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In the context of early disease detection, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a vital tool. Feature selection (FS) algorithms play a crucial role in ensuring the accuracy of predictive models by identifying the most influential variables. This study, focusing on a retrospective cohort of 4778 COVID-19 patients from Iran, explores the performance of various FS methods, including filter, embedded, and hybrid approaches, in predicting mortality outcomes. The researchers leveraged 115 routine clinical, laboratory, and demographic features and employed 13 ML models to assess the effectiveness of these FS methods based on classification accuracy, predictive accuracy, and statistical tests. The results indicate that a Hybrid Boruta-VI model combined with the Random Forest algorithm demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.89, an F1 score of 0.76, and an AUC value of 0.95 on test data. Key variables identified as important predictors of adverse outcomes include age, oxygen saturation levels, albumin levels, neutrophil counts, platelet levels, and markers of kidney function. These findings highlight the potential of advanced FS techniques and ML models in enhancing early disease detection and informing clinical decision-making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effectiveness of various quantile regression (QR) and machine learning (ML) methodologies developed for analyzing the relationship between meteorological parameters and daily reference evapotranspiration (ETref) across diverse climates in Iran spanning from 1987 to 2022. The analyzed models include D-vine copula-based quantile regression (DVQR), multivariate linear quantile regression (MLQR), Bayesian model averaging quantile regression (BMAQR), as well as machine learning algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), random forest (RF), M5 model Tree (M5Tree), least squares support vector regression algorithm (LSSVR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Additionally, empirical equations (EEs) such as Baier and Robertson (BARO), Jensen and Haise (JEHA), and Penman (PENM) models were considered. While the EEs demonstrated acceptable performance, the QR and ML models exhibited superior accuracy. Among these, the MLQR model displayed the highest accuracy compared to DVQR and BMAQR models. Moreover, LSSVR, XGBoost, and M5Tree models outperformed ELM and RF models. Notably, LSSVR, XGBoost, and MLQR models exhibited comparable performance (R2 and NSE > 0.92, MBE and RMSE < 0.5, and SI > 0.05) to M5Tree and BMAQR models across all climates. Importantly, these models significantly outperformed EEs, DVQR, ELM, and RF models in all climates. In conclusion, high-dimensional QR and ML models are recommended as promising alternatives for accurately estimating daily ETref in diverse global climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gully erosion poses a threat to the sustainability of cultivated regions worldwide, is environmentally problematic, and causes significant rates of soil erosion. Understanding the formation process and gully development requires mapping gully erosion. An innovative modeling approach was used in this work using a case study in northern Iran. 14 gully-erosion parameter measurements from 1042 gully erosion locations were combined to produce a geographic dataset. For the purposes of modeling and validation, four training data sets (each in the standard 70:30 ratio) that represented 100 %, 75 %, 50 %, and 25 % of the total database were employed. The four machine learning models that were used to assess the utility of the four training situations were Bloom Filter Trees, Random Forest, (RF), Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR), and ensemble of KLR-RF. The most important effective factors, as determined by the RF research, were distance from the stream (72.61), vertical distance of the channel network (49.34), distance from the road (48.81), and elevation (47.68). The findings were validated using the receiver operating characteristic. Based on our findings, the combination of KLR and RF is the most optimum combination for both improved accuracy (0.928) and predictive capability (0.911). Out of them, the KLR-RF 50 % training scenario is the most optimal when compared to the other scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate spatiotemporal monitoring and modeling of soil moisture (SM) is of paramount importance for various applications ranging from food production to climate change adaptation. This study deals with modeling SM with the random forest (RF) algorithm using datasets comprising multispectral data from Sentinel-2, Landsat-8/9, and hyperspectral data from the CoSpectroCam sensor (CSC, licensed to AgriWatch BV, Enschede, The Netherlands) mounted on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in Iran. The model included nine bands from Landsat-8/9, 11 bands from Sentinel-2, and 1252 bands from the CSC (covering the wavelength range between 420 and 850 nm). The relative feature importance and band sensitivity to SM variations were analyzed. In addition, four indices, including the perpendicular index (PI), ratio index (RI), difference index (DI), and normalized difference index (NDI) were calculated from the different bands of the datasets, and their sensitivity to SM was evaluated. The results showed that the PI exhibited the highest sensitivity to SM changes in all datasets among the four indices considered. Comparisons of the performance of the datasets in SM estimation emphasized the superior performance of the UAV hyperspectral data (R2 = 0.87), while the Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8/9 data showed lower accuracy (R2 = 0.49 and 0.66, respectively). The robust performance of the CSC data is likely due to its superior spatial and spectral resolution as well as the application of preprocessing techniques such as noise reduction and smoothing filters. The lower accuracy of the multispectral data from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8/9 can also be attributed to their relatively coarse spatial resolution compared to the CSC, which leads to pixel non-uniformities and impurities. Therefore, employing the CSC on a UAV proves to be a valuable technology, providing an effective link between satellite observations and ground measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses the class imbalance problem in urban gain modelling (UGM) of Tabriz and Isfahan megacities in Iran by proposing novel cost-sensitive machine learning models, namely costsensitive support vector machine (CSVM), random forest (CRF) and artificial neural network (CANN). Random sampling, a frequently utilized method, fails to effectively tackle this issue by biasing models towards no change samples, which outnumber change samples. The results showed that CRF exhibited the highest accuracy (AUC = 0.560), followed by CANN (AUC = 0.557) and CSVM (AUC = 0.448) in Isfahan. In Tabriz, CRF (AUC = 0.809) and CANN (AUC = 0.818) excelled, outperforming balanced sampling models constructed with ANN, RF and SVM with the AUROC of ANN and RF boosted by 15% and 2% in validation. By emphasizing the significance of addressing class imbalance appropriately, this research highlights the improvement in modelling outcomes achievable through the cost-sensitive models especially in Tabriz case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree decline is a highly complex process and is inherently a function of manifold climatic, physiologic, and anthropogenic factors. Monitoring decline processes and their underlying dynamics primarily entails identifying their location and intensity across different ecosystems, for which airborne and satellite remote sensing approaches offer cost-effective and spatially explicit alternatives to field methods. Consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can barely be used as standalone means for large-area monitoring due to their constrains in spatial and spectral domains. However, they could effectively be integrated alongside satellite data to unlock their information for subsequent upscaling on landscape level. We designed a novel two-step workflow to describe the severity of tree decline by linking UAV-RGB information to space-borne multispectral and digital elevation model (DEM) data over 15 forest sites dominated by Persian oak across the latitudinal gradient of Zagros Forests in western Iran. We