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This paper argues for a rethinking of disease preparedness that puts incertitude and the politics of knowledge at the centre. Through examining the experiences of Ebola, Nipah, cholera and COVID-19 across multiple settings, the limitations of current approaches are highlighted. Conventional approaches assume a controllable, predictable future, which is responded to by a range of standard interventions. Such emergency preparedness planning approaches assume risk - where future outcomes can be predicted - and fail to address uncertainty, ambiguity and ignorance - where outcomes or their probabilities are unknown. Through examining the experiences of outbreak planning and response across the four cases, the paper argues for an approach that highlights the politics of knowledge, the constructions of time and space, the requirements for institutions and administrations and the challenges of ethics and justice. Embracing incertitude in disease preparedness responses therefore means making contextual social, political and cultural dimensions central.

More than one billion people are affected by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) and many of these diseases are preventable. While the grouping of these conditions as NTDs has generated vast mapping, mass drug administration and surveillance programmes, there is growing evidence of gaps and weaknesses in purely biomedical approaches, and the need for responses that also recognise the social determinants of health. In order to unpack the social and political determinants of NTDs, it is important to view the problem from a social science perspective. Given this background, the Social Sciences for Severe Stigmatizing Skin Diseases (5S) Foundation has recently been established by the Centre for Global Health Research at Brighton and Sussex Medical School. The broad aim of the 5S Foundation is to incorporate social science perspectives in understanding and addressing the problems around three NTDs, namely, podoconiosis, mycetoma and scabies. This protocol paper sets out the aims and approaches of the 5S Foundation while activities such as research, public engagement, training and capacity building get underway.

The securitization of health is not a new phenomenon. However, global responses to the 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa reveal the extent to which epidemic preparedness and response is now s...

International audience; This article shares findings on COVID-19 in Africa across 2020 to examine concepts and practices of epidemic preparedness and response. Amidst uncertainties about the trajectory of COVID-19, the stages of emergency response emerge in practice as interconnected. We illustrate how complex dynamics manifest as diverse actors interpret and modify approaches according to contexts and experiences. We suggest that the concept of "intersecting precarities" best captures the temporalities at stake; that these precarities include the effects of epidemic control measures; and that people do not just accept but actively negotiate these intersections as they seek to sustain their lives and livelihoods.

Highlights • COVID-19, an unprecedented health and development crisis, has exposed major faultlines and fragilities in current systems. • A novel conceptual framework grounded in a decade of research on epidemics and development emphasises a structural-unruly duality in the conditions and processes of emergence, progression and impact. • Mainstream development thinking and practice are part of the problem; post-pandemic futures require radical transformations in science-policy under uncertainty; economies, and citizen-state relations. • Post-COVID-19 development must fully embrace resilience, diversity, care and solidarity, and egalitarian, inclusive knowledge and politics., COVID-19 is proving to be the long awaited ‘big one’: a pandemic capable of bringing societies and economies to their knees. There is an urgent need to examine how COVID-19 – as a health and development crisis - unfolded the way it did it and to consider possibilities for post-pandemic transformations and for rethinking development more broadly. Drawing on over a decade of research on epidemics, we argue that the origins, unfolding and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic require analysis that addresses both structural political-economic conditions alongside far less ordered, ‘unruly’ processes reflecting complexity, uncertainty, contingency and context-specificity. This structural-unruly duality in the conditions and processes of pandemic emergence, progression and impact provides a lens to view three key challenges areas. The first is how scientific advice and evidence are used in policy, when conditions are rigidly ‘locked in’ to established power relations and yet so uncertain. Second is how economies function, with the COVID-19 crisis having revealed the limits of a conventional model of economic growth. The third concerns how new forms of politics can become the basis of reshaped citizen-state relations in confronting a pandemic, such as those around mutual solidarity and care. COVID-19 demonstrates that we face an uncertain future, where anticipation of and resilience to major shocks must become the core problematic of development studies and practice. Where mainstream approaches to development have been top down, rigid and orientated towards narrowly-defined economic goals, post-COVID-19 development must have a radically transformative, egalitarian and inclusive knowledge and politics at its core.

South Africa is increasingly offering screening, diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB), and especially drug-resistant TB, at the primary care level. Nosocomial transmission of TB within primary health facilities is a growing concern in South Africa, and globally. We explore here how TB infection prevention and control (IPC) policies, historically focused on hospitals, are being implemented within primary care facilities. We spoke to 15 policy actors using in-depth interviews about barriers to effective TB-IPC and opportunities for improving implementation. We identified four drivers of poor policy implementation: fragmentation of institutional responsibility and accountability for TB-IPC; struggles by TB-IPC advocates to frame TB-IPC as an urgent and addressable policy problem; barriers to policy innovation from both a lack of evidence as well as a policy environment dependent on 'new' evidence to justify new policy; and the impact of professional medical cultures on the accurate recognition of and response to TB risks. Participants also identified examples of TB-IPC innovation and described conditions necessary for these successes. TB-IPC is a long-standing, complex health systems challenge. As important as downstream practices like mask-wearing and ventilation are, sustained, effective TB-IPC ultimately requires that we better address the upstream barriers to TB-IPC policy formulation and implementation.

