Search

A pulsar's scintillation bandwidth is inversely proportional to the scattering delay, making accurate measurements of scintillation bandwidth critical to characterize unmitigated delays in efforts to measure low-frequency gravitational waves with pulsar timing arrays. In this pilot work, we searched for a subset of known pulsars within $\sim$97% of the data taken with the PUPPI instrument for the AO327 survey with the Arecibo telescope, attempting to measure the scintillation bandwidths in the dataset by fitting to the 2D autocorrelation function of their dynamic spectra. We successfully measured 38 bandwidths from 23 pulsars (six without prior literature values), finding that: almost all of the measurements are larger than the predictions from NE2001 and YMW16 (two popular galactic models); NE2001 is more consistent with our measurements than YMW16; Gaussian fits to the bandwidth are more consistent with both electron density models than Lorentzian ones; and for the 17 pulsars with prior literature values, the measurements between various sources often vary by factors of a few. The success of Gaussian fits may be due to the use of Gaussian fits to train models in previous work. The variance of literature values over time could relate to the scaling factor used to compare measurements, but also seems consistent with time-varying interstellar medium parameters. This work can be extended to the rest of AO327 to further investigate these trends, highlighting the continuing importance of large archival datasets for projects beyond their initial conception., Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables

Evidence has emerged for a stochastic signal correlated among 67 pulsars within the 15-year pulsar-timing data set compiled by the NANOGrav collaboration. Similar signals have been found in data from the European, Indian, Parkes, and Chinese PTAs. This signal has been interpreted as indicative of the presence of a nanohertz stochastic gravitational wave background. To explore the internal consistency of this result we investigate how the recovered signal strength changes as we remove the pulsars one by one from the data set. We calculate the signal strength using the (noise-marginalized) optimal statistic, a frequentist metric designed to measure correlated excess power in the residuals of the arrival times of the radio pulses. We identify several features emerging from this analysis that were initially unexpected. The significance of these features, however, can only be assessed by comparing the real data to synthetic data sets. After conducting identical analyses on simulated data sets, we do not find anything inconsistent with the presence of a stochastic gravitational wave background in the NANOGrav 15-year data. The methodologies developed here can offer additional tools for application to future, more sensitive data sets. While this analysis provides an internal consistency check of the NANOGrav results, it does not eliminate the necessity for additional investigations that could identify potential systematics or uncover unmodeled physical phenomena in the data., Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables

Pulsar timing array observations have found evidence for an isotropic gravitational wave background with the Hellings-Downs angular correlations, expected from general relativity. This interpretation hinges on the measured shape of the angular correlations, which is predominately quadrupolar under general relativity. Here we explore a more flexible parameterization: we expand the angular correlations into a sum of Legendre polynomials and use a Bayesian analysis to constrain their coefficients with the 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). When including Legendre polynomials with multipoles $\ell \geq 2$, we only find a significant signal in the quadrupole with an amplitude consistent with general relativity and non-zero at the $\sim 95\%$ confidence level and a Bayes factor of 200. When we include multipoles $\ell \leq 1$, the Bayes factor evidence for quadrupole correlations decreases by more than an order of magnitude due to evidence for a monopolar signal at approximately 4 nHz which has also been noted in previous analyses of the NANOGrav 15-year data. Further work needs to be done in order to better characterize the properties of this monopolar signal and its effect on the evidence for quadrupolar angular correlations., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures

Free electrons in the interstellar medium refract and diffract radio waves along multiple paths, resulting in angular and temporal broadening of radio pulses that limits pulsar timing precision. We determine multifrequency, multi-epoch scattering times for the large dispersion measure millisecond pulsar J1903+0327 by developing a three component model for the emitted pulse shape that is convolved with a best fit pulse broadening function (PBF) identified from a family of thin-screen and extended-media PBFs. We show that the scattering time, $\tau$, at a fiducial frequency of 1500 MHz changes by approximately 10% over a 5.5yr span with a characteristic timescale of approximately 100 days. We also constrain the spectral index and inner scale of the wavenumber spectrum of electron density variations along this line of sight. We find that the scaling law for $\tau$ vs. radio frequency is strongly affected by any mismatch between the true and assumed PBF or between the true and assumed intrinsic pulse shape. We show using simulations that refraction is a plausible cause of the epoch dependence of $\tau$, manifesting as changes in the PBF shape and $1/e$ time scale. Finally, we discuss the implications of our scattering results on pulsar timing including time of arrival delays and dispersion measure misestimation., Comment: 16 pages, 14 figures, submitted to ApJ

The detection of a stochastic gravitational wave background by pulsar timing arrays suggests the presence of a supermassive black hole binary population. Although the observed spectrum generally aligns with predictions from orbital evolution driven by gravitational wave emission in circular orbits, there is a discernible preference for a turnover at the lowest observed frequencies. This turnover could indicate a significant hardening phase, transitioning from early environmental influences to later stages predominantly influenced by gravitational wave emission. In the vicinity of these binaries, the ejection of stars or dark matter particles through gravitational three-body slingshots efficiently extracts orbital energy, leading to a low-frequency turnover in the spectrum. By analyzing the NANOGrav 15-year data, we assess how the gravitational wave spectrum depends on the initial inner galactic profile prior to disruption by binary ejections, accounting for a range of initial binary eccentricities. Our findings suggest a parsec-scale galactic center density around $10^6\,M_\odot/\textrm{pc}^3$ across most of the parameter space, offering insights into the environmental effects on black hole evolution and combined matter density near galaxy centers., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures

A computationally efficient method for calculating the transport of neutrino flavor in simulations is to use angular moments of the neutrino one-body reduced density matrix, i.e., `quantum moments'. As with any moment-based radiation transport method, a closure is needed if the infinite tower of moment evolution equations is truncated. We derive a general parameterization of a quantum closure and the limits the parameters must satisfy in order for the closure to be physical. We then derive from multi-angle calculations the evolution of the closure parameters in two test cases which we then progressively insert into a moment evolution code and show how the parameters affect the moment results until the full multi-angle results are reproduced. This parameterization paves the way to setting prescriptions for genuine quantum closures adapted to neutrino transport in a range of situations., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures

We present an overview of Sherpa, an open source Python project, and discuss its development history, broad design concepts and capabilities. Sherpa contains powerful tools for combining parametric models into complex expressions that can be fit to data using a variety of statistics and optimization methods. It is easily extensible to include user-defined models, statistics, and optimization methods. It provides a high-level User Interface for interactive data-analysis, such as within a Jupyter notebook, and it can also be used as a library component, providing fitting and modeling capabilities to an application. We include a few examples of Sherpa applications to multiwavelength astronomical data. The code is available GitHub: https://github.com/sherpa/sherpa, Comment: accepted by the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series, 12 pages, 11 figures

