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In the context of the debate on Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) under inflation targeting regimes, this study analysis the ERPT in inflation targeting and non-targeting economies of ASEAN-5. Employing a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (N-ARDL) framework on data from 2000: Q1 to 2019 Q:4, our key empirical findings suggest that the exchange rate shocks do lead to significant changes in inflation. There is also prima facie evidence of asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks in Singapore, Philippines, and Indonesia and the results varied between and among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries. The results also varied in the short and long-terms, whereas in the long-run, asymmetric effects of real exchange rate persist only for Indonesia and Singapore. Regardless of the inflation targeting or non-targeting regime, oil price shocks are found to be the most crucial factor with the largest impact on inflation in ASEAN-5 economies. Money supply and output growth also found to have some effect on inflation, though the results varied among countries. Our findings have profound implication for monetary policy formulation and price stability.

Does monetary policy react systematically to macroeconomic innovations? In a sample of 16 countries – operating under various monetary regimes – we find that monetary policy decisions, as expressed in yield curve movements, do react to macroeconomic innovations and these reactions reflect the monetary policy regime. While we find evidence of the primacy of the price stability objective in the inflation targeting countries, links to inflation and the output gap are generally weaker and less systematic in money-targeting and multiple-objective countries.

We examine the time-varying causal link between monetary policies and macroeconomy, macroprudential policies and financial stability in China. We find that expansionary monetary policy leads to output growth, tightening monetary policy leads to price stability, and tightening quantitative monetary policy or expanding price-based monetary policy is effective in maintaining financial stability. In response to stagnation or deflation, the central bank implements an expansionary monetary policy. To prevent financial turbulence, the central bank pursues an expansionary quantitative monetary policy or a tight price-based monetary policy. In addition, macroprudential policy should be used in conjunction with monetary policy to maintain financial stability.

This speech highlights two channels through which globalization poses challenges for monetary policy. The first channel is through the global determination of the average world natural real rate of interest, which implies that saving and investment shifts abroad can influence the domestic interest rate setting consistent with price stability. The second channel is through global digital payments systems, which may compromise domestic policy sovereignty through effects on both monetary and financial stability.

The introduction of the internet as a sales channel has pressed hotel companies to adopt new pricing policies, most notably revenue management (RM). These techniques have been heralded as an essential requirement for hotel companies to maximise profits. The present study, however, will show that this claim is not realistic for a leading, highly competitive destination like Ibiza. The analysis finds that there is strong price stability and that only a few hotels use RM. It is common, however, to find qualitative RM that involves removing cheaper room types and room-and-board options from the available offering when demand is high.

In emerging market economies, transmission of monetary policy through the foreign exchange market is complicated by the coexistence of financial restrictions and arbitrages. Using China as an example, we show that the coexistence of exchange rate interventions, capital controls and an onshore-offshore exchange rate differential makes the long run equilibrium in the currency market nonlinear. Disturbances to this nonlinear long run equilibrium could offset the impact of monetary policy actions on domestic price stability. Omitting such nonlinearity leads to biased inference on the effectiveness of monetary policy.

The role of inflation versus output and exchange rate in designing monetary policy in Egypt has been subject to considerable debate in literature, even after the proclamation of price stability as ...

We explore to what extent official interest rate changes can potentially in a procyclical manner impact different financial cycle indicators (credit/GDP, debt service ratio, house prices and stock market indices). We test this on data covering 1995−2016 in 21 countries and the euro area using the Concordance index and Monetary policy procyclicality ratio. Results show that this was not a widespread phenomenon, but there was significant heterogenenity across countries. The procyclicality of interest rate changes was usually higher when financial cycle gaps were increasing and lower when they were decreasing. On average, central banks in several larger economies were running potentially less procyclical monetary policy than those in the smaller ones. The resulting propensity of conflicts between achieving price and financial stability by central banks was low, as only in 10% of the cases the objectives were conflicting (usually when inflation was below the target and the credit cycle was in an expansion phase).

The question of whether domestic prices respond to either official exchange rate or parallel exchange rate movement is a key research issue especially in an oil-dependent developing country like Nigeria with rising fiscal pressures and a vibrant parallel market. Also from the monetary authority perspective, it is imperative to know if prices respond symmetrically and/or asymmetrically to both official and parallel exchange rates movement. Consequently, this study examines the response of domestic prices to both official and parallel exchange rates movement for the period 1995Q1-2019Q1 with the Shin et al. (In: Horrace WC, Sickles RC (eds) Festchrift in Honour of Peter Schmidt. Springer, New York, pp 281–414, 2014) nonlinear ARDL approach. The results provide support for prices responding symmetrically to parallel rates than the official rate especially in periods of large exchange rate premium. However, prices only respond differently to depreciation and appreciation of the official exchange rate in Nigeria. Consequently, the government needs to ensure some levels of fiscal austerity and possible exchange rate unification when the premium gets large if the intention is to insulate domestic prices from fiscal pressures. Also, the Central Bank of Nigeria needs to take cognizance of possible asymmetric relationship in their decisions to ensure price stability so as not to distort monetary policy effect.

