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To comprehend the relationship scheme between human capital accumulation and structural change observed in developing and developed countries, the paper combines Romer (1990)'s endogenous technological change with Kongsamut, Rebelo and Xie (1997, 2001)'s structural change model and shows that human capital accumulation speeds up structural change in the early stage of structural change with relatively low human capital while slows down it in its later stage with relatively high human capital.

Pasinetti's [Pasinetti, L.L., 1960. A mathematical formulation of the Ricardian system. Review of Economic Studies 27, 78–98] model formalizing Ricardian growth theory and one of the simplest models developed within the ‘new’ growth theory [Rebelo, S., 1991. Long run policy analysis and long run growth. Journal of Political Economy 99, 500–521] are shown to share the same structure. This enforces the thesis according to which many endogenous growth models have a ‘Classical’ flavour. The main difference from Pasinetti's to Rebelo's framework may be interpreted as reflecting the change in the consumption pattern of workers from early to late industrial societies.

We argue that the COVID epidemic disproportionately affected the economic well-being and health of poor people. To disentangle the forces that generated this outcome, we construct a model that is consistent with the heterogeneous impact of the COVID recession on low- and high-income people. According to our model, two-thirds of the inequality in COVID deaths reflect preexisting inequality in comorbidity rates and access to quality health care. The remaining third stems from the fact that low-income people work in occupations where the risk of infection is high. Our model also implies that the rise in income inequality generated by the COVID epidemic reflects the nature of the goods that low-income people produce. Finally, we assess the health–income trade-offs associated with fiscal transfers to the poor and mandatory containment policies.

Supplemental Material for The effect of virtual proximity and digital adoption on international tourism flows to Southern Europe by Alexandre Guedes, Samuel Faria, Sofia Gouveia, and João Rebelo in Tourism Economics.

This article presents an international comparison of the main determinants of wine prices in specialist online wine shops. Hedonic price functions were estimated for 9624 wines spread among four datasets from France, Italy, Germany and Australia. To explain price variation data was collected on wine classification, closure type, wine origin, medals or awards, vintage, alcohol content, color, and grape variety. Results from quantile regression models show that the wine vintage is a common price driver in all markets and quantiles. A quite similar effect was found for alcohol content. In terms of color, the implicit prices for red and white wines are also structurally different between countries, particularly in origin, blend, closure, awards and age. Thus, the markets should be assumed as heterogeneous, and the extrapolation of the results from one market to another may lead to erroneous management decisions.

We study the immigration policy that maximizes the welfare of the native population in an economy where the government designs an optimal redistributive welfare system and supplies public goods. We show that when the government can design different tax systems for immigrants and natives, free immigration is optimal. It is also optimal to use the tax system to encourage the immigration of high-skill workers and discourage that of low-skill workers. When immigrants and natives must be treated alike, banning low-skill immigration and allowing free immigration for high-skill workers is optimal. However, there might be no high-skill immigration when heavy taxes are levied on all high-skill workers, both natives and immigrants.

We use a model of automation to show that with the current U.S. tax system, a fall in automation costs could lead to a massive rise in income inequality. This inequality can be reduced by raising marginal income tax rates and taxing robots. But this solution involves a substantial efficiency loss for the reduced level of inequality. A Mirrleesian optimal income tax can reduce inequality at a smaller efficiency cost, but is difficult to implement. An alternative approach is to amend the current tax system to include a lump-sum rebate. In our model, with the rebate in place, it is optimal to tax robots only when there is partial automation. The ADEMU Working Paper Series is being supported by the European Commission Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, grant agreement No 649396.

