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California's Cap-and-Trade Program, established in January 2013, sets a limit on the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions and allows a portion of excess emissions to be offset through purchase of credits for climate benefits accrued elsewhere. Reflecting the critical role of forests in climate regulation, the majority of these offsets are related to Improved Forest Management (IFM) following the U.S. Forest Project Protocol- the first legally enforceable offset program for existing forests. Soberingly, however, Badgley et al. (2021) show that this program has resulted in widespread over-crediting, the issuance of credits in excess of actual climate benefits, to the tune of 30 million t CO2 -eq, or 29.4% of the credits analyzed, valued at ~US$410 million. This stemmed from the use of coarse, regional averages of forest carbon (C) stocks in the calculation of project baselines (Fig. 1). Reliance on regional average C stocks is a core element of several commonly used forest C offsetting methodologies, implying that the type of problem identified by Badgley et al. could be more widespread. This should serve as a call to action for scientists and policymakers to create a robust framework for forest C offset accounting, based on the most current scientific information, that delivers real, verifiable climate benefit, and which is flexible enough to adapt as scientific data improves.

The objective of this transport component of the broader Africa Climate Business Plan (ACBP) is to begin to mainstream climate benefits into the World Bank’s transport program for Sub-Saharan Africa, the better to assist African countries in bringing their climate change efforts to scale. It is a first step towards mainstreaming responses to the climate challenge into transport programs in Africa, and it represents the first time the Transport & ICT GP has produced a work plan for its investment and technical assistance operations that takes into account the content of countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and attempts to align World Bank support to the goals stated therein. The transport work plan under this Africa Climate Business Plan will consist of up to $3.2 billion in investments and technical assistance over the 2016-2020 period – including $2.8 billion in World Bank funds. Those investments will help to make progress on two strategic objectives: (1) improving the resilience of African transport infrastructure to climate change by defining four pillars of resilient transport; and (2) improving the carbon-efficiency of transport systems in Sub-Saharan Africa.

In support of the Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program of Romania (LCGGP), the World Bank has prepared the current report with the aim of helping the Romanian Government to operationalize the strategic path chosen by the country for implementing its National Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Strategy 2016-20302 (NSCC) and the associated 2016-2020 Action Plan for Climate Change (APCC). This includes some relevant institutional arrangements and Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) activities for existing Climate Change (CC) related policies and measures, notably those derived from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, plus the requirements for European Union (EU) Member States regarding the monitoring and evaluation of the EU-level climate and energy package and the Europe 2020 goals for a smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. It was recommended that the Romanian government should build upon current obligations for M&E of public policies, whilst recognizing that the M&E system initially established for the NSCC and APCC for Romania must not be considered as static, but rather as an on-going continuum that will evolve, expand and improve over time. The report highlights some key weaknesses in institutional capacity for CC-related M&E and identifies several sector-specific examples of areas for improvement. The report usefully reviews international good practices for the M&E of CC strategies and action plans under the headings of General good practice; Green Growth good practices; Special considerations for CC adaptation (including the selection of indicators), and; European examples (including short case studies on relevant M&E practices from Germany and France). In order to facilitate the necessary learning processes for policy-makers and other key stakeholders it is recommended that the Romanian government adopts a “theory-based” approach (in conjunction with the OECD DAC criteria) as the evaluation framework for the NSCC and APCC. The theory-based approach follows an iterative process of design, evaluation, and redesign based on lessons learned about whether specific interventions are successful or not, why they succeeded or failed and how they can be improved. The report concludes with numerous additional practical recommendations for development of a simple, affordable and cost effective M&E system for the NSCC and APCC. These recommendations are grouped into four categories: (i) general recommendations; (ii) recommendations for improving institutional arrangements; (iii) recommendations for developing a solid evaluation framework; and (iv) recommendations for reporting. Finally, to ensure a robust framework, the M&E and Reporting system should clearly define goals, indicators, responsibilities and communication strategies. It should facilitate continuous learning by policy-makers and other key stakeholders in order to underpin the long-term development of the knowledge and understanding needed to better design, implement and deliver future CC strategies and action plans for Romania.

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.

This paper informs the national and international policy discussions related to the adoption of the United Nations Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Programme. Effective program instruments must carefully consider incentives, opportunity costs, and community interactions. A choice experiment survey was applied to rural Ethiopian communities to understand respondents’ preferences toward the institutional structure of the program contracts. The results show that respondents have particular preferences about how Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation programs are structured with regard to the manner in which the payments are divided between the households and the communities, the restrictions on using grazing land, and the level of payments received for the program. Surprisingly, restrictions on firewood collection do not significantly impact contract choice. The paper further analyzes the structure of the preferences by using attribute interaction terms and socio-demographic interaction terms. The analysis finds significant regional variation in preferences, indicating that Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation should be tailored to specific regions. Finally, the marginal willingness to pay for attributes is calculated using the traditional preference space approach, as well as the more recent willingness-to-pay approach.

