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Background: An increased risk of breast cancer for relatives of breast cancer patients has been demonstrated in many studies, and having a relative diagnosed with breast cancer at an early age is an indication for breast cancer screening. This indication has been derived from estimates based on data from cancer-prone families or from BRCA1/2 mutation families, and might be biased because BRCA1/2 mutations explain only a small proportion of the familial clustering of breast cancer. The aim of the current study was to determine the predictive value of a family history of cancer with regard to early onset of female breast cancer in a population based setting.Methods: An unselected sample of 1,987 women with and without breast cancer was studied with regard to the age of diagnosis of breast cancer.Results: The risk of early-onset breast cancer was increased when there were: (1) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first-degree relatives (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.09; 95% CI: 128-7.44), (2) at least 2 cases of female breast cancer in first or second-degree relatives under the age of 50 (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.36; 95% CI: 1.12-10.08), (3) at least 1 case of female breast cancer under the age of 40 in a first- or second-degree relative (yes/no; HR at age 30: 2.06; 95% CI: 0.83-5.12) and (4) any case of bilateral breast cancer (yes/no; HR at age 30: 3.47; 95%: 1.33-9.05). The positive predictive value of having 2 or more of these characteristics was 13% for breast cancer before the age of 70, 11% for breast cancer before the age of 50, and 1% for breast cancer before the age of 30.Conclusion: Applying family history related criteria in an unselected population could result in the screening of many women who will not develop breast cancer at an early age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used human fetal bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stromal cells (hfMSCs) differentiating towards chondrocytes as an alternative model for the human growth plate (GP). Our aims were to study gene expression patterns associated with chondrogenic differentiation to assess whether chondrocytes derived from hfMSCs are a suitable model for studying the development and maturation of the GP. hfMSCs efficiently formed hyaline cartilage in a pellet culture in the presence of TGFβ3 and BMP6. Microarray and principal component analysis were applied to study gene expression profiles during chondrogenic differentiation. A set of 232 genes was found to correlate with in vitro cartilage formation. Several identified genes are known to be involved in cartilage formation and validate the robustness of the differentiating hfMSC model. KEGG pathway analysis using the 232 genes revealed 9 significant signaling pathways correlated with cartilage formation. To determine the progression of growth plate cartilage formation, we compared the gene expression profile of differentiating hfMSCs with previously established expression profiles of epiphyseal GP cartilage. As differentiation towards chondrocytes proceeds, hfMSCs gradually obtain a gene expression profile resembling epiphyseal GP cartilage. We visualized the differences in gene expression profiles as protein interaction clusters and identified many protein clusters that are activated during the early chondrogenic differentiation of hfMSCs showing the potential of this system to study GP development.

We describe a new multivariate gamma distribution and discuss its implication in a Poisson-correlated gamma-frailty model. This model is introduced to account for between-subjects correlation occurring in longitudinal count data. For likelihood-based inference involving distributions in which high-dimensional dependencies are present, it may be useful to approximate likelihoods based on the univariate or bivariate marginal distributions. The merit of composite likelihood is to reduce the computational complexity of the full likelihood. A 2-stage composite-likelihood procedure is developed for estimating the model parameters. The suggested method is applied to a meta-analysis study for survival curves.

Research suggests that chronically ill patients and their partners perceive illness differently, and that these differences have a negative impact on patients' quality of life (QoL). This study assessed whether illness perceptions of patients with Huntington's disease (HD) differ from those of their partners, and examined whether spousal illness perceptions are important for the QoL of the couples (n = 51 couples). Partners reported that their HD-patient spouses suffered more symptoms and experienced less control than the patients themselves reported. Illness perceptions of patients and partners correlated significantly with patient QoL. Partners' beliefs in a long duration of the patients' illness and less belief in cure, were associated with patient vitality scores. Suggestions for future research emphasize the importance of qualitative research approaches in combination with cognitive-behavioural approaches.

In genetic epidemiological studies informative families are often oversampled to increase the power of a study. For a proband-family design, where relatives of probands are sampled, we derive the score statistic to test for clustering of binary and quantitative traits within families due to genetic factors. The derived score statistic is robust to ascertainment scheme. We considered correlation due to unspecified genetic effects and/or due to sharing alleles identical by descent (IBD) at observed marker locations in a candidate region. A simulation study was carried out to study the distribution of the statistic under the null hypothesis in small data-sets. To illustrate the score statistic, data from 33 families with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM2) were analyzed. In addition to the binary outcome DM2 we also analyzed the quantitative outcome, body mass index (BMI). For both traits familial aggregation was highly significant. For DM2, also including IBD sharing at marker D3S3681 as a cause of correlation gave an even more significant result, which suggests the presence of a trait gene linked to this marker. We conclude that for the proband-family design the score statistic is a powerful and robust tool for detecting clustering of outcomes.

