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The proliferation of variable renewable energy resources that generate electrical power from solar and wind is a critical step in achieving a climate neutral and sustainable energy system. The successful implementation of these electrical power generators is limited due to the uncontrollable nature of their availability to produce electrical power. One method by which to shift this energy production temporally and spatially to the time and place of its demand is the production of hydrogen as a chemical energy carrier. However, this approach would require large-scale infrastructure investments to produce, store, and transport hydrogen gas. One proposed strategy for the storage and transport of hydrogen is to blend with natural gas and inject it into pre-existing natural gas infrastructure. Hydrogen gas blended into natural gas in this way can contribute to the decarbonization of the natural gas system, however it is not as valuable in terms of its economic and carbon reduction potential. This value could be recovered if the separation of high-purity hydrogen gas from a blended gas system is done in an efficient manner. Electrochemical hydrogen separation is a well-established technology for efficient hydrogen separation, which can be accomplished by electrochemical hydrogen pump (EHP) based on a proton conducting membrane (PEM). The EHP works to separate hydrogen by facilitating the electrochemical process of oxidation of hydrogen at an anode and subsequent evolution of hydrogen gas at a cathode, while other gaseous impurities are ideally unable to permeate through the membrane. The goal of this work is to investigate the potential of electrochemical separation as a highly efficient means of separating trace volumetric quantities of hydrogen gas from natural gas by using high-temperature proton exchange membrane (HT-PEM).To investigate the efficacy of this approach, a high temperature proton exchange membrane electrochemical hydrogen pump (HT-PEM EHP) based on phosphoric acid doped polybenzimidazole (PA-PBI) PEM is tested in hydrogen/methane gaseous blends while also testing the impacts of varying phosphoric acid contents in the membrane electrode assembly. Operando X-ray CT testing of the PA-PBI HT-PEM EHP is implemented to investigate the structure of the cell during pump operation under varying acid content and humidification. A two-dimensional cell model of the PBI-PA based HT-PEM EHP is developed and validated with cell testing data as well as with data from X-ray CT measurements. The emphasis of the model is on the electrochemical performance of the cell under mass transport limiting conditions and the influence of varying acid contents in the MEA.HT-PEM EHP based on a quaternary ammonium biphosphate anion ion-pair coordinated with polyphenylene (PA-QAPOH) membrane were investigated experimentally to determine their stability and performance in EHP configuration. The presence of phosphanated polypentafluorostyrene (PWN) and Nafion® ionomeric binders in the electrodes of the ion-pair EHP was found to be critical to the stability of the ion-pair EHP. Ion-pair EHP performance was characterized with respect to cell temperature and relative humidity, and the separation of high purity H2 gas from pipeline natural gas and H2 blends was demonstrated. The suitability of alternative sulfonic acid ionomers in the ion-pair HT-PEM EHP was measured and compared to state of the art HT-PEM EHP based on sol-gel PBI-PA membrane for low concentration hydrogen gas concentration blends in methane and in natural gas.

Climate change mitigation is a multi-faceted problem that requires both technological and behavioral solutions. This dissertation covers three distinct strategic projects for decarbonizing energy systems. The respective strategies are linked by their use of data-informed modeling to represent complex systems.The first project integrates high-resolution geostationary satellite data from the GOES-16 advanced baseline imager (ABI) for cloud identification and solar forecasting models. The current temporal and spatial resolutions of remote sensing imagers offer immense potential for real-time and highly accessible modeling. The work assesses transfer learning fitness among meteorological stations of varying climates and demonstrates the need for strategic placement and investment in ground stations. Because models are not equally portable, meaning origin training matters to performance at the target destination, having ground station data available at more trainable sites is important for a future in which real time geostationary data is regularly fed into solar forecasting models.Project two is the work concerning models for clear sky emissivity and transmissivity. The longwave radiation component in climate balance models underpin determinations of climate forcing and impacts of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere The contributions of this work are the proposed methodology for data preparation and quantification of model sensitivity, the outline of broadband and spectral wideband models for optical depth estimation per atmospheric constituent, and the demonstration of a spectral wideband model use and interpretation.Project three concerns an immediate soft strategy for decarbonization using the University of California as a proving ground. Significant carbon emissions can be avoided by shifting the fall term so that it ends before Thanksgiving week, thus preventing short-term two-way trips. This shift has numerous benefits for health and emission purposes with strong potential for immediate impact. This carbon accounting study contributes to the pathway toward greater sustainability through behavioral change.This body of work addresses challenging problems of climate change mitigation through study of machine learning model applicability, physical parameters of radiative transfer, and non-technological (soft) strategies for decarbonization. Each of these efforts contribute to the larger effort to understand, model, and adapt to abrupt climate change.

With the ongoing significance of overheating calculations in the residential building sector, building codes such as the European Energy Performance of Building Directive (EPBD) are essential for harmonizing the indicators and performance thresholds. This paper investigates Europe's overheating calculation methods, indicators, and thresholds and evaluates their ability to address climate change and heat events. e study aims to identify the suitability of existing overheating calculation methods and propose recommendations for the EPBD. The study results provide a cross-sectional overview of twenty-six European countries. The most influential overheating calculation criteria are listed the best approaches are ranked. The paper provides a thorough comparative assessment and recommendations to align current calculations with climate-sensitive metrics. The results suggest a framework and key performance indicators that are comfort-based, multi-zonal, and time-integrated to calculate overheating and modify the EU's next building energy efficiency regulations. The results can help policymakers and building professionals to develop the next overheating calculation framework and approach for the future development of climate-proof and resilient residential buildings.

