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Around the world, wetland vulnerability to sea‐level rise (SLR) depends on different factors including tidal regimes, topography, creeks and estuary geometry, sediment availability, vegetation type, etc. The Plum Island estuary (PIE) is a mesotidal wetland system on the east coast of the United States. This research applied a newly updated Hydro‐MEM (integrated hydrodynamic‐marsh) model to assess the impacts of intermediate‐low (50 cm), intermediate (1 m), and intermediate‐high (1.5 m) SLR on marsh evolution by the year 2100. Model advancements include capturing vegetation change, inorganic and below and aboveground organic matter portion of marsh platform accretion, and mudflat creation. Although the results indicate a low vulnerability marsh at the PIE, the vegetation changes from high to low marsh under all SLR scenarios (2%–22%), with the higher bounds belonging to higher rise scenarios. Lower SLR produces more productive marsh (13% gain in high productivity regions), whereas the highest SLR scenario causes increased tidal inundation, which leads to loss in productivity (12% change from high to low productivity regions), generation of mudflats (17% of the domain land), and marsh migration to higher lands. Sensitive nonlinear tidal flow changes, which may be increased or decreased with SLR as a result of mudflat creation, marsh migration, and bottom friction change, emphasize the importance of integrated modeling approaches that include dynamic marsh feedbacks in hydrodynamic modeling and varying hydrodynamic effects on the marsh system. Key Points: Plum Island mesotidal marsh system adapts itself to most of the sea‐level rise (SLR) scenarios but will undergo changes in vegetation typeLower SLR scenarios are favorable for Plum Island estuary marsh productivity but higher SLR results in low marsh dominance, mudflat creation, and migrationIntegrated modeling that couples biological feedbacks and hydrodynamics is critical to capture flow dynamics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A database of seamless topographic and bathymetric cross-shore profiles along with metrics of the associated morphological characteristics based on the latest available lidar data ranging from 2011-2020 and bathymetry from the Continuously Updated Digital Elevation Model was developed for U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico open-ocean sandy coastlines. Cross-shore resolution ranges from 2.5 m for topographic and nearshore portions to 10 m for offshore portions. Topographic morphological characteristics include: foredune crest elevation, foredune toe elevation, foredune width, foredune volume, foredune relative height, beach width, beach volume, beach slope, and nearshore slope. This database was developed to serve as inputs for current and future morphological modeling studies aimed at providing real-time estimates of coastal change magnitudes resulting from imminent tropical storm and hurricane landfall. Beyond this need for model inputs, the database of cross-shore profiles and characteristic metrics could serve as a tool for coastal scientists to visualize and to analyze varying local, regional, and national variations in coastal morphology for varying types of studies and projects related to Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico sandy coastline environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Models of alongshore sediment transport during quiescent conditions, storm‐driven barrier island morphology, and poststorm dune recovery are integrated to assess decadal barrier island evolution under scenarios of increased sea levels and variability in storminess (intensity and frequency). Model results indicate barrier island response regimes of keeping pace, narrowing, flattening, deflation (narrowing and flattening), and aggradation. Under lower storminess scenarios, more areas of the island experienced narrowing due to collision. Under higher storminess scenarios, more areas experienced flattening due to overwash and inundation. Both increased sea levels and increased storminess resulted in breaching when the majority of the island was not keeping pace and deflation was the dominant regime due to increased overtopping. Under the highest storminess scenario, the island was unable to recover elevation after storms and drowned in just 10 years. Plain Language Summary: Barrier islands protect mainland coastal communities during storms. In the future, the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) threaten barrier islands with increased inundation and loss of land. Barrier islands can keep pace with SLR by moving sand across the island during storm events to maintain height and width. However, if storms are too intense or sea levels are too high, the island may drown. This study uses computational models to assess the future response of a barrier island to higher sea levels and changes in frequency and intensity of storms (storminess). We found that the barrier island exhibits five behaviors in response to storms and SLR: keeping pace by maintaining height and width, losing width but maintaining height, losing height but maintaining width, losing height and width, and gaining height and width. These behaviors shifted based on the amount of SLR and storminess. Both increased SLR and increased storminess resulted in less of the island keeping pace and more of the island losing height and width; in some cases, this caused channels to be cut through the island. Under the most frequent and intense storm scenarios, the island lost significant amounts of land and was unable to recover. Key Points: Decadal barrier island behaviors shift in response to changes in sea level and storminessIncreased sea levels and storminess may cause island deflation and increase vulnerability to breachingBarrier island drowning may occur in a duration of only 10 years under high storminess and sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the integrated influence of sea level rise ( SLR) and future morphology on tidal hydrodynamics along the Northern Gulf of Mexico ( NGOM) coast including seven embayments and three ecologically and economically significant estuaries. A large-domain hydrodynamic model was used to simulate astronomic tides for present and future conditions (circa 2050 