Search

Summary Background Little is known about the effect of changes in mobility at the subcity level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence, which is particularly relevant in Latin America, where substantial barriers prevent COVID-19 vaccine access and non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to mitigation efforts. We aimed to examine the longitudinal associations between population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level across a large number of Latin American cities. Methods In this longitudinal ecological study, we compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, daily confirmed COVID-19 cases, and features of urban and social environments to analyse population mobility and COVID-19 incidence at the subcity level among cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico, from March 2 to Aug 29, 2020. Spatially aggregated mobile phone data were provided by the UN Development Programme in Latin America and the Caribbean and Grandata; confirmed COVID-19 cases were from national government reports and population and socioeconomic factors were from the latest national census in each country. We used mixed-effects negative binomial regression for a time-series analysis, to examine longitudinal associations between weekly mobility changes from baseline (prepandemic week of March 2–9, 2020) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence (lagged by 1–6 weeks) at the subcity level, adjusting for urban environmental and socioeconomic factors (time-invariant educational attainment, residential overcrowding, population density [all at the subcity level], and country). Findings We included 1031 subcity areas, representing 314 Latin American cities, in Argentina (107 subcity areas), Brazil (416), Colombia (82), Guatemala (20), and Mexico (406). In the main adjusted model, we observed an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 2·35 (95% CI 2·12–2·60) for COVID-19 incidence per log unit increase in the mobility ratio (vs baseline) during the previous week. Thus, 10% lower weekly mobility was associated with 8·6% (95% CI 7·6–9·6) lower incidence of COVID-19 in the following week. This association gradually weakened as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from null at a 6-week lag. Interpretation Reduced population movement within a subcity area is associated with a subsequent decrease in COVID-19 incidence among residents of that subcity area. Policies that reduce population mobility at the subcity level might be an effective COVID-19 mitigation strategy, although they should be combined with strategies that mitigate any adverse social and economic consequences of reduced mobility for the most vulnerable groups. Funding Wellcome Trust. Translation For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Obtaining accurate estimates of surface-atmosphere energy exchanges and improved comprehension of the mechanisms generating turbulent fluxes over non-uniform landscapes are both challenging goals and essential for validating numerical weather forecasting modeling. In this work, a large-aperture scintillometer (LAS) was deployed to evaluate the effect of mesoscale sea and valley breezes with respect to diurnal sensible heat flux (H) variability over an urban area close to a coastal bay near the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (MARJ) during the austral summer of 2017–2018 time span. The region is characterized by a densely urbanized environment, surrounded by mountainous relief and bounded by a large ocean bay. The transmitter and the receiver of the LAS system were installed 1955 m apart. Diurnal cycle was divided into four periods according to the local time: dawn (00 a.m. to 6 a.m.), morning (6 a.m. to 12 a.m.), afternoon (12 a.m. to 6 p.m.), and night (6 p.m. to 00 a.m.). The results demonstrated the sensitivity of the LAS to record variations in H over the course of the day, taking into account the corresponding sea and valley breezes and the relative humidity variability. During the morning, when valley breezes are predominant, footprint area shrinks to its smallest size, encompassing an area of approximately 2 km2. On the other side, during afternoon and night time periods, during afternoon and night time periods, the presence of sea breeze jointly with a densely urbanized continental area contribute to promote significant changes in the footprint area ranging from 2.05 to 5.38 km2. The effects of topography are also well captured in the diurnal H cycle once sunset and corresponding shading in the late afternoon abruptly reduces heat-sensible flux. Diurnal variations in footprint shape and area lead to modifications in terms of the mode each type of urban surface will contribute to H, increasing the influence of anthropogenic elements in afternoon and early evening. Complementarily, it is noteworthy to mention that a sensitivity test was performed to assess uncertainties in H estimates for the free convection method, which requires the estimation of an empirical constant b. Variations in this constant introduce larger dispersion in H estimates than potential errors in LAS effective height (Zeff) estimations or temperature measurements. These last results highlight the importance of conducting further evaluations as the one pursued in this study to more rigorously validate the outputs of numerical mesoscale and local hydrometeorological models and remotely sensed products.

This paper aims to present the methodology developed within the Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation (IVA) to climate change component of the Fourth National Communication (4CN) of Brazil. The methodological choice of this 4CN involves the application of the nexus+ integrated approach, based on studies of impacts and vulnerabilities for water, energy, food and socio-environmental securities, in the different in the territories of Brazilian biomes, coastal areas and cities. For each of these securities it were identified the observed impacts; analysis of risk conditions; definition and assessments of integrated analysis of key impacts at territorial level; inventory, selection and analysis of adaption options in the context of Nexus+, identifying synergies and trade-offs. This process made possible an integrated assessment among the conditioning risk factors, impacts and interactions among proposed adaptation options.

BackgroundClimate change and urbanization are rapidly increasing human exposure to extreme ambient temperatures, yet few studies have examined the impact of temperature on mortality across Latin America, where 80% of residents live in urban areas.MethodsWe used distributed lag nonlinear conditional Poisson models to estimate city-specific associations between daily temperatures above (“heat”) and below (“cold”) each city-specific minimum mortality temperature and all-cause mortality, overall and stratified by age and cause of death. We estimated the percentage of total deaths attributable to heat or cold (excess death fraction [EDF]) and the difference in mortality per 1°C higher daily mean temperature above the 95th percentile of observed daily temperature.ResultsWe analyzed data from 326 cities in nine Latin American countries between 2002-2015, representing 15,431,532 deaths from 249 million residents. The EDF of total deaths from heat was 0.67% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58%, 0.74%), and from cold was 5.09% (95% CI 4.64%, 5.47%). EDFs from heat and cold were particularly high among individuals aged 65+ years (0.81% [95% CI 0.75%, 0.86%] and 6.82% [95% CI 6.41%, 7.18%], respectively). The relative risk of death per 1°C increase above the city-specific 95th percentile daily temperature was 1.057 (95% CI 1.046, 1.067).ConclusionsIn Latin American cities, a substantial proportion of deaths are attributable to non-optimal ambient temperatures. Older populations are particularly vulnerable. Marginal increases in observed hot temperatures are associated with steep increases in mortality risk. Projected increases in temperature from climate change may have a substantial impact on mortality.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTLatin America has a large population at risk of urban heat exposure, yet little is known about the linkages between ambient temperature and health in the region. We analyzed over 15 million deaths in 326 Latin American cities to characterize the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality, overall and by age and cause of death. We found that 5.75% of all deaths are associated with non-optimal temperatures, older individuals are particularly vulnerable, and cardiorespiratory deaths are especially affected. A single degree increase (1°C) in daily temperature was associated with a 5.7% higher mortality among hot days, suggesting that projected increases in temperature from climate change may have a substantial impact on mortality.