The importance of walking, the most basic form of transportation, is growing. Climate change and the associated warmer temperatures could reduce comfortable walking distances drastically. There is a clear need to better understand how outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) and walking interact. In this work, thermoregulation of the human body is modeled with the two-node model to determine the influence of the microclimate on pedestrians’ OTC. First, the impact of the current microclimate in Zurich on the route choice of pedestrians is analyzed. No significant correlation is found between simulated OTC of walking a particular route and route choices for all trips, but results for longer trips indicate a possible influence of OTC. It is pointed out that the same assessment could be done for other regions, and the results could contribute to more accurate pedestrian modeling. Second, a tool is developed that can estimate OTC-corrected walking distances from any location. The tool is applied to the current climate and future climate scenarios. The results show that, in the future, OTC of pedestrians in Zurich will be severely decreased. Further, the tool can detect where there is potential for and, through its accessibility approach, quantify improvements to the built environment citywide. Future work should focus on enhancing physiological input parameters to the model. This work provides a novel use of the two-node model for walking subjects in a citywide assessment., Transportation Research Record, 2677 (3), ISSN:0361-1981, ISSN:2169-4052

While advancement of power generation and grid management technologies has enabled their broader applications, recent changes in climate are projected to impose obstacles to performance and operation of the systems employing these technologies. As more renewables are prioritized over fossil fuels to alleviate changes in climate, the power systems are in need of further research to help meet public and environmental demands by complementing renewable intermittency. In this thesis, the combined-cycle plant technology was modeled in the MATLAB/SIMULINK and verified at two different scales: 1) a 19MW UC Irvine central power plant; 2) a 600MW utility-scale power plant. Three scenarios were generated using the Holistic Grid Resources Integration and Deployment (HiGRID) tool with the renewable penetration percentages set according to the original California Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS): 33%, 50% and 80%. Each scenario presented how various power generating classes contribute to electricity demands for a year-long period. For the scope of this study, load-follower power plant contributions to the general load profile for a week-long period were extracted, normalized and input into the utility model for simulation. The simulation results demonstrated possible consequences from increasing the renewable penetration to the grid. With the increasing penetration, the natural gas combined-cycle power plant needed to operate more dynamically as a load-follower to complement the renewables. The more dynamic operation of the power plant resulted in decrease of its efficiency from 63% to 44% and to 36% and its capacity factor from 75% to 59% and to 34% for the three scenarios, respectively.

The object of the study reported in this paper is to establish a dependence of the fatty acid composition of the fast-growing annual plant safflower on the agroclimatic cultivating conditions. The growth rate of safflower and the characteristics of the extracted oil are highly dependent on external temperature and moisture. At low temperatures, for example, the growth of safflower is significantly inhibited. With an increase in temperature and the length of daylight, the central stem begins to branch while growing faster. Flowering is mainly affected by the length of daylight. The period from the end of flowering to maturity is typically 28‒30days. However, the total ripening period of the crop depends on the variety, location, sowing time, and agro-climatic cultivating conditions. The need for water increases significantly during the flowering period of safflower, which ultimately affects the indicators of the fatty acid composition and yield. At the same time, safflower is sensitive to moisture in terms of disease. In case of excess water, it is subject to root rot. In addition, frequent rains and high humidity after ripening can provoke the germination of seeds on the head. Hence, it follows that in order to obtain a high yield with the specified characteristics of the fatty acid composition of safflower oil, it is necessary to take into consideration the quantitative indicators of moisture and its seasonality, as well as the temperature regime during the growing season. The study was conducted using arid or semi-arid, sharply continental Central Asia with its hot summers and cold winters as an example. The dependence of the physicochemical parameters of plant-derived oils on agroclimatic indicators has been established. The reported results and conclusions will allow farmers to predict the yield of oilseeds with specified characteristics depending on the changing climatic parameters

The increasing complexity of the dynamics captured in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change modelling has made model behaviour less transparent and calibration more extensive. For cellular automata models in particular, this is compounded by the fact that validation is typically performed indirectly, using final simulated change maps; rather than directly considering the probabilistic predictions of transition potential. This study demonstrates that evaluating transition potential predictions provides detail into model behaviour and performance that cannot be obtained from simulated map comparison alone. This is illustrated by modelling LULC transitions in Switzerland using both Logistic Regression and Random Forests. The results emphasize the need for LULC modellers to explicitly consider the performance of individual transition models independently to ensure robust predictions. Additionally, this study highlights the potential for predictor variable selection as a means to improve transition model generalizability and parsimony, which is beneficial for simulating future LULC change.

Conforté par les gouvernements de Donald Trump aux États-Unis ou de Jair Bolsonaro au Brésil, voire à certains égards par celui de Boris Johnson au Royaume-Uni, le climatoscepticisme a connu ces dernières années des heures propices. L’espace politique que lui ont ouvert ces gouvernements confirme ce qui était déjà connu – l’étroite association entre le déni du réchauffement climatique et les idéologies conservatrices (Pottier, 2013) –, tout en invitant à prolonger la réflexion sur les facteur...

The geometry of railway track must be maintained within certain standards in order to provide a highly available network, as well as good ride comfort and safety for all rail users. Modelling is well utilised as part of asset management tools in exploring the effectiveness of different rail geometry maintenance strategies. By considering the rail route as an entire system – in contrast to a track section in isolation – a more effective maintenance strategy can be developed, including the deployment of opportunistic maintenance practice. This study presents a Coloured Petri Net model of railway track degradation, inspection, and maintenance planning and delivery, for an entire route of track sections. Opportunistic maintenance is introduced through a novel search transition function, which groups interventions based on local adjacency. Testing explores the availability and maintenance demands expected when following a series of different management strategies. This is extended to testing under heatwave conditions, a known disrupter to track geometry maintenance delivery. Simulation results show that in following an opportunistic strategy, greater availability can be achieved on the modelled rail line. Further, resilience to the heatwave disruptions can be achieved by selecting the correct maintenance strategy parameters. This asset management tool can provide guidance on management strategies for a full route of track sections as a combined system.