and 2100). Future conditions were simulated by imposing four SLR scenarios to alter hydrodynamic boundary conditions and updating shoreline position and dune heights using a probabilistic model that is coupled to SLR. Under the highest SLR scenario, tidal amplitudes within the bays increased as much as 67% (10.0 cm) because of increases in the inlet cross-sectional area. Changes in harmonic constituent phases indicated that tidal propagation was faster in the future scenarios within most of the bays. Maximum tidal velocities increased in all of the bays, especially in Grand Bay where velocities doubled under the highest SLR scenario. In addition, the ratio of the maximum flood to maximum ebb velocity decreased in the future scenarios (i.e., currents became more ebb dominant) by as much as 26% and 39% in Weeks Bay and Apalachicola, respectively. In Grand Bay, the flood-ebb ratio increased (i.e., currents became more flood dominant) by 25% under the lower SLR scenarios, but decreased by 16% under the higher SLR as a result of the offshore barrier islands being overtopped, which altered the tidal prism. Results from this study can inform future storm surge and ecological assessments of SLR, and improve monitoring and management decisions within the NGOM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictions of coastal evolution driven by episodic and persistent processes associated with storms and relative sea-level rise ( SLR) are required to test our understanding, evaluate our predictive capability, and to provide guidance for coastal management decisions. Previous work demonstrated that the spatial variability of long-term shoreline change can be predicted using observed SLR rates, tide range, wave height, coastal slope, and a characterization of the geomorphic setting. The shoreline is not sufficient to indicate which processes are important in causing shoreline change, such as overwash that depends on coastal dune elevations. Predicting dune height is intrinsically important to assess future storm vulnerability. Here, we enhance shoreline-change predictions by including dune height as a variable in a statistical modeling approach. Dune height can also be used as an input variable, but it does not improve the shoreline-change prediction skill. Dune-height input does help to reduce prediction uncertainty. That is, by including dune height, the prediction is more precise but not more accurate. Comparing hindcast evaluations, better predictive skill was found when predicting dune height (0.8) compared with shoreline change (0.6). The skill depends on the level of detail of the model and we identify an optimized model that has high skill and minimal overfitting. The predictive model can be implemented with a range of forecast scenarios, and we illustrate the impacts of a higher future sea-level. This scenario shows that the shoreline change becomes increasingly erosional and more uncertain. Predicted dune heights are lower and the dune height uncertainty decreases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the geophysical influence of the combined effects of historic sea level rise (SLR) and morphology on tidal hydrodynamics in the Grand Bay estuary, located in the Mississippi Sound. Since 1848, the landscape of the Mississippi Sound has been significantly altered as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors including the migration of the offshore Mississippi–Alabama (MSAL) barrier islands and the construction of navigational channels. As a result, the Grand Bay estuary has undergone extensive erosion resulting in the submergence of its protective barrier island, Grand Batture. A large-domain hydrodynamic model was used to simulate present (circa 2005) and past conditions (circa 1848, 1917, and 1960) with unique sea levels, bathymetry, topography and shorelines representative of each time period. Additionally, a hypothetical scenario was performed in which Grand Batture Island exists under 2005 conditions in order to observe the influence of the island on tidal hydrodynamics within the Grand Bay estuary. Changes in tidal amplitudes from the historic conditions varied. Within the Sound, tidal amplitudes were unaltered due to the open exposed shoreline; however, in semi-enclosed embayments outside of the Sound, tidal amplitudes increased. In addition, harmonic constituent phases were slower historically. The position of the MSAL barrier island inlets influenced tidal currents within the Sound; the westward migration of Petit Bois Island allowed stronger tidal velocities to be centered on the Grand Batture Island. Maximum tidal velocities within the Grand Bay estuary were 5 cm/s faster historically, and reversed from being flood dominant in 1848 to ebb dominant in 2005. If the Grand Batture Island was reconstructed under 2005 conditions, tidal amplitudes and phases would not be altered, indicating that the offshore MSAL barrier islands and SLR have a greater influence on these tidal parameters within the estuary. However, maximum tidal velocities would increase by as much as 5 cm/s (63%) and currents would become more ebb dominant. Results of this study illustrate the hydrodynamic response of the system to SLR and the changing landscape, and provide insight into potential future changes under SLR and barrier island evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal responses to sea level rise ( SLR) include inundation of wetlands, increased shoreline erosion, and increased flooding during storm events. Hydrodynamic parameters such as tidal ranges, tidal prisms, tidal asymmetries, increased flooding depths and inundation extents during storm events respond nonadditively to SLR. Coastal morphology continually adapts toward equilibrium as sea levels rise, inducing changes in the landscape. Marshes may struggle to keep pace with SLR and rely on sediment accumulation and the availability of suitable uplands for migration. Whether hydrodynamic, morphologic, or ecologic, the impacts of SLR are interrelated. To plan for changes under future sea levels, coastal managers need information and data regarding the potential effects of SLR to make informed decisions for managing human and natural communities. This review examines previous studies that have accounted for the dynamic, nonlinear responses of hydrodynamics, coastal morphology, and marsh