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The carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater provides valuable insight on ocean circulation, air-sea exchange, the biological pump, and the global carbon cycle and is reflected by the δ13C of foraminifera tests. Here more than 1700 δ13C observations of the benthic foraminifera genus Cibicides from late Holocene sediments (δ13CCibnat) are compiled and compared with newly updated estimates of the natural (preindustrial) water column δ13C of dissolved inorganic carbon (δ13CDICnat) as part of the international Ocean Circulation and Carbon Cycling (OC3) project. Using selection criteria based on the spatial distance between samples, we find high correlation between δ13CCibnat and δ13CDICnat, confirming earlier work. Regression analyses indicate significant carbonate ion (−2.6 ± 0.4) × 10−3‰/(μmol kg−1) [CO32−] and pressure (−4.9 ± 1.7) × 10−5‰ m−1 (depth) effects, which we use to propose a new global calibration for predicting δ13CDICnat from δ13CCibnat. This calibration is shown to remove some systematic regional biases and decrease errors compared with the one-to-one relationship (δ13CDICnat = δ13CCibnat). However, these effects and the error reductions are relatively small, which suggests that most conclusions from previous studies using a one-to-one relationship remain robust. The remaining standard error of the regression is generally σ ≅ 0.25‰, with larger values found in the southeast Atlantic and Antarctic (σ ≅ 0.4‰) and for species other than Cibicides wuellerstorfi. Discussion of species effects and possible sources of the remaining errors may aid future attempts to improve the use of the benthic δ13C record.

Founding populations of the first Americans likely occupied parts of Beringia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The timing, pathways, and modes of their southward transit remain unknown, but blockage of the interior route by North American ice sheets between ~26 and 14 cal kyr BP (ka) favors a coastal route during this period. Using models and paleoceanographic data from the North Pacific, we identify climatically favorable intervals when humans could have plausibly traversed the Cordilleran coastal corridor during the terminal Pleistocene. Model simulations suggest that northward coastal currents strengthened during the LGM and at times of enhanced freshwater input, making southward transit by boat more difficult. Repeated Cordilleran glacial-calving events would have further challenged coastal transit on land and at sea. Following these events, ice-free coastal areas opened and seasonal sea ice was present along the Alaskan margin until at least 15 ka. Given evidence for humans south of the ice sheets by 16 ka and possibly earlier, we posit that early people may have taken advantage of winter sea ice that connected islands and coastal refugia. Marine ice-edge habitats offer a rich food supply and traversing coastal sea ice could have mitigated the difficulty of traveling southward in watercraft or on land over glaciers. We identify 24.5 to 22 ka and 16.4 to 14.8 ka as environmentally favorable time periods for coastal migration, when climate conditions provided both winter sea ice and ice-free summer conditions that facilitated year-round marine resource diversity and multiple modes of mobility along the North Pacific coast.

North Pacific deoxygenation events during the last deglaciation were sustained over millennia by high export productivity, but the triggering mechanisms and their links to deglacial warming remain uncertain 1-3 . Here we find that initial deoxygenation in the North Pacific immediately after the Cordilleran ice sheet (CIS) retreat 4 was associated with increased volcanic ash in seafloor sediments. Timing of volcanic inputs relative to CIS retreat suggests that regional explosive volcanism was initiated by ice unloading 5,6 . We posit that iron fertilization by volcanic ash 7-9 during CIS retreat fuelled ocean productivity in this otherwise iron-limited region, and tipped the marine system towards sustained deoxygenation. We also identify older deoxygenation events linked to CIS retreat over the past approximately 50,000 years (ref.  4 ). Our findings suggest that the apparent coupling between the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and solid-Earth systems occurs on relatively short timescales and can act as an important driver for ocean biogeochemical change., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