The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on aviation in 2020, and the industry’s future is uncertain. In this paper, we consider scenarios for recovery and ongoing demand, and discuss the implications of these scenarios for aviation emissions-related policy, including the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Using the Aviation Integrated Model (AIM2015), a global aviation systems model, we project how long-term demand, fleet, and emissions projections might change. Depending on recovery scenario, we project cumulative aviation fuel use to 2050 might be up to 9% below that in scenarios not including the pandemic. The majority of this difference arises from reductions in relative global income levels. Around 40% of modeled scenarios project no offset requirement in either the CORSIA pilot or first phases; however, because of its more stringent emissions baseline (based on reductions from year 2004–2006 CO2, rather than constant year-2019 CO2), the EU ETS is likely to be less affected. However, if no new policies are applied and technology developments follow historical trends, year-2050 global net aviation CO2 is still likely to be well above industry goals, including the goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2019, even when the demand effects of the pandemic are accounted for.

The damage of expansion joints is a common problem of bridges, which adversely affects not only driving comfort and safety but also the durability of the structure. Jointless bridges can fundamenta...

Climate risk factors, including wildfire, sea level rise, inland flooding, and extreme heat, as well as gentrification displacement pressures will be primary drivers of migration in the coming years. Travel demand modeling relies on reasonable and appropriate forecasts of demographic totals at the detail of travel analysis zones. Methodologies for developing scenarios in response to individual and combined climate risk factors are described, drawing on work undertaken for the Southern California Association of Governments SoCal Regional Climate Adaptation Framework. Methodologies for developing scenarios in response to gentrification displacement pressures of low-income workers are described, drawing on work carried out for the California Statewide Freight Forecasting and Travel Demand Model. These methodologies leverage modeling tools that are readily available to agencies, allowing for rapid testing of scenarios and integration with other planning processes. Climate adaptation and housing policy, respectively, are currently in need of greater integration and coordination. Future directions are explored to integrate these methodologies and create a combined demographic relocation model, sensitive to both climate risk factors and the affordability and gentrification displacement pressures arising out of shifting demand–supply dynamics and population–job balance in high growth areas.

Climate change and sea-level rise are increasingly leading to higher and prolonged high tides, which, in combination with the growing intensity of rainfall and storm surges, and insufficient drainage infrastructure, result in frequent recurrent flooding in coastal cities. There is a pressing need to understand the occurrence of roadway flooding incidents in order to enact appropriate mitigation measures. Agency data for roadway flooding events are scarce and resource-intensive to collect. Crowdsourced data can provide a low-cost alternative for mapping roadway flood incidents in real time; however, the reliability is questionable. This research demonstrates a framework for asserting trustworthiness on crowdsourced flood incident data in a case study of Norfolk, Virginia. Publicly available (but spatially limited) flood incident data from the city in combination with different environmental and topographical factors are used to create a logistic regression model to predict the probability of roadway flooding at any location on the roadway network. The prediction accuracy of the model was found to be 90.5%. When applying this model to crowdsourced Waze flood incident data, 71.7% of the reports were predicted to be trustworthy. This study demonstrates the potential for using Waze incident report data for roadway flooding detection, providing a framework for cities to identify trustworthy reports in real time to enable rapid situation assessment and mitigation to reduce incident impact.

Overheating in built environments during climate extreme heat events is a major concern to human health, particularly for people vulnerable to prolonged exposure to heat and humidity. However, currently available methods for assessing the risk of overheating lack robust procedures to evaluate the effects of overheating on the comfort and health of vulnerable occupants residing in the various different dwellings. This paper developed a general methodology to define and characterise overheating events and evaluate the risk to reduced comfort and undesirable health effects of building occupants exposed to extreme heat events. Criteria to declare overheating were developed based on heat-related health outcomes related to limits for body dehydration and core temperature of healthy average-age and older adults. The methodology was then applied to a case study of a residential building with typical local construction practice for cold climates and compared with existing methods for assessing risk from exposure to extreme heat events. The results showed that all the methods predicted that highly insulated and airtight buildings are more prone to overheating than older buildings that are less well insulated and airtight. However, only the proposed methodology described in this paper predicted that natural ventilation through opening windows significantly reduced the overheating risk to below the threshold value. Furthermore, multi criteria methods might be difficult to apply in practice in that it is not guaranteed to violate all the criteria to declare a building space is not overheated. The proposed methodology sets the groundwork for establishing a benchmark model from which different overheating metrics can be compared.

The changing climate is affecting many aspects of the built environment. In respect to the wall assemblies of buildings, any change in the moisture load to the wall would influence its long-term moisture performance. Given that Wind-Driven Rain (WDR) is the primary source of the moisture load to the wall and that this load may also change as a result of changes to the climate in the future, it is expected then, that such changes will subsequently affect the moisture performance of wall assemblies. In this study, changes in moisture load of a vinyl-clad and a brick veneer-clad wall assemblies, located in 11 selected Canadian cities, subjected to climate data for two future projected climate scenarios, 2.0 °C (2034–2064) and 3.5 °C (2062–2092), as generated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4), were assessed. Climatic parameters such as, WDR and Driving Rain Wind Pressure (DRWP), as well as their Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves were analyzed and produced to determine boundary conditions for watertightness testing. The two analyzed wall assemblies were thereafter subjected to such tests, and the results of which were used to establish a two-step approach to estimate the moisture loads in these two wall assembly types based on hourly WDR load and hourly DRWP. Moisture loads of each wall assembly type during future projected climate scenarios were compared to those of the historical baseline periods. Increase in moisture load to both wall assembly types were found for most of cities analyzed in this study.

The replacement of the burning of fossil fuels in power plants with other forms of clean energy, for example, that of a tokamak fusion reactor employing the deuterium-tritium cycle, like ITER, woul...

The coastal infrastructures are generally designed for 50 years or more, but often, these structures lose the functionality and need repair or retrofit within its design life. It may be due to the damage or deterioration of the concrete or embedded reinforcement. The structures are usually designed for environmental loads, but the structure is subjected to early deterioration due to the change in climate over the years. In this paper, an attempt is made to understand the effect of climate change in the rapid deterioration of structure using the non-destructive test measurements and well-established models. The study was conducted on a berthing structure located in the backwaters along the west coast of India. The deterioration of coastal structures is mainly of chloride-induced or carbonation. Both these processes depend upon parameters like temperature, relative humidity, CO2 concentration, and rainfall, etc., which in turn, changes with change in the climate. It is found from the study that the effect of climate change is present in the deterioration of the berthing structure. The concentration of chlorides and the carbonation are found to be more than that due to the natural processes of aging.

