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Exposure to cold temperatures can have negative health impacts that lead to cold-related illness or death. We explored the case definition for cold-related illness that was developed and piloted by the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Using their case definition, we assessed the burden of cold-related illness and death in Minnesota. We analyzed the results by season, demographics, and chronic disease. Overall,, Introduction Cold-related illness and death are common and occur across different U.S. regions. The National Center for Health Statistics within the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that [...]

Community-level vulnerability assessments (VAs) are important for understanding how populations experience vulnerabilities to climate change in different ways given local socioeconomic and environmental factors. Despite recent expansion in the literature that evaluates vulnerability at the local level, approaches to understanding future scenarios and to integrating climatic and nonclimatic factors are inconsistent and often lack clear methodological information. This study utilized systematic review methods to characterize and compare future scenarios and the integration of climatic and nonclimatic stimuli in community-focused VAs published over the last five years. Five common methods for assessing future dimensions of vulnerability were characterized. Key challenges regarding sources and scales of information were highlighted alongside methods to integrate data spanning climatic and nonclimatic information at scales ranging from local to global. The majority of VAs considered current and past vulnerability; few VAs incorporated future scenarios and these studies focused on future climatic conditions while largely overlooking changes in nonclimatic drivers of vulnerability. Approaches to evaluate future dimensions of vulnerability included climate model projections, socioeconomic model projections, temporal analogue approaches, longitudinal approaches, and local perceptions. These methods often failed to capture the dynamic interactions between variables through time, as future impacts are unlikely to follow previous patterns of change. To combine datasets of different scales, VAs created vulnerability indices, overlaid spatial datasets, or used expert judgement. These approaches tended to aggregate local characteristics to the regional level at the expense of community specificity. There is a need for methodological advances to assess future scenarios and to combine datasets in the field of community-level climate change VAs to make these studies more responsive to local realities and relevant to the development of climate change adaptation strategies. Key words: climate change vulnerability, vulnerability assessment, systematic review. Resume: Les evaluations de la vulnerability (EV) au niveau communautaire sont importantes afin de comprendre les differentes facons dont les populations vivent les vulnerabilites aux changements climatiques compte tenu des facteurs socioeconomiques et environnementaux locaux. Malgre le foisonnement recent de la documentation qui evalue la vulnerabilite au niveau local, les approches pour comprendre les scenarios futurs et integrer les facteurs climatiques et les facteurs non climatiques sont incoherents et manquent souvent d'informations methodologiques claires. Cette etude a utilise des methodes de revue systematique dans le but de caracteriser et de comparer les scenarios futurs et l'integration de stimuli climatiques et non climatiques dans des EVaxees sur les communautes publiees au cours des cinq dernieres annees. Cinq methodes courantes d'evaluation des dimensions futures de la vulnerabilite ont ete caracterisees. Les principaux defis concernant les sources et les echelles d'information ont ete mis en evidence parallelement aux methodes d'integration des donnees couvrant les informations climatiques et non climatiques a des echelles allant de locale a mondiale. La majorite des EV ont tenu compte de la vulnerabilite actuelle et passee; peu d'entre elles ont integre des scenarios futurs et ces etudes etaient axees sur les conditions climatiques futures en omettant presque completement les changements au niveau des facteurs de vulnerabilite non climatiques. Les approches pour evaluer les dimensions futures de la vulnerabilite comprenaient des projections de modeles climatiques, des projections de modeles socioeconomiques, des approches analogiques temporelles, des approches longitudinales et des perceptions locales. Souvent ces methodes ne sont pas parvenues a saisir les interactions dynamiques entre les variables au fil du temps, puisque que les impacts futurs ne suivront probablement pas les modeles de changement anterieurs. Afin de combiner des ensembles de donnees de differentes echelles, les EV ont cree des indices de vulnerabilite, ont superpose des ensembles de donnees spatiales ou utilise un jugement d'expert. Ces approches tendaient a regrouper les caracteristiques locales au niveau regional au detriment de la specificite communautaire. Des progres methodologiques sont necessaires pour pouvoir evaluer les scenarios futurs et combiner des ensembles de donnees dans le domaine des EV aux changements climatiques au niveau des communautes afin de rendre ces etudes plus adaptees aux realites locales et pertinentes sur le plan d'elaboration de strategies d'adaptation aux changements climatiques. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles : vulnerabilite aux changements climatiques, evaluation de la vulnerabilite, revue systematique., 1. Introduction Vulnerability assessments (VAs) are essential for understanding the multi-faceted and differentiated impacts of climate change. As the concept of climate change vulnerability emerged in recent decades, VAs initially [...]

Global anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and hazardous air pollutants have produced broad yet regionally disparate changes in climatic conditions and pollutant deposition in the Canadian boreal zone (the boreal). Adapting boreal resource management to atmospheric change requires a holistic understanding and awareness of the ongoing and future responses of terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems in this vast, heterogeneous landscape. To integrate existing knowledge of and generate new insights from the broad-scale impacts of atmospheric change, we first describe historical and present trends (~1980-2015) in temperature, precipitation, deposition of hazardous air pollutants, and atmospheric-mediated natural disturbance regimes in this region. We then examine their associations with ecosystem condition and productivity, biological diversity, soil and water, and the carbon budget. These associations vary considerably among ecozones and likely undergo further changes under the emerging risks of atmospheric change. We highlight the urgent need to establish long-term, boreal-wide monitoring for many key components of freshwater ecosystems to better understand and project the influences of atmospheric change on boreal water resources. We also formulate three divergent future scenarios of boreal ecosystems in 2050. Our scenario analysis reveals multiple undesirable changes in boreal ecosystem structure and functioning with more variable atmospheric conditions and frequent land disturbances, while continuing business-as-usual management of natural resources. It is possible, though challenging, to reduce unwanted consequences to ecosystems through management regimes focussed on socio-ecological sustainability and developing resilient infrastructure and adaptive resource-management strategies. We emphasize the need for proactive actions and improved foresight for all sectors of society to collaborate, innovate, and invest in anticipation of impending global atmospheric change, without which the boreal zone will face a dim future. Key words: climate change, boreal zone, ecosystem, forest, freshwater. Les emissions de gaz a effet de serre et les polluants atmospheriques dangereux d'origine anthropique a l'echelle mondiale ont entraîne des changements de grande envergure, mais disparates a l'echelle regionale, au niveau des conditions climatiques et des retombees de polluants dans la zone boreale canadienne (le boreal). Afin d'adapter lagestion des ressources boreales aux changements atmospheriques, il est necessaire d'avoir une comprehension et une sensibilisation holistiques des reponses actuelles et futures des ecosystemes terrestres et d'eau douce dans ce vaste paysage heterogene. Afin d'integrer les connaissances existantes et de generer de nouvelles connaissances d'apres les impacts du changement atmospherique a grande echelle, nous decrivons d'abord les tendances historiques et actuelles (~1980-2015) en matiere de temperature, de precipitations, de retombees de polluants atmospheriques dangereux, et de regimes de perturbation naturelle d'origine atmospherique dans cette region. Nous examinons ensuite leurs liens avec l'etat et la productivite de l'ecosysteme, la diversite biologique, le sol et l'eau, et le bilan de carbone. Ces liens varient considerablement d'une ecozone a l'autre et sont susceptibles de subir d'autres changements en raison des risques emergents du changement atmospherique. Nous mettons en evidence le besoin urgent d'etablir une surveillance a long terme a l'echelle de la foret boreale pour de nombreuses composantes cles des ecosystemes d'eau douce afin de mieux comprendre et de mieux projeter les effets des changements atmospheriques sur les ressources en eau boreale. Nous elaborons egalement trois scenarios d'avenir divergents pour les ecosystemes boreaux en 2050. Notre analyse des scenarios revele de multiples changements indesirables au niveau de la structure et du fonctionnement de l'ecosysteme boreal avec des conditions atmospheriques plus variables et des perturbations frequentes du terrain, tout en continuant de gerer de facon habituelle les ressources naturelles. Il est possible, bien que difficile, de reduire les consequences indesirables sur les ecosystemes grace a des regimes de gestion axes sur la durabilite socioecologique, et sur les developpements d'infrastructures resilientes et des strategies de gestion adaptative des ressources. Nous insistons sur la necessite de prendre des mesures proactives et d'ameliorer la prevoyance pour que tous les secteurs de la societe collaborent, innovent et investissent en prevision des changements atmospheriques mondiaux imminents, sans quoi la zone boreale fera face a un avenir assez sombre. [Traduit par la Redaction] Mots-cles: changement climatique, zone boreale, ecosysteme, foret, eau douce., 1. Introduction The Canadian boreal zone (hereinafter the boreal) extends from the most easterly part of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador to the border of Alaska and Yukon, covering [...]

BACKGROUND: While various policies have been implemented globally to mitigate climate change and reduce exposure to toxic air pollutants, policy assessments have considered few if any of the benefits to children. OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively assess the co-benefits of climate change mitigation to children, we expanded the suite of adverse health outcomes in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) to include additional outcomes associated with prenatal and childhood exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (P[M.sub.2.5]). We applied this newly expanded program to an assessment of the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), the United States' first regional market-based regulatory program designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electric power sector within the Northeast. METHODS: We used calculated changes in ambient P[M.sub.2.5] concentrations for the period 2009-2014, with newly incorporated concentration-response (C-R) functions to quantify changes in the incidence of preterm birth (PTB), term low birth weight (TLBW), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and asthma. These outcomes are causally or likely to be causally related to P[M.sub.2.5] exposure. Cost per case estimates were incorporated to monetize those changes in incidence. RESULTS: The estimated avoided cases of adverse child health outcomes included 537 asthma cases, 112 preterm births, 98 cases of ASD, and 56 cases of TLBW, with an associated avoided cost estimate ranging from $191 to $350 million. In a previous analysis of health benefits of RGGI, the only benefits accruing to children were limited to prevented cases of infant mortality and respiratory illnesses, with a monetized impact of $8.1 million--only 2-4% of the new results attributable to RGGI. CONCLUSION: The results of this innovative analysis indicate that RGGI has provided substantial child health benefits beyond those initially considered. Moreover, those health benefits had significant estimated economic value. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6706, Introduction Toxic air pollutants such as ambient fine particulate matter [PM [less than or equal to]2.5 [micro]m in aerodynamic diameter (P[M.sub.2.5])] and the major climate-altering gas, carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]) emitted [...]