Competing events concerning individual subjects are of interest in many medical studies. For example, leukemia-free patients surviving a bone marrow transplant are at risk of developing acute or chronic graft-versus-host disease, or they might develop infections. In this situation, competing risks models provide a natural framework to describe the disease. When incorporating covariates influencing the transition intensities, an obvious approach is to use Cox's proportional hazards model for each of the transitions separately. A practical problem then is how to deal with the abundance of regression parameters. Our objective is to describe the competing risks model in fewer parameters, both in order to avoid imprecise estimation in transitions with rare events and in order to facilitate interpretation of these estimates. Suppose that the regression parameters are gathered into a p x K matrix B, with p and K as the number of covariates and transitions, respectively. We propose the use of reduced rank models, where B is required to be of lower rank R, smaller than both p and K. One way to achieve this is to write B = AGamma(intercal) with A and Gamma matrices of dimensions p x R and K x R, respectively. We shall outline an algorithm to obtain estimates and their standard errors in a reduced rank proportional hazards model for competing risks and illustrate the approach on a competing risks model applied to 8966 leukemia patients from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation.

Background: Transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) is feasible and accurate in the differentiation between non-malignant and malignant ovarian abnormalities. However, despite the clinical relevance, the accuracy of TVU in the differentiation between the many different non-malignant cysts is unknown., Methods: Between 1992 and 2002, all women who had surgery at our centre because of a non-malignant ovarian cyst were included prospectively in this study. The sonographic characteristics as well as the expected histological diagnosis (the 'sonohistological diagnosis') were evaluated pre-operatively. This diagnosis was compared with the histopathological diagnosis, and diagnostic parameters [with 95% confidence interval (CI)] of the sonohistological diagnosis were calculated. Logistic models, with the sonographic characteristics as variables, were constructed for each histopathological diagnosis., Results: A total of 406 women were included consecutively. The overall diagnostic accuracy of the sonohistological diagnosis was 60% (95% CI 0.56-0.65). Only in cases of simple ovarian cysts did the diagnostic accuracy of the respective logistic model exceed that of the sonohistological diagnosis (0.88 versus 0.81, P < 0.01). The diagnostic accuracy of the sonohistological diagnosis for endometriotic and dermoid ovarian cysts was significantly better compared with the respective logistic model (0.84 versus 0.71, P < 0.01 and 0.87 versus 0.82, P = 0.03, respectively)., Conclusion: In approximately half of the non-malignant ovarian cysts, TVU is capable of distinguishing between the different histopathological diagnoses of non-malignant ovarian masses. Only in the diagnosis of simple ovarian cysts might use of the logistic models be helpful.

Airway inflammation and remodelling play an important role in the pathophysiology of asthma. Remodelling may affect childhood lung function, and this process may be reversed by anti-inflammatory treatment. The current study assessed longitudinally whether asthma affects growth of airway function relative to airspaces, and if so whether this is redressed by inhaled corticosteroids (ICS). Every 4 months for up to 3 yrs, lung function was assessed in 54 asthmatic children (initial age 7-16 yrs), who inhaled 0.2 mg salbutamol t.i.d. and 0.2 mg budesonide t.i.d. (beta2-agonist (BA)+ICS), or placebo (PL) t.i.d. (BA+PL) in a randomised, double-blind design. Measurements were carried out before and after maximal bronchodilation. Airway growth was assessed from the change of forced expiratory volume in one second and of maximal expiratory flows (at 60% and 40% of total lung capacity (TLC) remaining in the lung) relative to TLC, as measures of more central, intermediate and more peripheral airways. Growth patterns were compared with the longitudinal findings in 376 healthy children. Airway patency after maximal bronchodilation in patients on BA+PL remained reduced compared to healthy subjects, whereas in patients on BA+ICS a marked improvement was observed to subnormal. No differences between patients and controls could be demonstrated for growth patterns of central and intermediate airway function. Compliance with BA+ICS was 75% of the prescribed dose, resulting in significant, sustained improvement of symptoms and postbronchodilator calibre of central and intermediate airways to subnormal within 2 months, but postbronchodilator small airway patency remained reduced, though improved compared to patients on BA+PL. Anti-inflammatory treatment of asthmatic children is associated with normal functional development of central and intermediate airways. The persistently reduced postbronchodilator patency of peripheral airways may reflect remodelling, or insufficient anti-inflammatory treatment.

