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The Seveso III Directive 2012/18/EU imposes an obligation for the site operator to identify the major risks of the establishment, taking also into account technological accidents such as fires, explosions, and toxic releases that can occur following natural disasters (so-called NaTech risks). Floods, which are amplified by climate change, are among the most widespread natural dangers in European countries. The Safety Management System for the Prevention of Major Accidents in Seveso Sites is important in ensuring the correct implementation of the prevention and protection measures against major accidents originating from these events, with specific procedures for extreme weather conditions. Starting from the main outcomes of the analysis of industrial accidents, where floods have been identified as a significant and triggering cause, a specific focus is then presented on the main types of plants, infrastructures, and industrial equipment vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. These lessons learned are also useful examples of how organizations could manage these problems, through specific procedures, good practices, and methods used to assess the industry’s response to NaTech issues. A practical case of application of safety evaluations has therefore been reported for a type of industrial plant that is particularly relevant on the Italian territory, namely the underground storage of natural gas. The risks of floods are particularly relevant because of the extension of these plants over large areas, which means that parts of them can pass through areas subject to flooding. Finally, the article describes an in-depth analysis carried out on the NATECH risk of flooding for industrial plants, starting from the Italian technical regulation, with details to be considered in the risk assessment for the identification of the critical elements for safety, as well as the main prevention and protection measures for equipment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, technical accidents caused by natural disasters have caused huge losses. The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model to predict and prevent the risk of such accidents. The model applied machine learning to predict the risk of such accidents in the hope of providing risk visualization results for local governments. The expected impact of this research will benefit residents and public welfare organizations. In this study, Random Forest (RF), the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), the Back Propagation (BP) neural network, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), and the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was applied to predict the risk value. At the same time, this study applied ArcGIS to spatially interpolate the risk prediction values to generate the risk map. The results demonstrated that the RF algorithm achieved the highest classification performance among the five algorithms tested. Specifically, the RF algorithm attained an accuracy of 0.874, an F1-Score of 0.887, and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.984. The three townships with the highest risk were Xueyan, Daibu, and Shanghuang, with the proportion of risk area accounting for 48.39%, 44.34% and 79.64% respectively. This study provides a reference for the local government, which can take targeted measures to prevent and control. For disaster managers, the risks for those high-risk areas should receive sufficient attention. The government should establish a real-time updated disaster database to monitor the development of the situation. Moreover, the development and acquisition of historical disaster data is worthy of encouragement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The effects of natural hazards triggering technological disaster (NaTech) on a society, economy and the environment is a multi-disciplinary research topic. The novelty of the issue and the lack of a standard procedure for risk assessment of this category of incidents show the need for more research in this area. This article introduces OpenSRANE as an open-source, extensible, flexible and object-oriented software for calculating the quantitative risk of NaTech events in process plants. Implementing the software in the Python programming environment provides high flexibility for the modeling and evaluations desired by users. The possibility of implementing the modifications and developments to the existing software as needed by users allows them to add their desired algorithms, elements and models to it, if needed. The software is based on the Monte Carlo method, but it is possible to implement other algorithms and approaches to it. Object-oriented programming and separation of the different parts of the software can increase the readability of the program, allowing researchers in different disciplines to focus easily on studying or developing the desired part with minimal interference from other parts. The applicability of the software has been demonstrated in a case study as well as the ability of the software to calculate results such as the individual risk, scenarios that consider domino effects and physical effects.

This study delves into the impactful realm of lightning strikes, a meteorological phenomenon that poses substantial risks to the process industry by potentially triggering technological disruptions. This paper focuses on the territorial aspects linked to the lightning-triggered NaTech events, using the Italian geographical context as a case study. The novel insights gained from a historical analysis of NaTech events caused by lightning in the process industry allowed for quantifying frequencies and conditional probabilities governing final scenarios. These insights also shed light on associated infrastructural details, including industrial equipment and the macro-sectors involved. These data were linked with the territorial distribution of the major hazard establishments in Italy and further associated with the ground lightning density in specific territories. Focusing on different locations of hypothetical plants, the differences in their susceptibility to suffering lightning-triggered Natech disasters were compared. The findings and some conceptual ideas of this research have implications for stakeholders and technicians engaged in risk assessment. This research specifically contributes to increasing vulnerability awareness against lightning strikes, not only from a functional deterministic point of view but also from a territorial comprehensive perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial accidents can be triggered by natural hazards (as earthquakes, floods, lightning, and extreme temperatures) which can result in fires, explosions, or release of hazardous substances. These high impact accidents are called NaTech (Natural Hazards Triggered Technological Accident). NaTech can determine huge damages and their rapid growth in the latter years is also associated with climate change evolution. In this context, refineries are among the facilities majorly affected by NaTech and the presence of large amounts of hazardous materials makes easier to envisage potentially catastrophic scenarios. Risk assessments should include NaTech scenarios, and this should come with the availability of robust and efficient screening tools for safety engineering applications. Due to the complexity of extreme natural events, no general or reference models are officially available, leaving to the analyst the duty to estimate aspects such as probability of occurrence of an extreme natural event. Extreme events weather databases are also often incomplete, reporting data on past natural events with insufficient information for risk assessment purposes. This is particularly true for extreme winds. This paper applies a modified version of a literature reference model, based on the analysis of the occurrence of extreme winds on a Lat-Long quadrant classification. A grid choice dependence is shown, highlighting the variation of extreme winds likelihood of extreme winds on 3 Italian refineries located close to the sea. By changing the reference area for extreme winds analysis, the screening analysis leads to different results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to result in intensifying extreme weather that would increase the risks of climate hazards; leading to natural hazards triggering technological disasters (Natech) events. This paper highlights a simple method using easily available information to identify potential sites for Natech associated with climate change based on a case study of the Selangor River Basin in Malaysia. The approach draws heavily on susceptibility modelling, in combination with screening processes to delineate exposed potential point sources, followed by field inspection to validate the information. Findings reveal that with the onset of climate change, over 55% of the manufacturing industries in the Selangor River Basin are exposed to the risk of Natech due to floods and coastal inundation. The approach can be applied to river basins where industrial activities are prevalent and local information on future climate conditions is limited. It is useful for raising awareness, providing early warning of emerging hazards in worst-case scenarios, and prioritizing climate actions on Natech risk due to climate change.