The central banks of developed countries and those in the region of Central Europe responded to the global financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent economic recession by considerably easing monetary conditions and using new monetary policy tools. One of those tools was the entry into the so far uncharted territory of negative interest rates. The passage of some years after the inception of these new tools has allowed the emergence of new empirical literature, which addresses their effects and effectiveness. The primary objective of this paper is to examine and summarize the empirical literature that deals with the effective lower limit of interest rates, especially in relation to the banking sector and bank interest margins. We then use empirical findings from other countries and apply them to the Czech Republic and draw conclusions for the future monetary policy of the CNB. Our results confirm that the CNB has got enough manoeuvring room even in the area of negative interest rates, which it can take advantage of either for the purpose of price stability, or for more effective management of FX operations.

Monetary policy played a dominant role in ensuring macroeconomic stability in the advanced economies for two decades, from the mid-1980s to 2007, and appeared to be a very effective tool for smoothing economic cycles and maintaining price stability. After the global financial crisis of 2007—2009 the effectiveness of monetary policy was put under question, since it did not succeed in ensuring rapid economic recovery in the advanced economies despite massive use of both conventional and unconventional monetary tools. The paper addresses the factors which are responsible for the weakening of the monetary policy effectiveness including global disinflation, the Phillips curve flattening, the effective lower bound problem and the neutral real rate decline. Unconventional monetary policy tools, such as the “helicopter money”, targeted refinancing and other prospective tools, are analyzed. We critically assess recommendations of the Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) as the most consistent heterodox theory. Based on the analysis, we draw conclusions about the possibility of monetary policy weakening in Russia in the foreseeable future and desirability of the implementation of the hybrid fiscal-monetary measures.

Causal estimation of the short‐term effects of tariff‐rate quotas (TRQs) on vegetable producer prices is hampered by the large variety and different growing seasons of vegetables and is therefore rarely performed. We quantify the effects of Swiss seasonal TRQs on domestic producer prices of a variety of vegetables based on a difference‐in‐differences estimation using a novel dataset of weekly producer prices for Switzerland and neighbouring countries. We find that TRQs increase prices of most vegetables by more than 20% above the prices in neighbouring countries during the main harvest time for most vegetables and even more than 50% for some vegetables. The effects are stronger for more perishable vegetables and for conventionally produced ones compared with organic vegetables. However, we do not find clear‐cut effects of TRQs on the week‐to‐week price volatility of vegetables although the overall lower price volatility in Switzerland compared with neighbouring countries might be a result of the TRQ system in place.

This paper examined the impact of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. The paper employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Granger causality approach using quarterly data for the period 2002 - 2017. Empirical results showed evidence of a long run positive effect of fiscal deficit on inflation in Namibia. This suggests that fiscal deficit has a direct effect on inflation in Namibia. The study also found a unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to inflation in Namibia. The study confirmed that South Africa’s prices have positive effect on inflation in Namibia. The key policy implication drawn for the result is that if not contained, high negative fiscal balances could impair the monetary policy objective of price stability. It is therefore advised that fiscal and monetary policies need to be well coordinated to bring fiscal deficit within acceptable level. Given that the main monetary policy goal in Namibia is to achieve and maintain price stability, the results in this study suggest that monitoring budget deficits and price developments in South Africa to develop informed policies is one way to achieve this objective.

This paper develops a calibrated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model incorporating a banking sector and some unique features of China’s macroeconomic policies to simulate China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. The quantitative results show, first, that the interest rate is a better instrument for China’s monetary policy than the required reserve ratio (RRR) when the central bank is solely concerned about price stability; second, that the loan-to-value ratio is a very useful macroprudential tool for China’s financial stability, and the RRR could be used as an instrument for both objectives; third, monetary and macroprudential policies could be either complements or substitutes in China, depending on the choices of instruments for the two policies. Our policy experiments recommend three combination choices of instruments for China’s monetary and macroprudential policies. (JEL codes: E52, E61and G18)

The literature documents the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in controlling systemic risk, but empirical evidence of a systemwide framework that effectively coordinates the two policies is lacking. This study assesses the effectiveness, channels, and timeliness of monetary and macroprudential policies’ impacts on systemic risk in China from January 2009 to June 2018, and contributes to the discussion of how to coordinate these policies. Using an index synthesized from 28 indicators to proxy China’s systemic risk, we find the following: (1) A contractionary monetary (macroprudential) shock increases (reduces) systemic risk over the entire shock time period. (2) Macroprudential (monetary) policy is effective in the long (short) term. (3) The systemic risk intervention effect of monetary (macroprudential) policy is channeled through inflation control (asset price stability).