Introduction Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) causing lower limb lymphoedema such as podoconiosis, lymphatic filariasis (LF) and leprosy are common in Ethiopia. Routine health services for morbidity management and disability prevention (MMDP) of lymphoedema caused by these conditions are still lacking, even though it imposes a huge burden on affected individuals and their communities in terms of physical and mental health, and psychosocial and economic outcomes. This calls for an integrated, holistic approach to MMDP across these three diseases.\ud \ud Methods and analysis The ‘Excellence in Disability Prevention Integrated across NTDs’ (EnDPoINT) implementation research study aims to assess the integration and scale-up of a holistic package of care—including physical health, mental health and psychosocial care—into routine health services for people with lymphoedema caused by podoconiosis, LF and leprosy in selected districts in Awi zone in the North–West of Ethiopia. The study is being carried out over three phases using a wide range of mixed methodologies. Phase 1 involves the development of a comprehensive holistic care package and strategies for its integration into the routine health services across the three diseases, and to examine the factors that influence integration and the roles of key health system actors. Phase 2 involves a pilot study conducted in one subdistrict in Awi zone, to establish the care package’s adoption, feasibility, acceptability, fidelity, potential effectiveness, its readiness for scale-up, costs of the interventions and the suitability of the training and training materials. Phase 3 involves scale-up of the care package in three whole districts, as well as its evaluation in regard to coverage, implementation, clinical (physical health, mental health and psychosocial) and economic outcomes.\ud \ud Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval for the study has been obtained in the UK and Ethiopia. The results will be disseminated through publications in scientific journals, conference presentations, policy briefs and workshops.\ud \ud https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/\ud This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made.

The heterogeneous epidemiological picture for COVID-19 in Africa continues to generate debate. Modelling projections raise speculation about the phases and trends of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks across the continent and how these differ from outbreaks elsewhere.[1–4][1] Continental efforts drew praise in

This article problematises the ways in which behavioural change by poor individuals dominates the global discussions on means to tackle issues caused by systemic problems. We do so by focusing on the case of animal diseases, a symptom of many systematic failures. While livestock farming has long been praised as a mitigating factor against poverty, livestock diseases threaten the lives and livelihoods of poor and marginalised people who depend on animals. Aiming at controlling animal diseases, policy makers tend to focus on behavioural change by individual farmers by enhancing their knowledge. We conducted an in-depth qualitative research among pig farmers in Myanmar, a country that is rapidly increasing livestock production, to document contextual and systematic constraints that influence farmers' understandings and perceptions of disease-related risks and household-level decisions to invest in animal disease control. We conducted in-depth interviews, focus group discussions and participant observation in three townships in the Yangon region. Structural constraints such as weak veterinary health system and limited access to low-interest credit prevent farmers from gaining necessary knowledge about disease prevention and make them economically vulnerable. These systematic constraints drive behaviours considered 'risky' for disease emergence and spread. As a result, many small- and medium-scale farmers in low- and middle-income countries remain trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty and ill health for both animals and humans. We conclude that, instead of focusing on individual behavioural change, interventions need to combine enhancing knowledge by individual farmers and tackling economic and structural constraints that limit their agency and ability to address practices that are considered risky.

Infection prevention and control (IPC) measures to reduce transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive tuberculosis (TB) in health facilities are well described but poorly implemented. The implementation of TB IPC has been assessed primarily through quantitative and structured approaches that treat administrative, environmental, and personal protective measures as discrete entities. We present an on-going project entitled Umoya omuhle (“good air”), conducted in two provinces of South Africa, that adopts an interdisciplinary, ‘whole systems’ approach to problem analysis and intervention development for reducing nosocomial transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) through improved IPC. We suggest that TB IPC represents a complex intervention that is delivered within a dynamic context shaped by policy guidelines, health facility space, infrastructure, organisation of care, and management culture. Methods drawn from epidemiology, anthropology, and health policy and systems research enable rich contextual analysis of how nosocomial Mtb transmission occurs, as well as opportunities to address the problem holistically. A ‘whole systems’ approach can identify leverage points within the health facility infrastructure and organisation of care that can inform the design of interventions to reduce the risk of nosocomial Mtb transmission.

