1. Development of land use regression, dispersion, and hybrid models for prediction of outdoor air pollution exposure in Barcelona.
- Author
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Domínguez A, Dadvand P, Cirach M, Arévalo G, Barril L, Foraster M, Gascon M, Raimbault B, Galmés T, Goméz-Herrera L, Persavento C, Samuelsson K, Lao J, Moreno T, Querol X, Jerrett M, Schwartz J, Tonne C, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Sunyer J, Basagaña X, and Rivas I
- Subjects
- Spain, Environmental Exposure statistics & numerical data, Environmental Exposure analysis, Models, Theoretical, Air Pollutants analysis, Air Pollution statistics & numerical data, Air Pollution analysis, Environmental Monitoring methods, Particulate Matter analysis
- Abstract
Background: Air pollution is the leading environmental risk factor for health. Assessing outdoor air pollution exposure with detailed spatial and temporal variability in urban areas is crucial for evaluating its health effects., Aim: We developed and compared Land Use Regression (LUR), dispersion (DM), and hybrid (HM) models to estimate outdoor concentrations for NO
2 , PM2.5 , black carbon (BC), and PM2.5-constituents (Fe, Cu, Zn) in Barcelona., Methods: Two monitoring campaigns were conducted. In the first, NO2 concentrations were measured twice at 984 home addresses and in the second, NO2 , PM2.5 , and BC were measured four times at 34 points across Barcelona. LUR and DM were constructed using conventional techniques, while HM was developed using Random Forest (RF). Model performance was evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) and 10-fold cross-validation (10-CV) for LUR and HM, and by comparing DM and LUR estimates with routine monitoring stations. NO2 levels estimated by all models were externally validated using the home monitoring campaign. Agreement between models was assessed using Spearman correlation (rs) and Bland-Altman (BA) plots., Results: Models showed moderate to good performance. LUR exhibited R2 LOOCV of 0.62 (NO2 ), 0.45 (PM2.5 ), 0.83 (BC), and 0.85 to 0.89 (PM2.5-constituents ). DM model comparison showed R2 values of 0.39 (NO2 ), 0.26 (PM2.5 ), and 0.65 (BC). HM models had higher R2 10-CV 0.64 (NO2 ), 0.66 (PM2.5 ), 0.86 (BC), and 0.44 to 0.70 (PM2.5-constituents ). Validation for NO2 showed R2 values of 0.56 (LUR), 0.44 (DM), and 0.64 (HM). Correlations between models varied from -0.38 to 0.92 for long-term exposure, and - 0.23 to 0.94 for short-term exposure. BA plots showed good agreement between models, especially for NO2 and BC., Conclusions: Our models varied substantially, with some models performing better in validation samples (NO2 and BC). Future health studies should use the most accurate methods to minimize bias from exposure measurement error., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)- Published
- 2024
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