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The evolutionary dynamics of tree species are influenced by their specific climatic environments, and their ability to persist is determined by adaptive strategies such as broad climate tolerance, phenotypic plasticity or genetic differentiation. Biogeographical predictions indicate that populations located at the edges of their ranges are more likely to experience heightened vulnerability to climatic fluctuations due to approaching tolerance limits. However, if local phenotypic acclimation or genetic adaptation has taken place, trees near the edge of their range could demonstrate comparable sensitivity to freeze and drought as the rest of the sampled population. Nevertheless, there remains uncertainty regarding the extent of developmental and evolutionary adjustments in climate sensitivity across the entire ranges of many tree species.Here, we document the biogeography of tree growth sensitivity to freeze and soil water and vapour pressure deficits during 1950–2018 using an extensive multi‐species tree‐ring dataset of 35,784 trees at 4535 sites covering boreal, temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests of Canada. We quantify the relationships between tree radial growth increment and seasonal climate variables and explore factors driving the observed patterns of annual growth and climate sensitivity such as species, regional climate and local site conditions, and tree age and size.Freeze and drought had widespread impacts on tree growth that were contingent on the presence of focal species in interaction with tree size. An indirect growth thermal limitation towards cold/wet edges, occurring through the site moisture conditions, was observed in seven widespread species (e.g. Picea glauca, Picea mariana and Larix laricina). Moreover, six species had negative drought impacts more strongly expressed towards their warm/dry edges (e.g. Abies balsamea, Betula papyrifera and Pseudotsuga menziesii). However, widespread Picea, Pinus and Populus species showed no indication of increased sensitivity to soil water conditions at these edges.Synthesis. Our findings support the idea of evolutionary or acclimatization adjustments in the development of populations in response to long‐term climate conditions experienced in their respective locations. This underscores the importance of incorporating phenotypic and genomic data into future analyses of climate change impacts, which would enhance our ability to predict potential ecological shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detailed knowledge of groundwater storage improves the understanding and management of water resources. Observations from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have provided data on global terrestrial-water-storage (TWS) changes since 2002. Combining GRACE-TWS and land-surface model (LSM) estimates of soil water, snow-water equivalent and surface-water storage provides a method to quantify groundwater storage (Wground). This study examines the Wground seasonal variations and trends for Canada's landmass during the period 2003–2016 using GRACE-TWS and the Canadian LSM EALCO (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) model. The results show the study region has a maximum seasonal variation (ΔWground) of 118 mm (volume equivalent 700 km3), with the maximum/minimum Wground appearing in July/April. Eastern Canada has relatively large ΔWground values, up to 400 mm in Newfoundland. The Prairie region has the smallest value (<50 mm). The western and central regions show the maximum/minimum Wground mostly in spring/fall. In contrast, eastern Canada has the maximum/minimum Wground mostly in fall/spring. South Ontario and the Prairie area show the maximum/minimum Wground in summer/winter. Additionally, the Wground trends over the 14-year study period present large spatial variability, with increasing trends of up to 10 mm/year in eastern Canada and decreasing trends (similar magnitudes) in the west. The increasing trend largely offsets the decreasing trend in the study area, and the overall Wground for the region does not show a significant trend during 2003–2016. Comparison of Wground with groundwater well measurements present similar long-term trends but with a phase difference in seasonal variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent widespread expansion of deciduous shrubs across much of the Arctic has been largely attributed to climate warming. This study investigated decadal growth rates of dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa) across a low Arctic landscape in the continental interior of Canada. Detailed birch cover (100 m2 replicate plots) and individual shrub stature measurement datasets for five representative habitat-types were compared between 2006 and 2016, and evaluated in relation to environmental characteristics. Furthermore, dendrochronologically-based annual growth rates were assessed in relation to the 20-year climate record. Birch height, lateral dimensions, and patch groundcover all increased 20–25% relative to 2006 values, but these increases were similar among the habitat-types. Together, the limited evidence of recent warming at this site, the absence of significant habitat-type growth rate differences, and the lack of correlation between annual climate and stem