Background: The Cameroon government has set a target that, by 2030, 58% of the population will be using Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) as a cooking fuel, in comparison with less than 20% in 2014. The National LPG Master Plan (Master Plan) was developed for scaling up the LPG sector to achieve this target. Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the potential impacts of this planned LPG expansion (the Master Plan) on population health and climate change mitigation, assuming primary, sustained use of LPG for daily cooking. Methods: We applied existing and developed new mathematical models to calculate the health and climate impacts of expanding LPG primary adoption for household cooking in Cameroon over two periods: a) short-term (2017-2030): Comparing the Master Plan 58% target with a counterfactual LPG adoption of 32% in 2030, in line with current trends; and b) long-term (2031-2100, climate modeling only), assuming Cameroon will become a mature and saturated LPG market by 2100 (73% adoption, based on Latin American countries). We compared this with a counterfactual adoption of 41% by 2100, in line with current trends. Results: By 2030, successful implementation of the Master Plan was estimated to avert about 28,000 (minimum = 22,000, maximum = 35,000) deaths and 770,000 (minimum = 580,000 maximum = 1 million) disability-adjusted life years. For the same period, we estimated reductions in pollutant emissions of more than a third in comparison with the counterfactual, leading to a global cooling of -0.1 milli [degrees]C in 2030. For 2100, a cooling impact from the Master Plan leading to market saturation (73%) was estimated to be -0.70milli [degrees]C in comparison with to the counterfactual, with a range of -0.64 to -0.93 milli [degrees]C based on different fractions of nonrenewable biomass. Discussion: Successful implementation of the Master Plan could have significant positive impacts on population health in Cameroon with no adverse impacts on climate. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4899, Introduction Household air pollution (HAP) is a major risk factor for disease and disability in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (Gakidou et al. 2017). HAP is caused by incomplete combustion [...]

Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on 'common but differentiated responsibilities' reached by the United [...]

Background: The effects of weather on diarrhea could influence the health impacts of climate change. Children have the highest diarrhea incidence, especially in India, where many lack safe water and sanitation. Objectives: In a prospective cohort of 1,284 children under 5 y of age from 900 households across 25 villages in rural Tamil Nadu, India, we examined whether high temperature and heavy rainfall was associated with increased all-cause diarrhea and water contamination. Methods: Seven-day prevalence of diarrhea was assessed monthly for up to 12 visits from January 2008 to April 2009, and hydrogen sulfide ([H.sub.2]S) presence in drinking water, a fecal contamination indicator, was tested in a subset of households. We estimated associations between temperature and rainfall exposures and diarrhea and [H.sub.2]S using binomial regressions, adjusting for potential confounders, random effects for village, and autoregressive-1 error terms for study week. Results: There were 259 cases of diarrhea. The prevalence of diarrhea during the 7 d before visits was 2.95 times higher (95% CI: 1.99, 4.39) when mean temperature in the week before the 7-d recall was in the hottest versus the coolest quartile of weekly mean temperature during 1 December 2007 to 15 April 2009. Diarrhea prevalence was 1.50 times higher when the 3 weeks before the diarrhea recall period included >1 d (vs. 0 d) with rainfall of >16.82 mm (95% CI: 1.12, 2.02), and 2.60 times higher (95% CI: 1.55, 4.36) for heavy rain weeks following a 60-d dry period. The [H.sub.2]S prevalence in household water was not associated with heavy rain prior to sample collection. Conclusions: The results suggest that, in rural Tamil Nadu, heavy rainfall may wash pathogens that accumulate during dry weather into child contact. Higher temperatures were positively associated with diarrhea 1-3 weeks later. Our findings suggest that diarrhea morbidity could worsen under climate change without interventions to reduce enteric pathogen transmission through multiple pathways. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3711, Introduction Diarrhea is the fourth leading cause of death of children In India, diarrhea causes an estimated 3.65% of disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost (7.1% of DALYs lost in children [...]

Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them., More than half the world's people are nourished by crops grown with synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers, which were made possible in the early twentieth century by the invention of the [...]

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records (1-6)--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990 (7). The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated (8). However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques (9,10) and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report (7) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records (4). The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections (11) of future sea-level rise., Tide gauges provide records of local sea-level changes that, in the case of some sites, extend back to the eighteenth century (12-14). However, using the database of tide gauge records [...]

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections (1,2). The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type (3-6). Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is [23.sup.+7.sub.-4] years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semiarid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models., The largest global gross exchanges of carbon occur at the interface between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere (7). Changes in the net exchange of C[O.sub.2] between the land and [...]

ARISING FROM C. Mora et al. Nature 502, 183-187 (2013) The question of when the signal of climate change will emerge from the background noise of climate variability--the 'time of [...]

Abstract Climate change and overgrazing are believed by policy makers to have been the drivers of grassland degradation in China over the past thirty years. However, recent work has suggested [...]

If it weren't for the cement pipe segments nearly nine feet in diameter, oversize yellow backhoes, towering piles of sand, and yawning trenches scattering the streets, the section of Toronto [...]

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01558.x Byline: EMILY S. MINOR ([double dagger]*), TODD R. LOOKINGBILL ([double dagger][dagger]) Keywords: biodiversity; conservation; dispersal; graph theory; reserve design; umbrella species Abstract: Abstract: Protected areas must be close, or connected, enough to allow for the preservation of large-scale ecological and evolutionary processes, such as gene flow, migration, and range shifts in response to climate change. Nevertheless, it is unknown whether the network of protected areas in the United States is connected in a way that will preserve biodiversity over large temporal and spatial scales. It is also unclear whether protected-area networks that function for larger species will function for smaller species. We assessed the connectivity of protected areas in the three largest biomes in the United States. With methods from graph theory-a branch of mathematics that deals with connectivity and flow-we identified and measured networks of protected areas for three different groups of mammals. We also examined the value of using umbrella species (typically large-bodied, far-ranging mammals) in designing large-scale networks of protected areas. Although the total amount of protected land varied greatly among biomes in the United States, overall connectivity did not. In general, protected-area networks were well connected for large mammals but not for smaller mammals. Additionally, it was not possible to predict connectivity for small mammals on the basis of connectivity for large mammals, which suggests the umbrella species approach may not be an appropriate design strategy for conservation networks intended to protect many species. Our findings indicate different strategies should be used to increase the likelihood of persistence for different groups of species. Strategic linkages of existing lands should be a conservation priority for smaller mammals, whereas conservation of larger mammals would benefit most from the protection of more land. Abstract (Spanish): Un Analisis Multiescala de la Conectividad de Areas Protegidas para Mamiferos en los Estados Unidos Resumen: Las areas protegidas deben estar lo suficientemente cercanas, o conectadas, para permitir la preservacion de procesos ecologicos y evolutivos a gran escala, como el flujo genetico, la migracion y los cambios de distribucion en respuesta al cambio climatico. Sin embargo, se desconoce si la red de areas protegidas en los Estados Unidos esta conectada de manera que preserve la biodiversidad en escalas temporales y espaciales grandes. Tampoco esta claro si las redes de areas protegidas que funcionan para especies mayores funcionaran para especies mas pequenas. Evaluamos la conectividad de las areas protegidas en las tres biomas mas grandes en los Estados Unidos. Con metodos derivados de la teoria de grafos - una rama de las matematicas que trata con la conectividad y el flujo - identificamos y medimos redes de areas protegidas para tres grupos diferentes de mamiferos. Tambien examinamos el valor de la utilizacion de especies paraguas (tipicamente mamiferos de talla grande y amplio rango de distribucion) en el diseno de redes de areas protegidas a gran escala. Aunque la cantidad total de terrenos protegidos vario enormemente entre biomas en los Estados Unidos, no fue asi con la conectividad. En general, las redes de areas protegidas estuvieron bien conectadas para mamiferos mayores pero no para mamiferos mas pequenos. Adicionalmente, no fue posible predecir la conectividad para mamiferos pequenos con base en la conectividad para mamiferos mayores, lo que sugiere que el enfoque de especie paraguas puede ser una estrategia de diseno inapropiada para redes de conservacion que intentan proteger muchas especies. Nuestros hallazgos indican que se deben utilizar diferentes estrategias para incrementar la probabilidad de persistencia de diferentes grupos de especies. La conexion estrategica de terrenos existente debe ser una prioridad para la conservacion de mamiferos pequenos, mientras que la conservacion de mamiferos mayores se beneficiaria mas con la proteccion de mas terrenos. Author Affiliation: ([double dagger])Appalachian Lab, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 301 Braddock Road, Frostburg, MD 21532, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted June 16, 2009; revised manuscript accepted March 12, 2010. Article note: (*) Current address: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Illinois at Chicago, M/C 066, 845 W. Taylor Street, SES 3346, Chicago, IL, U.S.A., email eminor@uic.edu ([dagger]) Current address: Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond, 108 Weinstein Hall, Richmond, VA 23173, U.S.A.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01563.x Byline: JOHN GOWDY (*), CHARLES HALL ([double dagger]), KENT KLITGAARD ([dagger]), LISI KRALL (s.) Keywords: behavioral economics; biodiversity; biophysical economics; climate change; economic theory; energy; Walrasian economics Abstract: Abstract: The last century has seen the ascendance of a core economic model, which we will refer to as Walrasian economics. This model is driven by the psychological assumptions that humans act only in a self-referential and narrowly rational way and that production can be described as a self-contained circular flow between firms and households. These assumptions have critical implications for the way economics is used to inform conservation biology. Yet the Walrasian model is inconsistent with a large body of empirical evidence about actual human behavior, and it violates a number of basic physical laws. Research in behavioral science and neuroscience shows that humans are uniquely social animals and not self-centered rational economic beings. Economic production is subject to physical laws including the laws of thermodynamics and mass balance. In addition, some contemporary economic theory, spurred by exciting new research in human behavior and a wealth of data about the negative global impact of the human economy on natural systems, is moving toward a world view that places consumption and production squarely in its behavioral and biophysical context. We argue that abandoning the straightjacket of the Walrasian core is essential to further progress in understanding the complex, coupled interactions between the human economy and the natural world. We call for a new framework for economic theory and policy that is consistent with observed human behavior, recognizes the complex and frequently irreversible interaction between human and natural systems, and directly confronts the cumulative negative effects of the human economy on the Earth's life support systems. Biophysical economics and ecological economics are two emerging economic frameworks in this movement. Abstract (Spanish): Lo Que Todo Biologo de la Conservacion Debe Saber de Teoria Economica Resumen: El ultimo siglo ha sido la superioridad de un modelo economico central, al que nos referimos como economia Walrasiana. Este modelo esta dirigido por supuestos psicologicos de que los humanos solo actuan de manera auto-referencial y estrechamente racional y que la produccion puede ser descrita como un flujo circular auto-contenido entre empresas y unidades domesticas. Estos supuestos tienen implicaciones criticas para la manera en que se utiliza la economia para informar a la biologia de la conservacion. Sin embargo, el modelo Walrasiano es inconsistente con un extenso cuerpo de evidencia empirica del comportamiento humano actual, y viola un numero de leyes fisicas basicas. La investigacion en ciencias conductuales y neurociencia muestran que los humanos son animales excepcionalmente sociales y seres auto-centrados economicamente racionales. La produccion economica esta sujeta a leyes fisicas incluyendo las leyes de termodinamica y balance de masa. En contraste, parte de la teoria economica contemporanea, estimulada por investigaciones recientes sobre la conducta humana y un cumulo de datos sobre el impacto negativo de la economia humana sobre los sistemas naturales, se esta moviendo hacia una vision global que coloca al consumo y la produccion justo en su contexto conductual y biofisico. Sostenemos que es esencial abandonar la camisa de fuerza de la economia Walrasiana para poder progresar en el entendimiento de las complejas interacciones entre la economia humana y el mundo natural. Hacemos un llamado para un nuevo marco de referencia para que la teoria y politica economica sean consistentes con la conducta humana observada, reconozcan la interaccion compleja y frecuentemente irreversible entre los sistemas humanos y naturales, y que confronten directamente los efectos negativos acumulativos de la economia humana sobre los sistemas de soporte de la vida en la Tierra. La economia biofisica y la economia ecologica son dos marcos economicos emergentes en este movimiento. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Economics, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180-3590, U.S.A., emailjohngowdy@earthlink.net ([dagger])College of Environmental Science and Forestry, State University of New York, Syracuse, NY, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Economics, Wells College, Aurora, NY, U.S.A. (s.)Department of Economics, State University of New York at Cortland, Cortland, NY 13045, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted May 27, 2009; revised manuscript accepted April 7, 2010.

