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The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, the radiative power of the fires, and the extraordinary number of fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched in the historical record. Australia’s hottest and driest year on record, 2019, was characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads that primed the landscape to burn when exposed to dangerous fire weather and ignition. The combination of climate variability and long-term climate trends generated the climate extremes experienced in 2019, and the compounding effects of two or more modes of climate variability in their fire-promoting phases (as occurred in 2019) has historically increased the chances of large forest fires occurring in southeast Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates that fire-promoting phases of tropical Pacific and Indian ocean variability are now unusually frequent compared with natural variability in pre-industrial times. Indicators of forest fire danger in southeast Australia have already emerged outside of the range of historical experience, suggesting that projections made more than a decade ago that increases in climate-driven fire risk would be detectable by 2020, have indeed eventuated. The multiple climate change contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia, as well as the observed non-linear escalation of fire extent and intensity, raise the likelihood that fire events may continue to rapidly intensify in the future. Improving local and national adaptation measures while also pursuing ambitious global climate change mitigation efforts would provide the best strategy for limiting further increases in fire risk in southeast Australia. Multiple climate contributors to fire risk in southeast Australia have led to an increase in fire extent and intensity over the past decades that will likely continue into the future, suggests a synthesis of climate variability, long-term trends and palaeoclimatic evidence.

Reconstructions of global hydroclimate during the Common Era (CE; the past ∼2000 years) are important for providing context for current and future global environmental change. Stable isotope ratios in water are quantitative indicators of hydroclimate on regional to global scales, and these signals are encoded in a wide range of natural geologic archives. Here we present the Iso2k database, a global compilation of previously published datasets from a variety of natural archives that record the stable oxygen (δ18O) or hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic compositions of environmental waters, which reflect hydroclimate changes over the CE. The Iso2k database contains 759 isotope records from the terrestrial and marine realms, including glacier and ground ice (210); speleothems (68); corals, sclerosponges, and mollusks (143); wood (81); lake sediments and other terrestrial sediments (e.g., loess) (158); and marine sediments (99). Individual datasets have temporal resolutions ranging from sub-annual to centennial and include chronological data where available. A fundamental feature of the database is its comprehensive metadata, which will assist both experts and nonexperts in the interpretation of each record and in data synthesis. Key metadata fields have standardized vocabularies to facilitate comparisons across diverse archives and with climate-model-simulated fields. This is the first global-scale collection of water isotope proxy records from multiple types of geological and biological archives. It is suitable for evaluating hydroclimate processes through time and space using large-scale synthesis, model–data intercomparison and (paleo)data assimilation. The Iso2k database is available for download at https://doi.org/10.25921/57j8-vs18 (Konecky and McKay, 2020) and is also accessible via the NOAA/WDS Paleo Data landing page: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/29593 (last access: 30 July 2020).

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) affects climate and rainfall across the world, and most severely in nations surrounding the Indian Ocean1–4. The frequency and intensity of positive IOD events increased during the twentieth century5 and may continue to intensify in a warming world6. However, confidence in predictions of future IOD change is limited by known biases in IOD models7 and the lack of information on natural IOD variability before anthropogenic climate change. Here we use precisely dated and highly resolved coral records from the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, where the signature of IOD variability is strong and unambiguous, to produce a semi-continuous reconstruction of IOD variability that covers five centuries of the last millennium. Our reconstruction demonstrates that extreme positive IOD events were rare before 1960. However, the most extreme event on record (1997) is not unprecedented, because at least one event that was approximately 27 to 42 per cent larger occurred naturally during the seventeenth century. We further show that a persistent, tight coupling existed between the variability of the IOD and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation during the last millennium. Indo-Pacific coupling was characterized by weak interannual variability before approximately 1590, which probably altered teleconnection patterns, and by anomalously strong variability during the seventeenth century, which was associated with societal upheaval in tropical Asia. A tendency towards clustering of positive IOD events is evident in our reconstruction, which—together with the identification of extreme IOD variability and persistent tropical Indo-Pacific climate coupling—may have implications for improving seasonal and decadal predictions and managing the climate risks of future IOD variability. Coral records indicate that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole over the last millennium is strongly coupled to variability in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and that recent extremes are unusual but not unprecedented.

El Nino events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Nino events have sea surface temperature anomalies that are strongest in the far eastern equatorial Pacific, whereas peak ocean warming occurs further west during Central Pacific El Nino events. The event types differ in their impacts on the location and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies globally. Evidence is emerging that Central Pacific El Nino events have become more common, a trend that is projected by some studies to continue with ongoing climate change. Here we identify spatial and temporal patterns in observed sea surface temperatures that distinguish the evolution of Eastern and Central Pacific El Nino events in the tropical Pacific. We show that these patterns are recorded by a network of 27 seasonally resolved coral records, which we then use to reconstruct Central and Eastern Pacific El Nino activity for the past four centuries. We find a simultaneous increase in Central Pacific events and a decrease in Eastern Pacific events since the late twentieth century that leads to a ratio of Central to Eastern Pacific events that is unusual in a multicentury context. Compared to the past four centuries, the most recent 30 year period includes fewer, but more intense, Eastern Pacific El Nino events. Compared to the past few centuries, Central Pacific El Nino events have become more frequent, whereas the number of Eastern Pacific events has declined in the most recent decades, according to reconstructions from a network of seasonally resolved coral records.

