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Funding: European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No. 834103). Background : Previous work identifies conservative family behaviour amongst Pakistanis in the United Kingdom relative to natives, including earlier marriages, fewer dissolutions, and higher fertility. However, few studies have investigated how fertility and partnership are intertwined and interdependent. Objective : Our aims are, first, to identify differences between the family trajectories of Pakistanis and natives and, second, to determine if patterns are consistent across immigrant generations. Finally, we aim to identify how family trajectories vary across birth cohorts and education levels. Methods : We apply multichannel sequence analysis (MCSA) to data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We first use clustering methods to group similar individuals and then apply multinomial logistic regression to calculate the probability of belonging to a cluster based on individual characteristics. Results : The Pakistani population exhibits a higher likelihood of entering a direct marriage and having large families compared to natives. Cohabitation is rare amongst Pakistani population. These patterns have changed little between immigrant generations. Degree-level education is associated with a higher likelihood of adopting behaviours typical to ancestral natives; however, the effects are not large enough to indicate convergence. Contribution : We demonstrate the need to investigate partnership and fertility trajectories simultaneously and show the value of MCSA for identifying differences between migrant groups. The results improve our understanding of family formation patterns of Pakistani immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom. Publisher PDF

Open Access funding enabled and organized by Projekt DEAL. Since 2010, the Nordic countries have experienced substantial fertility decline. This was unexpected, as these countries have well-established systems of family support policies and they did not experience a fertility shock in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 economic recession like many other European countries. Previous studies paid little attention to the spatial dimension of this unexpected fertility change, despite evidence of large spatial variation in fertility. This paper aims to close this gap through a spatial perspective and deepen our understanding of how Nordic fertility change varies by economic and social contexts. We apply advanced spatial panel models on data for 1,099 municipalities covering Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Next to analyzing total fertility rates, we also compare the relevance of economic and social contexts for spatial fertility variation at younger or older ages. We note distinct differences by levels of urbanization and differing trends between the age groups. We also find that measures of unemployment and union stability are associated with lower levels of fertility across space and time, while support for conservative parties is related to higher fertility. Age-specific analyses highlighted that economic conditions are more relevant for fertility variation under age thirty than over age thirty. Overall, our analysis provides support for the view that both economic and social factors are highly relevant for understanding spatial variation in the Nordic fertility decline. Given the strong spatial component in Nordic fertility change, policy initiatives would also benefit from a spatial dimension to effectively address fertility change. Publisher PDF

Funding: Shubhankar Sharma holds a St Andrews—Max Planck PhD Scholarship in Population Health. He gratefully acknowledges funding from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, the University of St Andrews, and the resources made available by the International Max Planck Research School for Population, Health and Data Science. Hill Kulu received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No. 834103). His research was also supported by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/K007394/1 (ESRC Centre for Population Change). Mikko Myrskylä was supported by the ERC Synergy Grant to BIOSFER (No. 101071773) and the Strategic Research Council (SRC) grant to FLUX Consortium, decision numbers 345130 and 345131. Cognitively impaired adults without a partner are highly disadvantaged, as partners constitute an important source of caregiving and emotional support. With the application of innovative multistate models to the Health and Retirement Study, this paper is the first to estimate joint expectancies of cognitive and partnership status at age 50 by sex, race/ethnicity, and education in the United States. We find that women live a decade longer unpartnered than men. Women are also disadvantaged as they experience three more years as both cognitively impaired and unpartnered than men. Black women live over twice as long as cognitively impaired and unpartnered compared with White women. Lower-educated men and women live around three and five years longer, respectively, as cognitively impaired and unpartnered than more highly educated men and women. This study addresses a novel facet of partnership and cognitive status dynamics and examines their variations by key socio-demographic factors. Publisher PDF

Objectives Evidence suggests long-term exposure to fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) is associated with a higher risk of cognitive impairment, especially among older adults. This study examines the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and cognitive function in China’s aging population. Methods We used longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011–2015) linked with historical PM2.5 concentrations (2000–2015) from remotely sensed satellite data. Growth curve models were applied to estimate associations between PM2.5 exposure (measured in intensity, duration, and a joint variable of intensity with duration for cumulative exposure) and cognitive function. Results Relative to the lowest exposure group, exposure in the second group of PM2.5 intensity (35–50 μg/m3) is associated with poorer cognitive function, but higher levels of PM2.5 appear to be associated with better cognitive function, indicating a U-shaped association. Similar patterns are seen for fully adjusted models of PM2.5 duration: the second group (13–60 months) is associated with worse cognitive function than the first group (0–12 months), but coefficients are nonsignificant in longer duration groups. Joint analysis of PM2.5 intensity with duration suggests that duration may play a more detrimental role in cognitive function than intensity. However, we do not find a statistically significant association between PM2.5 exposure and the rate of cognitive decline. Discussion Our findings are mixed and suggest that some categories of higher and longer exposure to PM2.5 are associated with poorer cognitive function, while that exposures do not hasten cognitive decline. However, more work is necessary to disentangle PM2.5 exposure from individuals’ background characteristics, particularly those jointly associated with cognitive function and urban living.