Climate change significantly affects the hydrologic process and consequently the availability of water resources in a region. In certain regions, it may cause large variations in rainfall with occurrence of extreme rainfall events that result in either floods or droughts. In the rapid climate change scenario, it is therefore pertinent to study regional rainfall trends and corresponding trends of other climatic variables for optimal and sustainable utilization of water resources of a region. The present study focuses on climate variability and its impact on seasonal and annual rainfall trends in the regions of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states, India. Daily rainfall data along with relative humidity, temperature, vapour pressure and wind speed at Anantapur, Arogyavaram and Kurnool located in Rayalaseema region, Kakinada, Machilipatnam and Nellore in Coastal region of Andhra Pradesh state and, Hyderabad, Nizamabad and Ramagundam of Telangana state, collected for the period 1969–2008 from India Meteorological Department (IMD) Pune, were used in the analysis. Trend analysis of seasonal (monsoon and post-monsoon) and annual rainfall and other climatic parameters indicated an increase in rainfall with an increase in relative humidity, vapour pressure and temperature and a decrease in wind speed. An increase in annual rainfall of 7.4 mm/year at Kurnool may be due to increase in relative humidity by 0.093%/year and temperature by 0.016 °C/year . Monsoon and annual rainfall increased by 6.04 mm/year and 4.96 mm/year at Kakinada and Machilipatnam, respectively, due to respective increase in vapour pressure by 0.019 mbar/year and 0.38 mbar/year. Increase in relative humidity by 0.07%/year and vapour pressure by 0.058 mbar/year at Hyderabad of Telangana state showed a significant increase in annual rainfall of 10.92 mm/year. The climate variability at the stations in the regions reported in the present study may be helpful in the assessment of seasonal/annual rainfall in the regions.

The functional and structural performance of pavement infrastructures are at risk from climate change impacts. However, past sustainability assessment studies do not consider how the performance of infrastructure will be affected by a changing climate. The goal of this research is to investigate the impacts of flooding in a unified assessment of the resilience and sustainability of pavement. A case study of concrete pavement was evaluated for scenarios with and without flooding. The AASHTOWare Pavement ME design program was used to simulate the structural performance of typical jointed plain concrete pavement (JPCP) designs for collector roads in Canada. Predicted performance was used in the resilience and sustainability assessment under scenarios with and without flooding. The damage ratio and cost of damage were assessed to quantify the resilience of concrete pavement to floods. Life cycle costs and environmental impacts were compared across a climate change scenario with consideration of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. Results reveal that a typical Ontario JPCP design with structural slab thickness

Anthropogenic climate change is having and will continue to have unpredictable effects on Canadian weather. Trends in average annual temperatures have been rapidly increasing over the last 50 years. The severe climatic variations in Canada are in line with global changes in climate occurring as a result of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Under the current CO2 emission scenarios, scientists predict the climate trends to further intensify in the near future. It is well known that asphalt binder is highly sensitive to climate factors. For this reason, reviewing asphalt binder grade is a vital step, and can help decelerate pavement deterioration. The objective of this study was to assess the change in asphalt binder grade for the future climate and to determine the influence of change in binder grade on the performance of pavements in Canada. To achieve this, the analysis was carried out in five phases. In the first phase, statistically downscaled climate change models were gathered from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium database. In the second phase, the temperature and precipitation data were extracted for the selected locations in southern Canada. In the third phase, the asphalt binder grade was determined for future climate data. In the fourth phase, the pavement materials, traffic, and structural data were collected from the Long-Term Pavement Performance database. Lastly, the pavement performance with the base binder and the upgraded binder were assessed using AASHTOware Mechanistic–Empirical Pavement Design. The results reemphasize the necessity of upgrading the asphalt binder grade in various provinces of Canada.

The damage caused by burning of coal is currently much higher than that produced by using alternative energy sources. This explains the growing urgency to implement the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which, as of November 2020, has already been signed by more than 170 countries. The study analyzes the volumes of coal production by the world's coal market leaders over the period from 2000 to 2019. Despite an overall increase in global coal production by 1.5% in 2019 as compared to 2018, which reached 7.9 billion tons, there was a decrease in coal mining rates by 3.4% and 3.5% against the previous two years. The rapid decline in the importance of coal-fired power plants in the electric power generation of the European Union and Asia who seek to shift to renewable energy sources and hydrogen power, makes further growth in exports of Russian thermal coal quite problematic in the post-crisis period. Most probably, the declining trend in coal production and consumption will continue and even intensify in the coming years. The fall in coal mining and consumption in 2020 alone can reach 25% in the USA, 5–10% in Japan and South Korea, 20% in the EU countries, and 9% in China. The use of hydrogen fuel will make significant changes in the supply not only of the Russian coal, but also of the Russian natural gas and oil. The demand for these commodities will be decreasing.

Aircraft contrails contribute to climate change through global radiative forcing. As part of the general effort aimed at developing reliable decision-making tools, this paper demonstrates the feasibility of implementing a Lagrangian ice microphysical module in a commercial CFD code to characterize the early development of near-field contrails. While engine jets are highly parameterized in most existing models in a way that neglects the nozzle exit-related aspects, our model accounts for the geometric complexity of modern turbofan exhausts. The modeling strategy is based on three-dimensional URANS simulations of an aircraft nozzle exit involving a bypass and a core jet (Eulerian gas phase). Solid soot and ice particles (dispersed phase) are individually tracked using a Lagrangian approach. The implemented microphysical module accounts for the main process of water-vapor condensation on pre-activated soot particles known as heterogeneous condensation. The predictive capabilities of the proposed model are demonstrated through a comprehensive validation set based on the jet-flow dynamics and turbulence statistics in the case of compressible, turbulent coaxial jets. Simulations of contrail formation from a realistic nozzle-exit geometry of the CFM56-3 engine (short-cowl nozzle delivering a dual stream jet with a bypass rate of 5.3) were also carried out in typical cruise flight conditions ensuring contrail formation. The model provides reliable predictions in terms of the plume dilution and ice-particle properties as compared to available in-flight and numerical data. Such a model can then be used to characterize the impact of nozzle-exit parameters on the optical and microphysical properties of near-field contrails.