Background Recent studies highlight the equigenic potential of greenspaces by showing narrower socioeconomic health inequalities in greener areas. However, results to date have been inconsistent and derived from high-income countries. We examined whether urban greenness modifies the associations between area-level education, as a proxy for socioeconomic status, and life expectancy and cause-specific mortality in Latin American cities. Methods We included 28 large cities, >137 million inhabitants, in nine Latin American countries, comprising 671 sub-city units, for 2012–2016. Socioeconomic status was assessed through a composite index of sub-city level education, and greenness was calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index. We fitted multilevel models with sub-city units nested in cities, with life expectancy or log(mortality) as the outcome. Findings We observed a social gradient, with higher levels of education associated with higher life expectancy and lower cause-specific mortality. There was weak evidence supporting the equigenesis hypothesis as greenness differentially modified the association between education and mortality outcomes. We observed an equigenic effect, with doubling magnitudes in the violence-related mortality reduction by education in areas with low greenness compared to medium-high greenness areas among men (16% [95% CI 12%–20%] vs 8% [95% CI 4%–11%] per 1 SD increase in area-level education). However, in contradiction to the equigenesis hypothesis, the magnitude in cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality reduction by education was stronger in areas with medium-high greenness compared to areas with low greenness (6% [95% CI 4%–7%] vs 1% [95% CI -1%–3%] and 5% [95% CI 3%–7%] vs 1% [95% CI -1%–3%] per 1 SD increase in area-level education, in women and men, respectively). Similarly, each 1-SD increase in greenness widened the educational inequality in life expectancy by 0.15 years and 0.20 years, in women and men, respectively. The equigenic effect was not observed in violence-related mortality among women and in mortality due to communicable diseases, maternal, neonatal and nutritional conditions (CMNN). Interpretation Our results confirm socioeconomic health inequalities in Latin American cities and show that the equigenic properties of greenspace vary by health outcome. Although mixed, our findings suggest that future greening policies should account for local social and economic conditions to ensure that greenspaces provide health benefits for all, and do not further exacerbate existing health inequalities in the region. Funding Wellcome Trust (Grant, 205177/Z/16/Z)., Highlights • This study is the first to examine the equigenesis hypothesis of greenspace in Latin America. • Higher education was associated with higher life-expectancy and lower cause-specific mortality. • Education disparities in violence-related mortality were narrower in greener areas. • Greener areas had wider education disparities in life-expectancy and CVD mortality.

COVID-19 has upended travel across the world, disrupting commute patterns, mode choices, and public transit systems. In the United States, changes to transit service and reductions in passenger volume due to COVID-19 are lasting longer than originally anticipated. In this paper we examine the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on individual travel behavior across the United States. We analyze mobility data from Janurary to December 2020 from a sample drawn from a nationwide smartphone-based panel curated by a private firm, Embee Mobile. We combine this with a survey that we administered to that sample in August 2020. Our analysis provides insight into travel patterns and the immediate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on transit riders. We investigate three questions. First, how do transit riders differ socio-demographically from non-riders? Second, how has the travel behavior of transit riders changed due to the pandemic in comparison to non-riders, controlling for other factors? And third, how has this travel behavior varied across different types of transit riders? The travel patterns of transit riders were more significantly disrupted by the pandemic than the travel of non-riders, as measured by the average weekly number of trips and distance traveled before and after the onset of the pandemic. This was calculated using GPS traces from panel member smartphones. Our survey of the panel revealed that of transit riders, 75% reported taking transit less since the pandemic, likely due to a combination of being affected by transit service changes, concerns about infection risk on transit, and trip reductions due to shelter-in-place rules. Less than 10 percent of transit riders in our sample reported that they were comfortable using transit despite COVID-19 infection risk, and were not affected by transit service reductions. Transit riders were also more likely to have changed their travel behavior in other ways, including reporting an increase in walking. However, lower-income transit riders were different from higher-income riders in that they had a significantly smaller reduction in the number of trips and distance traveled, suggesting that these lower-income households had less discretion over the amount of travel they carried out during the pandemic. These results have significant implications for understanding the way welfare has been affected for transportation-disadvantaged populations during the course of the pandemic, and insight into the recovery of U.S. transit systems. The evidence from this unique dataset helps us understand the future effects of the pandemic on transit riders in the United States, either in further recovery from the pandemic with the anticipated effects of mass vaccination, or in response to additional waves of COVID-19 and other pandemics.

Walking for transportation is a common and accessible means of achieving recommended physical activity levels, while providing important social and environmental co-benefits. Even though walking in rapidly growing urban areas has become especially challenging given the increasing dependence on motorised transportation, walking remains a major mode of transportation in Latin American cities. In this paper we aimed to quantify self-reported walking for transportation in Mexico City, Bogota, Santiago de Chile, Sao Paulo, and Buenos Aires, by identifying both walking trips that are conducted entirely on foot and walking events involved in trips mainly conducted on other means of transportation (e.g. private vehicle, public transit) among individuals ≥5-years old. We show how walking-only trips account for approximately 30% trips in the analysed cities, and we evidence how the pedestrian dimension of mobility is largely underestimated if walking that is incidental to other transportation modes is not accounted for: when considering all walking events, we observed an increase between 73% and 217% in daily walking time. As a result, we estimated that between 19% and 25% of residents in these cities meet the WHO physical activity guidelines solely from walking for transportation. The results of the study also suggest that the promotion of public transportation in large Latin American cities can especially help certain population groups achieve the daily recommended levels of physical activity, while among low-income groups accessibility and safety seem to be the key challenges to be addressed.

Virtual audits using Google Street View are an increasingly popular method of assessing neighborhood environments for health and urban planning research. However, the validity of these studies may be threatened by issues of image availability, image age, and variance of image age, particularly in the Global South. This study identifies patterns of Street View image availability, image age, and image age variance across cities in Latin America and assesses relationships between these measures and measures of resident socioeconomic conditions. Image availability was assessed at 530,308 near-road points within the boundaries of 371 Latin American cities described by the SALURBAL (Salud Urbana en America Latina) project. At the subcity level, mixed-effect linear and logistic models were used to assess relationships between measures of socioeconomic conditions and image availability, average image age, and the standard deviation of image age. Street View imagery was available at 239,394 points (45.1%) of the total sampled, and rates of image availability varied widely between cities and countries. Subcity units with higher scores on measures of socioeconomic conditions had higher rates of image availability (OR = 1.11 per point increase of combined index, p < 0.001) and the imagery was newer on average (− 1.15 months per point increase of combined index, p < 0.001), but image capture date within these areas varied more (0.59-month increase in standard deviation of image age per point increase of combined index, p < 0.001). All three assessed threats to the validity of Street View virtual audit studies spatially covary with measures of socioeconomic conditions in Latin American cities. Researchers should be attentive to these issues when using Street View imagery. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s11524-019-00408-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundLittle is known about the impact of changes in mobility at the sub-city level on subsequent COVID-19 incidence or the contribution of mobility to socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 incidence.MethodsWe compiled aggregated mobile phone location data, COVID-19 confirmed cases, and features of the urban and social environments to analyze linkages between population mobility, COVID-19 incidence, and educational attainment at the sub-city level among cities with >100,000 inhabitants in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, and Mexico from March to August 2020. We used mixed effects negative binomial regression to examine longitudinal associations between changes in weekly mobility (lags 1-6 weeks) and subsequent COVID-19 incidence at the sub-city level, adjusting for urban environmental factors.FindingsAmong 1,031 sub-cities representing 314 cities in five Latin American countries, 10% higher weekly mobility was associated with 8.5% (95% CI 7.4% to 9.5%) higher weekly COVID-19 incidence the following week. This association gradually declined as the lag between mobility and COVID-19 incidence increased and was not different from the null at a six-week lag. We found evidence that suggests differences in mobility reductions are a driver of socioeconomic disparities in COVID-19 incidence.InterpretationLower population movement within a sub-city is associated with lower risk of subsequent COVID-19 incidence among residents of that sub-city. Implementing policies that reduce population mobility at the sub-city level may be an impactful COVID-19 mitigation strategy that takes equity into consideration and reduces economic and social disruption at the city or regional level.FundingWellcome Trust

Background Greenness has been found to be associated with reduced mortality and morbidity and improved wellbeing, with recent evidence further linking it to narrower health inequalities. However, results come mostly from high-income countries and thus might not be generalisable to other settings. In this preliminary analysis, we address this gap by examining whether education inequalities in life expectancy in Latin American cities vary by area-level greenness. Methods We used data from the Salud Urbana en America Latina (SALURBAL) study. The analysis sample included 28 large cities in nine Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, and El Salvador), comprising 671 sub-city units (>10 per city), for the period 2012–16. We used sub-city data on life expectancy, education (percentage of residents with high school or university education, as an indicator for socioeconomic status), and greenness (as calculated by the satellite image-derived normalised difference vegetation index). We used multilevel linear models of sub-cities nested within cities, with country fixed effects to predict life expectancy by education, greenness, and their interaction, while accounting for covariates at the city and sub-city levels. Findings Higher education was associated with higher life expectancy in both sexes (men: standardised regression coefficient b=0·51 [95% CI 0·36–0·65]; women: 0·34 [0·23–0·45]), whereas increased area-level greenness was associated with higher life expectancy among men (0·39 [0·03–0·75]). The educational gradient in life expectancy was steeper in greener areas for both sexes (men: b for interaction=0·20 [0·08–0·32]; women: 0·15 [0·05–0·24]). Interpretation Contrary to evidence from high-income countries, our initial results from Latin America suggest education disparities in life expectancy might increase with greater levels of green space. Given the already wide intra-urban inequalities in Latin American cities, and the sparse and unequal distribution of urban green spaces, greening policies need to make a concerted effort to ensure that unequal access to green spaces does not exacerbate existing health inequalities. Funding Wellcome Trust (205177/Z/16/Z).