The purpose of this research was to model the familial clustering of breast cancer and to provide an accurate risk estimate for individuals from the general population, based on their family history of breast and ovarian cancer. We constructed a genetic model as an extension of a model by Claus et al. (E. B. Claus et al., Am. J. Hum. Genet., 48: 232-242, 1991), with three breast cancer genes, BRCA1, BRCA2, and a hypothetical BRCAu, in two variants, one in which BRCAu was dominant and one in which BRCAu was recessive. The model parameters were estimated using published estimates of population incidence and relative risks. Risk estimation was performed for a set of 196 counselees and for a set of simulated counselees with both the dominant BRCAu and the recessive BRCAu model, and compared relating to medical management. Estimates of the model parameters were found. Relative risks among family members were comparable between the model of Claus et al. (E. B. Claus et al., Am. J. Hum. Genet., 48: 232-242, 1991) and our model. The dominant and the recessive model provided approximately similar lifetime risks for breast cancer. Our model is suitable for breast cancer risk estimation in a health care setting.

Background: The intrauterine device (IUD) is an effective contraceptive method. The contraceptive power as well as the side-effects of IUD are thought to relate to the position of the IUD in the uterine cavity. We assessed the accuracy of clinical evaluation of IUD position., Methods: A prospective comparative study was performed. The clinical evaluation was compared with the TVU measurement of IUD position both immediately after insertion and 6 weeks after insertion. The primary outcome measures were the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) of the clinical evaluation of IUD position., Results: 195 women were included consecutively, 181 women (92.8%) were available for follow-up. The PPV and NPV of clinical evaluation of IUD position immediately after insertion were respectively 0.60 (95% CI: 0.39-0.81) and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.96-1.0). The prevalence of an abnormally positioned IUD was 7.7% (95% CI: 3.9-11.4). The PPV and NPV of the clinical evaluation at follow-up were respectively 0.54 (95% CI: 0.26-0.81) and 1.0 (95% CI: 0.98-1.0). The prevalence of abnormal position was 4.0% (95% CI: 1.7-7.1)., Conclusion: Clinical evaluation is an excellent test for the evaluation of the position of an IUD and routine TVU is not indicated for this purpose.

Reliable and sensitive measures are needed to evaluate the quality of life (QoL) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). No lupus specific questionnaires are available. This study describes the development and validation of a disease-specific questionnaire for lupus patients, which assesses the presence and burden of 38 disease- and treatment-related symptoms: the SLE Symptom Checklist (SSC). Reliability and reproducibility were tested in respectively 87 and 28 stable SLE patients. The internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficients 0.89) and test-retest reliability (Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between 0.67 and 0.87) were satisfactory. Concurrent validity was supported by significant, but moderate correlations with other measures of subjective well-being and functional status. Responsiveness was measured in 17 patients with lupus nephritis treated with cyclophosphamide, at start of therapy and 1 year thereafter. A significant change in number of symptoms and total distress level was found. It is concluded that the SSC has satisfactory psychometric properties and appears suitable for both clinical and research purposes.

Background: In general practice airway obstruction and the bronchodilator response are usually assessed using peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements. A study was carried out in patients presenting with persistent cough to investigate to what extent PEF measurements are reliable when compared with tests using forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) as the measure of response., Methods: Data (questionnaire, physical examination, spirometry, PEF) were collected from 240 patients aged 18-75 years, not previously diagnosed with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), who consulted their general practitioner with cough of at least two weeks duration. The relationship between low PEF (PEF < PEFpred - 1.64RSD) and low FEV(1) (FEV(1) < FEV(1)pred - 1.64RSD) was tested. A positive bronchodilator response after inhaling 400 microg salbutamol was defined as an increase in FEV(1) of > or = 9% predicted and was compared with an absolute increase in PEF with cut off values of 40, 60, and 80 l/min and DeltaPEF % baseline with cut off values of 10%, 15%, and 20%., Results: Forty eight patients (20%) had low FEV(1), 86 (35.8%) had low PEF, and 32 (13.3%) had a positive bronchodilator response. Low PEF had a positive predictive value (PPV) for low FEV(1) of 46.5% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 95%. DeltaPEF of > or = 10%, > or = 15%, or > or = 20% baseline had PPVs of 36%, 52%, and 67%, respectively, and DeltaPEF of > or = 40, > or = 60, and > or = 80 l/min in absolute terms had PPVs of 39%, 45%, and 57%, respectively, for DeltaFEV(1) > or = 9% predicted; NPVs were high (88-93%)., Conclusions: Although PEF measurements can reliably exclude airway obstruction and bronchodilator response, they are not suitable for use in the assessment of the bronchodilator response in the diagnostic work up of primary care patients with persistent cough. The clinical value of PEF measurements in the diagnosis of reversible obstructive airway disease should therefore be re-evaluated.

