Search

In this study, the thermal treatment of two types of waste from the paper industry was investigated, paper mill sludge and sewage sludge from biological wastewater treatment plants. Hydrothermal carbonisation (HTC) and torrefaction were investigated as sustainable alternatives for solid biofuel production. Untreated samples and samples chemically pre-treated with alcoholic vinegar were subjected to torrefaction at 350 °C in N2 atmosphere, and the exhaust gases were analysed. HTC was performed at 250 °C with a residence time of 4 h. The feedstocks and the biochars produced were characterised by different analytical methods, and the effects of pre-treatment on fuel properties were studied. Both processes, HTC and torrefaction, showed inspiring results in the production of biofuels from paper industry wastes under the tested experimental conditions. A positive influence of pre-treatment on fuel properties (higher heating value, carbon content) of the obtained char was observed, and changes in the gas phase during torrefaction were observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Rosa consists of more than 200 species. Among these Rosa damascena Mill belongs to the Damask group of roses which are known for their strong fragrance. R. damascena has been cultivated as garden rose in some west European collections but it is mainly grown for production of rose oil and rose water obtained after steam distillation of the rose flowers. It is considered that the oil rose originates from ancient Persia (today Iran) and has been later spread to Europe and Northern Africa. By the 14th century the Damask roses were already grown in West European rose collections as garden roses. Rose oil is mainly used in the perfumery and cosmetics industry as a base component of many of the modern perfumes but it also finds application in the food industry as a flavor additive. The main producers of rose oil are Bulgaria, Turkey, Iran and India. Smaller amounts of rose oil and mainly rose water are produced in the countries of Northern Africa. The price of the rose oil has been growing during the last years. The rose oil and rose flower extracts have been studied for a number of health-beneficial effects including antibacterial activity, antioxidant activity, anti-infective and anti-inflammatory properties, relaxant effects on tracheal chains and anti-HIV activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work would like to bring into the attention of readers various aspects associated with the process of doctoral research. For many of the students this can represent quite a challenging experience with an increased level of complexity. The author will show his experience while enrolled in this form of education. Main ideas are based on the factors identified while planning and writing the papers associated with the research journey. Most of the works belong to the themes of the doctoral school, like economics, financial system or international affairs. The sample of analysed papers contains several works covering the field of interdisciplinary research. This concept will be approached inside the literature review to familiarise the readers with its meaning. Content of this area includes elements from economics, financial system, international affairs and environment. Novelty of the paper is represented by the personal experience of the writer. He will show the challenges encountered while performing regular and interdisciplinary research, connecting particular notions from business process management and business process improvement. Lean Six Sigma methodology will be used to sustain specific elements of the analytical representation. Moreover, the author will provide an overview on the lessons learnt, hoping this will contribute to the decrease of the research process complexity level and support publication status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global rise of data volume from Zettabyte to Yottabyte raises concerns about effectively managing its use and storage. One concern is dark data, which needs to be tapped and used for critical decision-making and insights generation. This phenomenon is a reality in the data economy that requires a solution through productization. The term data economy refers to the expanding economic activity centered around data collection, analysis, and sale. With the digitization of society and the exponential growth of the internet and social media, individuals, organizations, and society are continuously generating and collecting massive amounts of data. This data can be invaluable for companies and institutions to gain insights into customer behavior, market trends, and the performance of their businesses. Despite the scholarly literature that provides some insights, there remains a need for further exploration and clarification of the intersection between the data economy and productization. This study addresses these unresolved issues by thoroughly analyzing academic and industrial literature. The study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by extending the TTF (Task-Technology Fit) theory to conceptualize the relationship between data economy and productization. The study also proposes a comprehensive framework for countries, organizations, and institutions and offers theoretical and managerial implications. It is important to note that this study has its limitations, and future research should address these limitations and further advance the understanding in this research domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectors and scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the