Due to continuous population expansion and the threat of climate change, the past century has witnessed increasing occurrences of natural hazards, leading to significant global losses and requiring...

Purpose To assess the impacts of climate change on stream flow and evaluation of reservoir performances, reliability, resilience and vulnerability (RRV) indices are contemplated. Precipitation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity and solar radiation are the hydrological and meteorological data which have been used extensively. Climate data like RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for the base period 1976–2005 and future climate scenario for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 as per the convenience. Design/methodology/approach The hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) model was used to simulate the current and future inflow volume into the reservoir. The model performance resulted as 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 0.78 R2 and −3.17 D and during calibration the results obtained were 0.8 NSE, 0.82 R2 and 2.1 D. The projected climate scenario illustrates an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature though a decreasing trend was documented for precipitation. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% without reservoir condition and greater than 50% for other conditions but volumetric reliability and resilience varies between 50% and 100% for all conditions. The vulnerability result of reservoirs may face shortage of flow ranging from 5.7% to 33.8%. Findings Evaluating reservoir simulation and hydropower generation for different climate scenarios by HEC-ResSim model, the energy generated for upper dam ranges from 349.4 MWhr to 331.2 MWhr and 4045.82 MWhr and 3946.74 MWhr for short and long-term future scenario, respectively. RCP for Tmax and Tmin goes on increasing whereas precipitation and inflow to reservoir decreases owing to increase in evapotranspiration. Under diverse climatic conditions power production goes on varying simultaneously. Originality/value This paper is original and all the references are properly cited.

The use of setpoint temperatures based on adaptive thermal comfort models has been identified as an efficient energy saving measure in the latest years. The recent studies applying adaptive setpoint temper atures consider ASHRAE and EN16798-1 international models. However, this study has considered a local Japanese adaptive comfort model instead. Therefore, this study analyses the energy demand resulting from the application of a local Japanese comfort model and compares it with the energy demand resulting from the use of the worldwide ASHRAE Standard 55 adaptive model and other fixed setpoint tempera tures. Building energy simulations have been performed considering all different climate zones in the ter ritory of Japan, and also considering full air-conditioning and mixed-mode building operation modes, as well as present and future scenarios under the influence of climate change, namely Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 for years 2050 and 2100. Results show that energy savings ranging between 29 and 52% and 33 and 78% could be achieved by using setpoint temperatures based on the Japanese local adaptive comfort model respectively in full air-conditioning mode and mixed-mode. These results were obtained using the adaptive model for free running buildings, therefore assuming high levels of adaptation. In the context of climate change, the total energy demand decreases in cold climates between 14 and 65% and 18 and 91% for full air-conditioning mode and mixed mode respectively, while in warm climates, it increases between 8 and 36% and 17 and 51%, again respectively for full air conditioning mode and mixed-mode. Therefore, the use of setpoint temperatures based on the Japanese local adaptive comfort model is identified as a very efficient energy saving strategy, Urban Innovative Actions initia- tive (European Commission) UIA04- 212, Ministry of Science and Innovation, Spain (MICINN) Spanish Government PID2021- 122437OA-I00, Positive Energy Buildings Potential for Climate Change Adaptation and Energy Poverty Mitigation, Andalusian Ministry of Development, Articulation of the Territory and Housing, under the research project, Thematic Network US.22-02, Thematic Networks of the CYTED Program for 2021 722RT0135

Climate changes that occur as a result of global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) released into the atmosphere are an alarming issue. Controlling greenhouse gas emissions is critically important for the current and future status of mining activities. The mining industry is one of the significant contributors of greenhouse gases. In essence, anthropogenic greenhouse gases are emitted directly during the actual mining and indirectly released by the energy-intensive activities associated with mining equipment, ore transport, and the processing industry. Therefore, we reviewed both direct and indirect GHG emissions to analyze how mining contributes to climate change. In addition, we showed how climate change impacts mineral production. This assessment was performed using a GHG inventory model for the gases released from mines undergoing different product life cycles. We also elucidate the key issues and various research outcomes to demonstrate how the mining industry and policymakers can mitigate GHG emission from the mining sector. The review concludes with an overview of GHG release reduction and mitigation strategies.

Indian economy by far is primarily agro-based which in turn depends on the monsoon showers. Seasonal variations in monsoon lead to dry and wet spells. Inadequacy in rainfall for different needs leads to drought, and drought indicators are generally used to describe different drought conditions. In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess meteorological drought in the climate change context in Sone Command, Bihar. Three different statistical downscaling techniques, namely Wavelet decomposed neural network (WNN), feed-forward neural network and support vector machine, are used, and their performance is compared in this study. Rainfall is projected for eight raingauge stations for the period 2015–2045. The model performance is evaluated using different metrics, and the outperformance of WNN is found in projecting the rainfall variability. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is calculated using the best performed model rainfall for future conditions. An attempt has also been made for the spatial drought analysis during the projected period of 2015–2045. It is found that stress on drought is prevalent during November–May for the projected period. The areas covered under different drought zones in the Sone Command ranges from near normal to severely dry. For rain-fed crops, such spatial distribution maps are useful for better crop yield with minimum chances of crop water stress. In addition, the rainfall data are projected for the period 2015–2045 from two selected GCMs: MPI-ESM-MR (for RCP 2.6 scenario) and CMCC-CMS (for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios) using bilinear interpolation method of downscaling. The SPI is calculated for the projected rainfall data, and the results are compared with that of the best performed statistical downscaling model. The results reveal the occurrence of drought of higher severity in the projected period.