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether economic uncertainty affects narrow money demand in New Zealand and whether the specified money-demand function remains stable over time. New Zealand adopted inflation-targeting in the early 1990s by discarding monetary-targeting or any other strategy of monetary policy for price stability on the grounds that instability in the narrow money-demand function might sever the relationship among money, output, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. This paper specifies an augmented money-demand function for an open economy that includes economic uncertainty and inflation volatility as two additional determinants of money demand. Quarterly data for New Zealand for the period 1995Q1–2017Q4 is used to determine whether these variables remain significant in an augmented money-demand function in this country. The empirical results, obtained by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, suggest that there exists a cointegral relationship among variables in the specified model and that economic uncertainty negatively affects narrow money demand in New Zealand. Further, the empirical results, obtained by the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) approach, suggest that economic uncertainty affects narrow money demand asymmetrically. An increase in economic uncertainty lowers narrow money demand, while a decrease in economic uncertainty does not increase – and​ instead seems to decrease – narrow money demand. Unlike with economic uncertainty, an increase in inflation volatility, which represents inflation uncertainty, increases narrow money demand. Although it is not conclusively established in this paper, the effect of inflation uncertainty on narrow money-demand seems symmetric. The narrow money-demand function is found in this paper to have remained stable irrespective of whether the model is estimated by the ARDL or NARDL approach. This paper draws the conclusion that the abandonment of money in the formulation of monetary policy strategy, such as inflation-targeting in New Zealand, cannot be justified on the grounds of instability in the narrow money-demand function.

We analyze inflation dynamics in Turkey by estimating inflation persistence for the period 1990–2018. Inflation persistence is defined as the speed with which inflation returns to its equilibrium level (long-term mean) after a shock and we apply a time-varying parameter estimation method based on the Kalman filter. We find that inflation persistence increases and exhibits high volatility in periods of high inflation in which inflation expectations and pricing behaviors are negatively affected. We further find that with institutional changes in the conduct of monetary policy, inflation started to decline after 2003 and inflation became less persistent. Monetary policy appears to be effective at maintaining price stability until 2016. Empirical results show that there is a significant rise in inflation persistence starting in 2016 accompanied by an upward trend in inflation.

Entrepreneurs start and grow their ventures in a widely varying set of institutional contexts. One differentiator is a country’s regulatory efficiency which encompasses the freedom to start and to run a business without excessive government interventions around registering, hiring, and firing employees, and price controls on currency. The efficiency of regulations varies substantially among countries and imposes additional costs and risks on entrepreneurs’ activities. We integrate insights from institutional theory and recent literature on gender and entrepreneurship to better understand how a country’s regulatory efficiency affects male and female entrepreneurs’ employment growth ambitions. We explore three aspects of regulatory efficiency: business freedom (e.g., to start, operate, and close a venture), labor freedom (e.g., laws around minimum wage, layoffs, severance), and monetary freedom (e.g., price stability) using data from over 47,000 entrepreneurs in 68 countries. We find that entrepreneurs’ growth ambitions are higher in countries with more efficient regulations, particularly those countries characterized by fewer labor law restrictions and greater monetary freedoms. These findings are further exacerbated by gender by such that, relative to their female counterparts, male entrepreneurs have significantly greater venture growth ambitions. Our paper contributes to the discussion on how formal institutions influence women and men entrepreneurs in distinct ways.

Employing Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model where factors are obtained using the principal component analysis (PCA) and the parameters of the model are estimated using Vector Autoregression framework, we analyse how changes in monetary policy variables impact inflation, output, money supply, and the financial sector in India. Our results for the period 2001:04 to 2016:03 show that the benchmark FAVAR model showed more reliable results than baseline VAR model. Benchmark FAVAR model shows the existence of weak ‘liquidity puzzle’ in India. The impulse responses from the FAVAR approach reveal that monetary policy is more efficient in explaining the variations in inflation rather than stimulating output indicating its effectiveness in attaining the objective of price stability.