Background Air pollution is associated with poor health; though it is unclear whether this association is stronger for ethnic minorities compared to the rest of the population. This study uses longitudinal data to investigate the spatial–temporal effect of air pollution on individuals’ reported health and its variation by ethnicity in the United-Kingdom (UK). Methods Longitudinal individual-level data from Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study including 67,982 adult individuals with 404,264 repeated responses over 11 years (2009–2019) were utilized and were linked to yearly concentrations of NO2, SO2, and particulate-matter (PM10, PM2.5) pollution once at the local authority and once at the census Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence for each individual. This allows for analysis at two geographical scales over time. The association between air pollution and individuals’ health (Likert scale: 1–5, Excellent to poor) and its variation by ethnicity was assessed using three-level mixed-effects ordered logistic models. Analysis distinguished between spatial (between areas) and temporal (across time within each area) effects of air pollution on health. Results Higher concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 pollution were associated with poorer health. Decomposing air pollution into between (spatial: across local authorities or LSOAs) and within (temporal: across years within each local authority or LSOA) effects showed a significant between effect for NO2 and SO2 pollutants at both geographical scales, while a significant between effect for PM10 and PM2.5 was shown only at the LSOAs level. No significant within effects were detected at an either geographical level. Indian, Pakistani/Bangladeshi, Black/African/Caribbean and other ethnic groups and non-UK-born individuals reported poorer health with increasing concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 pollutants in comparison to the British-white and UK-born individuals. Conclusion Using longitudinal data on individuals’ health linked with air pollution data at two geographical scales (local authorities and LSOAs), this study supports the presence of a spatial–temporal association between air pollution and poor self-reported health, which is stronger for ethnic minorities and foreign-born individuals in the UK, partly explained by location-specific differences. Air pollution mitigation is necessary to improve individuals’ health, especially for ethnic minorities who are affected the most.

This study is part of a PhD project that was supported by the St Leonard’s interdisciplinary PhD scholarship, University of St Andrews, Scotland, UK. Previous studies have investigated the impact of air pollution on health and mortality. However, there is little research on how this impact varies by individuals’ ethnicity. Using a sample of more than 2.5-million individuals aged 16 and older from the 2011 UK census linked to 10-years air pollution data, this article investigates the effect of air pollution on self-reported general health and limiting long-term illness (LLTI) in five main ethnic groups and by country of birth in UK. The association of air pollution with self-reported health and LLTI by individual’s ethnicity was examined using two levels mixed-effects generalised-linear models. Pakistani/Bangladeshi, Indian, Black/African/Caribbean, and other ethnic minorities and people born outside UK/Ireland were more likely to report poorer health and the presence of LLTI than White-group and UK/Ireland born individuals. Higher concentrations of NO2, SO2 and CO pollutants were associated with poorer self-reported health and the presence of LLTI in the UK population. Analysis by ethnicity showed a more pronounced effect of NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and CO air pollution on poor self-reported health and the presence of LLTI among ethnic minorities, mostly for people from Black/African/Caribbean origin compared to White people, and among non-UK/Ireland born individuals compared to natives. Using a large-scale individual-level census data linked to air pollution spatial data, our study supports the long-term deteriorating effect of air pollution on self-reported health and LLTI, which is more pronounced for ethnic minorities and non-natives. Publisher PDF

Funding: Alina Pelikh's research was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J500094/1; PhD project: “Transition to Adulthood in Britain: The analysis of life trajectories of young adults,” the North West Doctoral Training Centre) and the University of Liverpool. Julia Mikolai's and Hill Kulu's research was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (Grant ES/L01663X/1 ‘Partner relationships, residential relocations, and housing in the life course’ PartnerLife project in the Open Research Area Plus scheme; and Grant ES/K007394/1 under the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC)). This study investigates partnership transitions of young adults born between 1974 and 1990 in England and Wales. These cohorts were affected by the expansion of higher education, increasing gender equality, and ideational changes, but faced increased economic precarity caused by the economic and housing crisis. Given these changes, it is likely that the partnership experiences of young adults including marriage, cohabitation, separation, and repartnering have also undergone considerable changes. We apply competing risks event history analysis to combined data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study to determine how birth cohort, gender, socio-economic background, and educational attainment influence partnership changes. We study the transition into and out of first cohabitation and marriage and repartnering between age 16 and 27. Cohabitation has become a universal form of first union among young adults born in the late 1970s and 1980s regardless of their socio-economic background or educational level, but their first unions do not last long. While cohabiters are equally likely to marry or separate in the oldest cohort (1974–1979), cohabiting unions are very likely to end in separation among the two youngest cohorts (1980–1984 and 1985–1990). Consequently, repartnering has become common; those in the youngest cohort repartner rather quickly suggesting that an increasing number of individuals experience multiple partnerships. Highly educated young adults have higher rates of entry into first cohabitation than their lower educated counterparts across all cohorts. However, we do not find differences in cohabitation outcomes by socio-economic background and educational level indicating that the main changes have taken place across birth cohorts. The results also suggest that there is a convergence in partnership experiences among young men and women. The increased prevalence of sliding into and out of cohabitation could indicate significant changes in the meaning young people attach to first partnerships. Postprint Publisher PDF