The impact of climatic variations on crop yields and the adaptation by farmers in north-western Nigeria are examined using the modeling approach and farm surveys. Accordingly, regression models which relate climate data to crop yields were constructed. The results showed that rainfall has a positive relationship with crop yields in the region and explained over 70 percent of the variations in the yields of sorghum, millet and maize, all of which were significant at the 0.05 level. Evaporation also had a significant but inverse relationship with crop yields. Other climatic elements in the experiment provided minimal levels of explanation. The farm surveys found that rural farmers in north-western Nigeria were quite innovative when it comes to adapting to drought. The study concluded that the impact of climatic variations on crop yields in north-western Nigeria can be substantial especially under drought conditions. The need to update farmers' adaptive strategies is emphasized. Keywords: Northern Nigeria, Climate change, Drought, Crop-climate models, Farm surveys, Adaptation strategies, 1. Introduction Farming in northern Nigeria is predominantly rural, with over 80 percent of the farmers practicing rain-fed, subsistence agriculture. These peasant farmers produce for subsistence rather than for sale. [...]

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01733.x Byline: Matts Lindbladh (1), David R. Foster (2) Keywords: Denmark; extinction debt; forest conservation; forest history; land-use history; oak; paleoecology; pollen analysis; Quercus robur; Sweden Abstract: Summary 1. The long-term history of Quercus in southern Scandinavia has received little attention despite its important role in modern conservation. In this study the 4000-year dynamics of Quercus, its habitat and other important taxa were analysed with pollen data from 25 small hollows and 6 regional sites across southern Scandinavia. The aim was to provide a context for understanding the species' current status and managing its future dynamics. 2. The results indicate that Quercus is much less abundant today than at any time during the previous 4000 years and corroborate the rapid decline reported in 18th- and 19th-century historical records. Modern pollen percentages are 45-60% of 17th-century values and only 20-35% of the maximum values reached in the 3rd century. 3. A strong positive correlation exists between the abundance of Quercus and the abundance of Tilia, Corylus and Alnus, which also experienced a steady decline across the region in the last two millennia. Climate change is the broad-scale driver of the observed dynamics, but human activity introduced considerable variation in the regional and temporal details of these changes. In the hemiboreal northern part of the study area the decline of Quercus appears to be controlled largely by competition with other tree species (especially Pinus and Picea), mediated by harvesting. In the temperate south part Quercus forests decreased through deforestation for agriculture. 4. Multivariate analyses indicate that although substantial phytogeographical variation has existed through past millennia the regional vegetation is more homogeneous today than in earlier periods. 5. Synthesis. The long-term decline and recent rapid reductions in Quercus populations throughout southern Scandinavia are striking and indisputable. From the perspective of both the populations of Quercus and its associated species of insects and epiphytes, the recent rate of decline is extremely rapid. Given the former abundance, longevity and capacity for persistence of Quercus, current populations of Quercus and its associated species appear to represent biological legacies in the midst of protracted decline. Based on these results, a reasonable conservation goal is to restore the abundance and distribution of Quercus to levels that preceded the drastic decline in the 18th and 19th centuries. Author Affiliation: (1)Southern Swedish Forest Research Centre, SLU - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, PO Box 49, 230 53 Alnarp, Sweden (2)Harvard University, Harvard Forest, 324 North Main Street, Petersham, MA 01366, USA Article History: Received 17 February 2010; accepted 16 August 2010 Handling Editor: Richard Bradshaw Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: matts.lindbladh@ess.slu.se

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01724.x Byline: Fiona J. Thomson (1,2), Angela T. Moles (2), Tony D. Auld (3), Daniel Ramp (1), Shiquan Ren (1), Richard T. Kingsford (1) Keywords: anemochory; ballochory; dispersal; dispersal syndrome; dispersal vectors; endozoochory; epizoochory; hydrochory; myrmecochory; predictive model Abstract: Summary 1. The dispersal capabilities of most plant species remain unknown. However, gaining basic dispersal information is a critical step for understanding species' geographical distributions and for predicting the likely impacts of future climate change. Dispersal mechanisms can indicate short- or long-distance dispersers, and highlight important biological interactions. 2. To predict dispersal mechanisms for species where information is limited, we used generalized linear mixed models with basic life-history and ecological traits. Sets of models were created (using Australian species) for six dispersal categories: wind, unassisted, water, ant, vertebrate-ingestion and vertebrate-attachment dispersal mechanisms. We validated our models on the dispersal mechanisms of 50 Australian, 30 Californian, 30 Swiss plant species and a global compilation of 70 species. 3. Growth form, seed mass and vegetation type were the main predictor variables. Our models predicted dispersal mechanisms for Australian and Californian plant species equally well (c. 70% correct) and to a lesser extent for the Swiss flora (c. 50% correct). Our models predicted observed dispersal mechanisms (c. 50% correct) equally well to inferred dispersal mechanisms (based on seed morphology). 4. Synthesis. Our approach of using easily obtainable traits for predicting dispersal mechanisms of species allows dispersal information to be predicted for species where little is known. From here, the application of realistic dispersal curves to the predicted dispersal mechanisms will further understanding on the dispersal capabilities of species. Author Affiliation: (1)Australian Wetlands and Rivers Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (2)Evolution & Ecology Research Centre, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia (3)Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water, Sydney, NSW 2220, Australia Article History: Received 30 May 2010; accepted 29 July 2010 Handling Editor: Hans Cornelissen Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: fiona.thomson@student.unsw.edu.au