Available empirical evidence on the significance of the (micro) risk-taking channel of monetary policy is not enough to indicate a threat to financial stability. Evidence of risk-taking with systemic risk implications is necessary. Statistical measures that capture systemic risk in all its forms within a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive model suggest that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have resulted in systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector. Systemic risk has taken the form of an increase in the banking sector’s vulnerability via contagion and interconnectedness. Banks’ balance sheets, however, do not account for the full transmission from (micro) risk taking to systemic risk-taking. The main policy implication is that a persistently accommodative monetary policy may drive a monetary authority with a price stability mandate to consider a possible trade-off with financial stability. At a minimum, coordination between monetary and macro-prudential policies requires serious consideration.

After the global financial crisis, it was observed that price stability alone would not ensure financial stability. The new paradigm indeed insists on the inclusion of financial stability as an additional macroeconomic objective. In this context, it is essential to understand how exactly is the new objective of financial stability will be placed in the existing framework. Also, the efficacy of monetary policy in this regard needs to be thoroughly discussed. This paper probes into the employability of monetary policy as a tool to achieve financial stability. We, therefore, compare between interest rates obtained from the standard Taylor rule and asset price augmented Taylor rule in the Indian context. The results suggest that targeting asset prices can be one of the effective ways to contain financial instabilities and consequent economic slumps.

International audience; We examine whether food price shocks are a major source of macroeconomic fluctuations. We estimate a small open economy DSGE model using an alternative Taylor rule applied to Chilean data. The empirical evidence suggests that food inflation played a non-trivial role in shaping Chile's de facto monetary policy actions. Consistent with its commitment to price stability, the central bank increases the policy rate in reaction to food inflation. Despite an immediate monetary policy reaction to a food price shock, the policy rate gradually tapers off. This is due to a second-round effect on non-food inflation propagated by the food price shock. A main finding is that monetary policy that targets headline inflation is welfare improving.

We investigate the optimal design and effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in promoting macroeconomic (price) and financial stability for the South African economy. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a housing market, a banking sector and the role of macroprudential and monetary policies. Based on the parameter estimates from the estimation, we conduct an optimal rule analysis and an efficient policy frontier analysis, and compare the dynamics of the model under different policy regimes. We find that a policy regime that combines a standard monetary policy rule and a macroprudential policy rule delivers a more stable economic system with price and financial stability. A policy regime that combines an augmented monetary policy (policy rate reacts to financial conditions) with macroprudential policy is better at attenuating the effects of financial shocks, but at a much higher cost of price instability. Our findings suggest that monetary policy should focus solely on its primary objective of price stability and let macroprudential policy facilitate financial stability on its own.

We propose a new flexible inflation targeting index, the economic stability index (ESI), that could enable the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement more effective monetary policy for the euro area (EA). This index incorporates separately weighed house prices and stock prices. Furthermore, by weighting the housing sector in both normal and bubble events, it enhances the forecasting ability and accuracy of this new index. We demonstrate the resilience of this index using a range of robustness checks with multiple empirical methods. Our index that is equipped with these forward‐looking variables enhances the ability to sense potential economic risks, whilst improving price stability and minimizing the output gap variance. This broader index may assist the ECB in addressing the challenges of the long‐term decline of neutral interest rates in many EA economies and the weakening of the inflation/unemployment relationship under the Philips curve. The complexity of the ECB relationship with different fiscal authorities prevents any changes without significant structural variance. The ECB, however, can use a stabilization tool with enhanced foreseeability such as this ESI to improve stability without making significant structural changes.

This study has analysed the role of the domestic economic environment and regional markets (Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong and China) in explaining the dynamics of Vietnamese stock market. In so doing, we employed a TVSVAR framework which accounts for time variations (in coefficients as well as in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations) on the data from July 2000 to December 2016. Our key findings suggested that the easing of monetary and credit conditions, stable and stronger currency and economic growth have played a significant and positive role in the development of the stock market in Vietnam. Inflation shocks did have a negative impact which implied that in policy setting the price stability is very important for the financial stability in Vietnam. The Vietnamese stock market is also heavily influenced by the regional markets, as there is strong evidence of co-movement. However, it was also witnessed that despite having a similar direction of impact and co-movement, different markets have an influence of different degrees and intensity on the Vietnamese stock market. Lastly, we also witnessed that as compared to the Global Financial Crisis, the recent periods showed comparatively lesser responsiveness. This could be associated with the intensive reaction during the period of financial turmoil as well as with an increase in the stability of the Vietnamese stock market as it matures.