display how to 1) leverage UAV as reference data across multiple structurally different Persian oak-dominated sites in semi-arid Zagros mountains of Iran; 2) link UAV, Copernicus DEM, and Sentinel-2 data to retrieve decline information within a model-driven context; and 3) analyze the sensitivity of models by means of a global variance-based sensitivity analysis. Results suggested a high association between UAV and field data on the intensity of decline, which enabled using sampled UAV data as reference to estimate the decline severity using space-borne data by means of semi-parametric generalized additive model (GAM) and non-parametric random forest (RF) approaches. Conclusively, this study provided a baseline for multi-scale analysis of tree decline using budget and partially free data sources, which can be of high scientific and practical assets for monitoring in remote, sparse, mountainous, and continuously degrading forest areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) is a specific strategy for combating deforestation and forest degradation to alleviate the effects of climate change. In this study, the potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction resulting from the implementation of a REDD project is estimated. Changes in forest cover throughout the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2015, and 2020 were analyzed using time-series Landsat imagery (TM, ETM + , and OLI) and a random forest algorithm. Multilayer perceptron neural networks were used to model the transition potential of the forest cover, which were then predicted via Markov chain analysis. The change detection analysis revealed two discernible patterns in forest cover dynamics. Between 1985 and 2000, a notable decrease in forest cover was seen, whereas from 2000 to 2020, it significantly increased. The results suggested that the absence of REDD implementation would result in the deforestation of approximately 199,569 hectares of forest cover between 2020 and 2050, leading to the release of 1,995,695 tCO2e of emissions into the atmosphere. However, with the implementation of REDD, these emissions would be reduced to 405,512 tCO2e, effectively preventing the release of 1,590,183 tCO2e of emissions into the upper atmosphere. This study demonstrates that the implementation of REDD projects can be an effective strategy for reducing GHG emissions and mitigating climate change in the Hyrcanian forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: An abnormal variation in blood electrolytes, such as potassium, contributes to mortality in children admitted to intensive care units. Continuous and real-time monitoring of potassium serum levels can prevent fatal arrhythmias, but this is not currently practical. The study aims to use machine learning to estimate blood potassium levels with accuracy in real time noninvasively. Methods: Hospitalized patients in the Pediatric Department of the Rajaie Cardiology and Medical Research Center and Tehran Heart Center were recruited from December 2021 to June 2022. The electrocardiographic (ECG) features of patients were evaluated. We defined 16 features for each signal and extracted them automatically. The dimension reduction operation was performed with the assistance of the correlation matrix. Linear regression, polynomials, decision trees, random forests, and support vector machine algorithms have been used to find the relationship between characteristics and serum potassium levels. Finally, we used a scatter plot and mean square error (MSE) to display the results. Results: Of 463 patients (mean age: 8 ± 1 year; 56% boys) hospitalized, 428 patients met the inclusion criteria, with 35 patients having a high noise of ECG were excluded. After the dimension reduction step, 11 features were selected from each cardiac signal. The random forest regression algorithm showed the best performance with an MSE of 0.3. Conclusion: The accurate estimation of serum potassium levels based on ECG signals is possible using machine learning algorithms. This can be potentially useful in predicting serum potassium levels in specific clinical scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are a prevalent geologic phenomenon that substantially threatens human life and infrastructure, resulting in considerable loss and destruction. The practice of landslide susceptibility mapping is crucial for the mitigation of risks connected with this natural disaster. This work aims at investigating the influence of varying sample sizes on the precision of landslide susceptibility modelling using a case study conducted in the Alamout basin, Iran. The researchers used a machine learning methodology based on tree algorithms to construct a model for predicting the likelihood of landslides. Additionally, they adopted a multi‐scenario strategy to address the inherent uncertainty associated with the input data. The integration of the naive Bayes tree (NBTree), random forest (RF), logistic model tree (LMT) and J48 algorithms was performed. The modelling process included using 20 predictive parameters across four distinct scenarios. Four models, labelled S1, S2, S3 and S4, were used in this study. These models utilized 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% of the available inventory data. The research presented in this study is distinguished by using a tree‐based methodology for landslide susceptibility modelling and incorporating a multi‐scenario strategy to address the inherent uncertainty associated with the input data. The findings indicated that the augmentation of the sample size improved the precision of the models. The efficacy of using a multi‐scenario strategy in enhancing the dependability of the model is also underscored. Among the 20 input elements used in the modelling process, it was seen that slope angle accounted for the highest relative significance, constituting 25.60% of the overall influence. Following more closely, distance to fault contributed significantly, with a relative importance of 23.40%. Additionally, rainfall and elevation exhibited notable contributions, with relative volumes of 7.91% and 5.50%, respectively. All four landslide models showed adequate learning and forecasting ability throughout the training and testing phases. During the testing phase, the true skill score (TSS) values exhibited a range of 0.631–0.804, while the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values showed a range of 0.745–0.921. The susceptibility maps indicated that a significant portion of the region exhibits moderate to very high susceptibility zones, with the northern and eastern sectors displaying greater landslide values than the western region. The model's performance showed improvement from S1 to S4 in both the training and testing phases. The performance of the models exhibited the following trend: in scenario 1, the RF model outperformed the J48, LMT and NBTree models; in scenario 2, the RF model surpassed the NBTree and LMT models, while being on par with the J48 model; in scenarios 3 and 4, the RF model showed superior performance compared to the NBTree, J48 and LMT models. Therefore, the RF model proved to be the most effective among the models evaluated. The findings derived from this research have the potential to serve as valuable references for the purposes of land‐use planning and catastrophe risk management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the challenges associated with emergency department (ED) overcrowding and emphasizes the need for efficient risk stratification tools to identify high-risk patients for early intervention. While several scoring systems, often based on logistic regression (LR) models, have been proposed to indicate patient illness severity, this study aims to compare the predictive performance of ensemble learning (EL) models with LR for in-hospital mortality in the ED. A cross-sectional single-center study was conducted at the ED of Imam Reza Hospital in northeast Iran from March 2016 to March 2017. The study included adult patients with one to three levels of emergency severity index. EL models using Bagging, AdaBoost, random forests (RF), Stacking and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithms, along with an LR model, were constructed. The training and validation visits from the ED were randomly divided into 80% and 20%, respectively. After training the proposed models using tenfold cross-validation, their predictive performance was evaluated. Model performance was compared