This article documents how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the drinking behavior of Latin European wine consumers. Using a large online survey conducted during the first lockdown in France, Italy, Portugal, and Spain (n = 7,324 individuals), we reconstruct the purchasing and consumption patterns of the respondents. The number of people who maintained their wine consumption frequency is significantly higher than those who increased or decreased their consumption. Wine consumption frequency held up better than other types of alcohol (beer and spirits). We analyze heterogeneities among countries and individuals by employing the Marascuilo procedure and an ordered logit model. The latter identifies the impact of demographic, commercial, and psychosocial factors on wine consumption frequency. The results shed light on changes in wine consumer behavior during the first lockdown and consider possible post-lockdown trends that could be useful to industry players. (JEL Classifications: D5, L66, Q1)

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of exports, taking quality into account through vertical differentiation and using data on Portuguese Douro wines. Based on a gravity model from 2006 to 2015 and covering a range of 192 potential trade partners, estimations show that quality influences export performance. However, quality differences are not assimilated in the same way in all international markets, resulting in an export surplus of the best categories of wine to some world regions (West Europe and AngloSaxon countries) and a correspondingly export deficit to other regions (Middle East, North Africa, East Europe and Central Asia).

Purpose This paper aims to relate conceptually decent work and the economy for the common good describing the main contributions of the former to the latter. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual paper analyses the relationships between the values of the economy for the common good that have been explicitly stated and the psychological dimensions of the decent work concept. Findings Four conceptual propositions concerning the contributions of decent work to the economy for the common good are presented. Research limitations/implications Because the four conceptual propositions were not submitted to empirical research, future studies are suggested. Practical implications The pursuit of decent work is aligned with the economy for the common good, which contributes to reinforcing both proposals. Social implications Both decent work and the economy for the common good are synergistic and values-based approaches that consider the social system as a whole instead of proposing strategies to improve the competitive advantage of one over the other. This synergistic idea through cooperation contributes to overcoming the limitations of “business as usual”. Originality/value This is the first paper discussing the relationships between decent work and the economy for the common good.

We document two facts. First, during recessions consumers trade down in the quality of the goods and services they consume. Second, the production of low-quality goods is less labor intensive than that of high-quality goods. So, when households trade down, labor demand falls, increasing the severity of recessions. We find that the trading-down phenomenon accounts for a substantial fraction of the fall in U.S. employment in the recent recession. We study two business cycle models that embed quality choice and find that the presence of quality choice magnifies the response of these economies to real and monetary shocks.

This study analyses recent trends (2006-2018) in Port and Douro wine exports and estimates their macroeconomic determinants. The results of the gravity equation reveal that the purchasing power in importing countries is the most important export determinant of Port and Douro wines. Therefore, in order to increase exports, the strategic decision-makers concerned with the industry should pay special attention to the markets in wealthier countries or with a high potential for economic growth, taking into account issues such as market access, adaptation to the market to wine consumption, and regulation.

We study how people react to small probability events with large negative consequences using the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic as a natural experiment. Our analysis is based on a unique administrative data set with anonymized monthly expenditures at the individual level. We find that older consumers reduced their spending by more than younger consumers in a way that mirrors the age dependency in COVID-19 case-fatality rates. This differential expenditure reduction is much more prominent for high-contact goods than for low-contact goods and more pronounced in periods with high COVID-19 cases. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that people react to the risk of contracting COVID-19 in a way that is consistent with a canonical model of risk taking.

We analyze the effects of an epidemic in three standard macroeconomic models. We find that the neoclassical model does not rationalize the positive comovement of consumption and investment observed in recessions associated with an epidemic. Introducing monopolistic competition into the neoclassical model remedies this shortcoming even when prices are completely flexible. Finally, sticky prices lead to a larger recession but do not fundamentally alter the predictions of the monopolistic competition model.