This project is led by Hill Kulu and funded by the European Research Council under the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme: H2020 Excellent Science (H2020 European Research Council, grant number 834103). While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants’ family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist. Publisher PDF

Research Funding: Economic and Social Research Council, Grant Numbers: ES/S009477/1, ES/R009139/1. This paper examines the recent declines in period fertility in the constituent countries of the UK during the past decade and speculates mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic could influence childbearing in the UK. The effects are likely to differ by age and presence of children. Considering potential forces acting on individuals at different ages and family sizes, we expect that the COVID-19 pandemic will depress fertility, particularly among younger people. Because fertility at all ages was declining before the onset of the pandemic, this could mean a further decline in period fertility to historically low UK levels. We put forward a number of scenarios to examine the possible impact of the pandemic on numbers of live births. Our projections show that for three scenarios out of four, fertility is expected to decline over the next 3 years, leading to significantly fewer births annually compared with the pre-pandemic period. Publisher PDF

Background Recent studies suggest an association between ambient air pollution and mental well-being, though evidence is mostly fragmented and inconclusive. Research also suffers from methodological limitations related to study design and moderating effect of key demographics (e.g., ethnicity). This study examines the effect of air pollution on reported mental well-being in United Kingdom (UK) using spatial-temporal (between-within) longitudinal design and assesses the moderating effect of ethnicity. Methods Data for 60,146 adult individuals (age:16+) with 349,748 repeated responses across 10-data collection waves (2009–2019) from “Understanding-Society: The-UK-Household-Longitudinal-Study” were linked to annual concentrations of NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 pollutants using the individuals’ place of residence, given at the local-authority and at the finer Lower-Super-Output-Areas (LSOAs) levels; allowing for analysis at two geographical scales across time. The association between air pollution and mental well-being (assessed through general-health-questionnaire-GHQ12) and its modification by ethnicity and being non-UK born was assessed using multilevel mixed-effect logit models. Results Higher odds of poor mental well-being was observed with every 10μg/m3 increase in NO2, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 pollutants at both LSOAs and local-authority levels. Decomposing air pollution into spatial-temporal (between-within) effects showed significant between, but not within effects; thus, residing in more polluted local-authorities/LSOAs have higher impact on poor mental well-being than the air pollution variation across time within each geographical area. Analysis by ethnicity revealed higher odds of poor mental well-being with increasing concentrations of SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 only for Pakistani/Bangladeshi, other-ethnicities and non-UK born individuals compared to British-white and natives, but not for other ethnic groups. Conclusion Using longitudinal individual-level and contextual-linked data, this study highlights the negative effect of air pollution on individuals’ mental well-being. Environmental policies to reduce air pollution emissions can eventually improve the mental well-being of people in UK. However, there is inconclusive evidence on the moderating effect of ethnicity.

Funding: The Chief Scientist Office funded the SHELS (Grant CZH/4/878). Supplementary grants (no numbers) were provided by Health Protection Scotland and NHS Health Scotland. G. C. was awarded by St Leonard's and Geography & Sustainable Development PhD studentship to study ethnic differences in health in Scotland. This study investigates ethnic differences in self-assessed health in Scotland and their determinants, focusing on socio-economic status and migrant generations. We use the Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study (SHELS) and apply regression analysis to data for 4.6 million people. The analysis shows that the White British, Other White and Chinese groups reported better health than the White Scottish population, whereas Pakistani and Indian populations had worse health outcomes. For the latter two groups, this contrasts with previous findings of mortality advantage and thus highlights a morbidity-mortality paradox in these South Asian populations. Our findings imply that socio-economic deprivation, health selection and acculturation explain health inequalities for some ethnic groups, but for other groups, especially those of Pakistani origin, other mechanisms deserve further exploration. Postprint