Quantum angular moment transport schemes are an important avenue toward describing neutrino flavor mixing phenomena in dense astrophysical environments such as supernovae and merging neutron stars. Successful implementation will require new closure relations that go beyond those used in classical transport. In this paper, we derive the first analytic expression for a quantum M1 closure, valid in the limit of small flavor coherence, based on the maximum entropy principle. We verify that the resulting closure relation has the appropriate limits and characteristic speeds in the diffusive and free-streaming regimes. We then use this new closure in a moment linear stability analysis to search for fast flavor instabilities in a binary neutron star merger simulation and find better results as compared with previously designed, ad hoc, semi-classical closures., Comment: 7 pages, 1 figure (Supp. Material: 4 pages, 2 figures)

The NANOGrav 15-year data provides compelling evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave (GW) background at nanohertz frequencies. The simplest model-independent approach to characterizing the frequency spectrum of this signal consists in a simple power-law fit involving two parameters: an amplitude A and a spectral index \gamma. In this paper, we consider the next logical step beyond this minimal spectral model, allowing for a running (i.e., logarithmic frequency dependence) of the spectral index, \gamma_run(f) = \gamma + \beta \ln(f/f_ref). We fit this running-power-law (RPL) model to the NANOGrav 15-year data and perform a Bayesian model comparison with the minimal constant-power-law (CPL) model, which results in a 95% credible interval for the parameter \beta consistent with no running, \beta \in [-0.80,2.96], and an inconclusive Bayes factor, B(RPL vs. CPL) = 0.69 +- 0.01. We thus conclude that, at present, the minimal CPL model still suffices to adequately describe the NANOGrav signal; however, future data sets may well lead to a measurement of nonzero \beta. Finally, we interpret the RPL model as a description of primordial GWs generated during cosmic inflation, which allows us to combine our results with upper limits from big-bang nucleosynthesis, the cosmic microwave background, and LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

Multi-messenger observation of binary neutron-star mergers can provide valuable information on the nuclear equation of state (EoS). Here, we investigate to which extent electromagnetic observations of the associated kilonovae allow us to place constraints on the EoS. For this, we use state-of-the-art three-dimensional general-relativistic magneto-hydrodynamics simulations and detailed nucleosynthesis modeling to connect properties of observed light curves to properties of the accretion disk, and hence, the EoS. Using our general approach, we use multi-messenger observations of GW170817/AT2017gfo to study the impact of various sources of uncertainty on inferences of the EoS. We constrain the radius of a $\rm{1.4 M_\odot}$ neutron star to lie within $\rm{10.19\leq R_{1.4}\leq 13.0}$~km and the maximum mass to be $\rm{M_{TOV}\leq 3.06 M_\odot}$., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures. Comments welcome!

Pulsar-timing-array experiments have reported evidence for a stochastic background of nanohertz gravitational waves consistent with the signal expected from a population of supermassive--black-hole binaries. Those analyses assume power-law spectra for intrinsic pulsar noise and for the background, as well as a Hellings--Downs cross-correlation pattern among the gravitational-wave--induced residuals across pulsars. These assumptions are idealizations that may not be realized in actuality. We test them in the NANOGrav 15 yr data set using Bayesian posterior predictive checks: after fitting our fiducial model to real data, we generate a population of simulated data-set replications, and use them to assess whether the optimal-statistic significance, inter-pulsar correlations, and spectral coefficients assume extreme values for the real data when compared to the replications. We confirm that the NANOGrav 15 yr data set is consistent with power-law and Hellings--Downs assumptions. We also evaluate the evidence for the stochastic background using posterior-predictive versions of the frequentist optimal statistic and of Bayesian model comparison, and find comparable significance (3.2\ $\sigma$ and 3\ $\sigma$ respectively) to what was previously reported for the standard statistics. We conclude with novel visualizations of the reconstructed gravitational waveforms that enter the residuals for each pulsar. Our analysis strengthens confidence in the identification and characterization of the gravitational-wave background as reported by NANOGrav., Comment: 20 pages, 14 Figures

Traditional pulsar timing techniques involve averaging large numbers of single pulses to obtain a high signal-to-noise (S/N) profile, which is matched to a template to measure a time of arrival (TOA). However, the morphology of individual single pulses varies greatly due to pulse jitter. Pulses of different fluence contribute differently to the S/N of the pulse average. Our study proposes a method that accounts for these variations by identifying a range of states and timing each separately. We selected two 1-hour observations of PSR J2145-0750, each in a different frequency band with the Green Bank Telescope. We normalized the pulse amplitudes to account for scintillation effects and probed different excision algorithms to reduce radio-frequency interference. We then measured four pulse parameters (amplitude, position, width, and energy) to classify the single pulses using automated clustering algorithms. For each cluster, we calculated an average pulse profile and template and used both to obtain a TOA and TOA error. Finally, we computed the weighted average TOA and TOA error, the latter as a metric of the total timing precision for the epoch. The TOA is shifted relative to the one obtained without clustering, and we can estimate the shift with this weighting using the same data. For the 820 MHz and 1400 MHz bands, we obtained TOA uncertainties of 0.057 microseconds and 0.46 microseconds, compared to 0.066 microseconds and 0.74 microseconds when no clustering is applied. We conclude that tailoring this method could help improve the timing precision for certain bright pulsars in NANOGrav's dataset.

A small number of pulsars are known to emit giant pulses, single pulses much brighter than average. Among these is PSR J0534+2200, also known as the Crab pulsar, a young pulsar with high giant pulse rates. Long-term monitoring of the Crab pulsar presents an excellent opportunity to perform statistical studies of its giant pulses and the processes affecting them, potentially providing insight into the behavior of other neutron stars that emit bright single pulses. Here, we present an analysis of a set of 24,985 Crab giant pulses obtained from 88 hours of daily observations at a center frequency of 1.55 GHz by the 20-meter telescope at the Green Bank Observatory, spread over 461 days. We study the effects of refractive scintillation at higher frequencies than previous studies and compare methods of correcting for this effect. We also search for deterministic patterns seen in other single-pulse sources, possible periodicities seen in several rotating radio transients and fast radio bursts, and clustering of giant pulses like that seen in the repeating fast radio burst FRB121102., Comment: 21 pages, 14 figures, accepted to ApJ