Seismic events can trigger a NaTech disaster, leading to the release of hazardous materials, fires, and explosions. These can occur within industrial complexes and along distribution networks as a result of natural disasters. Industrial plants, composed of structural and non-structural components, may be damaged when subjected to earthquakes of a given magnitude. Some examples of these disasters occurred in Kobe (1995), Kocaeli (1999), and Tohoku (2011). This study aims to assess the local seismic hazard by the implementation of different analytical approaches in a Major-Hazard Industrial Plant (MHIP) triggering a NaTech event. For the Bussi MHIP area, a geodatabase has been designed where geometric and geotechnical parameters have been associated with each geotechnical unit. The local seismic hazard has been simulated using 1D and 2D codes, considering two seismic hazard scenarios limit state SLV - SLC according to the National Building Code (NTC2018). In this study, the amplification factor AF has been calculated within the natural vibration range of an H2O2 storage tank located in the Bussi MHIP facility. This type of structure was chosen as it represents an element able to generate a relevant accident and consequently, a potential NaTech event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural hazard events that trigger technical emergencies (Natech events), as a typical type of multi-hazard, have become a matter of growing concern. In particular, the occurrence of Natech events in industrial areas triggered a number of severe accidents. The present research aims at introducing a sound but simplified methodology to quickly and flexibly assess the Natech risk in a flood-wind-hail multi-hazard scenario. Taking the analysis of atmospheric vertical storage tank as an example, the methodology is shown. This methodology consists of eight steps, relying on the simplified physical models of tank damage caused by multiple natural disasters. In addition, LOC probability and risk are calculated to provide reference for decision makers. The uncertain parameter set (UPS) proposed in the method and the Monte Carlo simulation method can help to purposefully analyze the impact of various parameters in multi-hazard scenarios. New risk assessment of wind-overturning and hail-yielding is implemented. And this method is also applicable to Natech events involving other multi-hazard scenarios and other types of industrial facilities, which helps to quickly evaluate the risk to provide possible reference, and saving time cost and improving the efficiency of decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural events are a widely recognized hazard for industrial sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are handled, due to the possible generation of cascading events resulting in severe technological accidents (Natech scenarios). To date, research efforts were mainly dedicated to the study of Natech scenarios triggered by earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. However, a number of recent events evidenced the potential hazard of Natech scenarios triggered by cold waves and winter storms. The present study aims at providing a comprehensive analysis of past accidents involving hazardous substances triggered by cold waves affecting the industrial infrastructure. A dataset of over 740 Natech events was collected from specialized sources. A detailed analysis of the primary events and damage modes of the equipment items involved was carried out, highlighting that most of the accidents were linked to the phase transition from the liquid to the solid state of the process fluid or of atmospheric water. The analysis of the events allowed the identification of several aspects of the cause-consequence chains, such as the technological scenarios and the equipment items more frequently involved. A specific focus was also on the vulnerability and failure modes of safety barriers. The lessons learned derived from the analysis of the accidents provide key elements to prevent similar accidents from happening in the future. These were used to suggest specific safety barriers integrating winterization and freeze protection programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hazardous Natural events can cascade into Technological accidental scenarios (so called NaTech accidents). The occurrence of these accidents can degrade the performance of the preventive and mitigative safety barriers installed in the technological plants. Such performance degradation is typically assessed by expert judgement, without considering the effect of the magnitude of the natural hazard, nor its increasing frequency of occurrence in view of climate change. In this work, a novel sensitivity analysis framework is developed to identify the safety barriers whose performance degradation is most critical and thus needs careful modeling for realistic risk assessment. The framework is based on the calculation of a set of sensitivity measures, namely the Beta, the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) and the Value of Information (VoI), ● and their use to prioritize the safety barriers with respect to the need of: ● accounting for performance degradation during an accidental scenario; ● planning investments for further characterization of the safety barrier performance. An application is shown with respect to a case study of literature that consists of a chemical facility equipped with five safety barriers (of three different types, active, passive and procedural). NaTech scenarios can occur, triggered by floods and earthquakes. The results obtained with the Beta measure indicate that two-out-of-five barriers (one active and one passive) deserve accurate modelling of the performance degradation due to natural events. An additional outcome is that in the case study considered, both CVaR and VoI rank the passive barrier as the most effective in mitigating the scenarios escalation: therefore, this barrier is the one for which the decision maker could decide to invest resources for improving the characterization of its performance to obtain a more realistic assessment of the risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural hazards are the underlying cause of between 1 and 7 percent of federally reported hazmat releases in the US every year. During the period from 1990 through 2019 the fraction of releases caused by natural hazards has increased, in large part due to increased releases from hurricanes as well as floods, storms and wind. Many of these events are minor, but some have resulted in large and expensive releases as well as deaths, injuries, and evacuations. Inter annual variability of these releases is correlated with occurrence of extreme weather and associated climate indices. Given observed and future predicted increases in extreme weather events, it is likely many of these types of releases will continue to increase. Greater attention to management of natural hazard risk to industry, and in particularly to bulk storage facilities, is required to prevent further increase in the frequency and severity of these events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Literature on resilience to Natech of the chemical and process industry