using the Brier score (BS), The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC), The area and precision–recall curve (AUCPR), Hosmer–Lemeshow (H–L) goodness-of-fit test, precision, sensitivity, accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC). The study included 2025 unique patients admitted to the hospital's ED, with a total percentage of hospital deaths at approximately 19%. In the training group and the validation group, 274 of 1476 (18.6%) and 152 of 728 (20.8%) patients died during hospitalization, respectively. According to the evaluation of the presented framework, EL models, particularly Bagging, predicted in-hospital mortality with the highest AUROC (0.839, CI (0.802–0.875)) and AUCPR = 0.64 comparable in terms of discrimination power with LR (AUROC (0.826, CI (0.787–0.864)) and AUCPR = 0.61). XGB achieved the highest precision (0.83), sensitivity (0.831), accuracy (0.842), F1-score (0.833), and the highest MCC (0.48). Additionally, the most accurate models in the unbalanced dataset belonged to RF with the lowest BS (0.128). Although all studied models overestimate mortality risk and have insufficient calibration (P > 0.05), stacking demonstrated relatively good agreement between predicted and actual mortality. EL models are not superior to LR in predicting in-hospital mortality in the ED. Both EL and LR models can be considered as screening tools to identify patients at risk of mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Breast cancer (BC) treatment decreases fertility capacity, but unnecessary fertility preservation procedures in women who would not be infertile after treatment would be a waste of time and resources and could cause the unwarranted exposure of cancer cells to exogenous sex hormones. It has been largely shown that post-treatment ovarian reserve is directly associated with pre-treatment anti-mullerian hormone levels (AMH0). A threshold for AMH0, or a model including AMH0 and patient characteristics that could distinguish the patients who will be infertile after treatments, still needs to be defined. Accordingly, this study was performed to specifically target this high-priority concern. Methods: Women ≤ 45 years old with newly diagnosed non-metastatic BC were entered in this multicenter prospective cohort study. AMH0 and two-year post-treatment AMH (AMH2) were measured, and hormonal patient features were recorded as well. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, decision tree (DT), and random forest analyses were performed to find a cut-off point for AMH0 and define a model involving related features for the prediction of AMH2. Results: The data from 84 patients were analyzed. ROC curve analysis revealed that AMH0 > 3 ng/mL (Area under the curve = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.54-0.84) was the best indicator for predicting AMH2 ≥ 0.7 (sensitivity = 79%, specificity = 60%). The best model detected by DT and random forest for predicting an AMH2 > 0.7 with a probability of 93% consisted of a combination of AMH0 > 3.3, menarche age < 14, and age < 31. Conclusion: This combination model can be used to withhold fertility preservation procedures in BC patients. Performing larger studies is suggested to further test this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing levels of air pollution, air quality prediction has attracted more attention. Mathematical models are being developed by researchers to achieve precise predictions. Monitoring and prediction of atmospheric PM2.5 levels, as a predominant pollutant, is essential in emission mitigation programs. In this study, meteorological datasets from 9 years in Isfahan city, a large metropolis of Iran, were applied to predict the PM2.5 levels, using four machine learning algorithms including Artificial Neural |Networks (ANNs), K-Nearest-Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector |Machines (SVMs) and ensembles of classification trees Random Forest (RF). The data from 7 air quality monitoring stations located in Isfahan City were taken into consideration. The Confusion Matrix and Cross-Entropy Loss were used to analyze the performance of classification models. Several parameters, including sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, F1 score, precision, and the area under the curve (AUC), are computed to assess model performance. Finally, by introducing the predicted data for 2020 into ArcGIS software and using the IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) method, interpolation was conducted for the area of Isfahan city and the pollution map was illustrated for each month of the year. The results showed that, based on the accuracy percentage, the ANN model has a better performance (90.1%) in predicting PM2.5 grades compared to the other models for the applied meteorological dataset, followed by RF (86.1%), SVM (84.6%) and KNN (82.2%) models, respectively. Therefore, ANN modelling provides a feasible procedure for the managerial planning of air pollution control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pistachio is one of the most important and valuable orchard products in Iran and some other places in the world. Because it is adaptable to adverse environmental conditions, especially drought and salinity, more land is being used for pistachios. In an increasingly resource constrained world, producers, researchers and policy makers need to clearly identify suitable land to optimize production. The present study modelled the relationship between pistachio yield and soil variables by regression, linear and non-linear (MLR and NMLR), feed forward back propagation artificial neural network (FFBP-ANN), adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and random forest (RF) models in areas under pistachio production from Iran. For this purpose, 124 pistachio orchards were selected and sampled in Kerman, Fars, Khorasan Razavi, Isfahan and East Azarbaijan provinces of Iran. The results indicated that MLR and NMLR could explain 72 and 77% of the pistachio yield variation, respectively, whereas prediction accuracy increased when the data of pistachio orchards were entered in intelligent models: ANFIS, ANN-based and RF to 86, 92 and 96%, respectively. The RF model was found to be most parsimonious. As the models were highly sensitive to gravel, electrical conductivity, exchangeable sodium, CaCO3, gypsum, and available phosphorus and potassium concentrations, special attention should be paid to the measurement and management of these properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many regions of Iran lack digital map of soil properties. The Chahardowli plain in western Iran is one of these areas. Due to the importance of sand, silt, and clay components, having quantitative and continuous data on abrupt changes in these two properties in this area is very critical. Therefore, to study sand, silt, and clay, samples were taken at depths of 0-5, 5-15, 15-30, 30-60, and 60-100 cm, according to GlobalSoilMap. Finally, 145 samples were collected from 30 soil profiles. The significant covariates were selected by Random Forest Recursive Feature Elimination (RF-RFE). Relationships between these characteristics and environmental predictors were modeled using random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The accuracy and precision of the models used for all three particles showed that the RF model had the most accurate prediction with R² and RMSE of 0.82 and 2.34 for clay, 0.80 and 3.87 for sand, and 0.85 and 2.89 for silt, respectively. In this study, terrain-based variables had a greater impact on improving accuracy than remote-sensing variables. The current study showed that even with limited information, digital mapping of sand, silt, and clay particles under GlobalSoilMap and the use of environmental factors can provide acceptable results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inattention of economic policymakers to default risk and making inappropriate decisions related to this risk in the banking system and financial institutions can have many economic, political and social consequences. In this research, it has been tried to calculate the default risk of companies listed in the capital market of Iran. To achieve this goal, two structural models of Merton and Geske, two machine learning models of Random Forest and Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, as well as financial information of companies listed in the Iranian capital market during the years 2016 to 2021 have