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Introduction: Despite the significant impact of cardiovascular disease (CVD), there is not yet an analytical decision tool for assessing efficiency of interventions to prevent primary CVD events in Brazil. Therefore, we sought to adapt a Scottish CVD Policy Model to be used in the proposed population., Methods: Calibration consisted of identifying multiplicative factors for linear predictors of existing survival analysis models to produce predictions that closely match observed data (Life-table and Brazilian cohort study). Target data were life expectancy (LE) and cumulative incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CBVD), fatal CVD and fatal non-CVD. Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) was used to estimate differences between predictions and observations. Acceptance criteria were defined as a fit of less than one year for LE and 1% for cumulative incidence. Male and female models were built separately., Results: The original model underestimated LE (RMSE=2.85 for men and 1.91 for women), CHD and CBVD for women (RMSE=0.044 and 0.041, respectively). The calibration process identified multiplicative factors to reach acceptance criteria for the four target data mentioned above (RMSE=0.61, 0.21, 0.016 and 0.017, respectively). Over prediction was identified only for CHD events in men (RMSE=0.031) being further calibrated (RMSE=0.008). All other target data met the acceptance criteria. Overall, the calibrated model predicts properly to individuals aging 35-80 years old, diabetics or not, smokers or not, with or without family history of CVD, and presenting at least one of the risk factors uncontrolled: Systolic Blood Pressure, Total Cholesterol or HDL-Cholesterol., Discussion: This is the first decision analytic model capable of assessing efficiency of interventions that prevent primary CVD events in Brazil. In future research, independent external validation should be carried out to corroborate the reliability of the model outputs., (Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the rate of major clinical events and its determinants in patients with previous cardiovascular event or not, and with or without diabetes from a middle-income country., Methods: REACT study is a multicenter registry conducted between July 2010 and May 2013 in Brazil. Patients were eligible if they were over 45years old and high cardiovascular risk. Patients were followed for 12months; data were collected regarding adherence to evidence-based therapies and occurrence of clinical events (all-cause mortality, non-fatal cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or stroke)., Results: A total of 5006 subjects was included and analyzed in four groups: No diabetes and no previous cardiovascular event, n=430; diabetes and no previous cardiovascular event, n=1138; no diabetes and previous cardiovascular event, n=1747; and diabetes and previous cardiovascular event, n=1691. Major clinical events in one-year follow-up occurred in 332 patients. A previous cardiovascular event was associated with a higher risk of having another event in the follow-up (HR 2.31 95% CI 1.74-3.05, p<0.001), as did the presence of diabetes (HR 1.28 95% CI 1.10-1.73, p=0.005). In patients with diabetes,failure to reach HbA1c targetswas related topoorer event-free survival compared to patients with good metabolic control (HR 1.70 95% CI 1.01-2.84, p=0.044)., Conclusions: In Brazil, diabetes confers high risk for major clinical events, but this condition is not equivalent to having a previous cardiovascular event. Moreover, not so strict targets for HbA1c in patients with diabetes and previous cardiovascular events might be considered., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

High blood pressure and lipoprotein abnormalities were identified by many cohort studies as the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Laboratory experiments apparently confirmed their role in the causation of atherosclerosis, but a proof of concept requires the corroboration by clinical trials in human beings. The size of benefit in clinical trials regarding the control of high blood pressure was within the estimations of risk provided by cohort studies. For a reduction of 10 mmHg in systolic blood pressure or 5 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure, the relative risk reduction of coronary heart disease was 22% (95% confidence interval 27%-17%) in a meta-analysis of clinical trials, close to the estimation of reduction of 25% (95% confidence interval 23%-27%) provided by a meta-analysis of cohort studies. The corresponding values for stroke were 41% (95% confidence interval 33%-48%) in clinical trials compared to a cohort risk prediction of 36% (95% confidence interval 34%-38%). This efficacy was shared by all blood pressure-lowering drugs. The same figure has not paradoxically happened with drugs that act over abnormalities of cholesterol and lipoproteins. Only statins, which have other beneficial actions as well, have consistently lowered the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, an efficacy that was not reproduced by older and newer quite potent lipid drugs. The adverse effects of these drugs may nullify their beneficial effects over lipoproteins and abnormalities of lipoproteins may only be surrogate markers of the underlying real risks.