During the last deglaciation, dozens of glacial outburst floods-among the largest known floods on Earth-scoured the Channeled Scabland landscape of eastern Washington. Over this same period, deformation of the Earth's crust in response to the growth and decay of ice sheets changed the topography by hundreds of meters. Here, we investigated whether glacial isostatic adjustment affected routing of the Missoula floods and incision of the Channeled Scabland from an impounded, glacial Lake Columbia. We used modern topography corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment as an input to flood models that solved the depth-averaged, shallow water equations and compared the results to erosion constraints. Results showed that floods could have traversed and eroded parts of two major tracts of the Channeled Scabland-Telford-Crab Creek and Cheney-Palouse-near 18 ka, whereas glacial isostatic adjustment limited flow into the Cheney-Palouse tract at 15.5 ka. Partitioning of flow between tracts was governed by tilting of the landscape, which affected the filling and overspill of glacial Lake Columbia directly upstream of the tracts. These results highlight the impact of glacial isostatic adjustment on megaflood routing and landscape evolution., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2022 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

The uncertain response of marine terminating outlet glaciers to climate change at time scales beyond short-term observation limits models of future sea level rise. At temperate tidewater margins, abundant subglacial meltwater forms morainal banks (marine shoals) or ice-contact deltas that reduce water depth, stabilizing grounding lines and slowing or reversing glacial retreat. Here we present a radiocarbon-dated record from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1421 that tracks the terminus of the largest Alaskan Cordilleran Ice Sheet outlet glacier during Last Glacial Maximum climate transitions. Sedimentation rates, ice-rafted debris, and microfossil and biogeochemical proxies, show repeated abrupt collapses and slow advances typical of the tidewater glacier cycle observed in modern systems. When global sea level rise exceeded the local rate of bank building, the cycle of readvances stopped leading to irreversible retreat. These results support theory that suggests sediment dynamics can control tidewater terminus position on an open shelf under temperate conditions delaying climate-driven retreat.

During the Last Glacial Maximum, expansive continental ice sheets lowered globally averaged sea level ~130 m, exposing a land bridge at the Bering Strait. During the subsequent deglaciation, sea level rose rapidly and ultimately flooded the Bering Strait, linking the Arctic and Pacific Oceans. Observational records of the Bering Strait flooding have suggested two apparently contradictory scenarios for the timing of the reconnection. We reconcile these enigmatic datasets using gravitationally self-consistent sea-level simulations that vary the timing and geometry of ice retreat between the Laurentide and Cordilleran Ice Sheets to the southwest of the Bering Strait to fit observations of a two-phased flooding history. Assuming the datasets are robust, we demonstrate that their reconciliation requires a substantial melting of the Cordilleran and western Laurentide Ice Sheet from 13,000 to 11,500 years ago. This timing provides a freshwater source for the widely debated Younger Dryas cold episode (12,900 to 11,700 years ago)., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).)

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).)

An understanding of the mechanisms that control CO2 change during glacial-interglacial cycles remains elusive. Here we help to constrain changing sources with a high-precision, high-resolution deglacial record of the stable isotopic composition of carbon in CO2(δ(13)C-CO2) in air extracted from ice samples from Taylor Glacier, Antarctica. During the initial rise in atmospheric CO2 from 17.6 to 15.5 ka, these data demarcate a decrease in δ(13)C-CO2, likely due to a weakened oceanic biological pump. From 15.5 to 11.5 ka, the continued atmospheric CO2 rise of 40 ppm is associated with small changes in δ(13)C-CO2, consistent with a nearly equal contribution from a further weakening of the biological pump and rising ocean temperature. These two trends, related to marine sources, are punctuated at 16.3 and 12.9 ka with abrupt, century-scale perturbations in δ(13)C-CO2 that suggest rapid oxidation of organic land carbon or enhanced air-sea gas exchange in the Southern Ocean. Additional century-scale increases in atmospheric CO2 coincident with increases in atmospheric CH4 and Northern Hemisphere temperature at the onset of the Bølling (14.6-14.3 ka) and Holocene (11.6-11.4 ka) intervals are associated with small changes in δ(13)C-CO2, suggesting a combination of sources that included rising surface ocean temperature.