Maritime Continent (MC) convection drives zonal and meridional climate modes, including the Australasian monsoon system, but its role in past global climate change remains uncertain. Here we use speleothem oxygen isotope ( δ 18 O ) records from a latitudinal transect across the MC, and a new critically located record for southwest Sulawesi, Indonesia, to reconstruct spatial hydroclimate variability in the Australasian monsoon domain over the last 40,000 yr. Our results show that atmospheric convection in the core MC region was reduced from ∼40,000 to 12,000 yr ago and strengthened rapidly only after the inundation of shallow continental shelves in the region, well after the onset of deglaciation. Interestingly, the millennial-scale climatic impacts of North Atlantic Heinrich events are not evident in Sulawesi. Together with climate model simulations, we demonstrate that changes in deep atmospheric convection dominate glacial–interglacial hydroclimate over the MC, whereas latitudinal shifts in the mean location of the InterTropical Convergence Zone control rainfall patterns during abrupt climate changes.

The use of X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) Core Scanning for continuous high-resolution analysis of Sr/Ca in corals is investigated here as a new method for analyzing coral material. Corals are valuable archives for generating high resolution palaeoclimate records of sea surface temperatures of the tropical oceans, but traditional methods of analyzing coral geochemistry involve extensive subsampling and wet chemistry techniques to obtain high precision elemental records. More recent developments of micro-beam techniques have limitations in the length of core that can be scanned at any one time. XRF core scanning provides a fast, non-destructive method of analyzing long sections of coral cores whilst maintaining a high sampling resolution. Here we apply this method to two modern corals, from the Sunda Strait, Indonesia and One Tree Island, Great Barrier Reef Australia. We find that results show that XRF core scanning of corals produce Sr/Ca records that capture the annual cycle, particularly from reef sites with a large sea surface temperature range. Coupled density measurements of the coral skeleton also aid in increasing the utility of XRF measurements obtained from coral material, although difficulties remain in reliably reconstructing interannual temperature variability using XRF Sr/Ca determinations. We recommend that XRF can provide a valuable method of quick and non-destructive screening of coral material, prior to more targeted analysis using traditional destructive geochemical analysis.

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the earth’s dominant mode of inter- annual climate variability. It alternates between warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina) states, with global impacts on climate and society. This study provides new ENSO reconstructions based on a large, updated collection of proxy records. We use a novel reconstruction approa ch that employs running principal components, which allows us to take covariance changes between proxy records into account and thereby identify periods of likely teleconnection changes. Using different implementations of the principal component analysis enables us to identify periods within the last millennium when quantifications of ENSO are most robust. These periods range from 1580 to the end of the 17th century and from 1825 to present. We incorporate an assessment of consistency among our new and existing ENSO reconstructions leading to five short phases of low agreement among the reconstructions between 1700 and 1786. We find a consistent spatial pattern of proxy covariance during these four phases, differing from the structure seen over the instrumental period. This pattern points towards changes in teleconnections in the west Pacific/Australasian region, compared to the present state. Using our new reconstructions, we find a significant response of ENSO towards more La Nina-like conditions 3–5 years after major volcanic events. We further show that our new reconstructions and existing reconstructions largely agree on the state of ENSO during volcanic eruptions in the years 1695 and 1784, which helps put into perspective the climatic response to these events. During all other large volcan ic eruptions of the last 1000 years, there is no reconstruction coherency with regard to the state of ENSO.

Paleoclimate archives, such as high-resolution ice core records, provide a means to investigate past climate variability. Until recently, the Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record remained one of few millennial-length high-resolution coastal records in East Antarctica. A new ice core drilled in 2017/2018 at Mount Brown South, approximately 1000 km west of Law Dome, provides an additional high-resolution record that will likely span the last millennium in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. Here, we compare snow accumulation rates and sea salt concentrations in the upper portion (∼ 20 m) of three Mount Brown South ice cores and an updated Law Dome record over the period 1975–2016. Annual sea salt concentrations from the Mount Brown South site record preserve a stronger signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; austral winter and spring, r = 0.533, p < 0.001, Multivariate El Niño Index) compared to a previously defined Law Dome record of summer sea salt concentrations (November–February, r = 0.398, p = 0.010, Southern Oscillation Index). The Mount Brown South site record and Law Dome record preserve inverse signals for the ENSO, possibly due to longitudinal variability in meridional transport in the southern Indian Ocean, although further analysis is needed to confirm this. We suggest that ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive atmospheric teleconnections in the southern mid-latitudes. These anomalies are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of regional westerly winds to the north of Mount Brown South that correspond to years of low (high) sea salt deposition at Mount Brown South during La Niña (El Niño) events. The extended Mount Brown South annual sea salt record (when complete) may offer a new proxy record for reconstructions of the ENSO over the recent millennium, along with improved understanding of regional atmospheric variability in the southern Indian Ocean, in addition to that derived from Law Dome.

Abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are known to have affected the strength of the Indian and Asian Monsoons during glacial and deglacial climate states. However, there is still much uncertainty around the hydroclimate response of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) region to abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic. Many studies suggest a mean southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the IPWP region during phases of reduced Atlantic meridional overturning, however, existing proxies have seasonal biases and conflicting responses, making it difficult to determine the true extent of North Atlantic forcing in this climatically important region. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution record of eastern Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability spanning the last 16 ky (thousand years) from δ 18 O measurements in an aragonite–calcite speleothem from central Sumatra. This represents the western-most speleothem record from the IPWP region. Precipitation arrives year-round at this site, with the majority sourced from the local tropical eastern Indian Ocean and two additional long-range seasonal sources associated with the boreal and austral summer monsoons. The Sumatran speleothem demonstrates a clear deglacial structure that includes 18O enrichment during the Younger Dryas and 18O depletion during the Bolling–Allerod, similar to the pattern seen in speleothems of the Asian and Indian monsoon realms. The speleothem δ 18 O changes at this site are best explained by changes in rainfall amount and changes in the contributions from different moisture pathways. Reduced rainfall in Sumatra during the Younger Dryas is most likely driven by reductions in moisture transport along the northern or southern monsoon transport pathways to Sumatra. Considered with other regional proxies, the record from Sumatra suggests the response of the IPWP to North Atlantic freshwater forcing is not solely driven by southward shifts of the ITCZ, but also a reduction in moisture transport along both monsoon pathways.

The leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which affects the atmosphere and ocean from the mid-latitudes to the Antarctic. However, the short instrumental record of the SAM does not adequately represent its multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability. Long palaeoclimatic reconstructions of the SAM would improve our understanding of its low frequency behavior and its effects on regional temperature, rainfall, sea ice, and ecosystem processes. In this progress report, we review three published palaeoclimatic reconstructions available for understanding multi-decadal to centennial-scale variability of the SAM. Reconstructions reviewed here show similar patterns of decadal SAM variability during the last two centuries, but earlier centuries are less coherent. Reconstructions clearly maintain similar trends towards more positive SAM states since the onset of significant anthropogenic climate forcing from rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations and ozone depletion and these excursions appear unprecedented over at least the last 500 years. We describe how new multi-proxy reconstructions of the SAM could further improve our understanding of its long-term variability and effects across all geographic sectors of the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we recommend careful selection and development of proxies in SAM-sensitive regions and seasons. In particular, proxies related to cool-season conditions and from the poorly-sampled Indian Ocean sector would allow for a true circumpolar and year-round reconstruction of past SAM variability.

Since 1979 when continuous satellite observations began, Southern Ocean sea ice cover has increased, whilst global coupled climate models simulate a decrease over the same period. It is uncertain whether the observed trends are anthropogenically forced or due to internal variability, or whether the apparent discrepancy between models and observations can be explained by internal variability. The shortness of the satellite record is one source of this uncertainty, and a possible solution is to use proxy reconstructions, which extend the analysis period but at the expense of higher observational uncertainty. In this work, we evaluate the utility for change detection of 20th century Southern Ocean sea ice proxies. We find that there are reliable proxies for the East Antarctic, Amundsen, Bellingshausen and Weddell sectors in late winter, and for the Weddell Sea in late autumn. Models and reconstructions agree that sea ice extent in the East Antarctic, Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas has decreased since the early 1970s, consistent with an anthropogenic response. However, the decrease is small compared to internal variability, and the change is not robustly detectable. We also find that optimal fingerprinting filters out much of the uncertainty in proxy reconstructions. The Ross Sea is a confounding factor, with a significant increase in sea ice since 1979 that is not captured by climate models; however, existing proxy reconstructions of this region are not yet sufficiently reliable for formal change detection.

Antarctic sea ice has been increasing in recent decades, but with strong regional differences in the expression of sea ice change. Declining sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea since 1979 (the satellite era) has been linked to the observed warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, while the Ross Sea sector has seen a marked increase in sea ice during this period. Here we present a 308 year record of methansulphonic acid from coastal West Antarctica, representing sea ice conditions in the Amundsen-Ross Sea. We demonstrate that the recent increase in sea ice in this region is part of a longer trend, with an estimated ~1° northward expansion in winter sea ice extent (SIE) during the twentieth century and a total expansion of ~1.3° since 1702. The greatest reconstructed SIE occurred during the mid-1990s, with five of the past 30 years considered exceptional in the context of the past three centuries.

