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This paper aims to recall Keynes’s ideas on money. In this sense, the paper dedicates itself only to recall Keynes’s thoughts on this elements money, putting aside several debates on the topic Keynes undertook with a number of other authors. The paper’s contributions rests in offering, in a rather short length a debate previously done only in book length documents; moreover, this synthesis will be done in Portuguese, something not yet undertaken. Although this contribution might be seen as a very humble one, we argument it is not the case, as to apprehend the course of Keynes’s ideas, it will be analyzed his main economic works, namely the 1923 Tract on Monetary Reform, 1930 Treatise on Money, and 1936 The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, which is not a small effort per se. The background to the discussion will be Keynes' departure from neoclassical theory throughout these works. Furthermore, the article briefly debates how Keynes has apprehended the institutional remarks of the Monetary Authority.

The aim of this study is to analyze how economic uncertainty and monetary policy affect investor sentiment in Brazil. Investor sentiment is an important element in the finance, economics, and accounting literature and its impact on financial markets is widely documented. However, understanding the variables that affect it remains an important challenge, and this research seeks to explore this gap within the Brazilian context. The study provides initial evidence regarding the impact of economic uncertainty and monetary policy on investor sentiment in Brazil. The findings documented here provide theoretical, managerial, and social contributions, with a possible impact on the areas of finance, economics, and accounting. Monthly data were used relating to four mechanisms of transmission of economic uncertainty and of monetary policy (interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, economic uncertainty index) and to the consumer confidence index as a proxy for investor sentiment (covering the period from January of 2006 to March of 2020). An autoregressive distributed lag model was estimated to capture short- and long-term relationships between the variables. The results indicate that investor sentiment is affected by economic uncertainty and by the main mechanisms of transmission of monetary policy to different extents and in the different time horizons. The evidence suggests that investors, policymakers, and monetary authorities should consider sentiment as a signal, whether for altering investment portfolios or for anticipating economic trends. It also provides support for focusing on economic and monetary policy in the National Financial Education Strategy (Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira - ENEF) recently adopted in Brazil RESUMO O objetivo da pesquisa é analisar como a incerteza econômica e a política monetária afetam o sentimento do investidor no Brasil. O sentimento do investidor é um elemento importante na literatura financeira, econômica e contábil, e seu impacto nos mercados financeiros é expressivamente documentado. Entretanto, compreender as variáveis que o afetam ainda é um importante desafio, e essa pesquisa procura explorar essa lacuna no contexto brasileiro. A pesquisa fornece evidências iniciais sobre o impacto da incerteza econômica e da política monetária sobre o sentimento do investidor no Brasil. Os achados aqui documentados fornecem contribuições teóricas, gerenciais e sociais, com possível impacto nas áreas de finanças, economia e contabilidade. Foram utilizados dados mensais de quatro mecanismos de transmissão da incerteza econômica e da política monetária (taxa de juros, taxa de câmbio, taxa de inflação e índice de incerteza econômica) e do índice de confiança do consumidor como proxy para sentimento do investidor (período de janeiro de 2006 a março de 2020), e estimado um modelo autorregressivo de defasagens distribuídas, capturando relações de curto e longo prazo entre as variáveis. Os resultados indicam que o sentimento do investidor é afetado pela incerteza econômica e pelos principais mecanismos de transmissão da política monetária em diferentes magnitudes e nos diferentes horizontes temporais. Essas evidências sugerem que investidores, formuladores de políticas e autoridades monetárias devem considerar o sentimento um sinal, seja para alteração em portfólios de investimentos, seja para antecipação dos rumos da economia. Ainda fornece subsídios para um maior enfoque da política econômica e monetária na Estratégia Nacional de Educação Financeira (ENEF) recentemente adotada no Brasil.

The aim of this article is to analyse the effects on Spain as a neutral country of the monetary measures adopted by the largest allied nations during the First World War. We will focus on the intervention of exchange rates and on the measures aimed at limiting gold outflows from belligerent countries. The distortions derived from these policies gave rise, in some cases, to additional profits for Spanish exporters and intermediaries, while in others prevented the effective transformation of some benefits from war into valuable assets and pushed them to be dragged down by the economic disturbances of the post-war period.

RESUMO Este breve artigo discute o comportamento do spread de risco soberano no Brasil desde a adoção de um regime de taxa de câmbio flutuante no início de 99. Os dados apresentados parecem apoiar a hipótese de efeitos perversos da política monetária doméstica sobre o risco-país. Por outro lado, os temores de uma inadimplência futura da dívida - provocada por pesquisas de eleição presidencial voláteis - parecem não explicar uma parte significativa do spread de risco, até muito recentemente. O autor está totalmente ciente da existência de uma literatura rica e crescente sobre o risco-país. Este artigo não é uma tentativa de adicionar novas peças de teoria ou evidência analítica rigorosa a essa literatura; seu único objetivo é dar uma pequena contribuição ao debate, apontando alguns fatores geralmente negligenciados que podem explicar o spread de risco soberano do Brasil. ABSTRACT This short paper discusses the behavior of Brazil’s sovereign risk spread, since the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime in the beginning of 1999. The data presented seem to support the hypothesis of perverse effects of domestic monetary policy on country-risk. On the other hand, fears of a future debt default - sparked by volatile presidential election polls - do not seem to explain a significant part of the risk spread, until very recently. The author is fully aware of the existence of a rich and fast-growing literature on country-risk. This paper is not an attempt to add new pieces of theory or rigorous analytical evidence to that literature; its sole aim is to make a small contribution to the debate, by pointing at some usually neglected factors that may explain Brazil’s sovereign risk spread.

espanolEste articulo analiza el impacto de la politica monetaria en la tasa de desempleo no aceleradora de la inflacion (NAIRU), o equilibrio de los mercados de trabajo para los paises que pertenecen a la Alianza del Pacifico (Chile, Colombia, Peru y Mexico). Los movimientos NAIRU se determinan para cada pais. Ademas, se estiman modelos de vectores autorregresivos para evaluar el impacto de la politica monetaria en el mercado laboral de cada uno de los paises de la Alianza del Pacifico. Los resultados muestran que la politica monetaria impacta la NAIRU de Chile, Colombia y Peru, mientras que los shocks de tal politica no tienen repercusion significativa en la NAIRU de Mexico. EnglishThis paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy on the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment(NAIRU), or equilibrium of the labor markets, for the countries that belongs to the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico). The NAIRU movements are estimated for each country. Furthermore, Auto-Regressive Vector Models are used to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on the labor market of each of the PA countries. Results show that monetary policy impacts the NAIRU of Chile, Colombia and Peru. However, monetary policy shocks have not significant impact on the NAIRU of Mexico.