Erosion, sediment production, and routing on a tectonically active continental margin reflect both tectonic and climatic processes; partitioning the relative importance of these processes remains controversial. Gulf of Alaska contains a preserved sedimentary record of the Yakutat Terrane collision with North America. Because tectonic convergence in the coastal St. Elias orogen has been roughly constant for 6 My, variations in its eroded sediments preserved in the offshore Surveyor Fan constrain a budget of tectonic material influx, erosion, and sediment output. Seismically imaged sediment volumes calibrated with chronologies derived from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program boreholes show that erosion accelerated in response to Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification (∼ 2.7 Ma) and that the 900-km-long Surveyor Channel inception appears to correlate with this event. However, tectonic influx exceeded integrated sediment efflux over the interval 2.8-1.2 Ma. Volumetric erosion accelerated following the onset of quasi-periodic (∼ 100-ky) glacial cycles in the mid-Pleistocene climate transition (1.2-0.7 Ma). Since then, erosion and transport of material out of the orogen has outpaced tectonic influx by 50-80%. Such a rapid net mass loss explains apparent increases in exhumation rates inferred onshore from exposure dates and mapped out-of-sequence fault patterns. The 1.2-My mass budget imbalance must relax back toward equilibrium in balance with tectonic influx over the timescale of orogenic wedge response (millions of years). The St. Elias Range provides a key example of how active orogenic systems respond to transient mass fluxes, and of the possible influence of climate-driven erosive processes that diverge from equilibrium on the million-year scale.

Marine sediments from the North Pacific document two episodes of expansion and strengthening of the subsurface oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) accompanied by seafloor hypoxia during the last deglacial transition. The mechanisms driving this hypoxia remain under debate. We present a new high-resolution alkenone palaeotemperature reconstruction from the Gulf of Alaska that reveals two abrupt warming events of 4-5 degrees Celsius at the onset of the Bølling and Holocene intervals that coincide with sudden shifts to hypoxia at intermediate depths. The presence of diatomaceous laminations and hypoxia-tolerant benthic foraminiferal species, peaks in redox-sensitive trace metals, and enhanced (15)N/(14)N ratio of organic matter, collectively suggest association with high export production. A decrease in (18)O/(16)O values of benthic foraminifera accompanying the most severe deoxygenation event indicates subsurface warming of up to about 2 degrees Celsius. We infer that abrupt warming triggered expansion of the North Pacific OMZ through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity via physiological effects; following initiation of hypoxia, remobilization of iron from hypoxic sediments could have provided a positive feedback on ocean deoxygenation through increased nutrient utilization and carbon export. Such a biogeochemical amplification process implies high sensitivity of OMZ expansion to warming.

Understanding responses of oceanic primary productivity, carbon export, and burial to climate change is essential for model-based projection of biological feedbacks in a high-CO2 world. Here we compare estimates of productivity based on the composition of fossil diatom floras with organic carbon burial off Oregon in the Northeast Pacific across a large climatic transition at the last glacial termination. Although estimated primary productivity was highest during the Last Glacial Maximum, carbon burial was lowest, reflecting reduced preservation linked to low sedimentation rates. A diatom size index further points to a glacial decrease (and deglacial increase) in the fraction of fixed carbon that was exported, inferred to reflect expansion, and contraction, of subpolar ecosystems that today favor smaller plankton. Thus, in contrast to models that link remineralization of carbon to temperature, in the Northeast Pacific, we find dominant ecosystem and sea floor control such that intervals of warming climate had more efficient carbon export and higher carbon burial despite falling primary productivity.

