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In the EU, COVID-19 and associated policy responses led to economy-wide disruptions and shifts in services demand, with considerable energy-system implications. The European Commission's response paved the way towards enhancing climate ambition through the European Green Deal. Understanding the interactions among environmental, social, and economic dimensions in climate action post-COVID thus emerged as a key challenge. This study disaggregates the implications of climate ambition, speed of economic recovery from COVID-19, and behavioural changes due to pandemic-related measures and/or environmental concerns for EU transition dynamics, over the next decade. It soft-links two large-scale energy-economy models, EU-TIMES and NEMESIS, to shed light on opportunities and challenges related to delivering on the EU's 2030 climate targets. Results indicate that half the effort required to reach the updated 55% emissions reduction target should come from electricity decarbonisation, followed by transport. Alongside a post-COVID return to normal, the European Green Deal may lead to increased carbon prices and fossil-fuel rebounds, but these risks may be mitigated by certain behavioural changes, gains from which in transport energy use would outweigh associated consumption increases in the residential sector. Finally, the EU recovery mechanism could deliver about half the required investments needed to deliver on the 2030 ambition.

With the EU policy context fast evolving in the light of recent challenges, such as COVID-19, there is a need to guide and scientifically underpin key policymaking decisions to ensure that ambitious targets are realised. In this context, this deliverable presents a set of EU scenarios that achieve the 55% emission reduction target by 2030 and net zero by 2050, on top of a realistic current policies baseline, essentially ensuring that EU effectively manages its contribution towards achieving the Paris Agreement target. Produced by a diverse set of models in a multi-model setup, the scenarios are assessed in terms of their implications on key climate, economy, and energy indicators, as well as their impact on the member-state and sectoral level. Key results including the role of key mitigation options su h as renewables, electrification, carbon capture and storage, negative emissions technologies, and hydrogen are validated from the l ns of stakeholder input, as elicited in a series of national stakeholder workshops in Europe. Finally, the analysis further delves into niche modelling areas, including updates on the current policies baseline scenario in the light of COVID-19 and the “Fit for 55” package, long term strategies for the Agriculture Forestry and Land-Use sector, and the evaluation of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

The present report describes two main upgrades that have been made to the JRC-EU-TIMES model during the year 2017: • An improvement of the description of residential and non-residential buildings • An update of data and a new representation for heating &cooling and heat distribution technologies The model updates have been validated through tests with the JRC-EU-TIMES model and with stylised models allowing isolating the observed effect of the changed model input. The updates performed greatly improve the ability of the JRC-EU-TIMES model to perform studies options for the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector., JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Union

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Ireland faces very challenging short-term targets in the period to 2020 arising from EU obligations that are specified in EU Directives and Decisions. In addition to these short-term targets, the EU has committed to a long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction of 80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050, and will require Member States to participate in effort-sharing to deliver deep emissions cuts. Policy-makers require comprehensive, robust, knowledge-based information to inform their decisions on how to meet these targets in a manner that will most benefit the Irish economy. This project draws on and contributes to the wealth of international energy-systems modelling research activity. It involved building, developing, calibrating, testing and running a (partial equilibrium) energysystems optimisation model for Ireland – the Irish TIMES model. The model was developed by University College Cork in collaboration with the Economic and Social Research Institute, E4SMA and KanORS over the period March 2009–November 2011. The real value of the Irish TIMES model is in the new insights it gives into some of the key challenges and decisions facing Ireland in energy and climate policy. The Irish TIMES model provides a means of assessing the implications of alternative future energy system pathways for: (i) the Irish economy (technology choices, prices, output, etc.), (ii) Ireland’s energy mix and energy dependence, and (iii) the environment. It is used in this project to assess the implications of emerging technologies and of mobilising alternative policy choices, such as meeting renewable energy targets and carbonmitigation strategies. The two key new perspectives this research project gives are: (i) a full energy-systems modelling approach and (ii) a focus on the medium term (to 2050) as well as the short term (to 2020). The scenario results respond directly to a number of key policy questions that could not be readily addressed before this model was developed. These relate to Ireland’s targets for: (i) renewable energy to 2020, (ii) GHG reduction to 2020 and (iii) long-term GHG emissions reduction to 2050. The results point to: 1 Alternative pathways for renewable energy to that currently being followed under Ireland’s National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP); 2 The need to urgently reassess Ireland’s renewable energy policies in light of the non-ETS emissions reduction target; 3 A particular focus on renewable heat, renewable transport and electrification of heat, in contrast to the current dominant focus on wind-generated electricity; 4 The impacts of imposing a higher emissions reduction target on Ireland’s energy system to compensate for limited mitigation options in agriculture; 5 The significant challenges in moving to a lowcarbon economy in 2050 with renewable energy accounting for 65–85% of energy supply (compared with 6.5% in 2011); 6 Electrification of heat in particular but also of transport, resulting in the share of energy use delivered by electricity increasing from 18% currently to 31–47% of energy use in 2050.