Ice cores provide some of the best-dated and most comprehensive proxy records, as they yield a vast and growing array of proxy indicators. Selecting a site for ice core drilling is nonetheless challenging, as the assessment of potential new sites needs to consider a variety of factors. Here, we demonstrate a systematic approach to site selection for a new East Antarctic high-resolution ice core record. Specifically, seven criteria are considered: (1) 2000-year-old ice at 300 m depth; (2) above 1000 m elevation; (3) a minimum accumulation rate of 250 mm years−1 IE (ice equivalent); (4) minimal surface reworking to preserve the deposited climate signal; (5) a site with minimal displacement or elevation change in ice at 300 m depth; (6) a strong teleconnection to midlatitude climate; and (7) an appropriately complementary relationship to the existing Law Dome record (a high-resolution record in East Antarctica). Once assessment of these physical characteristics identified promising regions, logistical considerations (for site access and ice core retrieval) were briefly considered. We use Antarctic surface mass balance syntheses, along with ground-truthing of satellite data by airborne radar surveys to produce all-of-Antarctica maps of surface roughness, age at specified depth, elevation and displacement change, and surface air temperature correlations to pinpoint promising locations. We also use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA 20th Century reanalysis (ERA-20C) to ensure that a site complementary to the Law Dome record is selected. We find three promising sites in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica in the coastal zone from Enderby Land to the Ingrid Christensen Coast (50–100° E). Although we focus on East Antarctica for a new ice core site, the methodology is more generally applicable, and we include key parameters for all of Antarctica which may be useful for ice core site selection elsewhere and/or for other purposes.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has major climate impacts worldwide, and most profoundly for nations around the Indian Ocean basin. It has been 20 years since the IOD was first formally defined and research since that time has focused primarily on examining IOD dynamics, trends and impacts in observational records and in model simulations. However, considerable uncertainty exists due to the brevity of reliable instrumental data for the Indian Ocean basin and also due to known biases in model representations of tropical Indian Ocean climate. Consequently, the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) concluded that there was only low confidence in projections of a future increase in the strength and frequency of positive IOD events. This review examines the additional perspectives that palaeoclimate evidence provides on IOD trends, variability, interactions with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and impacts. Palaeoclimate data show that recent trends towards more frequent and intense positive IOD events have been accompanied by a mean shift toward a more positive IOD-like mean zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Indian Ocean (due to enhanced warming in the west relative to the east). The increasing frequency of positive IOD events will imminently move outside of the range of natural variability in the last millennium if projected trends continue. Across a range of past climate states, periods of a mean positive IOD-like state in the Indian Ocean have been accompanied by elevated IOD variability. This includes events that exceed the magnitude of even the strongest measured historical events, demonstrating that the Indian Ocean can harbour even stronger variability than what has been observed to date. During the last millennium there has been a tight coupling between the magnitude of interannual IOD and ENSO variability, although positive IOD events have frequently occurred without any indication of a co-occurring El Nino event. This IOD–ENSO coupling may not have persisted across past climates that were very different from the present, raising questions of whether their interaction will change in a rapidly warming future. Palaeoclimate evidence for hydroclimate changes during the last millennium further points to the importance of interannual IOD and ENSO variability in providing the rainfall that breaks droughts in regions that are impacted by these modes of variability. Overall, this review highlights the rich insights into the IOD that can be gained from palaeoclimate evidence. Palaeoclimate data helps to overcome known limitations in observations and model simulations of the IOD, and demonstrates that strong conclusions about the IOD and its impacts can be reached when the evidence for past, present and future behaviour of the IOD are assessed together.

Light absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere and cryosphere play an important role in the climate system. Their presence in ambient air and snow changes the radiative properties of these systems, thus contributing to increased atmospheric warming and snowmelt. High spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations and a shortage of long-term observations contribute to large uncertainties in properly assigning the climate effects of aerosols through time. Starting around AD 1860, many glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat from their maximum mid-19th century terminus positions, thereby visualizing the end of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow has been suggested as the main driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps. The basis for this hypothesis was model simulations using elemental carbon concentrations at low temporal resolution from two ice cores in the Alps. Here we present sub-annually resolved concentration records of refractory black carbon (rBC; using soot photometry) as well as distinctive tracers for mineral dust, biomass burning and industrial pollution from the Colle Gnifetti ice core in the Alps from AD 1741 to 2015. These records allow precise assessment of a potential relation between the timing of observed acceleration of glacier melt in the mid-19th century with an increase of rBC deposition on the glacier caused by the industrialization of Western Europe. Our study reveals that in AD 1875, the time when rBC ice-core concentrations started to significantly increase, the majority of Alpine glaciers had already experienced more than 80 % of their total 19th century length reduction, casting doubt on a leading role for soot in terminating of the Little Ice Age. Attribution of glacial retreat requires expansion of the spatial network and sampling density of high alpine ice cores to balance potential biasing effects arising from transport, deposition, and snow conservation in individual ice-core records.

International audience; Over the past 3.5 million years, there have been several intervals when climate conditions were warmer than during the pre-industrial Holocene. Although past intervals of warming were forced differently than future anthropogenic change, such periods can provide insights into potential future climate impacts and ecosystem feedbacks, especially over centennial-to-millennial timescales that are often not covered by climate model simulations. Our observation-based synthesis of the understanding of past intervals with temperatures within the range of projected future warming suggests that there is a low risk of runaway greenhouse gas feedbacks for global warming of no more than 2 °C. However, substantial regional environmental impacts can occur. A global average warming of 1–2 °C with strong polar amplification has, in the past, been accompanied by significant shifts in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several metres on millennial timescales. Comparison of palaeo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing by as much as a factor of two, and thus may also underestimate centennial-to-millennial-scale sea-level rise.

