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Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents
- Source :
- European Economic Review, European Economic Review, 2022, 146, pp.104175. ⟨10.2139/ssrn.3928619⟩
- Publication Year :
- 2021
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2021.
-
Abstract
- International audience; We compare disagreement in expectations and the frequency of forecast revisions among five categories of agents: households, firms, professional forecasters, policymakers and participants to laboratory experiments. We provide evidence of disagreement among all categories of agents. There is however a strong heterogeneity across categories: while policymakers and professional forecasters exhibit low disagreement, firms and households show strong disagreement. This translates into a heterogeneous frequency of forecast revision across categories of agents, with policymakers revising more frequently their forecasts than firms and professional forecasters. Households last revise less frequently. We are also able to explore the external validity of experimental expectations.
- Subjects :
- History
JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E7 - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics
[QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin]
Polymers and Plastics
inflation expectations
experimental forecasts
JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
survey forecasts
[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
forecast revisions
Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
disagreement
central bank forecasts
JEL: E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
Business and International Management
information frictions
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00142921
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- European Economic Review, European Economic Review, 2022, 146, pp.104175. ⟨10.2139/ssrn.3928619⟩
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....f992531395e4d480e804a206795db85f