In the context of the debate on the global imbalances, this study investigates the determinants of US trade balance in a Non-linear ARDL framework which accounts for the asymmetric and nonlinear effects of real effective exchange rate dynamics. Drawing on the data from 1994Q1 to 2018Q1, our key empirical findings suggest significant evidence of short and long-run asymmetries in the relationship between the real effective exchange rate, US trade balance and its determinants. An asymmetric cumulative dynamic multiplier analysis shows evidence of an asymmetric J-curve. Furthermore, we find that the price stability, productivity, domestic savings and fiscal deficit/discipline are crucial for the US trade balance in the short to long term. Empirical findings of this study contribute to the contemporary debate on the US trade deficit and have profound policy implications for the competitiveness of the US economy and its external balance.

One strand of empirical literature finds that central bank independence (CBI) lowers inflation. Another strand of literature finds that low inflation is a key determinant of reform towards increase...

This paper examine aggregate financial stress index for India is constructed by taking monthly data from different segments of the financial market like money market, bond market, equity market, foreign exchange market, and the banking sector, for the period March 2007 to December 2016. The interrelationship and feedback effect between financial stress, economic growth and price stability are tested by using correlation and an unrestricted VAR model. The impulse response function of the VAR model shows that financial stress leads to decline in growth after a lag period and higher growth rate for a longer period of time increases stress in the financial system. The variance decomposition result shows that the contribution of FSI to the variation of other variables are not much high but other variables can contribute to the variation in FSI to some extent.

The aim of this paper is to provide a critical review of some recent developments in macroeconomics. We discuss the introduction of financial frictions in New Keynesian models, which is said to account for the increasing influence of financial markets, institutions and products in real-world economies. For this purpose, we compare the macro dynamics of a benchmark NCM-DSGE model with the behaviour of the same model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism. Our simulation exercises show that the financial accelerator mechanism can be regarded as an effective, though indirect, way to account for hysteresis in potential output. A fundamental policy corollary follows that central banks should pursue financial stability, rather than price stability, and target current output growth, rather than output gap. Such an unconventional result is obtained by a simple macroeconomic amendment to an otherwise conventional NCM-DSGE model.

Inflation expectations are known to be quite heterogeneous across agents. We investigate whether this heterogeneity is primarily due to differences in people’s understanding of the inflation process and of the goals and intentions of the central bank. Using micro data from a survey conducted among 2000 Austrian households, we construct an indicator of “inflation literacy” from several questions on people’s knowledge about different aspects of inflation. We find that this indicator helps explain both the level and the uncertainty of inflation expectations: Households with relatively higher levels of inflation literacy tend to have lower and more accurate short-term and long-term inflation expectations. Interestingly, however, they are less certain about their inflation expectations than people with lower levels of inflation literacy. We also find that people’s trust in the central bank and in its ability to maintain price stability significantly dampens their inflation expectations.

The paper studies the impact of inflation on income inequality in Russian regions. It was revealed that the reduction in inflation from double-digit rate to the Bank of Russia’s target did not help to mitigate inequality, but rather exacerbated it. We identified a group of products which changing price dynamics affects inequality. The price increase may lead to the decline in inequality through redistributive effect. It is shown that in Russia this effect is associated with the channel of unexpected inflation that results in real wealth transfer from more prosperous lenders to less well-off borrowers. The policy of inflation targeting, successfully implemented by the monetary authorities in recent years, has reduced the volatility of inflation and limited the operation of this channel. At the same time, quantitative estimates of the increase in inequality as a result of achieving price stability remain relatively low.

Despite the fact that China has become the second largest economy in the world, its monetary policy is yet to be understood by the outside observers. In this paper we estimate the policy preferences of China's central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian DSGE model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favours discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve had the Chinese central bank been able to commit.

After the global crisis, the monetary authorities of many countries were given the additional goal of ensuring financial stability. The complexity of the implementation of this task is associated with the lack of generally accepted definition of quantitative indicators of financial stability. Moreover, there is no consensus on the relation of the main goal for most central banks to ensure price stability and the goal of maintaining the stability of the financial system. Estimates of the correlation of the goals of the Bank of Russia to ensure price and financial stability obtained in this work using dynamic correlations calculated using multidimensional DCC-GARCH models allow us to conclude that the Bank of Russia contributed to the achievement of financial stability providing price stability in 2006-2019, and that contradictions between these goals arise only in adverse conditions. The validity of this conclusion is also confirmed by the results of a regression analysis, which also show that neither the business activity nor the interest rate policy of the Bank of Russia has statistically significant effect on the relation of its goals.

