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Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) shows remarkable variation in incidence that is not fully explained by known lifestyle and environmental risk factors. It has been speculated that an unknown exogenous exposure(s) could be responsible. Here we combine the fields of mutational signature analysis with cancer epidemiology to study 552 ESCC genomes from eight countries with varying incidence rates. Mutational profiles were similar across all countries studied. Associations between specific mutational signatures and ESCC risk factors were identified for tobacco, alcohol, opium and germline variants, with modest impacts on mutation burden. We find no evidence of a mutational signature indicative of an exogenous exposure capable of explaining differences in ESCC incidence. Apolipoprotein B mRNA-editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like (APOBEC)-associated mutational signatures single-base substitution (SBS)2 and SBS13 were present in 88% and 91% of cases, respectively, and accounted for 25% of the mutation burden on average, indicating that APOBEC activation is a crucial step in ESCC tumor development.

Cancer risk is determined by a complex interplay of environmental and heritable factors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) provide a personalized genetic susceptibility profile that may be leveraged for disease prediction. Using data from the UK Biobank (413,753 individuals; 22,755 incident cancer cases), we quantify the added predictive value of integrating cancer-specific PRS with family history and modifiable risk factors for 16 cancers. We show that incorporating PRS measurably improves prediction accuracy for most cancers, but the magnitude of this improvement varies substantially. We also demonstrate that stratifying on levels of PRS identifies significantly divergent 5-year risk trajectories after accounting for family history and modifiable risk factors. At the population level, the top 20% of the PRS distribution accounts for 4.0% to 30.3% of incident cancer cases, exceeding the impact of many lifestyle-related factors. In summary, this study illustrates the potential for improving cancer risk assessment by integrating genetic risk scores., Predicting cancer risk requires large datasets and sophisticated models. Here the authors integrate polygenic risk scores and modifiable risk factors for multiple cancers in the UK Biobank, improving general risk prediction and distinguishing cases where genetic or lifestyle factors have stronger associations.

ProblemIn 2009 the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death suggested only 50% of patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) receive good standards of care. In response National Health Service (NHS) England mandated the use of electronic AKI alerts within secondary care. However, we recognised AKI is not just a secondary care problem, where primary care has a crucial role to play in prevention, early detection and management as well as post-AKI care.MethodsAKI alerts were implemented in primary and secondary care services for a population of 480 000. Comparisons were made in AKI incidence, peak creatinine following AKI and renal recovery in the years before and after using Byar’s approximation (95% CI).InterventionA complex quality improvement initiative was implemented based on the design and integration of an AKI alerting system within laboratory information management systems for primary and secondary care, with an affixed URL for clinicians to access a care bundle of AKI guidelines on safe prescribing, patient advice and early contact with nephrology.ResultsThe intervention was associated with an 8% increase in creatinine testing (n=32 563). Hospital acquired AKI detection increased by 6%, while community acquired AKI detection increased by 3% and AKI stage 3 detected in primary care fell by 14%. The intervention overall had no effect on AKI severity but did improve follow-up testing and renal recovery. Importantly hospital AKI 3 recoveries improved by 22%. In a small number of AKI cases, the algorithm did not produce an alert resulting in a reduction in follow-up testing compared with preintervention levels.ConclusionThe introduction of AKI alerts in primary and secondary care, in conjunction with access to an AKI care bundle, was associated with higher rates of repeat blood sampling, AKI detection and renal recovery. Validating accuracy of alerts is required to avoid patient harm.

