Land use impacts of implementing a bus rapid transit system: case of Beirut southern corridor

Abstract This study investigates and forecasts the effects of implementing a newly proposed Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Lebanon on the urban land use evolution between the years 2019 and 2049. It contributes to the emerging scientific literature by proposing a technique intended to identify the potential urban land use impacts of BRT. The identification of these impacts as part of the feasibility study for the BRT is considered important for policymakers, local officials, and urban planners. The impacts are identified by conducting the Analytical Hierarchy Process, based on data collected via survey and interviews with real estate experts. The outcomes show that implementing a BRT service complemented with bus feeder services will: (i) reshape the urban fabric, in proximity to BRT routes and particularly around the stations, by triggering the Transit-Oriented Development and increasing the attractivity of urban development by 6 to 9% according to the distance from BRT route; and (ii) increase the attractivity of urban development projects by 11% in areas distant from the highway if these areas are characterized by high coverage of bus feeder services, low possibility of an increase in estate prices, and medium to high public acceptance of the proposed BRT.