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Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women's completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women's fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education. ispartof: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POPULATION-REVUE EUROPEENNE DE DEMOGRAPHIE vol:37 issue:1 pages:263-295 ispartof: location:Netherlands status: published

This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation. Postprint

For a long time, high‐income countries tended to report a negative association between female educational attainment and childbearing. Belgium was among the first countries that seemed to witness the emergence of a positive educational gradient in female fertility. It has been argued that—alongside other contextual correlates—this trend reflects the increasing availability of work–family reconciliation policies from which especially highly educated people benefit. In contrast to the sizable body of literature assessing varying educational gradients in female fertility across countries, subnational regional variation has hitherto received little attention. As a result, we study the Belgian case using unique microdata covering all residents in 2002–2005. The main focus is on the relevance of between‐municipality variation in economic conditions and childcare services for understanding variation in second birth hazards by educational attainment. We show that a considerable part of the municipal variation in the educational gradient in second birth hazards reflects a positive link between fertility and childcare provisions as well as wealth for highly educated women, contrasting with lower educated groups. Our findings suggest that institutional support for families is relevant but also incurs the risk of increased social polarisation.

Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility–development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies towards a reversal are observed. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-018-9485-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. Recent methodological advancements in imputing missing paternal ages at childbirth enable us to provide a new database on male fertility. This new resource covers more than 330 million live births and is based on a consistent and well-tested set of methods. These methods allow us to handle missing information on the paternal age, which is missing for roughly 10% of births. The data resource is made available in the Human Fertility Collection and allows for the first time a comparative perspective on male fertility in high-income countries using high-quality birth register data. We analyze trends in male–female fertility quantum and tempo differentials across 17 high-income countries, dating as back as far as the late 1960s for some countries, and with data available for the majority of countries from the 1980s onward. Using descriptive and counterfactual analysis methods, we find substantial variation both across countries and over time. Related to the quantum we demonstrate that disparities between male and female period fertility rates are driven to a large degree by the interplay of parental age and cohort size differences. For parental age differences at childbirth, we observe a development toward smaller disparities, except in Eastern Europe. This observation fits with expectations based on gender theories. However, variation across countries also seems to be driven by factors other than gender equality. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10680-020-09575-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Obtaining cross-country comparative perspectives on male fertility has long been difficult, as male fertility is usually less well registered than female fertility. This paper presents analyses based on a new male fertility database providing data on more than 330 million live births. This new resource, made available in the Human Fertility Collection, allows for the first time a comparative perspective on male fertility in high-income countries using high-quality birth register data. Contrasting male and female fertility trends across 17 countries, we show that trends in disparities between male and female period fertility rates are driven to a large degree by the interplay of parental age and cohort size differences. For parental age differences at childbirth, we observe a tendency toward smaller disparities, except in Eastern Europe. This observation fits with expectations based on gender theories. However, variation across countries also seems to be driven by factors other than gender equality.

Most studies on the fertility transition have focused either on macro-level trends or on micro-level patterns with limited geographic scope. Much less attention has been given to the interplay between individual characteristics and contextual conditions, including geographic location. Here we investigate the relevance of geography and socioeconomic status for understanding fertility variation in the initial phase of the Swedish fertility transition. We conduct spatially sensitive multilevel analyses on full-count individual-level census data. Our results show that the elite constituted the vanguard group in the fertility decline and that the shift in fertility behavior occurred quickly among them in virtually all parts of Sweden. Other socioeconomic status groups experienced the decline with some delay, and their decline patterns were more clustered around early centers of the decline. Long-distance migrants initially had higher fertility than people living close to their birthplace. However, as the fertility decline unfolded, this advantage was either reduced or reversed. This supports the view that migration and fertility are linked in this process. Our results confirm that socioeconomic status differences were of considerable relevance in structuring the fertility transition. The degree to which spatial distance fostered spatial variation in the fertility decline seems to have been negatively correlated with socioeconomic status, with the pattern of decline among the elite showing the lowest degree of spatial variation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-018-0737-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

"This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: [Dommermuth, L, Klüsener, S. Formation and realisation of moving intentions across the adult life course. Popul Space Place. 2018;e2212. ], which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2212. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions." Residential and migratory moves are frequently regarded as instruments to attain other life goals. Thus, empirical studies increasingly link moves to other life course events. However, to fully understand moving decisions, it is also necessary to consider prior plans in various life domains, as not all life course plans and potentially related moves are realised. On the basis of representative data for Norway, these aspects are analysed for four life phases: the young adult phase, the family phase, the middle age phase, and the retirement phase. For all four life phases, highly significant associations between intentions and events in various life domains and moving intentions and actual moves are obtained. The relevance of specific domains for the formulation of moving intentions and actual moves is subject to variation across the life course and dependent on whether all moves or only moves over longer distances are considered.

