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This paper provides theoretical and empirical insights on the extent to which the availability of carbon offsetting may substitute the individual use of other carbon-reducing measures. Theoretically, we demonstrate an ambiguous impact of offsetting on the use of other measures and derive conditions under which both are substitutes or complements. We then empirically test our predictions using data from representative surveys among more than 2000 citizens in Germany and the U.S. Considering seven measures that can be taken by individuals to directly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, our empirical evidence is consistent with the theoretical predictions that substitution occurs particularly if individuals lay a sufficiently large weight on environmental preference or if offsetting is perceived to be relatively effective in providing the public good climate protection. Complementary effects are shown to exist for a perceived intermediate effectiveness of offsetting activities.

In this paper, we critically review cost‐benefit analysis, cost‐effectiveness analysis and the guard‐rail approach as decision‐support tools for the choice of climate protection strategies. Our main focus is on the central role of value judgments, which arise from the need to value; first, uncertain environmental benefits from climate protection relative to other goods; second, the consumption of the present relative to future generations; and third the consumption of “poor” relative to “rich” people. Each of the three approaches analyzed has its shortcomings. Cost‐benefit analysis requires a complete and transitive preference ordering, which stands in sharp contrast to scientific uncertainties and valuation problems. Cost‐effectiveness analysis suffers from the difficulty of setting an appropriate climate protection target. Finally, the usefulness of the guard‐rail approach for decision‐makers depends on the extent to which it is possible to limit the choice set.

In the political discussion, the economy-wide effects of an energy tax have gained considerable attention. So far, macroeconomic analyses have focused on either (positive or negative) costs triggered by an energy tax, or on the efficiency gains resulting from new energy taxes combined with lower distortionary taxes. By contrast, the innovative effects of climate protection measures have not yet been thoroughly analysed. This paper explores the productivity effects of a 50 per cent energy tax in the German industry sector employing a technology-based, three-step bottom-up approach. In the first step, the extensive IKARUS database is used to identify the technological adjustments arising from an energy tax. In the second step, the technologies are classified into different clusters. In the third step, the productivity effects generated by the technological adjustments are examined. The results imply that an energy tax induces mainly sector-specific and process-integrated technologies rather than add-on and cross-cutting technologies. Further, it is shown that the energy-saving technologies tend to increase productivity. This is particularly the case for process-integrated, sector-specific technologies.

This paper reports on two efforts to develop methods for quantifying and analysing greenhouse gas emissions from local places. The International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives‐Cities for Climate Protection (ICLEI‐CCP) campaign and the Association of American Geographers‐Global Change in Local Places (AAG‐GCLP) project represent independent efforts with differing origins and objectives. There is a rich and dynamic fine structure to the causal patterns that determine the level of greenhouse gas emissions in the society. This fine structure is essentially opaque to national and state‐level inventories and analyses, and yet understanding it is necessary to understanding how human communities can be organised and human enterprise structured in environmentally sustainable ways. Simplified inventory methods that account for most but not all emissions, use readily available local data and, most important, inform efforts at emission reduction are currently available for cities and could be ma...

In many industrial countries voluntary commitments are emerging as a new instrument for energy policy to reduce greenhouse gases. This paper examines the latest version of the German Industry's Declaration on Climate Protection from 1996. The statistical analysis shows that the largest part of the German Industry's commitments for 2005 were already reached in 1994 and 1995, thus prior to signing the Declaration. This result corresponds to economic theory that in an open competition-based economy, companies cannot do more for the environment than the market allows.

In this paper, we analyze the rationale for an energy policy mix when the European Emissions Trading scheme (ETS) is considered from a public choice perspective. That is, we argue that the economic textbook model of the ETS implausibly assumes 1) efficient policy design and 2) climate protection as the single objective of policy intervention. Contrary to these assumptions, we propose that the ETS originates from a political bargaining game within a context of multiple policy objectives. In particular, the emissions cap is negotiated between regulators and emitters with the emitters’ abatement costs as crucial bargaining variable. This public choice view yields striking implications for an optimal policy mix comprising RES supporting policies. Whereas the textbook model implies that the ETS alone provides sufficient climate protection, our analysis suggests that support for renewable energies 1) contributes to a more effective ETS‐design and 2) may even increase the overall efficiency of climate and energy policy if other externalities and policy objectives besides climate protection are considered. Thus, our analysis also shows that a public choice view not necessarily entails negative evaluations concerning efficiency and effectiveness of a policy mix.

"Die Regionen stehen vor der Herausforderung, geeignete Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz zu ergreifen. Insbesondere die Produktion von erneuerbaren Energien führt zu vielfältigen Raumansprüchen und Nutzungskonkurrenzen, die es zu bündeln und abzustimmen gilt. Im Sinne einer Bündelung der Kräfte sollten formelle Steuerungsinstrumente durch informelle Handlungsansätze ergänzt werden. Durch die Einbindung eines breiten Akteursnetzwerkes, die Vermittlung von gesamtstrategischen Zusammenhängen und kooperativen, projektbezogenen Handlungsweisen können Bewusstsein und Akzeptanz geschaffen werden. Informelle Instrumente tragen so zur Umsetzungsunterstützung formeller Instrumente bei. Der Beitrag zeigt modellhaft am Beispiel der oberbayerischen Planungsregion Oberland auf, wie dazu die Integration der Instrumente - konkret von Regionalplanung und Regionalmanagement - im Rahmen eines regionalen Energiekonzepts funktionieren könnte. Dazu ist eine Neubewertung der bestehenden landesplanerischen Instrumente erforderlich: sie müssen konsequent und aufeinander abgestimmt umgesetzt werden." (Autorenreferat) "Each single region faces its own challenging task when taking suitable measures for climate protection. The production of renewable energy in particular leads to various spatial requirements and results in competitive forms of utilisation. While aiming towards an optimal bundling of resources, formal control instruments should be complemented with informal action measures. Establishing a broad network among the key players shall lead to a raised public awareness and acceptance while creating a general understanding of overall strategic context and of proposed project activities. Thus, informal instruments will contribute to the implementation of formal instruments. This paper shows by the example of the Bavarian Planning Region Oberland on how the integration of such instruments can effectively function within the framework of a regional energy concept. A new interpretation of the existing instruments is necessary: they must be implemented strictly and in a coordinated way." (author's abstract)