Insulin‐like growth factor‐I (IGF‐I) and testosterone have been implicated in prostate cancer aetiology. Using data from a large prospective full‐cohort with standardised assays and repeat blood measurements, and genetic data from an international consortium, we investigated the associations of circulating IGF‐I, sex hormone‐binding globulin (SHBG), and total and calculated free testosterone concentrations with prostate cancer incidence and mortality. For prospective analyses, risk was estimated using multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression in 199 698 male UK Biobank participants. Hazard ratios (HRs) were corrected for regression dilution bias using repeat hormone measurements from a subsample. Two‐sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of IGF‐I and risk used genetic instruments identified from UK Biobank men and genetic outcome data from the PRACTICAL consortium (79 148 cases and 61 106 controls). We used cis‐ and all (cis and trans) SNP MR approaches. A total of 5402 men were diagnosed with and 295 died from prostate cancer (mean follow‐up 6.9 years). Higher circulating IGF‐I was associated with elevated prostate cancer diagnosis (HR per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.09, 95% CI 1.05‐1.12) and mortality (HR per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.15, 1.02‐1.29). MR analyses also supported the role of IGF‐I in prostate cancer diagnosis (cis‐MR odds ratio per 5 nmol/L increment = 1.34, 1.07‐1.68). In observational analyses, higher free testosterone was associated with a higher risk of prostate cancer (HR per 50 pmol/L increment = 1.10, 1.05‐1.15). Higher SHBG was associated with a lower risk (HR per 10 nmol/L increment = 0.95, 0.94‐0.97), neither was associated with prostate cancer mortality. Total testosterone was not associated with prostate cancer. These findings implicate IGF‐I and free testosterone in prostate cancer development and/or progression., What's new? Testosterone, insulin‐like growth factor‐I (IGF‐I), and sex hormone‐binding globulin (SHBG) all have been associated with prostate‐cancer risk. In this large, prospective study, the authors analyzed how these circulating hormones might impact mortality as well as risk. They found that men with higher IGF‐I had a higher risk of both prostate‐cancer diagnosis and mortality. Men with higher free testosterone had an increased risk of prostate cancer, while men with higher SHBG had a decreased risk. These results support the roles of IGF‐I and testosterone in prostate cancer development.

Background: Epidemiologic studies evaluating associations between sex steroid hormones and colorectal cancer risk have yielded inconsistent results. To elucidate the role of circulating levels of testosterone, and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) in colorectal cancer risk, we conducted observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Methods: The observational analyses included 333,530 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank with testosterone and SHBG measured. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. For MR analyses, genetic variants robustly associated with hormone levels were identified and their association with colorectal cancer (42,866 cases/42,752 controls) was examined using two-sample MR. Results: In the observational analysis, there was little evidence that circulating levels of total testosterone were associated with colorectal cancer risk; the MR analyses showed a greater risk for women (OR per 1-SD = 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01–1.17), although pleiotropy may have biased this result. Higher SHBG concentrations were associated with greater colorectal cancer risk for women (HR per 1-SD = 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05–1.29), but was unsupported by the MR analysis. There was little evidence of associations between free testosterone and colorectal cancer in observational and MR analyses. Conclusions: Circulating concentrations of sex hormones are unlikely to be causally associated with colorectal cancer. Additional experimental studies are required to better understand the possible role of androgens in colorectal cancer development. Impact: Our results from large-scale analyses provide little evidence for sex hormone pathways playing a causal role in colorectal cancer development. See related commentary by Hang and Shen, p. 1302

Background Whether elevated blood pressure (BP) is a modifiable risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF) is not established. We tested (1) whether the association between BP and risk of AF is causal, (2) whether it varies according to individual’s genetic susceptibility for AF, and (3) the extent to which specific BP-lowering drugs are expected to reduce this risk. Methods First, causality of association was assessed through two-sample Mendelian randomization, using data from two independent genome-wide association studies that included a population of one million Europeans in total. Second, the UK Biobank data of 329,237 participants at baseline was used to study the effect of BP on AF according to genetic susceptibility of developing AF. Third, a possible treatment effect with major BP-lowering drug classes on AF risk was predicted through genetic variants in genes encode the therapeutic targets of each drug class. Estimated drug effects were compared with effects on incident coronary heart disease, for which direct trial evidence exists. Results The two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis indicated that, on average, exposure to a higher systolic BP increased the risk of AF by 19% (odds ratio per each 10-mmHg [OR] 1.19 [1.12 to 1.27]). This association was replicated in the UK biobank using individual participant data. However, in a further genetic risk-stratified analysis, there was evidence for a linear gradient in the relative effects of systolic BP on AF; while there was no conclusive evidence of an effect in those with low genetic risk, a strong effect was observed among those with high genetic susceptibility for AF. The comparison of predicted treatment effects using genetic proxies for three main drug classes (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta-blockers, and calcium channel blockers) suggested similar average effects for the prevention of atrial fibrillation and coronary heart disease. Conclusions The effect of elevated BP on the risk of AF is likely to be causal, suggesting that BP-lowering treatment may be effective in AF prevention. However, average effects masked clinically important variations, with a more pronounced effect in individuals with high genetic susceptibility risk for AF.