The built environment of cities is complex and influences social and environmental determinants of health. In this study we, 1) identified city profiles based on the built landscape and street design characteristics of cities in Latin America and 2) evaluated the associations of city profiles with social determinants of health and air pollution. Landscape and street design profiles of 370 cities were identified using finite mixture modeling. For landscape, we measured fragmentation, isolation, and shape. For street design, we measured street connectivity, street length, and directness. We fitted a two-level linear mixed model to assess the association of social and environmental determinants of health with the profiles. We identified four profiles for landscape and four for the street design domain. The most common landscape profile was the “proximate stones” characterized by moderate fragmentation, isolation and patch size, and irregular shape. The most common street design profile was the “semi-hyperbolic grid” characterized by moderate connectivity, street length, and directness. The “semi-hyperbolic grid”, “spiderweb” and “hyperbolic grid” profiles were positively associated with higher access to piped water and less overcrowding. The “semi-hyperbolic grid” and “spiderweb” profiles were associated with higher air pollution. The “proximate stones” and “proximate inkblots” profiles were associated with higher congestion. In conclusion, there is substantial heterogeneity in the urban landscape and street design profiles of Latin American cities. While we did not find a specific built environment profile that was consistently associated with lower air pollution and better social conditions, the different configurations of the built environments of cities should be considered when planning healthy and sustainable cities in Latin America.

Background This study examined the variation in city-level amenable mortality, i.e. mortality due to conditions that can be mitigated in the presence of timely and effective healthcare, in 363 Latin American cities and measured associations between amenable-mortality rates and urban metrics. Methods We used death records from 363 cities with populations of >100 000 people in nine Latin American countries from 2010 to 2016. We calculated sex-specific age-adjusted amenable-mortality rates per 100 000. We fitted multilevel linear models with cities nested within countries and estimated associations between amenable mortality and urban metrics, including population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and socio-economic status. Results Cities in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil had the highest rates of amenable mortality. Overall, >70% of the variability in amenable mortality was due to between-country heterogeneity. But for preventable amenable mortality, those for which the healthcare system can prevent new cases, most of the variability in rates occurred between cities within countries. Population size and fragmentation of urban development were associated with amenable mortality. Higher fragmentation of urban development was associated with lower amenable mortality in small cities and higher amenable mortality in large cities. Population growth and higher city-level socio-economic status were associated with lower amenable mortality. Conclusions Most of the variability in amenable mortality in Latin American cities was due to between-county heterogeneity. However, urban metrics such as population size and growth, fragmentation of urban development and city-level socio-economic status may have a role in the distribution of amenable mortality across cities within countries.

Background: Although neighborhood-level access to food differs by sociodemographic factors, almost all research on neighborhoods and food access has used a single construct of neighborhood context, such as income or race. Neighborhoods possess many interrelated built environment and sociodemographic characteristics, a condition that obscures relationships between neighborhood factors and food access.Methods: To account for the effects of many interrelated aspects of neighborhoods in food access, we developed a generally applicable method that used multiple measures (e.g., population density, mix of land use, and sociodemographic factors) that are easy to obtain to define six neighborhood types in 1993 in the Twin Cities Region, Minnesota. We then used mixed effects regression models to estimate differences in the relative availability of sit-down restaurants and supermarkets in 1993, 2001, and 2011 across the six neighborhood types.Results: We observed a higher relative availability of sit-down restaurants in inner city neighborhoods than in urban, aging suburbs, high-income suburbs, or suburban edge neighborhoods for 2011; we did not observe these same patterns for 1993 or 2001. Using nuanced classification of neighborhood type, we found a complex and increasingly varied distribution of restaurants and food stores.Conclusions: The temporal increase in sit-down restaurants in inner cities may be associated with a higher proportion of residents who eat-away-from-home, which is associated with higher calorie and fat intake.

Researchers have linked neighborhood food availability to the overall frequency of using food outlets without noting if those outlets were within or outside of participants’ neighborhoods. We aimed to examine the association of neighborhood restaurant and food store availability with frequency of use of neighborhood food outlets, and whether such an association was modified by neighborhood street connectivity using a large and diverse population-based cohort of middle-aged U.S. adults. We used self-reported frequency of use of fast food restaurants, sit-down restaurants, and grocery stores in respondents’ home neighborhoods using data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults study Year 20 exam in 2005–2006 (n = 2860; Birmingham, AL; Chicago, IL; Minneapolis, MN; and Oakland, CA) and geographically matched GIS-measured neighborhood-level food resource, street, and U.S. Census data. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to examine the associations of the GIS-measured count of neighborhood fast food restaurants, sit-down restaurants, and grocery stores with self-reported frequency of using neighborhood restaurants and food stores and whether such associations differed by GIS-measured neighborhood street connectivity among those who perceived at least one such food outlet. In multivariate analyses, we observed a positive association between the GIS-measured count of neighborhood sit-down restaurants (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.00–1.04) and the self-reported frequency of using neighborhood sit-down restaurants. We observed no statistically significant association between GIS-measured count of neighborhood fast food restaurants and self-reported frequency of using neighborhood fast food restaurants, nor did we observe a statistically significant association between GIS-measured count of neighborhood grocery stores and self-reported frequency of using neighborhood grocery stores. We observed inverse associations between GIS-measured neighborhood street connectivity and the self-reported frequencies of using neighborhood fast food restaurants (OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.26–0.68) and grocery stores (OR = − 2.26, 95% CI − 4.52 to − 0.01). Neighborhood street connectivity did not modify the association between GIS-measured neighborhood restaurant and food store count and the self-reported frequency of using neighborhood restaurants and food stores. Our findings suggest that, for those who perceived at least one sit-down restaurant in their neighborhood, individuals who have more GIS-measured sit-down restaurants in their neighborhoods reported more frequent use of sit-down restaurants than those whose neighborhoods contain fewer such restaurants. Our results also suggest that, for those who perceived at least one fast food restaurant in their neighborhood, individuals who live in neighborhoods with greater GIS-measured street connectivity reported less use of neighborhood fast food restaurants than those who live in neighborhoods with less street connectivity. The count of neighborhood sit-down restaurants and the connectivity of neighborhood street networks appear important in understanding the use of neighborhood food resources. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s11524-019-00412-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Examples of how environmental susceptibility has a direct impact on the social vulnerability of a population, by affecting both the social and cultural life quality are discussed for the Northeast of Brazil, which is considered to be the poorest region of the country. Several direct and indirect mechanisms associated to soil degradation/desertification are addressed, mainly in relation to the impact they cause to the livelihood such as income, immigration/emigration rate, and mortality. Our purpose is to provide, based on a social vulnerability index, a spatial-temporal analysis of the population dynamics in response to the effects of degradation/desertification and extended periods of drought. The results of this study demonstrated that social vulnerability is mostly dictated by social factors but marginally by environmental factors. This conclusion has an impact on federal public policies designed to reduce social inequality in the region. Keywords: Desertification, Environmental susceptibility, Social vulnerability, Brazilian semi-arid, Public policies

Information about changes in land use and land cover is useful to address issues related to drylands management, as well as to support decision-making related to the sustainable use of soils. Since drylands are frequently affected by accelerated soil erosion, land degradation and desertification associated with vegetation cover losses, constant monitoring of land use and land cover changes are required. However, land use and land cover maps are often not available, making it difficult to monitor degradation. Therefore, in this work, we developed an efficient mapping method to monitor bare soil areas, which are indicative of land degradation in the case of the Northeast of Brazil, using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index images. The proposed methodology was field calibrated and applied to the region using 17-year (2000–2016) NDVI maps, with a spatial resolution of 250 m. Based on bare soil mapping, we estimated the degree of degradation using an index calculated from the persistence and frequency of bare soil during the study period. The results indicated that the degraded areas increased in the period of the study, mainly in areas of pasture and Caatinga. This expansion has been accelerated due to the severe drought that affected the region since 2011.