view that the societal transitions research field would benefit from the further maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understanding of and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discusses the benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systems and elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detail to illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that we think are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this review paper efforts are made to present the Impact of COVID-19 on various economic activities like production, consumption and distribution. This is known to everyone that COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease) spreadout in December 2019 from Wuhan in China and effected a lot of countries resulting in death of many. Therefore, to minimise the risk, many countries opted lockdown as a precaution to control its spread which effected the lives of ordinary people as well as the economy as a whole, GDP, Functions of Economy and a lot of activities were effected very badly. It had a huge impact on the consumption pattern of population as well as supply chains and production of various goods and services were also impacted as transportation was at halt and movement of people, products, services etc. was not possible from one place to another. There was a heavy down in employment, production, distribution and other activities as well. Hence, this paper will help the readers know the collective impact along with the sector wise effect of COVID-19 on various economic activities. For better understanding we have taken three major economic activities that is Production, Consumption and distribution. Along with these the basic introduction of COVID-19, lockdown and its impact on economy is stated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Informal waste reclaimers are a key part of South Africa's recycling economy, being responsible for around 51% of all paper and packaging waste collected in South Africa in 2017. Active in the waste and recycling landscape for more than three decades, their activity predates the earliest voluntary paper and packaging Extended Producer Responsibility schemes. However, these voluntary schemes have been instrumental in scaling South Africa's recycling economy. Investment by brand owners, retailers, converters and recyclers has helped develop local end-use markets, creating a demand for paper and packaging recyclables and a resultant increase in their collection. An analysis of tonnage and price data shows that the mean estimate of money paid by the private sector to the informal waste sector through the purchase of recyclables at intermediaries such as buy-back centres, was ZAR625 million in 2012, increasing to ZAR872 million in 2017. This private sector 'investment' in the local recycling economy has led to direct and indirect job creation and improved livelihoods, particularly for a large, well-established and effective informal waste sector, and has indirectly funded municipal waste diversion strategies, saving municipalities in both the collection and disposal of waste. Significance: * Informal waste reclaimers make a significant contribution to the diversion of paper and packaging recyclables from landfill to recycling in South Africa. * Limited information exists on the earnings of informal reclaimers. * This paper provides new insights on the annual financial payments made by the private sector to informal reclaimers tor the collection of recyclables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the tensions between political sovereignty and global capitalist accumulation that arise from neoliberal globalization: in the context of neoliberal globalization, the role of the state was substantially altered, and competitiveness became important to sustain economic growth, employment and wealth. However, for this purpose, the internal stabilization of the economy also has to be ensured. Competition state-ness aims to reconcile domestic and global market dynamics. This paper addresses this challenge from a Cultural Political Economy perspective, arguing that the specific way this is done results from ideas, institutional selectivities and materiality. As the supranational level gained importance during globalization, this paper uses the European competition state project as an empirical example. It uses a Critical Discourse Analysis to analyze the economic imaginaries on competition of the European socio-economic strategy, Europe 2020. The central findings are two imaginaries on competition that address different market dynamics in the neoliberal political economy: the 'sovereign entity' that promotes a well-functioning domestic market, and the 'competitive entity' that aims to increase European competitiveness to thrive on the world market. Although tensions arise between the imaginaries, it is argued in the end that three strategies based on them constitute the European competition state project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use conflicts are intensifying in Northern Sweden due to the increasing global demand for resources coupled with the green transition. In line with this, a thorough understanding of land use conflicts in the area is becoming necessary as economic activities expand and newer ones are developed. Hence, this paper aims to provide a systematic literature review of research on land use conflicts specific to Northern Sweden, focusing on various economic activities such as forestry, mining, tourism, energy sector and reindeer husbandry. Additionally, we aim to determine lessons