1. Travel distance, frequency of return, and the spread of disease
- Author
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Cate Heine, Kevin P. O’Keeffe, Paolo Santi, Li Yan, and Carlo Ratti
- Subjects
Medicine ,Science - Abstract
Abstract Human mobility is a key driver of infectious disease spread. Recent literature has uncovered a clear pattern underlying the complexity of human mobility in cities: $$r \cdot f$$ r · f , the product of distance traveled r and frequency of return f per user to a given location, is invariant across space. This paper asks whether the invariant $$r\cdot f$$ r · f also serves as a driver for epidemic spread, so that the risk associated with human movement can be modeled by a unifying variable $$r\cdot f$$ r · f . We use two large-scale datasets of individual human mobility to show that there is in fact a simple relation between r and f and both speed and spatial dispersion of disease spread. This discovery could assist in modeling spread of disease and inform travel policies in future epidemics—based not only on travel distance r but also on frequency of return f.
- Published
- 2023
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