In the 20 years since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted, progress in global climate policy has been modest. Annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased by over one-third since 1992. Acute conflicts of interest remain a persistent obstacle. One of the few points of general consensus in the international community is on the overarching objective of limiting the temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. If one is to accept key recommendations from scientific policy advisors, emissions will have to be reduced significantly between 2010 and 2020 to stay below the 2°C limit. Yet given that global emissions trends are moving in the opposite direction and will be impossible to reverse in a matter of a few years, this goal is patently unrealistic. And since a target that is obviously unattainable cannot fulfill either a positive symbolic function or a productive governance function, the primary target of international climate policy will have to be modified. The express aim of this paper is to stand apart from the innumerable studies detailing theoretically possible measures to avoid crossing the 2°C threshold. Instead, it provides the first systematic analysis of possible options for modifying the 2°C target. A particular focus is placed here on the relationship between climate science and climate policy. Since the EU brought the objective into the climate policy arena, the modification of the 2°C target carries the risk of damaging the EU's public image. Furthermore, it would lead to a debate over the easing of the EU's internal emissions reduction objectives which are directly derived from the 2°C target. This could become a highly controversial issue in the coming years, when the EU has to decide on its legally binding emissions target for 2030. (author's abstract), Zwanzig Jahre nachdem die Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen verabschiedet wurde, fällt die Bilanz der internationalen Klimapolitik bescheiden aus. Die jährlichen Emissionen sind seit 1992 um gut ein Drittel gewachsen. Die Interessengegensätze zwischen Industrie-, Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern sind anhaltend groß. Einer der wenigen Aspekte, über die Konsens besteht, ist das übergeordnete Ziel, den Temperaturanstieg auf zwei Grad Celsius zu beschränken. Folgt man den Kernaussagen der Klimaforschung, müssten die Emissionen zwischen 2010 und 2020 bereits deutlich reduziert werden, um ein Scheitern des von der EU durchgesetzten 2-Grad-Ziels noch zu verhindern. Angesichts eines gegenläufigen globalen Emissionstrends ist dies völlig unrealistisch. Da ein als unerreichbar geltendes Ziel politisch aber weder eine positive Symbol- noch eine produktive Steuerungsfunktion erfüllen kann, wird das zentrale Ziel der internationalen Klimapolitik unweigerlich modifiziert werden müssen. Vor diesem Hintergrund reiht sich die vorliegende Studie nicht in die Vielzahl von Untersuchungen ein, in denen dargelegt wird, mit welchen Maßnahmen sich das Überschreiten der 2-Grad-Marke theoretisch noch vermeiden ließe. Vielmehr werden hier erstmals systematisch mögliche Varianten einer Veränderung des 2-Grad-Ziels analysiert. Eine politische Diskussion über die Zukunft des 2-Grad-Ziels ist bisher ausgeblieben. Da die Emissionen weltweit immer noch ansteigen, wird die EU dieser Frage aber nicht mehr lange ausweichen können. Die hierbei entscheidenden Staats- und Regierungschefs der EU-Mitgliedstaaten werden sich darüber klarwerden müssen, wie eine Veränderung der Zielformel mit ihren jeweiligen klima-, außen- und wirtschaftspolitischen Interessen in Einklang gebracht werden kann. (Autorenreferat)

"Klimawandel und Energiewende geht alle an. Die Raumordnung muss dabei im Sinne des Gemeinwohls eine rahmengebende und koordinierende Rolle spielen. Unter der Prämisse einer 'klimagerechten Verantwortung' müssen die raumrelevanten Aspekte in den Vordergrund gerückt und eine auf Akzeptanz und Partizipation ausgerichtete strategische Landes- und Regionalplanung gestärkt werden. Gesamträumliche Konzepte wie z.B. regionale Energiekonzepte stellen dabei wichtige Bausteine für eine erfolgreiche Umsetzung der Energiewende dar. Die zahlreichen Instrumente der Raumordnung sollten zwar einer Neubewertung bezüglich der neuen Herausforderungen (Klimawandel, Energiewende) unterzogen werden, können aber - allerdings nur bei konsequenter Anwendung - wichtige Weichen stellen (z.B. zu einer klimagerechten Siedlungsentwicklung). In diesem Sinne werden von den einzelnen Autoren in diesem Band umsetzungsorientierte Handlungsempfehlungen gegeben und konkrete Vorschläge zur Weiterentwicklung der Raumordnung und zu ihren Instrumenten aufgezeigt (z.B. Schaffung einer Koordinierungsstelle, Erweiterung von Instrumenten der Freiraumsicherung, 'Klima- Check' in Raumordnungsverfahren). Die Zielsetzung der Arbeitsgruppe war es, über die einzelnen in schriftlicher Form niedergelegten Beiträge hinaus, auf allen Planungs- und Entscheidungsebenen weitere Diskussionen und klimagerechtes Handeln anzuregen. Nur im Schulterschluss der Kommunen und Verbände, der Gesellschaft und des Staates sowie mit einer Verknüpfung formeller und informeller Instrumente wird es gelingen, dem Klimawandel zu begegnen und eine erfolgreiche Umsetzung der Energiewende zu bewirken." (Autorenreferat) "Climate change and energy turnaround is everyone’s business. Spatial planning therefore has to play a mayor role in providing a framework and coordination on behalf of the common good. Under the premise of climate-optimized responsibility space-relevant aspects has to be promoted und strategic regional planning based on acceptance and participation has to be enforced. Spatially holistic concepts, like regional energy concepts, are important components for a successful replacement of fossil fuels. Numerous instruments for spatial planning has to be re-evaluated facing new challenges, but providing consistent application they could set the right course (f.e. climate-conscious settlement development). In this sense, the authors in this book give implementation-orientated recommendations for action and present concrete proposals developing spatial planning as well as its instruments (f.e. creation of coordination office, expansion of instruments for securing open spaces, climate-check for regional planning procedures). Besides working out the papers, it was the objective of the working group to encourage discussion on all planning and decision-making levels and to inspire climate-optimized acting. Dealing with climate change and a successful substitution of fossil energy will only come about if there exists a united front between municipalities, associations, society and state as well as a combination of formal and informal instruments." (author's abstract)

More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime) or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly). To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1) incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2) incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3) incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

"Jeder Einzelne muss sich seiner klimagerechten Verantwortung stellen. In besonderem Maße sind hierbei die Akteure der räumlichen Planung auf allen Planungsebenen gefordert. Denn dem bereits stattfindenden Klimawandel kann nur mit vorsorgeorientierten Planungen und konkreten Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz und zur Anpassung an die Folgen des Klimawandels begegnet werden. Dazu können zahlreiche Handlungsfelder der Raumordnung nicht nur identifiziert, sondern sie müssen aktiv bespielt werden. Die Zielsetzung der Arbeitsgruppe 'Klimawandel und Nutzung von regenerativen Energien als Herausforderungen für die Raumordnung' der Landesarbeitsgemeinschaft Bayern ist es, Teilaspekte des Themenkomplexes 'Klimawandel und Nutzung von regenerativen Energien' in diversen Einzelbeiträgen möglichst praxisnah und umsetzungsorientiert zu beleuchten. Die von Mitgliedern und Gästen der Arbeitsgruppe aufgestellten 'Zugspitz- Thesen' fassen diesbezüglich die wichtigsten raumrelevanten 'Botschaften' zusammen. Damit soll die Rolle der Raumordnung betont und eine Debatte auf allen Planungs- und Entscheidungsebenen angestoßen werden." (Autorenreferat) "Every individual has to assume their climate responsibilities. Spatial planning actors on all levels face particular challenges here, as the already occurring climate change can only be met with preventative planning and concrete measures for climate protection and for adaptation to climate change impacts. This requires that the many spatial planning fields of activity be not only identified, but actually utilised. The working group 'Climate change and use of regenerative energies as a challenge for spatial planning' of the LAG Bavaria aims to shed light on selected aspects of the theme 'Climate change and use of regenerative energies' in diverse papers with a clear practice-based and implementation- oriented focus. The 'Zugspitz theses' put together by the members and guests of the working group summarise the most important spatially relevant 'messages' on this topic. The intention is to highlight the role of spatial planning and encourage debate on all planning and decision-making levels." (author's abstract)