secondary growth strongly suggest that climate change was not the principal cause. Instead, we propose that release from caribou impacts following the recent severe herd decline may explain the net shrub growth. Individual shrub growth rates were correlated with soil nutrient availability, but the latter was highly variable, suggesting that growth rates are primarily determined by fine-scale rather than habitat-scale spatial heterogeneity in nutrient supply. Together, our results demonstrate that birch growth has been enhanced across a variety of habitat-types in the Daring Lake landscape over the decade since 2006, and suggest that the recent severe caribou herd declines may be at least as significant as climate warming in driving birch shrub expansion in the Canadian central low Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO2) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010–2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO2 uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO2 balance. Eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO2 exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO2 exchange in the fall. The net CO2 exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO2 exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon–climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO2 dynamics in the northern high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At high population size, migratory caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are regulated by forage abundance in their summer range. Climate warming likely affects forage availability by increasing productivity and advancing phenology of vegetation. Our objective was to investigate the combined effects of browsing and climate warming on the availability of dwarf birch (Betula glandulosa). We simulated direct (warming, with open-top chambers) and indirect (increased nutrient cycling) effects of climate warming in interaction with simulated browsing (leaf stripping) from 2009 to 2013 in Nunavik, Canada. We measured the effect of treatments on dwarf birch biomass and phenology. Moderate and heavy browsing reduced the estimated biomass of birch leaves by 14% and 34%, respectively. Fertilization did not increase the biomass of birch leaves, but increased the biomass of another forage, Poaceae. The warming treatment advanced the opening of birch leaves by 4 days (95% CI: [3, 6]) in 2011 and 7 [5, 8] days in 2013, the two years colder than average. The absence of significant phenological shifts in warmed plots during warmer springs suggests that established dwarf birches may have reached a threshold in a limiting resource, likely soil moisture, under which they cannot respond to further warming. Our results demonstrate that browsing can reduce forage biomass, but the variability in caribou populations could provide windows of opportunity for shrub growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on agricultural systems is a major concern as it can have a significant effect on the world food supply. The objective of this study was to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production and nitrate leaching in two distinct climatic zones in Canada. Spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) was selected for the semiarid regions of Western Canada (Swift Current, SK) and maize (Zea mays L.) was chosen for the more humid regions of central Canada (Woodslee, ON). Climate scenarios were based upon simulations from a Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and crop simulations were conducted using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. Compared to the baseline climate scenario, wheat yields increased by 8, 8, 11, 15%, whereas maize yields decreased by 15, 25, 22, 41% under RCP4.5 2050s (2041–2070), RCP4.5 2080s (2071–2100), RCP8.5 2050s and RCP8.5 2080s scenarios, respectively. Annual nitrate leaching increased by 19, 57, 73, 129% at Swift Current and by 84, 117, 208, 317% at Woodslee under the four scenarios, respectively. Adaptation measures suggested that fertilizer N rate for spring wheat should be increased to 80–100 kg N ha-1 to obtain optimal yields although this will result in an additional risk of 5–8 kg N ha-1 nitrate leaching at Swift Current. The fertilizer N rate of 150 kg N ha-1 was found to be suitable for high maize yields at Woodslee. New wheat and maize cultivars with long growing seasons would enable crop growth to match the phenological stage and hence maintain high crop yields to adapt to increased temperatures in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address certain limitations with their current operational model, Environment and Climate Change Canada recently developed the Soil, Vegetation, and Snow (SVS) land surface model and the representation of subsurface hydrological processes was targeted as an area for improvement. The objective of this study is to evaluate the ability of HydroSVS, the component of SVS responsible for the vertical redistribution of water, to simulate soil moisture under snow-free conditions when using flux-tower observations of evapotranspiration as forcing data. We assessed (1) model fidelity by comparing soil moisture modelled with HydroSVS to point-scale measurements of volumetric soil water content and (2) model complexity by comparing the