This paper investigates the relationship between changes in euro area short-term and long-term market-based inflation expectations from January 2005 to September 2018, also devoting special attention to the relevance of the oil market. The full sample is split into three subsets related to different economic and financial landscapes. To model the conditional mean and the variance–covariance structure, a VAR-CCC-GARCH specification with oil effects in the volatility proves to be a preferable approach compared to other multivariate GARCH models. In general, the conditional correlation between changes in short-term and long-term inflation compensation appears as constant and relatively low in each subset, though increasing since mid-2014. Furthermore, there are no signs of fundamental deviations in how changes in short-term inflation expectations affect changes in longer-term expectations and vice versa. There is evidence that changes in short-term inflation expectations tend to respond to the movements of oil prices over time, while changes in longer-term ones started responding to crude dynamics after mid-2008. On the whole, these findings are relevant for analysts, investors and especially for the policymakers who charged with ensuring price stability. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

This paper examines the existence and characteristics of pure-strategy Nash equilibria in oligopoly models in which firms simultaneously set prices and quantities. Existence of a pure-strategy equilibrium is proved for a class of price–quantity games. If the demand function is continuous, then the equilibrium outcome is similar to that of a price-only model. With discontinuous demand and limited spillover, there are rationing equilibria in which combined production falls short of market demand. Moreover, there might again be an equilibrium reflecting the outcome of a price game. Competition in price and quantity thus yields Bertrand outcomes under a variety of market conditions.

Since the beginning of the financial crisis in summer 2007, the European Central Bank (ECB) has redirected traditional monetary policy, based on interest rates, to an unconventional monetary policy focused on the quantitative expansion of its balance sheet. In this context, the present paper aims to assess the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy instruments with regard to inflation and economic growth. To this end, the methodology is based on the estimation of a structural vector autoregressive model for the period 2007:Q1–2018:Q4, using four variables: EONIA, the total amount of assets on the ECB's balance sheet, the Eurozone inflation rate and the Eurozone economic growth rate. The results show a slight impact of the different balance sheet policies on inflation and economic activity behaviour, especially during the last year of the financial crisis. The robustness of these results is supported by the estimation of the same model replacing EONIA rates with shadow rates. Therefore, the results support the existence of monetary transmission for the period during which the unconventional monetary policy was developed as well as the effectiveness of the monetary policy adopted by the ECB in its commitment to price stability.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold, first, to develop an effective tool to assess the performance of the overall economy by creating an assessment ratio that reflects the two top priorities of monetary policy, promoting economic growth and maintaining price stability, and second, to use the annual assessment ratios to build two subsamples, outperformance (better than the historical average) and underperformance, to examine and compare the changes in impacts of monetary and fiscal policy tools on important economic variables in different economic conditions, instead of different time periods. Design/methodology/approach The assessment ratio is defined as the gross domestic product (GDP) gap/standard deviation of inflation. Essentially, this Growth/Volatility ratio quantifies the price volatility-adjusted long-term output growth, that is, the long-term output growth given 1 per cent of the standard deviation of inflation. The growth has a positive impact on the ratio, while the effect of price volatility is negative. The ratio reflects not only the Fed’s dual goal but also the fundamental economic conditions. A higher value of the ratio indicates that the economy can better handle inflation risk in driving the long-term output growth. As the inflation level is adjusted in the numerator (GDP gap), not the denominator, no matter the Fed is engaging in the fight against inflation, or for reflation (promoting inflation) to prevent deflation and pursue price stability (Bernanke, 2002), the ratio remains consistent with the Fed’s dual goal and prefers a higher value. Findings Results of this study suggest that impacts of monetary and fiscal policy tools on key economic variables may be cyclic as the economic condition changes. The policy tools can significantly affect inflation volatility and the price volatility-adjusted long-term real output growth in the subpar economic conditions identified with lower assessment ratios. The effects become insignificant when the general economic performance exceeds the historical average. More importantly, results of this study indicate that the funds rate can effectively lower the price volatility, while the fiscal tools can promote long-term real output growth in the subpar economic conditions. Therefore, when inflation volatility spikes and the real output growth slows, the decisive and timely monetary and fiscal policy decisions become necessary to enhance policy effectiveness. Originality/value The assessments of effectiveness of monetary policy in the literature are based on some or all of four descriptive statistics: inflation, inflation volatility, output growth, and growth volatility. Each of them measures only one aspect of an economic phenomenon and cannot reflect the well-known conflicting relationship between maintaining price stability and promoting economic growth. For instance, from the policy perspective, a higher price volatility combined with a higher GDP growth rate for one period may or may not outperform another period with lower price volatility and growth rate. However, the assessment ratio created in this study considers both price volatility and economic growth simultaneously and can, therefore, be used as an effective measure of the overall economic performance.