Comparative perspectives on men's fertility are still rare, in part because vital registration data are often missing paternal age information for a substantial number of births. We compare two imputation approaches that attempt to estimate men's age-specific fertility rates and related measures for data in which paternal age information is missing for a non-negligible number of cases. Taking births with paternal age information as a reference, the first approach uses the unconditional paternal age distribution, while the second approach considers the paternal age distribution conditional on the maternal age. To assess the performance of these two methods, we conduct simulations that mimic vital registration data for Sweden, the United States, Spain, and Estonia. In these simulations, we vary the overall proportion and the age selectivity of missing values. We find that the conditional approach outperforms the unconditional approach in the majority of simulations and therefore should be generally preferred.

To derive reliable demographic indicators, appropriate data on population exposures are needed. Access to such data is becoming increasingly challenging in many countries due to factors such as the growing diversity of international migration patterns and the trend towards replacing full censuses with register-based censuses. Germany represents a particularly challenging case in this respect. Before Germany implemented its first register-based census in 2011, the country had not conducted a census for more than two decades. This census revealed that the number of people living in Germany in 2011 was about 1.5 million lower than the previous official post-censal population estimates for that year indicated. It is likely that a large portion of this discrepancy had existed for quite some time prior to 2011. Due to the long inter-censal period, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany decided not to produce backward-adjusted population estimates by single-year ages and sex for the whole period. The main aim of this paper is thus to make such detailed adjusted inter-censal population estimates available. While we have to take the peculiarities of the German case into account, our evaluation of different strategies offers important insights for developing a generalised methodology to adjust inter-censal population estimates for globalised countries that face challenges in ensuring the proper registration of migration events. We discuss four alternative approaches for deriving adjusted inter-censal population estimates. The results suggest that even for a rather complicated case like Germany, a relatively simple approach seems to work reasonably well. Finally, we demonstrate to what extent the implemented adjustments affect mortality indicators. The adjusted inter-censal population estimates for Germany and its federal states are provided in the online data appendix., Comparative Population Studies, Vol 43 (2018)

This article investigates spatiotemporal variation in non-marital fertility across Europe over the last 100 years. In the first 50 years of this period, non-marital fertility was generally declining, reaching very low levels in the mid-twentieth century. But starting in the 1960s, non-marital fertility increased strongly. The main aim of this paper is to investigate to what degree the persistence of the past might be relevant for understanding spatial aspects of the recent rise. A secondary aim is to explore how spatial non-marital fertility variation is likely to develop in the future, both between and within countries. The outcomes support the view that historical patterns are relevant for understanding current non-marital fertility variation in most parts of Europe. However, the persistence of the past varies spatially, and seems to fade over time. The analysis of current trends in spatial variation between countries suggests that an east–west dichotomy is currently emerging: i.e., countries that are n...

Lithuania represents one of the rare cases in which a state with relatively high standards for maintaining population statistics is experiencing mass emigration. In light of the policy initiatives undertaken by the Lithuanian government to address the issue of emigration, this study aims to improve our understanding of how, in this mass emigration context, emigration events are connected to specific socio-economic characteristics of individuals and variation in local socio-economic conditions. We analyse census and vital registration data covering the whole working-age population of Lithuania during the period 2011-2012. Our findings indicate that when assessing the likelihood of emigration events, individual-level characteristics such as employment status, educational attainment, and prior migration experience are highly relevant. However, the importance of these characteristics differs by gender. We also detect considerable spatial variation in emigration rates across Lithuanian municipalities. Our outcomes provide new insights for the development of cohesive migration policies in Lithuania.

