301. 考虑风险价值的不确定性水资源优化配置.
- Author
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付 强, 李佳鸿, 刘 东, and 李天霄
- Abstract
To ensure the sustainable water development of regional agricultural and improve the use efficiency of water, it is very important to optimize the allocation of water resources. There are many uncertain factors in the process of the water resources allocation in the food production areas with the change of the system environment in China, and in the pursuit of the minimum cost, there are also many uncertain risks. Choosing the 5 important agricultural regions, i.e. Qitaihe, Jiamusi, Shuangyashan, Hegang and Jixi located on the Sanjiang Plain as the study area, by using the method of interval two-stage stochastic programming method and introducing the risk appetite, the surface water and groundwater joint scheduling is established under the condition of water resources optimal allocation, and the water deficit and the optimal configuration of water law for each administrative region are analyzed. The results show that the surface water is much deficient in Shuangyashan and Jixi during the water distribution process, where the mainly exploited is the groundwater; for Jiamusi, which is an administrative region with larger grain production area, the water demand is bigger, and the external water supply is more; for Qitaihe and Hegang where the planting areas are lesser, considering the cost of water diversion and grain yield, the less external water is needed to pilot to reduce the cost. The calculation results show that the changing rules of water deficit and the optimal allocation of water under different administrative region and different water level are as follows: Qitaihe and Jixi have small change under different water level, Jiamusi and Shuangyashan have great change under different water level, and the minimum cost of water under the optimal allocation is 736.12×108-843.40×108 yuan. At last, the paper analyzes the minimum cost of optimal allocation of water resources under different probability of water level and different risk preference scenario on Sanjiang Plain. Because under the low water level, it is easy to cause the high demand for water resource system, and an increased level of risk aversion can be instead of water cost increase, the cost of water shortage will be increased to meet the basic requirements of crops, which changes from 344.2×108-355.4×108 to 411.5×108-430.7×108 yuan; at a high level of the water, the increase of the level of risk aversion can reduce the cost which caused by the loss of oversupply, and thus reduce the total cost of water from 422.5×108-435.3×108 to 351.7×108-365.3×108 yuan; in the middle level, it is between low and high water level. This model conjoins the advantages of the interval of two-stage stochastic programming and the characteristics of the risk value model. In the joint allocation of water resources, the model comprehensively considers the cost and risk, effectively saves water cost, and enhances the ability of water resources system to avoid risk. The model makes up for the deficiency of the traditional interval two-stage stochastic programming method, introduces the risk preference of decision makers to find the minimum cost of water resources’ optimal allocation scheme under the condition of uncertainty, avoids concentrating the risk loss in a certain region, and facilitates reasonable water resource allocation for policymakers in different administrative regions on the Sanjiang Plain. The water allocation in different region and different time realizes the dynamic distribution of multi-water source irrigation system. This model can ensure the need of crop grow when the irrigation water resources are rationally configured in the growing period of the crop, and effectively avoids the waste of water resources, as well as improves the efficiency of irrigation water, which is of great significance for sustainable use of water resources. The research improves the utilization efficiency of water resources and provides the basis for the planning of regional water management, which can more truly reflect the uncertainty for optimization allocation of water resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2016
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