Der anthropogene Klimawandel wird lokal und regional wirken und auch unsere Kulturlandschaften verändern. Einerseits sind einzelne Landschaftselemente oder Nutzungsmöglichkeiten direkt durch den Wandel der klimatischen Verhältnisse betroffen, andererseits haben die Anpassungsmaßnahmen des Menschen Auswirkungen auf die Kulturlandschaftsentwicklung, im städtischen wie im ländlichen Raum. Der Beitrag skizziert überblicksartig ausgewählte landschaftswirksame Folgen des Klimawandels sowie der Änderungen im Bereich der Energieerzeugung. Insgesamt dürften die landschaftlich relevanten Veränderungen in den unterschiedlichen betroffenen Handlungsbereichen weniger dem Klimawandel an sich zuzuweisen sein, als vielmehr den bewussten Änderungen („Anpassungen“) der Landnutzungen und Landschaftsstrukturen – sind doch die Kulturlandschaften v. a. durch die menschliche Nutzung bzw. die Nutzungsgeschichte geprägt. Zum Teil wird es jedoch auch eher punktuell oder lokal erkennbare direkte Folgen geben, z. B. in Bezug auf die Artenzusammensetzung bestimmter Biotope. Die rasante Entwicklung im Bereich der erneuerbaren Energien, insbesondere bei Biomasse und Windkraft, führt zu vergleichsweise raschen und prägnanten landschaftlichen Änderungen. Insgesamt wird deutlich, dass Landschaftsveränderungen durch den Klimawandel selbst sowie durch Mitigation und Anpassung unvermeidbar sind und daher konstruktiv – und in einer langfristigen Perspektive – in Diskussionen um die Gestaltung und Nutzung von Kulturlandschaften einbezogen werden müssen. Anthropogenic climate change will have local and regional effects and will also change our cultural landscape. On the one hand, individual landscape elements or possible land uses are directly affected by the changes in climatic conditions; on the other hand measures taken to counter climate change effects also have consequences for the development of the cultural landscape, in both urban and rural spaces. This paper outlines selected climate change effects that impact on the landscape and changes in the field of energy production. Overall changes that are relevant for the landscape in the various fields of activity are less attributable to climate change itself than to conscious changes (“adaptations”) in land uses and landscape structures – cultural landscapes are after all especially influenced by human use both past and present. To a certain extent there will however also be isolated or locally identifiable direct consequences, e. g. in terms of the species composition of certain biotopes. Rapid developments in the field of renewable energies, especially biomass and wind energy, are leading to comparatively quick and incisive landscape changes. Overall it is becoming clear that climate change itself, and mitigations and adaptations related to it, are unavoidably causing landscape change. These factors must therefore be constructively included in discussions about the shaping and use of cultural landscapes, taking a long term perspective.

Dieser Beitrag untersucht die Folgen einer polit‐ökonomischen Betrachtung des europäischen Emissionshandels (ETS) für die ökonomisch optimale klima‐ und energiepolitische Instrumentenwahl. Die aus dem wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Raum prominent vorgetragene Forderung, die energiepolitische Regulierung ausschließlich auf einen möglichst perfekten Emissionshandel zu beschränken und auf ergänzende technologiepolitische Eingriffe zu verzichten, beruht auf drei restriktiven und zugleich realitätsfremden Annahmen: Dass 1) der anthropogene Klimawandel die einzige für die Energieversorgung relevante Externalität ist, daher 2) nur die Begrenzung des CO2‐Ausstoßes ein legitimes Umweltziel darstellt und 3) der ETS über ein insoweit optimales Design verfügt, kann jedoch in der Realität nicht vorausgesetzt werden. Vielmehr erscheint der realtypische Emissionshandel aus politökonomischer Sicht als das Resultat eines politischen Regulierungsspiels. Die sich hieraus ergebenden polit‐ökonomischen Grenzen des Emissionshandels können flankierende Politikinstrumente insofern legitimieren, als dass die ergänzende Förderung Erneuerbarer Energien (EE) die gesellschaftliche Durchsetzung der gegebenen Klimaziele erleichtert, indem politisch weniger widerstandsträchtige Verteilungsschlüssel der Klimalasten gesellschaftlich organisiert werden. Die Berücksichtigung der tatsächlich bestehenden technologiepolitischen Ziele im Rahmen der Energiewende verstärkt die Notwendigkeit flankierender Politikinstrumente. Denn ein „Energiewende‐Emissionshandel“, der als Einzelinstrument den vollständigen Zielfächer der Energiewende herbeiführt, wäre schon in der Theorie überfordert, geschweige denn in der politischen Praxis durchsetzbar. Die polit‐ökonomischen Bedingungen der Energiepolitik zeigen daher zusätzliche Begründungen für einen Policy Mix auf., In this paper, we analyse the rationale for an energy policy mix when the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is considered from a public choice perspective. That is, we argue that the economic textbook model of the ETS implausibly assumes 1) anthropogenic climate change as the only relevant externality related to energy provision, 2) thus, climate protection as the single objective of policy intervention and 3) efficient policy design. Contrary to these assumptions, we propose that the ETS originates from a political bargaining game within a context of multiple policy objectives. In particular, the emissions cap is negotiated between regulators and emitters with the emitters’ abatement costs as crucial bargaining variable. This public choice view yields striking implications for the optimal policy mix. Whereas the textbook model implies that the ETS alone provides sufficient climate protection, our analysis calls for additional policies. Hence, support for renewable energies contributes to a more effective ETS‐design and may even increase the overall efficiency of climate and energy policy if other externalities and political objectives besides climate protection are considered.

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a wide range of emission scenarios in protecting climate (where ‘protecting climate’ Is used here to mean minimizing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ which results in impacts to society and the natural environment). Under baseline (no action) conditions there is a significant Increase in emissions, temperature and climate impacts. Controlling only CO2 emissions (ie freezing emissions in year 2000 at 1990 levels, and decreasing them afterwards at 1%/yr) and only in Annex I countries, does not significantly reduce the impacts observed under the baseline scenario. However, impacts are substantially reduced when emissions are controlled in both Annex I and non-Annex I countries, and when both CO2 and non-CO2 emissions are controlled. It was also found that stabilizing CO2 in the atmosphere below 450 ppm substantially reduces climate impacts. But in order to follow the pathway to stabilization at 450 ppm specified by the IPCC, global emissions can only slightly increase in the coming decades, and then must be sharply reduced. On the other hand, stabilizing CO2 in the atmosphere above 450 ppm can have significant impacts, which indicates that stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will not necessarily provide a high level of climate protection. Results from these and other scenarios are synthesized and related to climate protection goals through a new concept — ‘safe emission corridors’. These corridors indicate the allowable range of near-term global emissions (equivalent CO2) which complies with specified short- and long-term climate goals. For an illustrative set of climate goals, the allowable anthropogenic global emissions in 2010 are computed to range from 7.3 to 14.5 GtC/yr equivalent CO2 (1990 level = approximately 9.6 GtC/ yr); when these limits are set twice as strict (ie divided by two), the allowable range becomes 7.6 to 9.3 GtC/yr. To fall within this lower corridor, global emissions must be lower in 2010 than in 1990.

Part 4: Case Studies; International audience; The paper reviews various eco-feedback systems including carbon calculators and discusses how different disciplinary approaches conceptualise and explain anticipated impacts of these systems. The European collaborative research project e2democracy investigates how citizen participation combined with long-term CO2 monitoring and feedback can contribute to achieve local climate targets. Empirical results from local climate initiatives in Austria, Germany and Spain show positive effects in terms of learning about CO2 impacts, increased awareness, enhanced efforts and guidance as well as individual empowerment leading to slightly reduced CO2 emissions. The findings highlight that a combined approach integrating eco-feedback and (e )participation is promising to foster sustainability.