This research was supported by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/K007394/1 and carried out in the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC). The effects of COVID-19 are likely to be social stratified. Disease control measures introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic mean that people spend much more time in their immediate households, due to lockdowns, the need to self-isolate, and school and workplace closures. This has elevated the importance of certain household–level characteristics for individuals’ current and future wellbeing. The multi-dimensional poverty and health inequalities literature suggests that poor health and socio-economic conditions cluster in the general population, which may exacerbate societal inequalities over time. This study investigates how COVID-19-related health- and socio-economic vulnerabilities occur at the household level, and how they are distributed across household types and geographical areas in the United Kingdom. Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of UK households and applying principal components analysis, we derived summary measures representing different dimensions of household vulnerabilities critical during the COVID-19 epidemic: health, employment, housing, financial and digital. Our analysis highlights four key findings. First, although COVID-19-related health risks are concentrated in retirement-age households, a substantial proportion of working age households also face these risks. Second, different types of households exhibit different vulnerabilities, with working-age households more likely to face financial and housing precarities, and retirement-age households health and digital vulnerabilities. Third, there are area-level differences in the distribution of household-level -vulnerabilities across England and the constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Fourth, in many households, different dimensions of vulnerabilities intersect; this is especially prevalent among working-age households. The findings imply that the short- and long-term consequences of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to significantly vary by household type. Policy measures that aim to mitigate the health and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic should consider how vulnerabilities cluster and interact with one another across different household types, and how these may exacerbate already existing inequalities. Publisher PDF

his study investigates union formation and dissolution among immigrants and their descendants in four European countries with different migration histories and family patterns (United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Estonia). Although there is a growing body of literature on migrant families in Europe, there is still little comparative research on partnership dynamics among immigrants and their descendants. We apply event history analysis to pooled data from the four countries. The analysis shows a significant variation in partnership patterns across migrant groups in some countries (e.g., South Asians vs. Caribbeans in the United Kingdom) and similar partnership behaviour for some migrant groups in different countries (e.g., South Asians in the United Kingdom and immigrants from Turkey in France). Descendants of immigrants often exhibit partnership patterns that are similar to those of their parents' generation. The country context matters; specific patterns are observed for Spain and Estonia., Directorate-General for Education and Culture; European Union's Seventh FrameworkProgramme (FP7/2007-2013), Grant/AwardNumber: 320116; Estonian Research Council,Grant/Award Number: PRG71; Economic and Social Research Council, Grant/AwardNumber: ES/K007394/1

This research was supported by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/K007394/1 and carried out in the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC). This study investigates the contribution of population age structure to mortality from Covid-19 in the UK by geographical units. We project death rates at various spatial scales by applying data on age-specific fatality rates to the area's population by age and sex. Our analysis shows a significant variation in the projected death rates between the constituent countries of the UK, between its regions and within regions. First, Scotland and Wales have higher projected fatality levels from Covid-19 than England, whereas Northern Ireland has lower rate. Second, the infection fatality rates are projected to be substantially higher in small towns and rural areas than those in large urban areas. Third, our analysis shows that within urban regions there are also 'pockets' of high projected death rates. Overall, the areas with high and low fatality rates tend to cluster because of the high residential separation of different population age-groups in the UK. Our analysis also reveals that the Welsh-, Gaelic- and Cornish-speaking communities with relatively old populations are likely to experience heavy population losses if the virus spreads widely across the UK.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis research was supported by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/K007394/1 and carried out in the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC).Author DeclarationsAll relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript.YesAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data-sets are available at the ONS and NRS websites. Preprint

This study investigates spatial variation in fertility in Europe. We analyze spatial variation in total fertility rates using small-scale geographical data from twenty-one European countries for 2010, and investigate the role economic, sociocultural, and spatial factors play in regional fertility levels. We compare the performance of conventional OLS regression and multilevel modeling with that of different spatial regression models and show that the spatial approach is superior for modeling regional fertility variation. The analysis shows that fertility levels in a region are strongly related to GDP per capita and the share of divorced individuals in the region, and fertility levels in neighboring regions, supporting that all three realms of fertility determinants – economic sociocultural, and spatial – are relevant for understanding modern fertility variation. Postprint

PartnerLife is supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO, grant no. 464–13–148), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, grant no. WA 1502/6–1), and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC, grant no. ES/L01663X/1) in the Open Research Area Plus scheme. Clara Mulder's and Roselinde van der Wiel's contributions were also supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 740113; FamilyTies project). BACKGROUND Housing tenure after divorce is an important factor in individuals’ well-being. Although previous studies have examined tenure changes following divorce, only a few studies have compared patterns across countries. OBJECTIVE We study the destination tenure type of separated individuals (homeownership, social renting, private renting, other) in Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands and investigate differences by education and parenthood status. We compare the results of partnered and separated individuals. METHODS Applying Poisson regression to longitudinal data from four countries, we study individuals’ likelihood of moving and moving to different tenure types by partnership status. RESULTS Separated individuals are more likely to experience a residential change than those in a relationship in all countries. Following separation, moving to renting is more common than moving to homeownership. In the countries where the data allow distinguishing private renting from social renting, private renting is the most common outcome. The second most common destination is homeownership in Australia, and social renting in Germany and the United Kingdom. We find interesting tendencies by education and parenthood status. Low-educated individuals tend to move to social renting after separation, whereas the highly educated tend to move to homeownership. Separated parents are more likely to move to social and private renting than those who are childless (except in the United Kingdom, where childless separated people tend to move to private renting). CONTRIBUTION The findings highlight striking similarities in individuals’ post-separation residential mobility and housing across countries, despite significant differences in welfare systems and housing markets. Publisher PDF