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in. Key policy insightsEconomic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy. Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system. The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors. Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization. Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in. Key policy insightsEconomic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy. Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system. The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors. Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization. Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

This study investigates longitudinal changes in health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in early-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) patients and explores the impact of disease activity (relapses) on such changes. People with MS (PwMS) onset between 12 and 25 years of age were followed longitudinally. At baseline and at year 4, patients were asked to fill the Paediatric Quality of life inventory (PedsQL). Demographic and clinical features were collected at both time points. Longitudinal within-group comparison of HRQoL total score and sub-scores was performed via paired samples t-test. The effect of relapses on the HRQoL changes over time was explored via linear mixed-effects analysis. No longitudinal changes were observed in the overall PedsQL score, nor in the physical, school and psychological functioning. An increase in the social functioning subscale (p < 0.001) and a decrease in the emotional subscale (p = 0.006) were observed. The change in social functioning, but not the one in the emotional subscale, was affected by the occurrence of relapses (p = 0.044). In conclusion, stimulating the patients to accept their emotional responses to health-related limitations, while preserving their social and relational resources seems key to the preservation of an adequate QoL over time in juvenile-onset MS.

Despite being a common issue in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS), sexual dysfunction is still underinvestigated. This work aims to assess the potential determinants of sexual dysfunction in pwMS by considering its relationship with disease severity (in terms of global disability), illness perception, and depressive symptoms. In this multicenter study, 1010 pwMS responded to an online survey. A serial mediation model considering negative illness perception and depressive symptoms as mediators of the relationship between disease severity and sexual dysfunction was conducted using the SPSS PROCESS Macro with bias-corrected bootstrapping (5000 samples). Disease severity exerts an indirect effect on sexual dysfunction via illness perception, both independently and through depressive symptoms. However, the results indicated that illness perception plays a more crucial role in sexual dysfunction in pwMS with mild disability than in pwMS with moderate-severe disability. This study suggests that higher disability increases its magnitude by enhancing negative illness perception, that, in turn, affects sexual dysfunction both directly and through depressive symptoms, especially in pwMS with mild disability. Modulating the effect of illness perception by favoring adaptive coping strategies might represent a valid approach to mitigate sexual dysfunction symptoms in MS.

The current study aimed at exploring the relationship between objective disability, illness perceptions, resilience, fear of COVID-19, and psychological distress (i.e., anxiety, depression, and stress) in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) during the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. A group of 122 pwMS recruited in an Italian university hospital took part in this cross-sectional monocentric study. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the strength of the hypothesized associations. Results indicated that, differently from cognitive impairment, motor disability was positively associated with anxiety. However, accounting for subjective illness perception, such association was no longer significant. Moreover, accounting for both protective and risk factors in the models, even illness perception was no longer significant, highlighting the central role of resilience and fear of COVID-19 in explaining the negative emotional outcomes. Implications for clinical interventions and psychoeducational trainings are discussed.

Physical disability impacts psychosocial wellbeing in people with multiple sclerosis. However, the role of physical activity in this context is still debated. By taking advantage of a previous survey, conducted online from 22 April to 7 May 2020, we performed a post-hoc analysis with the aim to assess the associations between disability, physical exercise, and mental health in multiple sclerosis. We retrieved the following data: (i) sociodemographic information, (ii) changes in lifestyle (including exercise), (iii) physical disability, as measured with the Patient-Determined Disease Steps scale, and (iv) anxiety feelings and depressive symptoms assessed via the items included in the Quality of Life in Neurological Disorders measurement system. Examination of the interaction plot showed that the effect of disability on depression, but not on anxious symptoms, was significant for all levels of physical exercise (low: b = 1.22, 95% C.I. 0.85, 1.58, p &lt, 0.001, moderate: b = 0.95, 95% C.I. 0.66, 1.24, p &lt, and high: b = 0.68, 95% C.I. 0.24, 1.13, p = 0.003). Based on these data, we can conclude that disability significantly impacted depression during the COVID-19 pandemic, with physical activity playing a moderating role. Our results suggest that favoring exercise in multiple sclerosis (MS) would ameliorate psychological wellbeing regardless of the level of physical disability.

The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been extremely stressful and has produced fear and anxiety throughout the population, representing a psychological emergency. This work aimed at presenting a mental health first aid service established within an Italian university public hospital context to address four different population targets (i.e., people vulnerable to mental health problems, health-care professionals, people in isolation, and general citizenship). Specifically, the organizational structure comprising four different areas (i.e., management, clinical, communication, and research) and first data collected from the foundation of the service until 3 May 2020 are presented. Findings indicated that anxiety and fear of contagion were the main motivations prompting both the general population and health-care professionals to ask for a psychological help. Furthermore, findings indicate that clients’ current quality of life was perceived as lower than in the past but also that imagined in the future, highlighting the importance of psychological first aid interventions. This service may represent an example for helping mental health professionals in developing similar services in their local realities, promoting health and individual and community resilience.