learned and suggested ways forward based on a systematic review. We used Scopus and Web of Science on June 2023 and through descriptive statistical analysis of 33 articles, we summarized research trends and gaps. We found three main typologies of conflicts and five main themes of suggested ways forward. Recommendations agree that there should be a broader understanding of the underlying interests of the stakeholders; and there should be an inclusive, more participatory approach to discussing potential solutions, not to create an agreement but to come to an understanding. Beyond academic insights, the findings hold practical relevance for shaping effective land use policies. This paper offers valuable lessons that extend beyond the local context, informing broader discussions and policy considerations for sustainable land management in the larger Arctic setting, where similar challenges and resource demands are unfolding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, policymakers and academics have shown interest in understanding how universities could drive regional innovation. Universities are not solely focusing on research and education as their primary missions but are also asked to participate in the development of their regions. This has compelled universities to forge what is called a third mission, encompassing all social and economic activities of universities. Several attempts have been made to evaluate this concept, aiming to highlight the evolving role of universities and their relevance to policy and society. In this vein, this paper showcases existing attempts that aim to measure the impact of the third mission in European universities. This study consists of a systematic literature review studying journal articles published between 2001 and 2021. The purpose of this paper is to enumerate the existing measurements of the third mission and identify the different tensions related to it. This study shows that the literature encompasses three approaches for assessing the third mission. First, some studies incorporated the third mission into the overall evaluation of university performance. Second, other investigations aimed to capture this concept as a whole. Finally, several studies evaluated individual dimensions of the third mission independently. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Management & Organization Review is the property of Cambridge University Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Published during the economic crisis of 1836-37, The French Revolution exploits nineteenth-century anxieties about paper money and the erosion of the gold standard to investigate a historical crisis in political, moral, and economic value. This essay investigates how Carlyle draws on the substitution of paper money and the speculation and inflation it engendered in revolutionary France as part of a larger meditation on the role and efficacy of symbols in a democratic culture. As the essay demonstrates, for Carlyle the inconvertibility of banknote into gold during the Paper Age parallels the inconvertibility of signs into time-honored systems of reference and signals the loss of privileged representations of value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the value of traditional leaders in the advancement and execution of Municipal Integrated Plan (IDP) in South Africa. According to literature search institution of traditional leadership have been in place for a very a long time. To examines the value of traditional leaders in the advancement and execution of Municipal Integrated Plan (IDP) in South Africa, the paper employed the Behavioural theory of leadership. This paper used secondary data (through a literature review) to collect relevant information. It was revealed that differences between the local governance, and traditional leaders are depriving community members of the services that they should be getting from their respective municipalities. Despite the enactment of numerous constitutional laws to strengthen ties between traditional leaders and the local government, it is evident in existing literature that the lack in understanding of roles between traditional leaders and municipal councils remains a challenge. Traditional leaders are not able to participate fully in the IDP policy execution. The paper concluded by arguing that overcoming the undermining and including traditional leaders in all stages of development programs by municipalities is desirable to win the fight against poverty, unemployment, and income inequality through quality service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a 2019 article published in this journal, Kyer and Maggs examined the frequency and characteristics of double-dip recessions and multi-dip recessions for 21 countries during the 1960:1 to 2014:4 period. A review of Kyer and Maggs generated a number of questions about a particular feature of their business cycle dating methodology. Specifically, they determined that a recession ends once real gross domestic product returns to or exceeds the previous peak level of real gross domestic product. To demonstrate the impact this nontraditional feature of their methodology has on their results and conclusions, this paper repeats their analysis where, in contrast to Kyer and Maggs, it is assumed that a recession ends once the economy reaches the trough quarter in a business cycle. The application of this more traditional feature of business cycle dating methodology to the same countries and sample period yields results that do not support their conclusions about either the frequency of double-dip recessions or the