Leo Singer was funded by the School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, as part of his PhD Studentship. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of three measures of multimorbidity among people aged 50 years or older in England. Beside the basic measure of two or more diseases within a person, we added a measure of three or more affected body systems (complex multimorbidity) and a measure of 10 or more functional limitations. We found that the three health outcomes became more prevalent between 2002 and 2015. They were more common among females than males and were becoming more common among younger age groups. While in 2002, the prevalence of basic multimorbidity overcame 50% from the 70?74 age group upwards, in 2015 it crossed the same threshold in the 65?69 age group. The distribution of multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations were stratified by the amount of household wealth. Multiple functional limitations reflected the largest differences between the most and the least affluent groups (5.9-fold in 2014/2015), followed by the measure of complex multimorbidity (2.8-fold in 2014/2015) and basic multimorbidity (1.9-fold) in 2014/2015.While age acted as a levelling factor for the wealth differences in basic multimorbidity, it had no such effect on the two other outcomes. Our study observed social polarization among multimorbid ageing population in England where complex multimorbidity and multiple functional limitations increase faster and reflect stronger inequality than basic multimorbidity. Publisher PDF

The research for this paper is part of the project ‘Partner relationships, residential relocations, and housing in the life course’ (PartnerLife). Principal investigators: Clara H. Mulder (University of Groningen), Michael Wagner (University of Cologne), and Hill Kulu (University of St Andrews). PartnerLife is supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO, grant no. 464–13–148), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, grant no. WA 1502/6–1), and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC, grant no. ES/L01663X/1) in the Open Research Area Plus scheme. BACKGROUND A growing body of literature shows that divorce and separation have negative consequences for individuals’ residential mobility and housing conditions. Yet, no study to date has examined housing trajectories of separated individuals. OBJECTIVE We investigate housing trajectories of separated men and women using longitudinal data from Britain. METHODS We apply sequence analysis to data from 18 waves of the British Household Panel Survey (1991–2008). We use time since separation as the ‘clock’ in our analysis and examine the sensitivity of the results to attrition, the length of the observation window, and the choice of the classification criteria. RESULTS We identify five types of housing trajectories among separated individuals: ‘owner stayers’, ‘owner movers’, ‘social rent stayers’, ‘social rent movers’, and ‘private renters’. Men are more likely to stay in homeownership, whereas women are more likely to stay in social housing. There is an expected educational gradient; highly educated individuals are likely to remain homeowners, whereas people with low educational level have a high propensity to stay in or to move to social housing. Overall, this study shows that some individuals can afford homeownership after separation, and that social housing offers a safety net for the most vulnerable population subgroups (low-educated women with children). However, a significant group of separated individuals is unable to afford homeownership in a country where homeownership is still the norm. CONTRIBUTION This study shows that separation has long-term consequences for individuals’ housing conditions and that post-separation housing trajectories are significantly shaped by individuals’ socio-economic characteristics. Publisher PDF

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007- 2013) under grant agreement no. 320116 for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties. Hill Kulu and Júlia Mikolai’s work was also supported by Economic and Social Research Council grant ES/K007394/1 and carried out in the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC). Objective : This article provides an introduction to a special collection on childbearing among the descendants of immigrants in Europe. We first review recent life-course research on fertility of immigrants and their descendants followed by a summary of the papers of this special collection. Finally, we discuss their contribution and future research avenues. Results : The papers of this special collection report significant heterogeneity in childbearing patterns among descendants of immigrants. Some groups have fertility levels similar to those of natives, some have lower fertility, and some exhibit significantly higher fertility. Further, polarisation characterises many descendant groups; some individuals have small families or even remain childless, whereas others have large families. Conclusions : We conclude that factors related to mainstream society, minority subculture, and minority status all shape fertility behaviour of the descendants of immigrants and that their impact varies across descendant groups. Future research should investigate whether the observed heterogeneity in childbearing patterns is likely to decline over generations or the diversity is here to stay. Publisher PDF

