Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Fil: Jones, Julie. University of Sheffield; Reino Unido Fil: Gille, Sarah. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: Goose, Hugues J.. Université Catholique de Louvain; Bélgica Fil: Abram, Nerillie J.. The Australian National University; Australia Fil: Canziani, Pablo Osvaldo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo de las Ingenierías; Argentina Fil: Charman, Dan J.. University of Exeter; Reino Unido Fil: Clem, Kyle R.. Victoria University of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Crosta Xavier. Universite de Bordeaux; Francia Fil: de Lavergne, Casimir. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; Francia Fil: Eisenman, Ian. University of California at San Diego. Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Estados Unidos Fil: England, Matthew H.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Fogt, Ryan L.. Ohio University; Estados Unidos Fil: Frankcombe, Leela M.. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Marshall, Gareth J.. British Antartic Survey; Reino Unido Fil: Masson Delmotte, Valérie. Université de Paris-Saclay; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Morrison, Adele K.. University of Princeton; Estados Unidos Fil: Orsi, Anaïs J.. Université de Paris-Saclay; Francia Fil: Raphael, Marilyn N.. University of California; Estados Unidos Fil: Renwick, James A.. Victoria University of Wellington; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Schneider, David P.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Simpkins, Graham R.. University of California at Irvine. School of Physical Sciences. Department of Earth System Sciences; Estados Unidos Fil: Steig, Eric J.. University of Washington; Estados Unidos Fil: Steni, Barbara. Universita' Ca' Foscari Di Venezia; Italia Fil: Swingedow, Didier. Universite de Bordeaux; Francia Fil: Vance, Tessa R.. Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre; Australia