Background In 2011, a decision was made to scale up a pilot innovation involving ‘adherence clubs’ as a form of differentiated care for HIV positive people in the public sector antiretroviral therapy programme in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. In 2016 we were involved in the qualitative aspect of an evaluation of the adherence club model, the overall objective of which was to assess the health outcomes for patients accessing clubs through epidemiological analysis, and to conduct a health systems analysis to evaluate how the model of care performed at scale. In this paper we adopt a complex adaptive systems lens to analyse planned organisational change through intervention in a state health system. We explore the challenges associated with taking to scale a pilot that began as a relatively simple innovation by a non-governmental organisation. Results Our analysis reveals how a programme initially representing a simple, unitary system in terms of management and clinical governance had evolved into a complex, differentiated care system. An innovation that was assessed as an excellent idea and received political backing, worked well whilst supported on a small scale. However, as scaling up progressed, challenges have emerged at the same time as support has waned. We identified a ‘tipping point’ at which the system was more likely to fail, as vulnerabilities magnified and the capacity for adaptation was exceeded. Yet the study also revealed the impressive capacity that a health system can have for catalysing novel approaches. Conclusions We argue that innovation in largescale, complex programmes in health systems is a continuous process that requires ongoing support and attention to new innovation as challenges emerge. Rapid scaling up is also likely to require recourse to further resources, and a culture of iterative learning to address emerging challenges and mitigate complex system errors. These are necessary steps to the future success of adherence clubs as a cornerstone of differentiated care. Further research is needed to assess the equity and quality outcomes of a differentiated care model and to ensure the inclusive distribution of the benefits to all categories of people living with HIV.

This paper discusses health policy and systems research in complex and rapidly changing contexts. It focuses on ethical issues at stake for researchers working with government policy makers to provide evidence to inform major health systems change at scale, particularly when the dynamic nature of the context and ongoing challenges to the health system can result in unpredictable outcomes. We focus on situations where ‘country ownership’ of HSR is relatively well established and where there is significant involvement of local researchers and close ties and relationships with policy makers are often present. We frame our discussion around two country case studies with which we are familiar, namely China and South Africa and discuss the implications for conducting ‘embedded’ research. We suggest that reflexivity is an important concept for health system researchers who need to think carefully about positionality and their normative stance and to use such reflection to ensure that they can negotiate to retain autonomy, whilst also contributing evidence for health system change. A research process informed by the notion of reflexive practice and iterative learning will require a longitudinal review at key points in the research timeline. Such review should include the convening of a deliberative process and should involve a range of stakeholders, including those most likely to be affected by the intended and unintended consequences of change.

International audience

This review identifies evidence on supply-side interventions to change the practices of antibiotic prescribers and gatekeepers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). A total of 102 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which 70 studies evaluated interventions and 32 provided insight into prescribing contexts. All intervention studies were from human healthcare settings, none were from animal health. Only one context study examined antibiotic use in animal health. The evidence base is uneven, with the strongest evidence on knowledge and stewardship interventions. The review found that multiplex interventions that combine different strategies to influence behaviour tend to have a higher success rate than interventions based on single strategies. Evidence on prescribing contexts highlights interacting influences including health system quality, education, perceptions of patient demand, bureaucratic processes, profit, competition, and cultures of care. Most interventions took place within one health setting. Very few studies targeted interventions across different kinds of providers and settings. Interventions in hospitals were the most commonly evaluated. There is much less evidence on private and informal private providers who play a major role in drug distribution in LMICs. There were no interventions involving drug detailers or the pharmaceutical companies despite their prominent role in the contextual studies.

At the turn of the millennium, people with mental disturbance often lived in circumstances of economic marginalization in South Africa. The historical material of one low-income urban area reveals the place of kin relations and reciprocity in enabling negotiation of a more fluid set of responses to mental illness. In this sociocultural context, "stigma" was not an inevitable reaction to mental illness, and a more complex set of social dynamics could mitigate marginalization. Research on how changing informal care practices relate to state-based community care continues to be important to inform contemporary health reforms.

During a five-day workshop, former clinical trial participants and local musicians wrote the lyrics and recorded a song about an HIV prevention trial. Born of concerns about misconceptions regarding experimental drug trials, the aim was to engender engagement with medical researchers and open dialogue about the risks and benefits of trial participation. Composing lyrics that highlighted their credibility as communicators of medical scientific knowledge and their selfless sacrifice to stem the transmission of HIV, women performed their social positioning and cultural authority in contrast to men as well as other women not part of the trial. While involvement in HIV prevention initiatives often attracts stigma, scorn and criticism, the song's lyrics highlighted women's new-found identities as heroines searching for a solution to the spread of HIV, challenging these stereotypes. Methodologically, the paper describes a novel approach that uses artistic expression for public engagement with biomedical research.

