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Abstract Anthropogenic emissions alter atmospheric composition and therefore the climate, with implications for air pollution- and climate-related human health. Mortality attributable to air pollution and non-optimal temperature is a major concern, expected to shift under future climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. In this work, results from numerical simulations are used to assess future changes in mortality attributable to long-term exposure to both non-optimal temperature and air pollution simultaneously. Here we show that under a realistic scenario, end-of-century mortality could quadruple from present-day values to around 30 (95% confidence level:12-53) million people/year. While pollution-related mortality is projected to increase five-fold, temperature-related mortality will experience a seven-fold rise, making it a more important health risk factor than air pollution for at least 20% of the world’s population. These findings highlight the urgent need to implement stronger climate policies to prevent future loss of life, outweighing the benefits of air quality improvements alone.

Cultural heritage (CH) sites are frequently exposed to natural elements, and their exposure becomes particularly precarious with the onset of climate change. This increased vulnerability places these sites at risk of deterioration or complete destruction. Risks such as land deformation, floods, acid rain, and erosion significantly threaten historic monuments, while water-related hazards, significantly influenced by both climate change and human activities, present a particularly grave risk to these invaluable sites. Considerable research efforts have focused on safeguarding CH sites. However, there remains a deficiency in systemic approaches towards identifying and mitigating risks for CH sites. The TRIQUETRA project proposes a technological toolbox and a methodological framework for tackling climate change risks and natural hazards threatening CH in the most efficient way possible. It aims at creating an evidence-based assessment platform allowing precise risk stratification as well as a database of available mitigation measures and strategies, acting as a Decision Support System (DSS) towards efficient risk mitigation and site remediation. TRIQUETRA is a European project that brings together a diverse group of researchers with varied expertise, encompassing university research groups, research institutes, public entities, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises. In this article, TRIQUETRAs overall methodology is presented, and preliminary results concerning risk identification, TRIQUETRAs knowledge base, as well as novel sensors and coatings, are discussed.

An assessment of the projected changes in precipitation extremes for the 21st century is presented here for Greece and its individual administrative regions. The analysis relies on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations following various Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The simulated changes in future annual total precipitation (PRTOT) under the examined scenarios are generally negative but statistically non-robust, except towards the end of the century (2071–2100) over high-altitude mountainous regions in Western Greece, Peloponnese, and Crete under RCP8.5. The pattern of change in the number of very heavy precipitation days (R20) is linked to the respective pattern of the PRTOT change with a statistically robust decrease of up to −5 days per year only over parts of the high-altitude mountainous regions in Western Greece, Peloponnese, and Crete for 2071–2100 under RCP8.5. Contrasting the future tendency for decrease in total precipitation and R20, the changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes show a tendency for intensification. However, these change patterns are non-robust for all periods and scenarios. Statistical significance is indicated for the highest 1-day precipitation amount in a year (Rx1day) for the administrative regions of Thessaly, Central Greece, Ionian Islands, and North Aegean under RCP8.5 in 2071–2100. The changes in the contribution of the wettest day per year to the annual total precipitation (RxTratio) are mainly positive but non-robust for most of Greece and all scenarios in the period 2021–2050, becoming more positive and robust in 2071–2100 for RCP8.5. This work highlights the necessity of taking into consideration high-resolution multi-model RCM estimates in future precipitation extremes with various scenarios, for assessing their potential impact on flood episodes and the strategic planning of structure resilience at national and regional level under the anticipated human-induced future climate change.

Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O _3 ) is associated with excess respiratory mortality. Pollution emissions, demographic, and climate changes are expected to drive future ozone-related mortality. Here, we assess global mortality attributable to ozone according to an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario applied in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, projecting a temperature increase of about 3.6 °C by the end of the century. We estimated ozone-related mortality on a global scale up to 2090 following the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, using bias-corrected simulations from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) under the SSP3-7.0 emissions scenario. Based on the three ESMs simulations, global ozone-related mortality by 2090 will amount to 2.79 M [95% CI 0.97 M–5.23 M] to 3.12 M [95% CI 1.11 M–5.75 M] per year, approximately ninefold that of the 327 K [95% CI 103 K–652 K] deaths per year in 2000. Climate change alone may lead to an increase of ozone-related mortality in 2090 between 42 K [95% CI −37 K–122 K] and 217 K [95% CI 68 K–367 K] per year. Population growth and ageing are associated with an increase in global ozone-related mortality by a factor of 5.34, while the increase by ozone trends alone ranges between factors of 1.48 and 1.7. Ambient ozone pollution under the high-emissions SSP3-7.0 scenario is projected to become a significant human health risk factor. Yet, optimizing living conditions and healthcare standards worldwide to the optimal ones today (application of minimum baseline mortality rates) will help mitigate the adverse consequences associated with population growth and ageing, and ozone increases caused by pollution emissions and climate change.

Mosquito-borne diseases have been spreading across Europe over the past two decades, with climate change contributing to this spread. Temperature and precipitation are key factors in a mosquito’s life cycle, and are greatly affected by climate change. Using a machine learning framework, Earth Observation data, and future climate projections of temperature and precipitation, this work studies three different cases (Veneto region in Italy, Upper Rhine Valley in Germany and Pancevo, Serbia) and focuses on (i) evaluating the impact of climate factors on mosquito abundance and (ii) long-term forecasting of mosquito abundance based on EURO-CORDEX future climate projections under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. The study shows that increases in precipitation and temperature are directly linked to increased mosquito abundance, with temperature being the main driving factor. Additionally, as the climatic conditions become more extreme, meaning higher variance, the mosquito abundance increases. Moreover, we show that in the upcoming decades mosquito abundance is expected to increase. In the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5) Serbia will face a 10% increase, Italy around a 40% increase, and Germany will reach almost a 200% increase by 2100, relative to the decade 2010–2020. However, in terms of absolute numbers both in Italy and Germany, the expected increase is similar. An interesting finding is that either strong (RCP2.6) or moderate mitigation actions (RCP4.5) against greenhouse gas concentration lead to similar levels of future mosquito abundance, as opposed to no mitigation action at all (RCP8.5), which is projected to lead to high mosquito abundance for all cases studied.

We investigate future changes of agro-climatic zones over Europe under two different IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) based on an ensemble of 11 bias-corrected regional climate model simulations covering the period 1981–2100. Eight distinct agro-climatic zones were identified by applying the k-means clustering method for the reference period 1981–2010 on two temperature-related parameters: the growing season length and the active temperature sum. Our results point towards a strong northward shift of the agro-climatic zones, especially under RCP8.5, towards the end of the century. A significant shift of the agro-climatic zones is also projected for RCP4.5 in the near-future and the end-of-the-century periods for large areas in Europe.

We investigate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosols using simulations from seven Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The ERF of individual aerosol species (black carbon, organic carbon, sulphates) is quantified along with the all-aerosol ERF and decomposed into its aerosol–radiation interactions (ARI), aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) and surface albedo (ALB) components, using the method proposed by Ghan in 2013. We find that the total anthropogenic aerosol ERF at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is negative, mainly due to aerosol–cloud interactions. Sulphates exhibit a strongly negative ERF especially over industrialized regions of the Northern Hemisphere, such as Europe, North America, East and South Asia, while black carbon exerts a positive ERF predominantly over East and South Asia.

The main objective of the present study is the development of an “on-line” heating emissions modeling system based on simulated meteorological data and its integration with air quality modeling systems in order to improve their accuracy. The WRF-CAMx air quality modeling system is applied over Greece for the cold period of 2015 (January–April, October–December) for two emissions scenarios: using the (a) “on-line” heating emissions based on WRF meteorology and (b) “static” heating emissions based on static temporal profiles. The monthly variation in total “on-line” heating emissions followed the temporal pattern of the air temperature over Greece, leading to the highest heating emissions in January and February, while higher differences in emissions between winter and spring/autumn months were identified in comparison with the static ones. The overall evaluation of the WRF-CAMx modeling system using the “on-line” heating emissions revealed satisfactory model performance for the mean daily air quality levels. The comparison between the simulated and observed mean monthly concentrations revealed an improvement in the pattern of mean monthly concentrations for the “on-line” scenario. Higher values of the index of agreement and correlation for the mean daily values were also identified for the “on-line” scenario in most monitoring sites.