number of countries in their sample that experienced multi-dip recessions. This paper first shows that double-dip recessions represent just 7.2% of all recessions and, therefore, are not as common as Kyer and Maggs reported. Second, only five of the 21 countries experienced recessions with two or more additional dips in economic activity over the entire sample period. Finally, only six countries experienced a multi-dip recession during the Great Recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the matched data of China's tax survey and customs from 2007 to 2011, this paper studies the differential impact of exchange rate changes on the performance of companies by region from the perspective of factor market distortion. The results show that for import companies, the RMB appreciation significantly contributes to improving their performance and this phenomenon is more pronounced in areas with high factor market distortions. Channel tests show that the proportion of intermediate goods imported by final producers increases with regional factor market distortions. Therefore, the appreciation of the national currency is more favorable for areas with high factor market distortions (companies with high proportion of imported intermediate goods). In addition, the appreciation of the national currency will promote the production of China's upstream intermediate goods producers by expanding the output of downstream enterprises. This paper complements previous studies on the differential impact of RMB exchange rate changes on regional economic growth from a micro perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A landslide, to the west of Montemurro (a small village in Southern Italy), has recently caused damage to buildings and other infrastructures in an urbanized area, as a result the development of new economic activities has been prohibited. The landslide was discovered in the last century and has been studied since the 1990's using classical geotechnical methods, but the sliding body continues to move. In this paper, we will present the results of a study carried out using field surveys, geognostic investigations and TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) measurements in order to reconstruct the stratigraphy of the sediments involved and to further understand the geological and geomorphological context of the slope. This study is part of a larger multidisciplinary project of which the results will also be presented in this paper. The landslide (rotational slide in the upper sector, developing into a translational slide in the lower part) affects Quaternary continental clastic deposits resting on a bedrock formed by Tertiary siliciclastic sediments of the Gorgoglione Flysch. TDR measurements did not show any significant movement during the period monitored (January 2013-January 2014). Slip zone geometries were hypothesized using inclinometric measurements taken from previous studies, stratigraphic data and geomorphological interpretations of topographic scarps. Feedback from monitoring will confirm this hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper redefines hydrogen colour codes based on carbon dioxide emissions. It highlights that there are several colour codes, which disregard the carbon dioxide emitted in the hydrogen production process (e.g., electrolysis with renewable energy, steam reforming of natural gas, coal gasification, etc.). Some colours are used interchangeably for different technologies, while many colour codes do not assign a colour for all possible production pathways. Therefore, the existent framework is misleading and lacks scientific underpinning of colour labelling (e.g., green, blue, grey, black, yellow, purple, turquoise, etc.). This paper builds upon the work of Nikolaidis and Poullikkas and provides a qualitative assessment of the colour codes used to label various technologies. Based on a comparative analysis of the latest research and analysing hydrogen colour codes, this paper inquires whether there is or not, a common understanding of the hydrogen production pathways that lie behind each hydrogen "colour". This paper finds that there are major inconsistencies regarding the colours used, especially for technologies using fossil fuels as an energy source, but nuclear energy has also been found to have discrepancies in labelling. At the same time, there is only one colour used to describe a wide range of technologies using renewable energy (i.e., green). However, if carbon dioxide emissions of the corresponding production technology were visually represented using a predefined colour-code, the hydrogen produced with fossil fuels would have a less diverse colour range, than current colour palettes would suggest. Rather than being "grey" and "blue", coal, oil and gasbased hydrogen appear to be different shades of "brown" and "black". This finding illustrates that these technologies emit more carbon dioxide emissions than an initial labelling would suggest, which raises the question whether any colours of hydrogen, other than its "green" versions, is compliant with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Económicas CUC is the property of Corporacion Universidad de la Costa, CUC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Most of the research in the macroeconomic theory points to the fact that the most important economic aggregates at the level of the economy are: the gross domestic product, the level (rate) of unemployment and the inflation rate. The gross domestic product represents the most synthetic indicator of the total economic activities of a country, i.e. of the reached