Routes are a common way through which child pedestrians experience the built environment. However, empirical evidence on route-scale environmental influences on children's walking are scarce and mainly concern home-school itineraries. To address this gap, this study aims to identify environmental influences on children’s route choice, and to explore how these may vary by trip destination and neighborhood type. One hundred and seven children (10–12 year old) living in inner-city and clustered suburban neighborhoods in Rishon LeZion, Israel participated in the study. Participants were instructed to draw the routes along which they regularly walk from their home to four destinations: School, public facility, retail and park. We then compared the attributes of the built environment for the walking trips reported, relative to the trips that would have taken the shortest path along the street, path, and alley network for each origin-destination pair using conditional logistic regression, while adjusting for the correlation across choices, route length, and individual characteristics. Comparisons of chosen and non-chosen routes suggest that routes with fewer intersections are more likely to be selected, if they have fewer intersections but more compact urban form along the route. The ratio of built-to-lot area and distance remained significant, but residential land uses and the walkability index were differentially associated with route choice when analyses were stratified by destination and neighborhood type. Being the first study to explore route choice by both location and destination and given that environmental influences on walking are context specific, this study provides valuable insights on environment-behavior interactions.

Despite the increasing popularity of BRT worldwide, there is a lack of empirical evidence regarding the built environment characteristics that determine BRT ridership. We examine associations between BRT station level demand and built environment attributes for 120 stations in seven Latin American cities. Using direct ridership models, we study whether underlying built environment factors identified using factor analysis and the package of these factors embodied in station “types” identified using cluster analysis were associated with higher ridership. Of the nine factors identified, those describing compactness with dominant multifamily residential uses and stations with public and institutional land uses along the corridor were positively associated with ridership, while factors describing single-family residential development away from the CBD were negatively associated with ridership. Thirteen station types were identified, of which six were associated with BRT ridership. Relevant station types for ridership included those with a high mixture of land uses, the presence of institutional uses and public facilities, major transfer nodes in peripheral areas, and stations with a strong pedestrian environment. Taken together, our findings suggest that the mix and dominance of various land uses around the stop, the location of BRT stations relative to the CBD, the developable land around the station, and the integration of the station to the urban fabric are important characteristics that determine BRT ridership. These insights will help substantiate the case for prioritizing-built environment changes as a means to build more prosperous and sustainable mass transit systems. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd

The hydrology of the Brazilian Pantanal, part of the largest humid tropical area on the planet, follows the rhythm of seasonal floods. The traditional movement of cattle herds in the southern Pantanal is defined by these seasonal flooding patterns, which determine the availability and quality of native-grass pastures throughout the year. Extreme hydrological events, such as prolonged droughts and intense floods, can impact the management of cattle in this region, preventing access to, circulation within, and occupation of some grazing areas. This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation, the river levels in this region from 1974 to 2012, and assessed the effects on the evolution of local beef cattle stocks. We integrated the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and river levels for six gaging stations and standardized these variables using standard deviation and linear trends at annual and seasonal scales. Additionally, we integrated the results with an analysis of the livestock production within the region’s municipalities. Regional precipitation was highly variable, including an almost decadal oscillation, with positive trends in parts of the 1970s and 1980s and a negative trend since the 1990s. River levels in the northern portion of the basin and in the Paraguay River corresponded to those dynamics while presenting marked anomalies. Simultaneously, river levels in the eastern Pantanal changed from negative to positive anomalies, which were more intense in wet months. Both the eastern and western patterns reflected the occurrence of extreme El Nino–Southern Oscillation events and other large-scale climatic patterns. In intra-annual terms, the variability of the river levels during the flooded months at four of the six gaging stations studied suggests an early onset or delay of the flood season, as well as positive anomalies in the ebbing months and in the southeast. Given the lags in flow between different rivers in the region, this behavior draws attention to dam construction and intensification of localized flooding in the southern areas, which may impact everyday life and cattle management. For example, from 2009 to 2012, two severe droughts and an extreme flood significantly impacted livestock numbers in the region. Overall, herd numbers decreased (increased) in humid (dry) periods, including a reduction of over 1 million head during the flood of 1973–1974. The differential level patterns at annual, wet season, and dry season between the eastern and western sides of the Pantanal modulate the livestock activities, where the strong negative anomalies of the levels along the eastern side seem to force the diminution of beef cattle stock at local regions in different intensities in annual scale. This reinforces the effects of climate variability and extreme hydrological events on the management and dynamics of the beef cattle industry and market in Brazil.

Objectives To examine active travel and public transportation use among U.S. older adults and the built environment characteristics associated with them. Methods Total active travel, public transportation trips, travel purpose diversity, total and maximum distance traveled for older adults (>= 65 years) relative to middle age adults (45–64 years) as reported in the 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) were compared using linear regression models and logistic regression models. Results Overall, adults over 65 years of age had 3.3 trips and total travel distance of 20.6 miles per day. Active travel and daily transport trips declined from younger to older age groups. Among the older adults, the daily transport varied by a number of characteristics. The association of built environment on older adults’ transport differed by the specific environmental characteristics and travel modes. Discussion Existing transportation facilities and policies need to be adjusted to meet the challenge. Our study has a potential to contribute to the design of effective interventions that enhance health and quality of life for the burgeoning aging population in the U.S.

This longitudinal study described park usage and assessed the contribution of parks to moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) among adolescent girls. High school girls from California (n = 131) and Minnesota (n = 134) wore a global positioning system (GPS) monitor and accelerometer for 6 consecutive days at two time points, one year apart. Park visits were classified by linking the GPS, accelerometer, and park and built environment data around home and school locations into a geographic information system. At baseline, 20% of girls visited a park at least once (mean 0.1 times/day), which was similar one year later (19%, mean 0.1 times/day). Girls lived a mean Euclidean distance of 0.2 miles to the nearest park at both times. Among all park visits, the mean Euclidean distance of the park visited was 4.1 (baseline) and 3.9 miles (follow-up). The average duration of park visits was higher at baseline (63.9 minutes) compared to follow-up (38.4 minutes). On days when a park was visited, MVPA was higher than on days when a park was not visited. On average, 1.9% (baseline) and 2.8% (follow-up) of MVPA occurred in parks. In this study, parks were an under-used resource for adolescent girls, particularly for MVPA.

Geodiversity is a determinant of mining patterns, because its nature defines the interaction with humans, type of exploitation, and, consequently, ecosystem services (ES) of the final landscape. The environmental recovery obligations defined in the legislation serve as a good guidance, but sand mining companies are not always able to finalize their activity entirely and to comply with the laws. To take this into account, the present study was developed with an objective of analyzing the changes observed in the ES after 70 years of sand exploitation in the Paraiba do Sul River Valley, Brazil. The services of the floodplain soil formation and associated components, such as the quality and quantity of water and refuges provided by the riparian forest, are highlighted in this study. To evaluate the different ESs modified by mining, socio-environmental variables were studied, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method was applied to assign significance to each variable in the phase of closing activities, thus creating a compound index for ES evaluation at mine closure. The closure conditions were analyzed against the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 8, 9, and 11. The results showed that the companies are small, that they met the legislation in equal criteria of environmental rehabilitation, and that they were induced to a closure standard, reflecting the reforestation with native forest variable, related to the ES of provisioning of habitat to wild fauna. However, the mine facilities variable, associated with the cultural ES of recreation, predominated, because the buildings and access roads were preserved, even though the movable assets were demobilized quickly. It was concluded from the analysis that the scenario of the ES at mine closure is generally linked to geodiversity, company size, and compliance with legal duties.