The soils in the rainfed region are at the verge of degradation by virtue of several regions. The major reasons which degrade soil quality and deteriorate its productive capacity could be: i) washing away of topsoil and organic matter associated with clay size fractions due to water erosion, ii) intensive deep tillage and inversion tillage with moldboard and disc plough resulting in a) fast decomposition of remnants of crop residues which is catalyzed by high temperature, b) breaking of stable soil aggregates and aggravating the process of oxidation of entrapped organic C and c) disturbance to the habitat of soil microflora and fauna and loss in microbial diversity, iii) less use of fertilizers and widening of plant nutrients removal-use gap , iv) mining and other commercial activities such as use of top soil for other than agricultural purpose, v) mono cropping without following any suitable rotation, vi) nutrient imbalance caused due to disproportionate use of primary, secondary and micronutrients, vii) no or low use of organic manures and poor recycling of farm based crop residues viii) no or low green manuring ix) poor nutrient use efficiency x) indiscriminate use of other agricultural inputs such as herbicides, pesticides, fungicides, etc., , xi) water logging, salinity and alkalinity and acid soils.As a result of several above-mentioned reasons, soils encounter diversity of constraints broadly on account of physical, chemical and biological soil health and ultimately low productivity. Amidst climatic variation and climatic change, there are likelihoods of occurring more degradation of soil resource. Under such situation, conservation agriculture and other resource conservation practices have proved quite effectivein protecting thesoil fromfurther degradation andin restoration of soil quality. This review paper deals withdifferent aspectsof soil quality management through conservation agriculture and other resource conservation techniques.

As the world shapes a global agenda to mitigate climate change, national governments are looking to define sustainable development strategies for the transportation sector. In this international landscape, countries will look to learn from one another, but identifying peer countries for this learning can prove a challenge. In this study, we measure public support for transportation policies and use this as a measure of cultural distance to identify peer countries. We modeled public support for 11 transportation policies in an international sample of 41,932 individuals in 51 countries or regions. Using a model that controls for individual effects, we measure pure country-level differences in public policy support. Measuring public support for different transportation policies can help policymakers understand how the public evaluates and envisions the role of government in shaping the current as well as future transportation system, and to anticipate difficulties of implementing certain types of policy because of public resistance. In general, we find the highest public support for a given policy appears in countries that have not yet seen significant investment in the target infrastructure or service. We show that considering public support for transportation policies gives a different perspective than traditional indicators of economic development or level of motorization, helping policymakers understand what the public wants and how they might build support for new transportation policies. Finally, we present a clustering framework that goes beyond development status and geographical adjacency to help identify peer countries for policy learning using public policy support as a measure of cultural distance.

Four typical cases of storm tide inundation at one of the typical storm surge prone areas in China and worldwide, i.e. Southeast China coast, are presented to demostrate the impact of climate change. It is relied on the statistical trend analysis of tropical cyclone intensification (TCI) and sea level rise (SLR) considering temporally non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effects, numerical analysis taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect and GIS-based analysis for inundation evaluation. The results show that the high sea surface elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries. The maximal sea surface elevations of the worst situation at present without considering TCI and SLR (i.e. scenario S2) are 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Whereas, the maximal sea surface elevations for the three estuaries would increase to 7.02 m, 6.67 m and 6.44 m, respectively, when the non-stationary extreme wind speed of 100-year recurrence period and SLR equivalent to the situation of 2100s (i.e. scenario S4) are taking into account. The potential inundation area of scenario S4 would expand by 108% to about 798 km $$^2$$ compared with scenario S2. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there.

This study develops the Multiobjective Grey Wolf Optimization (MOGWO) algorithm to obtain the optimum rules on the operation of the Golestan Dam in Golestan Province, Iran, under the climate change conditions. The tow objective functions defined in the optimization process include minimizing the vulnerability and maximizing the reliability indices of the model under baseline and climate change conditions periods. Results showed that the river flow would decline by 0.17 percent of the baseline period under climate change conditions in addition to increasing the temperature by 20%, as well as decreasing the rainfall by 21.1%. Moreover, the extent of vulnerability index variations in baseline and climate change conditions was 16–45% and 10–43%, respectively. The range of reliability index variations in baseline and climate change conditions was 47–90% and 27–93%. On the other hand, the vulnerability index has also been measured at 29% and 27% for baseline and climate change conditions, respectively, with 75 percent of reliability. Comparison of the reservoir release rate and water demands for all of the Pareto points indicates a rise in release rates for climate change conditions relative to the baseline one; as the result, the higher adjustment in the reservoir release rates to its demand volumes will be highlighted as the higher dam efficiency in climate change conditions.

The power sector is one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions while also being vulnerable to climate change in its own right. Accordingly, the global power sector needs to accelerate decarbonization. This paper assesses power sector pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). In addition to simulating a net-zero emissions scenario, the paper builds reference and renewable policy scenarios, enabling an analysis of additional measures required beyond the business as usual and current policy trajectories to achieve net-zero emissions. The LEAP simulation results indicate that under the net-zero emissions scenario, ASEAN member states need to swiftly capitalize on their currently underutilized renewable energy potential to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, there will have to be a substantial transformation of the technological portfolio with variable renewable energy and energy storage coming to play central roles. The LEAP simulations also indicate that renewable and energy storage technologies are more cost-competitive than carbon capture and storage for achieving the long-term net-zero emissions goal. In the LEAP modeling, GHG emissions rise until they peak in 2029, then gradually decline until reaching zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the emission abatement cost is 16 USD/ton CO2e in the renewable policy scenario and 12 USD/CO2e in the net-zero emissions scenario.