performance of HydroSVS to that of HydroGeoSphere, a state-of-the-art integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic model. To do this, we performed one-dimensional soil column simulations at four sites of the AmeriFlux network. Results indicate that under Mediterranean and temperate climates, HydroSVS satisfactorily simulated soil moisture (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between 0.26 and 0.70; R 2  ≥ 0.80), with a performance comparable to HydroGeoSphere (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ≥0.60; R 2  ≥ 0.80). However, HydroSVS performed weakly under a semiarid climate while HydroGeoSphere performed relatively well. By decoupling the magnitude and sourcing of evapotranspiration, this study proposes a powerful diagnostic tool to evaluate the representation of subsurface hydrological processes in land surface models. Overall, this study highlights the potential of SVS for hydrological applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linkages between the terrestrial ecosystem and precipitation play a critical role in regulating regional weather and climate. These linkages can manifest themselves as positive or negative feedback loops, which may either favor or inhibit the triggering and intensity of thunderstorms. Although the Canadian Prairies terrestrial system has been identified as having the potential to exert a detectable influence on convective precipitation during the warm season, little work has been done in this area using in situ observations. The authors present findings from a novel study designed to explore linkages between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and lightning duration (DUR) from the Canadian Lightning Detection Network for 38 census agricultural regions (CARs) on the Canadian Prairies. Statistics Canada divides the prairie agricultural zone into CARs (polygons of varying size and shape) for the purpose of calculating agricultural statistics. Here, DUR is used as a proxy for thunderstorm activity. Statistical analyses were undertaken for 38 CARs for summers [June--August (JJA)] between 1999 and 2008. Specifically, coefficients of determination were calculated between pairs of standardized anomalies of DUR and NDVI by season and by month. Correlations were also calculated for CARs grouped by size and/or magnitude of the NDVI anomalies. The main findings are as follows: 1) JJA lightning activity is overwhelmingly below average within larger dry areas (i.e., areas with below-average NDVI); that is, the linkages between NDVI and DUR increased significantly as both the area and magnitude of the dry anomaly increased. 2) In contrast, CARs with above-average NDVI did not consistently experience above-average lightning activity, regardless of the CAR size. 3) The lower threshold for the length scale of the dry anomalies required to affect the boundary layer sufficiently to reduce lightning activity was found to be approximately 150 km (~18 000 km2). 4) The authors'' analysis suggests that the surface-convection feedback appears to be a real phenomenon, in which drought tends to perpetuate drought with respect to convective storms and associated rainfall, within the limits found in 1) and 3). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Soil water content strongly affects permafrost dynamics by changing the soil thermal properties. However, the movement of liquid water, which plays an important role in the heat transport of temperate soils, has been under-represented in boreal studies. Two different heat transport models with and without convective heat transport were compared to measurements of soil temperatures in four boreal sites with different stand ages and drainage classes. Overall, soil temperatures during the growing season tended to be over-estimated by 2–4°C when movement of liquid water and water vapor was not represented in the model. The role of heat transport in water has broad implications for site responses to warming and suggests reduced vulnerability of permafrost to thaw at drier sites. This result is consistent with field observations of faster thaw in response to warming in wet sites compared to drier sites over the past 30years in Canadian boreal forests. These results highlight that representation of water flow in heat transport models is important to simulate future soil thermal or permafrost dynamics under a changing climate. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Phenology is central to understanding vegetation response to climate change, as well as vegetation effects on plant resources, but most temporal production data is based on shoots, especially those of trees. In contrast, most production in temperate and colder regions is belowground, and is frequently dominated by grasses. We report root and shoot phenology in 7-year old monocultures of 10 dominant species (five woody species, five grasses) in southern Canada. Woody shoot production was greatest about 8 weeks before the peak of root production, whereas grass shoot maxima preceded root maxima by 2–4 weeks. Over the growing season, woody root, and grass root and shoot production increased significantly with soil temperature. In contrast, the timing of woody shoot production was not related to soil temperature ( r=0.01). The duration of root production was significantly