level of its economic development. This paper presents the methods for calculating GDP: the production, income and expenditure method. Also, in the focus of analysis of this paper are the classical models of economic growth, Keynesian models of economic growth, neoclassical models of economic growth and new models of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the field of economics, work is typically considered a form of barter for wages. This perspective reduces work to a mere activity serving profit, productivity, and, ultimately, the economy. Such a reduction also diminishes the person performing the work, treating them merely as a "cog in a machine." To fully appreciate its true meaning, work must be seen as labor serving temporal goods and as a pathway to contemplation. This paper argues that personalist economics is necessary to achieve contemplative labor, affirming the totality of the person--as composed of both body and soul--involved in work and economic activity. Consequently, both the person and their work are irreducible to mere profit, productivity, and economic activity. In this light, the paper seeks to answer the question: Is it possible to retrieve the meaning of the person in today's economy through labor? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the impact of public debt on economic growth in eleven EU new member states (NMS) from Central and South-Eastern Europe for the period 2000--2019. More specifically, we investigate if there is evidence of a non-linear (quadratic) relationship in this group of countries. Having in mind different economic and financial development, historical connections, and geographical proximity, we split them into three more homogenous groups: Balkan countries (BAL-4), Baltic countries (B-3), and Visegrad countries (VIS-4). The results of our study in all models indicate a statistically significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. The results across all models show a significant non-linear impact of public debt ratios on annual GDP per capita growth rates. Further, the calculated debt-to-GDP turning point, where the positive effect of accumulated public debt inverts into a negative effect, is roughly between 42.7%--58% of GDP, dependent on which sub-group we have analyzed. In general, the research may contribute to a better understanding of the problem of high public debt and its effect on economic activity in the new EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an attempt to examine the place of ICT and Globalization in the world economic activities but did not fail to note, list, and draw attention to the doom being perpetrated by this modern change. Apart from the discussion of some relevant and touchy topics in ICT and Globalization, the paper contains an examination of the concept of ICT, the role of ICT in the economies of the world and ending up in globalization of the entire human race. ICT and Globalization will lead to the risks that many of our valuable information will be lost, stolen, corrupted, or misused. Through the interconnected systems it has become so easy for people to penetrate into others privacy and such unpermitted access could cause harm and loss of computers and files. The gains and losses of ICT and globalization which ought to cancel each other out are in some cases insurmountable, putting nations at advantage over others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The paper deals with issues related to the fiscal policy and the impact on the Kosovo economy. The main purpose of the paper is to analyze the impact of the fiscal policy on the economy and the financial effect on the budget in Kosovo. Design/methodology/approach: This article provides a theoretical overview of fiscal policy and its impact on the economy. To finalize the work, the material used includes scientific literature, as well as reports and publications from the Ministry of Finance, the Statistics Agency of Kosovo. To achieve the main objective of the article are different sources of data such as analysis method, comparative method, econometric analysis which has been analyzed and analyzed correlatively. Findings: In the framework of the work we have done regarding the analysis of fiscal policy and the impact on the economy in Kosovo, the results showed that: Fiscal policy affects economic processes and economic activities as well as effects on the budget in Kosovo. Practical implications: Through the study, we consider the results and recommendations to be taken into account by the interested parties and certain sectors in Kosovo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a pioneering approach for simulation of economic activity, policy implementation, and pricing of goods in token economies. The paper proposes a formal analysis framework for wealth distribution analysis and simulation of interactions between economic participants in an economy. Using this framework, we define a mechanism for identifying prices that achieve the desired wealth distribution according to some metric, and stability of economic dynamics. The motivation to study tokenomics theory is the increasing use of tokenization, specifically in financial infrastructures, where designing token economies is in the forefront. Tokenomics theory establishes a quantitative framework for wealth distribution amongst economic participants and implements the algorithmic regulatory controls mechanism that reacts to changes in economic conditions. In our framework, we introduce a concept of tokenomic taxonomy where agents in the economy are categorized into agent types and interactions between