Based on the rate of change of its orbital period, PSR J2043+1711 has a substantial peculiar acceleration of 3.5 $\pm$ 0.8 mm/s/yr, which deviates from the acceleration predicted by equilibrium Milky Way models at a $4\sigma$ level. The magnitude of the peculiar acceleration is too large to be explained by disequilibrium effects of the Milky Way interacting with orbiting dwarf galaxies ($\sim$1 mm/s/yr), and too small to be caused by period variations due to the pulsar being a redback. We identify and examine two plausible causes for the anomalous acceleration: a stellar flyby, and a long-period orbital companion. We identify a main-sequence star in \textit{Gaia} DR3 and Pan-STARRS DR2 with the correct mass, distance, and on-sky position to potentially explain the observed peculiar acceleration. However, the star and the pulsar system have substantially different proper motions, indicating that they are not gravitationally bound. However, it is possible that this is an unrelated star that just happens to be located near J2043+1711 along our line of sight (chance probability of 1.6\%). Therefore, we also constrain possible orbital parameters for a circumbinary companion in a hierarchical triple system with J2043+1711; the changes in the spindown rate of the pulsar are consistent with an outer object that has an orbital period of 80 kyr, a companion mass of 0.3 $M_\odot$ (indicative of a white dwarf or low-mass star), and a semi-major axis of 2000 AU. Continued timing and/or future faint optical observations of J2043+1711 may eventually allow us to differentiate between these scenarios.

Pulsar timing array experiments have recently uncovered evidence for a nanohertz gravitational wave background by precisely timing an ensemble of millisecond pulsars. The next significant milestones for these experiments include characterizing the detected background with greater precision, identifying its source(s), and detecting continuous gravitational waves from individual supermassive black hole binaries. To achieve these objectives, generating accurate and precise times of arrival of pulses from pulsar observations is crucial. Incorrect polarization calibration of the observed pulsar profiles may introduce errors in the measured times of arrival. Further, previous studies (e.g., van Straten 2013; Manchester et al. 2013) have demonstrated that robust polarization calibration of pulsar profiles can reduce noise in the pulsar timing data and improve timing solutions. In this paper, we investigate and compare the impact of different polarization calibration methods on pulsar timing precision using three distinct calibration techniques: the Ideal Feed Assumption (IFA), Measurement Equation Modeling (MEM), and Measurement Equation Template Matching (METM). Three NANOGrav pulsars-PSRs J1643$-$1224, J1744$-$1134, and J1909$-$3744-observed with the 800 MHz and 1.5 GHz receivers at the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) are utilized for our analysis. Our findings reveal that all three calibration methods enhance timing precision compared to scenarios where no polarization calibration is performed. Additionally, among the three calibration methods, the IFA approach generally provides the best results for timing analysis of pulsars observed with the GBT receiver system. We attribute the comparatively poorer performance of the MEM and METM methods to potential instabilities in the reference noise diode coupled to the receiver and temporal variations in the profile of the reference pulsar, respectively., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, Accepted for Publication in Astrophysical Journal

We report on findings from scintillation analyses using high-cadence observations of eight canonical pulsars with observing baselines ranging from one to three years. We obtain scintillation bandwidth and timescale measurements for all pulsars in our survey, scintillation arc curvature measurements for four, and detect multiple arcs for two. We find evidence of a previously undocumented scattering screen along the line of sight (LOS) to PSR J1645$-$0317, as well as evidence that a scattering screen along the LOS to PSR J2313$+$4253 may reside somewhere within the Milky Way's Orion-Cygnus arm. We report evidence of a significant change in the scintillation pattern in PSR J2022$+$5154 from the previous two decades of literature, wherein both the scintillation bandwidth and timescale decreased by an order of magnitude relative to earlier observations at the same frequencies, potentially as a result of a different screen dominating the observed scattering. By augmenting the results of previous studies, we find general agreement with estimations of scattering delays from pulsar observations and predictions by the NE2001 electron density model but not for the newest data we have collected, providing some evidence of changes in the ISM along various LOSs over the timespans considered. In a similar manner, we find additional evidence of a correlation between a pulsar's dispersion measure and the overall variability of its scattering delays over time. The plethora of interesting science obtained through these observations demonstrates the capabilities of the Green Bank Observatory's 20m telescope to contribute to pulsar-based studies of the interstellar medium., Comment: Accepted to ApJ

In 2007 we were part of a team that discovered the so-called ``Lorimer Burst'', the first example of a new class of objects now known as fast radio bursts (FRBs). These enigmatic events are only a few ms in duration and occur at random locations on the sky at a rate of a few thousand per day. Several thousand FRBs are currently known. While it is now well established that they have a cosmological origin, and about 10\% of all currently known sources have been seen to exhibit multiple bursts, the origins of these enigmatic sources are currently poorly understood. In this article, we review the discovery of FRBs and present some of the highlights from the vast body of work by an international community. Following a brief overview of the scale of the visible Universe in \S 1, we describe the key moments in radio astronomy (\S 2) that led up to the discovery of the Lorimer burst (\S 3). Early efforts to find more FRBs are described in \S 4 which led to the discovery of the first repeating source (\S 5). In \S 6, as we close out on the second decade of FRBs, we outline some of the many open questions in the field and look ahead to the coming years where many surprises are surely in store., Comment: 23 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Science; manuscript based on the 2023 Shaw Prize Lecture in Astronomy delivered by the authors

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are designed to detect low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs). GWs induce achromatic signals in PTA data, meaning that the timing delays do not depend on radio-frequency. However, pulse arrival times are also affected by radio-frequency dependent "chromatic" noise from sources such as dispersion measure (DM) and scattering delay variations. Furthermore, the characterization of GW signals may be influenced by the choice of chromatic noise model for each pulsar. To better understand this effect, we assess if and how different chromatic noise models affect achromatic noise properties in each pulsar. The models we compare include existing DM models used by NANOGrav and noise models used for the European PTA Data Release 2 (EPTA DR2). We perform this comparison using a subsample of six pulsars from the NANOGrav 15 yr data set, selecting the same six pulsars as from the EPTA DR2 six-pulsar dataset. We find that the choice of chromatic noise model noticeably affects the achromatic noise properties of several pulsars. This is most dramatic for PSR J1713+0747, where the amplitude of its achromatic red noise lowers from $\log_{10}A_{\text{RN}} = -14.1^{+0.1}_{-0.1}$ to $-14.7^{+0.3}_{-0.5}$, and the spectral index broadens from $\gamma_{\text{RN}} = 2.6^{+0.5}_{-0.4}$ to $\gamma_{\text{RN}} = 3.5^{+1.2}_{-0.9}$. We also compare each pulsar's noise properties with those inferred from the EPTA DR2, using the same models. From the discrepancies, we identify potential areas where the noise models could be improved. These results highlight the potential for custom chromatic noise models to improve PTA sensitivity to GWs.