Light absorbing aerosols in the atmosphere and cryosphere play an important role in the climate system. Their presence in ambient air and snow changes radiative properties of these media, thus contributing to increased atmospheric warming and snowmelt. High spatio-temporal variability of aerosol concentrations and a shortage of long-term observations contribute to large uncertainties in properly assigning the climate effects of aerosols through time. Starting around 1860 AD, many glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat from their maximum mid-19th century terminus positions, thereby visualizing the end of the Little Ice Age in Europe. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial black carbon to snow has been suggested as the main driver of the abrupt glacier retreats in the Alps. Basis for this hypothesis were model simulations using elemental carbon concentrations at low temporal resolution from two ice cores in the Alps. Here we present sub-annually resolved, well-replicated concentration records of refractory black carbon (rBC; using soot photometry) as well as distinctive tracers for mineral dust, biomass burning and industrial pollution from the Colle Gnifetti ice core in the Alps from 1741–2015 AD. These records allow precise assessment of a potential relation between the timing of observed acceleration of glacier melt in the mid-19th century with an increase of rBC deposition on the glacier caused by the industrialization of Western Europe. Our study reveals that in 1875 AD, the time when European rBC emission rates started to significantly increase, the majority of Alpine glaciers had already experienced more than 80 % of their total 19th century length reduction. Industrial BC emissions can, therefore, not been considered as the primary forcing for the rapid deglaciation at the end of the Little Ice Age in the Alps. BC records from the Alps and Greenland also reveal the limitations of bottom-up emission inventories to represent a realistic evolution of anthropogenic BC emissions since preindustrial times.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-tropics. Here, we assess the stationarity of SAM spatial correlations with instrumental and paleoclimate proxy data for the past millennium. The instrumental period shows that temporal non-stationarities in SAM teleconnections are not consistent across the SH land areas. This suggests that the influence of the SAM index is modulated by regional effects. However, within key-regions with good proxy data coverage (South America, Tasmania, New Zealand), teleconnections are mostly stationary over the instrumental period. Using different stationarity criteria for proxy record selection, we provide new austral summer and annual mean SAM index reconstructions over the last millennium. Our summer SAM reconstructions are very robust to changes in proxy record selection and the selection of the calibration period, particularly on the multi-decadal timescale. In contrast, the weaker performance and lower agreement in the annual mean SAM reconstructions point towards changing teleconnection patterns that may be particularly important outside the summer months. Our results clearly portend that the temporal stationarity of the proxy-climate relationships should be taken into account in the design of comprehensive regional and hemispherical climate reconstructions. The summer SAM reconstructions show no significant relationship to solar, greenhouse gas and volcanic forcing, with the exception of an extremely strong negative anomaly following the AD 1257 Samalas eruption. Furthermore, reconstructed pre-industrial summer SAM trends are very similar to trends obtained by model control simulations. We find that recent trends in the summer SAM lie outside the 5–95% range of pre-industrial natural variability. Fil: Dätwyler, Christoph. University of Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research. Institute of Geography and Oeschger ; Suiza Fil: Neukom, Raphael. University of Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research. Institute of Geography and Oeschger ; Suiza Fil: Abram, Nerilie J.. Australian National University; Australia Fil: Gallant, Ailie J. E.. Monash University; Australia Fil: Grosjean, Martin. University of Bern. Centre for Climate Change Research. Institute of Geography and Oeschger ; Suiza Fil: Jacques-Coper, Martín. Universidad de Concepción; Chile Fil: Karoly, David J.. University of Melbourne; Australia Fil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentina

During the most recent ice age, abrupt changes in the Arctic climate were transmitted through the ocean to Antarctica. An atmospheric link between the two hemispheres has now been identified across the Antarctic continent. Rapid shifts in southern westerly winds during the most recent ice age.

Most annually resolved climate reconstructions of the Common Era are based on terrestrial data, making it a challenge to independently assess how recent climate changes have affected the oceans. Here as part of the Past Global Changes Ocean2K project, we present four regionally calibrated and validated reconstructions of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, based on 57 published and publicly archived marine paleoclimate data sets derived exclusively from tropical coral archives. Validation exercises suggest that our reconstructions are interpretable for much of the past 400 years, depending on the availability of paleoclimate data within, and the reconstruction validation statistics for, each target region. Analysis of the trends in the data suggests that the Indian, western Pacific, and western Atlantic Ocean regions were cooling until modern warming began around the 1830s. The early 1800s were an exceptionally cool period in the Indo-Pacific region, likely due to multiple large tropical volcanic eruptions occurring in the early nineteenth century. Decadal-scale variability is a quasi-persistent feature of all basins. Twentieth century warming associated with greenhouse gas emissions is apparent in the Indian, West Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans, but we find no evidence that either natural or anthropogenic forcings have altered El Nino–Southern Oscillation-related variance in tropical sea surface temperatures. Our marine-based regional paleoclimate reconstructions serve as benchmarks against which terrestrial reconstructions as well as climate model simulations can be compared and as a basis for studying the processes by which the tropical oceans mediate climate variability and change.

Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterised, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica 2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5 and 10-year resolution, for 7 climatically-distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica 2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O-temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data; ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continental scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0–1900 CE we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000-years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st Century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica 2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data-model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python., PAGES, a core project of Future Earth, is supported by the U.S. and Swiss National Science Foundations. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Some of this work was conducted as part of the North America 2k Working Group supported by the John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis, funded by the U.S. Geological Survey. B. Bauer, W. Gross, and E. Gille (NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information) are gratefully acknowledged for helping assemble the data citations and creating the NCEI versions of the PAGES 2k data records. We thank all the investigators whose commitment to data sharing enables the open science ethos embodied by this project.

The record of winter fast-ice in the South Orkney Islands, northern Weddell Sea, Antarctica is over a century long and provides the longest observational record of sea-ice variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present analyses of the series of fast-ice formation and breakout dates from 1903 to 2008. We show that over the satellite era (post 1979) the timing of both final autumn formation and complete spring breakout of fast-ice is representative of the regional sea-ice concentrations (SIC) in the northern Weddell Sea, and associated with atmospheric conditions in the Amundsen Sea region to the west of the Antarctic Peninsula. Variation in the fast-ice breakout date is influenced by the intensity of the westerly/north-westerly winds associated with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). In contrast, the date of ice formation displays correlations with regional oceanic and sea-ice conditions over the previous 18 months, which indicate a preconditioning during the previous summer and winter, and exhibits variability associated with variation in tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (i.e. the El Niño-Sothern Oscillation, ENSO). A reduction in fast-ice duration at the South Orkney Islands around the 1950s was associated with both later formation and earlier breakout. However, there were marked changes in variability (with periodicities of 3-5 year, 7-9 year and 20 year) in each of the series and in their relationships with ENSO and SAM, indicating the need for caution in interpreting changes in ice conditions based on shorter-term satellite series.

Sea ice plays an important role in Earth's climate system. The lack of direct indications of past sea ice coverage, however, means that there is limited knowledge of the sensitivity and rate at which sea ice dynamics are involved in amplifying climate changes. As such, there is a need to develop new proxy records for reconstructing past sea ice conditions. Here we review the advances that have been made in using chemical tracers preserved in ice cores to determine past changes in sea ice cover around Antarctica. Ice core records of sea salt concentration show promise for revealing patterns of sea ice extent particularly over glacial–interglacial time scales. In the coldest climates, however, the sea salt signal appears to lose sensitivity and further work is required to determine how this proxy can be developed into a quantitative sea ice indicator. Methane sulphonic acid (MSA) in near-coastal ice cores has been used to reconstruct quantified changes and interannual variability in sea ice extent over shorter time scales spanning the last ∼160 years, and has potential to be extended to produce records of Antarctic sea ice changes throughout the Holocene. However the MSA ice core proxy also requires careful site assessment and interpretation alongside other palaeoclimate indicators to ensure reconstructions are not biased by non-sea ice factors, and we summarise some recommended strategies for the further development of sea ice histories from ice core MSA. For both proxies the limited information about the production and transfer of chemical markers from the sea ice zone to the Antarctic ice sheets remains an issue that requires further multidisciplinary study. Despite some exploratory and statistical work, the application of either proxy as an indicator of sea ice change in the Arctic also remains largely unknown. As information about these new ice core proxies builds, so too does the potential to develop a more comprehensive understanding of past changes in sea ice and its role in both long and short-term climate changes.

We present an automated process for determining the annual layer chronology of an ice-core with a strong annual signal, utilising the hydrogen peroxide record from an Antarctic Peninsula ice-core as a test signal on which to count annual cycles and explain the methods. The signal is de-trended and normalised before being split into sections with a deterministic cycle count and those that need more attention. Possible reconstructions for the uncertain sections are determined which could be used as a visual aid for manual counting, and a simple method for assigning probability measures to each reconstruction is discussed. The robustness of this process is explored by applying it to versions of two different chemistry signals from the same stretch of the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice Core Project) ice-core, which shows more variation in annual layer thickness, with and without thinning to mimic poorer quality data. An adapted version of these methods is applied to the more challenging non-sea-salt sulphur signal from the same Antarctic Peninsula core from which the hydrogen peroxide signal was taken. These methods could readily be adapted for use on much longer datasets, thereby reducing manual effort and providing a robust automated layer-counting methodology.

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Fil: Jones, Julie. University of Sheffield; Reino Unido Fil: Gille, Sarah. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: Goose, Hugues J.. Université Catholique de Louvain; Bélgica Fil: Abram, Nerillie J.. The Australian National University; Australia Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo de las Ingenierías; Argentina Fil: Charman, Dan J.. University of Exeter; Reino Unido Fil: Clem, Kyle R.. Victoria University of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Crosta Xavier. Universite de Bordeaux; Francia Fil: de Lavergne, Casimir. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; Francia Fil: Eisenman, Ian. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: England, Matthew H.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Fogt, Ryan L.. Ohio University; Estados Unidos Fil: Frankcombe, Leela M.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Marshall, Gareth J.. British Antartic Survey; Reino Unido Fil: Masson Delmotte, Valérie. Université de Paris-Saclay; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Morrison, Adele K.. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos Fil: Orsi, Anaïs J.. Université de Paris-Saclay; Francia Fil: Raphael, Marilyn N.. University of California; Estados Unidos Fil: Renwick, James A.. Victoria University of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Schneider, David P.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Simpkins, Graham R.. University of California at Irvine. School of Physical Sciences. Department of Earth System Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Steig, Eric J.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos Fil: Steni, Barbara. Universita' Ca' Foscari Di Venezia; Italia Fil: Swingedow, Didier. Universite de Bordeaux; Francia Fil: Vance, Tessa R.. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; Australia

Abrupt climate changes in the glacial North Atlantic altered the position of wind systems in the Northern Hemisphere and tropics. Ice-core data show that this disruption also reached the southern westerlies.