Climate-related hazards have adverse effects on national growth and poverty reduction, affecting the poor and several sectors of the economy simultaneously. At its current rate of growth, Vietnam will become a major global greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. The Government of Vietnam initiated the Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review (CPEIR) to advance an understanding of the current policy and institutional architecture as well as to assess current spending on its climate change response to help guide future climate change-related expenditures and policy implementation. The report has three components: (i) a policy, institutional and methodological review; (ii) an analysis of climate change response (CC-response) spending in five line ministries and three provinces; and (iii) recommendations and an action plan. The main goal of the CPEIR is to provide an overview of the current CC-response activities and formulate recommendations for how to improve priority setting, capacity building, coordination, expenditure management, and mainstreaming of CC-response strategies into socio-economic development plans.

The main objective of the report is to analyze the current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory process in Romania, and provide recommendations for improving the system in order to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of inventory development in compliance with United Nations framework convention on climate change (UNFCCC) and European Union (EU) requirements, including emissions forecasting provisions. This report describes the GHG inventory process and its history, analyzes the legal framework, documents and information provisions, and flows related to making the inventory together with identifying the potential adjustments for improvement, assess reporting entities and correlation mechanisms to economic dynamics, in terms of completeness, coherence, response time constant to changes in the number of companies' impact on data reporting, and provides recommendations on the possibility to improve the inventory-making process in order to meet the requirements of emission projections. The report is organized into seven sections as follows: section one provides a general introduction to GHG inventories. Section two examines the processes and procedures used in the present GHG inventory system in Romania and the alignment of this system with international frameworks including the framework for the development of environmental statistics (FDES) and the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) schematic framework. Section three elaborates the challenges with the existing greenhouse inventory process including data gaps and weaknesses in the statistical infrastructure. Section four looks at the international and national legal requirements for greenhouse gas inventories. Section five provides analysis on the flow of information and the specific verification points to ensure data consistency and coherence. Section six provides a number of recommendations and concludes in section seven with a summary of key recommendations.

This report has been prepared by the World Bank for the Government of Romania as an output of the World Bank advisory services program on climate change and low-carbon green growth in Romania. In response to the request, the World Bank quickly mobilized a team of sectoral and climate change (CC) specialists and conducted rapid assessments in six sectors - energy, transport, urban, water, agriculture, and forestry, which were pre-identified by both the Government of Romania and the World Bank as areas significant to emission mitigation and or adaptation to CC. The objective of rapid assessments was to quickly evaluate climate risks and identify CC-related investment priorities and necessary implementation support for the 2014-2020 operational programs. This document is the stocktaking report of component A1. It provides an introductory cover to the literature on CC, baseline for Romania, institutional review of Romania and key European Union (EU) requirements, as well as available data sets that were identified in the given short-time span. Its purpose is to support the government as a first stock of key climate and green growth issues for Romania and summarize the current situation. The report is structured as follows: section one gives introduction, section two provides the sectoral summary on the country background and characteristics. Section three provides the baseline for the CC and green growth challenges in Romania. Relevant climate dimensions of Europe 2020 and existing EU regulations and policies related to climate change are summarized in section four. Section five provides an overview of national strategies, regulatory framework, and organizational setup for addressing CC in Romania. Background information on the Romania 2014-2020 European structural and investment funds (ESIF) programming and CC related aspects in the forthcoming ESIF programming report are covered in section six. Finally, section seven provides a CC relevant bibliography for Romania that may serve as a tool for referring to key literature in the field.