This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C ^−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C ^−1 , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C ^−1 , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

Following the rapid spread of COVID-19, a lockdown was imposed in Thessaloniki, Greece, resulting in an abrupt reduction of human activities. To unravel the impact of restrictions on the urban air quality of Thessaloniki, NO2 and O3 observations are compared against the business-as-usual (BAU) concentrations for the lockdown period. BAU conditions are modeled, applying the XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) machine learning algorithm on air quality and meteorological surface measurements, and reanalysis data. A reduction in NO2 concentrations is found during the lockdown period due to the restriction policies at both AGSOFIA and EGNATIA stations of −24.9 [−26.6, −23.2]% and −18.4 [−19.6, −17.1]%, respectively. A reverse effect is revealed for O3 concentrations at AGSOFIA with an increase of 12.7 [10.8, 14.8]%, reflecting the reduced O3 titration by NOx. The implications of COVID-19 lockdowns in the urban air quality of Thessaloniki are in line with the results of several recent studies for other urban areas around the world, highlighting the necessity of more sophisticated emission control strategies for urban air quality management.

Climate change projections predict the increase of no-rain periods and storm intensity resulting in high hydrologic alteration of the Mediterranean rivers. Intermittent flow Rivers and Ephemeral Streams (IRES) are particularly vulnerable to spatiotemporal variation of climate variables, land use changes and other anthropogenic factors. In this work, the impact of climate change on the aquatic state of IRES is assessed by the combination of the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Temporary Rivers Ecological and Hydrological Status (TREHS) tool under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using CORDEX model simulations. A significant decrease of 20–40% of the annual flow of the examined river (Tsiknias River, Greece) is predicted during the next 100 years with an increase in the frequency of extreme flood events as captured with almost all Regional Climate Models (RCMs) simulations. The occurrence patterns of hyporheic and edaphic aquatic states show a temporal extension of these states through the whole year due to the elongation of the dry period. A shift to the Intermittent-Pools regime type shows dominance according to numerous climate change scenarios, harming, as a consequence, both the ecological system and the social-economic one.

Between 30 May and 6 June 2019 a series of new flanks eruptions interested the south-east flanks of Mt. Etna, Italy, forming lava flows and explosive activity that was most intense during the first day of the eruption; as a result, volcanic particles were dispersed towards Greece. Lidar measurements performed at the PANhellenic GEophysical observatory of Antikythera (PANGEA) of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA), in Greece, reveal the presence of particles of volcanic origin above the area the days following the eruption. FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) simulations and satellite-based SO2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument onboard the Sentinel-5 Precursor (TROPOMI/S5P), confirm the volcanic plume transport from Etna towards PANGEA and possible mixing with co-existing desert dust particles. Lidar and modeled values are in agreement and the derived sulfate mass concentration is approximately 15 μg/m3. This is the first time that Etna volcanic products are monitored at Antikythera station, in Greece with implications for the investigation of their role in the Mediterranean weather and climate.

We present here the first cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration profiles derived from measurements with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), for different aerosol types at a supersaturation of 0.15%. CCN concentrations, along with the corresponding uncertainties, were inferred for a nighttime CALIPSO overpass on 9 September 2011, with coincident observations with the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe-146 research aircraft, within the framework of the Evaluation of CALIPSO’s Aerosol Classification scheme over Eastern Mediterranean (ACEMED) research campaign over Thessaloniki, Greece. The CALIPSO aerosol typing is evaluated, based on data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis. Backward trajectories and satellite-based fire counts are used to examine the origin of air masses on that day. Our CCN retrievals are evaluated against particle number concentration retrievals at different height levels, based on the ACEMED airborne measurements and compared against CCN-related retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors aboard Terra and Aqua product over Thessaloniki showing that it is feasible to obtain CCN concentrations from CALIPSO, with an uncertainty of a factor of two to three.