Objective: This paper studies postseparation fertility behavior. The aim is to investigate whether, and if so how, separation affects second birth spacing in Western European countries. Methods: This analysis makes use of rich survey data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, as well as from Finnish register data. We thus cover the behavior of a large proportion of the population of Western Europe. We also use descriptive measures, such as Kaplan¿Meier survival functions and cumulative incidence curves. In the multivariate analysis, we employ event history modeling to show how education relates to postseparation fertility behavior. Results: There are large differences in postseparation fertility behavior across European countries. For Spain and Italy, we find that only a negligibly small proportion of the population have a second child after separating from the other parent of the firstborn child. The countries with the highest proportion of second children with a new partner are the United Kingdom, Germany, and Finland. In all countries, separation after first birth leads to a sharp increase in the birth interval between first and second births. Contribution: Our study is a contribution to the demographic literature that aims at understanding birth spacing patterns in Western Europe. Furthermore, we draw attention to the role of postseparation policies in explaining country differences in fertility behavior in contemporary societies., The research leading to these results received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 320116 for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties. We also acknowledge funds from the Academy of Finland (decision number 275030 and 293103) and the German Science Foundation (KR 2855/3–1 and TR 457/7–1). This paper was presented at the Annual Conference of the Population Association of America (PAA) in San Diego in April 2015 and at the IUSSP-International Seminar “Separation, Divorce, Repartnering and Remarriage around the World” in Montreal in May 2015. We are grateful for the many valuable comments that we received at these meetings. We would particularly like to thank Elizabeth Thomson and Trude Lappegård for their insightful input. For language editing, we are grateful to Renée Lüskow and Lena Klein. Any remaining errors are ours

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007‒2013) for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties under grant agreement no. 320116. Background : Previous research has shown high total fertility among certain UK-born ethnic minorities, but the reasons behind their high fertility have remained far from clear. Some researchers attribute their elevated fertility levels to cultural factors, whereas others argue that high fertility is the consequence of their poor education and labour market prospects. Objective : This study investigates fertility among the descendants of immigrants in the UK and examines the determinants of high fertility among certain ethnic minority groups. Methods : We use data from the Understanding Society study and apply multivariate event history analysis. Results : The analysis shows, first, that relatively high second-, third-, and fourth-birth rates are responsible for the elevated total fertility among certain UK-born minorities, especially women of Pakistani and Bangladeshi origin. There is little variation in the first-birth rates among natives and immigrant descendants. Second, although fertility differences between ethnic minorities and native British women slightly decrease once religiosity and number of siblings are controlled for, significant differences persist. We conclude that cultural factors account for some elevated fertility among ethnic groups in the UK, whereas the role of education and employment seem to be only minor. Publisher PDF

PartnerLife was supported by a grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO, Grant No. 464-13-148), the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, Grant No. WA 1502/6-1), and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC, Grant No. ES/L01663X/1) in the Open Research Area Plus scheme. Clara H. Mulder’s and Christine Schnor’s contribution was also supported by the FamilyTies project, which has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No 740113). Hill Kulu’s and Júlia Mikolai’s work was also supported by Economic and Social Research Council Grant ES/K007394/1 and carried out in the ESRC Centre for Population Change (CPC). This study investigates the magnitude and persistence of elevated post-separation residential mobility (i.e. residential instability) in five countries (Australia, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK) with similar levels of economic development, but different welfare provisions and housing markets. While many studies examine residential changes related to separation in selected individual countries, only very few have compared patterns across countries. Using longitudinal data and applying Poisson regression models, we study the risk of a move of separated men and women compared with cohabiting and married individuals. We use time since separation to distinguish between moves due to separation and moves of separated individuals. Our analysis shows that separated men and women are significantly more likely to move than cohabiting and married individuals. The risk of a residential change is the highest shortly after separation, and it decreases with duration since separation. However, the magnitude of this decline varies by country. In Belgium, mobility rates remain elevated for a long period after separation, whereas in the Netherlands, post-separation residential instability appears brief, with mobility rates declining rapidly. The results suggest that housing markets are likely to shape the residential mobility of separated individuals. In countries, where mortgages are easy to access and affordable rental properties are widespread, separated individuals can rapidly adjust their housing to new family circumstances; in contrast, in countries with limited access to homeownership and small social rental markets, separated individuals experience a prolonged period of residential instability. Publisher PDF

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 320116 for the research project FamiliesAndSocieties. This study investigates formation of endogamous and exogamous marriages among immigrants and their descendants in the UK. While there is a growing literature on various aspects of ethnic minorities’ lives in Britain, their marriage patterns have been little studied and understood. We apply event-history analysis to data from the Understanding Society study and use multiple imputation to determine the type of marriage for individuals with missing information on the origin of their spouse. The analysis shows, first, significant differences among immigrants and their descendants in the likelihood of marrying within and outside of their ethnic groups. While immigrants from European countries have relatively high exogamous marriage rates, South Asians exhibit a high likelihood of marrying a partner from their own ethnic group; Caribbeans hold an intermediate position. Second, the descendants of immigrants have lower endogamous and higher exogamous marriage rates than their parents; however, for some ethnic groups, particularly for South Asians the differences across generations are small. Third, the exogamy rates are high among ethnic minority women and men with better English skills, individuals who are less religious and those who are older at first marriage. Fourth, highly-educated native British men have an elevated likelihood of forming an inter-ethnic marriage; exogamous marriages are also formed at later ages among the native men and women. Publisher PDF