From the Abstract: Epidemiology models used in macroeconomics generally assume that people know their current health status In this paper, we consider a more realistic environment in which people are uncertain about their health status We use our model to study the impact of testing with and without quarantining infected people We find that testing without quarantines can worsen the economic and health repercussions of an epidemic In contrast, a policy that uses tests to quarantine infected people has very large social benefits Critically, this policy ameliorates the sharp tradeoff between declines in economic activity and health outcomes that is associated with broad-based containment policies like lockdowns This amelioration is particularly dramatic when people who recover from an infection acquire only temporary immunity to the virus COVID-19 (Disease);Macroeconomics;Health--Testing;Quarantine

Price is a core component of both wine firms’ and consumers’ decision-making and so there has been a lot of analysis of the determinants of wine price. Most of the research has used the hedonic price function and assumed that the wine market is homogeneous with respect to both distribution channel and price segments. In this paper, a hedonic price function is estimated using data from a specialist retailer and a large supermarket, i.e., retailers in two different consumer market segments, niche and mass market, respectively. We conclude that the wine market is heterogeneous, and the importance of the various price determinants differs between distribution channels and, in the case of the specialist retailer, throughout the conditional statistical distribution of the price. This result may help the wine companies to place themselves in the market value chain.

We extend the canonical epidemiology model to study the interaction between economic decisions and epidemics. Our model implies that people’s decision to cut back on consumption and work reduces the severity of the epidemic, as measured by total deaths. These decisions exacerbate the size of the recession caused by the epidemic. The competitive equilibrium is not socially optimal because infected people do not fully internalize the effect of their economic decisions on the spread of the virus. In our benchmark model, the best simple containment policy increases the severity of the recession but saves roughly half a million lives in the U.S.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the macroeconomic determinants of Port wine exports, taking into account the diversity and various quality levels associated with this product.Design/methodology/approachPort wine is a fortified wine only produced in Portugal. In the period 2006-2014, an extended gravity model is applied to data on the exports of the top 20 importing countries, accounting for 94 per cent of total exports. The authors base their empirical strategy on the Hausman–Taylor estimator (1971), overcoming endogeneity and accounting for time invariant variables. They estimate the impact of several factors on the total trade of Port wine, namely: gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, tariffs, exchange rates, distance from original supplier, mutual language familiarity, landlockedness, wine consumption per capita and presence of Portuguese emigrants, all measured in volume and value terms, and for each of the four categories (Standard, High Standard, Vintage and Aged).FindingsThe findings show that the quantity and value of total Port wine exports are positively determined by overall GDP per capita, the presence of a Portuguese emigrant community (which implies that to some degree a common language and culture are shared), while exports are negatively influenced by landlockedness. In contrast to the traditional gravity model, distance from the source of supply does not appear to be a significant determinant, a fact explained by the specific and singular nature of Port wine and by the long tradition of this product in international markets. In addition, the results revealed specific determinants for specific product categories – such as GDP for aged Port and wine consumption per capita for high standard, vintage and aged Port, suggesting that Portugal needs to increase its exports of high-quality Port wine to markets that exhibit a tendency towards increased wine consumption per capita and are coming to be considered large and fast-growing economies.Originality/valueThis paper extends the literature, by respecifying the typical gravity model for aggregate goods to permit the analysis of wine exports. There has been relatively little application of this model to assess the determinants of the wine trade, and when it has been used, generally it has been in studies focusing on aggregate wine trade between countries. This paper seeks to fill this gap by focusing on the determinants of exports of a specific wine – Port wine, which is an internationally recognised product, with a clear internal product differentiation according to distinct quality levels – and in this regard provides new insights into the international patterns of trade in wine.