Background Higher levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, uncertainty exists on whether the inverse relationship between PA and incidence of CVD is greater at the highest levels of PA. Past studies have mostly relied on self-reported evidence from questionnaire-based PA, which is crude and cannot capture all PA undertaken. We investigated the association between accelerometer-measured moderate, vigorous, and total PA and incident CVD. Methods and findings We obtained accelerometer-measured moderate-intensity and vigorous-intensity physical activities and total volume of PA, over a 7-day period in 2013–2015, for 90,211 participants without prior or concurrent CVD in the UK Biobank cohort. Participants in the lowest category of total PA smoked more, had higher body mass index and C-reactive protein, and were diagnosed with hypertension. PA was associated with 3,617 incident CVD cases during 440,004 person-years of follow-up (median (interquartile range [IQR]): 5.2 (1.2) years) using Cox regression models. We found a linear dose–response relationship for PA, whether measured as moderate-intensity, vigorous-intensity, or as total volume, with risk of incident of CVD. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for increasing quarters of the PA distribution relative to the lowest fourth were for moderate-intensity PA: 0.71 (0.65, 0.77), 0.59 (0.54, 0.65), and 0.46 (0.41, 0.51); for vigorous-intensity PA: 0.70 (0.64, 0.77), 0.54 (0.49,0.59), and 0.41 (0.37,0.46); and for total volume of PA: 0.73 (0.67, 0.79), 0.63 (0.57, 0.69), and 0.47 (0.43, 0.52). We took account of potential confounders but unmeasured confounding remains a possibility, and while removal of early deaths did not affect the estimated HRs, we cannot completely dismiss the likelihood that reverse causality has contributed to the findings. Another possible limitation of this work is the quantification of PA intensity-levels based on methods validated in relatively small studies. Conclusions In this study, we found no evidence of a threshold for the inverse association between objectively measured moderate, vigorous, and total PA with CVD. Our findings suggest that PA is not only associated with lower risk for of CVD, but the greatest benefit is seen for those who are active at the highest level., Author summary Why was this study done? There is an inverse association between self-reported physical activity (PA) and occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is uncertainty about the strength of this association as self-reported questionnaires are subject to differential measurement error. Accelerometers are small lightweight motion sensors that are typically worn on the wrist. They more reliably measure PA status and thus could improve understanding of associations with CVD. What did the researchers do and find? We used data from 90,211 UK Biobank participants without prior CVD who agreed to wear an accelerometer to measure their PA status over 7 days. Higher levels of PA were associated with lower risk for CVD that was similar across total, moderate- and vigorous-intensity PA. What do these findings mean? Our findings suggest that individuals who engage in higher levels of PA have lower risk for CVD throughout the range of PA measured. The lowest risk for CVD in the UK Biobank cohort is seen at the highest level of PA, whether total, moderate-intensity, or vigorous-intensity.

