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Purpose. To analyse problems and features of the formation of perspective concepts and scenarios for the development of the latest structures of energy supply systems for Ukraine in the context of the energy transition and European integration. Methodology. Theoretical studies, analysis, and generalization of scientific and practical results along with the comparative analysis. Findings. The European Green Deal contributes to the wide development of relevant RES-based systems in the EU countries. Ukraine has also declared its active position regarding the issues of low-carbon development and “green” transition with the formation of relevant implementation scenarios until 2035, 2050, and 2070. The paper analyses the current state and structure of the electricity supply system in Germany and Ukraine on their ways to low-carbon development of the energy sector and economy. As a result of the conducted research, it is possible to determine further rational steps for effective transformation of the electric power industry according to the strategy of pragmatic or low-carbon development with further measures to modernize the nuclear and thermal energy sectors and moderate RES development. Development of rational structures of electric power systems of new technological order is a constantly relevant, science-intensive direction, which brings serious changes to the traditional raw-resource economy and energy industry. Originality. The conducted comprehensive analysis of the current state and prospects for the development of the structure of electric power complexes of Ukraine and Germany makes it possible to formulate high-priority rational steps in achieving energy independence and energy security, taking into account low-carbon development of the national economy. Practical value. The represented analytics can be used to ensure sustainable development of Ukrainian energy industry, to form an outlook on problems, prospects, and aspects of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the generation system development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the incentives market participants have in the German electricity balancing mechanism. Strategic over and undersupply positions are the result of existing stochastic arbitrage opportunities between the spot market and the balancing mechanism. Clear indications for strategic behavior can be observed in aggregate market data. These structural imbalances increase the need for reserve capacity, raise system security concerns, and therefore place significant costs on consumers. The underlying problem is the disconnect between spot market, reserve capacity market and balancing mechanism. Alternative market design options discussed in this paper suggest better alignment between these markets/mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As most other industrialized countries, Germany experienced three major changes in its energy mix in the last two centuries, namely the respective transitions to coal, oil, and nuclear power. This paper discusses the reasons and consequences of these changes with respect to energy consumption, energy prices, and growth. One major finding is that each energy transition led to a devaluation of traditional locational advantages such as the existence of local sources of water power or coal beds. Another important observation is that most of the energy transitions were accompanied by significant government subsidies aiming at either promoting new energy sources or reducing the social hardship associated with the decline of traditional power industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This paper presents a method to dampen the variations in the output of aggregated wind power through geographic allocation of wind power generation sites. The method, which is based on the sequential optimization of site localization, is applied to the Nordic countries and Germany, using meteorologic wind speed data as the input. The results show that the variability in aggregated wind power output mitigates by applying sequential optimization. For the data used in this work, the coefficient of variation (standard deviation/mean) was 0.54 for the optimized aggregation of sites, as compared with 0.91 for the present day installation. An optimal allocation of wind power generation site reduces the need for dispatch and other measures to deal with the intermittent nature of wind power. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-temperature fuel cells are one of the devices currently investigated for an integration into distributed power supply grids. Such distributed grids aim at the simultaneous production of thermal energy and electricity. To maximize the efficiency of fuel cell systems, it is reasonable to track the point of maximum electric power production and to operate the system in close vicinity to this point. However, variations of gas mass flows, especially the concentration of hydrogen contained in the anode gas, as well as variations of the internal temperature distribution in the fuel cell stack module lead to the fact that the maximum power point changes in dependence of the aforementioned phenomena. Therefore, this paper first proposes a real-time capable stochastic filter approach for the local identification of the electric power characteristic of the fuel cell. Second, based on this estimate, a maximum power point tracking procedure is derived. It is based on an iteration procedure under consideration of the estimation accuracy of the stochastic filter and adjusts the fuel cell's electric current so that optimal operating points are guaranteed. Numerical simulations, based on real measured data gathered at a test rig available at the Chair of Mechatronics at the University of Rostock, Germany, conclude this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geothermal Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plants have tremendous worldwide potential for the utilization of low- and medium-temperature geothermal resources. However, monitoring of such a system is associated with special challenges for plant operators since the generated electrical power fluctuates strongly, which is caused by mainly two reasons: Firstly, due to the changing condensation conditions caused by air-cooled condensers, and secondly, due to the formation of scaling and fouling. Therefore, the process parameters of a geothermal ORC plant are highly variable, both in terms of diurnal and seasonal fluctuations. Considering the currently applied control software in commercial ORC plants, these fluctuations result in challenges regarding a reliable identification of potential degradation processes within the ORC process. This paper presents a novel analytical and data-based methodology for advanced monitoring of the main components of a two-staged subcritical geothermal ORC system in Southern Germany. These components are the heat exchanger, turbine and air-cooled condenser. For this purpose, operational data from more than three years were preprocessed and evaluated. For the shell-and-tube evaporator, this work applies an equation-based simulation model for the calculation of the thermal resistance due to scaling and fouling. For the turbine and condenser, polynomial functions of various degrees and different