While regional mortality inequalities in Germany tend to be relatively stable in the short run, over the course of the past century marked changes have occurred in the country's regional mortality patterns. These changes include not only the re-emergence of stark differences between eastern and western Germany after 1970, which have almost disappeared again in the decades after the reunification of Germany in 1990; but also substantial changes in the disparities between northern and southern Germany. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the northern regions in Germany had the highest life expectancy levels, while the southern regions had the lowest. Today, this mortality pattern is reversed. In this paper, we study these long-term trends in spatial mortality disparities in Germany since 1910, and link them with theoretical considerations and existing research on the possible determinants of these patterns. Our findings support the view that the factors which contributed to shape spatial mortality variation have changed substantially over time, and suggest that the link between regional socioeconomic conditions and recorded mortality levels strengthened over the last 100 years.Regionale Unterschiede in der Sterblichkeit in Deutschland erweisen sich kurzfristig betrachtet als relativ stabil. Im Laufe des letzten Jahrhunderts wurden allerdings deutliche Veränderungen in den regionalen Sterblichkeitsmustern verzeichnet. Hierzu zählt nicht nur das Wiederauftreten ausgeprägter Ost-West-Unterschiede ab 1970, die in den Jahrzehnten nach der deutschen Wiedervereinigung 1990 fast wieder verschwunden sind. Vielmehr haben sich auch substanzielle Verschiebungen zwischen Nord- und Süddeutschland ergeben. Zu Beginn des 20. Jahrhunderts registrierten die norddeutschen Regionen die höchsten Lebenserwartungsniveaus, während die süddeutschen Landesteile die niedrigsten verzeichneten. Über die letzten 100 Jahre hat sich dieses räumliche Muster weitgehend umgekehrt. In diesem Beitrag analysieren wir die langfristigen Entwicklungen der räumlichen Mortalitätsunterschiede in Deutschland seit 1910. Die beobachteten Veränderungen setzen wir in Bezug zu theoretischen Überlegungen und existierenden Forschungsergebnissen zu möglichen Ursachen für regionale Mortalitätstrends. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen auf, dass sich die Zusammensetzung der maßgeblich zur Entwicklung der regionalen Sterblichkeitsmuster beitragenden Faktoren über die Zeit erheblich verändert hat. Außerdem scheint sich der Zusammenhang zwischen regionalen sozioökonomischen Bedingungen und den registrierten Sterblichkeitsniveaus in den letzten 100 Jahren verstärkt zu haben.

This article contributes to the geographic analysis of fertility decline in the demographic transition in Europe. We reanalyze Galloway Hammel and Lees (1994) Prussian data with spatial analysis methods. Our multivariate analysis provides evidence of the predictive effect of both economic and cultural variables. Furthermore even after all of the observable economic social and cultural variables have been controlled for our findings show that a significant unexplained geographic clustering of fertility decline remains. We then specify spatial econometric models which show that in addition to economic and cultural factors socio-geographic factors such as being adjacent to areas of sharp fertility decline are also needed to understand the pattern of fertility decline. These results provide new support for the role of social diffusion in the process while allowing for the direct structural effects of economic change.

Over the last 25 years, a large number of studies have looked at the demographic differences between the previously divided eastern and western parts of Germany. The two regions have converged with respect to mortality and overall fertility levels. But in terms of family formation behaviour, differences remain. Non-marital births are the norm in eastern Germany, whereas they are still the exception in western Germany. Various explanations for these differences have been offered, with the most persuasive linking policy and socio-economic conditions in eastern and western Germany after 1945 with the persistence of regional patterns. Here, we show that the non-marital fertility divide pre-dates the 1945 division of Germany. Indeed, already in the early 20th century, the areas of eastern Germany that made up the German Democratic Republic had, on average, roughly twice the non-marital fertility levels of western Germany. In the first part of our paper, we document the history of this long-standing pattern and provide a set of explanations for its emergence. In the second part, we apply multi-level models to birth register data to explore whether East–West differences in non-marital fertility would remain even under scenarios such as convergence in secularisation levels and economic conditions. The persistence of the past suggests that explanations for family formation differences between eastern and western Germany based solely on the most recent and current conditions are incomplete, and that convergence, if it occurs at all, will take longer than anticipated, perhaps lasting many decades or more. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

