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International audience; We compare disagreement in expectations and the frequency of forecast revisions among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. We provide evidence of disagreement among all categories of agents. There is however a strong heterogeneity across categories: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. This translates into a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revision across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households last revise less frequently. We are also able to explore the external validity of experimental expectations.

International audience; The paper proposes a novel point-wise entropy approach to measure the time-varying losses in the value of information that investors associate with market signals, financial and economic indicators, and news. We cast our approach in a Bayesian framework and assume that market agents update their beliefs to incoming signals based on a prior information set. By exploiting the distribution rather than the time-series properties of information signals, our method is able to construct univariate signal-specific, but also composite proxies of information loss, with the latter being more efficient in reducing misleading effects and interpretation errors. As an empirical illustration, we construct information loss proxies for the US equity market from several mainstream information signals and find that the majority of information loss indicators can influence investors’ attention, which then intermediates the impact of information signals on market outcomes. Finally, we show that, by relying on composites rather than univariate proxies, market agents can diversify and thus reduce their information losses when interpreting signals associated with the same underlying event.

International audience; The distinction between effort and other factors, such as family background, matters for correcting policies and normative reasons when we appeal to inequality of opportunity. We take advantage of a purposefully designed survey on secondary schools in rural Bangladesh to offer a comprehensive view of the importance of overall effort when measuring inequalities of opportunity in education. The analysis comprises decomposition exercises of the predicted variance of student performance in mathematics and English by source (effort, circumstances, etc.) and subgroup (within- and between-schools) based on parametric estimates of educational production functions. Pupils’ effort, preferences, and talents contribute between 31% and 40% of the total predicted variances in performance scores. The contribution of overall effort falls by 10% when the correlation between effort and circumstances is taken into account. These findings are robust to the choice of estimation strategy (i.e. combined within- and between-schools variation models versus multilevel random-effect models). All in all, these results advocate that social determinism in education can be mitigated by individual effort at school.

This paper was presented for the first time during the 2018 SASE Annual Conference that was held in June 2018 at Doshisha University. A revised version of this paper is to be published in The Japanese Political Economy.; This paper aims at finding out how the shareholder-value pursuit has affected labor policies at large Japanese listed enterprises. It concentrates on the issue of labor bifurcation, whereby the proportion of nonregular employees has grown rapidly over the last two decades, currently approaching the numbers of regular employees.In Japan, corporate governance reforms became key to structural macroeconomic changes according to the 2013 “Japan Revitalization Strategy” formulated by the Cabinet Office. This document mandated the creation of the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 – an index called to accommodate the most investor-friendly joint-stock companies. The move towards a shareholder model has been further reinforced through a rapid surge in foreignstockholding that started during the post-bubble period of the mid-1990s. At the same time, the externalities of increased returns to stockholders have been the changes in the related domains of management and labor, which I explain through the application of the political economic theory. This theory underlines the importance of inclusion into a “political bloc” for being eligible for economic benefits. Consequently, I argue that increased returns to politically privileged shareholders have been achieved at the expense of a growing proportion of unprivileged nonregular employees.The evidence yields support to the argument about the positive correlation between shareholder value and the proportion of nonregulars. On the other hand, foreign stockholding does not appear to be significantly correlated with the increase in nonregular employment. In turn, the study has found that the proportion of nonregular employees is significantly correlated with domestic ownership that characterizes higher managerial entrenchment.

International audience; We review the extensive literature on systemic risk and connect it to the current regulatory debate. While we take stock of the achievements of this rapidly growing field, we identify a gap between two main approaches. The first one studies different sources of systemic risk in isolation, uses confidential data, and inspires targeted but complex regulatory tools. The second approach uses market data to produce global measures which are not directly connected to any particular theory, but could support a more efficient regulation. Bridging this gap will require encompassing theoretical models and improved data disclosure.