Highlights • Vegetation greenness is negatively but insignificantly associated with dengue incidence. • This association is stronger in socioeconomically vulnerable areas. • Improved vegetation quality has the potential to reduce dengue risk. • Openly accessible, coarse resolution environmental data have limitations in environmental health studies., Being a Re-Emerging Infectious Disease, dengue causes 390 million cases globally and is prevalent in many urban areas in South America. Understanding the fine-scale relationships between dengue incidence and environmental and socioeconomic factors can guide improved disease prevention strategies. This ecological study examines the association between dengue incidence and satellite-based vegetation greenness in 3826 census tracts nested in 474 neighborhoods in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during the 2010 dengue epidemic. To reduce potential bias in the estimated dengue-greenness association, we adjusted for socioeconomic vulnerability, population density, building height and density, land cover composition, elevation, weather patterns, and neighborhood random effects. We found that vegetation greenness was negatively associated with dengue incidence in a univariate model, and this association attenuated after controlling for additional covariates. The dengue-greenness association was modified by socioeconomic vulnerability: while a positive association was observed in the least vulnerable census tracts, the association was negative in the most vulnerable areas. Using greenness as a proxy for vegetation quality, our results show the potential of vegetation management in reducing dengue incidence, particularly in socioeconomically vulnerable areas. We also discuss the role of water infrastructure, sanitation services, and tree cover in lowering dengue risk.

The constant changes in the landscape significantly change the local dynamic not only in the environmental context, but also socio-economic. The Vale do Paraiba paulista is marked by great changes linked to economic cycles Brazilians who moved the region into a vast mosaic of grasslands, forest fragments and urban area. Temporal studies about use and land cover allow to observe these changes and assess the impacts generated by them. Is the replacement of extensive areas of Atlantic forest to the Eucalypt monoculture that has high development and is constantly expanding in the Valley. Such a conversion of use has consequences in the Region, such as causing forest fragmentation on biodiversity loss, water and soil quality, increasing the rates of erosion. Analyses like these are important for the management of natural resources. The possibility of developing simulation scenarios for change of use and coverage of the Earth is crucial for a sustainable and efficient public management. Targeting these issues the present study seeks to design future scenarios taking into consideration different social, economic and environmental issues, from analysis of the dynamics of expansion of forestry in Vale do Paraiba. The scenarios created can be classified as "current" that maintains the same standards of changes observed period (2000-2005); "Optimistic" that reduces conversion rates for forestry and pasture, with consequent increase of the most vegetated areas; and "Pessimistic" that deforestation rates lever from the growth of eucalyptus and pasture crops. The development of future scenarios of 2010 to 2050 in spatial modeling platform proved effective, showing trends and pre provisions land use transitions being possible to use the results to environmental planning for sustainability and improved management of natural resources and the development of economic activities.

O Codigo Florestal de 2012 manteve as areas de preservacao, no entanto a delimitacao foi alterada, principalmente, da Area de Preservacao Permanente no topo de morros. A Resolucao Inea de 2014, instituida para estado fluminense mantem os parâmetros, mas altera a definicao da base do morro. O objetivo do presente consiste em mapear a APP no topo de morros de acordo com dispositivos legais, com avaliacao da extensao e conectividade das areas no alto e medio curso da bacia hidrografica do rio Sao Joao, RJ. Conforme o Codigo Florestal, foram delimitadas 60 APP, com o total de 553ha, distribuidas sem conectividade nas maiores altitudes. Enquanto, de acordo com a Resolucao Inea, foram mapeadas 324 APP, totalizando 8.420ha, localizadas ao longo dos divisores d’agua estabelecendo conectividade. Conclui-se que a alteracao nos parâmetros de delimitacao influencia na extensao e conectividade da APP e, por isto, devem avaliados se atendem as funcoes ambientais estabelecidas no Codigo Florestal. The Brazilian Forest Code implemented in 2012 kept the definition of preservation areas established in the former Forest Code (1965) but changed the delimitation parameters especially for Permanent Preservation Area (PPA) on the top of hills. In Rio de Janeiro, The State Environmental Institute (Inea) established a Resolution in 2014 to guide PPA delimitation in the state. This resolution follows most of the policies implemented by the Brazilian Forest Code of 2012 but defined new parameters for determining the hills bases. This study's goal consists on mapping the PPA on top of hill according to both legal devices and assessing the extension and connectivity of the preservation areas on Sao Joao river basin, RJ. Following the Forest Code of 2012, 60 fragments of PPA were delimited, with 553 ha of total area and distributed without any connectivity on higher altitudes. Meanwhile, following Resolution of 2014, 324 fragments of PPA were mapped, totalizing 8,420 ha, situated along the watershed and middles altitudes and enhancing connectivity. We conclude that the alteration of the delimitation parameters has an influence on the extension and connectivity of the PPA on top of hills. Our results suggest the need of deeper evaluations in order to guarantee that methodologies for PPA delimitation on top of hills embodied in legal instruments meet the environment functions clearly established for PPA in the 2012 Brazilian Forest Code. Keywords: Forest Code, Protected areas, Forest fragmentation, Geoprocessing

This study examines how park use may be associated with perceived park proximity, neighborhood-built environment and perceived social disorder in Latin American cities. The study uses self-reported data from the 2016 CAF survey, including 7,970 urban residents from 11 cities across Latin America. Results show positive graded associations between perceived park proximity and use, holding all others constant. Additional factors that were found to be associated with park use are neighborhood formality and related built-environment characteristics, including paved streets and sidewalks. Park use was mostly unrelated to perceived social disorder, with the exception of indigence, with which it is was positively associated. Stronger associations between park proximity and use were observed among those who reported higher prevalence of indigence or begging in their household block. These findings stress the importance of perceived park proximity in enhancing their use in urban Latin America, and challenge the role of social disorder and crime as a barrier for park use., Highlights • Park proximity is associated with park use in a dose-response relationship. • Park use is less prevalent in informal compared to formal neighborhoods. • Park use is more prevalent in areas with paved streets and sidewalks. • Park use is mostly unrelated to neighborhood social disorder conditions. • Park use increases with the combined effects of indigence and high park proximity.

Summary Background Latin America is one of the most unequal regions in the world, but evidence is lacking on the magnitude of health inequalities in urban areas of the region. Our objective was to examine inequalities in life expectancy in six large Latin American cities and its association with a measure of area-level socioeconomic status. Methods In this ecological analysis, we used data from the Salud Urbana en America Latina (SALURBAL) study on six large cities in Latin America (Buenos Aires, Argentina; Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Santiago, Chile; San Jose, Costa Rica; Mexico City, Mexico; and Panama City, Panama), comprising 266 subcity units, for the period 2011–15 (expect for Panama city, which was for 2012–16). We calculated average life expectancy at birth by sex and subcity unit with life tables using age-specific mortality rates estimated from a Bayesian model, and calculated the difference between the ninth and first decile of life expectancy at birth (P90–P10 gap) across subcity units in cities. We also analysed the association between life expectancy at birth and socioeconomic status at the subcity-unit level, using education as a proxy for socioeconomic status, and whether any geographical patterns existed in cities between subcity units. Findings We found large spatial differences in average life expectancy at birth in Latin American cities, with the largest P90–P10 gaps observed in Panama City (9·8 years for men and 11·2 years for women), Santiago (8·9 years for men and 17·7 years for women), and Mexico City (10·9 years for men and 9·4 years for women), and the narrowest in Buenos Aires (4·4 years for men and 5·8 years for women), Belo Horizonte (4·0 years for men and 6·5 years for women), and San Jose (3·9 years for men and 3·0 years for women). Higher area-level socioeconomic status was associated with higher life expectancy, especially in Santiago (change in life expectancy per P90–P10 change unit-level of educational attainment 8·0 years [95% CI 5·8–10·3] for men and 11·8 years [7·1–16·4] for women) and Panama City (8·0 years [4·4–11·6] for men and 10·0 years [4·2–15·8] for women). We saw an increase in life expectancy at birth from east to west in Panama City and from north to south in core Mexico City, and a core-periphery divide in Buenos Aires and Santiago. Whereas for San Jose the central part of the city had the lowest life expectancy and in Belo Horizonte the central part of the city had the highest life expectancy. Interpretation Large spatial differences in life expectancy in Latin American cities and their association with social factors highlight the importance of area-based approaches and policies that address social inequalities in improving health in cities of the region. Funding Wellcome Trust.