L’Allemagne du xixe siecle est un laboratoire particulierement interessant pour l’etude des differences demographiques entre regions, et pourtant les structures de la famille a cette epoque dans cette partie de l’Europe restent peu explorees. Cet article analyse la variabilite des situations domestiques avec une mesure agregee de la complexite des menages fondee sur les statistiques publiees du recensement allemand de 1885. Des methodes descriptives et des techniques de modelisation spatiale permettent d’examiner les hypotheses existantes sur les determinants de la complexite des menages. Les variations regionales de la structure des menages sont-elles associees aux variations concernant l’emploi agricole, les pratiques d’heritage, l’appartenance ethnique et d’autres caracteristiques socio-economiques ? Les regions ou la complexite des menages etait faible se concentrent dans le sud-ouest et le sud de l’Allemagne, et celles ou la complexite etait forte dans le nord et le nord-est. Quant aux differences macro-regionales socio-economiques et culturelles, dont on sait qu’elles existaient en Allemagne a la fin du xixe siecle et qu’on pensait decisives, elles ne s’averent que faiblement associees aux schemas spatiaux de complexite des menages. Ces resultats sont coherents avec l’hypothese de Ruggles (2009), selon laquelle les variations spatiales des structures de menage sont essentiellement liees au degre d’emploi dans l’agriculture et aux caracteristiques demographiques.

Background: Research on fertility differentials between eastern and western Germany after German reunification in 1990 has focused on the fertility of women. Trends in the fertility of men are rarely studied due to data constraints and methodological challenges. Objective: This paper aims to close this gap by analyzing fertility differentials between eastern and western German males over the period 1991-2013. We consider different approaches to estimate male fertility and investigate variation in fertility trends, levels, and timing. Methods: We use German birth register data to estimate age-specific fertility rates and total fertility rates. As the paternal age is unknown for a non-negligible proportion of births, we compare imputation techniques and conduct sensitivity analyses. For the population at risk we employ adjusted numbers that attempt to account for the overcount in the population of childbearing age in the 1990s and the 2000s. Results: The trends and differences in the fertility of eastern and western German men are roughly similar to those observed among women. However, male fertility levels are lower, and male and female fertility vary in terms of timing. The total fertility rate of eastern German males in 1994 of 0.74 is likely to represent a record low. Whereas the fertility levels of eastern German women recently surpassed those of western German women, the fertility levels of eastern German men are still lower than those of their western German counterparts. Contribution: We compare methods to estimate male fertility trends.

Most existing studies on the fertility transition focus either on macro-level trends or on micro-level patterns with limited geographic scope. Much less attention has been given to the interplay between individual characteristics and contextual conditions, including geographic location. This paper contributes to closing this research gap. We investigate the relevance of geography and socioeconomic status (SES) for understanding fertility variation in the initial phase of the fertility decline in Sweden. Spatially-sensitive multi-level analyses are applied to study fertility trends by SES and parish, using full-count individual-level census data for 1880, 1890, and 1900. Our results show that the elite not only constituted the vanguard group in the fertility decline, but that the shift in fertility behavior occurred quickly among this social class in virtually all parts of Sweden. Other social classes experienced the decline with some delay in both central and peripheral areas, and their patterns of decline were more clustered in and around the early centers of the decline compared to the pattern of the elite. Long-distance migrants, who were disproportionately represented among the elite and who initially had higher fertility, were among the pioneers in the process. This suggests that factors such as social connectedness through space and local social embeddedness were important in determining the early adoption of changes in fertility behavior. Our results confirm the view that social status and social class boundaries were of considerable relevance in structuring the fertility transition. The importance of space for understanding variation in the fertility decline seems to be negatively correlated with social status, with the pattern of decline among the elite showing the lowest degree of spatial variation.

Background: Differences in demographic behaviours across countries and subnational regions have stimulated interest in studying the relationships between individual characteristics and the contexts in which individuals are embedded. Analytical approaches that include contextual indicators in statistical analyses of demographic behaviour need well-documented comparative data at the national and the subnational regional level. The Contextual Database (CDB) of the Generations and Gender Programme (GGP; http://www.ggp-i.org/data/ggp-contextual-database) supports such analyses by providing comparative data on demographic and socio-economic contexts in up to 60 countries in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania. Objective: This paper presents conceptual considerations and an overview of the content and the functionality of the CDB. Research examples illustrate how data from this database can increase the analytical potential of demographic analyses. Conclusions: The CDB is a state-of-the-art research tool that provides well-documented comparative data at the national and the subnational regional level. Although it is conceptually linked to the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), it can also be used to analyse data from other surveys, to study macro developments, and for teaching and lecturing. The CDB has a number of valuable features. First, it has a large number of indicators specifically geared towards demographic analyses, which provide extensive temporal and geographic coverage. Second, its dynamic web environment provides a high degree of transparency on data sources, as it offers meta-data for each individual entry. Finally, the CDB supports geocoding schemes that are used by the GGS and other surveys to denote region and country of residence.

