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This paper assesses the relation between access to markets and cultivated land in Sub-Saharan Africa. Making use of a geo-referenced panel over three decades (1970-2005) during which the road network was significantly improved, the analysis finds a modest but significant positive association between increased market accessibility and local cropland expansion. It also finds that cropland expansion, in turn, is associated with a small but significant increase in local gross domestic product. These results are suggestive of agricultural activities that develop at the extensive margin, which are mostly to serve local demand, but are not indicative of commercial agriculture that serves external markets.

One of the primary motivations behind the establishment of noncontributory pension programs is to allow beneficiaries to retire from the labor force. Yet, as with other unconditional cash transfer schemes, their aggregate effects may be more complex. Using panel data and instrumental variable techniques, this paper shows that the effect of one such program, Colombia Mayor, has been to raise the labor force participation of relatively younger male beneficiaries. This increase occurred precisely in the occupations with characteristics that are likely to require some up-front investment. The paper concludes that the transfer effectively loosened the liquidity constraints to remaining in these occupations. However, no such effect is found among women or older beneficiaries.

This paper analyzes the socioeconomic, fiscal, and governance impact of gold mining in Mali. The analysis finds that, at the national level, mining plays an important role by contributing to export earnings and overall government fiscal revenue. In 2013, the mining sector represented 7 percent of gross domestic product, contributed 1.5 percent to growth in total gross domestic product, and accounted for 65 percent of total export earnings and 25 percent of total government budget revenues. At the local level, despite higher population growth, there is some evidence that outcomes (poverty and infrastructure services) are marginally better in mining communes compared with non-mining communes. Local governments receive fiscal windfalls that are spent significantly on education capital expenditures and current expenditures (salaries and non-salaries). Non-salary current expenditures are 10 times higher in mining areas. Analysis of the political economy of public service provision at the local level suggests that technical or absorptive capacities may be the bottleneck to increasing the local benefit of mining instead of corruption or accountability.

Evidence shows that foreign direct investment can provide many benefits to host countries, including productivity improvements, better jobs, and knowledge transfer. Further, it can serve as a vehicle for transformation of domestic production and better integration with global value chains. Nonetheless, these benefits are not automatic. Investment policies are required to maximize the potential gains of foreign direct investment. One challenge is that there are different kinds of foreign direct investment, and each may have different economic, social, and environmental impacts. However, the literature analyzing foreign direct investment often tends to swing from an extremely case-specific focus — analyzing experiences in one particular country in a single sector during a given period — to lumping together the analysis as if it was a homogenous phenomenon. Investment policy formulation requires a framework sophisticated enough to differentiate between the various kinds of foreign direct investment, as well as potential challenges and benefits for development. It must also be simple enough to enable governments to organize and prioritize the multiple and complex variables affecting the maximization of investment benefits. This paper presents an overview of the literature on the impact of foreign direct investment. The paper argues that a logical framework is needed to organize existing evidence from research to fill gaps in the literature and make existing evidence more useful in targeting policy making.

The authors have assembled 1960–2012 infrastructure stock data from 145 countries to estimate the demand for infrastructure services in emerging markets and developing economies. This paper identifies that the required resource flows to satisfy new demand while maintaining service for existing infrastructure amounts to $836 billion or 6.1 percent of current gross domestic product per year over the period 2014–20. The annual infrastructure investment gap for emerging markets and developing economies is $452 billion per year, which implies that emerging markets and developing economies should almost double their current spending. The paper also estimates that half of the spending should be allocated to maintenance of existing assets. Acknowledging the challenges to compare infrastructure investment estimates across different methodologies, the authors recognize this result as a lower bound estimate and compare the results with others available in the literature.

Private investment in agriculture in developing countries, both domestic and foreign, has been on the rise for nearly two decades. This paper focuses on large-scale agricultural projects in developing countries, involving the lease of farmland, which rose sharply after the food crisis of 2008. It is important that such investments are sustainable not only in the long term, but also beneficial in the short term with minimal risks or negative effects. This paper looks at one approach to achieving this namely, carefully devised contracts with investors, and in doing so offers a number of concrete solutions. This paper marries two substantial bodies of research to show how investment contracts can be set up to promote sustainable development. The paper presents the top five positive outcomes and the five downsides from private sector investments in large scale agricultural projects. This is derived from empirical evidence gathered by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the World Bank after visiting large-scale agricultural projects (UNCTAD and World Bank 2014). The paper then proposes legal options to maximizing the main positive outcomes and minimizing the main downsides through better drafting of contracts between investors and governments for the lease of farmland. This derived from work conducted by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), which studied almost 80 contracts and produced a guide to negotiating contracts for farmland and water, including a model contract.