La revolución contra la teoría cuantitativa la hizo Keynes en la década de los treinta dentro de la economía oficial. La contrarrevolución keynesiana la realizó Milton Friedman en la década de los setenta, también dentro del sistema teórico dominante y se conoció con los nombres de Escuela de Chicago, monetarismo o neoliberalismo, términos que nunca le gustaron al propio Friedman. En el artículo se analizan algunos aspectos fundamentales de este gran cisma intelectual en la economía, en torno a la economía monetarista, la crítica a la curva de Phillips, la política monetaria y su explicación sobre los determinantes de las crisis económicas, especialmente el Gran Crac de 1929, para contrastarlo con la crisis de 2008. The revolution against quantitative theory was made by Keynes in the 1930s within the official economy. The Keynesian counterrevolution was carried out by Milton Friedman in the seventies, also within the dominant theoretical system and was known as the Chicago School or Monetarism or Neoliberalism, terms that Friedman himself never liked. In the article we analyze some fundamental aspects of this great intellectual schism in the economy, around the monetarist economy, the criticism of the Phillips curve, the monetary policy and its explanation on the determinants of the economic crises, especially the Great Crash of the 29 to contrast it with the 2008 crises.

Monetary policy in open economies: the role of the exchange rate in Mexico This paper analyzes the role of the exchange rate in Mexico during the inflation targeting regime. The framework is based on the New Keynesian Macroeconomics, and the empirical evidence in the estimation of a Vector Error Correction model and the statistical analysis of the inflation targeting in Mexico and Latin America. The results describe to the Mexico’s monetary policy as a hybrid system, where the nominal interest rate (policy instrument) and appreciations of the real exchange rate (intermediate instrument), have as their primary objective, the inflation stabilization within a numerical goal.

En este trabajo se desarrolla un modelo sencillo que muestra que, en una economía pequeña y abierta, en la cual el producto depende tanto de la tasa de interés como del tipo de cambio real, se observa que: a) el producto puede ser volátil en respuesta a choques exógenos, tanto externos como domésticos; b) la sensibilidad relativa que, en el corto plazo, tenga el producto a la tasa de interés y al tipo de cambio real será determinante para el nivel de producto de equilibrio. A su vez, se muestra que, dependiendo de dicha sensibilidad relativa, un banco central que tenga un objetivo de inflación y sea creíble puede mejorar el desempeño de la economía en el largo plazo.

This paper focuses on how the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policies influenced non-financial firms. The paper’s two main contributions are, first, to shed light on non-financial firms’ decisions on leverage, and how the ECB’s conventional and unconventional policies may have affected them. Second, the paper also examines how these policies influenced non-financial firms decisions on capital allocation – primarily capital spending and shareholder distribution (for example, dividends and shares repurchases). Towards this end, we use an exhaustive and unique dataset comprised of income statements and balance sheets of leading non-financial firms that operate in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The main results suggest that ECB’s monetary policies have encouraged firms to raise their debt burden especially after the global recession of 2008. Finally, the ECB’s policies, mainly after 2011, seem to have also stimulated non-financial firms to allocate more resources towards not only capital spending but also shareholder distribution.

Resumo O presente artigo tem como objetivo discutir a conexão existente entre a política monetária e a dívida pública no Brasil, destacando as implicações daí decorrentes. Para isso, parte de uma retomada histórica do surgimento do mercado de títulos da dívida pública e das instituições responsáveis por seu gerenciamento. Posteriormente, são discutidos os dados relativos às variáveis ligadas à política monetária e à dívida pública entre 1999 a 2016. A partir da referida análise, observou-se a existência de uma conexão problemática entre duas políticas - monetária e fiscal - dada pela taxa Selic que é, ao mesmo tempo, instrumento de controle da inflação e taxa que remunera parcela expressiva da dívida pública. O trabalho conclui que esta vinculação reduz a eficácia das referidas políticas, requerendo ações como desvinculação da política monetária e da dívida pública, elevação do prazo e duração da dívida, mudança da sua composição e, particularmente, redução da taxa Selic. Abstract This paper aims to discuss the connection between monetary policy and public debt in Brazil, highlighting the consequences. To do so, it begins with a historical resumption of the emergence of the market for public debt and the institutions responsible for its management. This is followed by an analysis of the data on the variables related to monetary policy and public debt between 1999 and 2016. From this analysis, we observed the existence of a problematic connection between two policies - monetary and fiscal - given by the Selic rate, which is both an instrument to control the inflation and the rate that remunerates a significant portion of public debt. The paper concludes that this link reduces the effectiveness of these policies, requiring actions such as the untying of monetary policy and public debt, the increase in the term and duration of debt, the change in composition and, particularly, a reduction of the Selic rate.

La misión original del FMI era organizar un Sistema Monetario y Financiero Internacional estable, que favoreciera el comercio internacional y corrigiera los desequilibrios con el menor costo posible. Con tal fin, se confirió al FMI poderes de supervisión sobre las políticas monetarias y cambiarias de los países miembros, y la potestad de incidir sobre ellas en ocasión de los programas de asistencia acordados con los países en dificultades. En la práctica, las políticas propugnadas por el FMI han agravado tanto la inestabilidad económica y financiera internacional como el costo económico y social de las crisis resultantes, lo cual ha vulnerado los derechos humanos económicos, sociales y culturales en los países afectados. Sus políticas macroeconómicas procíclicas han sido costosas desde el punto de vista social e inefectivas desde el económico, en tanto sus reformas estructurales han vulnerado la soberanía de los países. Los resultados de los programas, sistemáticamente alejados de los proyectados, evidencian deficiencias analíticas que han sido parcialmente reconocidas en la teoría, sin que el contenido de los programas del FMI variara substancialmente. Una reforma del FMI, que refleje la nueva relación de fuerzas en la economía mundial, es indispensable para que esa institución retome su misión original y contribuya a la realización de los derechos humanos reconocidos por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, de la cual forma parte., The IMF’s original mission was to organize a stable International Monetary and Financial System that would favor international trade and correct imbalances at the lowest possible cost. To this end, the IMF was given supervisory powers over monetary and exchange rate policies of member countries, and the power to influence them in the context of assistance programs agreed with countries in difficulty. In practice, the policies advocated by the IMF have aggravated both international economic and financial instability as well as the economic and social cost of the resulting crises, violating economic, social and cultural human rights in the affected countries. Its pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies have been socially costly and economically ineffective, while its structural reforms have undermined the sovereignty of countries. The results of the programs, systematically far from those projected, show analytical deficiencies that have been partially recognized in theory, without the content of IMF programs changing substantially. A reform of the IMF, reflecting the new balance of power in the world economy, is essential if this institution is to resume its original mission and contribute to the realization of the human rights recognized by the United Nations, of which it is part., Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales

CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior Este trabalho investiga o impacto de diferentes regras de taxa de juros na condução da política monetária brasileira, por intermédio de modelos macroeconômicos DSGE novos-keynesianos. As regras de Taylor utilizadas incluem aquelas com características “dovish” ou “hawkish”, além daquelas típicas de um duplo mandato. A estratégia empírica utilizada está baseada no modelo SAMBA de política monetária do Banco Central do Brasil, e será dividida em duas etapas. Em um primeiro momento, serão feitos exercícios de calibração no modelo macroeconômico composto de uma Curva de Phillips, uma Curva IS e alternações das diversas regras de taxa de juros. Os exercícios de calibração mostram que diferentes funções de reação da autoridade monetária brasileira geram respostas distintas, com destaque para a significância do processo de suavização da taxa de juros e a aparente maior rigidez no controle inflacionário em torno de regras monetárias com características mais “hawkish”. A segunda etapa compreende uma estimação Bayesiana do modelo novo-keynesiano proposto, para dados trimestrais entre 1999 e 2020, com o mesmo arcabouço das três equações macroeconômicas e com as mesmas regras de taxa de juros. Os resultados das estimações do modelo DSGE mostram respostas aos choques monetários menos pronunciadas do que as respostas relatadas originalmente pelas estimações do Banco Central, o que pode ser atribuído à expansão da base de dados, com um período com maior controle inflacionário, embora com certa estagnação da atividade econômica do país. Além disso, a inexistência de um parâmetro que capture o nível de atividade econômica e outro que suavize a taxa de juros parece modificar o comportamento comum, conforme literatura macroeconômica, de uma regra de taxa de juros. Outros resultados interessantes são que: i) uma autoridade monetária preocupada tanto com a inflação quanto com o produto, mais “hawkish” ou duplo mandato, parece estar no ponto de equilíbrio mais eficiente entre essas variáveis e ii) mesmo diante de um cenário econômico complicado nos últimos anos, a taxa básica de juros da economia caiu e a inflação se manteve dentro do intervalo de tolerância das metas para a inflação, o que sugere que os choques do lado fiscal foram mais significativos do que os choques do lado monetário. This paper investigates the impact of different interest rate rules on the conduct of Brazilian monetary policy through new-keynesian DSGE macroeconomic models. Taylor’s rules used include those with “dovish” or “hawkish” characteristics, in addition to those typical of a dual mandate. The empirical strategy used is based on the model of monetary policy of the Central Bank of Brazil, SAMBA, and will be divided into two stages. In a first step, calibration exercises will be done in the macroeconomic model composed of a Phillips Curve, an IS Curve and alternations of the various interest rate rules. The calibration exercises show that different reaction functions of the Brazilian monetary authority generate distinct responses, with emphasis on the significance of the process of interest rate smoothing and the apparent greater rigidity in inflationary control around monetary rules with more “hawkish” characteristics. The second stage comprises a Bayesian estimation of the proposed New-Keynesian model, for quarterly data from 1999 to 2020, with the same framework of the three macroeconomic equations and the same interest rate rules. The results of the DSGE model estimation show less pronounced responses to monetary shocks than those originally reported by the Central Bank estimates, which can be attributed to the expansion of the database, covering a period with greater inflationary control, although with some stagnation in the country’s economic activity. Moreover, the inexistence of one parameter that captures the level of economic activity and another that smoothes the interest rate seems to modify the common behavior, according to macroeconomic literature, of an interest rate rule. Other interesting results are that: i) a monetary authority concerned with both inflation and product, more “hawkish” or dual mandate, seems to be at the most efficient equilibrium point between these variables and ii) even in the face of a complicated economic scenario in recent years, the economy’s basic interest rate has fallen and inflation has remained within the tolerance range of the inflation targets, suggesting that the shocks on the fiscal side were more significant than the shocks on the monetary side. Dissertação (Mestrado)

RESUMEN Este artículo analiza el efecto de distintos choques monetarios y externos sobre el crecimiento cíclico del departamento del Valle del Cauca y se compara con el efecto que tienen estos sobre el ciclo nacional en el periodo comprendido entre 2013 y 2016, en el cual caen los precios de las materias primas. La estrategia empírica empleada permite examinar la efectividad de la política monetaria y cambiaria en la región. Las estimaciones muestran que el mejor desempeño económico del Valle, en comparación con el promedio nacional, se debe, principalmente, a la mayor sensibilidad a la tasa de cambio real y a la menor dependencia del precio del petróleo. JEL: E32, E37, C43, C53. ABSTRACT The article analyses the effect of different monetary and external sector shocks on the cyclical growth of the department of Valle del Cauca, and compares it with the effect that these same shocks have on the national cycle during the period 2013-2016. The empirical strategy used allows us to examine the effectiveness of monetary and exchange policy at a regional level. Estimates show that the best economic performance of the Valle, compared to the national average, is mainly due to the greater sensitivity to the real exchange rate and the lower dependence on the price of oil. JEL: E32, E37, C43, C53. RESUMO Este artigo analisa o efeito de diferentes choques monetários e externos sobre o crescimento cíclico do departamento de Valle del Cauca e compara com o efeito que estes exercem sobre o ciclo nacional no período de 2013 a 2016, em que os preços das matérias-primas caem. A estratégia empírica utilizada permite examinar a eficácia da política monetária e cambial na região. As estimativas mostram que o melhor desempenho econômico do departamento de Valle, em relação à média nacional, se deve principalmente à maior sensibilidade à taxa de câmbio real e à menor dependência do preço do petróleo. JEL: E32, E37, C43, C53.

Includes supplementary materials for the online appendix Leaning-against the-wind (LAW) policies, whereby interest rates are raised in the face of a growing asset price bubble, are often advocated as a means of dampening such bubbles. On the other hand, there are theoretical arguments suggesting that such a policy could have the opposite effect (Gal í, 2014). We study the effect of monetary policy on asset price bubbles in a laboratory experiment with an overlapping generations structure. Participants in the role of the young generation allocate their endowment between two investments: a risky asset and a one-period riskless bond. The risky asset pays no dividend and thus the possibility of selling it to the next generation is its only source of value. Consequently, its price is a pure bubble. We study how variations in the interest rate affect the evolution of the bubble in an experiment with three treatments. One treatment has a fixed low interest rate, another a fixed high interest rate, and the third has a LAW interest rate policy in place. We observe that the bubble increases (decreases) when interest rates are lower (higher) in the period of a policy change. However, the opposite effect is observed in the following period, when higher (lower) interest rates are associated with greater (smaller) bubble growth. Direct measurement of expectations reveals that traders expect prices to follow previous trends and tend to correct for prior errors in their predictions. Galí acknowledges the European Research Council for Financial support under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013, ERC Grant agreement number 339656), as well as generic financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, through the Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R&D (CEX2019-000915-S), and from the Generalitat de Catalunya, through CERCA and SGR Programme (2017-SGR-1393).