Childbearing outside of marriage has increased drastically in recent decades. However, the existing explanations for this development are not coherent. Proponents of the Second Demographic Transition framework view the rise in nonmarital childbearing as part of a pattern of progress driven by processes such as emancipation from traditional social norms, whereas other scholars perceive this trend in the context of a “pattern of disadvantage,” as nonmarital births are often concentrated among lower socioeconomic groups. In this paper, we posit that the relevance of the aforementioned theoretical explanations might vary depending on the geographic scale at which variation occurs: that is, across nation states, subnational regions, or individuals. To explore this hypothesis, we analyse harmonised survey data from 16 European countries. We apply hierarchical models to study how the likelihood that a woman living in a couple will have her first child either within nonmarital cohabitation or within marriage is linked to national and subnational regional variation in socioeconomic conditions that are related to explanations based on the existing theoretical considerations. Our results suggest that the Second Demographic Transition framework is very important for understanding variation between countries, whereas arguments pointing to a pattern of disadvantage seem to be more relevant at the individual and subnational regional level. It thus appears that taking a multilevel perspective can help us better understand why the existing theoretical explanations are not fully coherent.

BackgroundThe economic stress hypothesis (ESH) predicts decreases in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) following economic decline. However, as many factors influence the SRB, this hypothesis is difficult to test empirically. Thus, researchers make use of quasi-experiments such as German reunification: The economy in East, but not in West Germany, underwent a rapid decline in 1991. A co-occurrence of a decline in the East German SRB in 1991 has been interpreted by some as support for the ESH. However, another explanation might be that the low SRB in 1991 stems from increased random variation in the East German SRB due to a drastically reduced number of births during the crisis. We look into this alternative random variation hypothesis (RVH) by re-examining the German case with more detailed data.MethodsOur analysis has two parts. First, using aggregate-level birth register data for all births in the period between 1946 and 2011, we plot the quantum and variance of the SRB and the number of births and unemployment rates, separately for East and West Germany, and conduct a time series analysis on the East German SRB over time. Second, we model the odds for a male birth at the individual level in a multiple logistic regression (1991–2010, ~13.9 million births). Explanatory variables are related to the level of the individual birth, the mother of the child born, and the regional economic context.ResultsThe aggregate-level analysis reveals a higher degree of variation of the SRB in East Germany. Deviations from the time trend occur in several years, seemingly unrelated to economic development, and the deviation in 1991 is not statistically significant. The individual-level analysis confirms that the 1991-drop in the East German SRB cannot directly be attributed to economic development and that there is no statistically significant effect of economic development on sex determination in East or West Germany.ConclusionOutcomes support the RVH but not the ESH. Furthermore, our results speak against a statistically significant effect of the reunification event itself on the East German SRB. We discuss the relative importance of behavioral and physiological responses to macro-level stressors, a distinction that may help integrate previously mixed findings. published

Countries in Northwestern Europe, including Belgium, report cohort fertility levels of close to two children per woman; whereas Central European countries, such as Germany, have levels of around 1.6 children. In seeking to explain these differences, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to variation in fertility-related social norms. But because these influences are interdependent, it is difficult to isolate their effects on fertility trends. This study attempts to disentangle these two factors by drawing on a quasi-natural experiment. After World War I Germany was compelled to cede the Eupen–Malmedy territory to Belgium. The population of this region has retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies. We examine whether the fertility trends in this German-speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern. Our findings indicate that they generally resemble the Belgian pattern. This suggests that institutional factors are important for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.