is reviewed. • Contributions are classified in three areas: Frameworks, quantitative methods, reviews. • Key aspects of the Resilience Engineering for the assessment of Natech scenarios are discussed. • A critical analysis of the existing literature is performed, highlighting gaps and limitations. • Research needs are identified to bridge Resilience Engineering to Natech risk management. The threat of natural hazards and their devastating consequences is challenging the resilience of society. Especially in industrial areas, where relevant quantities of hazardous materials are handled, natural hazards may trigger severe technological accidents (Natech). Resilience Engineering (RE) principles have been recently introduced in the context of process safety and Natech accidents, aiming at the development of systems able to withstand and rapidly recover from unexpected events. A systematic review of the literature addressing the application of resilience drivers to the framework of Natech assessment and management was carried out, providing a critical evaluation of strategies, methods, and tools proposed for resilience to Natech events. The study focused on chemical and process industries and related sectors, as the petrochemical and energy industry, analysing both quantitative and qualitative approaches. The fundamental aspects necessary to develop methods and tools for the quantitative resilience assessment of industrial facilities facing natural hazards have been identified. These mainly address the phases of the resilience evolution process (REP), the features of Natech scenarios, and the resilience metrics. Gaps and limitations in the state of the art, deserving attention in future research, were identified and discussed. These include the development of a detailed framework for the REP, a comprehensive assessment of the post-accident phases, and the integration of specific features of Natech scenarios. Other important aspects identified are the need to bridge the gap between qualitative and quantitative methods and the importance of developing a multidimensional approach to achieve a comprehensive understanding and assessment of the resilience of facilities exposed to natural hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Japan, landslides have tended to increase along with an increase of precipitation; therefore, the damage to industrial and economic activities due to landslides should be concerned. However, previous research on Natural-hazard triggered technological accidents (Natech) has not been focused on landslides. Considering such backgrounds, we established a landslide risk assessment method for industrial facilities and conducted the cost-benefit analysis for the countermeasure option. Specifically, we picked up an industrial facility handling chemical substances located in the landslide hazard-prone area and also evaluated the health risk caused by the chemical release accident triggered by the landslide. Here, we selected n-hexane as a target chemical substance and calculated the atmospheric concentration after the accident. We calculated construction costs for countermeasure and accident costs such as compensations under the assumed scenario based on the Acute Exposure Guideline Level. The results showed that compensation for victims accounted for about 97% of the accident costs and efficiency of proactive countermeasures considering the cost-benefit ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (Natech) has been reported by several researchers, and this trend is expected to continue due to climate change. As a result, some governments have initiated direct efforts to manage Natech risks, particularly in the United States and Europe. However, two surveys conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in 2009 and 2017 found that there was a lack of proper risk management and risk governance for Natech among OECD member states, including Japan and South Korea. This study aimed to identify relevant regulations and practical considerations for chemical and Natech risk management from government perspectives in Japan and South Korea. The article provides a review of the current state of risk management, emergency response, and risk communication on chemical and Natech risk management in the two countries, and concludes with a discussion of some of the issues that require improvement of the current chemical risk management. Current practices for chemical risk management in Japan and South Korea point to the possibility of improvements in dealing with the Natech risks. These practical lessons will be valuable for improving the capacity for dealing with challenges in chemical and Natech risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural hazard triggering technological disasters (Natech) pose a major risk to chemical industries. Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis, may cause massive fires, explosions, and toxic chemical release into the environment. Thus, Natech risks have recently attracted considerable research attention. Although Natech‐related case studies are seldom reported in the literature, the results obtained thereof facilitate concrete risk assessments and countermeasure implementation against natural hazards. This article presents a case study on tsunami risk assessment performed by Asahi Kasei Corporation, Japan, based on four steps: (1) review of Natech events caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, (2) hazard identification at the plant, (3) risk assessment considering human casualties, equipment loss, environment, and business continuity, and (4) evaluation and implementation of appropriate countermeasures. The risks posed by tsunamis were identified and analyzed. The inundation heights of Level‐1 and Level‐2 tsunamis were estimated to be 1 and 10 m, respectively. A tsunami evacuation tower and tidal wall were built as appropriate countermeasures to prevent or mitigate fatalities, loss of containment, and business interruption. The results obtained in this study facilitate adequate preparedness of chemical plants against future tsunami occurrences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial facilities can be severely affected by natural hazards (NHs) often resulting in significant social, environmental, and economic consequences. One of the most serious consequences of Natech's events is the accidental release of hazardous chemicals. While special attention has been paid to leakage prevention of toxic, flammable, or pollutant components to date, the possible effects in terms of green house gas (GHG) emissions have not been thoroughly investigated. NH can trigger, indeed, the release of high global warming potential (GWP) compounds such as fluorinated gases, nitrous oxides and others chemicals from collapsed components and/or structures. Nonetheless, conventional approaches to integrate NHs with LCA of buildings focus mostly on the embodied carbon metric, evaluated as in the Bill of Material procedure. As demonstrated by empirical evidence, these methods do not take into account the possible high-GWP compounds release in the case of extensive damage or collapse, which may lead to a general under-estimation of the related carbon footprint. It is worth noticing that current international standards do not explicitly recommend the inclusion of these aspects in LCA procedures for structures. To cope with these issues, we introduce in this paper both the new concept of content release GHG emission potential (CGEP) and, a procedure, capable of integrating these effects with LCA. Finally, we provide some examples of industrial components characterized by a significant CGER. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In recent decades, earthquakes, as natural hazards that caused direct effects both on communities and the chemical industry, produced many Natech events. Natech term is utilizing to describe the technological disasters caused by natural hazards. This study was conducted on the emergency evacuation challenges of residential areas adjacent to a refinery near Tehran based on H2S toxic gas release following a possible earthquake scenario. Method: This Research was an applied study at two phases in 2020. In the first phase, a review study was conducted to identify the community's previous experiences on emergency evacuation following Natech events. In the second phase, the challenges of emergency evacuation were analyzed based on the scenario of a possible earthquake and gas release from the refinery. Results: Due to the high seismic vulnerability of structures in the area affected Natech risk, the total Resident population in this area would be affected simultaneously by an earthquake and H2S gas release in concentration 30 ppm as the result of the earthquake impact on chemical facilities. Emergency evacuation would be inevitable. The existing evacuation places are very unsafe and dangerous due to having open spaces. The nearest suitable evacuation places were found in the north direction for more than 38 % of the exposed population and in the east, west, and south direction for more than 61% of them. Conclusions: The emergency evacuation challenges were discussed in 4 viewpoints, disrupted or interrupted rescue and firefighting operation, unnecessary evacuation, frequent evacuation, and evacuation behavior. The measures such as revising and updating emergency evacuation maps; public informing, training, preparedness; providing protocols and training for operational and therapeutic response teams; and coordination improvement can help resilience increasing to such disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complex cascading events might arise from the interaction between natural hazards and technological installations handling hazardous substances, leading to the so called Natech scenarios. Recent severe Natech events evidenced that the accident progression was initiated by the lack of operability of auxiliary systems and utilities available in the plant, and that the unavailability of safety systems in place was a key factor in accident development. These features of Natech scenarios are not captured by the current risk assessment procedures, which mainly focus on the release of hazardous substances caused by the structural damage of equipment. Starting from the lessons learnt from two complex Natech events, the Arkema accident and the Fukushima nuclear disaster, a paradigm shift towards a comprehensive assessment of Natech risk is proposed with the support of an innovative holistic framework addressing the identification and characterization of both "direct" Natech scenarios due to equipment damage, and of "indirect" Natech scenarios generated by the failure of auxiliary systems and utilities. The specific role of the modification of safety system performance during Natech events in the escalation of accident consequences is also addressed. Categories of hazardous substances having critical properties which may lead to major accidents in case of utility system failure were identified, in order to support the identification of "indirect" Natech scenarios. The specific methods and tools available to accomplish each step of the proposed framework are discussed, along with the main open issues and future research needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2018 Camp Fire in Butte County, California, was the state's most destructive wildfire in history, destroying more than 14,600 homes. The wildfire caused widespread drinking water system chemical contamination resulting in acute and chronic health risks, requiring water use restrictions. Six months after the fire, the research team conducted a rapid community survey of attitudes and experiences that were specific to building water safety. The validated surveys represented 233 households. Amid the disaster response, 54% of the respondents self-reported that at least one member in their household had anxiety, stress, or depression directly related to the water contamination issues. Uncertainty about water and plumbing safety prompted respondents to alter water use in the home (83%), install in-home water treatment technologies (47%), and/or seek alternate water sources (85%). To provide affected households with answers to plumbing testing and safety questions, the research team designed and conducted a community education event. Many community members had technical questions about how to conduct water testing to determine whether their plumbing was safe. The research team identified several significant public health information gaps and a need for clear recommendations. This work illustrates the advantages of community involvement for resolving ambiguities in how households can respond to water safety issues following a natural disaster. Further, the authors posit that strong community engagement in this context can reduce both psychological distress and exposure risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity of disasters is on an upward trend and inhabited areas are expanding into various risk areas, threatened by natural, technological or complex multi-hazards. The present study focuses on the analysis of Seveso-type economic operators whose activity is regulated by Law 59/2016 on the control of major-accident hazards involving dangerous substances. In Romania, the natural hazards that can trigger technological accidents in these sites are largely represented by earthquakes and floods. The analysis presented in this study was performed for a recurrence period of 475 years for earthquakes and 500 years for floods. The results of the analysis highlighted the sites in Romania that present specific Natech risks. Also, the possible technological accidents that may occur as a result of the manifestation of natural hazards have been identified for each site while a more detailed analysis was performed for the selected processes based on qualitative criteria. Finally, a ranking of these sites for Natech risks is presented considering the two natural hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfire occurrence frequency is increasing worldwide, generating more and more concern, especially in Wildland-Urban interfaces (WUI) and Wildland-Industrial Interfaces (WII) areas. Wildfires approaching WII can cause severe damage to people and industrial assets. In these scenarios, storage tanks present in industrial installations are among the most vulnerable pieces of equipment, since they are usually located in