Global pathways & EU response: A 2nd European Regional, National and Sectoral assessment

With the EU policy context fast evolving in the light of recent challenges, such as COVID-19, there is a need to guide and scientifically underpin key policymaking decisions to ensure that ambitious targets are realised. In this context, this deliverable presents a set of EU scenarios that achieve the 55% emission reduction target by 2030 and net zero by 2050, on top of a realistic current policies baseline, essentially ensuring that EU effectively manages its contribution towards achieving the Paris Agreement target. Produced by a diverse set of models in a multi-model setup, the scenarios are assessed in terms of their implications on key climate, economy, and energy indicators, as well as their impact on the member-state and sectoral level. Key results including the role of key mitigation options su h as renewables, electrification, carbon capture and storage, negative emissions technologies, and hydrogen are validated from the l ns of stakeholder input, as elicited in a series of national stakeholder workshops in Europe. Finally, the analysis further delves into niche modelling areas, including updates on the current policies baseline scenario in the light of COVID-19 and the “Fit for 55” package, long term strategies for the Agriculture Forestry and Land-Use sector, and the evaluation of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.