In their contributions to the debate on exceptional longevity, several scholars have noted the existence of spatial hot spots, or areas with a high concentration of individuals who have survived to very high ages (e.g. Sardinia in Italy or Okinawa in Japan). However, most of these studies were based on a small number of cases. This study investigates the spatial pattern of exceptional longevity in Germany by place of birth and place of death. We used a large dataset of exceptional longevity that covered all recorded individuals who reached the age of 105 in Germany in the period 1991 to 2002 (N: 1,339). Our research results show that, even in Germany, with its troubled 20th-century past, most of the semi-supercentenarians reached the age of exceptional longevity in the same region in which they were born. The discovery of this highly localised pattern supports the view that an investigation of regional variation in exceptional longevity can produce meaningful results. In our analysis of spatial variation, we were able to detect hot spots of exceptional longevity in Berlin and in north-western Germany. These findings are remarkable, as life expectancy in Germany is currently characterised by a south-north gradient, with the areas of highest life expectancy at birth being located in the south. The observed pattern of exceptional longevity instead reflects the life expectancy at birth pattern in Germany in the early 20th century and to some degree also the current life expectancy at age 80 pattern. Our findings might be interpreted as support to the argument that early and late life conditions might play an important role in explaining spatial variation of exceptional longevity in Germany.

Sub-national trends in fertility are of great importance for policy makers and regional planners. This paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for policy makers, taking into account past and present trends in fertility, as well as their theoretical underpinnings. These will, we argue, be crucial in determining future trajectories and potential political responses to them.The theoretical part of the paper deals with the factors that may influence fertility differences at the sub-national level, including decisions and life course trajectories at the individual level, as well as contextual socio-economic phenomena operating at different geographical levels (local, regional, national, global). This is followed by an empirical section, which takes the Eurostat publications on spatial fertility differences inEuropeas a starting point. In an attempt to overcome the limitations of these reports – both in terms of the lack of geographic detail and the short time span covered – we provide more thorough overviews for Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Using historical data from the Princeton European Fertility Project and other sources, we have been able to reconstruct comparative regional fertility time series for the past 150 years. Finally, we present a case study on local fertility development in the municipalities and unified rural communities of the German state ofLower Saxonyand the districts of the German city ofBremen.Based on the results of this analysis, we conclude that the recent degree of fertility convergence between regions within countries – particularly at the macro-regional level – is, indeed, striking. However, taking a long-term perspective, we are able to identify some substantial time periods over the last 150 years in which regional fertility levels diverged. This implies that the current picture must not necessarily constitute Fukuyama’s “end of history” over the coming decades. Moreover, the study of local-level data reveals that, in contrast to the overall macro-regional fertility convergence process in all three countries, a trend towards divergence can be observed within the city of Bremen. This demonstrates that local divergence can run parallel to overall regional convergence. Räumliche Unterschiede in der subnationalen Fertilitätsentwicklung sind für Politiker und Raumplaner von hoher Relevanz. Ziel dieses Artikels ist es, politischen Entscheidungsträgern ein theoretisches und empirisches Bezugssystem zu vermitteln. Dabei berücksichtigen wir sowohl historische und aktuelle Fertilitätstrends als auch theoretische Erklärungsansätze für die beobachteten Entwicklungen. Ein derartiges Bezugssystem ist unserer Ansicht nach wesentlich, um Aussagen über zukünftige Trends und politische Einflussmöglichkeiten geben zu können.Der theoretische Teil des Artikels beschäftigt sich mit Faktoren, die einen Einfluss auf räumliche Fertilitätsunterschiede haben können. Dies umfasst sowohl Entscheidungen und Entwicklungen in Lebensverläufen auf individueller Ebene als auch kontextuell wirkende sozioökonomische Makrophänomene, die auf unterschiedlichen geografischen Maßstabsebenen operieren können (lokal, regional, national, global). Der anschließende empirische Teil nimmt Bezug auf Eurostat-Veröffentlichungen zu räumlichen Fertilitätsunterschieden in Europa. Die Aussagekraft dieser Eurostat-Analysen ist begrenzt, da es ihnen an geografischem Detail mangelt und nur eine kurze Zeitspanne betrachtet wird. Diese Beschränkungen versuchen wir zu überwinden, indem wir für Österreich, Deutschland und die Schweiz lange Zeitreihen mit möglichst hohem geografischen Detail untersuchen. Hierfür verwenden wir historische Daten aus dem Princeton European Fertility Project und anderen Quellen, die uns erlauben, komparative räumliche Fertilitätszeitreihen für die letzten 150 Jahre zu konstruieren. Darüber hinaus präsentieren wir eine Fallstudie zu lokalen Fertilitätsentwicklungen in den Städten und Samtgemeinden des deutschen Bundeslandes Niedersachsen und den Stadtteilen der deutschen Stadt Bremen.In unserer Analyse kommen wir zu dem Ergebnis, dass die jüngst beobachtete Angleichung subnationaler Fertilitätsunterschiede – insbesondere auf makro-regionaler Ebene – sehr bemerkenswert ist. Allerdings können wir in der Langzeitbetrachtung über die letzten 150 Jahre einige Phasen identifizieren, in denen räumliche Fertilitätsunterschiede eine divergierende Entwicklung nahmen. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass das derzeitige Bild nicht notwendigerweise das Ende der Geschichte (Fukuyamas „end of history“) für die kommenden Jahrzehnte darstellt. Außerdem zeigt die Analyse der Daten auf kleinräumiger Ebene, dass, im Gegensatz zu den in allen drei Staaten beobachteten makro-regionalen Konvergenztrends, innerhalb der Stadt Bremen auf der Ebene der Stadtteile ein divergierender Trend bei den räumlichen Fertilitätsunterschieden zu erkennen ist. Dies demonstriert, dass lokale Divergenztrends parallel zu makro-regionalen Konvergenztrends ablaufen können.