the proximity of the plant boundary. If hazardous substances are stored, tank damage caused by the fire can lead to loss of containment and trigger technological accident scenarios, escalating the consequences. Preserving the integrity of this type of equipment in case of wildfires is of paramount importance. The present study proposes a stepwise methodology for the evaluation of safety distances between storage tanks and vegetation that may be affected by a wildfire. According to the available data on the wildfire, on the lay-out and on the tanks that are likely to be affected, the methodology provides safety distances that may be applied to design fuel-reduced fringes around the industrial facility. The methodology proposed represents a quantitative tool for the calculation of safety distances that can guide industrial managers and assist regulators in the definition of more reliable standards. The comparison of the safety distances resulting from the present study with regulations and guidelines currently in use in different countries rises concern about the possible underestimation of required safety distances in the case of severe wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A total of 9100 Natech events were collected and analysed. • Meteorological events were found to be the main trigger of Natech scenarios. • Past accident analysis allowed the quantification of event trees for Natech scenarios. • Ignition probabilities specific for Natech were estimated. • Societal risk curve highlights the relevance of severe accidents. Natural events triggering technological scenarios (Natech events) are an increasing concern for regulatory authorities and industry, in particular in areas prone to natural disasters. A comprehensive analysis of the occurrence of Natech scenarios affecting the process industry is presented. A dataset of 9100 past accidents that took place in the last 70 years was compiled and analysed, with the aim of understanding the trend of Natech events, their geographical distribution, the final technological scenarios, and the associated consequences in terms of human losses and asset damages. Meteorological events, such as storms, extreme temperatures and lightning were found to be the main trigger of Natech scenarios (86 %). Despite the difficulty in collecting homogeneous data worldwide, an increasing number of Natech events over the time is observed. Moreover, specific increases in the occurrence of Natech events correspond to the occurrence of severe natural disasters as the devastating hurricanes that affected the Gulf of Mexico in recent years. The societal risk curve associated to Natechs was calculated, evidencing the relevance of extremely severe accidents (> 100 deaths). The analysis of the dataset also allowed building quantified event trees for the evolution of Natech scenarios. Specific ignition probability values for Natech events were estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Pipelines carrying hazardous materials may undergo major accident scenarios due to earthquakes. • Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of Natech scenarios affecting pipelines was addressed. • A methodology for the QRA of earthquake-induced Natech accidents in pipelines was developed. • Two different case studies are implemented and discussed. • Risk due to Natech accidents may be a relevant contributor to the overall risk. Earthquakes may cause severe damage to the technological infrastructure and to transport systems handling hazardous substances as oil, natural gas and flammable/toxic chemicals. Earthquake damage may trigger Natech scenarios involving the release of hazardous substances, resulting in major accidents including fires, explosions, and toxic releases. Most of the methodologies developed for the quantitative assessment of risk related to Natech scenarios only focus on stationary installations handling hazardous substances, as chemical and process plants. However, pipelines are widely used for the long-range bulk transport of hazardous materials. In the present study an innovative methodology was developed to address the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of Natech scenarios triggered by earthquakes involving pipelines handling hazardous substances. Specific vulnerability models are used to assess pipeline failure probability. A new specific procedure was developed to carry out the calculation of consequences and risk along the main dimension of the pipeline. The innovative methodology developed allows for the first time the calculation of local specific individual risk and societal risk due to Natech events along the route of the pipeline. Two different case studies are discussed to provide a notional application of the proposed methodology and to demonstrate the applicability of the approach to a real-scale pipeline risk assessment problem. The results obtained from the case studies show the relevance of risk due to Natech scenarios involving pipelines with respect to that deriving from possible conventional failures, as well as the potentialities of the proposed approach in considering different intensities of seismic hazard along the route of the pipeline. Thus, the methodology developed provides an important support to risk-informed decision making in the management and mitigation of major accidents involving pipelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Development of a dynamic approach for the assessment of Natech scenarios caused by wildfires. • Vulnerability assessment of industrial sites to thermal radiation from wildfire. • The methodology includes cascading fires following primary Natech scenarios. • The synergistic effect of multiple fires is accounted. • The possible delay of emergency teams on domino effect probability is accounted. In the framework of climate change, the hazard caused by wildfires approaching the anthropic settlements is raising an increasing concern. Fatalities and relevant damage to properties were recently caused by wildfires affecting the Wildland-Urban and Wildland-Industrial Interfaces. Industrial sites storing large quantities of hazardous materials are vulnerable to interface fires, which have the potential to trigger specific cascading events such as Natech scenarios followed by domino effects. The present study aims at providing a methodology for the quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of industrial sites exposed to wildfires. The approach provides a novel framework for the identification and quantification of all the chains of failures that may occur due to wildfires or interface fires approaching industrial sites. The methodology accounts for the thermal radiation from fires in both primary Natech scenarios and cascading scenarios triggered by domino effects. The dynamic features of interface fires and the synergistic effects of multiple fires are also taken into account. The results of a case study demonstrated the importance of considering the dynamic behavior of wildfire, which strongly affects the vulnerability of industrial structures. The results also evidence the importance of emergency management and first response on the overall vulnerability figures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Modeling