Many serious emerging zoonotic infections have recently arisen from bats, including Ebola, Marburg, SARS-coronavirus, Hendra, Nipah, and a number of rabies and rabies-related viruses, consistent with the overall observation that wildlife are an important source of emerging zoonoses for the human population. Mechanisms underlying the recognized association between ecosystem health and human health remain poorly understood and responding appropriately to the ecological, social and economic conditions that facilitate disease emergence and transmission represents a substantial societal challenge. In the context of disease emergence from wildlife, wildlife and habitat should be conserved, which in turn will preserve vital ecosystem structure and function, which has broader implications for human wellbeing and environmental sustainability, while simultaneously minimizing the spillover of pathogens from wild animals into human beings. In this review, we propose a novel framework for the holistic and interdisciplinary investigation of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers, using the spillover of bat pathogens as a case study. This study has been developed to gain a detailed interdisciplinary understanding, and it combines cutting-edge perspectives from both natural and social sciences, linked to policy impacts on public health, land use and conservation.

In keeping with international trends, South African health policy is moving towards comprehensive primary health care, with mental health care offered as integral to this service. This move is consonant with other moves towards integration in a formerly divided country. We consider some ideological bases for the move towards integration, and the consequences for psychiatric patients. We show how the specialist terrain of the mental health nurse has been recast as focusing primarily on violence, substance abuse and HIV/AIDS rather than on psychiatric care. Using case material to illustrate our argument we suggest that integrating mental health care into the primary health care system may have unintended negative consequences for patients. The argument has implications for services in other poorly resourced and postconflict societies.

Interdisciplinary research on zoonotic disease has tended to focus on ‘risk’ of disease transmission as a conceptual common denominator. With reference to endemic zoonoses at the livestock–human interface, we argue for considering a broader sweep of disciplinary insights from anthropology and other social sciences in interdisciplinary dialogue, in particular cross-cultural perspectives on human–animal engagement. We consider diverse worldviews where human–animal encounters are perceived of in terms of the kinds of social relations they generate, and the notion of culture is extended to the ‘natural’ world. This has implications for how animals are valued, treated and prioritized. Thinking differently with and about animals and about species' boundaries could enable ways of addressing zoonotic diseases which have closer integration with people's own cultural norms. If we can bring this kind of knowledge into One Health debates, we find ourselves with a multiplicity of worldviews, where bounded categories such as human:animal and nature:culture cannot be assumed. This might in turn influence our scientific ways of seeing our own disciplinary cultures, and generate novel ways of understanding zoonoses and constructing solutions.This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’.

Background: The government of Malawi is committed to the broad rollout of antiretroviral treatment in Malawi in the public health sector; however one of the primary challenges has been the shortage of trained health care workers. The Practical Approach to Lung Health Plus HIV/AIDS in Malawi (PALM PLUS) package is an innovative guideline and training intervention that supports primary care middle-cadre health care workers to provide front-line integrated primary care. The purpose of this paper is to describe the lessons learned in implementing the PALM PLUS package. Methods: A clinical tool, based on algorithm- and symptom-based guidelines was adapted to the Malawian context. An accompanying training program based on educational outreach principles was developed and a cascade training approach was used for implementation of the PALM PLUS package in 30 health centres, targeting clinical officers, medical assistants, and nurses. Lessons learned were identified during program implementation through engagement with collaborating partners and program participants and review of program evaluation findings. Results: Key lessons learned for successful program implementation of the PALM PLUS package include the importance of building networks for peer-based support, ensuring adequate training capacity, making linkages with continuing professional development accreditation and providing modest in-service training budgets. The main limiting factors to implementation were turnover of staff and desire for financial training allowances. Conclusions: The PALM PLUS approach is a potential model for supporting mid-level health care workers to provide front-line integrated primary care in low and middle income countries, and may be useful for future task-shifting initiatives.

The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistant pathogens poses a big challenge to policy-makers, who need to oversee the transformation of health systems that evolved to provide easy access to these drugs into ones that encourage appropriate use of antimicrobials, whilst reducing the risk of resistance. This is a particular challenge for low and middle-income countries with pluralistic health systems where antibiotics are available in a number of different markets. This review paper considers access and use of antibiotics in these countries from a complex adaptive system perspective. It highlights the main areas of intervention that could provide the key to addressing the sustainable long term use and availability of antibiotics.A focus on the synergies between interventions addressing access strategies, antibiotic quality, diagnostics for low-resource settings, measures to encourage just and sustainable decision making and help seeking optimal therapeutic and dosing strategies are key levers for the sustainable future of antibiotic use. Successful integration of such strategies will be dependent on effective governance mechanisms, effective partnerships and coalition building and accurate evaluation systems at national, regional and global levels.