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01723.x Byline: Daniele Colombaroli (1), Paul D. Henne (1,2), Petra Kaltenrieder (1), Erika Gobet (1), Willy Tinner (1) Keywords: Alps; Bronze Age; dynamic vegetation model; fire history; human impact; L andC lim model; macroscopic charcoal; palaeoecology and land-use history; regression analyses; tree line ecotone Abstract: Summary 1. We use high-resolution records of macroscopic charcoal and plant remains from sediments of a lake in the Swiss Alps (Gouille Rion, 2343 m a.s.l.) to reconstruct local fire variability and vegetation dynamics over the last 12 000 years. 2. Species response to fire variability and to summer temperature was obtained by combining regression analyses between contiguous series of plant macrofossils, macroscopic charcoal and an available reconstruction of past summer temperature. 3. With a dynamic landscape vegetation model (L andC lim), we simulated fire regimes using two levels of ignition frequency and moisture availability to disentangle the role of climate vs. humans on fire occurrence. The simulation results show that human disturbance was relevant in controlling the fire variability and are in agreement with pollen evidence of human impact from previous studies from Gouille Rion. 4. Our results show that fire is a natural disturbance agent in the tree line ecotone. Biomass availability controlled the fire regime until increased land use and anthropogenic fire during the past 4000 years changed species composition and vegetation structure close to the tree line. 5. Important species at the tree line ecotone such as Pinus cembra greatly benefitted from periods with temperature above the modern mean July temperature, if anthropogenic fire disturbance was not too severe, such as during the Bronze Age (c. 4000 cal. years bp). 6. When mean July temperatures were lower than modern mean July values, Juniperus nana and Larix decidua were at an advantage over P. cembra. With increasing anthropogenic fire, open lands with J. nana replaced L. decidua and P. cembra forest stands. 7. Synthesis. Fire activity was low to moderate during the early and mid-Holocene. Intensified land use coupled with fire occurrence since the Bronze Age (c. 4000 cal. years bp) had a larger impact on species composition near the tree line than climate change. Although climate change will alter vegetation composition, future dynamics of mountain forests will be co-determined by anthropogenic fire. For example, high fire variability may impede upslope establishment of forests in response to climatic warming as expected for this century, with serious implications for forest diversity. Author Affiliation: (1)Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland (2)Department of Environmental Sciences, Forest Ecology, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland Article History: Received 11 March 2010; accepted 3 August 2010 Handling Editor: Richard Bradshaw Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: daniele.colombaroli@ips.unibe.ch

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01534.x Byline: CLAUS WEDEKIND (*), CHRISTOPH KUNG ([dagger]) Keywords: climate change; life history; monitoring; population decline; river temperature; salmonid; spawning season Abstract: Abstract: River-dwelling fish, such as European graylings (Thymallus thymallus), are susceptible to changes in climate because they can often not avoid suboptimal temperatures, especially during early developmental stages. We analyzed data collected in a 62-year-long (1948-2009) population monitoring program. Male and female graylings were sampled about three times/week during the yearly spawning season in order to follow the development of the population. The occurrence of females bearing ripe eggs was used to approximate the timing of each spawning season. In the last years of the study, spawning season was more than 3 weeks earlier than in the first years. This shift was linked to increasing water temperatures as recorded over the last 39 years with a temperature logger at the spawning site. In early spring water temperatures rose more slowly than in later spring. Thus, embryos and larvae were exposed to increasingly colder water at a stage that is critical for sex determination and pathogen resistance in other salmonids. In summer, however, fry were exposed to increasingly warmer temperatures. The changes in water temperatures that we found embryos, larvae, and fry were exposed to could be contributing to the decline in abundance that has occurred over the last 30-40 years. Abstract (Spanish): Cambio en la Epoca de Desove y Efectos del Calentamiento Climatico sobre Etapas de Desarrollo de un Timalo (Salmonidae) Resumen: Los peces de rio, como el timalo europeo (Thymallus thymallus), son susceptibles a los cambios del clima porque a menudo no pueden evitar temperaturas suboptimas, especialmente durante las primeras etapas del desarrollo. Analizamos datos recolectados en programa de monitoreo de la poblacion a lo largo de 62 anos (1948-2009). Timalos machos y hembras fueron muestreados 3 veces/semana durante la temporada anual de desove con el objetivo de seguir el desarrollo de la poblacion. La ocurrencia de hembras con huevos maduros fue utilizada para estimar la temporizacion de cada epoca de desove, En los ultimos anos del estudio la epoca de desove fue mas de 3 semanas antes que en los primero anos. Este cambio fue relacionado con el incremento de las temperaturas del agua registradas en los ultimos 39 anos en el sitio de desove. Al inicio de la primavera las temperaturas incrementaron mas lentamente que al final. Por lo tanto, los embriones y larvas estuvieron expuestos a agua cada vez mas fria en una etapa que es critica para la determinacion del sexo y la resistencia a patogenos en otros salmonidos. Sin embargo, en el verano, los alevines estuvieron expuestos a temperaturas cada vez mas altas. Los cambios en la temperatura del agua en la que encontramos embriones, larvas y alevines pudieran estar contribuyendo a la declinacion en la abundancia que ha ocurrido en los ultimos 30 - 40 anos. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Ecology and Evolution, Biophore, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland, emailclaus.wedekind@unil.ch ([dagger])Fisheries Inspectorate Bern, 3110 Munsingen, Switzerland Article History: Paper submitted October 13, 2009; revised manuscript accepted February 22, 2010.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18168.x Byline: Gary D. Powney, David B. Roy, Daniel Chapman, Tom H. Oliver Abstract: Understanding the mechanisms by which global climate change and habitat loss impact upon biodiversity is essential in order to mitigate any negative impacts. One such impact may be changes to population synchrony (defined as correlated fluctuations in the density of separate populations). It is well established that synchrony depends on both dispersal ability and correlated environmental conditions, for example shared climate. However, what is not clear is whether differences in habitat or position within a species' range also mediate synchrony. Since synchronous metapopulations are thought to be more extinction-prone, establishing the drivers of synchrony has clear conservation implications. Using three butterfly species (Maniola jurtina, Pyronia tithonus and Aphantopus hyperantus) we investigated the effects of habitat similarity and range position on population synchrony, after accounting for the effects of distance and climate. Range position was present in all minimum adequate models, though non-significant using Mantel randomization tests in one case. We show that M. jurtina and P. tithonus synchrony is not consistent across species' ranges, with marginal populations showing more synchronous dynamics. Increased climatic constraints on marginal populations, leading to a narrower range of suitable microhabitats may be responsible for this, which is supported by the result that habitat similarity between sites was also positively correlated with population synchrony. As the landscape becomes increasingly homogeneous, overall population synchrony may be expected to rise. We conclude that habitat modification and climate change have the capacity to drive changes in population synchrony that could make species more vulnerable to extinction. Author Affiliation: (1)NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK (2)NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, EH26 0QB, UK (3)Div. of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Article History: Paper manuscript accepted 21 January 2010 Article note: G. D. Powney, NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK. E-mail: gary.powney09@imperial.ac.uk

Byline: Andrew K. Jorgenson (1), Brett Clark (2) Keywords: Population; Climate change; Carbon dioxide emissions; Cross-national research; Environment Abstract: This study examines the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship. We analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 to determine whether the national-level association between population and carbon dioxide emissions has remained stable, declined, or intensified in recent decades. Results indicate that population size has a large and stable positive association with anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of temporal stability generally hold for both developed countries and less-developed countries. The authors conclude that population, in tandem with other social drivers, remains an important consideration for research that addresses the human dimensions of global environmental change. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Sociology, University of Utah, 380 South 1530 East, Room 301, Salt Lake City, UT, 84112, USA (2) Department of Sociology and Anthropology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, USA Article History: Registration Date: 14/06/2010 Online Date: 25/06/2010

Byline: Aaron M. McCright (1) Keywords: Gender; Climate change; Knowledge; Concern Abstract: This study tests theoretical arguments about gender differences in scientific knowledge and environmental concern using 8 years of Gallup data on climate change knowledge and concern in the US general public. Contrary to expectations from scientific literacy research, women convey greater assessed scientific knowledge of climate change than do men. Consistent with much existing sociology of science research, women underestimate their climate change knowledge more than do men. Also, women express slightly greater concern about climate change than do men, and this gender divide is not accounted for by differences in key values and beliefs or in the social roles that men and women differentially perform in society. Modest yet enduring gender differences on climate change knowledge and concern within the US general public suggest several avenues for future research, which are explored in the conclusion. Author Affiliation: (1) Lyman Briggs College, Department of Sociology, Environmental Science and Policy Program, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA Article History: Registration Date: 20/05/2010 Online Date: 05/06/2010

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18508.x Abstract: Climatic influences on animal populations, mediated by changes in condition-dependent survival or reproduction, have long intrigued ecologists. We analyzed links between winter North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO), a large scale climatic phenomenon affecting weather conditions over the North Atlantic and the Arctic, and average pre-laying body mass in common eiders. Body mass is a good proxy for condition-dependent reproductive output in this species. Time series links were assessed for two eider populations breeding at high latitudes, over a 10- and a 21-year time series. Winter NAO affected body mass in both populations and these effects were easier to detect when changes in the series rhythm were assessed using a novel method based on data discretization and information theory, rather than detection based on changes in amplitude, assessed using traditional linear models. Winter conditions affected body condition of eiders in both populations. Different mechanisms, however, are likely to be involved in the two populations, one being presumably affected by direct effects of climate and the other by effects through the food chain. Therefore, the same species can respond along different pathways to the same large scale climatic pattern, an important consideration when seeking to understand or manage the response of species to present and future climate change. Author Affiliation: (1)Dept of Biology, Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON, K1A0H3, Canada (2)National Wildlife Research Centre, Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON, K1A0H3, Canada (3)Dept de Biologie, UQAR-CEN, Rimouski, QC, G5L3A1, Canada (4)Norwegian Inst. for Nature Research, Polar Environmental Centre, NO-9296 Tromso, Norway (5)UMR CNRS 5558, Univ. Lyon 1, FR-69622, Villeurbanne Cedex, France (6)UMR 7625, UPMC-CNRS-ENS, Ecole Normale Superieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, FR-75230 Paris cedex 05, France, and UMI 209, IRD-UPMC, 32 avenue Henri Varagnat, FR-93142 Bondy cedex, France (7)Dept of Biology, Faculty of Science, Univ. of Tromso, NO-9037 Tromso, Norway Article History: Paper manuscript accepted 21 January 2010 Article note: S. Descamps, Dept of Biology, Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON, K1A0H3, Canada. E-mail: sebastien.descamps@uqar.qc.ca