storage tanks and facilities response to natural hazards is a complex task. • Operation and design variables have an important effect on storage tank fragility. • Proposed parametric fragility curves incorporate operation and design variables. • Spatial distribution of storage tanks can be incorporated in fragility assessment. Natural hazards impose great distresses on many type of structures, which leads to large economic, environmental, and human losses. Large storage areas, in which large cylindrical storage tanks are used, are particularly vulnerable to certain natural events such as earthquakes, tsunami, and storms. This vulnerability can result in technological accidents (also known as Natech) such as the release of hazardous materials or the loss of valuable resources. The objective of this paper is to present a Natech-based approach for the development of fragility curves that can be used in the performance analysis and the design of storage tanks, for a large variety of tank configurations, and for various types of storage park/area setups. This is achieved through a parametric methodology that allows for specific tank modelling, instead of more traditional approaches (i.e., historical records). Furthermore, a formulation for the analysis of tank groups subjected to extreme events is presented. The model for isolated and grouped tanks, and its applications, are illustrated through several examples. This analysis is restricted to the case of ground supported, liquid-atmospheric storage tanks. Specifications for other tank geometries and operation conditions (e.g., elevated, rectangular or pressurized tanks) can be found elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Framework to evaluate the accessibility of NaTech accidents during storm surge events. • Storage tank fragility models to identify locations and likelihood of NaTech events. • Bridge fragility models and GIS analysis to determine road network disruptions. • Probabilistic network analysis to quantify time-evolving accessibility metrics. • Benefits of framework are demonstrated for a case study region in Texas. Recent hurricane events have exposed the susceptibility of petrochemical facilities to severe transportation network disruptions due to flooding or storm surge. Network disruptions can result in cascading impacts or amplify the consequences of damage to petrochemical infrastructure due to delayed emergency response and limited access to the site. This study presents a scenario-based framework to assess the accessibility of petrochemical facilities by emergency responders and workers during storm surge events. First, the framework couples storm surge modeling with aboveground storage tank fragility models to determine the locations where natural hazard-triggered technological (NaTech) events could occur. Then, storm surge modeling is coupled with bridge fragility models and geographic system analysis to evaluate the potential for network disruptions such as bridge failures and road inundations. Finally, probabilistic network analyses are performed to evaluate the time-evolving accessibility of NaTech sites to emergency responders and facility workers. As a proof of concept, the framework is applied to a case study area. Results for the case study area demonstrate that the proposed framework is a powerful tool to quantify the accessibility of potential NaTech events, facilitate mitigation and emergency activities, and improve the management of critical resources and personnel during and after a storm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Systematic review and meta-analysis of over 160 papers on Natech research. • Papers classified by natural hazard, methodological approach and type of analysis. • Natech research shifts from earthquakes to hydrometeorological to multihazards. • Large research gaps remain concerning tsunami, wind and landslide related Natechs. • More research needed concerning hard countermeasures for Natech risk reduction. • Emerging fields include long-term health effects and risk communication of Natechs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A comprehensive method for assessing tsunami-related Natech hazards is proposed. • The method is based on models for tsunami, triggered oil spill and subsequent fire. • The method quantifies fire hazards probabilistically via Monte Carlo simulations. • Uncertainty in tsunami source, tank oil filling and fire ignition is incorporated. • The application is illustrated focusing on possible offshore Mw 9.1 earthquakes. A novel modeling methodology is presented for cascading disasters triggered by tsunami hazards considering uncertainties. The proposed methodology focuses on tsunami-triggered oil spills and subsequent fires, a type of natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) event. The methodology numerically simulates the time-varying behavior of tsunami-triggered oil spill fires for numerous stochastically generated scenarios and performs a probabilistic mapping of the maximum radiative heat flux as a quantitative measure of the fire hazard. To enable these assessments, probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments are extended to include the tsunami-induced movement of oil storage tanks, resulting oil spills, tsunami-driven oil fire spread, and thermal radiation from fires. The uncertainty of the earthquake fault slip distribution, oil filling level of storage tanks, and fire starting time and position is incorporated into the new assessments. To demonstrate the methodology, a realistic case study is conducted for a coastal petrochemical industrial park in Japan conditioned on possible offshore moment magnitude 9.1 earthquakes. Contrary to typical tsunami direct impact assessments, the results highlight the cascading effects of tsunamis and large variability in key output variables concerning oil spills and fires. This indicates that the methodology is useful for deepening stakeholders' understanding of tsunami-triggered cascading disasters and improving risk reduction plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technological accidents triggered by natural disasters (Natech) have become a significant threat to the safety of coastal energy infrastructure. The domino accidents involved could propagate rapidly in a short duration and amplify an accident exponentially. In previous studies of Natech-related domino accidents, the scope of natural disasters was mainly focused on the phase of primary events, and the subsequent accident cascades were entirely driven by the domino effect. This simplification essentially weakens the real-time intervention of ongoing disasters in the evolution of accidents, making it difficult to accurately model the evolutionary patterns of domino accidents. Accordingly, a Natech-related domino evolution graph (NT-DEG) is proposed in this paper for dynamic modeling of accident evolution under the real-time disturbance of natural disasters. In addition, a stochastic process and a deterministic process are innovatively used to control the generation of primary events and the update of the evolution network at each timestamp. Moreover, using a dynamic community detection algorithm and graph metrics, an identification