We postprocess a three-dimensional general relativistic, full transport neutrino radiation magnetohydrodynamics simulation of the black hole--accretion disk--wind system thought to be a potential outcome of the GW170817 merger to investigate the presence of electron lepton number (ELN-XLN) crossings in the neutrino angular distribution. Neutrinos are evolved with an explicit Monte Carlo method and can interact with matter via emission, absorption, or scattering. Within the postprocessing framework, we find ubiquitous occurrence of ELN-XLN crossings at early times ($\sim$ 11ms) but this does not hold for later times in the simulation. At postmerger times of $ \sim$ 60 ms and beyond, ELN-XLN crossings are only present near the equator. We provide a detailed analysis of the neutrino radiation field to investigate the origin and time evolution of these crossings. Previous reports have suggested ubiquitous flavor crossings persisting throughout the simulation lifetime, albeit for different sets of conditions for the merger remnant, the treatment of hydrodynamics and neutrino transport. Even though we do not perform a direct comparison with other published works, we qualitatively assess the reasons for the difference with our results. The geometric structure and evolution of the ELN-XLN crossings found in our analysis, and by extension, fast flavor instabilities have important implications for heavy element nucleosynthesis in neutron star mergers.

We use cyclic spectroscopy to perform high frequency-resolution analyses of multi-hour baseband Arecibo observations of the millisecond pulsar PSR B1937+21. This technique allows for the examination of scintillation features in far greater detail than is otherwise possible under most pulsar timing array observing setups. We measure scintillation bandwidths and timescales in each of eight subbands across a 200 MHz observing band in each observation. Through these measurements we obtain intra-epoch estimates of the frequency scalings for scintillation bandwidth and timescale.Thanks to our high frequency resolution and the narrow scintles of this pulsar, we resolve scintillation arcs in the secondary spectra due to the increased Nyquist limit, which would not have been resolved at the same observing frequency with a traditional filterbank spectrum using NANOGrav's current time and frequency resolutions, and the frequency-dependent evolution of scintillation arc features within individual observations. We observe the dimming of prominent arc features at higher frequencies, possibly due to a combination of decreasing flux density and the frequency dependence of the plasma refractive index of the interstellar medium. We also find agreement with arc curvature frequency dependence predicted by Stinebring et al. (2001) in some epochs. Thanks to the frequency resolution improvement provided by cyclic spectroscopy, these results show strong promise for future such analyses with millisecond pulsars, particularly for pulsar timing arrays, where such techniques can allow for detailed studies of the interstellar medium in highly scattered pulsars without sacrificing the timing resolution that is crucial to their gravitational wave detection efforts., Comment: Accepted to ApJ

The cosmic merger history of supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) is expected to produce a low-frequency gravitational wave background (GWB). Here we investigate how signs of the discrete nature of this GWB can manifest in pulsar timing arrays through excursions from, and breaks in, the expected $f_{\mathrm{GW}}^{-2/3}$ power-law of the GWB strain spectrum. To do this, we create a semi-analytic SMBHB population model, fit to NANOGrav's 15 yr GWB amplitude, and with 1,000 realizations we study the populations' characteristic strain and residual spectra. Comparing our models to the NANOGrav 15 yr spectrum, we find two interesting excursions from the power-law. The first, at $2 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is below our GWB realizations with $p$-value significance $p = 0.05$ to $0.06$ ($\approx 1.8 \sigma - 1.9 \sigma$). The second, at $16 \; \mathrm{nHz}$, is above our GWB realizations with $p = 0.04$ to $0.15$ ($\approx 1.4 \sigma - 2.1 \sigma$). We explore the properties of a loud SMBHB which could cause such an excursion. Our simulations also show that the expected number of SMBHBs decreases by three orders of magnitude, from $\sim 10^6$ to $\sim 10^3$, between $2\; \mathrm{nHz}$ and $20 \; \mathrm{nHz}$. This causes a break in the strain spectrum as the stochasticity of the background breaks down at $26^{+28}_{-19} \; \mathrm{nHz}$, consistent with predictions pre-dating GWB measurements. The diminished GWB signal from SMBHBs at frequencies above the $26~\mathrm{nHz}$ break opens a window for PTAs to detect continuous GWs from individual SMBHBs or GWs from the early universe., Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, 2 appendices, in press at ApJ

The simulation of heavy element nucleosynthesis requires input from yet-to-be-measured nuclear properties. The uncertainty in the values of these off-stability nuclear properties propagates to uncertainties in the predictions of elemental and isotopic abundances. However, for any given astrophysical explosion, there are many different trajectories, i.e. temperature and density histories, experienced by outflowing material and thus different nuclear properties can come into play. We consider combined nucleosynthesis results from 460,000 trajectories from a neutron star-black hole accretion disk and the find spread in elemental predictions due solely to unknown nuclear properties to be a factor of a few. We analyze this relative spread in model predictions due to nuclear variations and conclude that the uncertainties can be attributed to a combination of properties in a given region of the abundance pattern. We calculate a cross-correlation between mass changes and abundance changes to show how variations among the properties of participating nuclei may be explored. Our results provide further impetus for measurements of multiple quantities on individual short-lived neutron-rich isotopes at modern experimental facilities., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures; comments welcome

A key feature of active galactic nuclei (AGN) is their variability across all wavelengths. Typically, AGN vary by a few tenths of a magnitude or more over periods lasting from hours to years. By contrast, extreme variability of AGN -- large luminosity changes that are a significant departure from the baseline variability -- are known as AGN flares. These events are rare and their timescales poorly constrained, with most of the literature focusing on individual events. It has been suggested that extreme AGN variability including flares can provide insights into the accretion processes in the disk. With surveys such as the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) promising millions of transient detections per night in the coming decade, there is a need for fast and efficient classification of AGN flares. The problem with the systematic detection of AGN flares is the requirement to detect them against a stochastically variable baseline; the ability to define a signal as a significant departure from the ever-present variability is a statistical challenge. Recently, Gaussian Processes (GPs) have revolutionised the analysis of time-series data in many areas of astronomical research. They have, however, seen limited uptake within the field of transient detection and classification. Here we investigate the efficacy of Gaussian Processes to detect AGN flares in both simulated and real optical light curves. We show that GP analysis can successfully detect AGN flares with a false-positive rate of less than seven per cent, and we present examples of AGN light curves that show extreme variability., Comment: 14 pages, 25 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We have searched for radio pulsations towards 49 Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) 1FGL Catalog $\gamma$-ray sources using the Green Bank Telescope at 350 MHz. We detected 18 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in blind searches of the data; 10 of these were discoveries unique to our survey. Sixteen are binaries, with eight having short orbital periods $P_B < 1$ day. No radio pulsations from young pulsars were detected, although three targets are coincident with apparently radio-quiet $\gamma$-ray pulsars discovered in LAT data. Here, we give an overview of the survey and present radio and $\gamma$-ray timing results for the 10 MSPs discovered. These include the only isolated MSP discovered in our survey and six short-$P_B$ binary MSPs. Of these, three have very low-mass companions ($M_c$ $\ll$ 0.1M$_{\odot}$) and hence belong to the class of black widow pulsars. Two have more massive, non-degenerate companions with extensive radio eclipses and orbitally modulated X-ray emission consistent with the redback class. Significant $\gamma$-ray pulsations have been detected from nine of the discoveries. This survey and similar efforts suggest that the majority of Galactic $\gamma$-ray sources at high Galactic latitudes are either MSPs or relatively nearby non-recycled pulsars, with the latter having on average a much smaller radio/$\gamma$-ray beaming ratio as compared to MSPs. It also confirms that past surveys suffered from an observational bias against finding short-$P_B$ MSP systems., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ (25 pages, 15 figues, 4 tables)