SF’s research was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J500094/1) through the North West Doctoral Training Centre Social Statistics pathway (PhD project: ’Health, Mortality and Partnership Status: Protection or Selection’). He also held an Advanced Quantitative Methods (AQM) enhanced stipend. Background: This paper examines cause-specific mortality by partnership status. Although non-marital cohabitation has spread rapidly in industrialised countries, only a few studies have investigated mortality by partnership status and no recent study has investigated cause-specific mortality by partnership status. Methods: We use data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study and apply competing risks survival models. Results: The simultaneous analysis shows that married individuals have lower mortality than non-married from circulatory, respiratory, digestive, alcohol and accident related causes of deaths, but not from cancer. The analysis by partnership status reveals that once we distinguish premarital and postmarital cohabitants from other non-married groups, the differences between partnered and non-partnered individuals become even more pronounced for all causes of death; this is largely due to similar cause-specific mortality levels between married and cohabiting individuals. Conclusions: With declining marriage rates and the spread of cohabitation and separation, a distinction between partnered and non-partnered individuals is critical to understanding whether and how having a partner shapes the individuals’ health behaviour and mortality. The cause-specific analysis supports both the importance of selection into partnership and the protective effect of living with someone together. Postprint

Sebastian Franke’s research was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council [ES/J500094/1] through the North West Doctoral Training Centre Social Statistics pathway (Ph.D. project: “Health, Mortality and Partnership Status: Protection or Selection”). The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information and User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). This paper investigates the relationship between partnership status and mortality in England and Wales. Using data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS LS) for the period between 2001 and 2011, we examine whether married people have lower mortality levels than unmarried individuals; whether individuals who cohabit have mortality levels similar to those of married or single persons; and how much the fact that married couples live with someone rather than alone explains their low mortality. Our analysis shows first that married individuals have lower mortality than unmarried persons. Second, men and women in pre-marital unions exhibit mortality levels similar to those of married men and women, whereas mortality levels are elevated for post-marital cohabitants. Third, controlling for household size and the presence of children reduces mortality differences between married and unmarried non-partnered individuals, but significant differences persist. The study supports both protection and selection theory. The increase in mortality differences by age group between never-married cohabitants and married couples is likely a sign of the long-term accumulation of health and wealth benefits of marriage. Similar mortality levels of cohabiting and married couples at younger ages suggest that healthier individuals are more likely to find a partner. Postprint

Rebecca Allan's research was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (PhD project: “Residential Context, Health and Mortality: The Effect of Context, Composition or Selective Migrations?”). Previous research shows significant health and mortality variations by residential context. Numerous studies report better health and lower mortality among rural populations in comparison to urban residents, whereas other research shows the opposite, with poor health and high mortality in rural areas. This study investigates health variations in England by residential contexts and the causes of such differences. Further, it examines the sensitivity of results to different rural-urban classifications. Applying logistic regression models to individual-level data from the 2001 UK census we demonstrate significant health variation by residential context. A clear urban-rural positive health gradient is apparent, with levels of ill health increasing parallel to levels of urbanisation. Briefly, people living in rural areas have better health than those living in cities and other urban contexts. However, the capital city (London) provides an exception to the gradient, with its inhabitants having better health than anticipated. Once we control for individual socio-demographic characteristics, including occupational status and educational level, the urban-rural health variations are reduced, but significant differences still persist. Most notably, Outer London residents have health expectations similar to those residing in the most rural locations. Clearly, our results support the existence of a positive urban-rural health gradient, with the exception of a protective "capital city" effect. These findings persist regardless of the precise urban-rural classification used. Finally we show that, having accounted for composition and the rural-urban context, there still remains a North-South divide in health outcomes. Postprint