The purpose of this paper is to describe Malaysian climate change experiences, to highlight the lack of Malaysian initiatives in drafting a national policy on climate change, the structures, activities and national agenda of climate change issues. A description of possible climate change impacts on Malaysia, some facts and figures together with activities, structures and the national agenda are provided in this study. This study emphasises that sustainable long-term economic policy requires a workable framework for climate change and vulnerabilities that have not yet been covered in the national economy. Malaysia must visualise appropriate futures and frameworks on climate change issues, potential changes and national initiatives for planning strategies to reduce vulnerabilities. This study draws attention to the fact that Malaysia ranked 52 out of 57 in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) in 2009. Malaysian climate protection performance still lags behind other countries in the region. This study evaluates and discusses current information about on-going policy preparations on climate change issues, and provides a critical review to improve Malaysian climate change-related initiatives.

In the aftermath of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, German nuclear policy has been reconsidered. This paper demonstrates the economic e ffects of an accelerated nuclear phase-out on the German electricity generation sector. A detailed optimization model for European electricity markets is used to analyze two scenarios with di fferent lifetimes for nuclear plants (phase-out vs. prolongation). Based on political targets, both scenarios assume significant electricity demand reductions and a high share of generation from renewable energy sources in Germany. Our principal findings are: First, nuclear capacities are mainly replaced by longer lifetimes of existing coal-fired plants and the construction of new gas-fired plants. Second, fossil fuel-based generation and power imports increase, while power exports are reduced in response to the lower nuclear generation. Third, despite the increased fossil generation, challenging climate protection goals can still be achieved within the framework of the considered scenarios. Finally, system costs and electricity prices are clearly higher. We conclude that the generation sector can generally cope with an accelerated nuclear phase-out under the given assumptions. Yet, we emphasize that such a policy requires a substantial and costly transformation of the supply and the demand side.

Cities are important actors in global climate protection. Almost 80% of global CO2 emissions are produced in urban areas. At the same time cities are in a good position to bring out innovative solutions. Local initiatives in the Czech Republic often take an implicit form: they don't aim directly at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper analyses nine projects in the building sector, which have been implemented by Czech cities. It looks for factors that have contributed to the initiation of studied projects and facilitated or inhibited its implementation. Factors have been gathered throughout semi-structured interviews. The research have revealed two relevant barriers and twelve success factors, which have been classified according to the thematic categories: "Economics," "Livability," "Politics," "Institutions," and "Information." Most of them concern the category "Information," while none of them concerns the category "Livability." The research outcomes can serve as an inspiration for other cities and also for actors shaping conditions for local climate protection, in particular NGOs and central government.

Zwanzig Jahre nachdem die Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen verabschiedet wurde, fällt die Bilanz der internationalen Klimapolitik bescheiden aus. Die jährlichen Emissionen sind seit 1992 um gut ein Drittel gewachsen. Die Interessengegensätze zwischen Industrie-, Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländern sind anhaltend groß. Einer der wenigen Aspekte, über die Konsens besteht, ist das übergeordnete Ziel, den Temperaturanstieg auf zwei Grad Celsius zu beschränken. Folgt man den Kernaussagen der Klimaforschung, müssten die Emissionen zwischen 2010 und 2020 bereits deutlich reduziert werden, um ein Scheitern des von der EU durchgesetzten 2-Grad-Ziels noch zu verhindern. Angesichts eines gegenläufigen globalen Emissionstrends ist dies völlig unrealistisch. Da ein als unerreichbar geltendes Ziel politisch aber weder eine positive Symbol- noch eine produktive Steuerungsfunktion erfüllen kann, wird das zentrale Ziel der internationalen Klimapolitik unweigerlich modifiziert werden müssen. Vor diesem Hintergrund reiht sich die vorliegende Studie nicht in die Vielzahl von Untersuchungen ein, in denen dargelegt wird, mit welchen Maßnahmen sich das Überschreiten der 2-Grad-Marke theoretisch noch vermeiden ließe. Vielmehr werden hier erstmals systematisch mögliche Varianten einer Veränderung des 2-Grad-Ziels analysiert. Eine politische Diskussion über die Zukunft des 2-Grad-Ziels ist bisher ausgeblieben. Da die Emissionen weltweit immer noch ansteigen, wird die EU dieser Frage aber nicht mehr lange ausweichen können. Die hierbei entscheidenden Staats- und Regierungschefs der EU-Mitgliedstaaten werden sich darüber klarwerden müssen, wie eine Veränderung der Zielformel mit ihren jeweiligen klima-, außen- und wirtschaftspolitischen Interessen in Einklang gebracht werden kann. (Autorenreferat), In the 20 years since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted, progress in global climate policy has been modest. Annual greenhouse gas emissions have increased by over one-third since 1992. Acute conflicts of interest remain a persistent obstacle. One of the few points of general consensus in the international community is on the overarching objective of limiting the temperature increase to two degrees Celsius. If one is to accept key recommendations from scientific policy advisors, emissions will have to be reduced significantly between 2010 and 2020 to stay below the 2°C limit. Yet given that global emissions trends are moving in the opposite direction and will be impossible to reverse in a matter of a few years, this goal is patently unrealistic. And since a target that is obviously unattainable cannot fulfill either a positive symbolic function or a productive governance function, the primary target of international climate policy will have to be modified. The express aim of this paper is to stand apart from the innumerable studies detailing theoretically possible measures to avoid crossing the 2°C threshold. Instead, it provides the first systematic analysis of possible options for modifying the 2°C target. A particular focus is placed here on the relationship between climate science and climate policy. Since the EU brought the objective into the climate policy arena, the modification of the 2°C target carries the risk of damaging the EU's public image. Furthermore, it would lead to a debate over the easing of the EU's internal emissions reduction objectives which are directly derived from the 2°C target. This could become a highly controversial issue in the coming years, when the EU has to decide on its legally binding emissions target for 2030. (author's abstract)

This paper considers investments in cost-reducing technology in the context of contributions to climate protection. Contributions to mitigating climate change are analyzed in a two-period public goods framework where later contributions can be based on better information, but delaying the contribution to the public good is costly because of irreversible damages. We show that, when all countries have access to the new technology, countries have an incentive to invest in technology because this can lead to an earlier contribution of other countries and therefore reduce a country's burden of contributing to the public good. Our results provide a rationale for the support of technology sharing initiatives.

Indoor pedestrian pathways are increasingly common in cities worldwide. Montreal’s Indoor City is one of the most expansive indoor pedestrian networks in the world, extending for more than 32 kilometers (19.88 miles) and covering an area of twelve square kilometers (4.6 square miles) in the city’s downtown. The benefits associated with the growth of Montreal’s indoor network are numerous, including: improved access throughout the downtown; shorter pedestrian walking distances; year-round climate protection; and increased amounts of public spaces. The research described in this paper examines the historical growth of Montreal’s Indoor City, with the aim of exploring the factors that caused its rapid growth. Specifically, changes in pedestrian access to retail space over time are modeled in a geographic information system to highlight major phases in the growth of the network. This research develops a theoretical framework, constructs a comprehensive time sequence describing the growth of the Indoor City’s pedestrian network, and interprets the results to convey the lessons learned from Montreal’s planning policies towards the Indoor City. The results of this research suggest that a series of plans and administrative policies adopted by the City of Montreal over the past 45 years have had a significant impact on the growth of the Indoor City. At the same time, it is also clear that access to retail and public transit (especially the underground metro lines), as well as a loophole in the Montreal legislative system, have had significant effects on the growth of the Indoor City.