Neutrino evolution, of great importance in environments such as neutron star mergers (NSMs) because of their impact on explosive nucleosynthesis, is still poorly understood due to the high complexity and variety of possible flavor conversion mechanisms. In this study, we focus on so-called "fast flavor oscillations", which can occur on timescales of nanoseconds and are connected to the existence of a crossing between the angular distributions of electron (anti)neutrinos. Based on the neutrino radiation field drawn from a three dimensional neutron star merger simulation, we use an extension of the two-moment formalism of neutrino quantum kinetics, and perform a linear stability analysis to determine the characteristics of fast flavor instabilities across the simulation. We compare the results to local (centimeter-scale) three-dimensional two-flavor simulations using either a moment method or a particle-in-cell architecture. We get generally good agreement in the instability growth rate and typical instability lengthscale, although the imperfections of the closure used in moment methods remain to be better understood., Comment: Proceedings of XVIII International Conference on Topics in Astroparticle and Underground Physics (TAUP2023)

The AO327 drift survey for radio pulsars and transients used the Arecibo telescope from 2010 until its collapse in 2020. AO327 collected ~3100 hours of data at 327 MHz with a time resolution of 82 us and frequency resolution of 24 kHz. While the main motivation for such surveys is the discovery of new pulsars and new, even unforeseen, types of radio transients, they also serendipitously collect a wealth of data on known pulsars. We present an electronic catalog of data and data products on 206 pulsars whose periodic emission was detected by AO327 and are listed in the ATNF catalog of all published pulsars. The AO327 data products include dedispersed time series at full time resolution, average ("folded") pulse profiles, Gaussian pulse profile templates, and an absolute phase reference that allows phase-aligning the AO327 pulse profiles in a physically meaningful manner with profiles from data taken with other instruments. We also provide machine-readable tables with uncalibrated flux measurements at 327 MHz and pulse widths at 50% and 10% of the pulse peak determined from the fitted Gaussian profile templates. The AO327 catalog data set can be used in applications like population analysis of radio pulsars, pulse profile evolution studies in time and frequency, cone and core emission of the pulsar beam, scintillation, pulse intensity distributions, and others. It also constitutes a ready-made resource for teaching signal processing and pulsar astronomy techniques., Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

The Green Bank North Celestial Cap survey is one of the largest and most sensitive searches for pulsars and transient radio objects. Observations for the survey have finished; priorities have shifted toward long-term monitoring of its discoveries. In this study, we have developed a pipeline to handle large datasets of archival observations and connect them to recent, high-cadence observations taken using the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) telescope. This pipeline handles data for 128 pulsars and has produced measurements of spin, positional, and orbital parameters that connect data over observation gaps as large as 2000 days. We have also measured glitches in the timing residuals for five of the pulsars included and proper motion for 19 sources (13 new). We include updates to orbital parameters for 19 pulsars, including 9 previously unpublished binaries. For two of these binaries, we provide updated measurements of post-Keplerian binary parameters, which result in much more precise estimates of the total masses of both systems. For PSR J0509+3801, the much improved measurement of the Einstein delay yields much improved mass measurements for the pulsar and its companion, 1.399(6)\Msun and 1.412(6)\Msun, respectively. For this system, we have also obtained a measurement of the orbital decay due to the emission of gravitational waves: $\dot{P}_{\rm B} = -1.37(7)\times10^{-12}$, which is in agreement with the rate predicted by general relativity for these masses., Comment: accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Providing an accurate modeling of neutrino physics in dense astrophysical environments such as binary neutron star mergers presents a challenge for hydrodynamic simulations. Nevertheless, understanding how flavor transformation can occur and affect the dynamics, the mass ejection, and the nucleosynthesis will need to be achieved in the future. Computationally expensive, large-scale simulations frequently evolve the first classical angular moments of the neutrino distributions. By promoting these quantities to matrices in flavor space, we develop a linear stability analysis of fast flavor oscillations using only the first two "quantum" moments, which notably requires generalizing the classical closure relations that appropriately truncate the hierarchy of moment equations in order to treat quantum flavor coherence. After showing the efficiency of this method on a well-understood test situation, we perform a systematic search of the occurrence of fast flavor instabilities in a neutron star merger simulation. We discuss the successes and shortcomings of moment linear stability analysis, as this framework provides a time-efficient way to design and study better closure prescriptions in the future., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures. v2: added references, updated appendix C

We demonstrate that the well-known 2.6 MeV gamma-ray emission line from thallium-208 could serve as a real-time indicator of astrophysical heavy element production, with both rapid (r) and intermediate (i) neutron capture processes capable of its synthesis. We consider the r process in a Galactic neutron star merger and show Tl-208 to be detectable from ~12 hours to ~10 days, and again ~1-20 years post-event. Detection of Tl-208 represents the only identified prospect for a direct signal of lead production (implying gold synthesis), arguing for the importance of future MeV telescope missions which aim to detect Galactic events but may also be able to reach some nearby galaxies in the Local Group., Comment: accepted to PRL