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.04.001 Byline: Vamilson PrudA*ncio da Silva (a)(c), Hayo M.G. van der Werf (a)(b), Airton Spies (d), Sebastiao Roberto Soares (c) Abstract: Soybean production and its supply chain are highly dependent on inputs such as land, fertilizer, fuel, machines, pesticides and electricity. The expansion of this crop in Brazil in recent decades has generated concerns about its environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, two representative chains supplying soybeans to Europe were identified: Center West (CW) and Southern (SO) Brazil. Each supply chain was analyzed using Life Cycle Assessment methodology. We considered different levels of use of chemical and organic fertilizers, pesticides and machinery, different distances for transportation of inputs and different yield levels. Because transportation contributed strongly to environmental impacts, a detailed study was performed to identify the routes used to transport soybeans to seaports. Additionally, we considered different levels of land occupation and land transformation to represent the impact of deforestation in the CW region. Environmental impacts were calculated for 1000 kg of soybean up to and including the delivery to Europe at the seaport in Rotterdam, at 13% humidity. Overall results showed that the impacts are greater for CW than for SO for all impact categories studied, including acidification (7.7 and 5.3 kg SO.sub.2 eq., respectively), climate change (959 and 510 kg CO.sub.2 eq.), cumulative energy demand (12,634 and 6,999 MJ) and terrestrial ecotoxicity (4.9 and 3.1 kg 1,4-DCB eq.), except eutrophication and land occupation. The same trend was observed for the crop-production stage. Efforts to reduce chemical fertilizers and diesel consumption can reduce CO.sub.2 emissions. Although deforestation for crop production has decreased in recent years, the contribution of deforestation to climate change and cumulative energy demand remains significant. In the CW scenario deforestation contributed 29% to climate change and 20% to cumulative energy demand. Results also showed that although there are different transportation options in Brazil, the current predominance of road transport causes severe environmental impacts. In CW, road transport contributed 19% to climate change and 24% to cumulative energy demand, while in SO it contributed 12% and 15% to these impacts, respectively. Improvements in the logistics of transportation, giving priority to rail and river transports over road transport, can contribute significantly to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing energy use. Future studies involving Brazilian soybeans should take into account the region of origin as different levels of environmental impact are predicted. Author Affiliation: (a) INRA, UMR 1069 Sol Agro et hydrosysteme Spatialisation, F-35000 Rennes, France (b) Agrocampus Rennes, UMR 1069 Sol Agro et hydrosysteme Spatialisation, F-35000 Rennes, France (c) Univ. Federal de Santa Catarina, Dep. de Eng. Sanitaria e Ambiental, 88040-970, Florianopolis, Brazil (d) EPAGRI/CEPA, Rod. Admar Gonzaga, 1347, 88034901 Florianopolis, Brazil Article History: Received 11 September 2009; Revised 18 March 2010; Accepted 7 April 2010

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2010.01698.x Byline: Maria Laura Suarez (*), Thomas Kitzberger Keywords: drought; establishment rates; extreme climatic events; forest dynamics; Nothofagus dombeyi; plant-climate interactions; release events; tree mortality Abstract: Summary 1. The understanding of the impacts of climate anomalies on demographic processes involved in forest dynamics is becoming a major global change research objective, as climate-driven demographic changes have the potential to alter ecological processes and change the composition of existing communities. 2. Here, we test whether the effects of climatic variability on Nothofagus dombeyi forest dynamics differ along the W-E precipitation gradient of northern Patagonia, Argentina, due to different controlling factors along the gradient. 3. Using a dendroecological approach, we sampled six N. dombeyi stands along the gradient. Tree death, growth release and sapling birth dates were obtained and used to reconstruct stand mortality, canopy disturbance and establishment patterns in each stand. Discrete extreme climatic events were obtained by applying thresholds to meteorological time series. Bivariate event analysis was performed to examine the temporal relationships between climate events and forest demographic and canopy disturbance patterns. 4. In the xeric region, forest dynamics is driven by drought/heat and humid events. Following drought/heat events we observed standing-dead tree mortality, releases in growth, and tree establishment episodes. Regional synchrony of these events was coincident with droughts registered for northern Patagonia. However, successful establishment was related to wet periods that occurred after drought events, showing the dependence on favourable periods for growth. For wet regions, demographic patterns showed a temporally uniform pattern but with synchronies at the regional and local scales. Canopy openings produced by fallen trees, and consequent release in growth and establishment, were related to both drought and snowy/windy years. The effect of drought in wet region forests was related mainly to the extreme 1998-99 drought in northern Patagonia. 5. Synthesis. Climate in northern Patagonia influences N. dombeyi forest dynamics differentially along a precipitation gradient. In xeric forests, strong but relatively short climatic fluctuations impact forest structure through direct effects on tree demography. In wet forests, climatic-induced mechanical disturbance prevails, driving mortality and subsequent growth and establishment. Considering that recent extreme droughts have the strongest negative impact on N. dombeyi populations at the eastern distributional limits, a change in distribution of this species as a consequence of projected climate change is expected. Article History: Received 19 November 2009; accepted 10 June 2010 Handling Editor: Jonathan Newman Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: marialau.suarez@gmail.com

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01503.x Byline: BALINT CZUCZ (*), JOSEPH P. GATHMAN ([dagger]), GUY R. McPHERSON ([double dagger]) Keywords: ecosystem services; EROI; fossil fuels; global change; impact assessment; maximum empower; peak oil; vulnerability assessment Abstract: Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak ('peak oil') and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy-related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario-based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource-constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century. Abstract (Spanish): El Inminente Pico y Declinacion de la Produccion de Petroleo: un Reto Subestimado para la Conservacion de la Integridad Ecologica Resumen: En decadas recientes el petroleo ha sido consumido a un ritmo mucho mas rapido que el desubrimiento de nuevas reservas. Se aproxima el punto en el que la extraccion global de petroleo alcanzara un pico ('cenit del petroleo') y comenzara un periodo de declinacion inevitable. Esta eventualidad producira cambios fundamentales en la cantidad y naturaleza de los flujos de energia en el sistema economico humano, que probablemente estaran acompanados por confusion economica, conflictos politicos y un alto nivel de tension social. Ademas de ser un tema geologico y economico, el cenit del petroleo tambien es una preocupacion fundamental ya que involucra sistemas ecologicos y conservacion porque la economia es un subsistema del ecosistema global y los cambios en los comportamientos humanos relacionados con la energia pueden llevar a un amplio rango de efectos sobre los ecosistemas naturales, desde uso excesivo hasta abandono. A medida que es mas dificil satisfacer las demandas de energia, las consideraciones ambientales pueden ser facilmente desatendidas. Debido a la vital importancia de los ecosistemas y de los servicios del ecosistema en una era postpetroleo, es crucialmente importante manejar nuestros ecosistemas con sensatez durante el periodo de transicion a una economia basada en poco o ningun uso de combustibles fosiles. Se pueden formular buenas politicas por medio de la concienciacion y entendimiento obtenidos de evaluaciones basadas en escenarios. Actualmente, los escenarios globales del cambio ambiental mas utilizados no incorporan la limitacion de recursos, incluyendo los de la Evaluacion de Ecosistemas del Milenio (EEM) y el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climatico (PICC). Considerando la magnitud potencial de los efectos del cenit del petroleo sobre la sociedad y la naturaleza, el desarrollo de escenarios constrenidos por los recursos debe ser atendido inmediatamente. Ecologos y biologos de la conservacion estan en una posicion importante para analizar la situacion y proporcionar directrices, sin embargo el tema esta notablemente ausente de las discusiones ecologicas. Exhortamos a politicos, directores ejecutivos, lideres de opinion y ciudadanos a que consideren este problema seriamente porque es probable que se convierta en uno de los temas ambientales clave del siglo 21. Author Affiliation: (*)Department of Plant Ecology, Institute of Ecology and Botany of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 2163 Vacratot, Hungary, emailczucz@botanika.hu ([dagger])Department of Biology, University of Wisconsin-River Falls, River Falls, Wisconsin 54022, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, School of Natural Resources & the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted February 25, 2009; revised manuscript accepted January 19, 2010.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01492.x Byline: TARA J. ZAMIN (*[dagger][dagger]), JONATHAN E. M. BAILLIE ([dagger]), REBECCA M. MILLER ([double dagger]), JON PAUL RODRIGUEZ ([double dagger]s.), ANA ARDID (**), BEN COLLEN (*) Keywords: 2010 biodiversity target; biodiversity indicators; Convention on Biological Diversity; conservation priorities; gap analysis; Millennium Development Goals; national red lists; regional red lists; threatened species Abstract: Abstract: Following creation of the 2010 Biodiversity Target under the Convention on Biological Diversity and adoption of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals, information on status and trends of biodiversity at the national level has become increasingly important to both science and policy. National red lists (NRLs) of threatened species may provide suitable data for reporting on progress toward these goals and for informing national conservation priority setting. This information will also become increasingly important for developing species- and ecosystem-based strategies for climate change adaptation. We conducted a thorough global review of NRLs in 109 countries and analyzed gaps in NRL coverage in terms of geography and taxonomy to determine priority regions and taxonomic groups for further investment. We then examined correlations between the NRL data set and gross domestic product (GDP) and vertebrate species richness. The largest geographic gap was in Oceania, followed by middle Africa, the Caribbean, and western Africa, whereas the largest taxonomic gaps were for invertebrates, fungi, and lichens. The comprehensiveness of NRL coverage within a given country was positively correlated with GDP and negatively correlated with total vertebrate richness and threatened vertebrate richness. This supports the assertion that regions with the greatest and most vulnerable biodiversity receive the least conservation attention and indicates that financial resources may be an integral limitation. To improve coverage of NRLs, we propose a combination of projects that target underrepresented taxa or regions and projects that provide the means for countries to create or update NRLs on their own. We recommend improvements in knowledge transfer within and across regions as a priority for future investment. Abstract (Spanish): Listas Rojas Nacionales Mas Alla de la Meta 2010 Resumen: Despues de la creacion de la Meta 2010 de Biodiversidad bajo la Convencion de Diversidad Biologica y la adopcion de las Metas de Desarrollo Milenio de las Naciones Unidas, la informacion sobre el estatus y las tendencias de la biodiversidad a nivel nacional cada vez es mas importante para la ciencia y la politica. Las listas rojas nacionales (LRNs) de especies amenazadas pueden proporcionar datos adecuados para reportar el progreso hacia esas metas y para informar la definicion de prioridades nacionales de conservacion. Esta informacion tambien sera mas importante para el desarrollo de estrategias basadas en especies y en ecosistemas para adaptacion al cambio climatico. Realizamos una minuciosa revision global de LRNs en 109 paises y analizamos las disparidades en la cobertura de LRN en terminos de geografia y taxonomia para determinar regiones y grupos taxonomicos prioritarios para inversiones adicionales. Posteriormente examinamos las correlaciones entre los datos de LRN y el producto interno bruto (PIB) y la riqueza de especies de vertebrados. La mayor disparidad geografica se localizo en Oceania, seguida por Africa central, el Caribe y Africa occidental, mientras que las mayores disparidades taxonomicas fueron para invertebrados, hongos y liquenes. La extension de la cobertura de LRN en un pais determinado se correlaciono positivamente con el PIB y negativamente con la riqueza de vertebrados y el numero de especies de vertebrados amenazados. Esto sustenta la afirmacion de que regiones con la biodiversidad mas rica y vulnerable reciben la menor atencion de conservacion e indica que los recursos financieros pueden ser una limitante integral. Para mejorar la cobertura de LRNs, proponemos una combinacion de proyectos enfocados a taxa o regiones poco representadas con proyectos que proporcionan medios para que los paises creen o actualicen LRNs por su cuenta. Recomendamos mejoras en la transferencia de conocimiento dentro y entre regiones como una prioridad para futuras inversiones. Author Affiliation: (*)Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom ([dagger])Conservation Programmes, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom ([double dagger])Centro de Ecologia, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificas, Apartado 20632, Caracas 1020-A, Venezuela (s.)Provita, Apdo. 47552, Caracas 1041-A, Venezuela (**)Division of Biology, Imperial College, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, United Kingdom Article History: Paper submitted June 8, 2009; revised manuscript accepted September 23, 2009. Article note: ([dagger][dagger]) Current address: Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada; email tara.zamin@queensu.ca