been used. Another goal of this research is to measure the predictive power of the four models presented in the calculation of default risk. The results obtained from the calculation of the default rate of the investigated companies show that 50 companies listed in the Iranian capital market (46 different companies) have defaulted during the 5-year research period and are subject to the Bankruptcy Article of the Iranian Trade Law. Also, the results obtained from the ROC curves for the predictive power of the presented models show that the structural models of Merton and Geske have almost equal power, but the predictive power of the Random Forest model is a little more than the Gradient Boosted Decision Tree model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying the local geochemical anomalies from stream sediment samples is challenging in regional-scale exploration programs. For this purpose, some robust and reliable techniques must be applied to distinguish the geochemical targets from the background values. In this research, a procedure of several tools, including singularity mapping (SM), random forests (RF), success-rate curves, and the t-Student method, were employed to analyze the geochemical anomalies within the intrusive-plutonic Torud-Chahshirin belt (TCB), northeast Iran. In this regard, the success-rate curves were initially applied to extract efficient geochemical signatures. Then, singularity analysis was used on the selected geochemical elements (Au, Cu, Pb, and Zn), which were transformed via centered log-ratio (clr) transformation. In the next step, due to the complexity of the ore-forming processes in the TCB, the structural factors (e.g., fault intersection and faults with different orientations) were determined. Based on the success-rate curves, NE-trending faults and fault density were distinguished as critical structural criteria. Afterward, the RF model as a robust machine learning algorithm was executed on the four efficient SM-based geochemical layers and two efficient structural factors. The anomaly map derived by the RF model (Accuracy = 98.85% and Error = 1.15%) illustrates a very high relationship with Cu ± Au mineral occurrences. Therefore, the RF algorithm assisted by the singularity method is more trustworthy for highlighting the weak geochemical prospectivity areas in the TCB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mangrove forests grow in coastal areas, lagoons, estuaries, and deltas and form the main vegetation in tidal and saline wetlands. Due to the mankind activities and also changes in climate, these forests face degradations and probably extinction in some areas. Avicennia marina is one of the most distributed mangrove species throughout the world. The populations of A. marina occur in a limited region in southern parts of Iran. Very few genetic and spatial analyses are available on these plants from our country. Therefore, the present study was planned to provide detailed information on Avicennia marina populations with regard to genetic diversity, gene flow versus genetic isolation, effects of spatial variables on connectivity and structuring the genetic content of trees populations and also identifying adaptive genetic regions in respond too spatial variables. We used SCoT molecular markers for genetic analyses and utilized different computational approaches for population genetics and landscapes analyses. The results of present study showed a low to moderate genetic diversity in the studied populations and presence of significant Fst values among them. Genetic fragmentation was also observed within each province studied. A limited gene flow was noticed among neighboring populations within a particular province. One population was almost completely isolated from the gene flow with other populations and had peculiar genetic content.Spatial PCA analysis revealed both significant global and local genetic structuring in the studied populations. Spatial variables like humidity, longitude and altitude were the most important spatial features affecting genetic structure in these populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We utilized the random forest (RF) machine learning algorithm, along with nine topographical/morphological factors, namely aspect, slope, geomorphons, plan curvature, profile curvature, terrain roughness index, surface texture, topographic wetness index (TWI), and elevation. Our objective was to identify flood-prone areas along the meandering Kashkan River and investigate the role of topography in riverbank inundation. To validate the flood susceptibility map generated by the random forest algorithm, we employed Sentinel-1 GRDH SAR imagery from the March 2019 flooding event in the Kashkan river. The SNAP software and the OTSU thresholding method were utilized to extract the flooded/inundated areas from the SAR imagery. The results showed that the random forest model accurately pinpointed areas with a "very high" and "high" risk of flooding. Through analysis of the cross-sections and SAR-based flood maps, we discovered that the topographical confinement of the meander played a crucial role in the extent of inundation along the meandering path. Moreover, the findings indicated that the inner banks along the Kashkan river were more prone to flooding compared to the outer banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ability of hotels to differentiate themselves from competitors and continue to operate profitably depends on their ability to retain their customers by building long-term and permanent customer relationships. Technological developments in recent years have made it possible for companies to predict their customers' behavior by accessing their opinions faster and preventing them from churning. Managing customer churn prediction projects has become an important issue today, especially in the hotel industry. Therefore, this research seeks to analyze projects that predict the churn of hotel customers to provide a model to help hotel managers in this field. In this research, an approach based on text mining on customers' comments in the Persian language is presented, which uses the random forest algorithm for classification that was considered the most effective method to solve this problem. In this model, to increase the efficiency of the proposed method in compare with existing works, the gravitational search algorithm was used to select the useful features, and the differential evolution algorithm was used to adjust the parameters of the classification method. The dataset of this research is the collected data from the customer database on social networks and hotels' websites, especially the hotels on Kish Island in Iran. The results of this research showed that after the implementation of the preprocessing operations, the method of adjusting the parameters and removing the unimportant features, the model's accuracy increased significantly. The precision, recall, F1, and accuracy criteria were 0.77, 0.76, 0.76, and 0.77, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The exploration of buried mineral deposits is required to generate innovative approaches and the integration of multi-source geoscientific datasets. Mining geochemistry methods have been generated based on the theory of multi-formational geochemical dispersion haloes. Satellite remote sensing data is a form of surficial geoscience datasets and can be considered as big data in terms of veracity and volume. The different alteration zones extracted using remote sensing methods have not been yet categorized based on the mineralogical and geochemical types (MGT) of anomalies and cannot discriminate blind mineralization (BM) from zone dispersed mineralization (ZDM). In this research, an innovative approach was developed to optimize remote sensing-based evidential variables using some constructed mining geochemistry models for a machine learning (ML)-based copper prospectivity mapping. Accordingly, several main steps were implemented and analyzed. Initially, the MGT model was executed by studying the distribution of indicator elements of lithogeochemical data extracted from 50 copper deposits from Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries to identify the MGT of geochemical anomalies associated with copper mineralization. Then, the geochemical zonality model was constructed using the database of the porphyry copper deposits of Iran and Kazakhstan to evaluate the geochemical anomalies related to porphyry copper