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionEuropean countries are witnessing increases in immigration streams and the ethnic heterogeneity of their populations (Castles and Miller 2009). A large body of literature has examined various aspects of immigrants' lives in Europe, including their employment and education (Adsera and Chiswick 2007; Kogan 2007; Rebhun 2010; Rendall et al. 2010), health and mortality (Sole-Auro and Crimmins 2008; Wengler 2011; Hannemann 2012), residential and housing patterns (Musterd 2005; Arbaci 2008), legal status and citizenship (Seifert 1997; Baubock 2003; Howard 2005), and linguistic, cultural, and religious diversity (Foner and Alba 2008; Gungor, Fleischmann, and Phalet 2011). The recent literature has also exhibited an increasing interest in the study of family dynamics and patterns among immigrants and their descendants. One stream of research examines the formation and dissolution of exogamous marriages in Europe, with the aim of deepening our understanding of the factors that influence the spread and stability of mixed marriages and their role in immigrant integration (Coleman 1994; Gonzalez-Ferrer 2006; Kalmijn and Tubergen 2006; Dribe and Lundh 2012; Milewski and Kulu 2014). Another stream investigates fertility dynamics among immigrants and their descendants (Andersson 2004; Toulemon 2004; Milewski 2007; Kulu and Milewski 2007; Coleman and Dubuc 2010; Goldscheider, Goldscheider, and Bernhardt 2011).The aim of the current paper is to investigate the union formation and dissolution of immigrants and their descendants in the UK and to compare their patterns to those of the 'native' British population.3 We extend the previous literature in the following ways. First, we study various partnership transitions among immigrants and their descendants, including formation and dissolution of cohabitations and marriages. Further, we study the formation and dissolution of both the first and second unions. We thus move beyond the 'one-life-event-at-a-time' approach, which is dominant in the literature on migrant families. We believe that the study of several partnership events over the life course provides us with much richer information about the opportunities and constraints that migrants face than does an analysis of only one (or of the first) marriage of the migrants.Second, we examine family trajectories among the descendants of migrants, whose share has significantly increased in the last decades in the UK and other European countries (Sobotka and Toulemon 2008). Research has shown that the fate of the 'second generation' is not as rosy as we may wish. Their educational qualifications often remain below those of the majority population, and their labour market performance is often poor (Fassmann 1997; Alba 2005; Meurs, Pailhe, and Simon 2006; Aparicio 2007; Brinbaum and Cebolla-Boado 2007; Van Niekerk 2007; Kristen, Reimer, and Kogan 2008; Aeberhardt et al. 2010; Fibbi, Lerch, and Wanner 2007). The current study provides information on the demographic behaviour of important population subgroups in the UK and will improve our understanding of how various factors shape the fate of the 'second generation' in the European context. This information will be valuable for the development of future integration policies.Third, to our knowledge, this is the first study on union formation among immigrants and ethnic minorities in the UK that explicitly compares their partnership trajectories to those of the native population from the longitudinal and life course perspectives. Although the dynamics of mixed marriages and fertility of ethnic minorities in Britain have been examined (Coleman 1994; Coleman and Dubuc 2010; Feng et al. 2012; Hampshire, Blell, and Simpson 2012), the topics of union formation and dissolution, and particularly the rise of cohabitation, have not been covered in the recent literature (for earlier cross-sectional research, see Berrington 1994; 1996). …

This research was possible through funding by the Economic and Social Research Council (ES/J500094/1; “Mortality among Immigrants and their Descendants in England and Wales”) and North West Doctoral Training Centre. Despite researchers regularly observing a migrant mortality advantage in high‐income destination countries, it remains unclear whether empirically observed low mortality among foreign‐born relative to natives is genuine or a result of censoring and selection biases inherent in the remigration of foreign‐born individuals. Our aim is to determine whether the main mode of selection bias, the “salmon bias effect” (remigration triggered by poor health), can account for this low foreign‐born mortality. We use the largest longitudinal resource in the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study, to fit discrete‐time survival models and observe which foreign‐born populations experience a migrant mortality advantage and/or salmon bias effect. For foreign‐born groups in which we observe both, we correct their mortality (using an indirect method) to see if the salmon bias can explain the observed mortality advantage. Importantly, we demonstrate that for many foreign‐born groups a mortality advantage exists in the absence of the salmon bias effect. Furthermore, in cases which we observe a mortality advantage and salmon bias (males and females from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, and the Caribbean), the latter cannot sufficiently “explain away” the former. Taken together with previous findings on censoring bias in the United Kingdom and the wider international literature on censoring and selection biases, it becomes clear that remigration biases alone cannot sufficiently explain the migrant mortality advantage. Postprint

Funding: This paper is part of a project that has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Agreement No. 834103). This research was also supported by the Economic and Social Research Council Centre for Population Change Connecting Generations research programme, grant number ES/W002116/1. This study analyses the effect of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the future of Ukraine's population. We conduct a series of population projections with different assumptions on the proportion of refugees that may return to Ukraine. Our projections show that if past demographic trends continue, Ukraine's population is projected to decline by one-sixth over the next two decades and become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments: continued very low fertility and large-scale emigration at the turn of the century. With war casualties and a large portion of the Ukrainian population seeking safety abroad from the conflict, the country's population is projected to decline by one-third. The decline would be even larger among the working-age population and children. Russia's invasion has not only led to immense human and economic costs in Ukraine in the present but also carries long-term demographic repercussions. Publisher PDF