greater than that of shoot production (grasses: 22%, woody species: 54%). Woody species produced cooler and moister soils than grasses, but growth forms did not affect seasonal patterns of soil conditions. Although woody shoots are the current benchmark for phenology studies, the other three components examined here (woody plant roots, grass shoots and roots) differed greatly in peak production time, as well as production duration. These results highlight that shoot and root phenology is not coincident, and further, that major plant growth forms differ in their timing of above- and belowground production. Thus, considering total plant phenology instead of only tree shoot phenology should provide a better understanding of ecosystem response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is expected to differentially affect CO2 exchange of the diverse ecosystems in the Arctic. Quantifying responses of CO2 exchange to warming in these ecosystems will require coordinated experimentation using standard temperature manipulations and measurements. Here, we used the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX) standard warming treatment to determine CO2 flux responses to growing-season warming for ecosystems spanning natural temperature and moisture ranges across the Arctic biome. We used the four North American Arctic ITEX sites (Toolik Lake, Atqasuk, and Barrow [USA] and Alexandra Fiord [Canada]) that span 10° of latitude. At each site, we investigated the CO2 responses to warming in both dry and wet or moist ecosystems. Net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), ecosystem respiration (ER), and gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) were assessed using chamber techniques conducted over 24-h periods sampled regularly throughout the summers of two years at all sites. At Toolik Lake, warming increased net CO2 losses in both moist and dry ecosystems. In contrast, at Atqasuk and Barrow, warming increased net CO2 uptake in wet ecosystems but increased losses from dry ecosystems. At Alexandra Fiord, warming improved net carbon uptake in the moist ecosystem in both years, but in the wet and dry ecosystems uptake increased in one year and decreased the other. Warming generally increased ER, with the largest increases in dry ecosystems. In wet ecosystems, high soil moisture limited increases in respiration relative to increases in photosynthesis. Warming generally increased GEP, with the notable exception of the Toolik Lake moist ecosystem, where warming unexpectedly decreased GEP > 25%. Overall, the respiration response determined the effect of warming on ecosystem CO2 balance. Our results provide the first multiple-site comparison of arctic tundra CO2 flux responses to standard warming treatments across a large climate gradient. These results indicate that (1) dry tundra may be initially the most responsive ecosystems to climate warming by virtue of strong increases in ER, (2) moist and wet tundra responses are dampened by higher water tables and soil water contents, and (3) both GEP and ER are responsive to climate warming, but the magnitudes and directions are ecosystem-dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2001–03, continuous eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux were made above mature boreal aspen, black spruce, and jack pine forests in Saskatchewan, Canada, prior to and during a 3−year drought. During the 1st drought year, ecosystem respiration ( R) was reduced at the aspen site due to the drying of surface soil layers. Gross ecosystem photosynthesis (GEP) increased as a result of a warm spring and a slow decrease of deep soil moisture. These conditions resulted in the highest annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in the 9 years of flux measurements at this site. During 2002 and 2003, a reduction of 6% and 34% in NEP, respectively, compared to 2000 was observed as the result of reductions in both R and GEP, indicating a conservative response to the drought. Although the drought affected most of western Canada, there was considerable spatial variability in summer rainfall over the 100−km extent of the study area; summer rainfalls in 2001 and 2002 at the two conifer sites minimized the impact of the drought. In 2003, however, precipitation was similarly low at all three sites. Due to low topographic position and consequent poor drainage at the black spruce site and the coarse soil with low water-holding capacity at the jack pine site almost no reduction in R, GEP, and NEP was observed at these two sites. This study shows that the impact of drought on carbon sequestration by boreal forest ecosystems strongly depends on rainfall distribution, soil characteristics, topography, and the presence of vegetation that is well adapted to these conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies in tundra ecology provide evidence for sensitivity of the vegetation-soil complex to climate. Short-term experiments (≤10 yr) suggest that climate change may have a decade-scale effect on soil moisture, decomposition and nutrient availability, plant phenology, and plant growth. In contrast, there exists little evidence to confirm or refute the role of climate in structuring tundra vegetation over longer time scales (10 to 1000 yr). This study accordingly examines ∼1500 yr in the stratigraphy of