Highlights • Standardized bicycling collision rates have decreased in Bogotá in the last 7 years. • Seven main geographic areas of bicycling risk were identified in Bogotá. • Risk factors associated with bicycling mortality differ by sex. • Findings support policy-making to implement targeted interventions to improve safety. • Methodology based on open-data sources to permit replication and monitoring., Road safety research in low- and middle-income countries is limited, even though ninety percent of global road traffic fatalities are concentrated in these locations. In Colombia, road traffic injuries are the second leading source of mortality by external causes and constitute a significant public health concern in the city of Bogotá. Bogotá is among the top 10 most bike-friendly cities in the world. However, bicyclists are one of the most vulnerable road-users in the city. Therefore, assessing the pattern of mortality and understanding the variables affecting the outcome of bicyclists’ collisions in Bogotá is crucial to guide policies aimed at improving safety conditions. This study aims to determine the spatiotemporal trends in fatal and nonfatal collision rates and to identify the individual and contextual factors associated with fatal outcomes. We use confidence intervals, geo-statistics, and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) corrected for spatial correlation. The collisions’ records were taken from Bogotá’s Secretariat of Mobility, complemented with records provided by non-governmental organizations (NGO). Our findings indicate that from 2011 to 2017, the fatal bicycling collision rates per bicyclists’ population have remained constant for females while decreasing 53 % for males. Additionally, we identified high-risk areas located in the west, southwest, and southeast of the city, where the rate of occurrence of fatal events is higher than what occurs in other parts of the city. Finally, our results show associated risk factors that differ by sex. Overall, we find that fatal collisions are positively associated with factors including collisions with large vehicles, the absence of dedicated infrastructure, steep terrain, and nighttime occurrence. Our findings support policy-making and planning efforts to monitor, prioritize, and implement targeted interventions aimed at improving bicycling safety conditions while accounting for gender differences.

Background Exposure to particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major risk factor for morbidity and mortality. Yet few studies have examined patterns of population exposure and investigated the predictors of PM2.5 across the rapidly growing cities in lower- and middle-income countries. Objectives Characterize PM2.5 levels, describe patterns of population exposure, and investigate urban factors as predictors of PM2.5 levels. Methods We used data from the Salud Urbana en America Latina/Urban Health in Latin America (SALURBAL) study, a multi-country assessment of the determinants of urban health in Latin America, to characterize PM2.5 levels in 366 cities comprising over 100,000 residents using satellite-derived estimates. Factors related to urban form and transportation were explored. Results We found that about 172 million or 58% of the population studied lived in areas with air pollution levels above the defined WHO-AQG of 10 μg/m3 annual average. We also found that larger cities, cities with higher GDP, higher motorization rate and higher congestion tended to have higher PM2.5. In contrast cities with higher population density had lower levels of PM2.5. In addition, at the sub-city level, higher intersection density was associated with higher PM2.5 and more green space was associated with lower PM2.5. When all exposures were examined adjusted for each other, higher city per capita GDP and higher sub-city intersection density remained associated with higher PM2.5 levels, while higher city population density remained associated with lower levels. The presence of mass transit was also associated with lower PM2.5 after adjustment. The motorization rate also remained associated with PM2.5 and its inclusion attenuated the effect of population density. Discussion These results show that PM2.5 exposures remain a major health risk in Latin American cities and suggest that urban planning and transportation policies could have a major impact on ambient levels., Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image, Highlights • Cities in Latin America with higher GDP, motorization rate, and congestion have higher PM2.5. • Cities in Latin America with higher population density and green space have lower levels of PM2.5. • Intersection density and mass transit infrastructure also impact pollution levels. • Urban planning and transportation policies may have a major impact on air pollution.

Background Urban design features are often studied in relation to health and behavioural outcomes. They can also have major implications for environmental outcomes. However, the impact of these features on both health and environmental outcomes (co-benefits) is rarely examined. We investigated how urban landscape and street design profiles are related to jointly occurring health and environmental outcomes in Latin America cities. Methods We used data from the Salud Urbana en America Latina (SALURBAL) project, which has compiled and harmonised data on built environment, environmental exposures, and health outcomes for 370 cities in 11 countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Peru. Eight city profiles were identified using finite mixture models. Four urban-landscape profiles were defined measuring patch (contiguous area of urban development) fragmentation, shape, and isolation, and four street-design profiles were defined using street connectivity, length, and directness. Multilevel regression models were used to assess associations between the city profiles and several health and environmental outcomes. Findings Our preliminary results show that compared with the urban-landscape profile labelled scattered pixels (comprising low fragmentation, compact shape, and high isolation), the proximate-stones profile (moderate fragmentation, irregular shape, and moderate isolation) had significantly higher levels of PM2·5 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and the proximate-inkblots profile (moderate-to-high fragmentation, complex shape, and moderate isolation) had significantly higher levels of violence-related deaths. Compared with the labyrinthine street design profile (low connectivity, moderate length, and moderate directness), the semi-hyperbolic grid (moderate connectivity, moderate length, and moderate directness) and spiderweb (high connectivity, low length, and moderate directness) profiles had significantly higher levels of PM2·5 and NO2, whereas the hyperbolic grid profile (moderate connectivity, high length, and low directness) had significantly higher levels of NO2 and lower levels of obesity. Interpretation Identifying how city profiles are related to environment and health outcomes can shed light on the urban policies that could have the greatest environment and health co-benefits. Funding The SALURBAL/Urban Health in Latin America project is funded by the Wellcome Trust (205177/Z/16/Z).

A região Nordeste do Brasil é marcada fortemente pelas desigualdades regionais apresentando altos índices de analfabetismo, baixa renda, migração para os grandes centros urbanos, exclusão social, entre outros. Além da desigualdade cultural e econômica, a região é afetada com a degradação/desertificação da terra exacerbada por fatores antrópicos. O entendimento das mudanças na paisagem e como essas alterações impactam a vulnerabilidade da população é um desafio, pois essas alterações ocorrem em amplas escalas espaciais e temporais. Assim, o desenvolvimento de uma ferramenta capaz de integrar informações físicas, ambientais e socioeconômicas, em diferentes escalas e resoluções torna-se essencial para a compreensão do processo. Mais importante que o desenvolvimento da ferramenta é saber analisar de forma conjunta as informações geradas. Dessa forma, este trabalho visa descrever a metodologia em desenvolvimento no Sistema de Alerta Precoce contra Seca e Desertificação ”“ SAP, bem como analisar, por meio de cruzamento de informações relacionadas à degradação/desertificação do solo, a vulnerabilidade da população ante a essas alterações. O objetivo é facilitar e agilizar a análise dos tomadores de decisão de maneira a permitir tomadas de decisões em áreas onde ambos os processos estejam ocorrendo de forma mais acelerada.