RESUMO Este artigo analisa os principais argumentos relativos à teoria da credibilidade da autoridade monetária da literatura corrente. Nesse sentido, a origem do debate intitulado regras versus discrição é examinada e os avanços na literatura da proposta de independência do banco central. Os resultados indicam que o problema do viés inflacionário para a condução da política monetária é resultado de um conjunto de hipóteses ad hoc usadas pela literatura. Assim, os desenvolvimentos na literatura sobre a credibilidade do viés inflacionário representam um caso particular para a teoria monetária. ABSTRACT This paper analyzes the main arguments concerning credibility theory for monetary authority from the mainstream literature. In this sense, the origin of the debate entitled rules versus discretion is examined and the advances in literature from the central bank independence proposal. The findings denote that the problem of the inflationary bias for conduction of monetary policy is a result of a set of ad hoc hypotheses used by the literature. Thus, the developments in the literature concerning the credibility from inflationary bias represent a particular case for monetary theory.

Este trabajo analiza la dinámica del desempleo y su interacción con las principales variables macroeconómicas que se toman en cuenta para las decisiones de política monetaria en Perú. Por lo tanto, se realizan pruebas de raíz unitaria (con y sin quiebre estructural) para evaluar la existencia o no de un equilibrio de largo plazo de la tasa de desempleo de Perú. Además, se realiza un análisis espectral mediante el método de wavelet coherence con el fin de analizar las relaciones entre las variables en el corto, mediano y largo plazo. Los resultados de las estimaciones no corroboran empíricamente la hipótesis de la tasa natural para el desempleo en el Perú, pero no es concluyente en probar la presencia de histéresis. Finalmente, la dinámica del desempleo asociada a cambios en la inflación, brecha producto y la tasa decrecimiento del PBI no son lineales y están condicionadas a cambios estructurales o múltiples equilibrios debido a sus características de raíz unitaria, lo cual puede sesgar la efectividad de la política monetaria. This paper analyzes the dynamics of unemployment and its interaction with the main macroeconomic variables that are considered for monetary policy decisions in Peru. Therefore, unit root tests (with and without structural breakage) are carried out to assess the existence or not of a long-term equilibrium of Peru's unemployment rate. Also, a spectral analysis is performed using the wavelet method coherence to analyze the relationships between the variables in the short, medium and long term. The results of the estimates do no corroborate empirically the hypothesis of the natural rate for unemployment in Peru, but it is not conclusive to prove the presence of hysteresis. Finally, the dynamics of unemployment associated with changes in inflation, the output gap and the GDP decrease rate are not linear and are conditioned by structural changes or multiple balances due to their unitary root characteristics, which may bias the effectiveness of the monetary policy.

Resumen: El objetivo de este trabajo es examinar el canal del crédito bancario en Colombia para el periodo 1995-2015, teniendo en cuenta las repercusiones que tuvo la crisis financiera mundial del 2007 sobre este. Para ello, se divide la muestra en dos periodos (pre y poscrisis) y se utilizan dos enfoques con el fin de obtener resultados robustos. Utilizando modelos de datos panel, se encuentra que un incremento en la tasa de interés de referencia de 1% disminuye el crédito bancario en un 2 a 3% (independientemente del enfoque usado), lo cual evidencia la existencia del canal para el periodo precrisis; asimismo, los resultados encontrados muestran que dicho canal tiene efectos heterogéneos. Por otro lado, para el periodo poscrisis, los resultados pierden significancia estadística, lo que sugiere que la crisis financiera mundial sí tuvo un efecto sobre dicho canal. Lo anterior implica que el banco central de Colombia, al momento de tomar decisiones y de formular su política monetaria, debería tener en cuenta que el efecto final sobre la economía no es el mismo al efecto observado antes del 2007. Clasificación JEL: E44, E52, E58, G01, G21. Abstract: The objective of this article is to examine the bank lending channel in Colombia for the period 1995-2015, taking into account the repercussions that the 2007 global financial crisis had on it. To this end, the sample is divided into two periods (pre- and post-crisis) and two approaches are used in order to obtain robust results. By using panel data models, it is found that an increase in the reference interest rate of 1% decreases bank lending by 2-3% (regardless of the approach used), which shows the existence of the bank lending channel for the pre-crisis period; likewise, the results found show that this channel has heterogeneous effects on the economy. However, for the post-crisis period, the results lose statistical significance, thus suggesting that the global financial crisis did influence such a channel. These results imply that the Colombian central bank, at the time of making decisions and formulating its monetary policy, should take into account that the final effect on the economy is not the same as that observed before 2007. Clasificación JEL: E44, E52, E58, G01, G21. Résumé: L’objectif de cet article est d’examiner le canal du crédit bancaire en Colombie pour la période 1995-2015, compte tenu des répercussions que l’ADH de crise mondiale financière 2007 sur elle. A cet effet, l’échantillon est divisé en deux périodes (avant et après la crise) et deux sont utilisés afin d’obtenir des résultats approches robustes. En utilisant des modèles de données de panel, on constate une augmentation qui dans le taux d’intérêt de référence de 1% entraîne une diminution des prêts bancaires de 2,3% (quelle que soit l’approche utilisée), ce qui montre l’existence du canal de prêt bancaire pour la pré-crise période; De même, les résultats trouvés esta montrent que le canal a des effets hétérogènes sur l’économie. Toutefois, pour la période post-crise, les résultats perdent signification statistique, ce qui suggère que la crise financière mondiale n’a pas influencé un tel canal. Ces résultats impliquent que la banque centrale colombienne, au moment de prendre des décisions et sa politique monétaire Formuler, prendre en compte que si le Effet final sur l’économie ne sont pas les mêmes que précédemment ont fait remarquer que 2007. Clasificación JEL: E44, E52, E58, G01, G21.