method for critical units in dynamic domino accidents is proposed. The application of NT-DEG to typhoon-related Natech indicates that continuous-onset natural disasters may cause new failure units that could participate in the original domino accident at any moment. This real-time intervention noticeably changes the propagation path and scale of the original accident and accelerates accident evolution. In addition, the validation based on the integrated simulation reveals that the proposed identification method can accurately identify the critical units, and the safety measures against them can noticeably reduce the scale of accident cascades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change, global warming, and unplanned urbanization have resulted in industrial facilities and livelihoods encroaching on wildlands. Wildfire risks concerns about natural hazards triggering technological accidents (Natech) caused by wildfires in wildland-industrial and -urban interface areas are globally increasing. As wildfires that could trigger Natech accidents occur infrequently but often with unpredicted and uncontrollable consequences, critical infrastructure and industrial facilities should prepare for the potential catastrophic impact of wildfires beforehand. This paper describes a case study of wildfire-threatened critical energy infrastructure located in wildland-industrial interface (WII) and wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas in South Korea. The energy infrastructure avoided a serious Natech accident through intensive risk and emergency management. Although there was no Natech disaster or dreadful damage to the energy facility, this threat to the energy infrastructure is a reminder to prepare for future Natech disasters in WII and WUI areas that could result in unmanageable consequences. This study highlights the need for intensive and integrated wildfire-specific Natech risk management, considering critical infrastructure and industrial facilities in WII and WUI areas, that should include all stakeholders with local residents and enhance Natech resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Maramureş County is well-known as a strongly influenced area by mining exploitation of non-ferrous ores. To assess the Natech risk associated to tailing ponds in relation to climatic conditions and in particular to the rainfall in the area, four ponds with transboundary pollution potential were considered, namely: Aurul tailing pond, Novăţ tailing pond, Colbu 1 tailing pond and Colbu 2 tailing pond. In the methodology for the preliminary hazards analysis both historical accidents during 2000-2010 period and the conditions related to the construction and location of the tailing ponds were taken into account. Since the Novăţ taling pond, Colbu 1 tailing pond and Colbu 2 tailing pond are now preserved and permanently post-closure monitored, the transboundary risk has been estimated as being low. In these circumstances the Natech risk has been assessed only for the Aurul tailing pond which, at the present, is the only one active tailing pond in Maramureş County. The assessment results revealed a medium-high risk associated to the extreme meteo-climatic phenomena influenced by the regional climate changes.

Wastewater disposal systems are complex systems composed by several interconnected elements. In the aftermath of dramatic natural events, such as the earthquake, the failure of any of these elements can result in the deterioration of the environment as well as in the risk for the exposed population, due to leakage of untreated or un-properly treated wastewater on soil and/or its discharge into superficial waters. This paper presents a multi-disciplinary methodology for the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of municipal or industrial wastewater treatment plants, based on damage observation of available earthquake reports. Specific fragility curves and threshold values expressed in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) are presented and compared with existing functions. The methodology fully comply requirements of most relevant and effective risk analysis tools or for land-use planning and can be adopted for the definition of structural priorities of plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Barrier performance affects the severity of primary technological scenarios in Natech. • Characterization of primary technological scenarios with depleted safety barriers. • QRA of Natech scenarios considering depleted performance of safety systems. • Benchmark of results against worst-case (barrier absence) and best-case (baseline performance). • High impact of barriers performance depletion on severity and risk of Natech. The impact of natural events on technological infrastructures may lead to severe accident scenarios involving hazardous materials, generating the so-called Natech events. This typology of accidents is particularly critical since, besides damaging process or storage equipment items, natural hazards might concurrently impair safety barriers implemented to prevent and mitigate technological scenarios, reducing the overall safety of the system and increasing the likelihood of unmitigated outcomes and domino effects. In this study, a novel methodology to perform the quantitative risk assessment of the primary Natech scenarios directly caused by the impact of natural hazards considering the presence of safety barriers with depleted performance is proposed. A multi-level approach is tailored to assess the performance modification of safety systems designed to mitigate the primary technological scenarios. An innovative procedure for the quantitative assessment of these scenarios is proposed to enable the characterization of the final outcomes considered in the quantitative risk assessment accounting for depleted barrier performance. A case study is developed to demonstrate the application of the methodology, evidencing a relevant increase in risk compared to that assessed considering the baseline performance of safety systems. The proposed methodology thus enables a more comprehensive assessment of the final outcomes of primary Natech events, fostering the development of a holistic framework for Natech quantitative risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Earth Observation (EO) techniques are becoming increasingly important in risk management activities not only for natural hazards and natural disaster monitoring but also to ride out industrial and Natech accidents. The latest development in the aerospace industry such as sensors miniaturization and high spatial and temporal resolution missions devoted to monitoring areas of specific interest, have made the use of EO techniques more efficient and ready to use in near real time conditions. This paper summarize the current state of knowledge on how EO data can be useful in manage all the phases of the Natech disaster, from the environmental conditions before the accident strikes to the post accident relief, from the scenario setting and planning stage to damage assessment. Moreover some terminological tools are proposed NHWikisaurus and EOSterm thesaurus, that could be useful for semantic knowledge spreading in EO and risk managment.