In the version of this Review Article originally published, ref. 10 was mistakenly cited instead of ref. 107 at the end of the sentence: “This complexity of residual ice cover makes it likely that HTM warming was regional, rather than global, and its peak warmth thus had different timing in different locations.” In addition, for ref. 108, Scientific Reports was incorrectly given as the publication name; it should have been Scientific Data. These errors have now been corrected in the online versions.

Coral records from a range of sites extend the index of the Indian Ocean Dipole back to 1846. Indian Ocean Dipole events increased in strength and frequency in the twentieth century, coincident with the development of direct feedbacks with the Asian Monsoon. The interplay of the El Nino Southern Oscillation, Asian monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)1,2,3 drives climatic extremes in and around the Indian Ocean. Historical4,5 and proxy6,7,8,9 records reveal changes in the behaviour of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Asian monsoon over recent decades10,11,12. However, reliable instrumental records of the IOD cover only the past 50 years1,3, and there is no consensus on long-term variability of the IOD or its possible response to greenhouse gas forcing13. Here we use a suite of coral oxygen-isotope records to reconstruct a basin-wide index of IOD behaviour since AD 1846. Our record reveals an increase in the frequency and strength of IOD events during the twentieth century, which is associated with enhanced seasonal upwelling in the eastern Indian Ocean. Although the El Nino Southern Oscillation has historically influenced the variability of both the IOD and the Asian monsoon3,8,10, we find that the recent intensification of the IOD coincides with the development of direct, positive IOD–monsoon feedbacks. We suggest that projected greenhouse warming may lead to a redistribution of rainfall across the Indian Ocean and a growing interdependence between the IOD and Asian monsoon precipitation variability.

Ice-core records of methanesulphonic acid (MSA) provide a potentially powerful tool for producing proxy records of sea ice, a critical but poorly understood component of the Earth’s climate system. However, MSA is able to diffuse through solid ice, and here we examine the effect of two different methods of frozen storage on the preservation of MSA in archived ice-core samples. Re-analysis of archived ice sticks confirms that MSA diffuses out of ice cores archived in this manner. Despite MSA losses of up to 39% after 7 years storage, the ice sticks studied here preserve much of the variability of the original MSA record, suggesting that useful proxy records can be obtained from archived ice sticks. Furthermore, re-analysis of ice-core samples that had been refrozen into discrete bottled samples for storage demonstrates that it is possible to archive ice samples in a way that prevents MSA loss. In this case, accurate records of MSA variability and concentration were preserved even over storage periods of 15 years. This has important implications for the storage of ice cores and subsequent determination of MSA, and demonstrates that ice storage history needs to be considered when interpreting MSA records.

The concentrations of various chemicals, particles and gasses in ice-cores hold a continuous record of climatic and environmental information dating back hundreds of thousands of years. In order to interpret these data we must first learn about their underlying, unobserved time scale. We present a fully Bayesian univariate approach to obtaining a marginal posterior distribution for the time of year, as well as the date, at each depth.

Over the past 50 years, warming of the Antarctic Peninsula has been accompanied by accelerating glacier mass loss and the retreat and collapse of ice shelves. A key driver of ice loss is summer melting; however, it is not usually possible to specifically reconstruct the summer conditions that are critical for determining ice melt in Antarctic. Here we reconstruct changes in ice-melt intensity and mean temperature on the northern Antarctic Peninsula since AD 1000 based on the identification of visible melt layers in the James Ross Island ice core and local mean annual temperature estimates from the deuterium content of the ice. During the past millennium, the coolest conditions and lowest melt occurred from about AD 1410 to 1460, when mean temperature was 1.6 degrees C lower than that of 1981-2000. Since the late 1400s, there has been a nearly tenfold increase in melt intensity from 0.5 to 4.9%. The warming has occurred in progressive phases since about AD 1460, but intensification of melt is nonlinear, and has largely occurred since the mid-twentieth century. Summer melting is now at a level that is unprecedented over the past 1,000 years. We conclude that ice on the Antarctic Peninsula is now particularly susceptible to rapid increases in melting and loss in response to relatively small increases in mean temperature.