This article investigates the role of states and regions in shaping spatial patterns of nonmarital fertility in Europe since 1960 using a dataset of 497 European subnational regions and smaller countries. Almost all regions registered substantial nonmarital fertility increases over the last 50 years. Prior research has shown that in the first half of the twentieth century states played a dominant role in drawing the demographic map of Europe (Watkins, From provinces into nations: demographic integration in Western Europe 1870–1960. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 1991). As a result, subnational regional variation decreased, while differences between countries increased. In this article, we investigate whether states continue to play such a dominant role in delineating patterns of nonmarital fertility between 1960 and 2007. We find that variation in nonmarital fertility levels increased as a whole across Europe, and states continued to be important for determining these patterns. However, the role of states relative to regions declined in the latest period examined (1990 and 2007). Possible explanations for the changes include increased supranational integration, for example, within the European Union, and decentralisation within states leading to increases in variation in subnational contextual conditions.

Historical Germany represents a perfect laboratory for studying interregional demographic differences, yet the historical family structures in this part of the European continent remain largely unexplored. This study seeks to fill this gap by documenting the variability of living arrangements using an aggregate measure of household complexity based on published statistics of the German census of 1885. We apply descriptive methods and spatially sensitive modelling techniques to this data in order to examine existing hypotheses on the determinants of household complexity in historical Europe. We investigate how regional variation in agricultural structures and employment, inheritance practices, ethnic background, and other socio-demographic characteristics relate to regional variation in household structures. Our results show that areas with low levels of household complexity were concentrated in south-western and southern Germany, while areas with high levels of household complexity were mostly situated in northern and north-eastern Germany. Contrary to our expectations, we found that the supposedly decisive socio-economic and cultural macro-regional differences that are known to have existed in late 19th-century Germany were at most only weakly associated with existing spatial patterns of household complexity. Our results tend to support Ruggles’ (2009) view that spatial variation in household structures is mostly linked to the degree of employment in agriculture and demographic characteristics.

Background: Spatial inequalities in human development are of great concern to international organisations and national governments. Demographic indicators like the infant mortality rate are important measures for determining these inequalities. Using demographic indicators over long time periods at relatively high levels of geographical detail, we can examine the long-term continuities and changes in spatial inequalities. Objective: This paper presents the initial outcomes of a larger project that aims to analyse spatial variation in infant survival across Europe over the last 100 years. In this paper, we focus on spatial disparities in infant survival in 1910. At that time, the longevity revolution was still at an early stage. We look at general spatial variation patterns within and across countries, and discuss some of the challenges related to the comparativeness of the data. Methods: We link official infant mortality data from more than 5,000 European regions and localities for the period around 1910 to a European historical GIS of administrative boundaries. The data are analysed using descriptive spatial analysis techniques. Results: In 1910, a number of countries in northern and western Europe led the longevity revolution in Europe, with the area of low infant mortality also extending into the northwestern parts of the German Empire. Other areas with low infant mortality levels included the Belgian region of Wallonia, most parts of Switzerland, as well as central and south-western France. In eastern and southern Europe, we find significant variation within and across countries, which might stem in part from data quality problems.