Increasing evidence points to a role for inflammation in lung carcinogenesis. A small number of circulating inflammatory proteins have been identified as showing elevated levels prior to lung cancer diagnosis, indicating the potential for prospective circulating protein concentration as a marker of early carcinogenesis. To identify novel markers of lung cancer risk, we measured a panel of 92 circulating inflammatory proteins in 648 prediagnostic blood samples from two prospective cohorts in Italy and Norway (women only). To preserve the comparability of results and protect against confounding factors, the main statistical analyses were conducted in women from both studies, with replication sought in men (Italian participants). Univariate and penalized regression models revealed for the first time higher blood levels of CDCP1 protein in cases that went on to develop lung cancer compared with controls, irrespective of time to diagnosis, smoking habits, and gender. This association was validated in an additional 450 samples. Associations were stronger for future cases of adenocarcinoma where CDCP1 showed better explanatory performance. Integrative analyses combining gene expression and protein levels of CDCP1 measured in the same individuals suggested a link between CDCP1 and the expression of transcripts of LRRN3 and SEM1. Enrichment analyses indicated a potential role for CDCP1 in pathways related to cell adhesion and mobility, such as the WNT/β-catenin pathway. Overall, this study identifies lung cancer–related dysregulation of CDCP1 expression years before diagnosis. Significance: Prospective proteomics analyses reveal an association between increased levels of circulating CDCP1 and lung carcinogenesis irrespective of smoking and years before diagnosis, and integrating gene expression indicates potential underlying mechanisms. See related commentary by Itzstein et al., p. 3441.

Systemic inflammation markers have been linked to increased cancer risk and mortality in a number of studies. However, few studies have estimated pre-diagnostic associations of systemic inflammation markers and cancer risk. Such markers could serve as biomarkers of cancer risk and aid in earlier identification of the disease. This study estimated associations between pre-diagnostic systemic inflammation markers and cancer risk in the prospective UK Biobank cohort of approximately 440,000 participants recruited between 2006 and 2010. We assessed associations between four immune-related markers based on blood cell counts: systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), and risk for 17 cancer sites by estimating hazard ratios (HR) using flexible parametric survival models. We observed positive associations with risk for seven out of 17 cancers with SII, NLR, PLR, and negative associations with LMR. The strongest associations were observed for SII for colorectal and lung cancer risk, with associations increasing in magnitude for cases diagnosed within one year of recruitment. For instance, the HR for colorectal cancer per standard deviation increment in SII was estimated at 1.09 (95% CI 1.02–1.16) in blood drawn five years prior to diagnosis and 1.50 (95% CI 1.24–1.80) in blood drawn one month prior to diagnosis. We observed associations between systemic inflammation markers and risk for several cancers. The increase in risk the last year prior to diagnosis may reflect a systemic immune response to an already present, yet clinically undetected cancer. Blood cell ratios could serve as biomarkers of cancer incidence risk with potential for early identification of disease in the last year prior to clinical diagnosis. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00752-6.

Circulating insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) is positively associated with the risks of colorectal, breast, and prostate cancer, but evidence for other less common cancers is limited. In this study, we investigated associations between serum IGF-I concentrations and incidence of less common cancers in the UK Biobank study. To enable comparison of effect estimates, and as positive controls, both common and less common cancer sites (total 30) were included in an outcome-wide analysis. Data from 394,388 cancer-free participants in the UK Biobank study were analyzed. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine associations between baseline serum IGF-I concentrations and cancer incidence, using repeated IGF-I measurements from up to 14,149 participants to correct for regression dilution bias. Higher IGF-I concentration was associated with increased risks of thyroid cancer [HR per 5 nmol/L higher concentration 1.18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01–1.37] in addition to colorectal (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03–1.13), breast (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07–1.15), and prostate cancer (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.05–1.12), and reduced risks of ovarian and liver cancer. Mean follow-up was 6.9 years and the possibility that the observed associations may be influenced by reverse causality bias cannot be excluded. Additional nominally significant associations with malignant melanoma, multiple myeloma, oral cancer, and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma did not survive correction for multiple testing. Studies with longer follow-up and pooled analyses are needed to further assess how broad the role of IGF-I is in cancer development. Significance: The results from this outcome-wide analysis are consistent with a positive association of IGF-I with cancers at several sites.