Despite the growing popularity of bus rapid transit (BRT), little is known about its impacts on land development. In this paper we examine the land development impacts of BRT in Bogota and Quito, two cities that have made a variety of BRT investments over the last two decades and with Curitiba, they have been world pioneers of BRT. Relying on 10 years of data, we use a quasi-experimental research design to quantitatively examine changes in land development in both cities. Outcomes include land market characteristics such as built area added per year (both cities), units added (Quito), building permits issued (Bogota), changes in land use (Bogota), and property price changes (Quito). We compare how outcomes vary over time for treatment corridors – those that received BRT service at various points throughout the decade, relative to control corridors in both cities, and in Bogota also relative to a road-expansion corridor. In Bogota, control corridors were corridors slated to get BRT but that had not received any BRT service yet, whereas in Quito they are adjoining areas. Results reveal heterogeneous impacts in both cities. Although increased building activity tends to concentrate in treatment areas, comparisons with controls suggest that the impacts are context dependent. Some stations showed very high development activity and others less so. Development induced along the road extension in Bogota was considerable. In both cities, the strongest effects appear to concentrate in end-of-line terminals and stops built in the early 2000s. Whether BRT stimulates land development depends on institutional factors such as developer appetite, market conditions, land availability, and land regulations.

While increasing evidence suggests an association between physical infrastructure in neighbourhoods and health outcomes, relatively little research examines how neighbourhoods change physically over time and how these physical improvements are spatially distributed across populations. This paper describes the change over 25 years (1985–2010) in bicycle lanes, off-road trails, bus transit service, and parks, and spatial clusters of changes in these domains relative to neighbourhood sociodemographics in four U.S. cities that are diverse in terms of geography, size and population. Across all four cities, we identified increases in bicycle lanes, off-road trails, and bus transit service, with spatial clustering in these changes that related to neighbourhood sociodemographics. Overall, we found evidence of positive changes in physical infrastructure commonly identified as supportive of physical activity. However, the patterning of infrastructure change by sociodemographic change encourages attention to the equity in infrastructure improvements across neighbourhoods.

The MHD-INPE model was applied in the Ji-Parana Basin, a 30 000 km2 catchment located in the southwest of the Amazon Basin which has lost more than 50% of its forest since the 1980s, to simulate land use and land cover change impacts on runoff generation process and how they are related to basin topography. Simulation results agree with observational studies in the sense that fast response processes are significant in sub-basins with steep slopes while in basins with gentle topography, the impacts are most visible in slow-response hydrological processes. On the other hand, the model is not able to capture the dependence of LUCC impacts on spatial scales. These discrepancies are probably associated with limitations in the spatial representation of heterogeneities within the model, which become more relevant at larger scales. We also tested the hypothesis that secondary forest growth should be able to compensate the decrease in evapotranspiration due to forest–cropland or forest–grassland conversion...

Study region: The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. Study focus: We analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014. These data, together with flood mapping derived from remote sensing images, were used to understand the dynamics of the Llanos during the three flood events. New hydrological insights for the region: The results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region. As a previous study suggested, the dynamics of the floods are controlled by an exogenous process, created by the flood wave originating in the Andes piedmont that travels through the Mamoré River; and by an endogenous process, which is the runoff originating in the Llanos. Our study showed that the first process is evident only at the initial phase of the floods, and although important for attenuating the rising flood wave, it is of lesser importance compared to the endogenous process. We conclude that the endogenous process controls the magnitude and duration of major floods. Keywords: Flood dynamics, Wetlands, Remote sensing, Llanos de Moxos

Increasing demand for water is one of the most challenging problems that human societies face today and has encouraged new studies to examine water security and water management. Seeking to discuss this important issue in the Brazilian context, we analyzed the impacts of urban expansion on water security in a basin located in the most populated region of Brazil. To quantify increased water demand, we combined urban sprawl and regional population increase projections. In this context, our study contributes to discussions on water security by addressing the importance of integration between water and urban planning. Simulations indicate good performance in reproducing actual water system conditions. The finding demonstrates that urban expansion in the region is mainly driven by road proximity. Urban occupation is projected to increase in 170% by 2050, increasing water demands for domestic use in 38%. Results indicate the feasibility of including landscape and socioeconomic constrains in order to obtain potential domestic water demand scenarios by using land use and land cover change modelling to assess urban expansion and population growth. For the study region, our findings suggest that although urban sprawl increases water demand, urban supply will not be compromised given the large volume of available water in the basin. However, the indirect consequences of urban sprawl, such as industrialization and agricultural intensification, may compromise the quality of this resource and require better water use management in the region.

Compact, diverse, walkable, and well-integrated development around mass transit has been shown to increase transit ridership, balance passenger flows, promote economic development, and improve quality of life. Developing station area typologies constitutes an important step in the planning and implementation of land development oriented toward transit. These typologies should reflect local priorities and market conditions, avoid a one-size-fits-all approach to station area development, and stimulate conversations regarding the roles transit-focused development can play in regional development strategies. This study develops an empirically based station area typology based on four key domains—namely, place, location, integration, and value—comprising 19 variables. We use these domains to identify ten emerging station area types in Seoul, Korea, 2015. In doing so, we demonstrate that these four domains vary according to station area type and can thus be used to distinguish between stations. When compared with station ridership, results show that station area types with a high concentration of jobs (office and retail) and a central location are associated with significantly higher metro ridership. The variety of station area characteristics and types suggests that station areas play varied and changing roles, emphasizing the need to consider diversity in development policy design.

Reliable and stable environmental audit instruments are needed to successfully identify the physical and social attributes that may influence physical activity. This study described the reliability and stability of the PIN3 environmental audit instrument in both urban and rural neighborhoods. Four randomly sampled road segments in and around a one-quarter mile buffer of participants’ residences from the Pregnancy, Infection, and Nutrition (PIN3) study were rated twice, approximately 2 weeks apart. One year later, 253 of the year 1 sampled roads were re-audited. The instrument included 43 measures that resulted in 73 item scores for calculation of percent overall agreement, kappa statistics, and log-linear models. For same-day reliability, 81% of items had moderate to outstanding kappa statistics (kappas ≥ 0.4). Two-week reliability was slightly lower, with 77% of items having moderate to outstanding agreement using kappa statistics. One-year stability had 68% of items showing moderate to outstanding agreement using kappa statistics. The reliability of the audit measures was largely consistent when comparing urban to rural locations, with only 8% of items exhibiting significant differences (α

Although bus rapid transit (BRT) has become a popular transportation innovation worldwide, little is known about the built environment around the stops of these systems. A typology of urban development around 81 BRT stops in 7 cities in Latin America was developed and their daily BRT ridership examined. Primary and secondary data collected around the stops were the basis for factor and cluster analyses. Ten stop types were identified, with some types including attributes consistent with expectations of transit-oriented development areas. Other stops captured conditions prevalent in many cities in Latin America: mixed land uses, informal housing distant from activity nodes, large commercial developments, and a relative absence of green spaces open to the public. Confirming expectations, stop types with a higher transit orientation were more likely to have higher ridership than other stops such as those burdened by incompatible land uses and barriers to station access. © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor and Francis Group.

Objective Bicycle use for commuting is being encouraged not only to address physical inactivity, but also vehicular congestion, air pollution and climate change. The current study aimed to ascertain the urban environmental correlates and determinants of bicycle use for commuting (bicycle commuting) among the working or studying population in Barcelona, Spain. Methods Adults ( n = 769; 52% females) recruited whilst commuting within Barcelona (Spain) responded to a comprehensive telephone survey concerning their travel behaviour. Based upon responses collected from June 2011 to May 2012, participants were categorised into four groups: frequent bicyclists, infrequent bicyclists, willing non-bicyclists, and unwilling non-bicyclists. The determinants of frequency and willingness (propensity) to commute by bicycle were assessed by multinomial logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders and covariates. Results The number of public bicycle stations surrounding the home address and amount of greenness surrounding the work/study address were significant positive determinants of bicycle commuting propensity. On the other hand, the number of public transport stations surrounding the home address and elevation of the work/study address were significant negative determinants of bicycle commuting propensity. Individual age, education level, gender, nationality, physical activity level and commute distance significantly affected this propensity. Conclusion Greater availability of public bicycle stations and higher levels of urban greenness may increase bicycle use by adults commuting within a city such as Barcelona, Spain. Electrically-assisted public bicycles may address the challenge of elevation, making this system a more competitive mode against traditional motorised public transport.