Purpose – Though an accumulating body of study has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. Against this backdrop, this study aims to analyse the differential impact of monetary policy on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and their components along with the general price level in India. Design/methodology/approach – The study develops a structural macroeconometric model, which is primarily aggregate and eclectic in nature. The generalized method of movements is used for estimation of behavioural equations, while a Gauss–Seidel algorithm is used for model simulation purposes. Findings – The paper presents the results of two policy simulations from the estimated model that highlight the differential impact of monetary policy. The first one, hike in the policy rate by 5% and second is a reduction in bank credit to the commercial sector by 10%. The results from the first policy simulation experiment reveal that interest hike has a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is borne by investment demand and imports followed by private consumption. While as among the components of aggregate supply maximum impact is born by infrastructure output followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. The results from the second policy simulation experiment revealed that pure monetary shocks have a significant negative impact on aggregate demand, aggregate supply and general price level. However, the maximum impact is born by private consumption and imports followed by investment demand. While as among components of aggregate supply maximum impact is borne by infrastructure followed by the manufacturing and services sector with the agriculture sector found to be insensitive in nature. From both policy simulation experiments, the study highlighted the relative importance of the income absorption approach as opposed to the expenditure switching effect. Practical implications – The results obtained in this study provides a strong framework for design the monetary policy framework. The results are in a view of the differential impact of monetary policy action among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. This reflection of differential impact has immense significance for the macroeconomic stabilization as the central bank will have to weigh the varying repercussion of its actions on different sectors. For instance, the decline in output after monetary tightening might be conceived as mild from an overall perspective, but it can be appreciable for some sectors. This differential influence will have an implication for policy design to care for distributional aspects, which otherwise could be neglected/disregarded. Similarly, the output decline may be as a result of either consumption postponement or a temporary slowdown in investment. However, the one emanating due to investment decline will have lasting growth implications compared to a decline in consumer demand. In addition, the relative strength of expenditure changing or expenditure switching policies of trade balance stabilization may have varying consequences in the aftermath of monetary policy shock. Accordingly information on the relative sensitiveness/insensitiveness of different sectors/ components of aggregate demand towards monetary policy actions furnish valuable insights to monetary authorities in framing appropriate policy. Originality/value – The work carried out in the present paper is motivated by the fact that although a number of studies have examined the monetary transmission mechanism in India, a very few studies examining the differential impact of monetary policy action. However, to the best of the knowledge, there is no such studies, which have examined the differential impact of monetary policy in the structural macro-econometric framework. The paper will enrich the existing literature by providing a detailed account of the differential impact of monetary policy among the components of both aggregate demand and aggregate supply in response to an interest rate hike, as well as a decrease in the money supply. Proposito – Aunque un cuerpo de estudios acumulado ha analizado la transmision de la politica monetaria en India, hay pocos estudios que examinen el impacto diferencial de la accion de la politica monetaria. En este contexto, el presente estudio tiene como objetivo analizar el impacto diferencial de la politica monetaria sobre la demanda agregada, la oferta agregada y sus componentes junto con el nivel general de precios en India. Diseno/metodologia/enfoque – El estudio desarrolla un modelo macroeconometrico estructural, que es principalmente de naturaleza agregada y eclectica. El metodo generalizado de movimientos se utiliza para la estimacion de ecuaciones de comportamiento, mientras que un algoritmo de Gauss-Seidel se utiliza para fines de simulacion de modelos. Hallazgos – El documento presenta los resultados de dos simulaciones de politicas del modelo estimado que destacan el impacto diferencial de la politica monetaria. El primero, aumento de la tasa de politicas en un 5% y el segundo es una reduccion del credito bancario al sector comercial en un 10%. Los resultados del primer experimento de simulacion de politicas revelan que el aumento de los intereses tiene un impacto negativo significativo en la demanda agregada, la oferta agregada y el nivel general de precios. Sin embargo, el impacto maximo lo soportan la demanda de inversion y las importaciones, seguidas del consumo privado. Mientras que, entre los componentes de la oferta agregada, el impacto maximo nace de la produccion de infraestructura, seguida por el sector manufacturero y de servicios, encontrandose el sector agricola de naturaleza insensible. Los resultados del segundo experimento de simulacion de politicas revelaron que los shocks monetarios puros tienen un impacto negativo significativo en la demanda agregada, la oferta agregada y el nivel general de precios. Sin embargo, el impacto maximo nace del consumo privado y las importaciones seguidas de la demanda de inversion. Mientras que, entre los componentes de la oferta agregada, el impacto maximo recae sobre la infraestructura, seguida por el sector manufacturero y de servicios, y el sector agricola se considera insensible por naturaleza. A partir de ambos experimentos de simulacion de politicas, el estudio destaco la importancia relativa del enfoque de absorcion de ingresos frente al efecto de cambio de gasto. Implicaciones practicas – Los resultados obtenidos en este estudio proporcionan un marco solido para disenar el marco de politica monetaria. Los resultados contemplan el impacto diferencial de la accion de la politica monetaria entre los componentes, tanto de la demanda agregada como de la oferta agregada. Este reflejo de impacto diferencial tiene una enorme trascendencia para la estabilizacion macroeconomica, ya que el banco central tendra que sopesar la repercusion variable de sus acciones en diferentes sectores. Por ejemplo, la caida de la produccion despues del endurecimiento monetario podria concebirse como leve desde una perspectiva general, pero puede ser apreciable para algunos sectores. Esta influencia diferencial tendra una implicacion para que el diseno de politicas se ocupe de los aspectos distributivos, que de otro modo podrian pasarse por alto o ignorarse. De manera similar, la disminucion de la produccion puede deberse a un aplazamiento del consumo o una desaceleracion temporal de la inversion. Sin embargo, el que emane de la disminucion de la inversion tendra implicaciones de crecimiento duraderas en comparacion con una disminucion de la demanda de los consumidores. Ademas, la fuerza relativa del cambio de gasto o de las politicas de cambio de gasto de estabilizacion de la balanza comercial puede tener diversas consecuencias por el choque de politica monetaria. En consecuencia, la informacion sobre la sensibilidad/insensibilidad relativa de los diferentes sectores/componentes de la demanda agregada hacia las acciones de politica monetaria proporciona datos valiosos a las autoridades para formular una politica adecuada. Originalidad/valor – El trabajo realizado esta motivado por el hecho de que, si bien varios estudios han examinado el mecanismo de transmision monetaria en India, muy pocos estudios examinan el impacto diferencial de la accion de la politica monetaria. Sin embargo, hasta donde sabemos, no existen tales estudios que hayan examinado el impacto diferencial de la politica monetaria en el marco macroeconometrico estructural. El documento enriquecera la literatura existente al proporcionar una descripcion detallada del impacto diferencial de la politica monetaria entre los componentes, tanto de la demanda agregada como de la oferta agregada en respuesta a una subida de tipos de interes, asi como a una disminucion de la oferta monetaria.