Background Epidemiological evidence supports a positive association between circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) concentrations and breast cancer risk, but both the magnitude and causality of this relationship are uncertain. We conducted observational analyses with adjustment for regression dilution bias, and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses allowed for causal inference. Patients and methods We investigated the associations between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and incident breast cancer risk in 206 263 women in the UK Biobank. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. HRs were corrected for regression dilution using repeat IGF-1 measures available in a subsample of 6711 women. For the MR analyses, genetic variants associated with circulating IGF-1 and IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) levels were identified and their association with breast cancer was examined with two-sample MR methods using genome-wide data from 122 977 cases and 105 974 controls. Results In the UK Biobank, after a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 4360 incident breast cancer cases occurred. In the multivariable-adjusted models corrected for regression dilution, higher IGF-1 concentrations were associated with a greater risk of breast cancer (HR per 5 nmol/l increment of IGF-1 = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.07–1.16). Similar positive associations were found by follow-up time, menopausal status, body mass index, and other risk factors. In the MR analyses, a 5 nmol/l increment in genetically-predicted IGF-1 concentration was associated with a greater breast cancer risk (odds ratio = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01–1.10; P = 0.02), with a similar effect estimate for estrogen-positive (ER+) tumours, but no effect found for estrogen-negative (ER−) tumours. Genetically-predicted IGFBP-3 concentrations were not associated with breast cancer risk (odds ratio per 1-standard deviation increment = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.97–1.04; P = 0.98). Conclusion Our results support a probable causal relationship between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer, suggesting that interventions targeting the IGF pathway may be beneficial in preventing breast tumorigenesis., Highlights • We conducted complementary observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate the role of circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) in breast cancer development • Consistent positive associations were found between circulating IGF-1 and breast cancer risk for both analyses • These results support a probable causal role of the IGF pathway in breast cancer development

ObjectiveThe impact of heart failure (HF) on perceived and objectively measured levels of physical activity (PA) can inform risk stratification and treatment recommendation. We aimed to compare self-reported and objectively measured PA levels in a large sample of participants with and without HF.MethodsA validated PA questionnaire was used to estimate self-reported weekly PA among 1600 participants with HF and 387 580 participants without HF. Accelerometer data were studied in 596 participants with HF and 96 105 participants without HF for a period of 7 days. Using multivariable linear regression models, we compared the PA levels between participants with HF and without HF, focusing on both the average daily PA levels and the intensity of PAs throughout the day.ResultsPA levels were significantly lower in participants with HF using both self-report (excess metabolic equivalent of task hours per week of 26.5 (95% CI 24.7 to 28.4) vs 34.7 (95% CI 34.5 to 34.9), respectively (pConclusionPerceived and objectively recorded PA levels of patients with chronic HF are significantly lower than those of individuals without HF. This difference is continuous throughout the different hours of the day, with individuals with HF being on average 16% less active than individuals without HF. In patients with HF, increases in everyday activity may be a potential alternative to structured exercise programmes.

BackgroundEpidemiological evidence supports a positive association between circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) concentrations and breast cancer risk, but both the magnitude and causality of this relationship are uncertain. We conducted observational analyses with adjustment for regression dilution bias, and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to allow causal inference.Patients and methodsWe investigated the associations between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and incident breast cancer risk in 206,263 women in the UK Biobank. Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. HRs were corrected for regression dilution using repeat IGF-1 measures available in a subsample of 6,711 women. For the MR analyses, genetic variants associated with circulating IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 levels were identified and their association with breast cancer was examined with two-sample MR methods using genome-wide data from 122,977 cases and 105,974 controls.ResultsIn the UK Biobank, after a median follow-up of 7.1 years, 4,360 incident breast cancer cases occurred. In the multivariable-adjusted models corrected for regression dilution, higher IGF-1 concentrations were associated with a greater risk of breast cancer (HR per 5 nmol/L increment of IGF-1=1.11, 95%CI=1.07-1.16). Similar positive associations were found by follow-up time, menopausal status, body mass index, and other risk factors. In the MR analyses, a 5 nmol/L increment in genetically-predicted IGF-1 concentration was associated with greater breast cancer risk (odds ratio [OR]=1.05, 95%CI=1.01-1.10; Pvalue=0.02), with a similar effect estimate for estrogen positive (ER+) tumors, but no effect found for estrogen negative (ER-) tumors. Genetically-predicted IGFBP-3 concentrations were not associated with breast cancer risk (OR per 1-SD increment=1.00, 95%CI=0.97-1.04; Pvalue=0.98).ConclusionOur results support a probable causal relationship between circulating IGF-1 concentrations and breast cancer, suggesting that interventions targeting the IGF pathway may be beneficial in preventing breast tumorigenesis.DisclaimerWhere authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer / World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer / World Health Organization.