Anniversaries are occasions for remembrance and reflections on one’s history. Many central banks take the occasion of an anniversary to publish books on their history. In this essay we discuss five recent books on the history of central banking and monetary policy. In these volumes, the Great Financial Crisis and the way which it obliged central banks to reinvent themselves occupies an important place. Although this was certainly not the first time in the history of central banking, the magnitude of the modern episode is remarkable. As comes clearly to the fore in these volumes, there is now, also in the historiography of central banking, much more attention to the (shifting) balance between price stability and financial stability. The history of central banking is more perceived as one of an institution whose predominant concern varied between “normal” times and “extraordinary” times. So, central banks will have to remain vigilant, as one should expect financial crises to return. Moreover, the new world of central banking, with a greater responsibility of central banks for financial stability, will make life more complicated for central banks. It may have also consequences for central bank independence, as the modalities of the two mandates, price and financial stability, are not the same. Another aspect which comes to the fore in these volumes is the relationship between central banking and state formation. Historically, central banks have been embedded in processes of nation-building. By extending their network of branches across the country, or by being at a center of a system of liquidity provision, ultimately tied to the national currency, they played a key role in the shaping of “national economies”.

Governments are able to implement monetary and fiscal policies to achieve economic objectives, such as increasing production, ensuring price stability, improving the balance of payments, and achieving full employment. While central banks carry out monetary policies, governments, in contrast, develop fiscal policies. Fiscal policy instruments can include public expenditures, taxes, and borrowing. In countries that have low savings levels, individuals participate in public expenditures by spending a large part of their income. Therefore, taxes are effectively used as a major policy instrument. The impact of both direct and indirect taxes on economic growth in Turkey has been analyzed by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. Test results suggest a positive and significant impact of indirect taxes on economic growth as well as a negative and significant impact of direct taxes.

Research background: The previous studies on monetary policy transparency suggest that the dependence between the degree of transparency and monetary policy effectiveness exists. In this examination, we tackle this issue for the most recent sample with the application of novel transparency measure, which is de-signed to cover forward-looking policy approach. Purpose of the article: We aim at evaluating forward-looking transparency of the European central banks and juxtapose it with their effectiveness in achieving monetary policy goals: price stability and output stabilization. The sample covers the central banks of the following countries: Sweden, the UK, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania. We also search for the patters of similarity in our sample. Methods: We apply a novel, index-based transparency measure to assess central banks’ transparency. We also estimate inflation gap and the output gap. The methods used are based on data and statistical analysis. The comparison of the behaviour of individual central banks is carried out for the variables measuring transparency and inflation and output gaps. The similarity of the performance of individual central banks is assessed with the use of measures of the distance between objects, including our own measure. Findings & Value added: Our results suggest the existence of different degrees of similarity in the sample, but some common tendencies can be found as well. For example, central banks with comparable transparency degree are found more similar. Novelty of the examination is related to our methodology: transparency and similarity measures applied and the most recent time span covered.

Purpose This paper aims to examine the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Design/methodology/approach This paper studies the effects of monetary policy and foreign shocks on output, inflation and exchange rate by using non-recursive SVAR model and quarterly data. Findings First, the empirical results reveal that monetary policy shocks, through changes in interest rate or money supply, have a significant effect on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt. Second, the world oil prices and foreign output have significant impacts on output, inflation and exchange rate in Egypt, while foreign interest rate has a significant effect on domestic output and inflation. Research limitations/implications The limitation of the study is examining one country only. Practical implications The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should adjust interest rate to stabilize inflation, output and exchange rate. By stabilizing inflation, output and exchange rate, the CBE would be able to achieve the ultimate targets of monetary policy, namely, price stability and economic growth. Social implications It is important for the CBE because it shows the significant effect of monetary policy on macroeconomic variables in Egypt. Also, it is important for people because it shows the important role for the CBE. Originality/value It is important for the CBE because it examines the effect of monetary policy and foreign shocks on macroeconomic variables.

This paper investigates the differences in macroeconomic dynamics that occurred during instabilities in the Belarusian financial market from 2004 to 2016. In this regard, I construct the Belarusian financial stress index (BFSI) as a proxy for financial stress, identify episodes of financial turmoil, assess consequences for the real economy, and examine its interaction with real economic activity and monetary policy using ARDL approach. The results show that during studied period Belarusian economy experienced two episodes of financial stress that coincided with a substantial and prolonged decline in the economic activity. Financial stress has large negative long-run effect on real economic activity. The findings also reveal that price stability is not a sufficient condition to support financial stability in the Belarusian economy.