PSR J1641+8049 is a 2 ms black widow pulsar with the 2.2 h orbital period detected in the radio and $\gamma$-rays. We performed new phase-resolved multi-band photometry of PSR J1641+8049 using the OSIRIS instrument at the Gran Telescopio Canarias. The obtained data were analysed together with the new radio-timing observations from the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME), the X-ray data from the Spectrum-RG/eROSITA all-sky survey, and all available optical photometric observations. An updated timing solution based on CHIME data is presented, which accounts for secular and periodic modulations in pulse dispersion. The system parameters obtained through the light curve analysis, including the distance to the source 4.6-4.8 kpc and the orbital inclination 56-59 deg, are found to be consistent with previous studies. However, the optical flux of the source at the maximum brightness phase faded by a factor of $\sim$2 as compared to previous observations. Nevertheless, the face of the J1641+8049 companion remains one of the most heated (8000-9500 K) by a pulsar among the known black widow pulsars. We also report a new estimation on the pulsar proper motion of $\approx$2 mas yr$^{-1}$, which yields a spin down luminosity of $\approx$4.87$\times 10^{34}$ ergs s$^{-1}$ and a corresponding heating efficiency of the companion by the pulsar of 0.3-0.7. The pulsar was not detected in X-rays implying its X-ray-luminosity was <3 $\times$ 10$^{31}$ erg s$^{-1}$ at the date of observations., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The double pulsar system, PSR J0737$-$3039A/B, consists of two neutron stars bound together in a highly relativistic orbit that is viewed nearly edge-on from the Earth. This alignment results in brief radio eclipses of the fast-rotating pulsar A when it passes behind the toroidal magnetosphere of the slow-rotating pulsar B. The morphology of these eclipses is strongly dependent on the geometric orientation and rotation phase of pulsar B, and their time-evolution can be used to constrain the geodetic precession rate of the pulsar. We demonstrate a Bayesian inference framework for modelling eclipse light-curves obtained with MeerKAT between 2019-2023. Using a hierarchical inference approach, we obtained a precession rate of $\Omega_{\rm SO}^{\rm B} = {5.16^{\circ}}^{+0.32^{\circ}}_{-0.34^{\circ}}$ yr$^{-1}$ for pulsar B, consistent with predictions from General Relativity to a relative uncertainty of 6.5%. This updated measurement provides a 6.1% test of relativistic spin-orbit coupling in the strong-field regime. We show that a simultaneous fit to all of our observed eclipses can in principle return a $\sim$1.5% test of spin-orbit coupling. However, systematic effects introduced by the current geometric orientation of pulsar B along with inconsistencies between the observed and predicted eclipse light curves result in difficult to quantify uncertainties. Assuming the validity of General Relativity, we definitively show that the spin-axis of pulsar B is misaligned from the total angular momentum vector by $40.6^{\circ} \pm 0.1^{\circ}$ and that the orbit of the system is inclined by approximately $90.5^{\circ}$ from the direction of our line of sight. Our measured geometry for pulsar B suggests the largely empty emission cone contains an elongated horseshoe shaped beam centered on the magnetic axis, and that it may not be re-detected as a radio pulsar until early-2035., Comment: Abridged abstract. 13 pages, 9 figures and 2 tables

Magnetohydrodynamic turbulence drives the central engine of post-merger remnants, potentially powering both a nucleosynthetically active disk wind and the relativistic jet behind a short gamma ray burst. We explore the impact of the magnetic field on this engine by simulating three post-merger black hole accretion disks using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics with Monte Carlo neutrino transport, in each case varying the initial magnetic field strength. We find increasing ejecta masses associated with increasing magnetic field strength. We find that a fairly robust main r -process pattern is produced in all three cases, scaled by the ejected mass. Changing the initial magnetic field strength has a considerable effect on the geometry of the outflow and hints at complex central engine dynamics influencing lanthanide outflows. We find that actinide production is especially sensitive to magnetic field strength, with overall actinide mass fraction calculated at 1 Gyr post-merger increasing by more than a factor of six with a tenfold increase in magnetic field strength. This hints at a possible connection to the variability in actinide enhancements exhibited by metal poor, r -process-enhanced stars.

Recently we found compelling evidence for a gravitational wave background with Hellings and Downs (HD) correlations in our 15-year data set. These correlations describe gravitational waves as predicted by general relativity, which has two transverse polarization modes. However, more general metric theories of gravity can have additional polarization modes which produce different interpulsar correlations. In this work we search the NANOGrav 15-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background with quadrupolar Hellings and Downs (HD) and Scalar Transverse (ST) correlations. We find that HD correlations are the best fit to the data, and no significant evidence in favor of ST correlations. While Bayes factors show strong evidence for a correlated signal, the data does not strongly prefer either correlation signature, with Bayes factors $\sim 2$ when comparing HD to ST correlations, and $\sim 1$ for HD plus ST correlations to HD correlations alone. However, when modeled alongside HD correlations, the amplitude and spectral index posteriors for ST correlations are uninformative, with the HD process accounting for the vast majority of the total signal. Using the optimal statistic, a frequentist technique that focuses on the pulsar-pair cross-correlations, we find median signal-to-noise-ratios of 5.0 for HD and 4.6 for ST correlations when fit for separately, and median signal-to-noise-ratios of 3.5 for HD and 3.0 for ST correlations when fit for simultaneously. While the signal-to-noise-ratios for each of the correlations are comparable, the estimated amplitude and spectral index for HD are a significantly better fit to the total signal, in agreement with our Bayesian analysis., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures

Binary neutron star mergers (BNS) produce high-energy emissions from several physically different sources, including a gamma-ray burst (GRB) and its afterglow, a kilonova, and, at late times, a remnant many parsecs in size. Ionizing radiation from these sources can be dangerous for life on Earth-like planets when located too close. Work to date has explored the substantial danger posed by the GRB to on-axis observers: here we focus instead on the potential threats posed to nearby off-axis observers. Our analysis is based largely on observations of the GW 170817/GRB 170817A multi-messenger event, as well as theoretical predictions. For baseline kilonova parameters, we find that the X-ray emission from the afterglow may be lethal out to $\sim 5$ pc and the off-axis gamma-ray emission may threaten a range out to $\sim 4$ pc, whereas the greatest threat comes years after the explosion, from the cosmic rays accelerated by the kilonova blast, which can be lethal out to distances up to $\sim 11$ pc. The distances quoted here are typical, but the values have significant uncertainties and depend on the viewing angle, ejected mass, and explosion energy in ways we quantify. Assessing the overall threat to Earth-like planets, have a similar kill distance to supernovae, but are far less common. However, our results rely on the scant available kilonova data, and multi-messenger observations will clarify the danger posed by such events., Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures. Comments welcome

