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Abstract Context This paper discusses the impact of urban expansion on the environment, including its effects on biodiversity conservation. As urban areas develop, natural habitats such as forests and agricultural lands are transformed into industrial, commercial, and residential uses, which alters landscape patterns and can lead to fragmentation. Fragmentation can have negative impacts on biodiversity, such as deforestation, alteration of watercourses leading to flooding, reduced availability of food, and increased pollution. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive and data-driven analysis of the urban expansion of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) over time, and its effects on biodiversity. The idea is to capture the changes in land cover and landscape patterns in GAMA from 1991 to 2022 and predict the region’s landscape patterns for 2030. This was achieved by performing a land cover change analysis of GAMA from 1991 to 2022; capturing the evolution of landscape patterns by calculating landscape metrics; and using multiradial fractal dimension as a transition variable to model and predict the land cover and landscape pattern of GAMA for 2030. The landscape metrics revealed extensive fragmentation of the Vegetation land cover type of GAMA, indicating a negative impact on biodiversity conservation, species movements, ecosystem functioning, and long-term ecological resilience. The trends highlight the importance of considering landscape connectivity, habitat fragmentation and spatial arrangement of land cover types for assessing ecological processes and urban development impacts on the environment. Additionally, multiradial fractal dimension of built-up areas is recommended as an explanatory variable for urban growth modelling.

Abstract This study investigates and forecasts the effects of implementing a newly proposed Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Lebanon on the urban land use evolution between the years 2019 and 2049. It contributes to the emerging scientific literature by proposing a technique intended to identify the potential urban land use impacts of BRT. The identification of these impacts as part of the feasibility study for the BRT is considered important for policymakers, local officials, and urban planners. The impacts are identified by conducting the Analytical Hierarchy Process, based on data collected via survey and interviews with real estate experts. The outcomes show that implementing a BRT service complemented with bus feeder services will: (i) reshape the urban fabric, in proximity to BRT routes and particularly around the stations, by triggering the Transit-Oriented Development and increasing the attractivity of urban development by 6 to 9% according to the distance from BRT route; and (ii) increase the attractivity of urban development projects by 11% in areas distant from the highway if these areas are characterized by high coverage of bus feeder services, low possibility of an increase in estate prices, and medium to high public acceptance of the proposed BRT.

Abstract This study examines how far the level of knowledge on a new public transport mode in Lebanon might affect mode choice. Indeed, passenger mode choice is a major issue associated with the effectiveness of new transport projects, as their level of effectiveness and feasibility will depend on the number of new adopters. This investigation is performed by developing mode choice models based on data collected via a questionnaire-based survey. The models were used to compare preferences among private cars, current public transport modes and a newly proposed Bus Rapid Transit system. The driving factors are divided into two categories: economic and psychological. The results reveal that explicit evaluations of several factors on the proposed transport modes yields mode choices different from direct evaluation. Besides, the structure of the utility function reveals that economic driving factors prevail over the psychological aspects, which is the opposite of what is observed with direct mode assessment. Moreover, people’s expectations of the proposed Bus Rapid Transit were significantly positive in terms of usability in addition to operational and economic reliability. This study shows that people’s level of knowledge of previous transport modes and their perceptual expectations of new travel modes must be taken into consideration in the feasibility studies of any transport implementations in the developing countries where the public transport services are discouraged.

Abstracts Monitoring and understanding the evolution of land use and land cover is a key factor for many environmental studies as well as for policymakers. Moreover, policymakers are interested in understanding the factors that have a significant impact on land use change. This paper analyses the dynamics of land use change in Lebanon between the years 1984 and 2019 and identifies the main factors behind this process. The use of LandSat satellite images enables the creation of land use maps at several periods and the monitoring of the evolution of built up areas as well as of green areas. Five periods emerge from this analysis, for which it is possible to propose explanatory factors, after an in-depth qualitative analysis. Within the framework of Structural Equation Models, a Confirmatory Factor Analysis is carried out to determine the impacts of several factors related to governance and financial data. Moreover, the urban sprawl is further investigated and explained by cultural, environmental, and infrastructural factors. The main results reveal that the development of built up areas is highly dependent on good funding conditions, whereas banking conditions and weak governance are correlated. The case of Lebanon presents specificities probably linked to historical and cultural considerations that deserve to be studied in future works. In the form of recommendations, new land use policies should be enacted to ensure sustainability in the form of an equilibrium between the urban development, from one side, and the preservation of natural resources and good environmental conditions on the other side. This could comprise the preservation of natural zones; the subsidization of the cultivation profession; and the encouragement of urban densification instead of horizontal sprawl.

Due to global urbanization, urban areas are encountering many environmental, social, and economic challenges. Different solutions have been proposed and implemented, such as nature-based solutions and green and blue infrastructure. Taking into consideration exogenous factors that are associated with these solutions is a crucial question to assess their possible effects. This study examines the possible explanatory factors and their evolution until the year 2054 of several solutions in the Île-de-France region: wastewater heat-recovery, surface geothermal energy, and heat-mitigation capacities of zones. This investigation is performed by a series of statistical models, namely the ordinary least squares (OLS) and the geographically weighted regressions (GWR), integrated within a geographic information system. The main driving factors were identified as land use/land cover and population distribution. The results show that GWR models capture a large part of spatial autocorrelation. Apropos of prediction results, areas with low, medium, and high potential for implementing specific solutions are determined. Furthermore, the implementation capacities of solutions are compared with the demand depicted as the need for slowing down the effects of surface urban heat islands and the dependence on fossil energy. Moreover, the heat mitigation capacities are not at all times distinctively linked to human activities. Further investigations are needed to discover the remaining possible reasons, particularly air quality, water, vegetation, and climate change.