Objective: To analyze the effect of diabetes on general and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity in southern Brazil., Research Design and Methods: A population-based cohort study of 1,091 individuals was conducted. Diabetes was ascertained by medical history. The vital status of 982 individuals and the incidence of events were ascertained during another visit and through hospital records, death certificates, and verbal necropsy with relatives., Results: The mean +/- SD age of participants was 43.1 +/- 17 years, and 55.7% were women. The prevalence of diabetes was 4.2%, and the mean follow-up time was 5.3 +/- 0.07 years. Mortality was 36.3% and 6.6% in participants with or without diabetes, respectively; the incidence of CVD was 20.8% and 3.0%, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.4 (95% CI 2.4-7.9). Diabetic population-attributable risk (PAR) for CVD mortality was 10.1% and 13.1% for total CVD., Conclusions: Diabetes is responsible for a large PAR for overall mortality and cardiovascular events in Brazil.

The association between clustering of risk factors and self-reported cardiovascular disease among women was investigated in a cross-sectional study using a multistage population-based sample. Participants were interviewed at home about diabetes mellitus, physical activity, and diet pattern. Hypertension was defined as blood pressure > or =140/90mmHg or use of anti-hypertensive medication. Cardiovascular disease included self-reported myocardial infarction, heart failure, coronary artery bypass surgery, and stroke. A sample of 1,007 women from Porto Alegre, Southern Brazil, mostly white (73%), 44.8 +/- 0.8 years old, and with 9.3 +/- 0.3 years of schooling was investigated. Hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, low fruit and vegetable intake, and lack of vigorous or moderate physical activity were clustered into a combination of risk factors, which were independently associated with self-reported cardiovascular disease. The main cluster included hypertension and diabetes, accounting for an independent risk ratio of 8.5 (95%CI: 3.0-24.5). Clustering of cardiovascular risk factors is strongly associated with self-reported cardiovascular disease among women.

Background: Retinal abnormalities, particularly arteriolar narrowing, are powerful predictors of cardiovascular events. The precision of internists and ophthalmologists in the assessment of retinal vessels widths has been disputed but not evaluated against a technology of edge detection., Methods: Fifty-two patients with hypertension had optic fundi examination done by an internist and an ophthalmologist, and had retinographies taken and digitized to determine vessel diameters by a new technology of edge detection (microdensitometric method). Physicians asserted the presence of arteriolar narrowing (

Objective: Our aim was to investigate risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a population-based Brazilian cohort., Design and Methods: A cohort study was conducted with 1091 individuals identified through multi-stage probability sampling in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Risk factors were investigated among demographic and anthropometric characteristics, including education, smoking habits, income, alcoholic beverage consumption, and blood pressure. A fatal or non-fatal episode of myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure, and cases of sudden death comprised the composite endpoint., Results: Vital status was determined in 982 (90.0%) of the participants of the original cohort after 6.0+/-1.7 years of follow-up. A total of 52 individuals presented a cardiovascular event. Male gender (hazard ratio (HR) 2.01, 95% CI 1.03-3.91), systolic blood pressure (mmHg) (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.04) and alcohol consumption (g/day) (HR 1.001, 95% CI 1.00-1.003) were associated with the incidence of CVD after controlling for confounding. Body mass index (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.99-1.11) and current or previous smoking (HR 1.65, 95% CI 0.83-3.26) showed a trend for a positive association., Conclusions: We confirmed that male gender, systolic blood pressure, obesity and smoking are risk factors for cardiovascular disease in a Brazilian population. The positive association between alcohol consumption and incident CVD was unexpected and deserves replication.