Deciphering the evolution of global climate from the end of the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 19 ka to the early Holocene 11 ka presents an outstanding opportunity for understanding the transient response of Earth's climate system to external and internal forcings. During this interval of global warming, the decay of ice sheets caused global mean sea level to rise by approximately 80 m; terrestrial and marine ecosystems experienced large disturbances and range shifts; perturbations to the carbon cycle resulted in a net release of the greenhouse gases CO(2) and CH(4) to the atmosphere; and changes in atmosphere and ocean circulation affected the global distribution and fluxes of water and heat. Here we summarize a major effort by the paleoclimate research community to characterize these changes through the development of well-dated, high-resolution records of the deep and intermediate ocean as well as surface climate. Our synthesis indicates that the superposition of two modes explains much of the variability in regional and global climate during the last deglaciation, with a strong association between the first mode and variations in greenhouse gases, and between the second mode and variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Water resources in western North America depend on winter precipitation, yet our knowledge of its sensitivity to climate change remains limited. Similarly, understanding the potential for future loss of winter snow pack requires a longer perspective on natural climate variability. Here we use stable isotopes from a speleothem in southwestern Oregon to reconstruct winter climate change for much of the past 13,000 years. We find that on millennial time scales there were abrupt transitions between warm-dry and cold-wet regimes. Temperature and precipitation changes on multi-decadal to century timescales are consistent with ocean-atmosphere interactions that arise from mechanisms similar to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Extreme cold-wet and warm-dry events that punctuated the Holocene appear to be sensitive to solar forcing, possibly through the influence of the equatorial Pacific on the winter storm tracks reaching the US Pacific Northwest region.

Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.

Patterns in the isotopic signal (stable C isotope composition; delta(13)C) of respiration (delta(13)C(R)) have led to important gains in understanding the C metabolism of many systems. Contained within delta(13)C(R) is a record of the C source mineralized, the metabolic pathway of C and the environmental conditions during which respiration occurred. Because gas samples used for analysis of delta(13)C(R) contain a mixture of CO(2) from respiration and from the atmosphere, two-component mixing models are used to identify delta(13)C(R). Measurement of ecosystem delta(13)C(R), using canopy airspace gas samples, was one of the first applications of mixing models in ecosystem ecology, and thus recommendations and guidelines are based primarily on findings from these studies. However, as mixing models are applied to other experimental conditions these approaches may not be appropriate. For example, the range in [CO(2)] obtained in gas samples from canopy air is generally less than 100 micromol mol(-1), whereas in studies of respiration from soil, foliage or tree stems, the range can span as much as 10,000 micromol mol(-1) and greater. Does this larger range in [CO(2)] influence the precision and accuracy of delta(13)C(R) estimates derived from mixing models? Does the outcome from using different regression approaches and mixing models vary depending on the range of [CO(2)]? Our research addressed these questions using a simulation approach. We found that it is important to distinguish between large (>1,000 micromol mol(-1)) and small (<100 micromol mol(-1)) ranges of CO(2) when applying a mixing model (Keeling plot or Miller-Tans) and regression approach (ordinary least squares or geometric mean regression) combination to isotopic data. The combination of geometric mean regression and the Miller-Tans mixing model provided the most accurate and precise estimate of delta(13)C(R) when the range of CO(2) is >or=1,000 micromol mol(-1).

In 2005 and 2006, air samples were collected at the base of a Douglas-fir watershed to monitor seasonal changes in the delta13CO2 of ecosystem respiration (delta13C(ER)). The goals of this study were to determine whether variations in delta13C(ER) correlated with environmental variables and could be used to predict expected variations in canopy-average stomatal conductance (Gs). Changes in delta13C(ER) correlated weakly with changes in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) measured 0 and 3-7 days earlier and significantly with soil matric potential (psi(m)) (P value <0.02) measured on the same day. Midday G (s) was estimated using sapflow measurements (heat-dissipation method) at four plots located at different elevations within the watershed. Values of midday Gs from 0 and 3-7 days earlier were correlated with delta13C(ER), with the 5-day lag being significant (P value <0.05). To examine direct relationships between delta13C(ER) and recent Gs, we used models relating isotope discrimination to stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity at the leaf level to estimate values of stomatal conductance ("Gs-I") that would be expected if respired CO2 were derived entirely from recent photosynthate. We compared these values with estimates of Gs using direct measurement of transpiration at multiple locations in the watershed. Considering that the approach based on isotopes considers only the effect of photosynthetic discrimination on delta13C(ER), the magnitude and range in the two values were surprisingly similar. We conclude that: (1) delta13C(ER) is sensitive to variations in weather, and (2) delta13C(ER) potentially could be used to directly monitor average, basin-wide variations in Gs in complex terrain if further research improves understanding of how delta13C(ER) is influenced by post-assimilation fractionation processes.