The Sustainable Development Goals, the global development agenda for 2015 through 2030, will require unprecedented mobilization of resources to support their implementation. Their predecessor, the Millennium Development Goals, focused on a limited number of concrete, global human development targets that can be monitored by statistically robust indicators. The Millennium Development Goals set the stage for global support of ambitious development goals behind which the world must rally. The Sustainable Development Goals bring forward the unfinished business of the Millennium Development Goals and go even further. Because of the transformative and sustainable nature of the new development agenda, all possible resources must be mobilized if the world is to succeed in meeting its targets. Thus, the potential for Islamic finance to play a role in supporting the Sustainable Development Goals is explored in this paper. Given the principles of Islamic finance that support socially inclusive and development promoting activities, the Islamic financial sector has the potential to contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The paper examines the role of Islamic financial institutions, capital markets, and the social sector in promoting strong growth, enhanced financial inclusion, and intermediation, reducing risks and vulnerability of the poor and more broadly contributing to financial stability and development.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to theunderstanding and discussion of how the costs andbenefits of natural resource development are sharedacross society. This paper presents how IFC, as both aninvestor and a development organization, determineswhether benefits and costs are shared reasonably, and how this assessment influences IFC’s decision to invest ina particular natural resource project. the goal of the paper is to promotea broad, constructive dialogue across stakeholders—governments, investors, civil society, and others—around benefit sharing. The paper draws on IFC’s experience and presents anoverarching framework for multi-stakeholder benefitsharing, providing analysis and guidance for a range ofcomplex topics. The paper is intended to provide entrypoints for stakeholders of varying levels of familiarity with the issues to benefit-sharing assessment. The paper is not a definitive manual for all the issues coveredfor which more detailed, high-quality and excellentreferences and literature exists. This paper is organized along these broad areas of impact that IFC considers in the benefit sharing assessment:fiscal, economic, environmental, and social. The approaches IFC uses to evaluate benefit sharing arepresented in each area, along with some lessons learned. This is complemented by a discussion of key issues thatare topical in the field. Each chapter opens with a list of questions that can be used as a guide to assess the potential benefits and costs of an investment. As a result, there is a spectrum of what can be considered reasonable overall. However, there may be particular features of a benefit-sharing arrangement that stand out and can signal a risk to its legitimacy. Our aspiration is that this paper will complement as well as stimulate work by others that can enhance the collective knowledge and encourage dialogue.

Bhutan and Botswana share a number of similarities. The two countries, land locked small states, have grown rapidly over the past few decades, boosted by sustained, large-scale inflows of foreign exchange. Botswana’s annual real growth rate averaged 9 percent over the past 40 years, driven by diamond exploration, whereas Bhutan has taken full advantage of generous foreign aid inflows to achieve an average growth rate of 8 percent per year for the past 30 years. However, after decades of rapid growth, the production base of both countries remains very narrow and the economy continues to directly or indirectly dependent on government demand. Job creation, particularly for the youths, is an important policy issue. Despite these similarities, Bhutan and Botswana exhibit an interesting contrast with regard to the management of volatile foreign exchange inflows, and its macroeconomic consequences. Notwithstanding the serious impact of the recent global crisis, today Botswana’s external position remains solid, guarded by sizable international reserves and low external debt. In contrast, Bhutan has accumulated large external debt and its international reserves are under significant pressure. This paper discusses Bhutan and Botswana’s experiences with managing volatile foreign exchange inflows. It assesses the nature and domestic economic consequences of volatile flows, and analyzes the policy measures that have been used to respond to revenue volatility. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section two analyzes Botswana’s experience of managing large, volatile diamond export earnings. Section three reviews more recent experience of Bhutan. Section four draws policy lessons from the experience of two countries. Finally section five concludes the paper.

Self-help groups (SHGs) are the most common form of microfinance in India. The authors provide evidence that SHGs, composed of women only, undertake collective actions for the provision of public goods within village communities. Using a theoretical model, this paper shows that an elected official, whose aim is to maximize re-election chances, exerts higher effort in providing public goods when private citizens undertake collective action and coordinate their voluntary contributions towards the same goods. This effect occurs although government and private contributions are assumed to be substitutes in the technology of providing public goods. Using first-hand data on SHGs in India, the paper tests the prediction of the model and shows that, in response to collective action by SHGs, local authorities tackle a larger variety of public issues, and are more likely to tackle issues of interest to SHGs. The findings highlight how the social behavior of SHGs can influence the governance of rural Indian communities.