mineralization (e.g., the Saghari deposit located around the Chah-Musa deposit, Toroud-Chah Shirin belt, central north Iran). Subsequently, the results of mining geochemistry models were used to produce the geochemical evidential variable by vertical geochemical zonality (Vz) (Pb × Zn/Cu × Mo) and to optimize the remote sensing-based evidential variables. Finally, a random forest algorithm was applied to integrate the evidential variables for generating a provincial-scale prospectivity mapping of porphyry copper deposits in the Toroud-Chah Shirin belt. The results of this investigation substantiated that the machine learning (ML)-based integration of multi-source geoscientific datasets, such as mining geochemistry techniques and satellite remote sensing data, is an innovative and applicable approach for copper mineralization prospectivity mapping in metallogenic provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to climate change. Until now, 80 terrestrial snakes have been identified in Iran in which 16 are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose 11% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (2071- 2100SSP585). Results also showed that only around 8% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard that can critically harm road infrastructure in mountainous places, resulting in significant damage and fatalities. The primary purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy of three machine learning algorithms (MLAs) for landslide susceptibility mapping including random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), and support vector machine (SVM). We selected a case study region that is frequently affected by landslides, the important Kamyaran–Sarvabad road in the Kurdistan province of Iran. Altogether, 14 landslide evaluation factors were input into the MLAs including slope, aspect, elevation, river density, distance to river, distance to fault, fault density, distance to road, road density, land use, slope curvature, lithology, stream power index (SPI), and topographic wetness index (TWI). We identified 64 locations of landslides by field survey of which 70% were randomly employed for building and training the three MLAs while the remaining locations were used for validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUC) reached a value of 0.94 for the decision tree compared to 0.82 for the random forest, and 0.75 for support vector machines model. Thus, the decision tree model was most accurate in identifying the areas at risk for future landslides. The obtained results may inform geoscientists and those in decision-making roles for landslide management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Hypercholesterolemia is a major risk factor for a wide range of cardiovascular diseases. Developing countries are more susceptible to hypercholesterolemia and its complications due to the increasing prevalence and the lack of adequate resources for conducting screening and/or prevention programs. Using machine learning techniques to identify factors contributing to hypercholesterolemia and developing predictive models can help early detection of hypercholesterolemia, especially in developing countries. Methods: Data from the nationwide 2016 STEPs study in Iran were used to identify socioeconomic, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors associated with hypercholesterolemia. Furthermore, the predictive power of the identified risk factors was assessed using five commonly used machine learning algorithms (random forest; gradient boosting; support vector machine; logistic regression; artificial neural network) and 10-fold cross validation in terms of specificity, sensitivity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: A total of 14,667 individuals were included in this study, of those 12.8% (n = 1879) had (undiagnosed) hypercholesterolemia. Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis the five most important risk factors for hypercholesterolemia were: older age (for the elderly group: OR = 2.243; for the middle-aged group: OR = 1.869), obesity-related factors including high BMI status (morbidly obese: OR = 1.884; obese: OR = 1.499; overweight: OR = 1.426) and AO (OR = 1.339), raised BP (hypertension: OR = 1.729; prehypertension: OR = 1.577), consuming fish once or twice per week (OR = 1.261), and having risky diet (OR = 1.163). Furthermore, all the five hypercholesterolemia prediction models achieved AUC around 0.62, and models based on random forest (AUC = 0.6282; specificity = 65.14%; sensitivity = 60.51%) and gradient boosting (AUC = 0.6263; specificity = 64.11%; sensitivity = 61.15%) had the optimal performance. Conclusion: The study shows that socioeconomic inequalities, unhealthy lifestyle, and metabolic syndrome (including obesity and hypertension) are significant predictors of hypercholesterolemia. Therefore controlling these factors is necessary to reduce the burden of hypercholesterolemia. Furthermore, machine learning algorithms such as random forest and gradient boosting can be employed for hypercholesterolemia screening and its timely diagnosis. Applying deep learning algorithms as well as techniques for handling the class overlap problem seems necessary to improve the performance of the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, two models of Random Forest and copula-based simulation were used to evaluate the accuracy and efficiency of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in simulating the daily discharge of the Siminehroud River in the south of Lake Urmia basin, Iran. A trivariate copula-based model was created using discharge, rainfall and temperature data on a daily scale in the period 1992–2018. Vine family models and their conditional densities were used to implement the copula-based model. By calibrating the IHACRES model and also selecting the tree sequence in accordance with the data, rainfall-runoff simulations were performed in the study area. The accuracy and efficiency of the studied models were evaluated using RMSE and NSE criteria, and also violin plot and Taylor diagram. The results of comparing the error rate of rainfall-runoff simulation in the study area showed that the vine-based model reduces the RMSE statistics by about 14.5 and 16.5%, respectively, compared to the IHACRES and Random Forest models. According to the presented diagrams, the efficiency and certainty of IHACRES and copula-based simulation models are acceptable. While the Random Forest model does not have acceptable accuracy and efficiency in the study area. The copula-based simulation model has a good performance due to the unique tree sequence as well as involving the marginal distributions fitted to the data. Although the copula-based simulation model has increased the efficiency of the model in simulating the daily discharge by about 5% compared to the IHACRES model, it is not significant compared to the mathematical complexity of the copula-based model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inorganic carbon is the largest source of carbon in terrestrial surface, particularly in arid and semiarid regions, including the Chahardowli Plain in western Iran. Inorganic carbon plays an equal or greater role than organic soil carbon in these areas, although less attention has been paid in quantifying their variability. The objective of this study was to model and map calcium carbonate equivalent (CCE) presenting inorganic carbon in soil using machine learning and digital soil mapping techniques. Chahardowli Plain in foothills of the Zagros Mountains in the southeast of Kurdistan Province in Iran was taken as a case study area. CCE was measured at 0–5, 5–15, 15–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths following GloalSoilMap.net project specifications. A total of 145 samples were collected from 30 soil profiles using the conditional Latin hypercube (cLHS) method of sampling. Relationships between CCE and environmental predictors were modeled using random forest (RF) and decision tree (DT) models. In general, the RF model performed slightly superior than the DT model. The mean value of CCE increased with soil depth, from 3.5% (0–5 cm) to 63.8% (30–60 cm). Remote sensing (RS) variables and terrestrial variables were equally important. The importance of RS variables was higher at the surface than terrestrial variables, and vice versa. The most significant variables were Channel Network Base Level (CNBL) variable and Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) with