[1] The accumulation, isotopic and chemical signals of an ice core from James Ross Island, Antarctica, are investigated for the interval from 1967 to 2008. Over this interval, comparison with station, satellite and reanalysis data allows for a detailed assessment of the environmental information preserved in the ice. Accumulation at James Ross Island is enhanced during years when the circumpolar westerlies are weak, allowing more precipitation events to reach the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula. The stable water isotope composition of the ice core has an interannual temperature dependence consistent with the spatial isotope-temperature gradient across Antarctica, and preserves information about both summer and winter temperature variability in the region. Sea salts in the ice core are derived from open water sources in the marginal sea ice zone to the north of James Ross Island and transported to the site by strengthened northerly and westerly winds in the winter. A strong covariance with temperature means that the sea salt record may be able to be utilized, in conjunction with the isotope signal, as an indicator of winter temperature. Marine biogenic compounds in the ice core are derived from summer productivity within the sea ice zone to the south of James Ross Island. This source region may have become significant only in recent decades, when the collapse of nearby ice shelves established new sites of open water with high summer productivity. These findings provide a foundation for interpreting the environmental signals in the James Ross Island ice core, which extends though the whole Holocene and represents the oldest ice core that has been recovered from the Antarctic Peninsula region.

[1] This study uses ice core methanesulphonic acid (MSA) records from the Antarctic Peninsula, where temperatures have been warming faster than anywhere else in the Southern Hemisphere, to reconstruct the 20th century history of sea ice change in the adjacent Bellingshausen Sea. Using satellite‐derived sea ice and meteorological data, we show that ice core MSA records from this region are a reliable proxy for regional sea ice change, with years of increased winter sea ice extent recorded by increased ice core MSA concentrations. Our reconstruction suggests that the satellite‐observed sea ice decline in the Bellingshausen Sea during recent decades is part of a long‐term regional trend that has occurred throughout the 20th century. The long‐term perspective on sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea is consistent with evidence of 20th century warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and may reflect a progressive deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and, more recently, stratospheric ozone depletion. As a first‐order estimate, our MSA‐based reconstruction suggests that sea ice in the Bellingshausen Sea has retreated southward by ∼0.7° during the 20th century. Comparison with other 20th century sea ice observations, reconstructions, and model simulations provides a coherent picture of Antarctic sea ice decline during the 20th century, although with regional‐scale differences evident in the timing and magnitude of this sea ice decline. This longer‐term perspective contrasts with the small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice that is observed in post‐1979 satellite data.

International audience; Diatom assemblages in marine cores and sea salt deposition fluxes in ice cores have been used as sea ice proxies in the southern hemisphere. Here, a marine and an ice core proxy record for the Indian Ocean covering the last two glacial cycles are compared in order to illustrate their potential and limitations. The marine core was extracted in a location completely ice free under present-day conditions, and therefore was unable to record changes to the recent sea ice extent. Similarly, no sea ice was recorded at that location during the previous interglacial period. During the last glacial period, however, the site was seasonally covered by sea ice, and the diatom assemblages allowed an estimation of average seasonal sea ice presence. The ice core data originated from the East Antarctic plateau. The marine sodium present in the ice core was used as a proxy of the sea-ice coverage and, on average, a larger sea ice surface led to an increased sea-salt aerosol flux, seen e.g. at the last glacial inception. However, the response of the sea salt flux to increasing sea ice extent diminished during peak glacial conditions when only minimal variability was recorded in the ice core record. A first-order approximation is used to take this non-linear response of the ice core sea ice proxy into account. Based on the ice core proxy record, sea ice extent was reduced considerably during the warm episodes of the previous two interglacial periods compared to modern sea ice extent, in particular during the peak warmth of the Last Interglacial. The ice core proxy also showed a very strong precessional variability (pronounced spectral peak at 23 ka period) over the past 240 ka. The advantage of combining the two proxy records lies in the complementary nature of their response. While the ice core proxy showed limited sensitivity during full glacial conditions, the marine proxy recorded the seasonal sea-ice coverage. Once the sea ice retreated south of the location of the marine core, the ice core proxy responded to changes in sea ice extent. A composite of marine and ice core records may thus provide a data basis for a more detailed reconstruction of sea ice around Antarctica over the last few glacial-interglacial cycles.

[1] Ice core records of methanesulfonic acid (MSA) from three sites around the Weddell Sea are investigated for their potential as sea ice proxies. It is found that the amount of MSA reaching the ice core sites decreases following years of increased winter sea ice in the Weddell Sea; opposite to the expected relationship if MSA is to be used as a sea ice proxy. It is also shown that this negative MSA-sea ice relationship cannot be explained by the influence that the extensive summer ice pack in the Weddell Sea has on MSA production area and transport distance. A historical record of sea ice from the northern Weddell Sea shows that the negative relationship between MSA and winter sea ice exists over interannual (∼7-year period) and multidecadal (∼20-year period) timescales. National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data suggest that this negative relationship is most likely due to variations in the strength of cold offshore wind anomalies traveling across the Weddell Sea, which act to synergistically increase sea ice extent (SIE) while decreasing MSA delivery to the ice core sites. Hence our findings show that in some locations atmospheric transport strength, rather than sea ice conditions, is the dominant factor that determines the MSA signal preserved in near-coastal ice cores. A cautious approach is thus required in using ice core MSA for reconstructing past sea ice conditions, including the need for networks of ice core records and multiproxy studies to assess the significance of past MSA changes at different locations around Antarctica.

A concerted effort has begun to gather and preserve archives of marine samples and descriptive data, giving scientists ready access to insights on ancient environments.