objective functions for the numerical computation of regression coefficients are examined. Regression models for three years of operation of the investigated geothermal plant were computed and compared with each other. The results indicate that there are no significant negative changes in the operational performance of most ORC main components during the investigated time period. However, negative operational changes are detected over a three-year period for one turbine of the ORC system. The detailed evaluation of the turbine data reveal a decrease of the normalized isentropic efficiency by 10%, which is significantly higher than the calculated RMSE of the developed correlations, thus indicating a clear performance reduction of the turbine. The developed advanced monitoring methodology allows the operator detailed and accurate assessment of the ORC components conditions, which can not be provided by the software solutions of the commercial ORC manufacturer. Furthermore, the presented methodology can also be applied to other thermal cycle systems with similar components, such as the Kalina Cycle. Finally, a user-friendly software application, developed with the MATLAB® App Designer, is presented. The developed software tool facilitates operators to easily and precisely monitor the operation of the main components of a geothermal ORC plant. • Novel analytical and data-based methodology for advanced monitoring of ORC systems • Equation-based simulation model for shell-and-tube evaporators of ORC systems • Data-based simulation model for turbines and condensers of ORC systems • Development of a software application for advanced monitoring of ORC systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity generation from renewable energy is increasing globally. However, in most electricity systems this growth comes at a price in the form of increased costs. This paper quantifies the costs for renewable energy installations built in Germany between 2000 and 2011. Our analysis sheds light on the ‘Energiewende’ in Germany, which is a front runner in the worldwide renewables rollout. To evaluate cost, benefits and policy instruments, the methodology can also be applied to other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land is a scarce resource, especially when its multiple demands for use are taken into consideration. With more than 25,000 wind turbines installed currently, wind power plays an integral role in the development of renewable energy technologies in Germany. In addition to the positive effects, e.g. reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, wind power also has negative effects on the environment and human well-being. With this in mind, it is important to identify most suitable locations for wind turbines that accounts for different aspects of sustainability. The approach suggested here is a practical method to identify sustainable sites at local to national scale. Additionally the paper compares emerging technology (system friendly wind turbines) with standard technology with respect to environmental concerns and assesses the current performance of wind power in a specific study region. The study finds that the approach enables sustainable locations to be identified in a feasible but scientifically robust manner, and that the system friendly technology outperforms the standard technology in each case. The current allocation of wind turbines is less efficient since repowering and reallocation means that more electricity can be generated by fewer turbines. Furthermore, the impact on the environment and human well-being can also be reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides answers to questions raised by Hirth and Ziegenhagen [1] regarding the “German paradox” in the balancing power markets. We show that in spite of the increasing energy production from variable renewable energy sources, there is no need for a higher demand of balancing power in Germany because adaptations in the energy market design were undertaken and Grid Control Cooperations led to immense efficiency savings. Additionally, we investigate the price developments in the German Secondary balancing power market. We find evidence that the suppliers coordinate on a price level which is (far) above the competitive level and that they orientate their power bids towards previous auction prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather conditions critically affect electricity demand. Recently, weather changes have also affected the electricity supply because renewable energy sources have been diffused. Some studies have revealed that weather conditions affect electricity supply or demand. However, few studies have revealed the integrated effects of weather changes on the electricity supply, demand, and market prices. This study aims to reveal the regional weather impact on the German electricity spot market based on combined hourly weather and electricity market data using structural equation modeling. Our results reveal that weather changes affect both demand and supply. First, the effect of weather on electricity supply differs in each state. Our estimation results show a more complex effect of an increase in solar radiation. Second, the electricity demand is also affected by weather conditions, particularly by temperature. Additionally, regional differences in weather conditions create a complex structure of electricity supply and demand. Our results indicate that extreme weather events in specific areas have a significant impact on the electricity market price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defossilizing the energy and industrial systems and transformation towards a circular economy have versatile impacts on the availability and demand of alternative resources. However, systematic analyses on these interrelations are very sparse. Thus, this paper investigates the interlinkages between the energy transition and the transformation towards a circular economy in Germany. The study is based on material flow analysis models of the steel and cement industries as well as the coal and lignite power plants in order to depict a comprehensive description of the material, energy and emission flows of these sectors and their interdependencies. The analyses prove the inherent interrelation between energy transition and circular economy. On the one hand, energy transition does not only bear various techno-economic challenges and have substantial effects on the production costs, but it also affects the availability of secondary materials. For instance, the coal phase-out and the introduction of green steel imply that the current supplies of blast furnace slag, fly ash and FGD gypsum cannot be maintained. On the other hand, circularity approaches can also influence the energy transition. For example, banning single-use plastics and increasing recycling rates of plastics can deprive the cement industry from significant amounts of energy resources with low-carbon footprint. Contrariwise, CO 2 recycling can promote the energy transition by means of mitigating CO 2 emissions via carbonation. Therefore, the study can help policymakers to understand the indirect effects of existing and future policies. Also, it can help to develop future strategies to handle associated impacts and avoid material shortages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially explicit agent-based models (ABM) of innovation diffusion have experienced growing attention over the last few years. The ABM presented in this paper investigates the adoption of green electricity tariffs by German households. The model represents empirically characterised household types as agent types which differ in their decision preferences regarding green electricity and other psychological properties. Agent populations are initialised based on spatially explicit socio demographic data describing the sociological lifestyles found in Germany. For model calibration and validation we use historical data on the German green electricity market including a rich dataset of spatially explicit customer data of one of the major providers of green electricity. In order to assess the similarity of the simulation results to historical observations we introduce two validation measures which capture different aspects of the green electricity diffusion. One measure is based on the residuals of spatially-aggregated time series of model indicators and the other measure considers a temporally aggregated but spatially disaggregated indicator of spatial spread. Finally, we demonstrate the descriptive richness of the model by investigating simulation outputs of the calibrated model in more detail. In particular, the results provide insights into the dynamics of the spatial and lifestyle heterogeneity "underneath" the diffusion curve of green electricity in Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy transition is dramatically changing the electricity supply industry in Germany implying two big trends. First, significant market entry by third parties (i.e., non-incumbents). Based on empirical evidence, we argue that the emergence of third parties is the immediate result of the large-scale integration of renewable energy sources. The electricity supply industry is changing quickly from a top-down, single-firm game to a decentralized multiple-player system, with far-reaching consequences for the governance and regulatory structure. Second, the incumbent players are facing disruptive challenges: under pressure of the energy transition, conventional centralized generation is losing profit margins very quickly. We analyze the disruptive challenges and sketch how the incumbents respond by splitting their activities into an old business, which is likely to be phased-out, and a new, future-oriented business: renewable energies, the distribution business, and customer-oriented solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A high standard of security of electricity supply comes at serious electricity system costs. However, these system costs have to be balanced with the economic costs induced by an insecure supply of electricity. Following a macroeconomic approach, we analyze the economic costs imposed by potential power interruptions in Germany. Using an extensive dataset on industries and households, we estimate both Values of Lost Load and the associated hourly costs of power interruptions for different German regions and sectors. We find that interruption costs vary significantly over time, between sectors and regions. Peaking at midday on a Monday in December at 750 Mio € per hour, the average total national outage costs amount to approximately 430 Mio € per hour. A missing gigawatt hour creates average outage costs of about 7.6 Mio €. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This inquiry employs ideas advanced by institutionalist thinker Paul Dale Bush to shed light on technology diffusion in Germany’s electrical generation and distribution industry. Research findings suggest that what Bush labeled as ceremonial dominance affects outcomes in technology selection. Evidence suggests that fossil fuel and nuclear technologies have remained favored by power producers despite the externalized environmental costs to society associated with their implementations. Advances in government policy have indeed created a framework that favorably accommodates renewable energy technologies. However, what Bush labeled ceremonial dominance is shown to persist and to contribute to ceremonial encapsulation. Consequently, renewable energy technologies have diffused only to the point that the powers behind the industry remain in dominant positions. Although there is measurable, incremental technological change in the electrical power industry, in light of the urgency of climate change problems, technologies supporting the electrical power system need to be selected more judiciously. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

World primary copper production is expected to increase due to growing demand. Reflecting the geographical divergence of copper deposits and demanding industries, copper is produced by various production paths, differing in regional and technological aspects and related environmental pressures. For the mitigation of environmental pressures related to global material flows and a more sustainable resource management, policy makers, producers and buyers require information on regional resource efficiencies and effects of the key processes within the global production chain. This study quantifies material flows of refined copper production and environmental pressures along the pyro- and hydrometallurgical paths for Chile and Germany. Inventories for involved unit processes are distinguished by region and most commonly applied technologies, including electric power supply. Different production paths are compared by environmental pressure indicators (primary energy requirements, total material requirements, water consumption, GHG emissions, solid waste disposal, sulphur dioxide and arsenic emissions). Alternative options for improvement of technologies and supply patterns in Chile and Germany are compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrification of the transport sector together with an increasing share of renewable energies has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions significantly. This transformation requires the rollout of charging infrastructure, which has an impact on power grids. For grid planning and dimensioning purposes, it is crucial to assess this rapidly growing impact. We present an approach using socio-economic data such as income levels together with a model for demographic changes to estimate where electric mobility is likely to be concentrated, especially during the transformation phase. We present a total-cost-of-ownership approach for the ramp-up of electric mobility, considering an increased penetration of renewable energies. With the city of Wiesbaden in Germany as an example for an application area, the possible expansion of vehicle ownership and charging points is modeled on the level of individual buildings. Compared to a simpler approach, the detailed model results in more consistent charging point allocations, higher line/transformer loadings and lower bus voltages for the investigated grids. Predicting future distributions of charging points with such a level of detail in terms of ramp-up and spatial resolution proves potentially beneficial for grid analysis and planning purposes, especially in urban areas, where infrastructure changes are expensive and time-consuming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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