In the early phases of building design, it is essential to quantify the relevance of passive design measures in order to assure the desired thermal performance of buildings throughout their lifespan. In the present research work, the authors investigated the relevance of the selected passive design measures for heating and cooling energy use of single-family detached buildings at five European locations. To this end, a multiple linear regression analysis was performed, and least-squares estimates were used to identify the most relevant passive design measures under current and three future periods. The statistical analysis showed that the importance of passive design measures would change under the projected global warming effects. In general, the most relevant for the heating energy use of the analysed building models is the opaque envelope U value. Besides effective shading, the most relevant parameter affecting the cooling energy use is the window-to-floor ratio. Furthermore, relevance diagrams for the influence of passive design parameters on the resulting energy use under the climate change scenario and specific U values of the opaque envelope were defined. Building designers and policymakers can use them as design-support tool to find appropriate ways of converting the number of unknowns in future climate into information for designers and decision-makers to assure low vulnerability of the built environment to global warming. Bibliografija: f. 19-21. Abstract. ARRS, SI, Gradbene konstrukcije in gradbena fizika

Design life of offshore structures is in general in the 20- to 30-year range, with some cases going up to 50 years. Fatigue is one of the major design criteria for such structures. Climate change may affect the fatigue life of offshore structures, it would be necessary to update the design procedures to take into account climate change effects on structural performance. This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change in the long-term fatigue life of offshore structures due to wave loading. For this purpose, available environmental conditions for two locations (South East Brazilian Coast and North Atlantic Ocean) generated by the HadGEM-2S global climate model, considering representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 future scenarios and the historical (past) scenarios are considered. The assessment in both locations is performed for two structural models: an idealized stress spectrum for a generic fatigue hot-spot and a steel lazy wave riser (SLWR) connected to a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO). Fatigue life is estimated using the S–N curve approach. Results show that the impact on the fatigue life depends on the structure dynamic characteristics, on the geographic location and mainly on the greenhouse emission scenario. In general, for the Brazilian location, when compared to the historical scenario, most of the future scenarios lead to slightly higher fatigue damages (lower fatigue lives). On the other hand, for the North Atlantic location, there is not a clear trend for future climate change scenarios.

Artificial intelligence can and should help to build a greener, more sustainable world and to deal with climate change. But these opportunities also raise ethical and political issues that need to be addressed if this project is to be successful. For example, the use of AI and the required data centers may involve high energy consumption, vulnerability to climate change and impact of climate measures differ across the globe and raise issues of justice, and when dealing with climate change in a way that influences or governs human behavior, there are trade-offs between effective measures that mitigate climate change and respecting human freedom. AI may also contribute to increasing humanity’s hyper agency in relation to the planet, thus adding to what is known as the problem of the “Anthropocene”. This article outlines and discusses these issues, with a focus on problems concerning freedom and justice at a global level, and calls for responsible use of AI for climate in the light of these challenges.

Since the entry into force of the Paris Agreement in 2015, and with the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the consequences of 1.5 degrees of global warming, the issue of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective manner and within the timeframe outlined has become a matter of urgency. The transport sector, which accounts for a quarter of total GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions in the 28 EU Member States, is no exception. Due to the serious environmental impacts of transport, new mobility concepts are being implemented at both national and international levels. One of these is the large-scale deployment of electric vehicles, including those powered exclusively by Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) batteries. They are quiet and virtually emission-free and, in terms of safety, have the feature that, in the event of an accident, they reduce the risk of detonating the vehicle and of burning or burning out the passengers. This article presents the current state of electromobility in Poland and Slovakia with an indication of light electric cars BEV and the most important factors stimulating its development.

Lake Śniardwy is the largest among more than 7000 Polish lakes. So far, it has not been a subject of detailed investigations concerning long-term changes in water temperature or ice regime. A considerable change in thermal and ice conditions has been observed in the period 1972–2019. Mean annual water temperature increased by 0.44°C dec−1 on average, and was higher than an increase in air temperature (0.33°C dec−1). In the monthly cycle, the most dynamic changes occurred in April (0.77°C dec−1). In the case of ice cover, it appeared increasingly later (5.3 days dec−1), and disappeared earlier (3.0 days dec−1). The thickness of ice cover also decreased (2.4 cm dec−1). Statistical analysis by means of a Pettitt test showed that the critical moment for the transformations of the thermal and ice regime was the end of the 1980’s. In addition to the obvious relations with air temperature for both characteristics, it was evidenced that the occurrence of ice cover depended on wind speed and snow cover. The recorded changes in the case of Lake Śniardwy are considered unfavourable, and their consequences will affect the course of physical, chemical, and biological processes in the largest lake in Poland.

The European climate and energy framework for 2030 is highlighting the reduction of man-made CO2 by increasing the use of renewable energy to mitigate climate change. In this spirit, Germany has decided to erase the coal use as an energy source by 2038 completely. Inevitably, this strategy promises a feasible, responsible, and sustainable post-mining management, because 200 years of coal mining have created numerous challenges necessary to tend to once the mining ends. Thus, the Research Institute for Post-Mining (FZN) at the TH Georg Agricola University in Bochum, Germany, has developed a holistic approach to meet these post-mining challenges including further expertise present at our university. Here, the four strategic research pillars are (1) technical geoecology and hydrogeology to avoid and mitigate risks underground, (2) geomonitoring to evaluate and protect the surface, (3) industrial heritage preservation and engineering to secure and reuse brownfields such as mine sites, and (4) economic transformation planning of mining regions to enable a prosper future for generations to come. In all efforts, we aim to achieve the fundamental goals of the UN to deal with the resources of our planet responsibly and sustainably. Furthermore, we are synergizing increasingly with national and international networks in the interest of social, economic, and environmental stakeholders.

