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Spatiotemporal Evolution of Seasonal Crop-Specific Climatic Indices under Climate Change in Greece Based on EURO-CORDEX RCM Simulations

Authors :
Theodoros Mavromatis
Aristeidis K. Georgoulias
Dimitris Akritidis
Dimitris Melas
Prodromos Zanis
Source :
Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 24; Pages: 17048
Publication Year :
2022
Publisher :
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2022.

Abstract

This study presents an updated assessment of the projected climate change over Greece in the near future (2021–2050) and at the end of the 21st century (2071–2100) (EOC), relative to the reference period 1971–2000, and focusing on seasonal crop-specific climatic indices. The indices include days (d) with: a maximum daily near-surface temperature (TASMAX) > 30 °C in Spring, a TASMAX > 35 °C in Summer (hot days), a minimum daily near-surface temperature (TASMIN) < 0 °C (frost days) in Spring, a TASMIN > 20 °C (tropical nights) in Spring–Summer and the daily precipitation (PR) > 1 mm (wet days) in Spring and Summer covering the critical periods in which wheat, tomatoes, cotton, potato, grapes, rice and olive are more sensitive to water and/or temperature stress. The analysis is based on an ensemble of 11 EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations under the influence of a strong, a moderate, and a no mitigation Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). The indices related to TASMAX are expected to increase by up to 11 days in Spring and 40 days in Summer, tropical nights to rise by up to 50 days, frost days to decrease by up to 20 days, and wet days to decline by up to 9 days in Spring and Summer, at the EOC with an RCP8.5. The increased heat stress and water deficit are expected to have negative crop impacts, in contrast to the positive effects anticipated by the decrease in frost days. This study constitutes a further step towards identifying the commodities and/or regions in Greece which, under climate change, are or will be significantly impacted.

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
20711050
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Sustainability; Volume 14; Issue 24; Pages: 17048
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....846ec8680713289e4b31cd85e56241b6
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.3390/su142417048