Spatial variation in fertility across Europe : patterns and determinants

This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation. Postprint