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18292.x Byline: Nicholas Robar, Gary Burness, Dennis L. Murray Abstract: Empirical studies often reveal deleterious effects of parasites on host survival, but the ecological and environmental processes modulating parasite-associated host mortality are not well understood. We conducted meta-analysis of experimental studies assessing parasite-associated mortality (n = 52) to evaluate broad-scale patterns in host mortality risk relative to host or parasite taxon, parasite life cycle, or local environmental conditions. Overall, likelihood of host mortality was [proportional to]2.6 times higher among infected individuals when compared with hosts that either lacked parasites or had experimentally-reduced parasite burdens. Parasites with complex life cycles reliant on predation-mediated transmission generally were associated with higher mortality risk than those exploiting other transmission strategies. We also detected a negative relationship between parasite-associated host mortality and latitude; host mortality risk declined by [proportional to]2.6% with each degree increase in latitude. This result indicated the likely importance of abiotic factors in determining parasite effects. Host taxonomy further influenced parasite-associated mortality risk, with amphibian, fish, and mollusc hosts generally having higher hazard than arthropod, mammal, and bird hosts. Our results suggest patterns that conform to the predicted link between host mortality and parasite transmissibility, and pathogenicity. The relationship between host mortality and latitude in particular may portend marked shifts in host-parasite relationships pursuant to ongoing and projected global climate change. Author Affiliation: (1)Dept of Biology, Trent Univ., 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, K9J 7B8, Canada Article History: Paper manuscript accepted 10 December 2009 Article note: D. L. Murray, Dept of Biology, Trent Univ., 1600 West Bank Drive, Peterborough, ON, K9J 7B8, Canada. E-mail: dennismurray@trentu.ca

The contribution of carbonate-producing benthic organisms to the global marine carbon budget has been overlooked, the prevailing view being that calcium carbonate (CaC[O.sub.3]) is predominantly produced and exported by marine plankton in the 'biological pump.' Here, we provide the first estimation of the global contribution of echinoderms to the marine inorganic and organic carbon cycle, based on organism-level measurements from species of the five echinoderm classes. Echinoderms' global CaC[O.sub.3] contribution amounts to ~0.861 Pg CaC[O.sub.3]/yr (0.102 Pg C/yr of inorganic carbon) as a production rate, and ~2.11 Pg CaC[O.sub.3] (0.25 Pg C of inorganic carbon) as a standing stock from the shelves, slopes, and abyssal depths. Echinoderm inorganic carbon production (0.102 Pg C/yr) is less than the global pelagic production (0.4-1.8 Pg C/yr) and similar to the estimates for carbonate shelves globally (0.024-0.120 Pg C/yr). Echinoderm CaC[O.sub.3] production per unit area is ~27.01 g CaC[O.sub.3] x [m.sup.-2] x [yr.sup.-1] (3.24 g [C x [m.sup.-2] x [yr.sup.-1] as inorganic carbon) on a global scale for all areas, with a standing stock of ~63.34 g CaC[O.sub.3]/[m.sup.2] (7.60 g C/[m.sup.2] as inorganic carbon), and ~7.97 g C/[m.sup.2] as organic carbon The shelf production alone is 77.91 g CaC[O.sub.3] x [m.sup.-2] x [yr.sup.-1] (9.35 g C x [m.sup.-2] x [yr.sup.-1] as inorganic carbon) in contrast to 2.05 g CaC[O.sub.3] x [m.sup.-2] x [yr.sup.-1] (-0.24 g C x [m.sup.-2] x [yr.sup.-l] as inorganic carbon) for the slope on a global scale. The biogeography of the CaC[O.sub.3] standing stocks of echinoderms showed strong latitudinal variability. More than 80% of the global CaC[O.sub.3] production from echinoderms occurs between 0 and 800 m, with the highest contribution attributed to the shelf and upper slope. We provide a global distribution of echinoderm populations in the context of global calcite saturation horizons, since undersaturated waters with respect to mineral phases are surfacing. This shallowing is a direct consequence of ocean acidification, and in some places it may reach the shelf and upper slope permanently, where the highest CaC[O.sub.3] standing stocks from echinoderms originate. These organism-level data contribute substantially to the assessment of global carbonate inventories, which at present are poorly estimated. Additionally, it is desirable to include these benthic compartments in coupled global biogeochemical models representing the 'biological pump' and its feedbacks, since at present all efforts have focused on pelagic processes, dominated by coccolithophores. The omission of the benthic processes from modeling will only diminish the understanding of elemental fluxes at large scales and any future prediction of climate change scenarios. Key words: benthic compartments; CaC[O.sub.3] budget; carbon cycle; carbonate production; echinoderms; ocean acidification; standing stock.

In 2014, a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted, with italicized emphasis: 'It is virtually certain that global mean sea level rise will continue for many [...]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.02.024 Byline: Ni-Bin Chang (a), Y. Jeffrey Yang (b), James A. Goodrich (b), Ammarin Daranpob (a) Abstract: Global climate change will influence environmental conditions including temperature, surface radiation, soil moisture, and sea level, and it will also significantly impact regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), precipitation, runoff, and snowmelt. The quantity and quality of water available for drinking and other domestic usage is also likely to be affected by changes in these processes. Consequently, it is necessary to assess and reflect upon the challenges ahead for water infrastructure and the general public in metropolitan regions. One approach to the problem is to use index-based assessment, forecasting and planning. The drought indices previously developed were not developed for domestic water supplies, and thus are insufficient for the purpose of such an assessment. This paper aims to propose and develop a 'Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI)' to assess the status of both the quantity and quality of available potable water sources diverted from the hydrologic cycle in a metropolitan region. In this approach, the accessible water may be expressed as volume per month or week (i.e., m.sup.3/month or m.sup.3/week) relative to a prescribed historical record, and such a trend analysis may result in final MWAI values ranging from -1 to +1 for regional water management decision making. The MWAI computation uses data and information from both historical point measurements and spatial remote-sensing based monitoring. Variables such as precipitation, river discharge, and water quality changes at drinking water plant intakes at specific locations are past 'point' measurements in MWAI calculations. On the other hand, remote sensing provides information on both spatial and temporal distributions of key variables. Examples of remote-sensing images and sensor network technologies are in-situ sensor networks, ground-based radar, air-borne aircraft, and even space-borne satellites. A case study in Tampa Bay, Florida is described to demonstrate the short-term assessment of the MWAI concept at a practical level. It is anticipated that such a forecasting methodology may be extended for middle-term and long-term water supply assessment. Author Affiliation: (a) Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA (b) U.S. EPA, Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Cincinnati, OH, USA Article History: Received 16 April 2009; Revised 2 February 2010; Accepted 15 February 2010