the same variable importance value (21.1%). In areas affected by river activities, the use of the CNBL and vertical distance to channel networks (VDCN) as variables in digital soil mapping (DSM) could increase the accuracy of soil property prediction maps. The VDCN played a principal role in soil distribution in the study area by affecting the rate of discharge and, thus, erosion and sedimentation. A high percentage of carbonate in parts of the region could exacerbate nutrient deficiencies for most crops and provide information for sustainably managing agricultural activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study was conducted to compare generalized linear model (GLM), random forest (RF), and Cubist to produce available phosphorus (AP) and potassium (AK) maps and to identify the covariates that control mineral distribution in Lorestan Province, Iran. To this end, the locations for collecting 173 soil samples were determined through the conditioned Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS) method, at four different land-uses (orchards, paddy fields, agricultural, and abandoned fields). The performance of the models was assessed by coefficient of determination (R2), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) indices. The results showed that the RF model fitted better than GLM and Cubist models and could explain 40 and 57% of AP and AK distribution, respectively. The R2, RMSE, and MAE of the RF model were 0.4, 2.81, and 2.43 for predicting AP and equal to 0.57, 143.77, and 116.61 for predicting AK, respectively. The most important predictors selected by the RF model were valley depth and soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) for AP and AK, respectively. The maps showed higher AP and AK content in apricot orchards compared to other land-uses. No difference was observed between AP and AK content on paddy fields, agricultural, and abandoned areas. The higher AP and AK contents were related to orchard management practices, such as failure to dispose of plant residuals and fertilizer consumption. It can be concluded that the orchards (by increasing soil quality) was the best land-use in line with sustainable management for the study area. However, generalizing the results needs more detailed research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant diversity measurement and monitoring are required for reversing biodiversity loss and ensuring sustainable management. Traditional methods have been using in situ measurements to build multivariate models connecting environmental factors to species diversity. Developments in remotely sensed datasets, processing techniques, and machine learning models provide new opportunities for assessing relevant environmental parameters and estimating species diversity. In this study, geodiversity variables containing the topographic and soil variables and multi-seasonal remote-sensing-based features were used to estimate plant diversity in a rangeland from southwest Iran. Shannon's and Simpson's indices, species richness, and vegetation cover were used to measure plant diversity and attributes in 96 plots. A random forest model was implemented to predict and map diversity indices, richness, and vegetation cover using 32 remotely sensed and 21 geodiversity variables. Additionally, the linear regression and Spearman's correlation coefficient were used to assess the relationship between the spectral diversity, expressed as the coefficient of variation in vegetation indices, and species diversity metrics. The results indicated that the synergistic use of geodiversity and multi-seasonal remotely sensed features provide the highest accuracy for Shannon, Simpson, species richness, and vegetation cover indices (R2 up to 0.57), as compared to a single model for each date (February, April, and July). Furthermore, the strongest relationship between species diversity and the coefficient of variation in vegetation indices was based on the remotely-sensed data of April. The approach of multi-model evaluations using the full geodiversity and remotely sensed variables could be a useful method for biodiversity monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Hyperglycemia is rising globally and its associated complications impose heavy health and economic burden on the countries. Developing effective survey-based screening tools for hyperglycemia using reliable surveillance data, such as the WHO STEPs surveys, would be of great importance in early detection and/or prevention of hyperglycemia, especially in low or middle-income regions. Methods: In this study, data from the nationwide 2016 STEPs study in Iran were used to identify socioeconomic, lifestyle, and metabolic factors associated with hyperglycemia. Furthermore, the ability of five commonly used machine learning algorithms (random forest; gradient boosting; support vector machine; logistic regression; artificial neural network) in the prediction of hyperglycemia on STEPs dataset were compared via tenfold cross validation in terms of specificity, sensitivity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: A total of 17,705 individuals were included in this study, of those 29.624% (n = 5245) had (undiagnosed) hyperglycemia. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age (for the elderly group: OR = 5.096; for the middle-aged group: OR = 2.784), high BMI status (morbidly obese: OR = 3.465; obese: OR = 1.992), having hypertension (OR = 1.647), consuming fish more than twice per week (OR = 1.496), and abdominal obesity (OR = 1.464) were the five most important risk factors for hyperglycemia. Furthermore, all the five hyperglycemia prediction models achieved AUC around 0.70, and logistic regression (specificity = 70.22%; sensitivity = 70.2%) and random forest (specificity = 70.75%; sensitivity = 69.78%) had the optimal performance. Conclusions: This study shows that it is possible to develop survey-based screening tools for early detection of hyperglycemia using data from nationwide surveys, such as WHO STEPs surveys, and machine learning techniques, such as random forest and logistic regression, without using blood tests. Such screening tools can potentially improve hyperglycemia control, especially in low or middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land subsidence (LS) is one of the most challenging natural disasters that has potential consequences such as damage to infrastructures and buildings, creating sinkholes, and leading to soil destruction. To mitigate the damages caused by LS, it is necessary to determine the LS-prone areas. In this paper, LS susceptibility was assessed for Kashan Plain in Iran using Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost machine learning algorithms. For the susceptibility analysis, twelve influential factors including elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), groundwater drawdown (GWD), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance to stream (DtS), distance to road (DtR), distance to fault (DtF), lithology, and land use were taken into account. 291 LS points were used in this study which was divided into two parts of 70% and 30% for training and testing the models, respectively. The prediction power of the models and their produced LS susceptibility maps (LSSMs) were validated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), R-Squared (R2), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values. The results showed that the XGBoost had a higher R² equal to 0.9032 compared to that of the RF which was equal to 0.8355. XGBoost model had an RMSE equal to 0.3764 cm compared to that of the RF model which was equal to 0.4906 cm. MAE for the XGBoost model was 0.1217 cm and for the RF model was 0.3050 cm. Therefore, the achieved results proved that XGBoost had better performance in this research for predicting LS values based on the measured ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Balangu (Lallemantia iberica) species have a high gastronomical impact in the Middle East and Balkan region. It is widely used in the local food industry, such as confectionery, edible oil, and protein food. In this study, 49 ecotypes were collected from different regions of Iran. 37 agronomic traits were measured during the growing season and at harvest time. To find the correlation between the grain yield per unit area, grain yield per single plant (GYSP), oil percent (OP), and protein percent (PP) with other measured traits, which these were utilized as