ecology to SLR by implementing more complex approaches rather than the simplistic 'bathtub' approach. These studies provide an improved understanding of the dynamic effects of SLR on coastal environments and contribute to an overall paradigm shift in how coastal scientists and engineers approach modeling the effects of SLR, transitioning away from implementing the 'bathtub' approach. However, it is recommended that future studies implement a synergetic approach that integrates the dynamic interactions between physical and ecological environments to better predict the impacts of SLR on coastal systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wave energy conversion technologies have recently attracted more attention as part of global efforts to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy resources. While ocean waves can provide renewable energy, they can also be destructive to coastal areas that are often densely populated and vulnerable to coastal erosion. There have been a variety of efforts to mitigate the impacts of wave- and storm-induced erosion; however, they are either temporary solutions or approaches that are not able to adapt to a changing climate. This study explores a green and sustainable approach to mitigating coastal erosion from hurricanes through wave energy conversion. A barrier island, Dauphin Island, off the coast of Alabama, is used as a test case. The potential use of wave energy converter farms to mitigate erosion due to hurricane storm surges while simultaneously generating renewable energy is explored through simulations that are forced with storm data using the XBeach model. It is shown that wave farms can impact coastal morphodynamics and have the potential to reduce dune and beach erosion, predominantly in the western portion of the island. The capacity of wave farms to influence coastal morphodynamics varies with the storm intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nourishment has shown to be an effective method for short-term storm protection along barrier islands and sandy beaches by reducing flooding, wave attack and erosion. However, the ability of nourishment to mitigate the effects of storms and sea level rise (SLR) and improve coastal resilience over decadal time scales is not well understood. This study uses integrated models of storm-driven hydrodynamics, morphodynamics and post-storm dune recovery to assess the effectiveness of beach and dune nourishment on barrier island morphological resilience over a 30-year period, accounting for storms and a moderate amount of SLR. Results show that at the end of the 30 years, nourishment contributes to maintaining island volumes by increasing barrier height and width compared with a no-action scenario (i.e., no nourishment, only natural recovery). During storms where the collision regime was dominant, higher volumes of sand were lost from the wider beach in the nourishment scenario than in the no-action scenario. During stronger storms, nourishment reduced dune overtopping compared with the no-action scenario, allowing the island to maintain height and width. Additionally, nourishment was particularly effective in reducing breaching during back-to-back storms occurring in the same year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal zone managers require models that predict barrier island change on decadal time scales to estimate coastal vulnerability, and plan habitat restoration and coastal protection projects. To meet these needs, methods must be available for predicting dune recovery as well as dune erosion. In the present study, an empirical dune growth model (EDGR) was developed to predict the evolution of the primary foredune of a barrier island. Within EDGR, an island is represented as a sum of Gaussian shape functions representing dunes, berms, and the underlying island form. The model evolves the foredune based on estimated terminal dune height and location inputs. EDGR was assessed against observed dune evolution along the western end of Dauphin Island, Alabama over the 10 years following Hurricane Katrina (2005). The root mean square error with EDGR (ranging from 0.18 to 0.74 m over the model domain) was reduced compared to an alternate no-change model (0.69–0.96 m). Hindcasting with EDGR also supports the study of dune evolution processes. At Dauphin Island, results suggest that a low-lying portion of the site was dominated by overwash for ~5 years after Katrina, before approaching their terminal height and becoming growth-limited after 2010. EDGR's computational efficiency allows dune evolution to be rapidly predicted and enables ensemble predictions to constrain the uncertainty that may result if terminal dune characteristics are unknown. In addition, EDGR can be coupled with an external model for estimating dune erosion and/or the long-term evolution of other subaerial features to allow decadal-scale prediction of barrier island evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antecedent topography is an important aspect of coastal morphology when studying and forecasting coastal change hazards. The uncertainty in morphologic response of storm-impact models and their use in short-term hazard forecasting and decadal forecasting is important to account for when considering a coupled model framework. This study provided a methodology to investigate uncertainty of profile response within the storm impact model XBeach related to varying antecedent topographies. A parameterized island Gaussian fit (PIGF) model generated an idealized baseline profile and a suite of idealized profiles that vary specific characteristics based on collated observed LiDAR data from Dauphin Island, AL, USA. Six synthetic storm scenarios were simulated on each of the idealized profiles with XBeach in both 1- and 2-dimensional setups and analyzed to determine the morphological response and uncertainty related to the varied antecedent topographies. Profile morphologic response tends to scale with storm magnitude but among the varied profiles there is greater uncertainty in profile response to the medium range storm scenarios than to the low and high magnitude storm scenarios. XBeach can be highly sensitive to morphologic thresholds, both antecedent and time-varying, especially with regards to beach slope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]