Importance Modifiable risk factors for valvular heart disease remain largely unknown, which limits prevention and treatment. Objective To assess the association between systolic blood pressure (BP) and major valvular heart disease. Design, Setting, and Participants A UK Biobank population-based cohort of 502 602 men and women aged 40 to 96 years at baseline was evaluated through mendelian randomization using individual participant data. Inclusion criteria were valid genetic data and BP measurements. The participants were recruited between 2006 and 2010; data analysis was performed from June 2018 to January 2019. Exposures Systolic BP was measured during clinical assessment and instruments for the genetic effect of high BP were identified from variants that were independently (linkage disequilibrium threshold of r2 Main Outcomes and Measures Incident aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, and mitral regurgitation, individually and combined. Cases were largely based on hospital records linked to the UK Biobank with International Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, Tenth Revision codes. Results Of the 502 602 individuals screened, 329 237 participants (177 741 [53.99%] women; mean [SD] age, 56.93 [7.99] years) had valid genetic data and BP measurements; of this cohort, 3570 individuals (1.08%) had a diagnosis of valvular heart disease (aortic stenosis, 1491 [0.45%]; aortic regurgitation, 634 [0.19%]; and mitral regurgitation, 1736 [0.53%]). Each genetically associated 20–mm Hg increment in systolic BP was associated with an increased risk of aortic stenosis (odds ratio [OR], 3.26; 95% CI, 1.50-7.10), aortic regurgitation (OR, 2.59; 95% CI, 0.75-8.92), and mitral regurgitation (OR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.07-4.47), with no evidence for heterogeneity by type of valvular heart disease (P = .90). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the association. Conclusions and Relevance Lifetime exposure to elevated systolic BP appears to be associated with an increased risk of major valvular heart disease.

Prospective studies have observed differences in risks for several health outcomes when comparing meat-eaters and vegetarians, but the mechanisms underlying these differences remain uncertain. Identifying genetic factors related to vegetarianism may be valuable for assessing causality. We report a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of vegetarianism in 367,198 participants from UK Biobank. We identified one locus, rs10189138, near the vaccinia related kinase 2 (VRK2) gene, significantly associated with vegetarianism (β=0.153, p=3x10-8). The associations between rs10189138 and 40 traits were calculated, and the rs10189138 T allele (MAF=0.12) was found to be significantly associated with greater height, after controlling the false discovery rate (FDR). Correlations between genetically predicted vegetarianism and 855 other genetically predicted traits were also calculated, and vegetarianism had significant positive genetic correlations with fluid intelligence and age at menarche, after controlling the FDR. Future research on an independent sample is needed to see if this GWAS result can be replicated.

Objectives To describe the cross-sectional association between musculoskeletal pain at multiple sites and physical work capacity (PWC) and objectively measured physical activity (PA). Design Observational study. Methods Data from a subsample of the UK Biobank were utilised (n = 9856; mean age 58.5 years, mean body mass index 30.2 kg/m2, 62% female). PWC was measured by a bicycle ergometer and PA by an accelerometer. Pain experienced in hip, knee, back and neck/shoulder was collected by questionnaire. Linear regression modelling was used with adjustment for potential confounders to estimate the association between pain and PWC and PA. Results Increase in number of painful sites was associated with lower PWC, moderate and vigorous PA and increased low intensity PA in a dose-response relationship (all p-values for trend ≤0.001) before and after adjustment for confounders. In site specific analyses, hip pain was associated with an increased low intensity PA (β 52.8 min/week, 95% CI 2.3–103.2) and reduced moderate PA (β −50.1 min/week, 95% CI −98.5 to −1.8). Knee pain was only associated with vigorous PA (β −5.7 min/week, 95% CI −10.0 to −1.3). Pain at neck/shoulder pain and back were not independently associated with PWC and PA. Conclusions Greater number of painful sites is consistently associated with poorer PWC, increased low intensity PA and reduced moderate to vigorous PA. Clinicians should address the critical role of being physically active in managing chronic musculoskeletal pain and interventions targeting musculoskeletal pain may be needed to increase PA levels.