The radio galaxy 3C 66B has been hypothesized to host a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) at its center based on electromagnetic observations. Its apparent 1.05-year period and low redshift ($\sim0.02$) make it an interesting testbed to search for low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs) using Pulsar Timing Array (PTA) experiments. This source has been subjected to multiple searches for continuous GWs from a circular SMBHB, resulting in progressively more stringent constraints on its GW amplitude and chirp mass. In this paper, we develop a pipeline for performing Bayesian targeted searches for eccentric SMBHBs in PTA data sets, and test its efficacy by applying it on simulated data sets with varying injected signal strengths. We also search for a realistic eccentric SMBHB source in 3C 66B using the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set employing PTA signal models containing Earth term-only as well as Earth+Pulsar term contributions using this pipeline. Due to limitations in our PTA signal model, we get meaningful results only when the initial eccentricity $e_0<0.5$ and the symmetric mass ratio $\eta>0.1$. We find no evidence for an eccentric SMBHB signal in our data, and therefore place 95% upper limits on the PTA signal amplitude of $88.1\pm3.7$ ns for the Earth term-only and $81.74\pm0.86$ ns for the Earth+Pulsar term searches for $e_0<0.5$ and $\eta>0.1$. Similar 95% upper limits on the chirp mass are $(1.98 \pm 0.05) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$ and $(1.81 \pm 0.01) \times 10^9\,M_{\odot}$. These upper limits, while less stringent than those calculated from a circular binary search in the NANOGrav 12.5-year data set, are consistent with the SMBHB model of 3C 66B developed from electromagnetic observations., Comment: 27 Pages, 10 Figures, 1 Table, Accepted for publication in ApJ

We simulate a black-hole accretion disk system with full-transport general relativistic neutrino radiation magnetohydrodynamics (GR$\nu$RMHD) for 1.2 seconds. This system is likely to form after the merger of two compact objects and is thought to be a robust site of $r$-process nucleosynthesis. We consider the case of a black-hole accretion disk arising from the merger of two neutron stars. Our simulation time coincides with the nucleosynthesis timescale of the $r$ process ($\sim$ 1 second). Because these simulations are time consuming, it is common practice to run for `short' duration of approximately 0.1 to 0.3 seconds. We analyze the nucleosynthetic outflow from this system and compare the results between stopping at 0.12 and 1.2 seconds respectively. We find that the addition of mass ejected in the longer simulation as well as more favorable thermodynamic conditions from emergent viscous ejecta greatly impacts the nucleosynthetic outcome. We quantify the error in nucleosynthetic outcomes between short and long cuts., Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures, comments welcome

Analysis of pulsar timing data have provided evidence for a stochastic gravitational wave background in the nHz frequency band. The most plausible source of such a background is the superposition of signals from millions of supermassive black hole binaries. The standard statistical techniques used to search for such a background and assess its significance make several simplifying assumptions, namely: i) Gaussianity; ii) isotropy; and most often iii) a power-law spectrum. However, a stochastic background from a finite collection of binaries does not exactly satisfy any of these assumptions. To understand the effect of these assumptions, we test standard analysis techniques on a large collection of realistic simulated datasets. The dataset length, observing schedule, and noise levels were chosen to emulate the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. Simulated signals from millions of binaries drawn from models based on the Illustris cosmological hydrodynamical simulation were added to the data. We find that the standard statistical methods perform remarkably well on these simulated datasets, despite their fundamental assumptions not being strictly met. They are able to achieve a confident detection of the background. However, even for a fixed set of astrophysical parameters, different realizations of the universe result in a large variance in the significance and recovered parameters of the background. We also find that the presence of loud individual binaries can bias the spectral recovery of the background if we do not account for them., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, version matching published paper

Multi-messenger astrophysics has produced a wealth of data with much more to come in the future. This enormous data set will reveal new insights into the physics of core collapse supernovae, neutron star mergers, and many other objects where it is actually possible, if not probable, that new physics is in operation. To tease out different possibilities, we will need to analyze signals from photons, neutrinos, gravitational waves, and chemical elements. This task is made all the more difficult when it is necessary to evolve the neutrino component of the radiation field and associated quantum-mechanical property of flavor in order to model the astrophysical system of interest -- a numerical challenge that has not been addressed to this day. In this work, we take a step in this direction by adopting the technique of angular-integrated moments with a truncated tower of dynamical equations and a closure, convolving the flavor-transformation with spatial transport to evolve the neutrino radiation quantum field. We show that moments capture the dynamical features of fast flavor instabilities in a variety of systems, although our technique is by no means a universal blueprint for solving fast flavor transformation. To evaluate the effectiveness of our moment results, we compare to a more precise particle-in-cell method. Based on our results, we propose areas for improvement and application to complementary techniques in the future., Comment: Version accepted by Astrophysical Journal. 33 pages, 5 tables, 16 figures

The Australian, Chinese, European, Indian, and North American pulsar timing array (PTA) collaborations recently reported, at varying levels, evidence for the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB). Given that each PTA made different choices in modeling their data, we perform a comparison of the GWB and individual pulsar noise parameters across the results reported from the PTAs that constitute the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA). We show that despite making different modeling choices, there is no significant difference in the GWB parameters that are measured by the different PTAs, agreeing within $1\sigma$. The pulsar noise parameters are also consistent between different PTAs for the majority of the pulsars included in these analyses. We bridge the differences in modeling choices by adopting a standardized noise model for all pulsars and PTAs, finding that under this model there is a reduction in the tension in the pulsar noise parameters. As part of this reanalysis, we "extended" each PTA's data set by adding extra pulsars that were not timed by that PTA. Under these extensions, we find better constraints on the GWB amplitude and a higher signal-to-noise ratio for the Hellings and Downs correlations. These extensions serve as a prelude to the benefits offered by a full combination of data across all pulsars in the IPTA, i.e., the IPTA's Data Release 3, which will involve not just adding in additional pulsars, but also including data from all three PTAs where any given pulsar is timed by more than as single PTA., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, submitted to ApJ

Transient radio sources, such as fast radio bursts, intermittent pulsars, and rotating radio transients, can offer a wealth of information regarding extreme emission physics as well as the intervening interstellar and/or intergalactic medium. Vital steps towards understanding these objects include characterizing their source populations and estimating their event rates across observing frequencies. However, previous efforts have been undertaken mostly by individual survey teams at disparate observing frequencies and telescopes, and with non-uniform algorithms for searching and characterization. The Petabyte Project (TPP) aims to address these issues by uniformly reprocessing data from several petabytes of radio transient surveys covering two decades of observing frequency (300 MHz-20 GHz). The TPP will provide robust event rate analyses, in-depth assessment of survey and pipeline completeness, as well as revealing discoveries from archival and ongoing radio surveys. We present an overview of TPP's processing pipeline, scope, and our potential to make new discoveries., Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure. Accepted for publication in Proceedings for IAU Symposium 369: The Dawn of Cosmology & Multi-Messenger Studies with Fast Radio Bursts