In the aftermath of the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima, German nuclear policy has been reconsidered. This paper demonstrates the economic effects of an accelerated nuclear phase-out on the German electricity generation sector. A detailed optimization model for European electricity markets is used to analyze two scenarios with different lifetimes for nuclear plants (phase-out vs. prolongation). Based on political targets, both scenarios assume significant electricity demand reductions and a high share of generation from renewable energy sources in Germany. Our principal findings are: First, nuclear capacities are mainly replaced by longer lifetimes of existing coal-fired plants and the construction of new gas-fired plants. Second, fossil fuel-based generation and power imports increase, while power exports are reduced in response to the lower nuclear generation. Third, despite the increased fossil generation, challenging climate protection goals can still be achieved within the framework of the considered scenarios. Finally, system costs and electricity prices are clearly higher. We conclude that the generation sector can generally cope with an accelerated nuclear phase-out under the given assumptions. Yet, we emphasize that such a policy requires a substantial and costly transformation of the supply and the demand side.

This paper explores Climate Protection at a local level. Initially it was essential to define and understand the “Greenhouse Effect” before evaluating local authorities’ potential to counteract it. We examined strategies dealing with the problem of climate change and particular emphasis was placed on the potential for local authorities to exert an influence. We examined the frameworks, policies, challenges, problems and best practices for climate protection at a local level. Our research examined ten municipalities on the island of Rhodes in Greece and assessed their current contribution to climate protection. Results showed that all ten municipalities implement a range of measures to protect the climate and reduce CO2 emissions

Revised July 2011James K. Boyce and Matthew Riddle have updated earlier anlysis that examines the household-level impacts of a cap-and-dividend plan, and how they differ between states. In this paper, the authors not only consider the specific parameters of the 2010 CLEAR Act, but also add an assessment of the state-by-state job creation that would have resulted from the bill. Boyce & Riddle find that interstate differences in the bill’s impact on household incomes would have been small: much smaller than differences across the income spectrum, and vastly smaller than the differences in other federal programs, such as defense spending. As a result, the CLEAR Act would have delivered positive net benefits to the majority of households in every state. Where there are interstate differences, Boyce & Riddle suggest ways in which the CLEAR Act could have been modified to eliminate them altogether.

Most scientists agree that, at least for the time being, unquantified uncertainties are inevitably connected to predictions of climate models. Uncertainties, however, do not justify political inaction. This paper addresses the question of how epistemic uncertainties are of relevance for practical decision making. It is shown how common decision approaches based on the precautionary principle fail to adequately deal with uncertainties as they arise in climate modeling. I argue that with regards to climate change, unquantified uncertainties can neither be ignored in decision making nor be reduced to quantified ones by assigning subjective probabilities. This distinguishes the ethical problems associated with climate change from other problems regarding energy supply and demand like, for example, those associated with nuclear power., Intergenerational Justice Review, Vol 3, No 3 (2009): Climate Change and Intergenerational Justice

Focusing on individual motorists in car-owning households in Germany, this paper econometrically investigates the determinants of automobile travel with the specific aim of quantifying the effects of fuel prices and person-level attributes on travel conducted over a five-day week and weekend. Our analysis is predicated on the notion that car use is an individual decision, albeit one that is dependent on intra-household allocation processes, thereby building on a growing body of literature that has identified the importance of socioeconomic factors such as employment status, gender, and the presence of children in determining both access to the car and distance driven. To capture this two-stage decision process, we employ the Two-Part Model, which consists of Probit and OLS estimators, and derive elasticity estimates that incorporate both the discrete and continuous choices pertaining to car use. With fuel price elasticity estimates ranging between -0.42 and -0.48, our results suggest raising prices via fuel taxes to be a promising energy conservation and climate protection measure.

Zusammenfassung : In dieser Studie werden Dokumente der Europäischen Kommission zur künftigen Klimaschutzstrategie, eine Studie von McKinsey sowie ein UNFCCC-Papier in Hinblick auf Aussagen zu Klimaschutzmaßnahmen im Agrar- und Forstbereich untersucht. Die EU-Dokumente lassen einen steigenden politischen Handlungsbedarf für den Klimaschutz auch außerhalb des Treibhausgasemissions-Handelssystems (EU-ETS) erwarten. Die anderen beiden Dokumente geben Einschätzungen zu weltweiten Klimaschutzpotentialen wieder, und die Ergebnisse sind nur sehr eingeschränkt auf Deutschland anwendbar. In Kapitel 3 werden erste Ergebnisse einer Literaturanalyse zu Potentialen und Kosten von Maßnahmen im Agrarbereich dargestellt. Die Literaturanalyse ergab keine umfassenden, für Deutschland gültigen Aussagen, vielmehr zeigt sich eine hohe Sensitivität von Methoden, Annahmen und Systemabgrenzungen für die Bewertungen von THG-Minderungsmaßnahmen im Agrarsektor. Zur Bewertung von Minderungspotentialen und Kosten von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen im Agrarsektor gibt es daher weiteren Untersuchungsbedarf. Für den Forstsektor werden in Kapitel 4 die Kohlenstoffsequestrierung und Treibhausgas-Vermeidungskosten durch Aufforstung und Forstmanagement dargestellt. Die Studie schließt in Kapitel 5 mit Schlussfolgerungen für die Politik. Im Agrarbereich sollten bereits festgelegte Umweltziele, die dem Klimaschutz dienen, verfolgt werden (Optimierung Biogasanlagen, Moorschutz, Reduzierung von Stickstoffüberschuss und Ammoniakemissionen). Solange die künftigen Anerkennungsregeln für die Kohlenstoffsequestrierung im Wald noch nicht feststehen, sollten keine Anreize zu einer weiteren Ausweitung des Kohlenstoffspeichers durch Forstmanagement gesetzt werden. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: In this study, documents of the European Commission on future climate policies, and a McKinsey study and an UNFCCC paper are analysed with regards to measures for climate protection in the agricultural and forestry sector. The EU documents suggest an increasing need for political action for climate protection outside the emission trading system (EU-ETS). The other documents reflect mitigation potentials at global scale, and results are of limited relevance for the German situation. In chapter 3, preliminary results of a literature analysis on potentials and costs of measures in agriculture are presented. The analysis yielded no comprehensive results applicable to Germany, rather there exists a high sensitivity of methods, assumptions and system limitations for the valuation of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation options in the agricultural sector. Thus, further analysis is needed for evaluating mitigation potentials and cost of abatement measures in agriculture. With regards to the forest sector, in chapter 4 carbon sequestration and GHG abatement cost of afforestation and forest management are described. The study closes with conclusions for policy. In the agricultural sector, existing environmental policy targets should be pursued, which also support climate protection (optimising biogas plants, protection of organic soils, reduction of nitrogen surplus and ammonia emissions). As long as future accounting rules for carbon sequestration in forests are not defined, no incentives should be established for further increasing carbon sinks through forest management.

Luxembourg is on the winner's side of tax competition in the field of excise duties on goods as gasoline, cigarettes and coffee. The paper simulates revenues from the taxation of petrol and diesel on the basis of the year 2005. Unlike other studies of cross-border "tankering" we differentiate between four distinct consumer groups: domestic consumption, fuel tourism, consumption of cross-border commuters, and consumption of transit traffic. On the basis of the ensuing, extremely volatile demand we construct a simple, empirically calibrated simulation model for tax revenue and the Laffer-curve. We also look at the trade-off between revenue maximization and climate protection - naturally with special emphasis on the section of the Laffer-curve where both objects harmonise.

In order to limit climate change to a temperature rise of 2°C, developed countries must reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2020 compared to 1990. Germany can support a 30% reduction in the EU with its own commitment of 40% by 2020. With the measures presented in this paper, Germany can reduce 224 Million tonnes (Mt) of energy related CO2 emissions.