Lightning is one of the most frequent accident causes in storage tank parks, and accidents triggered by lightning are the most frequent Natech event reported in past-accident analysis. In the present study, a methodology for the inclusion of accidents triggered by lightning in Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) was developed. A model for the assessment of lightning impact probability on process equipment and specific equipment vulnerability models were coupled to dedicated event trees, allowing the quantification of risk indexes. The methodology developed also allows the assessment of risk reduction by the implementation of different lightning protection strategies. The results obtained represent a step forward towards the introduction of risk-based design of lightning protection systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural disasters may be powerful and prominent mechanisms of direct or indirect release of hazardous material. The main aim of this work was to develop a short-cut methodology for assessing the vulnerability of a territory around an industrial plant in order to evaluate the Natural–Technological (NaTech) risk. In particular the combined use of a global key hazard indicator with the key vulnerability indicator proposed in this work allows the measurement of the NaTech risk arising from the presence of a plant in a territory with given characteristics. The proposed methodology was validated by comparing its results with quantitative risk analysis (QRA) results, involving earthquake-related NaTech events. The agreement of the results obtained with the proposed methodology with those arising from a much more detailed QRA carried out with the ARIPAR-GIS software in several case study supports the reliability of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helbing (2013:51) poignantly argues that ‘Globalization and technological revolutions are changing our planet’. Along with the benefits and opportunities associated with worldwide collaboration networks comes ‘pathways along which dangerous and damaging events can spread rapidly and globally’. With our hyper-connected world underpinned by hyper or hybrid-risks, the impact of unexpected events such as floods, earthquakes, financial crisis, and cyber-attacks has revealed the fragility and vulnerabilities that lie within the social/technological/economic/political/ecological interdependent systems. In particular, events that affect critical infrastructure such as damage to electric power, telecommunications, transportation, health care systems, financial markets and water-supply systems can have local, regional and global impact. Taleb (2007) calls these extreme events ‘Black swans’ to describe their inherent quality of surprise. Many of the systemic risks that characterize Natural Hazard triggered Technological disasters (NATECH) often arise from unanticipated consequences of interactions within and between different types of systems. Johnson and Tivnan (2012:65) argue that, ‘…understanding, controlling and predicting extreme behavior [of NATECH] is an important strategic goal to support resilience planning’. In this light, a new paradigm is required to support disaster risk reduction (DRR) embedded in hyper-risks; one that will develop not only anticipatory measures for risk management but also prepare for the unpredictable and the ‘unknown’ by building organisational resilience for hyper-risks in general and NATECH disasters in particular. In this paper we explore the emergency management domain associated with the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident to show the hyper-connectivity and hyper-risks that permeated the problem space and thereby show how ‘reflective responses’ underpinned by ‘critical reflective practices’ can be used to support resilience in such a complex disaster. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Severe accidents may be triggered by the impact of floods on process and storage equipment containing hazardous substances. The present study analyses the possible damage of horizontal cylindrical equipment, either operating at atmospheric or at higher pressures. A mechanical damage model was developed and validated by available literature data on past accidents. Simplified correlations were then obtained to calculate the critical flooding conditions leading to vessel failure. A fragility model was proposed for the straightforward assessment of equipment damage probability in the framework of the quantitative risk assessment of NaTech scenarios triggered by floods. A case-study was discussed to test the potentialities of the method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fires and explosions triggered by lightning strikes are among the most frequent Natech scenarios affecting the chemical and process industry. Although lightning hazard is well known, well accepted quantitative procedures to assess the contribution of accidents caused by lightning to industrial risk are still lacking. In the present study, a quantitative methodology for the assessment of the expected frequency of lightning capture by process equipment is presented. A specific model, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was developed to assess the capture frequency of lightning for equipment with a given geometry. The model allows the assessment of lay-out effects and the reduction of the capture probability due to the presence of other structures or equipment items. The results of the Monte Carlo simulations were also used to develop a simplified cell method allowing a straightforward assessment of the lightning impact probability in a quantitative risk assessment framework. The developed approach allows an in-depth analysis of the hazard due to lightning impact by identifying equipment items with the highest expected frequency of lightning impacts in a given lay-out. The model thus supplies useful data to approach the assessment of the quantitative contribution of lightning-triggered accidents to industrial risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]