Multiple goals tend to conflict, and this is true for multiple monetary policy goals. We present evidence that the Federal Reserve has responded to the general political support for homeownership and affordable housing in the U.S. by conducting monetary policy favorable to housing. When combined with insufficient recognition of financial innovations and flaws in the financial system, the addition of the goal of supporting housing has been “one goal too far,” creating economic distress more so than relieving it. We present evidence that it significantly contributed to the Great Inflation and the Great Recession. This work highlights the potential for government failure when a central bank makes discretionary choices with too many policy targets.

This study is an endeavour to analyse the influence of oil price shocks on the macroeconomy of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, KSA, Oman, Qatar and UAE). By employing a structural Vector auto-regression (SVAR) model for period 1980–2016, our key findings suggest that there are significant positive effects of oil price shocks on the GDP, inflation and trade balance of those countries. The findings, however, show substantial heterogeneities in the responses of the GCC members to oil shocks, which suggests the presence of idiosyncrasies in the underlying structure of their economies and differences in the degree to which these economies are dependent on oil revenues. In terms of inflation, there are also major differences in the intensity of the impact of oil shocks on the overall price, which implies that the GCC monetary policies might face a different genre of challenges to attain price stability in the face of those shocks. Our findings have profound policy implications in terms of diversifying the economies of the GCC countries and efforts to decrease the sole dependence on oil revenues.

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.

The dangers of high capital flow volatility and sudden stops have led economists to promote the use of capital controls as an addition to monetary policy in emerging market economies. This paper studies the benefits of capital controls and monetary policy in a small open economy with financial frictions, nominal rigidities, and sudden stops. Without commitment, the optimal monetary policy should sharply diverge from price stability. The policymakers will also tax capital inflows in a crisis, but such taxes may be welfare reducing. With commitment, capital controls involve a mix of current capital inflow taxes and future capital flow subsidies. The optimal policy will never involve macro-prudential capital inflow taxes or a departure from price stability, whether or not commitment is available.

We examine the use of central bank equity as an unconventional monetary policy tool. In this setting, a central bank employs digital currency to transfer digital cash to each household, thus supporting consumption directly when needed. The asset side of the central bank’s balance sheet remains unchanged, and the creation of new digital cash is offset by a decrease in central bank equity. The central bank thus incurs an immediate loss but does not take on any additional risks for its future income statements. We address several objections to this policy, paying particular attention to the claim that weakening the financial strength of the central bank endangers long-term price stability. Through a meta-analysis of 176 estimates reported previously in the literature, we find that central bank financial strength has not historically correlated with inflation performance.

Using a panel of 54 countries between 1980 and 2013, we find empirical support for the view that changes in the fiscal policy stance (year-on-year change in the cyclically adjusted primary balance) have a significant positive correlation with inflation volatility. An increase in the volatility of discretionary fiscal policies by one standard deviation raises inflation volatility by about 6%. Moreover, results using alternative inflation volatility proxies confirm that an expansionary fiscal stance increases price volatility. Another relevant outcome is that in a context of economic expansions (recessions) the harmful impact of fiscal activism on price volatility is soft (heightened), while the negative impact of fiscal activism on price stability is higher when fiscal policy is expansionary. Finally, fiscal activism fuels inflation volatility much more pronouncedly in emerging market economies vis-à-vis advanced economies.

Exploiting Nasdaq order book data and difference-in-differences methodology, we identify the distinct effects of trading pause mechanisms introduced on US stock exchanges after May 2010. We show that the mere existence of such a regulation makes market participants behave differently in anticipation of a pause. Pauses enhance price discovery during the break but have adverse effects on price stability and liquidity after the pause. We find that pauses ultimately do not “cool off” markets but cause extra volatility. This implies a regulatory trade-off between the protective role of trading pauses and their adverse effects on market quality.

The sharp, long-lasting decline in oil prices in 2014–16 tested the resilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals entering the oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies, and derive policy implications as to what factors help to mitigate the negative effects. We find that pre-existing fundamentals account for about half of the cross-country variation in the impact of the shock. Oil exporters that weathered the shock better tended to have a stronger fiscal position, higher foreign currency liquidity buffers, a more diversified export base, a history of price stability, and a more flexible exchange rate regime. Within this group of countries, the impact of the shock is not found to be related to the size of oil exports, or the share of oil in fiscal revenue or economic activity.