Objective: To determine the prevalence of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients not known to have these disorders, who present in general practice with persistent cough, and to ascertain criteria to help general practitioners in diagnosis., Design: Descriptive study., Setting: Primary healthcare centre in the Netherlands., Subjects: 192 patients aged 18-75 years, not known to have asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, attending their general practitioner with cough persisting for at least 2 weeks. : A diagnosis of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was based on the recurrence of airway symptoms in the past year accompanied by spirometric measurements (including bronchodilator testing) and methacholine provocation tests. A scoring formula to estimate the probability of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, based on history and physical examination, was generated by means of logistic regression., Results: 74 patients (39%) were classified as having asthma, 14 (7%) as having chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The best formula for predicting asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease used scores for three symptoms: (reported) wheeze, (reported) dyspnoea, and allergen induced symptoms, together with prolonged expiration, pack years of smoking, and female sex. Variables were scored 1 when present and 0 when absent, except for allergen induced symptoms (1.5) and number of pack years of smoking (n/25). With a cut off value of 3 on the scoring formula, 76% of the patients could be classified correctly., Conclusions: About half of patients with persistent cough who present to a general practitioner have asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. With a simple formula based on three symptoms and prolonged expiration, pack years of smoking, and female sex, most patients may be identified correctly in general practice.

Aims: To determine the prevalence of plasma cell monotypia in labial salivary gland tissue of patients with and without Sjögren's syndrome, and to evaluate its relation to the development of systemic monoclonal lymphoproliferative disorders., Methods: A quantitative immunohistological study was performed on labial salivary gland tissue of 45 patients with Sjögren's syndrome, 18 with rheumatoid arthritis without Sjögren's syndrome, and 80 healthy controls. In none of the patients with Sjögren's syndrome was there evidence of systemic monoclonal lymphoproliferative disease at the time of biopsy., Results: Monotypic plasma cell populations, defined by a kappa:lambda ratio of > or = 3, were only observed in older patients (above 43 years) with Sjögren's syndrome. In almost all these patients monotypic plasma cell populations were present in multiple labial salivary gland tissues and the IgM/kappa monotypia was observed most frequently. The prevalence of monotypic plasma cell populations in the group with Sjögren's syndrome was 22% (10/45) and there was no significant predilection for primary Sjögren's syndrome. Of special clinical interest was the observation that progression to systemic monoclonal lymphoproliferative disease had occurred exclusively in this subgroup of patients with Sjögren's syndrome, with a prevalence of 30% (3/10)., Conclusion: Quantitative immunohistological examination of labial salivary gland tissues provides pathologists with a simple method to select those patients with Sjögren's syndrome who have an increased relative risk at the time of biopsy to develop benign or malignant lymphoproliferative disorders.

Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of quantitative immunohistologic criteria for Sjögren's syndrome (SS) in labial salivary gland biopsies., Methods: Quantitative immunohistologic examination was performed on labial salivary gland biopsy samples from 80 healthy controls, 32 patients with primary SS, 14 patients with secondary SS, 5 with "probable" SS, 36 with keratoconjunctivitis sicca (KCS) with a lymphocytic focus score less than 1 on the lip biopsy, and 18 with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) without clinical evidence of SS., Results: This is the first study to show that immunohistologic criteria for SS, based on the percentages of IgA-containing and IgG-containing plasma cells, are able to 1) confirm the diagnosis of SS in labial salivary glands of KCS patients in the absence of grade IV lymphocytic adenitis; and 2) distinguish between a grade IV focal lymphocytic adenitis in the labial salivary glands of SS patients and of RA patients without SS., Conclusion: Quantitative immunohistologic criteria were shown to be much more sensitive and disease specific than the widely accepted grade IV lymphocytic adenitis criterion, which corresponds to a lymphocytic focus score greater than 1, and these criteria should be included in the international diagnostic criteria for Sjögren's syndrome.