Die deutsche Klimapolitik gehört zu den anspruchvollsten und effektivsten im internationalen Vergleich. Während die Treibhausgas-Emissionen in etlichen Industrieländern auch nach Abschluss der UN-Klimarahmenkonvention (1992) gestiegen sind, sanken sie in Deutschland um rund 18 Prozent. Die Veränderungen im ostdeutschen Energieund Industriesektor haben dazu wesentlich, aber nicht alles, beigetragen. Auch um den Stand der internationalen Klimaverhandlungen wäre es ohne das deutsche Engagement weit schlechter bestellt. Was treibt Deutschland zu dieser Vorreiter- und Durchhaltepolitik im globalen Klimaschutz, eine Politik, die über einen langen Zeitraum nur selten schwächelte, trotz zwischenzeitlich wechselnder Regierungen, stark veränderter sozioökonomischer Rahmenbedingungen, erschwerter Bedingungen für weitergehende Senkung der Treibhausgas-Emissionen, erheblicher Konflikte mit machtvollen Wirtschaftslobbyisten etwa der Energie- und Automobilbranchen und einer bis heute andauernden mehrheitlichen Ablehnung der sogenannten Öko-Steuer durch die Bevölkerung? In diesem Beitrag werden verschiedene Erklärungsmöglichkeiten diskutiert, insbesondere der Einfluss eines „weitsichtigen Eigeninteresses“ an globalem Klimaschutz in Politik und Gesellschaft, die Eigendynamik institutioneller und anderer Kapazitäten für Klimaschutz und die politikprägende Kraft globaler Gerechtigkeitsnormen. Im Ergebnis lässt sich die deutsche Klimapolitik deuten als Summe der Kombinationseffekte von (a) begünstigenden Strukturen, Institutionen und Akteurskonfigurationen, die sich seit den 1970er Jahren im Verlauf der konfliktreichen Entwicklungen in der Luftreinhaltepolitik herausgebildet und im Sinne einer „positiven Pfadabhängigkeit“ gewirkt haben, und (b) einer weitverbreiteten (gleichwohl politisch fragilen) Sensibilisierung für globale Verantwortlichkeit und Verantwortung gegenüber „dem Rest der Welt“ im Sinne der hohen Akzeptanz von globaler Fairness als klimapolitische Handlungsnorm. Gleichwohl lässt die klare Dominanz des Konzepts der (national orientierten) „ökologischen Modernisierung“ über dem der (globalen bis kosmophilen) „nachhaltigen Entwicklung“ bei der Gestaltung und Interpretation der Klimapolitik vermuten, dass einer progressiven globalen Klimapolitik wesentlich deshalb zugestimmt wird, weil sowohl eine gesamtwirtschaftlich als auch persönlich positive Kosten-Nutzen-Bilanz erwartet wird. Wo im Falle eines starken Zielkonfliktes zwischen nationalen und globalen Gemeinwohlinteressen die Akzeptanzgrenze für nationale Vorreiterpolitik liegen könnte, ist ungewiss aufgrund der weitgehend ignorierten und nicht thematisierten Wissenslücken zu den sozioökonomischen Verteilungseffekten der Klimapolitik. Die nationalen distributiven Effekte der Klimapolitik – die Frage nach den Nutznießern und den finanziell belasteten Gruppen in Deutschland – werden hierzulande so wenig öffentlich thematisiert, als gäbe es ein „klimapolitisch-engagiertes Schweigekartell“: Weder Umweltpolitiker noch die einschlägige scientific community haben bislang die nationalen Verteilungseffekte der gesamten bisherigen klimapolitischen Maßnahmen (einschließlich Emissionshandelssystem) zum öffentlichen Thema gemacht, geschweige denn die erheblichen zusätzlichen Belastungen, die durch die angestrebten Ziele und die Verpflichtungen insbesondere gegenüber Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern im Anschluss an das Kyoto-Protokoll zu erwarten sind. Dies gilt auch für Nichtregierungsorganisationen (zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen des Umwelt- und Entwicklungshilfebereichs), die ansonsten dezidiert für eine global gerechte Klimapolitik eintreten. Infolge dieses systematisch verzerrten klimapolitischen (Gerechtigkeits-) Diskurses liegt nur scheinbar eine hohe Zustimmung der Bevölkerung zur staatlichen Klimapolitik und zu den (oft weit darüber hinausgehenden) Forderungen der Nichtregierungsorganisationen nach globaler Gerechtigkeit vor: Es handelt sich eher um eine uninformierte Zustimmung als um einen informierten Konsens. Da außerdem die wenigen Untersuchungen zu den nationalen Verteilungsfolgen bisheriger Klimapolitik (theoretisch erwartbare) regressive Verteilungseffekte aufzeigen (d. h. sozial schwächere Gruppen werden überproportional belastet), muss die Frage umso mehr offen bleiben, wieweit mit einer sozial unfairen nationalen Klimapolitik das Ziel einer global gerechten Klimapolitik erreicht werden kann. Sieht man jedoch ab von dieser „inconvenient truth“ einer inländisch zunehmend verteilungsungerechten Klimapolitik, und auch von dem „demokratietheoretischen Schönheitsfehler“ eines unvollständigen und verzerrten Klimapolitikfolgen- Diskurses, dann ist die deutsche Klimapolitik im internationalen Vergleich bislang der „relative empirische Optimalfall“ einer staatliche Klimapolitik, die gesamtstaatliche Wohlfahrtsgewinne mit einer Dynamisierung der globalen Klimaschutzpolitik verbindet. German climate change policy is one of the most ambitious and effective climate protection endeavours worldwide. While greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased in several industrialized countries even after ratification of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), they dropped in Germany by about 18 per cent. Transformations in the East German energy and industrial sectors have contributed much to this development, but they do not account for it entirely. Furthermore, international climate protection negotiations would be in a much worse state without Germany’s strong commitment. What has driven Germany to become – and stay – a frontrunner in global climate protection policy, and to pursue a national climate policy which, over time, has only rarely lost momentum despite different governments, significantly altered socioeconomic conditions, more difficult circumstances for enabling further reductions of GHG emissions, considerable conflicts with powerful economic lobbies (e.g. the energy and automobile sectors) and a majority of the German population rejecting the so-called eco-tax? This paper discusses various plausible explanations, especially the influence of a “farsighted self-interest” in global climate protection on the part of government and society, the momentum of institutional and other capacities for climate protection and the ability of global equity norms to shape policies. As a result, German climate protection policy can be interpreted as the sum of the combined effects of (a) favourable structures, institutions and actor constellations that have come about since the 1970s in the course of conflict-laden developments in air pollution control policy, (b) the “positive path dependency” of these structures, institutions and actors; and (c) a widespread (albeit politically fragile) awareness of global liabilities and responsibilities towards “the rest of the world” in the sense of a high acceptance of global fairness as a guiding norm for climate-political action. Nevertheless the clear domination of (nation-oriented) “ecological modernization” over (global to cosmopolitical) “sustainable development” in the generation and interpretation of climate policy leads to the assumption that progressive global climate policy is generally accepted among Germans because the population expects an economically as well as personally favourable cost-benefit balance. It is uncertain where, in cases of strongly conflicting aims between the national public interest and global common welfare, the line of support for national forerunner policies would be drawn. This is uncertain because of a largely ignored lack of knowledge about the socioeconomic distribution effects of climate change policy. What is striking is that such distributive effects and the question of who benefits from and who pays for climate policy in Germany are so rarely addressed that one could be led to suspect that the apparent “mantle of silence” surrounding the issue is deliberate. Neither politicians nor the relevant scientific community have up to now made national distribution effects of all climate-policy measures (including the emissions trading system) an issue for public discourse, not to mention considerable additional burdens which are expected to accrue from planned goals and obligations for developing and transition countries in the post- Kyoto phase. This also applies to non-governmental organizations (civil society organizations in the areas of environmental protection and development aid) although they usually decidedly advocate globally just climate policies. Because of the systematically distorted climate-political (equity) discourse the German population’s acceptance of governmental climate change policy (and of NGO demands for even more ambitious policies) is only ostensibly high: it is a matter of uninformed consent rather than informed consensus. And since the few studies on national redistributional effects of climate policy that do exist indicate probable regressive distributional effects (i.e. weaker social groups are disproportionately burdened), it remains an open question, whether the goal of a globally just climate policy can be achieved through socially unjust domestic climate policies. Irrespective of this “inconvenient truth” and the “democratic flaw” represented by the incomplete and distorted discourse on the consequences of climate policy, German climate change policy, by international comparison, can still be considered a relatively empirically optimal case for a governmental policy that combines national welfare gains with the promotion of global climate protection.