them. This novel approach is motivated by having a generalized model of the macroeconomy with controls being implemented through interactions and policies. The existence of such controls allows us to measure and readjust the wealth dynamics in the economy to suit the desired objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The survey of the structure of farms is carried out by all the member states of the European Union, with agricultural holding as the statistical unit of measure. Thus, all the member states of the European Union are based on the definition of agricultural exploitation where it is mentioned that "agricultural exploitation means a single unit, both from a technical and economic point of view, with a single management, which carries out its agricultural activities on the economic territory of the EU, either as a primary activity or as a secondary activity". The purpose of the paper is to highlight the evolution and importance of studying agriculture, more specifically agricultural holdings, by performing a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the specialized literature. Thus, to achieve the proposed goal, the web of science database was accessed in order to perform a bibliometric analysis. Thus, following the application of the bibliometric analysis, it can be argued that this sector has been given considerable interest, as evidenced by the high number of articles published recently, regarding the analysis of agricultural holdings. By querying the mentioned database, 26,804 scientific articles were found after the phrase "agricultural farms". Most such papers were published by authors from the US (28.4% of the total number of papers) and China (18.7% of the total number of papers) in the Journal of agricultural and food chemistry (1.52%) and Acta horticulture (1.39%). Because this topic of agricultural holdings is vast and many countries are involved in approaching it in different ways, further studies are recommended on analyzing the evolution and importance of agricultural holdings in different countries and identifying the discrepancies between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the Global Financial Crisis, interest in financial cycles has risen significantly. While much of modern macroeconomics conceives financial crises as the results of exogenous shocks, Minsky's financial instability hypothesis posits that financial cycles are endogenous to the economic system. The main contribution of this paper is to use historical macroeconomic data for the United States (1889–2014) to econometrically test for endogenous Minsky cycles: the interaction of procyclical private debt-to-income ratios and a dampening effect of private debt on economic activity. We analyze corporate debt-gross domestic product (GDP) growth cycles, which feature in Minsky's original writings, and mortgage debt-GDP growth cycles as in some recent Minsky-inspired models. We find robust evidence of endogenous corporate debt-GDP cycles over the last 125 years. These results are driven by the pre-World War II (WWII), and post-1973 periods, which had a more liberal economic policy orientation. We find no evidence of mortgage debt-GDP cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper draws its title from a paper written over 35 years ago by Geoffrey H. Moore (1967). Why the need for a reprise? First, there would appear currently to be somewhat diverging views as to what properly constitutes a recession. Second, largely as a result of this, in many countries other than the US, there does not exist a single, widely accepted business cycle chronology for the country in question. This paper will argue that, in addition to output, there are other important aspects to aggregate economic activity that need to be taken into account in determining the business cycle, viz., income, sales and employment. As such, our perspective would seem to be at odds with the apparent position taken by some other recent commentators on this issue who argue that GDP is all that is needed to represent a country's business cycle. We will also argue against using the currently popular 'two negative quarterly growth rate' rule in dating the onset of a recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To deleverage is one of the major tasks for the supply-side structural reform in China, and to steadily deleverage in order is the key to fending off and defusing financial risks. This paper uses the economic statistics of China around 2016 to depict the "expansion-contraction" fluctuations with Chinese macroeconomy during the deleveraging. In this realistic context, it constructs a financial business cycle model based on the financial accelerator theory and attempts to use default cost changes to introduce financial shocks and understand China's macroeconomic fluctuations in the deleveraging context in the perspective of unanticipated and anticipated shocks. Results of the numerical model simulation show that before and after the deleveraging, the fluctuations of credit, leverage ratio, credit spread and other major macroeconomic variables originate not only from the changes with unanticipated default cost. Anticipated changes with default cost can similarly explain the "expansion-contraction" macroeconomic fluctuations in recent years and offer a new perspective into the fluctuations during deleveraging. Accordingly, government, when practicing deleveraging policies, is advised to take into full consideration not only the actual changes with default cost, but also anticipated factors of financial institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]