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01422.x Byline: PAUL BEIER ([dagger]*), BRIAN BROST ([dagger]) Keywords: adaptation; climate change; coarse-filter approach; conservation planning; ecological process; land facets; soil; topography Abstract: Abstract: Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air-ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets-recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes-and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today's biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist. Abstract (Spanish): Uso de Elementos Territoriales para Planificar para el Cambio Climatico: Conservando las Arenas, No los Actores Resumen: Aun bajo los escenarios mas optimistas, el cambio climatico provocado por humanos sera una amenaza para muchas poblaciones y especies silvestres durante el proximo siglo. La respuesta de conservacion mas util es ampliar y conectar areas protegidas para soportar cambios en la distribucion de plantas y animales. Para priorizar tierras para reservas y corredores, algunos cientificos intentan enlazar cuatro modelos sumamente inciertos (escenarios de emision, circulacion global de aire y oceanos, circulacion regional y respuesta biotica). Este metodo tiene el alto riesgo de propagacion e intensificacion de errores y produce resultados a una escala mas gruesa que las decisiones de conservacion. En su lugar, proponemos que se identifiquen los elementos territoriales- unidades paisajisticas recurrentes con atributos topograficos y edaficos uniformes. Este metodo de filtro grueso podria conservar las arenas de actividad biologica en vez de los ocupantes temporales de esas arenas. Variables integradoras, sensibles al contexto, como la insolacion y la humedad topografica, son utiles para definir los elementos territoriales. Los procedimientos de clasificacion como el algoritmo de las k medias o el agrupamiento difuso son adecuados para definir elementos territoriales porque pueden analizar millones de pixeles y son insensibles al orden de casos. En regiones que carecen de mapas de suelo utiles, los sistemas hidrologicos o las plantas riberenas pueden indicar elementos importantes. Los planificadores de la conservacion deberian fijar objetivos de representacion mas altos para elementos raros y distintivos. La gran diseminacion de los elementos territoriales puede promover procesos ecologicos, interaccion evolutiva y cambios en la distribucion. Estudios relevantes sugieren que la diversidad de elementos territoriales es un buen sustituto para la biodiversidad actual, pero deja de conservar algunas especies. Para minimizar esas fallas, un diseno de reservas basado en elementos territoriales podria complementar, no reemplazar, otros metodos. Los disenos basados en elementos territoriales no estan sesgados hacia areas ricas en datos y pueden ser aplicados donde no existen mapas de cobertura de suelos. Author Affiliation: ([dagger])School of Forestry and Merriam-Powell Center for Environmental Research, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 96011-5018, U.S.A. Article History: Paper submitted June 25, 2009; revised manuscript accepted September 9, 2009. Article note: (*) email paul.beier@nau.edu

Byline: Alisson F. Barbieri (1), Edson Domingues (1), Bernardo L. Queiroz (1), Ricardo M. Ruiz (1), Jose I. Rigotti (1), Jose A. M. Carvalho (1), Marco F. Resende (1) Keywords: Climate change; Migration; Brazilian Northeast; Agriculture; Adaptation; Vulnerability Abstract: This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics--particularly migration--driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil's population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning. Author Affiliation: (1) Center for Regional Development and Planning (CEDEPLAR), Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), Minas Gerais, Brazil Article History: Registration Date: 28/02/2010 Online Date: 23/03/2010

Byline: Brant Liddle (1), Sidney Lung (2) Keywords: STIRPAT; Population structural change and environment; Carbon dioxide emissions; Demography and climate change; Panel data Abstract: We focus on three environmental impacts particularly influenced by population age-structure--carbon emissions from transport and residential energy and electricity consumption--as well as aggregate carbon emissions for a panel of developed countries, and take as our starting point the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Among our contributions is to further disaggregate population into three particularly key age groups: 20--34, 35--49, and 50--64, and by doing so demonstrate that population's environmental impact differs considerably across age groups, with the older age groups (ones typically associated with larger households) actually exerting a negative influence. Furthermore, those age-specific population influences are different (in absolute and relative terms) for the different environmental impacts we analyze. Also, we find that urbanization, in developed countries, best measures access to a country's power grid, and thus, is positively associated with energy consumption in the residential sector. Finally, we suggest some modeling and methodological improvements to the STIRPAT framework. Author Affiliation: (1) Centre for Strategic Economic Studies, Victoria University, Level 13, 300 Flinders Street, Melbourne, VIC, 8001, Australia (2) School of Applied Economics, Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia Article History: Registration Date: 11/01/2010 Online Date: 02/02/2010 Article note: Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi: 10.1007/s11111-010-0101-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Byline: Robert McLeman (1) Keywords: Climate change; Vulnerability; Adaptation; Adaptive capacity; Climate; Migration; Demographic change; Social networks; Ontario; Addington Highlands; Environment Abstract: This article describes and analyzes the impacts of population and demographic change on the vulnerability of communities to climate change and variability. It begins with a review of existing literature on the effects of population change on anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the exposure of settlements to climate risks, and on the capacity to adapt to climate change. The article explores the relationship between population change and adaptive capacity through detailed examination of empirical findings from a study of small communities in eastern Ontario, Canada currently experiencing a combination of changes in local climatic conditions and rapid demographic change caused by in-migration of urban retirees and out-migration of young, educated people. The combination of changing demographic and climatic patterns has placed increased stress on local social networks that have long been critical to climate adaptation in that region. The case study and literature review are used to create a general typology of the relationship between population change and vulnerability that may be used as a framework for future research in this field. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Geography, University of Ottawa, Room 031 Simard Hall, Ottawa, ON, K1N 6N5, Canada Article History: Registration Date: 18/09/2009 Online Date: 17/12/2009

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2010.01.002 Byline: Lisa Petheram (a), Bruce M. Campbell (b) Abstract: Payments for Environmental Services (PES) is gaining recognition worldwide as a serious option for conservation of ecosystems, as well as potentially improving the livelihoods of people providing environmental services. However, little attention has been paid to research on views of local people in their potential roles as service providers. In this research we explore perspectives of poor people living in a National Park in Vietnam, where introduction of PES is being considered. In-depth interviews and workshops were conducted - with strong emphasis on the use of visual techniques, to help facilitate learning processes and provide insight into local perspectives. From the research, two models were developed to indicate general factors that influence the likelihood of people adopting, and adhering to, PES schemes. We suggest these models can be used to guide the design of PES. Our findings also reveal three main requirements important in design of pro-poor PES: (1) Thorough scoping studies for ensuring that schemes are based on sound understanding of potential providers' perspectives and context. (2) Such studies should emphasise qualitative research and draw on participatory tools, to facilitate open dialogue and co-learning by researchers and participants. (3) Policy makers should consider designing hybridized schemes, i.e., in which PES concepts are combined with integrated conservation and development. Author Affiliation: (a) School for Environmental Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia (b) CGIAR Challenge Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, CCAFS Secretariat, Department of Agriculture and Ecology, Faculty of Life Science, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 21, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark Article History: Received 14 July 2009; Revised 15 December 2009; Accepted 3 January 2010

There is a traditional view suggesting forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (Pregitzer & Euskirchen, 2004), but they cease to serve as a carbon sink as they fully mature (Odum, 1969). Recent modeling of old-growth forest carbon sequestration indicate they continue to serve as a 'net sink' of carbon even after maturity (Carey, Sala, Keane, & Callaway, 2001; Zhou et al., 2006)--sequestering an average of 2.4 +/- 0.8 tC [ha.sup.-1] [yr.sup.-1] (tC = metric tons of carbon; ha = hectare; yr =year), and yielding a ratio of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) to net primary production (NPP) of approximately 0.65 +/- 0.02 (Luyssaert et al., 2008). These figures show the strongest correlation amongst temperate forest regions. Two calculations are made using this carbon sequestration average. One is made identifying the amount of carbon sequestered through a small-scale land protection organization, yielding a net carbon sequestration of approximately 224 metric tons of carbon per year. The other is based on the amount of land required to offset current anthropogenic emissions of carbon in the global carbon budget, showing approximately 235 million hectares of new forest growth would be required to offset current global anthropogenic emissions. One implication of these calculations is the traditional assumption of carbon neutrality increasing with age (Magnani et al., 2007) is incorrect, suggesting mature forest protection may be a favored policy choice for carbon sequestration strategies. Keywords: Climate change, Carbon sequestration, Forests, Policy, Law, 1. Introduction For decades in the United States, land use policies have existed that favor planning to include the maintenance of open space. (Note 1) What may become an important [...]