the labels of different machine learning (ML) procedures including Linear Regression (LR), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest Regression (RFR), and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree Regression (GBDTR). It was observed that there is a linear relationship between the measured agronomic traits and the considered labels. So, the LR, RFR, and GBDTR models showed the lowest mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error than SVR models and good prediction ability of the test data. Although, the RFR and GBDTR have naturally lower bias than other methods in this study, but the GBDTR scheme is preferred because of the over-fitting shortcoming of the RFR technique. The GBDTR method showed better results rather than the other ML regression methods according to the RMSE 3.302, 0.040, 0.028, and 0.060 for GYUA, GYSP, OP, and PP, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil provides a key interface between the atmosphere and the lithosphere and plays an important role in food production, ecosystem services, and biodiversity. Recently, demands for applying machine learning (ML) methods to improve the knowledge and understanding of soil behavior have increased. While real-world datasets are inherently imbalanced, ML models overestimate the majority classes and underestimate the minority ones. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of imbalance in training data on the performance of a random forest model (RF). The original dataset (imbalanced) included 6100 soil texture data from the surface layer of agricultural fields in northern Iran. A synthetic resampling approach using the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to make a balanced dataset from the original data. Bioclimatic and remotely sensed data, distance, and terrain attributes were used as environmental covariates to model and map soil textural classes. Results showed that based on mean minimal depth (MMD), when imbalanced data was used, distance and annual mean precipitation were important, but when balanced data were employed, terrain attributes and remotely sensed data played a key role in predicting soil texture. Balanced data also improved the accuracies from 44% to 59% and 0.30 to 0.52 with regard to the overall accuracy and kappa values, respectively. Similar increasing trends were observed for the recall and F-scores. It is concluded that, in modeling soil texture classes using RF models through a digital soil mapping approach, data should be balanced before modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, urbanization, and a growing population have led to a rapid increase in groundwater (GW) use. As a result, monitoring groundwater changes is essential for water managers and decision-makers. Due to the lack of reliable and insufficient in situ information, remote sensing and hydrological models may be counted as alternative sources to assess GW storage changes on regional and global scales. However, often, these hydrological models have a low spatial resolution for water-related applications on a small scale. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to downscale the GW storage anomaly (GWSA) of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) from a coarse (0.5 degrees) to a finer spatial resolution (0.1 degrees) using fine spatial resolution auxiliary datasets (0.1 degrees), such as evaporation (E), surface (SRO), subsurface runoff (SSRO), snow depth (SD), and volumetric soil water (SWVL), from the ERA5-Land model, as well as the global precipitation (Pre) measurement (GPM-IMERG) product. The Qazvin Plain in central Iran was selected as the case study region, as it faces a severe decline in GW resources. Different statistical regression models were tested for the GWSA downscaling to find the most suitable method. Moreover, since different water budget components (such as precipitation or storage) are known to have temporal lead or lag relative to each other, the approach also incorporates a time shift factor. The most suitable regression model with the highest skill score during the training-validation was selected and applied to predict the final 0.1-degree GWSA. The downscaled results showed high agreement with the in situ groundwater levels over the Qazvin Plain on both interannual and monthly time scales, with a correlation coefficient of 0.989 and 0.62, respectively. Moreover, the downscaled product represents clear proof that the developed downscaling technique is able to learn from high-resolution auxiliary data to capture GWSA features at a higher spatial resolution. The major benefit of the proposed method lies in the utilization of only the auxiliary data that are available with global coverage and are free of charge, while not requiring in situ GW records for training or prediction. Therefore, the proposed downscaling technique can potentially be applied at a global scale and to aquifers in other geographical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the effects of extreme floods on critical infrastructures such as bridges is paramount for ensuring safety and resilient design in the face of climate change and extreme events. This study develops robust computational and predictive modeling tools for assessing the impacts of extreme floods on the hydraulic response and structural resilience of bridges. A computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model utilizing RANS equations and k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) for simulating supercritical flows is adopted to compute hydrodynamic pressures and the water levels on bridge piers of cylindrical and rectangular shapes during a flood event. The CFD model is validated based on the case study data obtained from the Haj Omran Bridge, built on the Khorramabad River in Iran. The numerical simulations consider hydrological conditions and exclude geotechnical parameters and abutment damages. The numerical results are evaluated based on well-established design guidelines. Machine learning techniques, including Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Regression (SVR), optimized with Grid Search Cross-Validation (GSCV), are adopted to enhance the accuracy of hydrodynamic pressure forecasting at bridge piers. The XGBoost model exhibits superior performance (R2 = 0.908, RMSE = 0.0279, and E = 3.41%) compared to the RF and SVR models. All the estimated pressure data by XGBoost falls within ±6 percent error lines, highlighting the model's robustness for out-of-range hydrodynamic pressure prediction. Additionally, an optimized Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model is adopted to effectively predict free surface flow profiles (i.e. flood depth) over the bridge (R2 = 0.937 and RMSE = 0.083), demonstrating its potential for practical applications of flood depth predictions over bridge infrastructures. The proposed methodological framework outlined in this study can facilitate modeling the impacts of extreme floods on bridges, enabling robust climate resilience assessment of critical infrastructures. [Display omitted] • Impacts of extreme flood on bridges are investigated. • Optimized LSTM robustly predicts water surface profiles over bridges. • XGBoost outperform RF and SVR in forecasting hydrodynamic pressure at piers. • Performance of design codes in estimating hydrodynamic pressure on piers is compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The increasing burden of hypertension in low- to middle-income countries necessitates the assessment of care coverage to monitor progress and guide future policies. This study uses an ensemble learning approach to evaluate hypertension care coverage in a nationally representative Iranian survey. Methods: The data source was the cross-sectional 2016 Iranian STEPwise approach to risk factor surveillance (STEPs). Hypertension was based on blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg, reported use of anti-hypertensive medications, or a previous hypertension diagnosis. The four steps of care were screening (irrespective of blood pressure value), diagnosis, treatment, and control. The proportion of patients reaching each step was calculated, and a random forest model was used to identify features associated with progression to each step. After model optimization, the six most important variables at each step were considered to demonstrate population-based marginal effects. Results: The total number of participants was 30541 (52.3% female, median age: 42 