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We employ survey data for 108 developing countries over the period 2006–2017 and estimate an ordered probit model to determine the firm and country characteristics that affect the probability that a firm is energy poor—i.e., the firm will report that electricity is an obstacle to the firm's operations. We find that firms that experienced power outages and firms in the manufacturing industry are more likely to be energy poor. In contrast, majority-owned government firms and older firms are less likely to be energy poor. The gender of the firm owner and the size of the firm are not correlated with firm energy poverty. Among firms that experienced power outages, firm energy poverty increases with the frequency as well as the duration of outages. We also find that firms that operate in countries with weak institutions and in countries where residents have limited access to electricity are more likely to be energy poor.

International audience; Oil-dependent countries face a twin-shock: in addition to the COVID-19 outbreak, they are facing an oil price collapse. In this paper, we study the impact of this dual shock on the forecasted GDP growth in Africa using the COVID-19 outbreak as a natural experiment. We use the IMF World Economic Outlook’s GDP growth forecasts before and after the outbreak. We find that COVID-19 related deaths result in -2.75 percentage points forecasted GDP growth loss in the all sample while oil-dependence induces -7.6 percentage points loss. We document that the joint shock entails higher forecasted growth loss in oil-dependent economies (-10.75 percentage points). Based on oil price forecasts and our empirical findings, we identify five recovery policies with high potential: social safety net policy, economic diversification, innovation and technological transformation, fiscal discipline, and climate-friendly recovery policy.

Several policies or interventions have been implemented in developing countries with the ultimate goal of improving educational outcomes and human capital. Although many empirical studies have pointed to mixed results of these interventions, the role of uncertainty arising from the state of nature about the educational environment and household characteristics in the efficiency of these interventions still lacks an economic mechanism. This paper aims at developing a theoretical framework that links policy interventions to educational outcomes. We characterize optimal policies and determine the conditions for enhancing social welfare.

International audience; Besides the dreadful direct effects, enduring epidemics like HIV/AIDS induce much more subtle effects in the economy, principally via labor productivity and factor accumulation.Concerning the former, the impact of morbidity on effective labor has been recognized and accounted for since the early work of Over (1992) and Cuddington and Hancock (1994).The impact of mortality shocks on savings, and therefore on factor accumulation, has also been documented in this early literature, with an emphasis on the detrimental role of the inducedhealth expenditures. Recently, Asiedu, Jin, and Kanyama (2015) show that HIV/AIDS has a negative but diminishing effect on foreign direct investment (FDI), and this adverse effect occurseven when the prevalent HIV rate is low. In contrast, the consequences of HIV/AIDS on human capital accumulation have been more rarely treated. In particular, its impact on schoolingtime n generally omitted in the macroeconomic literature. Ferreira, Pessôa, and Dos Santos (2011) is an exception. The inherent mechanism is known as the Ben Porath mechanism (Ben Porath 1967): a downward trendin life expectancy following mortality shocks reduces the profitability of schooling, leading to a decline of human capital accumulation in the medium and long run. Boucekkine, de la Croix, and Licandro (2002) have proposed a theory ofendogenous growth based on the Ben-Porath mechanism. Notice also that the same essential argument (that shorter time horizons discourage investment) can be applied to physical capitalaccumulation; the latter may collapse not only because of the massive increase in health expenditures undermining savings as in the early literature but also via this indirect mechanism. Bothchannels are taken into account by Freire (2004) in her analysis of saving behavior in South Africa after the outbreak of the HIV/AIDS crisis.

We study dynamics of interactions among economic growth, population, and environmental quality when stochastic shocks in these systems display long-memory property. We make two important contributions. First, we show that the long-memory persistence in economic growth is determined jointly by the convergence speed of shocks in both environmental quality and population. Second, by simulating a modified Solow-Swan economy we demonstrate that the convergence-speed of shocks in these systems significantly affects the long-run growth trajectory of output. Our empirical examination evince that adjustment of output to long-run equilibrium is very slow, thanks to the slowly dissipating population and pollution shocks.

International audience; Relying on a structural nonparametric estimation, we show that co2 emissions clearly increase with income at low income levels. For higher income levels, we observe a decreasing relationship, though not significant. We also find that co2 emissions monotonically increases with energy use at a decreasing rate.; À l’aide d’une modélisation non paramétrique structurelle, nous montrons que les émissions de co2 augmentent clairement avec le revenu pour de faibles niveaux de revenus. Cette relation est décroissante bien que non significative pour des niveaux de revenu élevés. Nous observons également que les émissions de co2 augmentent de manière monotone, mais à un taux décroissant, avec la consommation d’énergie.

This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to study the role of preference structure (additive, multiplicative and a convex combination of the two) in connecting consumption, health investment, stock of health and capital, and their effects on the wage rate and on productivity. We show that the elasticities of health production, health investment and health cost determine jointly how health influences the wage rate. We examine the steady state and the equilibrium dynamics of the model. In the case of additive preferences, the existence of equilibrium and the stability of the dynamic system require that the ratio of the elasticities of the cost of health and health investment is greater than the elasticity of the production function of health. Health stock can have either positive or negative effects on wages via a mechanism of reservation wages. When preferences are multiplicative, the condition of the existence of equilibrium and the stability of the dynamic system reverse, and the effect of health stock on wages is always positive. Longevity is a decreasing convex-concave function of the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution of health. We also compare the relative behavior of opportunity costs of health under preference structure.

We use country panel data spanning over 1998-2008 for both developed and developing countries to study the productivity growth when countries are close to the technology frontier. Relying on a semi-parametric generalized additive model, we estimate both reduced and structural forms for total factor productivity growth. We consider three measurements of frontier: the economy with the highest level of productivity growth, the world productivity growth and the productivity growth of the USA. We obtain a U-shape relation between productivity growth and the proximity to the world productivity growth. The relation between productivity growth and human capital displays an inverted U-shape form (res. U-shape) when the proximity to the highest productivity growth is used (res. the proximity to productivity growth of the USA). Total staff in R&D has an inverted W-shape effect on productivity growth. The share of R&D expenditure funded by government and from abroad impact positively the growth of productivity. However, the increase in government spending on R&D has a greater impact on productivity growth when the former is weak, and a smaller impact when R&D spending is already high. International trade has a positive effect on productivity growth. Specification tests show that our semi-parametric models provide a better approximation of the data compared to the parametric analogue, revealing a high degree of nonlinearity governing productivity growth.

This paper explores the relationship between the growth rates of per capita income and age- structured population in a non-parametric setting. Analysis in this framework provides us with new insights about the interaction structure: significant non-linear relation between the two and interesting ’direct’ and ’feedback’ effects on growth. Nonlinearity is found to be a major source of growth fluctuations in OECD and non-OECD countries.

This paper studies how the spatial effects of demographic system affects economic growth of different countries. Population growth shocks (whether in aggregate or in disaggregate form) in general have spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. By constructing a ‘demographic distance’ function based on both average age-shares and their stochastic time series characteristics, we show that persistence of spatial demographic system has had discernible effects on economic growth of Asia, Europe, Africa, and Latin America and Offshore countries in the last four decades. While the temporal study of demographic system on economic growth fluctuations is getting popularity, this paper goes a step further to explain persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal features by studying a spatial VAR model of demography and economic growth.