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Nowadays, modeling of tephra fallout hazard is coupled with probabilistic analysis that takes into account the natural variability of the volcanic phenomena in terms of eruption probability, eruption sizes, vent position, and meteorological conditions. In this framework, we present a prototypal methodology to carry out the long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the active Neapolitan volcanoes: Somma–Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The FALL3D model (v.8.0) has been used to run thousands of numerical simulations (1500 per eruption size class), considering the ECMWF ERA5 meteorological dataset over the last 30 years. The output in terms of tephra ground load has been processed within a new workflow for large-scale, high-resolution volcanic hazard assessment, relying on a Bayesian procedure, in order to provide the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds given critical thresholds at a target site within a 50-year exposure time. Our results are expressed in terms of absolute mean hazard maps considering different levels of aggregation, from the impact of each volcanic source and eruption size class to the quantification of the total hazard. This work provides, for the first time, a multi-volcano probabilistic hazard assessment posed by tephra fallout, comparable with those used for seismic phenomena and other natural disasters. This methodology can be applied to any other volcanic areas or over different exposure times, allowing researchers to account for the eruptive history of the target volcanoes that, when available, could include the occurrence of less frequent large eruptions, representing critical elements for risk evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground motion modification over large areas is generally evaluated by focusing on source effects disregarding local lithostratigraphic site conditions. Hence, amplification maps of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity are proposed to improve the forecast of ground motion on a national scale. Topological information about litho-type successions and soil mechanical behaviour were retrieved from the Italian database of seismic microzonation and more than 30 million of seismic site response analyses were performed to quantify the amplification factors (i.e. the ratio between expected ground motion at the site of interest and that at the outcropping engineering bedrock). The maximum value of the amplified peak ground acceleration on the Italian territory results in about twice as much as the value expected at the outcropping of the engineering bedrock. Finally, damage scenario maps based on the amplified ground motion could be produced as a supporting tool for urban planning and emergency system management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Extracting tectonic signals from the landscape is an important challenge for constraining the style and rate of deformation associated with active faults, especially where their displacement history cannot be independently determined. Based on previous paleoseismological data coupled with new geomorphological field work and 14C dating of geomorphic markers, we analysed the geomorphic signal of the along‐strike differential throw of the Cittanova Fault in southern Calabria (Italy), the recent activity of which is already well documented and constrained. Through DTM‐derived stream power law parameters (SL and χ), we provide evidence of drainage network disequilibrium and reorganization in response to fault growth and deformation style. Furthermore, a methodological test of the reliability of the χ metric as a proxy for the differential throw along the strike of active normal faults provided good preliminary results, consistent with a strong inverse linear correlation with fault throw. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The central Italy Apennines were rocket in 2016 by the strongest earthquakes of the past 35 years. Two main shocks ( Mw 6.2 and Mw 6.6) between the end of August and October caused the death of almost 300 people, and the destruction of 50 villages and small towns scattered along 40 km in the hanging wall of the N165° striking Mount Vettore fault system, that is, the structure responsible for the earthquakes. The 24 August southern earthquake, besides causing all the casualties, razed to the ground the small medieval town of Amatrice and dozens of hamlets around it. The 30 October main shock crushed definitely all the villages of the whole epicentral area (up to 11 intensity degree), extending northward the level of destruction and inducing heavy damage even to the 30 km far Camerino town. The survey of the macroseismic effects started the same day of the first main shock and continued during the whole seismic sequence, even during and after the strong earthquakes at the end of October, allowing the definition of a detailed picture of the damage distribution, day by day. Here we present the results of the final survey in terms of Mercalli-Cancani-Sieberg intensity, which account for the cumulative effects of the whole 2016 sequence (465 intensity data points, besides 435 related to the 24 August and 54 to the 26 October events, respectively). The distribution of the highest intensity data points evidenced the lack of any possible overlap between the 2016 earthquakes and the strongest earthquakes of the region, making this sequence a unique case in the seismic history of Italy. In turn, the cross matching with published paleoseismic data provided some interesting insights concerning the seismogenic behavior of the Mount Vettore fault in comparison with other active normal faults of the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New palaeoseismic trenching across the main splay of the Fucino fault system provides evidence for a High Middle Age surface-faulting episode conceivably associated with a disruptive earthquake, similar to the one that occurred in 1915 (Mw 7.0). The existence of this event, which has already been suggested by some previous studies, implies a shortening of the recurrence interval for Mw 7.0 earthquakes with respect to current knowledge. If we assume that the palaeoseismic Holocene record is complete, this shortening is focused in the historical period, when the Fucino structure sourced three strong earthquakes in only 1.4 ka. A similar clustering of energy release in the recent past is consistent with both palaeoseismological studies on other faults affecting the Apennine divide, and the high GPS strain rates observed in the same chain sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 23 km long Sulmona normal fault flanks the southwestern slope of the Mount Morrone range in the central Apennines. To date, the recent activity of this structure is uncertain, as the faulting evidence concerns only undated deposits and the fault cannot be associated with