O trabalho apresenta como objetivo identificar os determinantes das operaçõesde crédito per capita municipal na região Sudeste do Brasil. O método de análiseutilizado é o de painel dinâmico de Arellano e Bond. O principal resultado obtidoaponta que os choques monetários possuem efeitos diferenciados sobre os municípios.Nas regiões com muito crédito, a política é menos efetiva e possui maior impacto doque nas regiões com menor crédito. Isso indica que devido à ausência de bancos regionais,dada uma elevação na taxa de juros, os bancos não apenas retiram a oferta,como deslocam parte dessa oferta das regiões com pouco crédito para as regiões commuito crédito, o que acentua o efeito na região periférica e ameniza o efeito sobre aregião desenvolvida. Por outro lado, uma política monetária expansionista será maisefetiva nos municípios com menos crédito, pois essas regiões tendem a possuir umamaior demanda por crédito não atendida e maior oportunidade de investimentos. Assim,dado o atual cenário do mercado bancário brasileiro, conclui-se que o uso dapolítica monetária pode acentuar ou diminuir as condições heterogênicas no acessoao crédito, sendo que políticas monetárias restritivas não apenas diminuem a atividadeeconômica e o crédito, mas podem aumentar a disparidade entre as regiões, e políticasexpansionistas, além de incentivar atividade econômica, podem levar à convergênciadas condições de crédito entre os municípios., The paper presents the aim to identify the determinants of per capita municipalcredit operations in southeastern Brazil. The analysis method was used dynamicArellano and Bond panel. The main result was that monetary shocks have different effectson municipalities. In regions with abundant credit, the policy is less effective andhas greater impact than in regions with less available credit. This indicates that due tothe lack of regional banks, given a rise in interest rates, banks do not only withdraw the existing offer, but also move part of the resources out of the regions with less available credit to regions with abundant credit, which exacerbates the effect in the region and alleviates the peripheral effect on the developed region. On the other hand, expansionary monetary policy will be more effective in municipalities with less credit, because these regions tend to have a higher unmet demand for credit and greater investment opportunity. Thus, given the current scenario of the Brazilian banking market, it is concluded that the use of monetary policy can increase or decrease the heterogeneous conditions on access to credit, and restrictive monetary policies not only reduce economic activity and credit, but may increase disparity between regions, and expansionist policies can encourage economic activity and lead to the convergence of credit conditions among municipalities.

Some authors have advocated that shifting from fixed exchange rates to floating regimes has not delivered better economic outcomes to developing countries. As the argument goes, pervasive fear of floating in these economies has prevented drops in real interest rates and, more importantly, has been a hindrance in the way towards more monetary policy autonomy. This paper presents evidence suggesting this may not be the case for Brazil. More precisely, there are signs that fear of floating was less acute here (presumably due to low exchange rate pass-through) than elsewhere, and also that policymakers are now targeting monetary policy principally to domestic objectives. RESUMO Alguns autores defendem que a mudança de taxas de câmbio fixas para regimes flutuantes não produziu melhores resultados econômicos para os países em desenvolvimento. De acordo com esse argumento, o medo generalizado de flutuar nessas economias impediu quedas nas taxas de juros reais e, mais importante, tem sido um obstáculo no caminho para uma maior autonomia da política monetária. Este artigo apresenta evidências sugerindo que isso pode não ser o caso do Brasil. Mais precisamente, há sinais de que o medo de flutuar era menos agudo aqui (presumivelmente devido à baixa taxa de câmbio) do que em outros lugares, e também que os formuladores de políticas estão agora direcionando a política monetária principalmente para os objetivos domésticos.

Pesquisa sem auxílio de agências de fomento O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os determinantes das operações compromissadas e a gestão da política monetária brasileira pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) entre os anos de 2011-2018. Os resultados da estimação do Modelo Autorregressivo de Defasagem Distribuída (ARDL) aplicado à cointegração indicaram: (i) as variáveis selecionadas possuem relação de longo prazo entre si e relevância para explicar o movimento expansionista das operações compromissadas; (ii) as reservas internacionais possuem comportamento diretamente proporcional com o saldo das compromissadas, ao passo que o resultado primário tem comportamento inversamente proporcional; (iii) há um caso de baixa velocidade de ajustamento a choques de curto prazo; (iv) swaps cambiais e juros das operações compromissadas não apresentaram significância estatística no período analisado, embora sejam importantes na significância conjunta das variáveis. The aim of this paper is to analyze the determinants of repurchase agreements and the management of Brazilian monetary policy, between 2011 and 2018. ARDL Bounds Testing Approach estimations indicated that: (i) the selected variables cointegrate in the long run and, therefore, they are relevant to explain the expansionary movement of repurchase agreements; (ii) international reserves showed a behavior directly proportional to the balance of repurchase agreements, while the primary result showed an inversely proportional behavior; (iii) there is a low speed of adjustment to short term shocks and (iv) currency swaps and interest payments on repo are not statistically significant, although they are important in the joint significance of the variables, in the long run. Dissertação (Mestrado)

El pensamiento monetarista se fue formando a partir de los años 1950, de la mano de Milton Friedman, Karl Brunner, Allan Meltzer y otros conocidos economistas; alcanzó su mayor esplendor en los años 1970, cuando se enfrentó con el keynesianismo como explicación de las fluctuaciones económicas y la inflación, ejerciendo una notable influencia en el diseño y la aplicación de la política monetaria. Las circunstancias económicas de los años 1980 le hicieron perder relevancia, pero el monetarismo sigue vigente en la actualidad, a través de numerosas ideas que están recogidas en los modelos macroeconómicos y en el trabajo de los bancos centrales, y que la crisis financiera reciente y la Gran Recesión no han hecho sino acrecentar.

La pandemia del Covid-19 ha provocado una de las crisis más importantes desde la Gran Depresión. Ante esto, es necesaria una mayor coordinación entre la política monetaria y las políticas fiscales. En este artículo, se ha analizado el Helicóptero Monetario como posible respuesta a la crisis y como complemento a las medidas adoptadas. Tras presentar evidencia histórica de los efectos del Helicóptero Monetario, examinar los distintos ejemplos propuestos en la literatura, y evaluar sus fortalezas y debilidades, se ha articulado una propuesta para la eurozona a través del Banco Central Europeo (BCE) en coordinación con el grupo del Banco Europeo de Inversiones (BEI), The Covid-19 pandemic has caused one of the most important crises since the Great Depression. In the face of this, greater coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is needed. In this article, the helicopter money proposal has been analyzed as a possible response to the crisis and as a complement to the measures adopted. After describing some historical evidence of the effects of the monetary helicopter, examining the different examples proposed in the literature, and assessing its strengths and weaknesses, a proposal for the eurozone has been articulated through the European Central Bank in cooperation with the European Investment Bank group