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2745.2009.01618.x Keywords: ecological genomics; enrichment analysis; gene function; Gene Ontology; microarray; precipitation variability; Rainfall Manipulation Plots; tallgrass prairie; transcription profile; warming Abstract: Summary 1. If we are to understand the mechanisms underlying species responses to climate change in natural systems, studies are needed that focus on responses of non-model species under field conditions. We measured transcriptional profiles of individuals of Andropogon gerardii, a C.sub.4 grass native to North American grasslands, in a field experiment in which both temperature and precipitation were manipulated to simulate key aspects of forecasted climate change. 2. By using microarrays developed for a closely related model species, Zea mays, we were able to compare the relative influence of warming versus altered soil moisture availability on expression levels of over 7000 genes, identify responsive functional groups of genes and correlate changes in gene transcription with physiological responses. 3. We observed more statistically significant shifts in transcription levels of genes in response to thermal stress than in response to water stress. We also identified candidate genes that demonstrated transcription levels closely associated with physiological variables, in particular chlorophyll fluorescence. 4.Synthesis. These results suggest that an ecologically important species responds differently to different environmental aspects of forecast climate change. These translational changes have the potential to influence phenotypic characters and ultimately adaptive responses. Author Affiliation: (1)Department of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA (2)Department of Computer Science, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA (3)Department of Plant Pathology, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164, USA (4)Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO 80523, USA (5)Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO 80523, USA (6)USDA-ARS Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX 76502, USA (7)Department of Biology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA (8)Department of Agronomy, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA (9)Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520, USA Article History: Received 16 June 2009; accepted 16 November 2009 Handling Editor: Joop Ouborg Article note: (*) Correspondence author. E-mail: steven.travers@ndsu.edu

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01409.x Byline: JOHN A. WIENS (*), DOMINIQUE BACHELET ([dagger][double dagger]) Keywords: climate models; climate change; conservation planning; downscaling; scale; short-grass prairie; the nature conservancy Abstract: Abstract: To anticipate the rapidly changing world resulting from global climate change, the projections of climate models must be incorporated into conservation. This requires that the scales of conservation be aligned with the scales of climate-change projections. We considered how conservation has incorporated spatial scale into protecting biodiversity, how the projections of climate-change models vary with scale, and how the two do or do not align. Conservation planners use information about past and current ecological conditions at multiple scales to identify conservation targets and threats and guide conservation actions. Projections of climate change are also made at multiple scales, from global and regional circulation models to projections downscaled to local scales. These downscaled projections carry with them the uncertainties associated with the broad-scale models from which they are derived; thus, their high resolution may be more apparent than real. Conservation at regional or global scales is about establishing priorities and influencing policy. At these scales, the coarseness and uncertainties of global and regional climate models may be less important than what they reveal about possible futures. At the ecoregional scale, the uncertainties associated with downscaling climate models become more critical because the distributions of conservation targets on which plans are founded may shift under future climates. At a local scale, variations in topography and land cover influence local climate, often overriding the projections of broad-scale climate models and increasing uncertainty. Despite the uncertainties, ecologists and conservationists must work with climate-change modelers to focus on the most likely projections. The future will be different from the past and full of surprises; judicious use of model projections at appropriate scales may help us prepare. Abstract (Spanish): Adecuacion de las Multiples Escalas de Conservacion con las Multiples Escalas de Cambio Climatico Resumen: Para anticipar el mundo rapidamente cambiante como resultado del cambio climatico global, se deben incorporar modelos climaticos a la conservacion. Esto requiere que las escalas de conservacion sean alineadas con las escalas de proyecciones de cambio climatico. Consideramos la forma en que la conservacion ha incorporado la escala espacial en la proteccion de la biodiversidad, como varian con la escala las proyecciones de los modelos de cambio climatico y como se alinean o no las dos. Los planificadores de la conservacion utilizan la informacion sobre condiciones ecologicas pasadas y presentes en multiples escalas para identificar amenazas y objetivos de conservacion y orientar acciones de conservacion. Las proyecciones de cambio climatico tambien se hacen en multiples escalas, desde modelos de circulacion global y regional hasta proyecciones a escalas locales. Estas reduccion en la escala de las proyecciones conlleva las incertidumbres asociadas con los modelos de escala amplia de donde se derivan; por lo tanto, su alta resolucion puede ser mas aparente que real. La conservacion en escalas regionales o globales trata de establecer prioridades e influir en las politicas. En estas escalas, la granulosidad y las incertidumbres de los modelos climaticos globales y regionales pueden ser menos importantes que sus revelaciones sobre los futuros posibles. En la escala ecoregional, las incertidumbres asociadas con la reduccion de escala se vuelven mas criticas porque las distribuciones de los objetivos de conservacion, para los que estan hechos los planes, pueden cambiar bajo climas futuros. En la escala local, las variaciones en la topografia y cobertura de suelo influyen en el clima local, lo cual a menudo invalida los modelos climaticos de mayor escala e incrementa la incertidumbre. A pesar de las incertidumbres, los ecologos y conservacionistas deben trabajar con modeladores de cambio climatico para concentrarse en las proyecciones mas probables. El futuro sera diferente del pasado y estara lleno de sorpresas; el uso juicioso de las proyecciones de modelos en escalas apropiadas puede ayudar a prepararnos. Author Affiliation: (*)PRBO Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11, Petaluma, CA 94954, U.S.A., emailjwiens@prbo.org ([dagger])Oregon State University, Department of Biological and Ecological Engineering, Corvallis, OR 97330, U.S.A. Article note: ([double dagger]) Current address: Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333, U.S.A.

To authenticate to the full-text of this article, please visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01403.x Byline: JOSHUA J. LAWLER (*), SARAH L. SHAFER ([dagger]), ANDREW R. BLAUSTEIN ([double dagger]) Keywords: amphibians; bioclimatic models; climate change; climate impacts; dispersal; range shifts; rare species; western hemisphere Abstract: Abstract: Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts. Abstract (Spanish): Proyeccion de Impactos del Clima sobre los Anfibios del Hemisferio Occidental Resumen: Debido a sus requerimientos fisiologicos, sus habilidades de dispersion limitadas y los habitats hidrologicamente sensibles, es muy probable que los anfibios sean muy sensibles a los cambios climaticos en el futuro. Utilizamos tres metodos para elaborar mapas de areas en el hemisferio occidental donde es particularmente probable que los anfibios sean afectados por el cambio climatico. Primero, utilizamos modelos bioclimaticos para proyectar cambios potenciales, impulsados por el clima, en la distribucion de 413 especies de anfibios con base en 20 simulaciones del clima entre 2071 y 2100. Sintetizamos estas proyecciones para producir estimaciones de renovacion de especies. Segundo, elaboramos mapas de la distribucion de 1099 especies con distribucion geografica restringida. Finalmente, utilizando las 20 simulaciones de cambio climatico en el futuro, elaboramos mapas que fueron proyectados consistentemente para recibir menos precipitacion estacional en el proximo siglo y por lo tanto era probable que tuvieran microclimas e hidrologias locales alteradas. La renovacion de especies proyectada fue mayor en los Andes y en partes de Centro America y Mexico, donde, en promedio, las tasas de renovacion excedieron el 60% bajo el menor de dos escenarios de emisiones. Muchas de las especies de distribucion restringida no incluidas en nuestros analisis de cambio de distribucion se concentraron en partes de los Andes y de America Central y en el Bosque Atlantico de Brasil. La mayor parte de America Central, suroeste de America del Norte y partes de America del Sur consistentemente fueron proyectadas para experimentar disminucion en la precipitacion para fines de este siglo. La combinacion de los resultados de los tres analisis resalto varias areas en las que es probable que los anfibios sean afectados significativamente por el cambio climatico por multiples razones. Algunas porciones del sur de America Central fueron proyectadas simultaneamente para experimentar una tasa de renovacion alta, incluir muchas especies de distribucion restringida adicionales y fueron proyectadas consistentemente para recibir menos precipitacion. En conjunto, nuestros tres analisis constituyen una evaluacion potencial de la vulnerabilidad geografica de los anfibios al cambio climatico y como tal proporciona directrices a gran escala para la orientacion de los esfuerzos de conservacion. Author Affiliation: (*)College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, U.S.A., emailjlawler@u.washington.edu ([dagger])U.S. Geological Survey, Betsy A. Bancroft, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, U.S.A. ([double dagger])Department of Zoology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, U.S.A.

We assess the response of pack ice penguins, Emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Adelie (Pygoscelis adeliae), to habitat variability and, then, by modeling habitat alterations, the qualitative changes to their populations, size and distribution, as Earth's average tropospheric temperature reaches 2[degrees]C above preindustrial levels (ca. 1860), the benchmark set by the European Union in efforts to reduce greenhouse gases. First, we assessed models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) on penguin performance duplicating existing conditions in the Southern Ocean. We chose four models appropriate for gauging changes to penguin habitat: GFDL-CM2.1, GFDL-CM2.0, MIROC3.2(hi-res), and MRI-CGCM2.3.2a. Second, we analyzed the composited model ENSEMBLE to estimate the point of 2[degrees]C warming (2025-2052) and the projected changes to sea ice coverage (extent, persistence, and concentration), sea ice thickness, wind speeds, precipitation, and air temperatures. Third, we considered studies of ancient colonies and sediment cores and some recent modeling, which indicate the (space/time) large/centennial-scale penguin response to habitat limits of all ice or no ice. Then we considered results of statistical modeling at the temporal interannual-decadal scale in regard to penguin response over a continuum of rather complex, meso-to large-scale habitat conditions, some of which have opposing and others interacting effects. The ENSEMBLE meso/decadal-scale output projects a marked narrowing of penguins' zoogeographic range at the 2[degrees]C point. Colonies north of 70[degrees] S are projected to decrease or disappear: ~50% of Emperor colonies (40% of breeding population) and ~75% of Adelie colonies (70% of breeding population), but limited growth might occur south of 73[degrees] S. Net change would result largely from positive responses to increase in polynya persistence at high latitudes, overcome by decreases in pack ice cover at lower latitudes and, particularly for Emperors, ice thickness. Adelie Penguins might colonize new breeding habitat where concentrated pack ice diverges and/or disintegrating ice shelves expose coastline. Limiting increase will be decreased persistence of pack ice north of the Antarctic Circle, as this species requires daylight in its wintering areas. Adelies would be affected negatively by increasing snowfall, predicted to increase in certain areas owing to intrusions of warm, moist marine air due to changes in the Polar Jet Stream. Key words: Adelie Penguin; Antarctica; climate change; climate modeling; Emperor Penguin; habitat optimum; sea ice; 2[degrees]C warming.