IMPORTANCE: There is an urgent need to improve lung cancer risk assessment because current screening criteria miss a large proportion of cases. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether a lung cancer risk prediction model based on a panel of selected circulating protein biomarkers can outperform a traditional risk prediction model and current US screening criteria. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prediagnostic samples from 108 ever-smoking patients with lung cancer diagnosed within 1 year after blood collection and samples from 216 smoking-matched controls from the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) cohort were used to develop a biomarker risk score based on 4 proteins (cancer antigen 125 [CA125], carcinoembryonic antigen [CEA], cytokeratin-19 fragment [CYFRA 21-1], and the precursor form of surfactant protein B [Pro-SFTPB]). The biomarker score was subsequently validated blindly using absolute risk estimates among 63 ever-smoking patients with lung cancer diagnosed within 1 year after blood collection and 90 matched controls from 2 large European population-based cohorts, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Model validity in discriminating between future lung cancer cases and controls. Discrimination estimates were weighted to reflect the background populations of EPIC and NSHDS validation studies (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve [AUC], sensitivity, and specificity). RESULTS: In the validation study of 63 ever-smoking patients with lung cancer and 90 matched controls (mean [SD] age, 57.7 [8.7] years; 68.6% men) from EPIC and NSHDS, an integrated risk prediction model that combined smoking exposure with the biomarker score yielded an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.76-0.90) compared with 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.82) for a model based on smoking exposure alone (P = .003 for difference in AUC). At an overall specificity of 0.83, based on the US Preventive Services Task Force screening criteria, the sensitivity of the integrated risk prediction (biomarker) model was 0.63 compared with 0.43 for the smoking model. Conversely, at an overall sensitivity of 0.42, based on the US Preventive Services Task Force screening criteria, the integrated risk prediction model yielded a specificity of 0.95 compared with 0.86 for the smoking model. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study provided a proof of principle in showing that a panel of circulating protein biomarkers may improve lung cancer risk assessment and may be used to define eligibility for computed tomography screening.

Purpose: About 60% of ovarian cancers are diagnosed at late stage, when 5-year survival is less than 30% in contrast to 90% for local disease. This has prompted search for early detection biomarkers. For initial testing, specimens taken months or years before ovarian cancer diagnosis are the best source of information to evaluate early detection biomarkers. Here we evaluate the most promising ovarian cancer screening biomarkers in prospectively collected samples from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Experimental Design: We measured CA125, HE4, CA72.4, and CA15.3 in 810 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 1,939 controls. We calculated the sensitivity at 95% and 98% specificity as well as area under the receiver operator curve (C-statistic) for each marker individually and in combination. In addition, we evaluated marker performance by stage at diagnosis and time between blood draw and diagnosis. Results: We observed the best discrimination between cases and controls within 6 months of diagnosis for CA125 (C-statistic = 0.92), then HE4 (0.84), CA72.4 (0.77), and CA15.3 (0.73). Marker performance declined with longer time between blood draw and diagnosis and for earlier staged disease. However, assessment of discriminatory ability at early stage was limited by small numbers. Combinations of markers performed modestly, but significantly better than any single marker. Conclusions: CA125 remains the single best marker for the early detection of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer, but can be slightly improved by combining with other markers. Identifying novel markers for ovarian cancer will require studies including larger numbers of early-stage cases. Clin Cancer Res; 22(18); 4664–75. ©2016 AACR. See related commentary by Skates, p. 4542