1. Machine learning to predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis over 8 Years using combined MR imaging features, demographics, and clinical factors: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative
- Author
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Thomas M. Link, Michael C. Nevitt, Charles E. McCulloch, Jae Ho Sohn, and Gabby B. Joseph
- Subjects
Male ,Time Factors ,Knee Joint ,Demographics ,Radiography ,Biomedical Engineering ,Osteoarthritis ,Meniscus (anatomy) ,Machine learning ,computer.software_genre ,Article ,Machine Learning ,Rheumatology ,Predictive Value of Tests ,medicine ,Humans ,Orthopedics and Sports Medicine ,Clinical significance ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,medicine.diagnostic_test ,business.industry ,Cartilage ,Magnetic resonance imaging ,Middle Aged ,Osteoarthritis, Knee ,medicine.disease ,Magnetic Resonance Imaging ,Mr imaging ,medicine.anatomical_structure ,Female ,Artificial intelligence ,business ,computer - Abstract
Summary Objective To develop a machine learning-based prediction model for incident radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee over 8 years using MRI-based cartilage biochemical composition and knee joint structure, demographics, and clinical predictors including muscle strength and symptoms. Design Individuals (n=1044) with baseline Kellgren Lawrence (KL) grade 0-1 in the right knee from the Osteoarthritis Initiative database were analyzed. 3T MRI at baseline was used to quantify knee cartilage T2, and Whole-Organ Magnetic Resonance Imaging Scores (WORMS) were obtained for cartilage, meniscus, and bone marrow. The outcome was set as true if a subject developed KL grade 2-4 OA in the right knee over 8 years (n=183) and false if the subject remained at KL 0-1 over 8 years (n=861). We developed and compared three models: Model 1: 112 predictors based on OA risk factors; Model 2: top ten predictors based on feature importance score from Model 1 and clinical relevance; Model 3: Model 2 without the imaging predictors. We compared the models using the area under the R OC curve derived from hold-out data. Results The 10-predictor model (Model 2, that includes cartilage and meniscus WORMS scores and cartilage T2) had a slightly lower AUC (0.772) compared to the model with 112 predictors (Model 1: AUC=0.792, p=0.739); and had a significantly higher AUC compared to the model without MR imaging predictors (Model 3, AUC=0.669, p=0.011). Conclusions A 10-predictor model including MRI parameters coupled with demographics, symptoms, muscle, and physical activity scores provides good prediction of incident radiographic OA over 8 years.
- Published
- 2022