"The objective of this paper is to analyse China s energy and raw material diplomacy in the context of recent global energy developments and the EU-China relationship. For several years, the EU and its member states pay increasingly attention to China's energy diplomacy, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. In the view of the EU, China's neo-mercantilist energy policies are threatening the EU s foreign and developments policies such as in Africa. In contrast to China s official non-intervention policies, they are guided by political pre-conditions of supporting democracy, market economies, human rights, good governance and sustainability. As the result of economic and foreign policy globalization on both sides, China s energy diplomacy in the Middle East and Africa has become one of the new controversial issues of an increasingly ambivalent and complex EU-China relationship of regional and global cooperation, competition and diplomatic conflicts." (author's abstract), Der Autor analysiert die Energie- und Ressourcendiplomatie Chinas vor dem Hintergrund der globalen Entwicklungen und der Beziehungen zur Europäischen Union. Er gibt zunächst einen Überblick über die umweltpolitischen Veränderungen der letzten Jahre auf internationaler Ebene und kommentiert vor diesem Hintergrund Chinas Energie- und Energieaußenpolitik, welche inzwischen nicht nur in den USA, sondern auch in der EU und in Deutschland kritisch bewertet wird. Die neue Aufmerksamkeit der EU und der Kommission gegenüber Chinas Energie- und Ressourcenpolitik erklärt sich nicht zuletzt aus den globalen Dimensionen und Auswirkungen des chinesischen "Energiehungers". Darüber hinaus wird Chinas Energie- und Ressourcendiplomatie in Afrika, im Mittleren Osten und im Iran zunehmend als problematisch angesehen, da sie neue Herausforderungen für die europäische Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik mit sich bringt. Für die Zukunft ist nach Ansicht des Autors eine vertiefte Partnerschaft zwischen der EU und China notwendig, um eine internationale Ordnungspolitik sowie ein regionales Krisen- und Konfliktmanagement im Mittleren Osten und in Afrika zu ermöglichen. Dies setzt aber eine global verantwortliche Politik Chinas und ein strategisches Denken mit klarer Interessendefinition auf beiden Seiten voraus. (ICI)

The aim of this paper is to examine the renewable energy sources in Austria with respect to their accessibility, availability and acceptance and to give an economic order for their expansion.

"The 'Kyoto Protocol', as the first and only implementation mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), will expire by the year 2012. There are, however, many good reasons not to abandon this multilateral approach to climate change, but to soon go for a new round - 'Kyoto II'. In doing so, the treaty must be thoroughly scrutinized for its deficiencies, as regards targets, instruments, and institutions. Particularly, and for various reasons, the Kyoto Protocol which is predominantly an economic concept should be supplemented by a technological companion - the 'Houston Protocol' - under the UN Climate Convention. This paper shows how such an innovative 'double strategy' of future climate policy might look like." (author's abstract)

The objective of this paper is to assess the likely allocation effects of the current cli-mate protection strategy as it is laid out in the National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The multi-regional, multi-sectoral CGE-model DART is used to simulate the effects of the current policies in the year 2012 when the Kyoto targets need to be met. Different scenarios are simulated in or-der to highlight the effects of the grandfathering of permits to energy-intensive instal-lations, the use of the project-based mechanisms (CDM and JI), and the restriction imposed by the supplementarity criterion.

"The paper attempts to shed some light on the kind of role equity norms play in German sustainable development policy and the related discourse, focusing on the issue of global climate change. Especially the tensions between the public discussion of equity among and within nations are investigated. Attitudes and commitments of the general public and the main actor groups towards global climate change policies and related equity issues are analyzed. One of the central findings of the analysis is that the norm of global fairness enjoys broad (rhetorical) support by all actor groups and the public. However, the support by the public must be characterized as uninformed consent because the effects of the various global climate policies within Germany are either not discussed or played down by the proponents of a progressive climate change policy. The debates are framed by two different but overlapping discourses informed by the concepts of sustainable development or ecological modernization. While with respect to global climate change policy the sustainable development discourse dominates at the programmatic level (concerned with norms, values and fairness principles), it is clearly the concept of ecological modernization that underlies the concrete policies." (author's abstract), "In dieser Studie geht es um die Frage, welche Rolle globale Fairness-Normen in der deutschen Nachhaltigkeitspolitik spielen. Sie wird am Beispiel der Klimapolitik Deutschlands, und zwar auf der nationalen und der lokalen (Lokale-Agenda-21-Prozesse) Ebene untersucht. Fokussiert werden insbesondere die Spannungen, die zwischen Fairness-Konzepten auftreten, die einerseits auf den globalen Raum und andererseits den Nationalstaatsraum bezogen sind. Das betrifft insbesondere Spannungen zwischen konsensbasierten Normen globaler Gerechtigkeit und nationalen Gemeinwohlerfordernissen. In der realen Klimapolitik erweist sich, dass diese Bezüge selten systematisch analysiert und diskutiert werden. Das gilt für die öffentliche Diskussion ebenso wie für den Wissenschaftsbereich. Hieraus folgt unter anderem, dass es zwar eine breite öffentliche Unterstützung für eine progressive Klimapolitik auf der Basis globaler Gerechtigkeitsnormen gibt, diese Unterstützung aber in weitgehender Unkenntnis über die sozioökonomischen Verteilungsfolgen einer solchen Politik für die Bevölkerung innerhalb Deutschlands erfolgt. Die negativen Equity-Konsequenzen der Klimapolitik innerhalb Deutschlands stehen völlig im Schatten der dominierenden globalen Fairness-Debatte. Gleichwohl sind die konkreten Politiken vom (pragmatischen) Konzept der 'ökologischen Modernisierung' bestimmt, das weitgehend mit konventionellen Gemeinwohlvorstellungen übereinstimmt. Das 'Nachhaltigkeitskonzept', dem das Ziel globaler Gerechtigkeit zugrunde liegt, beherrscht hingegen die programmatisch-rhetorische Ebene der globalen Klimapolitik beherrscht." (Autorenreferat)

International concern about climate change has led to the Kyoto Protocol, negotiated in 1997, which contains legally binding emission targets for industrialized countries to be achieved during the commitment period 2008-2012. While proponents of the Protocol celebrate it as a breakthrough in international climate policy, opponents criticize that its approach, namely setting targets and timetables for emission reductions, is seriously flawed. This paper provides a critical assessment of the Protocol?s potential performance and discusses amendments to foster its effectiveness and efficiency. It concludes that, even without any effective emission reductions in the initial commitment period, the ratification of Kyoto is important for the further policy process of climate protection. The Kyoto Protocol has established a flexible broad-based international mechanism that provides a valuable starting point for shaping efficient climate policies in the future.