Treballs Finals del Grau d'Economia, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2019-2020 , Tutor: M. Soledad Rodríguez Martínez, [cat] Les decisions de política monetària del BCE no sempre han seguit la mateixa trajectòria, sobretot des que la crisi econòmica i financera es va estendre globalment i els principals bancs centrals van veure’s obligats a replantejar-se les mesures anteriorment aplicades. Durant el període 2014-2018, el BCE va aplicar unes mesures en política monetària no convencional sense precedents a la Zona Euro, l’objectiu de les quals era mantenir l’estabilitat de preus. Amb aquest treball es vol realitzar un anàlisi empíric per a veure l’impacte en la economia alemanya de les mesures de política monetària no convencionals (QE) aplicades pel BCE. Em centraré, concretament, en l’ús que el sistema financer alemany va fer de la liquiditat addicional, de les reduccions que es van produir dels tipus d’interès com a conseqüència del QE i de com es van transmetre aquestes polítiques a l’economia real. Finalment, s’ha constatat que les mesures adoptades es van transmetre a l’economia real de forma molt poc rellevant i, per consegüent, empreses i famílies alemanyes no van veure’s beneficiades de les actuacions dutes a terme pel BCE., [eng] The monetary policy decisions of the ECB did not always follow the same trajectory, especially since the economic and financial crisis extended around the globe and the major central banks were obliged to review the monetary measures anteriorly applied. During the period 2014- 2018, the ECB applied the unprecedented unconventional monetary policy at the Euro Zone, the aim of which was to maintain the stability of prices. With this work, I want to conduct an empirical research utilizing data to elaborate graphs and figures, and as a result, explaining the impact of the unconventional monetary policy measures in the German economy. I will focus concretely on the use that the German financial system made of the additional liquidity and the interest rate cuts, as a consequence of the QE and the impact of the adopted policies on the real economy. Finally, I found that the measures adopted were lowly transmitted to the real economy, that is to say, households and firms benefited most from other policies than the unconventional ones adopted by the ECB.

Este artículo busca evidencia sobre los efectos de la comunicación de los bancos centrales. Para ello, se evalúa la capacidad de los mercados financieros para anticipar las decisiones de política monetaria en la economía colombiana. Además, se estiman los efectos que traen las sorpresas en las decisiones del banco central de Colombia sobre la volatilidad de la tasa de cambio. Los resultados muestran que la comunicación del banco central disminuye esta volatilidad; así mismo, se encuentra que otras variables como el riesgo externo, el precio del petróleo y las tasas de interés externas la afectan.

RESUMEN Este artículo examina los efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre los títulos de deuda pública para una economía emergente. Se toma como estudio de caso la economía colombiana con datos referentes al periodo de 2008 a 2016 y se analizan los comunicados de prensa, las minutas y los reportes de inflación. Los hallazgos indican que la comunicación tiene efectos importantes sobre el nivel de los retornos de los títulos de deuda pública al día siguiente de los anuncios del banco central, y el efecto es mayor para las minutas de política monetaria. JEL: E52, E58, E63. ABSTRACT This paper examines the effect of the central bank's communication on public debt for the Colombian economy with data referring to the period 2008-2016. The press releases, the minutes and the inflation reports are analyzed. The findings indicate that communication has important effects on the levels of returns of public debt securities the day after the announcements, and the effect is greater for the monetary policy minutes. JEL: E52, E58, E63. RÉSUMÉ Cet article étudie les effets de la communication de la banque centrale sur les titres de dette publique pour une économie émergente. Nous prenons pour étude de cas l'économie colombienne avec des données relatives à la période 2008 - 2016 et nous analysons les communiqués de presse, les minutes et les rapports d'inflation. Les résultats indiquent que la communication a des effets importants sur le niveau des retours des titres de dette publique le jour qui suit les annonces de la banque centrale, et l'effet est plus important pour les minutes de politique monétaire. JEL: E52, E58, E63. RESUMO Este artigo examina os efeitos da comunicação do banco central sobre os títulos de dívida pública para uma economia emergente. É tomada como estudo de caso a economia colombiana com dados referentes ao período de 2008 a 2016 e são analisados os comunicados de imprensa, as minutas e os relatórios de inflação. As descobertas indicam que a comunicação tem efeitos importantes sobre o nível dos retornos dos títulos de dívida pública no dia seguinte aos anúncios do banco central, e o efeito é maior para as minutas de política monetária. JEL: E52, E58, E63.

Resumen: La inflación de alimentos en Perú tiene un peso importante en la inflación total, por lo que la presencia de efectos de segunda vuelta sobre la inflación subyacente puede ser elevada. Este documento estima el tamaño de estos efectos de segunda vuelta utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general para la economía peruana. Los resultados indican la ausencia de un efecto de segunda vuelta significativo en la inflación peruana, en vista que la inflación de alimentos no juega ningún rol en la formación de expectativas de inflación y en la determinación de salarios.

Resumen En este artículo se realiza una estimación del impacto de la política monetaria sobre la producción en las regiones y sectores de la economía colombiana empleando un modelo de rezagos distribuidos en el que se combinan datos de producción regional y sectorial y una medida de choques de política monetaria estimada con datos del agregado de la economía. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la política monetaria afecta en mayor medida las regiones Pacífico y Caribe y genera importantes diferencias sectoriales, que resultan ser determinantes en la transmisión regional de la política monetaria mediante el canal de tasa de interés. JEL: E52, E58, R11. Abstract This paper estimates the effect of monetary policy on economic activity in Colombia´s regions and economic sectors. In order to achieve this goal a distributed lag model is estimated combining regional and sectoral production data and using a measure of monetary policy shocks estimated with aggregate economy data. The results show that monetary policy mainly affects the Pacific and Caribbean regions and generates sectoral differences in the impact of monetary policy on production. These differences in sectoral impacts prove to be decisive in the regional transmission of monetary policy through the interest rate channel. JEL: E52, E58, R11. Résumé Dans cet article on évalue l’impact de la politique monétaire sur la production dans les régions et secteurs de l’économie colombienne en utilisant un modèle à retards distribués dans lequel se combinent des données de production régionale et sectorielle et une mesure de chocs de politique monétaire évaluée avec des données de l’ensemble de l’économie. Les résultats obtenus montrent que la politique monétaire affecte dans une plus grande mesure les régions du Pacifique et des Caraïbes et entraine d’importantes différences sectorielles, qui sont déterminantes dans la transmission régionale de la politique monétaire par le biais des taux d’intérêt. JEL: E52, E58, R11. Resumo Neste artigo se realiza uma estimação do impacto da política monetária sobre a produção nas regiões e setores da economia colombiana empregando um modelo de resquícios distribuídos no que se combinam dados de produção regional e setorial e uma medida de choques de política monetária estimada com dados do agregado da economia. Os resultados obtidos mostram que a política monetária afeta em maior proporção as regiões Pacífico e Caribe e gera importantes diferenças setoriais, que resultam ser determinantes na transmissão regional da política monetária por meio do canal de taxa de juros. JEL: E52, E58, R11.