any of the strong historical earthquakes (Mw > 6.5) of the region. Our observation from ~ 1 Ma offset slope breccias, coupled with new tephrochronological data on faulted early Last Glacial lacustrine infilling of the Sulmona basin, implies a vertical slip rate of ~0.5 mm/yr over both the long term and middle term. Moreover, at the apex of a Late Pleistocene alluvial fan, radiocarbon dating of offset stratigraphy uncovered in four paleoseismological trenches shows that repeated earthquakes resulted in more than 4 m of vertical offset since ~9 ka, providing again a minimum Holocene vertical slip rate of ~0.5 mm/yr. In combination with the results of the trench exposure, we define four faulting events in the past ~9 ky B.P., and at least one before then. The most recent is constrained by robust radiocarbon dates as the middle of the second century A.D. The penultimate event was around the middle of the fifth millennium B.P., whereas the other two events are dated in a time between 8.5 ky to 6.5 ky B.P. and around 9 ky cal B.P. The oldest occurred before 9.5 ky B.P. As well as revealing the unexpected paleoseismic history of the Sulmona silent fault, our data provide a recurrence time for Mw >6.5 earthquakes of ~2.4 ky versus an elapsed time of ~ 1.85 ky since the last event. The latter matches with an earthquake previously hypothesized through archaeoseismic clues collected from several Roman settlements of the Sulmona Plain, all of which were dated to halfway through the second century A.D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT A multi-proxy record was acquired from a Late Pleistocene lacustrine succession in the Sulmona basin, central Italy. Previous and new tephrostratigraphic analyses of six volcanic ash layers constrain the investigated interval to between 92.3 and 115.0 ka. The δ18O composition is interpreted as a proxy for precipitation amount in the high-altitude catchment of the karst recharge system. The oxygen record shows millennial variability that is consistent with Greenland Interstadials GI25-23 and North Atlantic cold events C24-C22, indicating a strong Mediterranean-North Atlantic climate teleconnection. However, while no appreciable isotopic difference between the three interstadials is revealed by the Greenland record, the Sulmona section reveals a wetter climate during GI24 compared with GI23 and GI25. Comparison of our record with speleothem and pollen data from central and southern Italy suggests higher seasonality of the precipitation (wet winter-dry summer) for GI24, which matches a precession minimum. The wettest period recorded at Sulmona is also coincident with the deposition of Sapropel S4 in the Tyrrhenian Sea, suggesting a teleconnection between a higher seasonality in the western Mediterranean and strengthening of the boreal monsoon system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Integrated electron microprobe analyses (EMPAs) on glass and Sr-Nd isotope analyses have been performed on 17 tephras from the Middle Pleistocene Mercure lacustrine succession, southern Apennines. Two 40Ar/39Ar ages and the recognition of four relevant tephras from Colli Albani, Sabatini and possibly Roccamonfina volcanoes allowed us to ascribe the investigated succession to the late Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 15-12 interval (560-440 ka). The Sr-Nd isotopes and major element glass compositions allowed us to attribute 10 out of the other 13 tephras to a poorly known activity of the Roccamofina volcano, whereas two layers were tentatively attributed to previously unknown Middle Pleistocene activity of Ponza Island or Campanian volcanoes, and one to Salina Island. The tephrostratigraphic correlation of the Mercure tephras with the Acerno lacustrine pollen record (Campania) also allowed us to evaluate the climatostratigraphic position of the tephras within the framework of the MIS 15-12 climatic variability. These results were obtained by combining the Sr-Nd isotope ratio with EMPA and 40Ar/39Ar geochronological data. This confirms the notable consistency of this approach for studying the Mediterranean Middle Pleistocene tephrostratigraphy, which, despite its great potential for both volcanology and Quaternary studies, has been hitherto barely explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY Urgent urban-planning problems related to the 2009 April, Mw 6.3, L'Aquila earthquake prompted immediate excavation of palaeoseismological trenches across the active faults bordering the Aterno river valley; namely, the Mt. Marine, Mt. Pettino and Paganica faults. Cross-cutting correlations amongst existing and new trenches that were strengthened by radiocarbon ages and archaeological constraints show unambiguously that these three investigated structures have been active since the Last Glacial Maximum period, as seen by the metric offset that affected the whole slope/alluvial sedimentary succession up to the historical deposits. Moreover, in agreement with both 18th century accounts and previous palaeoseismological data, we can affirm now that these faults were responsible for the catastrophic 1703 February 2, earthquake ( Mw 6.7). The data indicate that the Paganica-San Demetrio fault system has ruptured in the past both together with the conterminous Mt. Pettino-Mt. Marine fault system, along more than 30 km and causing an Mw 6.7 earthquake, and on its own, along ca. 19 km, as in the recent 2009 event and in the similar 1461 AD event. This behaviour of the L'Aquila faults has important implications in terms of seismic hazard assessment, while it also casts new light on the ongoing fault linkage processes amongst these L'Aquila faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present the first evidence of surface rupture along the causative fault of the 14 January 1703 earthquake (Mw 6.9, Italian central Apennines). This event was sourced by the ~30 km-long, Norcia fault system, responsible for another catastrophic event in Roman times, besides several destructive earthquakes in the last millennium. A dozen paleoseismological excavations have already investigated the surface ruptures occurred during the Holocene along the Cascia-Mt Alvagnano segments, as well as along secondary splays close to the Medieval Norcia Walls. Remarkably, the master fault bounding the Norcia-Campi basins have never be proved to rupture at the surface. An antique limekiln that was improvidently set across the main fault scarp provides the amazing evidence of an abrupt offset in the 1703 earthquake, which likely occurred during a liming process of carbonate stones. Obviously, the limekiln became useless, and was progressively buried by slope debris. The amount of the offset and the kinematics indicators surveyed in the site allow the strengthening of our knowledge on the seismogenic potential of the Norcia fault system, on its geomorphic rule, and on its impact on the human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]