Ten years after the initial Climate Change Convention from Rio in 1992, the developed world is likely to ratify the Kyoto Protocol which has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection. Standard economic theory, however, casts doubt that Kyoto will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol obeys the theoretical prediction: Kyoto more or less boils down to business-as-usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties.

A method is presented for computing long-term greenhouse gas emission pathways for both industrial ("Annex B") countries and developing ("non-Annex B") countries. This method combines two main factors: (i) climate protection goals, in the form of targets for stabilising CO2 in the atmosphere, and (ii) the allocation of global emissions to industrial and developing countries based on a so-called "burden sharing" scheme. In this paper two CO2 stabilisation targets are investigated - stabilisation at 450 ppm in 2100 and 550 ppm in 2150. The burden sharing scheme is based on the following rules: A non-Annex B country increases its emissions according to a "baseline" no-policy scenario until its national income reaches a specified "graduation" income level. After reaching this level it freezes its per capita emissions until they are equal to the average per capita emissions in Annex B countries. After this point, the per capita emissions of the non-Annex B country are the same as the average for Annex B countries. For a variety of assumptions about the graduation income level, it was found that the two stabilisation targets can be achieved even if total emissions from non-Annex B countries increase until around 2030. However, after this point, emissions from these countries must stabilise or be sharply reduced.

Increasing concerns about the potential risks involved in anthropogenic climate change over the past ten years have boosted the intensity of research efforts on all aspects of the problem and motivated an integrated analysis of their results. This paper is intended to provide a short overview of modeling approaches to integrated assessments of climate change. It also presents an innovative concept, the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA), as it is adopted in a new research project called Integrated Assessment of Climate Protection Strategies (ICLIPS) at PIK. The approach is based on an inverse modeling concept that derives climate stabilization objectives from perceived unacceptable impacts and produces complete sets of permitted emission paths satisfying the corresponding climate change constraints. Initial results show that the approach is a promising new direction in integrated modeling.

A trend towards “softer” regulation, especially in the form of negotiated environmental agreements, is observable in national and international environmental policies. Such agreements are controversial, because there are fears that government will relinquish its responsibility for environmental protection. This paper analyses recent experiences with voluntary agreements in Germany. Topical German examples that have prompted public debates include the takeback agreement for cars, the voluntary agreement made by a number of industries on a CO2 reduction by the year 2005 and the voluntary agreement made by the automobile industry on the development of energy-efficient cars.

In the context of climate protection policy it has been suggested that global CO2 emissions should be reduced significantly (contraction) and that per capita emissions should gradually be equalized across countries (convergence). This paper uses a dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium model of the world economy to assess the economics of ?Contraction and Convergence? (C&C). In comparing a regime of tradable and non-tradable emission rights for implementing C&C we find that the former allows to reduce long-term costs of abatement in terms of Hicksian equivalent variation in lifetime income by more than 50% percent in comparison with the latter. Under a tradable permit regime some developing countries improve their economic welfare even beyond non-abatement baseline levels. A decomposition of the general equilibrium effects associated with C&C shows that changes in the terms of trade constitute a key determinant of the overall welfare effects.

This paper presents and discusses an integrated set of policies designed to reduce U.S. carbon emissions over the next four decades. This innovation path also aims to promote environmental quality, particularly by reducing emissions of criteria air pollutants, to reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, and to induce technological innovation and diffusion in energy production and consumption. The innovation path would reduce economy-wide carbon emissions by 26% below baseline projections for 2010 and by 62% below baseline projections for 2030; this translates into 10% below 1990 levels in 2010 and 45% below 1990 levels in 2030. Emissions of criteria pollutants also would be significantly reduced, as would petroleum imports by the United States. Moreover, the innovation path would yield cumulative net savings for the United States of $218 billion (1993 dollars) through 2010, or $19 billion on a leveled annual basis, and would result in 800,000 additional jobs nationwide by 2010. Although the overall findings from the innovation path analysis are robust, the results should be taken as indicative, rather than precisely predictive, owing to uncertainties in future costs, prices, technology performance, and consumer behavior.

A trend towards softer regulation, especially in the form of negotiated environmental agreements, is observable in national and international environmental policies. Such agreements are controversial, because there are fears that government will relinquish its responsibility for environmental protection. This paper analyses recent experiences with voluntary agreements in Germany. Topical German examples that have prompted public debates include the takeback agreement for cars, the voluntary agreement made by a number of industries on a C02 reduction by the year 2005 and the voluntary agreement made by the automobile industry on the development of energy-efficient cars. Proponents of voluntary agreements argue that this instrument provides incentives to the business sector for the development of efficient, innovative and environmentally-friendly solutions. Analysing the examples mentioned above, we conclude that it is hard to detect solutions derserving such attributes. These agreements are unlikely to produce results that go beyond what industry would have done in any case and they avoid using economic incentives. The agreements are' non-binding and unenforceable, with the negotiating process leading to a watering down of the environmental goals government had originally aimed at. A preference for negotiated solutions on principle, as currently espoused by the Federal Government in Germany, seems to be counterproductive. If the government clearly signals its willingness to refrain from using regulatory or economic instruments in favour of industry agreements, it weakens its negotiating position. The government also limits its options should the implementation of the agreement prove unsatisfactory. Government needs to be 'in control in order to leave its choice of policy instruments open and to be flexible. In a last step, we derive some general conclusions concerning reasonable strategies and applications of voluntary agreements within the European Union.

On December 9, 1993, the Federal Republic of Germany submitted its ratification declaration on the Framework Convention on Climate Change to the United Nations. Already in August 1993, the German government had presented a preliminary report entitled “Climate Protection in Germany” in anticipation of Article 12 of the Convention. This paper is based on the first full report published in September 1994, which is an updated, substantially revised and expanded version of that preliminary report.

Taking into account the fact of global economic integration, this paper improves the RICE model and the MRICES model, and establishes a new integrated assessment model MRICES-2012, which takes Ramsey utility as the standard of fairness. Based on the model, schemes which meet the global emission mitigation targets as well as the interests of developing countries are simulated to assess the international fairness of emission reduction. Therefore, a new feasible scheme is proposed, which can not only reach the Copenhagen Consensus but also ensure interests of every country. Specifically speaking, the US and Japan cut emissions 80% and 70% respectively by 2050 relative to the 1990 level; the EU and other developed countries cut 80% by 2050 relative to 1990 level; high human development countries cut 50% by 2050 relative to 1990 level; all above-mentioned countries start emission reduction from 2020 and keep emission on 2050 level by 2100; China begins emission reduction from 2030 and cuts emission 15% by 2050 and 25% by 2100 relative to 2005 level; medium human development countries keep emission on 2020 level by 2100; low human development countries do not take part in reduction on emission intensity and global emission.

This article examines the local outcomes of Sao Paulo city’s engagement in transnational networks for climate protection. The participation of municipalities in such networks has been an important driver in fostering local initiatives to protect global climate. There have been accounts of many cases of mitigation measures implemented successfully at the local level, demonstrating significant carbon emissions reductions, thus helping national governments in their emissions reductions efforts. However, few studies have explored the linkages between transnational engagement, implementation of subnational climate action, and the actual national commitments in developing countries. This paper assesses the role of local engagement in transnational networks in the adoption and implementation of climate policies and legislation in the city of Sao Paulo, and its impact on the Brazilian government’s climate action, in the period between 2002 and 2014. Sao Paulo was an active member of ICLEI’s Cities for Cli...