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Travel distance, frequency of return, and the spread of disease

Authors :
Cate Heine
Kevin P. O’Keeffe
Paolo Santi
Li Yan
Carlo Ratti
Source :
Scientific Reports, Vol 13, Iss 1, Pp 1-10 (2023)
Publication Year :
2023
Publisher :
Nature Portfolio, 2023.

Abstract

Abstract Human mobility is a key driver of infectious disease spread. Recent literature has uncovered a clear pattern underlying the complexity of human mobility in cities: $$r \cdot f$$ r · f , the product of distance traveled r and frequency of return f per user to a given location, is invariant across space. This paper asks whether the invariant $$r\cdot f$$ r · f also serves as a driver for epidemic spread, so that the risk associated with human movement can be modeled by a unifying variable $$r\cdot f$$ r · f . We use two large-scale datasets of individual human mobility to show that there is in fact a simple relation between r and f and both speed and spatial dispersion of disease spread. This discovery could assist in modeling spread of disease and inform travel policies in future epidemics—based not only on travel distance r but also on frequency of return f.

Subjects

Subjects :
Medicine
Science

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20452322
Volume :
13
Issue :
1
Database :
Directory of Open Access Journals
Journal :
Scientific Reports
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
edsdoj.5d70f02975b24c4db318a6a809097acd
Document Type :
article
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38840-0