperature, wind speed, and accumulation) and the depth of two critical density levels (550 kg m−3 and 830 kg m−3) agree well with climate and firn density observations selected from >50 Antarctic coring sites (r = 0.90–0.99, p < 0.0001). The wide range of near-surface climate conditions in Antarctica forces a strong spatial variability in the depth and density of the Antarctic firn pack. In the calm, dry, and very cold interior, densification is slow and the firn-layer thickness exceeds 100 m and the firn age at pore close-off 2000 years. In the windier, wetter, and milder coastal zone, densification is more rapid and the firn layer shallower, typically 40–60 m, and younger, typically

Observed estimates of ice losses in Antarctica combined with regional modelling of ice accumulation in the interior suggest that East Antarctica is close to a balanced mass budget, but large losses of ice occur in the narrow outlet channels of West Antarctic glaciers and at the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula.

A 5 year record of data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen, Norway, has been used to calculate the local surface energy and mass balance. The AWS observations cover five mass-balance years with an unusually strong mass deficit on Storbreen. The average energy flux (Q) contributing to melt for the period 2001–06 is 113 W m−2. Of this, the net shortwave radiation flux is the dominant contributor (92 W m−2), followed by the sensible heat flux (20 W m−2) and the latent heat flux (9 W m−2). The net longwave radiation (–6 W m−2) and the subsurface heat flux (–2 W m−2) contribute negatively to the budget. Net radiation thus produces 76% of the melt, while the turbulent fluxes and the subsurface heat flux produce 24% of the total melt. The seasonal mean incoming shortwave radiation is remarkably constant between the years, whereas variations in temperature and reflected shortwave radiation (albedo) explain most of the interannual variation in melt. The modelled ablation compares well with the measured ablation from stake readings. The sensitivity of the energy-balance model was examined by varying the surface roughness length of momentum and the sensitivity of the calculated melt by perturbations of temperature, wind speed and relative humidity.

Strong-wind events occur 10–20 times per year at Kohnen Station, East Antarctica (75°00′S, 0°04′E, 2892 m above sea level), and are often caused by warm-core cyclones in the north-eastern Weddell Sea. An uncommon event occurred in January 2002, when blocking both in the south Atlantic Ocean and in the south Tasman Sea caused a split-up of the circumpolar vortex, and large amounts of heat and moisture were transported onto the Antarctic Plateau. During strong-wind events over the plateau the near-surface temperature can increase by tens of degrees, which is partly caused by the advection of heat, but for an important part by the destruction of the stable temperature-deficit layer by enhanced vertical mixing. The temperature rise is larger during the winter/night than during the summer/day, due to a better-developed temperature deficit. Snowdrift during the January 2002 event linearly increased surface roughness for momentum with friction velocity, for values over about 0.18 m s-1. The cloud cover during the event reduced down-welling solar radiation by 32%, and increased the albedo from about 0.86 to 0.92. Changes in longwave radiation largely cancelled the daytime changes in shortwave radiation, thus net radiation was most affected at night.

Measurement of light intensity transmission was carried out on an ice core S100 from coastal Dronning Maud Land (DML). Ice lenses were observed in digital pictures of the core and recorded as peaks in the light transmittance record. The frequency of ice layer occurrence was compared with climate proxy data (e.g. oxygen isotopes), annual accumulation rate derived from the same ice core, and available meteorological data from coastal stations in DML. The mean annual frequency of melting events remains constant for the last ∼150 years. However, fewer melting features are visible at depths corresponding to approximately 1890–1930 AD and the number of ice lenses increases again after 1930 AD. Most years during this period have negative summer temperature anomalies and positive annual accumulation anomalies. The increase in melting frequency around ∼1930 AD corresponds to the beginning of a decreasing trend in accumulation and an increasing trend in oxygen isotope record. On annual time scales, a relatively good match exists between ice layer frequencies and mean summer temperatures recorded at nearby meteorological stations (Novolazarevskaya, Sanae, Syowa and Halley) only for some years. There is a poor agreement between melt feature frequencies and oxygen isotope records on longer time scales. Melt layer frequency proved difficult to explain with standard climate data and ice core derived proxies. These results suggest a local character for the melt events and a strong influence of surface topography.

This paper focuses on the daily cycle of the surface energy balance and the atmospheric surface layer during a detailed meteorological experiment performed near Kohnen base in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, in January and February 2002. Temperature, specific humidity, wind speed and the turbulent scales of these quantities, exhibit a strong daily cycle. The sensible heat flux cycle has a mean amplitude of ∼8 W m−2, while the latent heat flux has an amplitude of less than 2 W m−2, which is small compared to the amplitude of net radiation (∼ 35 W m−2) and sub-surface heat (∼ 25 W m−2). Between ∼ 9 and 16 h GMT convection occurs due to a slightly unstable atmospheric surface layer. At the end of the afternoon, the wind speed decreases abruptly and the mixed layer is no longer supported by the sensible heat input; the stratification becomes stable. At night a large near-surface wind shear is measured due to the presence of a nocturnal jet, which is likely to be katabatically driven, but can also be the result of an inertial oscillation. No strong daily cycle in wind direction is recorded, since both the katabatic forcing at night and the daytime forcing by the large-scale pressure gradient were directed approximately downslope during the period of measurement.

Output of a 14 year integration with a high-resolution (55 km ×55 km) regional atmospheric climate model is used to study the response of Antarctic near-surface climate to the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the periodical strengthening and weakening of the circumpolar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere. In spite of the relatively short record, wind, temperature and precipitation show widespread and significant AAO-related signals. When the vortex is strong (high AAO index), northwesterly flow anomalies cause warming over the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) and adjacent regions in West Antarctica and the Weddell Sea. In contrast, cooling occurs in East Antarctica, the eastern Ross Ice Shelf and parts of Marie Byrd Land. Most of the annual temperature signal stems from the months March–August. The spatial distribution of the precipitation response to changes in the AAO does not mirror temperature changes but is in first order determined by the direction of flow anomalies with respect to the Antarctic topography. When the vortex is strong (high AAO index), the western AP becomes wetter, while the Ross Ice Shelf, parts of West Antarctica and the Lambert Glacier basin, East Antarctica, become drier.

We use data from four automatic weather stations (AWSs) in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica, to study the surface mass balance and its components. Distinct differences were found between the moisture climates of the high plateau, the katabatic wind zone and the coastal ice shelves: significant undersaturation occurs year-round in the katabatic wind zone, while on the high plateau and on the coastal ice shelf the air is usually close to saturation. In summer, absorption of shortwave radiation at the snow surface enhances surface sublimation at all sites, removing 3-9% of the annual solid precipitation. Significant summer melting is an equally important ablation term near the coast, but vanishes inland. Vertically integrated column drifting-snow sublimation was estimated using two different methods. This process appears to be similar to or greater in magnitude than surface sublimation. Because intervals between significant precipitation events may last as long as several months, sublimation and melt cause extended periods of surface ablation in summer. In summer, all ablation processes together remove 15-56% of the solid precipitation, or 6-27% on an annual basis.