The ocean plays a major role in climate change, and its impact has an extreme effect on the process of coastal and other activities around the globe. The comprehensive analysis of long-term wave climate is carried out at selected locations in the western Bay of Bengal (BoB), by observing the distribution of significant wave height (SWH) using monthly averaged satellite and WAM model for 20 years (1996–2015). The data used in this study were compared with two in situ buoy observations obtained from the National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT), Chennai, India. The satellite and wave model (WAM) data show a good correlation with both in situ buoy observations. The probability distribution functions indicated a significant increase in the higher range of SWH during the recent decade. The analysis of 20-year SWH indicates a positive trend with significant annual and semiannual periodicities. The northwestern bay depicts higher energy in the annual cycle, whereas the southwestern bay exhibits equal contributions from annual and semiannual cycles. The study also reveals that the increasing trends in local SWH in the western BOB are modified due to the number of tropical cyclones as well as the migrating swells generated in the southern Indian Ocean.

Recently, the number of natural disasters caused by climate change on Earth has been growing in the world. To develop measures to protect hardware resources from the effects of natural disasters, the project method was used. The method developed in accordance with its provisions includes the phased collection of information on the impact of natural disasters on resources, their analysis and the development of appropriate countermeasures.The actions and manifestations of the damaging factors that were not included in the families of the corresponding damaging factors of the list "The nature of the actions and manifestations of the damaging factors of natural emergencies", but whose action is caused by certain sources of potential emergencies and affects the performance of the hardware, are revealed. A matrix of the nature of the effects and manifestations of the damaging factors of natural emergencies has been developed.Based on the Classifier of Emergency Situations of Ukraine, a Register of natural threats to the telecommunication network hardware has been built. New sources of threats have been discovered (13 items). The global warming process has amplified the harmful effects of known dangers and identified a number of new ones that are proposed to be classified. The “catalyst” of dangers can be anthropogenic impact, which is distinguished by the promotion of climate change, the artificial modification of the environment.The variability of the environment does not allow to present a complete list of detailed systematized threats, actions and manifestations of damaging factors and their compliance with certain threats. The list of known protective actions includes organizational measures and countermeasures. According to existing experience, the network hardware resources must comply with the principle of redundancy, in which the operational reconfiguration is performed. It is proposed to apply redundancy of communication lines by means of three-level multiplexing with mutually independent levels, Последнее время в мире растет число катастроф естественного характера, обусловленных изменением климата на Земле. Для разработки мероприятий по защите аппаратных ресурсов от последствий воздействия стихийных бедствий использован метод проектов. Разработанный согласно его положениям метод включает поэтапный сбор сведений о воздействии стихийных бедствий на ресурсы, их анализ и выработку соответствующих противодействий.Выявлены действия и проявления поражающих факторов, которые не вошли в семейств соответствующих поражающих факторов перечня "Характер действий и проявлений поражающих факторов естественных ЧС", но действие которых вызывается определенными источниками потенциальных НС и сказывается на работоспособности аппаратных средств. Разработана матрица характера воздействий и проявлений поражающих факторов естественных ЧС.На основе Классификатора чрезвычайных ситуаций Украины построен Реестр естественных угроз аппаратным средствам телекоммуникационной сети. Обнаружены новые источники НС, представляющие угрозы (13 позиций). Процесс глобального потепления усилил вредное воздействие известных опасностей и определил ряд новых, которые предлагается классифицировать. "Катализатором" опасностей может стать антропогенное влияние, которое отличают содействие изменениям климата, искусственная модификация среды.Изменчивость среды не позволяет представить полный перечень детально систематизированных угроз, действий и проявлений поражающих факторов и соответствие их определенным угрозам. Перечень известных защитных действий включает организационные мероприятия и меры противодействия. Согласно существующему опыту, аппаратные ресурсы сети должны соответствовать принципу избыточности, при котором выполняется оперативная реконфигурация. Предлагается применять резервирование линий связи путем трехуровневого мультиплексирования с взаимонезависимыми между собой уровнями, Останнім часом у всьому світі зростає кількість катастроф природного характеру, які обумовлені зміною клімату на Землі. Для розробки заходів щодо захисту апаратних ресурсів від наслідків дії стихійних лих використано метод проєктів. Опрацьований згідно його положень метод включає поетапний збір відомостей щодо дії стихійних лих на апаратні ресурси телекомунікаційної мережі, їх аналіз і розробку відповідних протидій.Виявлені дії і прояви вражаючих факторів, які не увійшли до сімейств відповідних вражаючих факторів переліку "Характер дій і проявів вражаючих факторів природних НС", але дія яких викликається визначеними джерелами потенційних НС і позначається на працездатності апаратних засобів. Розроблена матриця характеру дій і проявів вражаючих факторів природних НС.На основі Класифікатора надзвичайних ситуацій України побудовано Реєстр природних загроз апаратним засобам телекомунікаційної мережі. Виявлені нові джерела НС, які становлять загрози апаратним засобам (13 позицій). Процес глобального потепління посилив шкідливу дію відомих небезпек і визначив низку нових, які пропонується класифікувати. "Каталізатором" небезпек може стати антропогенний вплив, який відрізняють сприяння змінам клімату, штучна модифікація середовища.Мінливість природно-антропогенного середовища не дозволяє представити повністю обгрунтовані, детально систематизовані природні загрози, дії і прояви вражаючих факторів та відповідність їх визначеним загрозам. Перелік відомих захисних дій включає організаційні заходи і заходи протидії виявленим загрозам. Відповідно до існуючого досвіду, апаратні ресурси телекомунікаційної мережі мають відповідати принципу надмірності, за якого виконується оперативна реконфігурація. Пропонується застосовувати резервування ліній зв’язку шляхом трирівневого мультиплексування із взаємонезалежними між собою рівнями мультиплексування

The paper introduces the Special Section on the Hydrology of the Carpathians in this issue. It is the result of an initiative of the Department of Land and Water Resources Management of the Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, the Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management of the TU Vienna and the Institute of Geomatics and Civil Engineering of the University of Sopron to allow young hydrologists in the Carpathian Basin (and from outside) to present their research and re-network on the emerging topics of the hydrology of the Carpathians at the HydroCarpath Conferences since 2012.