The world development report 2010 estimates that an additional $200 billion per year of climate-related financing is needed in developing countries between now and 2030 to keep global average temperature rise within 2 degrees Celsius. Developing countries face increased financing challenges over coming decades as they seek to pursue economic development along a lower emission trajectory. The goal of this paper is twofold: i) to provide greater information and clarity on these three mitigation-related climate financing instruments available for the World Bank Group (WBG) and their application in the context of specific projects and national policy frameworks; and ii) to draw lessons for the broader development community on how resources from different climate financing instruments can be combined for expanded impact, increased leverage, and enhanced efficiency. This paper represents an initial contribution to this field and will be followed by papers focusing on guarantees for low-carbon growth support for the private sector and the challenges of financing climate resilience and adaptation.

This paper proposes and illustrates a methodology to assess the economic cost of the sovereign risk finance instruments available to the Government of Ethiopia and its development partners for financing the shock-responsive scalability component of the Productive Safety Net Programme. The methodology involves: (i) specifying rules for when additional expenditures would be triggered in each woreda; (ii) specifying alternative risk finance strategies; and (iii) analyzing the costs of each risk financing strategy, including sensitivity and scenario testing of the results. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical set of rules for drought-responsive scalability, and a range of potential risk finance strategies.

Studies on the link between financial development and poverty have been inconclusive. Some claim that deeper financial sectors should improve the allocation of capital by allowing entrepreneurs greater access to finance, which should particularly favor the poor. Others argue that improvements in the financial system primarily benefit the rich and politically connected. The literature has also been ambiguous about the channels through which finance may be associated with lower poverty (deposits versus credit). Looking at a sample of 37 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1992 through 2006, the paper suggests that financial deepening is associated with lower poverty through different channels depending on the strength of property rights. In the absence of well-defined and enforced property rights, wider access to saving and risk-sharing instruments is accompanied by a reduction in poverty. Only once property rights grow stronger is credit associated with lower poverty.

Evidence illustrates that investment in infrastructure is essential to accelerate inclusive growth. Indeed, a number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have begun to devote greater resources to large-scale public investment projects. Nevertheless, while massive projects can potentially generate large benefits there are considerable risks. Cost overruns, poor implementation quality, inadequate operational and maintenance capacity, and negative social or environmental impacts can severely undercut a project’s anticipated social and economic returns. Moreover, projects, which are expensive to develop and maintain can impact on debt dynamics and in some cases macroeconomic stability. Yet, given the complex nature of such projects it is often difficult to ascertain whether it is worthwhile to proceed with a project and if so, how should it be financed and implemented. Historically, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been used to assess the prospective impacts of large public investment projects. However, such models are a complex and time-consuming process and are often too broad to precisely capture the localized impact of specific projects. This paper proposes a simple, but more user-friendly model. By inputting information on the project’s construction, operation, and anticipated returns, the user is able to assess the project’s net impact on the economy and weigh up the costs and benefits of different approaches. The model was developed in response to a request from the Nigerien authorities to assess the macroeconomic impact of Niger’s Kandaji Dam project. It found that while costs would equal more than 10 percent of 2013 GDP during 2014-48, the expansion of domestic production spurred by increased demand during the construction phase will increase GDP by 0.25 percent above the baseline projection and boost fiscal revenues by an additional 0.45 percentage points of GDP.

This paper addresses the role of market remoteness in explaining maize price volatility in Burkina Faso. A model of price formation is introduced to demonstrate formally that transport costs between urban and rural markets exacerbate maize price volatility. Empirical support is provided to the proposition by exploring an unusually rich data set of monthly maize price series across 28 markets over 2004-13. The methodology relies on an autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model to investigate the statistical effect of road quality and distance from urban consumption centers on maize price volatility. The analysis finds that maize price volatility is greatest in remote markets. The results also show that maize-surplus markets and markets bordering Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo have experienced more volatile prices than maize-deficit and non-bordering markets. The findings suggest that enhancing road infrastructure would strengthen the links between rural markets and major consumption centers, thereby also stabilizing maize prices.

The explosive growth of green bonds in the capital markets is increasingly attracting attention from investors. This surge in interest has created a demand for accessible information on the green bond market. This primer was created in response to this demand and covers the principles of this relatively new financial instrument. The following intends to serve as a guide for those interested in better understanding the nature of green bonds. The content will aim to distinguish green bonds from other traditional financial instruments. It will also provide insight into the potential of green bonds to mobilize new sources of climate finance. This paper includes the following highlights: understanding bonds (chapter one); understanding green bonds (chapter two); and benefits and potential.