This paper presents initial investigations of a new approach to monitor ecosystem processes in complex terrain on large scales. Metabolic processes in mountainous ecosystems are poorly represented in current ecosystem monitoring campaigns because the methods used for monitoring metabolism at the ecosystem scale (e.g., eddy covariance) require flat study sites. Our goal was to investigate the potential for using nocturnal down-valley winds (cold air drainage) for monitoring ecosystem processes in mountainous terrain from two perspectives: measurements of the isotopic composition of ecosystem-respired CO2 (delta13C(ER)) and estimates of fluxes of CO2 transported in the drainage flow. To test if this approach is plausible, we monitored the wind patterns, CO2 concentrations, and the carbon isotopic composition of the air as it exited the base of a young (approximately 40 yr-old) and an old (>450 yr-old) steeply sided Douglas-fir watershed. Nocturnal cold air drainage within these watersheds was strong, deep, and occurred on more than 80% of summer nights. The depth of cold air drainage rapidly increased to tower height or greater when the net radiation at the top of the tower approached zero. The carbon isotope composition of CO2 in the drainage system holds promise as an indicator of variation in basin-scale physiological processes. Although there was little vertical variation in CO2 concentration at any point in time, we found that the range of CO2 concentration over a single evening was sufficient to estimate delta 13C(ER) from Keeling plot analyses. The seasonal variation in delta 13C(ER) followed expected trends: during the summer dry season delta 13C(ER) became less negative (more enriched in 13C), but once rain returned in the fall, delta 13C(ER) decreased. However, we found no correlation between recent weather (e.g., vapor pressure deficit) and delta 13C(ER) either concurrently or with up to a one-week lag. Preliminary estimates suggest that the nocturnal CO2 flux advecting past the 28-m tower is a rather small fraction (<20%) of the watershed-scale respiration. This study demonstrates that monitoring the isotopic composition and CO2 concentration of cold air drainage at the base of a watershed provides a new tool for quantifying ecosystem metabolism in mountainous ecosystems on the basin scale.

Surface ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could hold the clue to whether millennial-scale global climate change during glacial times was initiated through tropical ocean-atmosphere feedbacks or by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. North Atlantic cold periods during Heinrich events and millennial-scale cold events (stadials) have been linked with climatic changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and South America, as well as the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems, but not with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Here we present a high-resolution record of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific derived from alkenone unsaturation measurements. Our data show a temperature drop of approximately 1 degrees C, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich event 1, and a smaller temperature drop of approximately 0.5 degrees C synchronous with the smaller reduction in the overturning circulation during the Younger Dryas event. Both cold events coincide with maxima in surface ocean productivity as inferred from 230Th-normalized carbon burial fluxes, suggesting increased upwelling at the time. From the concurrence of equatorial Pacific cooling with the two North Atlantic cold periods during deglaciation, we conclude that these millennial-scale climate changes were probably driven by a reorganization of the oceans' thermohaline circulation, although possibly amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction as suggested before.

Evidence from the Irish Sea basin supports the existence of an abrupt rise in sea level (meltwater pulse) at 19,000 years before the present (B.P.). Climate records indicate a large reduction in the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and attendant cooling of the North Atlantic at this time, indicating a source of the meltwater pulse from one or more Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Warming of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the Southern Hemisphere also began at 19,000 years B.P. These responses identify mechanisms responsible for the propagation of deglacial climate signals to the Southern Hemisphere and tropics while maintaining a cold climate in the Northern Hemisphere.

Late Pleistocene changes in oceanic primary productivity along the equator in the Indian and Pacific oceans are revealed by quantitative changes in nanoplankton communities preserved in nine deep-sea cores. We show that variations in equatorial productivity are primarily caused by glacial-interglacial variability and by precession-controlled changes in the east-west thermocline slope of the Indo-Pacific. The precession-controlled variations in productivity are linked to processes similar to the Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and they precede changes in the oxygen isotopic ratio, which indicates that they are not the result of ice sheet fluctuations. The 30,000-year spectral peak in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean productivity records is also present in the Antarctica atmospheric CO2 record, suggesting an important role for equatorial biological productivity in modifying atmospheric CO2.