El presente estudio tuvo como objetivo determinar la contribución de los árboles en potreros a la mitigación al cambio climático mediante la estimación de las reservas de carbono in Costa Rica y Nicaragua. Entre los años 2002 y 2003, 17 783 árboles fueron inventariados en potreros de 59 fincas ubicadas en zonas de bosque tropical seco, húmedo y seco con transición a húmedo. El valor promedio de las reservas de biomasa de los árboles en los potreros fue de 10,7±1,1 Mg/ha con un valor mínimo de 5,3±1 Mg/ha en Rivas y un máximo de 13,5±3,5 Mg/ha en Matiguás. Existe relación entre la biomasa arriba del suelo de los potreros con la densidad árboles y el área basal, lo que permitió desarrollar ecuaciones simples para predecir dichos cambios. El diseño de políticas que incentiven la conservación y manejo de árboles en potreros, será un aspecto clave a ser incorporado dentro de las estrategias de cambio climático de los países. This study aimed to explore the contribution of trees in pastures to climate change mitigation by estimating tree biomass stocks (carbon) in Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Between 2002 and 2003, 17,783 trees were inventoried in pastures of 59 farms located in areas representing three life zones: tropical dry forest, tropical wet forest and transition from tropical dry to tropical wet forest. The average value of biomass stocks of trees in pastures was 10.7 ± 1.1 Mg/ha with a minimum value of 5.3 ± 1 Mg/ha in Rivas and a maximum of 13.5 ± 3.5 Mg/ha in Matiguás. There is a relationship between aboveground biomass in the pastureland, tree density and basal area, which allows the development of simple equations. The design of policies that encourage the conservation and management of trees in pastures will be a key aspect to be incorporated into national climate change strategies.

The report provides quantitative and qualitative insights into the performance of different non-permanence approaches for consideration of parties. This note summarizes the results of the analysis presented in the report. Besides the existing mechanism for temporary crediting, the study analyzed a range of alternative approaches to addressing non-permanence, including those considered in prior deliberations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The approaches address the risk of non-permanence in several ways. Under the tonne year accounting, credits are issued for the increments of carbon sequestered corresponding to a defined permanence period, and their quantity depends on the carbon stored in biomass each year of the permanence period. However, this approach has not been implemented by any standard. These approaches are not mutually exclusive, but can be used in tandem with each other.

Nearly half the world's population and about 81 percent of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) households rely on wood-based biomass energy (fuel wood and charcoal) for cooking. This degree of reliance is far greater than in any other region. While the use of biomass fuels in China, India and much of the developing world has peaked or will do so in the near future, SSA's consumption will either remain at very high levels or even grow over the next few decades. Population growth, coupled with strong urbanization dynamics and relative price changes of alternative fuels, offset the important achievements made over the past decade by significant investments in energy access, rural and urban electrification, off-grid energy developments, and the promotion of alternative energy sources. With increasing economic development, the demand for energy is increasing as well and consumers depend on a broader portfolio of energy sources to satisfy growing energy needs. While electricity and other energy sources are needed to satisfy additional energy needs emerging with economic development, a vast majority of Sub-Saharan African consumers continue to use wood based biomass energy for cooking. Especially electricity is not regarded a suitable alternative for cooking given equipment and use costs. Biomass burning in cook stoves also emits black carbon (BC) as part of visible smoke, which is particulate matter that results from incomplete combustion. Climate science now views BC as the second or third largest warming agent after carbon dioxide, alongside methane. In the case of biomass cooking, the warming effects of BC and the cooling effects of organic carbon that is also emitted during the burning appear to be closely balanced. Given the present uncertainty about the net impact, additional research is currently underway. Black carbon has also an impact at the regional level: it accelerates melting of ice and snow, and contributes to regional pollution which can alter climatic conditions and precipitation patterns over a wide area. This paper advocates that any policy reform should entail a combination of clear rules, transparent enforcement, strong incentives and awareness-creation/capacity development. Key stakeholders and the general public need guidance by way of information campaigns, training, and demonstration projects to ensure that awareness-deficits or false perceptions do not curtail policy implementation. The bureaucratic and administrative barriers e.g. overcomplicated forest management planning requirements, complex fiscal systems and land tenure procedures may inhibit development and thus warrant critical reflection. The regulatory framework needs to integrate externalities in order to promote adequate pricing of charcoal, and thus enhance regional economies.

This internal background paper has been prepared to help inform the 2010 environment strategy with respect to a proposed way forward on use of country systems. The World Bank Group environment strategy is built on three pillars: leveraging natural resources for growth and poverty reduction; managing the environmental risks to growth and development; and transforming growth paths. As part of its exploration of these three pillars, the strategy considers the question of environmental co-benefits of climate change actions. In particular, it poses the question of potential trade-offs between actions to address climate change and other local and regional environmental priorities, and considers how to maximize co-benefits arising from climate action. The primary objective of this background paper is to assess the potential for climate change mitigation and adaptation actions to provide environmental co-benefits, particularly in the quality of environmental media, flow of ecosystem services, and maintenance of biodiversity. To accomplish this, the paper is organized in five sections: section one gives provision of an organizing framework to identify and classify potential co-benefits; section two gives summary of the external literature on co-benefits; section three gives review of examples from the World Bank portfolio; section four presents initial thoughts on creation of enabling conditions for co-benefit provision; and section five gives review of implications for the environment strategy.