Coagulation and RFLP data from 41 families with an isolated haemophilia A patient were used to estimate the sex ratio of mutation frequencies (nu/mu). Based on the results of coagulation assays in all the female relatives investigated, nu/mu was estimated to be 12.1 by the maximum likelihood method (95% confidence interval 3.8 to 62.5). In order to avoid the possible influence of germline mosaicism, an additional analysis was performed in which only the results in the mothers and grandmothers of an isolated patient were included. The nu/mu ratio was then estimated to be 5.2 (95% confidence interval 1.8 to 15.1). Because an estimate of nu/mu based on all available RFLP data can easily be biased in favour of males, we set up a model in which only information on the grandparental derivation of the patient's X chromosome was used, irrespective of the generation in which the mutation actually occurred. In this way nu/mu was estimated to be minimally 4. The probability of carriership for mothers of an isolated haemophilia A patient amounts to 86% with a sex ratio of 5.2. Although this would imply that 14% of the mothers are not carriers of the disease in the classical sense, they may be mosaic for the mutation and, therefore, also at risk of transmitting the mutation more than once.

A hereditary disease with excess mortality such as haemophilia is maintained in the population by the occurrence of new cases, i.e. mutations. In haemophilia, mutations may arise in female or male ancestors of a 'new' patient. The ratio of the mutation frequencies in males over females determines the prior risk of carriership of the mother of an isolated patient. An estimate of this prior risk is required for the application of Bayes' theorem to probability calculations in carriership testing. We have developed a method to estimate the sex ratio of the mutation frequencies; it does not depend on the assumption of genetic equilibrium, nor require an estimate of the reproductive fitness of haemophilia patients and carriers. Information from 462 patients with severe or moderately severe haemophilia A was gathered by postal questionnaires in a survey that included practically all Dutch haemophiliacs. Pedigree analysis was performed for the 189 patients of these 462, who were the first haemophiliacs in their family. By the maximum likelihood method, the ratio of the mutation frequencies in males and females was estimated at 2.1, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.7-6.7. In addition, we performed a meta-analysis of all published studies on the sex ratio of the mutation frequencies. When the results of six studies were pooled, it was estimated that mutations originated 3.1 times as often in males as in females. The 95% confidence interval was 1.9-4.9. This implies that 80% of mothers of an isolated patient are expected to be haemophilia carriers.

Immunohistologic investigation of the sublabial salivary glands of 65 surgical patients who were free of systemic disease (control) and 19 patients with Sjögren's syndrome resulted in a new diagnostic criterion for SS that was more disease-specific than the widely used lymphocytic focus score criterion. Our bivariate classification criterion, which is based on the percentages of IgA- and IgG-containing plasma cells, has a specificity of 95.4% and a sensitivity of 100%, while its overall percentage of misclassification is 3.6%. This immunohistologic diagnostic criterion results in a reduction of the percentage of false-positive diagnoses from 9% to 4.6%.

The sublabial salivary glands were studied by morphometric methods in 68 healthy volunteers to establish possible changes related to age in those tissue components that are affected in Sjögren's syndrome and connective tissue diseases (and which might stimulate Sjögren's syndrome). There was an increase in the amount of connective tissue and intralobular ducts with age and a corresponding decrease in acinar tissue. During the aging process changes in the intralobular ducts occurred: the outer and inner diameters of these ducts and the thickness of the epithelium decreased, but the ratio of the outer and inner diameters of the ducts remained constant. The amount of diffuse lymphoplasmacytic infiltrate and the vascularity of the tissue remains constant with age. In 15 of the subjects, however, discrete lymphocytic foci were seen and in six of these more than one focus/4 mm2 of salivary tissue was found, which has been described as suggestive of Sjögren's syndrome. The volume percentage of lymphocytic foci is constant during the aging process. The histological features commonly used to diagnose Sjögren's syndrome may occur in normal people, and false positive diagnoses will occur if these criteria are rigidly adhered to. Morphometry may provide more reliable criteria for distinguishing changes induced by inflammation and related to age which occur in salivary tissue.

In (nonlinear) regression with heteroscedastic errors, introduction of a variance model can be useful to obtain good estimators of the regression parameter. For example, the variance model can be used to obtain the optimal weights in weighted least squares. Methodology of this kind is often used in the analysis of assay data in clinical chemistry, pharmacokinetics, and toxicology. In a series of papers in the pharmacological literature, Sheiner and Beal and others advocate the extended least squares (ELS) methodology that combines regression and variance model into a single objective function based on normal-theory maximum likelihood. The inadequacy of this method is folklore in the (mathematical) statistical literature. In this article it is pointed out that this methodology may lead to inconsistent estimators in practically relevant situations. A review is given of other methods that may be preferable to ELS.