Plant functional traits (PFTs) underpin ecosystem processes and therefore ecosystem service provision. If PFTs are possible to detect and discriminate spectrally, then it may be possible to use remote sensing applications to map ecosystem processes or services within and across landscapes. As a first step towards this application, we explored whether functional groups of 22 dominant South African wetland species were spectrally separable based on their PFTs. We measured 23 biochemical and morphological PFTs in combination with spectra from 350 to 2349 nm using a handheld radiometer. First, we evaluated the possibility of accurately predicting morphological and biochemical PFTs from reflectance spectra using three approaches: spectrum averaging, redundancy analysis (RDA), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Second, we established whether functional groups and species were spectrally distinguishable. We found seven PFTs to be important in at least two of the three approaches: four morphological and three biochemicals. Morphological traits that were important were leaf area (PLSR: r² = 0.40, regression: r² = 0.41), specific leaf area (r² = 0.67), leaf mass (r² = 0.43, r² = 0.38), and leaf length/width ratio (r² = 0.62). Biochemical traits that play a role in the structural composition of vegetation, like lignin content (r² = 0.98, r² = 0.54), concentration (r² = 0.45) and cellulose content (r² = 0.57, r² = 0.49), were found to be important by at least two of the analyses. Three other traits were important in at least one of the analyses: total biomass (r² = 0.56), leaf C/N ratio (r² = 0.99), and cellulose concentration (r² = 0.76). Redundancy analysis suggests that there is a large percentage (52%) of the spectrum not explained by the PFTs measured in this study. However, spectral discrimination of functional groups, and even species, appears promising, mostly in the ultraviolet A part of the spectrum. This has interesting applications for mapping PFTs using remote sensing techniques, and therefore for estimating related ecosystem processes and services. ispartof: REMOTE SENSING OF ENVIRONMENT vol:210 pages:25-34 status: published

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate international trade determinants, paying special attention to variables related to climate change and non-tariff measures (NTMs), as they shape more and more world trade flows, with particular incidence on globalised goods, such as wine.Design/methodology/approachBased on panel data of Port wine exports to 60 countries, between 2006 and 2018, a gravity model has been estimated through Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood. Explanatory variables include NTMs, mean temperature, temperature anomaly, gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, ad valorem equivalent tariffs and home bias.FindingsThe findings show that exports are inversely related to both mean temperature and temperature anomaly in importing countries. Regarding NTMs, it is found that only part of them are trade deterrent. Additionally, purchasing power in importing countries is one of the main determinants of Port wine exports.Research limitations/implicationsThe results show that, besides traditional economic variables, policymakers and wineries should include in their exports' decisions the impact of variables related to climate change and NTMs.Originality/valueThe novelty of this paper is to incorporate the impact of climatic variability of importing countries as a determinant of international trade of wine. Most former studies inspired of the gravity model consider explanatory variables such as GDP and exchange rate, and more recent ones started to consider NTMs too, however, this study may be the first paper to include the impact of climate change (quantified by mean temperature and temperature anomaly in importing countries) on exports.

This paper investigates the presence of spatial spillovers in firms’ productive (in)efficiency. For this purpose, a spatial stochastic frontier model is specified and estimated, accounting for spatial dependence and persistent and transient (in)efficiency. This approach is applied to a panel dataset from 2014 to 2019 of Portuguese wineries. Apart from the traditional input and output quantities used in the estimation of a production function, the novelty of this study is the inclusion of information on the firms’ exact location, which allows incorporating the neighboring dependence in the productive efficiency analysis. Empirical findings show that despite the Portuguese wineries’ technological positive dependence on spatial closeness for both inputs and outputs, the geographic closeness is not strong enough to provide overall productive efficiency gains.

We propose a model consistent with two observations. First, the tax rates adopted by different countries are generally uncorrelated with their growth performance. Second, countries that drastically reduce private incentives to invest severely hurt their growth performance. In our model, the effects of taxation on growth are highly nonlinear. Low tax rates have a very small impact on long-run growth rates. But as tax rates rise, their negative impact on growth rises dramatically. The median voter chooses tax rates that have a small impact on growth prospects, making the relation between tax rates and economic growth difficult to measure empirically.

California telecommunications company Wireworld is considering an acquisition of Nusantara Communications, a subsidiary of Indonesian conglomerate Bakrie & Brothers. Nusantara had invested $50 million in developing the advanced rural telephone system, which had the potential to provide much-needed telecommunications services to the mostly rural Indonesian population. If if were exported, the worldwide market for this product in the next five years was projected to be in the billions. Should Wireworld acquire this small company halfway around the world? Was it prepared to enter the Indonesian marketplace and beyond?Students will examine a variety of data, including financial projections, in order to decide whether acquiring Nusantara will add value to Wireworld.