two permafrost sediment cores from a High Arctic, polygon-patterned, graminoid-moss tundra. Present-day bryophyte-environment relationships are quantified, and the radiocarbon-dated macrofossil record of bryophytes is used to reconstruct past changes in soil moisture. The paleoecological record is characterized by pronounced variability during polygon development. As the hydrology of tundra polygons is controlled by known climatic and geomorphologic mechanisms, the recurrent development of polygon vegetation (cf. hydrologic change) is compared to an independent paleoclimatic proxy for net radiation (Rn). Based on this comparison, the vegetation provides support for a pronounced shift to colder and wetter conditions during the Little Ice Age (∼ 300-465 yr BP), though the long-term response to past climate change is otherwise equivocal. We suggest accordingly that autogenic geomorphologic-vegetation processes may have been generally more important than climate in the long-term development of the polygon-patterned wetland examined. A framework for such processes is presented. We caution that previous research to simulate and describe the effects of climate warming might not have properly accounted for the dynamic role of geomorphology in regulating tundra microclimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We measured net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2) (NEE) during wet and dry summers (2000 and 2001) across a range of plant communities at Mer Bleue, a large peatland near Ottawa, southern Ontario, Canada. Wetland types included ombrotrophic bog hummocks and hollows, mineral-poor fen, and beaver pond margins. NEE was significantly different among the sites in both years, but rates of gross photosynthesis did not vary spatially even though species composition at the sites was variable. Soil respiration rates were very different across sites and dominated interannual variability in summer NEE within sites. During the dry summer of 2001, net CO2 uptake was significantly smaller, and most locations switched from a net sink to a source of CO2 under a range of levels of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). The wetter areas—poor fen and beaver pond margin—had the largest rates of CO2 uptake and smallest rates of respiratory loss during the dry summer. Communities dominated by ericaceous shrubs (bog sites) maintained similar rates of gross photosynthesis between years; by contrast, the sedge-dominated areas (fen sites) showed signs of early senescence under drought conditions. Water table position was the strongest control on respiration in the drier summer, whereas surface peat temperature explained most of the variability in the wetter summer. Q 10 temperature-respiration quotients averaged 1.6 to 2.2. The ratio between maximum photosynthesis and respiration ranged from 3.7:1 in the poor fen to 1.2:1 at some bog sites; it declined at all sites in the drier summer owing to greater respiration rates relative to photosynthesis in evergreen shrub sites and a change in both processes in sedge sites. Our ability to predict ecosystem responses to changing climate depends on a more complete understanding of the factors that control NEE across a range of peatland plant communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture is a critical indicator for climate change and agricultural drought, but its measurement is challenging due to large variability with land cover, soil type, time, space and depth. Satellite estimates of soil moisture are highly desirable and have become more widely available over the past decade. This study investigates and compares the performance of four surface soil moisture satellite datasets over Canada, namely, Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity Level 3 (SMOS L3), versions 3.3 and 4.2 of European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) soil moisture product and a recent product called SMOS-INRA-CESBIO (SMOS-IC) that contains corrections designed to reduce several known sources of uncertainty in SMOS L3. These datasets were evaluated against in situ networks located in mostly agricultural regions of Canada for the period 2012 to 2014. Two statistical comparison methods were used, namely, metrics for mean soil moisture and median of metrics. The results suggest that, while both methods show similar comparisons for regional networks, over large networks, the median of metrics method is more representative of the overall correlation and variability and is therefore a more appropriate method for evaluating the performance of satellite products. Overall, the SMOS products have higher daily temporal correlations, but larger biases, against in situ soil moisture than the ESA CCI products, with SMOS-IC having higher correlations and smaller variability than SMOS L3. The SMOS products capture daily wetting and drying events better than the ESA CCI products, with the SMOS products capturing at least 75% of observed drying as compared to 55% for the ESA CCI products. Overall, for periods during which there are sufficient observations, both SMOS products are more suitable for agricultural applications over Canada than the ESA CCI products, even though SMOS-IC is able to capture soil moisture variability more accurately than SMOS L3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]