Treballs Finals del Grau d'Economia, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, Universitat de Barcelona, Curs: 2018-2019 , Tutor: M.ª Soledad Rodríguez Martínez, (eng) This thesis reflects an analysis in the execution of the monetary policy of the United States. Through its study after the period of the Great Recession until now. Includes a conjunctural analysis of the effects of monetary policies on macroeconomic variables, it intends to reach the conclusion that the Federal Reserve anticipates the events in the establishment of its monetary policies. It contains a description of the functioning of the Federal Reserve and its main entities. It also presents an explanation of the execution of its objectives, and a historical summary of how these were carried out before the recession. As well as the valuation of its independence in the establishment of these objectives. Next, it includes an annual analysis of the Monetary Policy reports of the Federal Reserve, which reflects the economic perspectives and the procedures that the Federal Reserve will fulfil. With these, it carries out a more exhaustive analysis of five selected variables, which are influenced by monetary policy variations: Government sector, household sector, external sector, labor market and prices. Finally, it explains how monetary policy is carried out and the measures that were taken to overcome the crisis (2007-2014) and those that were taken when this crisis was solved (2015-present). This description, together with the analysis of the economic variables, will determine the veracity of the hypothesis raised during the work: The Fed acts ahead of the events., (cast) Esta tesis refleja un análisis en la ejecución de la política monetaria de Estados Unidos. A través, del estudio de esta después del periodo de la Gran Recesión hasta actualmente. Incluye un análisis coyuntural de los efectos de las políticas monetarias en las variables macroeconómicas, pretende llegar a la conclusión que la Reserva Federal se anticipa a los acontecimientos en el establecimiento de sus políticas monetarias. Muestra una descripción del funcionamiento de la Reserva Federal y sus principales entidades. Asimismo, presenta una explicación de la ejecución de sus objetivos, y una síntesis histórica de como estos se realizaron antes de la recesión. Así como la valoración de su independencia en el establecimiento de estos objetivos. Seguidamente, incluye un análisis anual de los reportes de Política Monetaria de la Reserva Federal, dónde se refleja las perspectivas económicas y los procedimientos que llevara a cabo la Reserva Federal. A partir de ahí, realiza un análisis más exhaustivo de cinco variables seleccionadas, las cuales se ven influenciadas por los cambios en la política monetaria: Sector gubernamental, sector doméstico, sector externo, mercado laboral y precios. Finalmente, se explica cómo se efectúa la política monetaria y las medidas que se tomaron para salir de la crisis (2007-2014) y las que se tomaron cuando esta crisis se determinó resuelta (2015-actualmente). Esta descripción, junto con el análisis de las variables económicas, determinarán la veracidad de la hipótesis planteada durante el trabajo: la Fed actúa adelantándose a los acontecimientos.

Since the early 1990s, several countries have adopted inflation targeting (IT). However, IT may not be sufficient to ensure fiscal discipline, and governments can still pursue irresponsible fiscal policies under IT. The adoption of irresponsible policies, which lead to a weak fiscal credibility, could undermine the credibility of the central bank. In the present study, we investigate whether a correlation between fiscal credibility and central bank credibility exists. The study contributes to the literature since it presents evidence on the relation between fiscal credibility and central bank credibility. The empirical analysis uses different econometric techniques (OLS, GMM and TOBIT). The findings suggest a positive relation between fiscal credibility and central bank credibility Resumo A partir da década de 1990, vários países adotaram o regime de metas de inflação (RMI). Entretanto, o RMI pode não ser garantia suficiente para a disciplina fiscal, e governos podem continuar adotando políticas fiscais irresponsáveis. A adoção de políticas irresponsáveis, as quais levam à uma fraca credibilidade fiscal, enfraquece a credibilidade do banco central. No presente estudo, investigamos se existe uma correlação entre a credibilidade fiscal e a credibilidade do banco central. O trabalho contribui com a literatura uma vez que apresenta evidências empíricas acerca da relação entre credibilidade fiscal e credibilidade do banco central. A análise empírica emprega diferentes métodos econométricos (OLS, GMM e TOBIT). Os resultados sugerem uma relação positiva entre a credibilidade fiscal a credibilidade do banco central.

To our knowledge, this paper is the first to discuss the response of European energy commodity prices to unexpected monetary policy surprises from the European Central Bank (ECB). Using the Rigobon (2003) identification through heteroscedasticity method, we find a significant and positive response during the crisis period for Brent and coal. Similar results are obtained by other authors for European financial assets in this period. This result reinforces the idea that during this period, financial assets and some commodities positively responded to conventional and unconventional expansionary monetary policy measures, increasing confidence about the survival of the European monetary union. The remaining European energy commodities (electricity, EUAs, and natural gas prices) seem to be unaffected by monetary policy actions. We think these results are of interest to those economic agents and institutions involved in European energy markets and are especially important for the European Central Bank in order to predict the consequences of its monetary policy on the inflation objective.Keywords: Monetary policy, European Central Bank, energy commoditiesJEL Classifications: C26, E58, G13, Q41DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7190

RESUMENEstimamos la tasa de desempleo no aceleradora de la inflación (NAIRU) para México (2002Q1-2018Q2) con la metodología de Ball y Mankiw (2002) utilizando el método generalizado de momentos. Probamos que el cálculo de la NAIRU con esta metodología es más eficiente que el puramente estadístico (filtro HP). Mostramos que: a) la crisis Punto Com y la Gran Recesión generaron efectos reales y duraderos en el mercado laboral; b) probamos que la política monetaria en México ha sido estabilizadora, y c) que la relación entre el desempleo y la inflación se ha fortalecido en los últimos años. ESTIMATION OF THE NAIRU FOR MEXICO, 2002Q1-2018Q2ABSTRACTWe estimate the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) for Mexico (2002Q1-2018Q2) with Ball and Mankiw’s (2002) methodology using the Generalized Method of Moments. We prove that, with this methodology, the calculation of NAIRU is more efficient than the one calculated with the HP filter. We show that: a) the Dot Com and the Great Recession crises have had real and lasting effects on the labor market; b) Mexico´s monetary policy has been stabilizing, and c) the relationship between unemployment and inflation has strengthened over the last years.