Study region The Tapajos Basin is an important Amazon tributary affected by human activities with great potential for water conflicts. The basin, as others within the Amazon region, is receiving a number of hydropower plants, among them the Teles Pires plant, projected to operate in 2015. Study focus Hydrological impacts due to climate change affect human activities, such as hydroelectric generation, and should be carefully studied for better planning of water management. In this study, we assess climate change impacts by applying the MHD-INPE hydrological model using several climate models projections as inputs. The impact assessment consisted of statistical shifts of precipitation and discharge. Energy production in a projected hydropower plant was assessed through the development of annual power duration curves for each projection, also considering its design and structural limitations. New hydrological insights for the region The high inter-model variability in the climate projections drives a high variability in the projected hydrological impacts. Results indicate an increase of basin's sensitivity to climate change and vulnerability of water exploitation. Uncertainties prevent the identification of a singular optimal solution for impacts assessment. However, exploratory analysis of the plant design robustness for hydropower generation show a reduction in the energy production even under projections of increased discharge, due to plant capacity limitations. This is valuable information for stakeholders to decide about energy production strategies.

Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country’s growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Because of evidences that climate change impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover change caused by deforestation could affect the river’s hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a large-scale hydrological model for the period from 1970–1990 and analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011–2099. Although results show variability among models, consensus scenarios indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the basin.

Assessing vulnerability and potential impacts associated with extreme discharges requires an accurate topographic description in order to estimate the extension of flooded areas. However, in most populated regions, topographic data obtained by in-situ measurements is not available. In this case, digital elevation models derived from remote sensing date are usually applied. Moreover, this digital elevation models have intrinsic errors that introduce bigger uncertainty in results than the associated to hydrological projections. On the other hand, estimations of flooded areas through remote sensing images provide accurate information, which could be used for the construction of river level-flooded area relationships regarding vulnerability assessment. In this work, this approach is applied for the city of Porto Velho in the Brazilian Amazonia to assess potential vulnerability to floods associated with climate change projections. The approach is validated using census data, provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and information about socio-economical injuries associated to historical floods, provided by the Brazilian Civil Defence. Hydrological projections under climate change are carried out using several downscaling of climate projections as inputs in a hydrological model. Results show more accurate estimation of flood impacts than the obtained using digital elevation models derivate from remote sensing data. This reduces uncertainties in the assessment of vulnerability to floods associated with climate change in the region.

from 1986 to 2010. In this region is situated the most important and largest extension of reminiscent of Mata Atlântica Biome reminiscent. This biome has been one the most exploited Brazilian biome since 1500, when Brazilian colonization begun. To achieve this goal, we use the GIS “SPRING” and images from Landsat 5 Satellite, TM sensor from 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, distributed by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research - INPE. The non-supervised-classification was applied to images in order to produce land use and land cover maps. After that, we intersect each classification for each date with the precedent date, so we can analyze the paths of each land use change, focusing forestry expansion in native’s Mata Atlântica areas. The results show that eucalyptus plantations in the region have expanded mostly over fragments of Mata Atlântica. About 99.389 hectares of Mata Atlântica were transformed into forestry in 25 years, an average rate of 4000 ha per year. Clear-cut was largest between 1990 and 1995, when 22810 hectares of rain forest were cut, and between 1995 and 2000, when 21430 hectares were cut.

Understanding how the built environment at a neighborhood scale is associated with individuals' walking has been a common research objective in public health and city planning. In contrast to the extant literature, we examine whether a neighborhood's location defined at a regional scale is associated with walking and whether this association is separately identifiable from the association of the neighborhood built environment and walking. The findings indicated that walking for commuting purposes was associated more strongly with neighborhood location than with the neighborhood built environment, whereas walking for shopping-eating purposes had a stronger association with the neighborhood built environment. The results suggest that, without the provision of better public transportation services to suburban neighborhoods, walkable neighborhood development in suburbs may not be successful for encouraging walking for commuting.

Background:We surveyed North Carolina (NC) municipalities to document the presence of municipal walking- and bicycling-related projects, programs, and policies; to describe whether prevalence of these elements differed if recommended in a plan; and to characterize differences between urban and rural municipalities.Methods:We surveyed all municipalities with ≥ 5000 persons (n = 121) and sampled municipalities with < 5000 persons (216/420), with a response rate of 54% (183/337). Responses were weighted to account for the sampling design.Results:From a list provided, staff reported on their municipality’s use of walking- and bicycling-related elements (8 infrastructure projects, 9 programs, and 14 policies). The most commonly reported were projects on sidewalks (53%), streetscape improvements (51%), bicycle/walking paths (40%); programs for cultural/recreational/health (25%), general promotional activities (24%), Safe Routes to School (24%), and law enforcement (24%); and policies on maintenance (64%), new facility construction (57%), and restricted automobile speed or access (45%). Nearly all projects, programs, or policies reported were more likely if included in a plan and more prevalent in urban than rural municipalities.Conclusion:These results provide cross-sectional support that plans facilitate the implementation of walking and bicycling elements, and that rural municipalities plan and implement these elements less often than urban municipalities.

Knowledge about water resources is critical for climate adaptation in face of long-term changes and more frequent extreme events occurrence. During the major droughts of 2005 and 2010, a large epicenter was located in the southwestern Amazon over the Purus River Basin. In this sense, we conducted a hydrological simulation in this basin to assess the climate change impacts on its water resources throughout the 21st century. The water balance was simulated using the Distributed Hydrological Model (MHD-INPE). The future climate projections were simulated by the regional ETA-INPE model driven by a 4-member HadCM3 global model regarding the A1B-AR4/IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emissions. As simulated by the ETA-INPE/HadCM3, the 4-members mean response for the A1B scenario represents a rainfall reduction of up to 11.1%, a temperature increase of up to 4.4 °C, and a wind speed increase of up to 8.4% in the Purus Basin by the end of 21st century. Under these conditions, the discharge projections represent an overall 27% decrease in the Purus Basin with different patterns between dry and wet season, as well as changes in seasonality trends. The consequences of projected climate change are severe and will probably have a great impact upon natural ecosystem maintenance and human subsistence. In a climate change adaptation process, the preservation of the natural forest cover of the Purus Basin may have great importance in water retention. RESUMO O conhecimento sobre os recursos hídricos é crítico para a adaptação diante das mudanças de longo prazo e ocorrência mais frequente de eventos extremos. Nas grandes secas de 2005 e 2010, um grande epicentro foi localizado no sudoeste da Amazônia sobre a Bacia do Rio Purus. Nesse sentido, foi realizada uma simulação hidrológica nessa bacia, para avaliar os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre seus recursos hídricos ao longo do século 21. O balanço hídrico foi simulado utilizando o modelo hidrológico distribuído (MHD-INPE). As projeções climáticas futuras foram simuladas pelo modelo regional ETA-INPE forçado por 4 membros do modelo global HadCM3 sobre o cenário de emissões de gases de efeito estufa A1B-AR4/IPCC. Como simulado pelo ETA-INPE/HadCM3, a resposta média dos 4 membros para o cenário A1B representa uma redução de chuvas em até 11,1%, aumento de temperatura em até 4,4 °C, e aumento da velocidade do vento em até 8,4% para a Bacia do Purus até o fim do século 21. Sob essas condições, as projeções de descarga representam uma diminuição global de 27% na Bacia do Purus, com diferentes padrões entre as estações seca e úmida, bem como mudanças nas tendências sazonais. As consequências das mudanças climáticas projetadas são severas e provavelmente terão um grande impacto sobre a manutenção dos ecossistemas naturais e subsistência humana. Em um processo de adaptação a mudanças climáticas, a preservação da cobertura florestal natural da Bacia do Purus pode ter grande importância na retenção de água.