Noise characterization for pulsar-timing applications accounts for interstellar dispersion by assuming a known frequency-dependence of the delay it introduces in the times of arrival (TOAs). However, calculations of this delay suffer from mis-estimations due to other chromatic effects in the observations. The precision in modeling dispersion is dependent on the observed bandwidth. In this work, we calculate the offsets in infinite-frequency TOAs due to mis-estimations in the modeling of dispersion when using varying bandwidths at the Green Bank Telescope. We use a set of broadband observations of PSR J1643-1224, a pulsar with an excess of chromatic noise in its timing residuals. We artificially restricted these observations to a narrowband frequency range, then used both data sets to calculate residuals with a timing model that does not include short-scale dispersion variations. By fitting the resulting residuals to a dispersion model, and comparing the ensuing fitted parameters, we quantify the dispersion mis-estimations. Moreover, by calculating the autocovariance function of the parameters we obtained a characteristic timescale over which the dispersion mis-estimations are correlated. For PSR J1643-1224, which has one of the highest dispersion measures (DM) in the NANOGrav pulsar timing array, we find that the infinite-frequency TOAs suffer from a systematic offset of ~22 microseconds due to DM mis-estimations, with correlations over ~1 month. For lower-DM pulsars, the offset is ~7 microseconds. This error quantification can be used to provide more robust noise modeling in NANOGrav's data, thereby increasing sensitivity and improving parameter estimation in gravitational wave searches.

We report the radio observations of the eclipsing black widow pulsar J1720-0534, a 3.26 ms pulsar in orbit with a low mass companion of mass 0.029 to 0.034 M$_{\odot}$. We obtain the phase-connected timing ephemeris and polarization profile of this millisecond pulsar (MSP) using the Five-hundred-meter Aperture Spherical Radio Telescope (FAST), the Green Bank Telescope (GBT), and the Parkes Telescope. For the first time from such a system, an oscillatory polarisation angle change was observed from a particular eclipse egress with partial depolarization, indicating 10-milliGauss-level reciprocating magnetic fields oscillating in a length scale of 5000 km (assuming an orbital inclination angle of 90 degrees) outside the companion's magnetosphere. The dispersion measure variation observed during the ingresses and egresses shows the rapid raising of the electron density in the shock boundary between the companion's magnetosphere and the surrounding pulsar wind. We suggest that the observed oscillatory magnetic fields originate from the pulsar wind outside the companion's magnetosphere., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted by RAA

This paper presents rigorous tests of pulsar timing array methods and software, examining their consistency across a wide range of injected parameters and signal strength. We discuss updates to the 15-year isotropic gravitational-wave background analyses and their corresponding code representations. Descriptions of the internal structure of the flagship algorithms \texttt{Enterprise} and \texttt{PTMCMCSampler} are given to facilitate understanding of the PTA likelihood structure, how models are built, and what methods are currently used in sampling the high-dimensional PTA parameter space. We introduce a novel version of the PTA likelihood that uses a two-step marginalization procedure that performs much faster when the white noise parameters remain fixed. We perform stringent tests of consistency and correctness of the Bayesian and frequentist analysis software. For the Bayesian analysis, we test prior recovery, injection recovery, and Bayes factors. For the frequentist analysis, we test that the cross-correlation-based optimal statistic, when modified to account for a non-negligible gravitational-wave background, accurately recovers the amplitude of the background. We also summarize recent advances and tests performed on the optimal statistic in the literature from both GWB detection and parameter estimation perspectives. The tests presented here validate current and future analyses of PTA data., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 1 table; Companion paper to "The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background"; For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) has reported evidence for the presence of an isotropic nanohertz gravitational wave background (GWB) in its 15 yr dataset. However, if the GWB is produced by a population of inspiraling supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) systems, then the background is predicted to be anisotropic, depending on the distribution of these systems in the local Universe and the statistical properties of the SMBHB population. In this work, we search for anisotropy in the GWB using multiple methods and bases to describe the distribution of the GWB power on the sky. We do not find significant evidence of anisotropy, and place a Bayesian $95\%$ upper limit on the level of broadband anisotropy such that $(C_{l>0} / C_{l=0}) < 20\%$. We also derive conservative estimates on the anisotropy expected from a random distribution of SMBHB systems using astrophysical simulations conditioned on the isotropic GWB inferred in the 15-yr dataset, and show that this dataset has sufficient sensitivity to probe a large fraction of the predicted level of anisotropy. We end by highlighting the opportunities and challenges in searching for anisotropy in pulsar timing array data., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures; submitted to Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are galactic-scale gravitational wave detectors. Each individual arm, composed of a millisecond pulsar, a radio telescope, and a kiloparsecs-long path, differs in its properties but, in aggregate, can be used to extract low-frequency gravitational wave (GW) signals. We present a noise and sensitivity analysis to accompany the NANOGrav 15-year data release and associated papers, along with an in-depth introduction to PTA noise models. As a first step in our analysis, we characterize each individual pulsar data set with three types of white noise parameters and two red noise parameters. These parameters, along with the timing model and, particularly, a piecewise-constant model for the time-variable dispersion measure, determine the sensitivity curve over the low-frequency GW band we are searching. We tabulate information for all of the pulsars in this data release and present some representative sensitivity curves. We then combine the individual pulsar sensitivities using a signal-to-noise-ratio statistic to calculate the global sensitivity of the PTA to a stochastic background of GWs, obtaining a minimum noise characteristic strain of $7\times 10^{-15}$ at 5 nHz. A power law-integrated analysis shows rough agreement with the amplitudes recovered in NANOGrav's 15-year GW background analysis. While our phenomenological noise model does not model all known physical effects explicitly, it provides an accurate characterization of the noise in the data while preserving sensitivity to multiple classes of GW signals., Comment: 67 pages, 73 figures, 3 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We present observations and timing analyses of 68 millisecond pulsars (MSPs) comprising the 15-year data set of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav). NANOGrav is a pulsar timing array (PTA) experiment that is sensitive to low-frequency gravitational waves. This is NANOGrav's fifth public data release, including both "narrowband" and "wideband" time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements and corresponding pulsar timing models. We have added 21 MSPs and extended our timing baselines by three years, now spanning nearly 16 years for some of our sources. The data were collected using the Arecibo Observatory, the Green Bank Telescope, and the Very Large Array between frequencies of 327 MHz and 3 GHz, with most sources observed approximately monthly. A number of notable methodological and procedural changes were made compared to our previous data sets. These improve the overall quality of the TOA data set and are part of the transition to new pulsar timing and PTA analysis software packages. For the first time, our data products are accompanied by a full suite of software to reproduce data reduction, analysis, and results. Our timing models include a variety of newly detected astrometric and binary pulsar parameters, including several significant improvements to pulsar mass constraints. We find that the time series of 23 pulsars contain detectable levels of red noise, 10 of which are new measurements. In this data set, we find evidence for a stochastic gravitational-wave background., Comment: 90 pages, 74 figures, 6 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org