Land development impacts of BRT in a sample of stops in Quito and Bogotá

Despite the growing popularity of bus rapid transit (BRT), little is known about its impacts on land development. In this paper we examine the land development impacts of BRT in Bogota and Quito, two cities that have made a variety of BRT investments over the last two decades and with Curitiba, they have been world pioneers of BRT. Relying on 10 years of data, we use a quasi-experimental research design to quantitatively examine changes in land development in both cities. Outcomes include land market characteristics such as built area added per year (both cities), units added (Quito), building permits issued (Bogota), changes in land use (Bogota), and property price changes (Quito). We compare how outcomes vary over time for treatment corridors – those that received BRT service at various points throughout the decade, relative to control corridors in both cities, and in Bogota also relative to a road-expansion corridor. In Bogota, control corridors were corridors slated to get BRT but that had not received any BRT service yet, whereas in Quito they are adjoining areas. Results reveal heterogeneous impacts in both cities. Although increased building activity tends to concentrate in treatment areas, comparisons with controls suggest that the impacts are context dependent. Some stations showed very high development activity and others less so. Development induced along the road extension in Bogota was considerable. In both cities, the strongest effects appear to concentrate in end-of-line terminals and stops built in the early 2000s. Whether BRT stimulates land development depends on institutional factors such as developer appetite, market conditions, land availability, and land regulations.