years). Overall, 9420 (30.8%) had hypertension, among which 89.7% had screening, 62.3% received diagnosis, 49.3% were treated, and 7.9% achieved control. The random forest model indicated that younger age, male sex, lower wealth, and being unmarried/divorced were consistently associated with a lower probability of receiving care in different levels. Dyslipidemia was associated with reaching diagnosis and treatment steps; however, patients with other cardiovascular comorbidities were not likely to receive more intensive blood pressure management. Conclusion: Hypertension care was mostly missing the treatment and control stages. The random forest model identified features associated with receiving care, indicating opportunities to improve effective coverage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This study sought to provide machine learning-based classification models to predict the success of intrauterine insemination (IUI) therapy. Additionally, we sought to illustrate the effect of models fitting with balanced data vs original data with imbalanced data labels using two different types of resampling methods. Finally, we fit models with all features against optimized feature sets using various feature selection techniques.Methods: The data for the cross-sectional study were collected from 546 infertile couples with IUI at the Fatemehzahra Infertility Research Center, Babol, North of Iran. Logistic regression (LR), support vector classification, random forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and, Stacking generalization (Stack) as the machine learning classifiers were used to predict IUI success by Python v3.7. We employed the Smote-Tomek (Stomek) and Smote-ENN (SENN) resampling methods to address the imbalance problem in the original dataset. Furthermore, to increase the performance of the models, mutual information classification (MIC-FS), genetic algorithm (GA-FS), and random forest (RF-FS) were used to select the ideal feature sets for model development.Results: In this study, 28% of patients undergoing IUI treatment obtained a successful pregnancy. Also, the average age of women and men was 24.98 and 29.85 years, respectively. The calibration plot in this study for IUI success prediction by machine learning models showed that between feature selection methods, the RF-FS, and among the datasets used to fit the models, the balanced dataset with the Stomek method had well-calibrating predictions than other methods. Finally, the brier scores for the LR, SVC, RF, XGBoost, and Stack models that were fitted utilizing the Stomek dataset and the chosen feature set using the Random Forest technique obtained equal to 0.202, 0.183, 0.158, 0.129, and 0.134, respectively. It showed duration of infertility, male and female age, sperm concentration, and sperm motility grading score as the most predictable factors in IUI success.Conclusion: The results of this study with the XGBoost prediction model can be used to foretell the individual success of IUI for each couple before initiating therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medical data mining is considered as a new solution to the analysis of medical data and further expansion of the relative knowledge. Medical data mining has a high potential to discover the hidden patterns. Recently, some studies have been conducted on the relationship between the individuals' environmental surroundings and their exposure to diseases, thus clearly confirming the considerable impact of the quality of environmental indicators such as environmental pollutants on diseases. In this respect, the current study investigated the effect of the environmental conditions on the chance of diabetes based on medical data mining technique. Given that diabetes is a global threat to the human health, an Ensemble Classifier based on Genetic Algorithm (ECGA) method was designed to study the environmental conditions in diabetes. Decision tree, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, and naive were included in the designed ensemble classifier. It was found that ECGA was more accurate than the base classifier algorithms. For study purposes, three datasets were collected from different regions in Iran with different climatic conditions and it was found that environmental conditions had a significant impact on diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural practices affect arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) hyphae growth and glomalin production, which is a recalcitrant carbon (C) source in soil. Since the spatial distribution of glomalin is an interesting issue for agronomists in terms of carbon sequestration, digital maps are a cost-free and useful approach. For this study, a set of 120 soil samples was collected from an experimental area of 310 km2 from the Sarab region of Iran. Soil total glomalin (TG) and easily extractable glomalin (EEG) were determined via ELISA using the monoclonal antibody 32B11. Soil organic carbon (OC) was also measured. The ratios of TG/OC and EEG/OC as the glomalin–C quotes of OC were calculated. A total of 17 terrain-related attributes were also derived from the digital elevation model (DEM) and used as static environmental covariates in digital soil mapping (DSM) using three predictive models, including multiple linear regression (MLR), random forests (RF), and Cubist (CU). The major findings were as follows: (a) DSM facilitated the interpretation of recalcitrant C source variation; (b) RF outperformed MLR and CU as models in predicting and mapping the spatial distribution of glomalin using available covariates; (c) the best accuracy in predictions was for EEG, followed by EEG/OC, TG, and TG/OC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera, generally, and the species of the Raddei clade, specifically, are interesting examples of species neo-endemism in Iran, Anatolia, and the Caucasus. Given the critical conservation status of these species, it is necessary to identify their suitable habitats for prioritizing conservation measures. We modeled ecological niche of each species based on four species distribution models, including generalized linear models, generalized boosting models, random forest, and maximum entropy and combined them in an ensemble model. Also, using a new principal component analysis (PCA-env), the ecological niche divergence of the species was investigated. Results indicated that all models with AUC and TSS > 0.9 had excellent predictive performance. The species of the Raddei clade showed different patterns of ecological niche occupation and the greatest differentiation was seen in the gradient of temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, and topographical ruggedness. M. latifii and M. kuhrangica, despite the great geographical distance, revealed the highest degree of niche overlap and niche similarity. Due to the restricted distribution and limited evolutionary adaptability of mountain vipers in the mountainous regions of Alborz and Zagros, it is imperative to plan conservation measures to reduce the factors that threaten the long-term survival of these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iranian plateau is a seismically active region. Within this region, northwestern Iran is of high importance. Before proper planning for mitigating the earthquake-induced hazards can be achieved, it is necessary to identify high-risk areas in terms of susceptibility to earthquakes. In this study, landslide susceptibility in Miandoab Country was modeled using the so-called random forest algorithm (RFA) in MATLAB based on records acquired at 67 earthquake hotspots considering 9 factors affecting the earthquake occurrence (i.e., height, slope, direction, distance from fault, distance from river, distance from road, land use, geology, and precipitation). Predictive power of the model and validity of its results were evaluated using relative operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC). The assessment results showed very good accuracy of the model (0.97). It was further found that digital height layer, geology, and distance from fault impose the largest contributions into earthquake potential. The results also showed that 53%, 8.3%, and 38.4% of the study area were classified as being at low risk, moderate risk, and high risk of earthquake. Among other climatic elements, the precipitation exhibits the largest fluctuations; we proceeded to evaluate precipitation trends in the study area for a statistical period of 30 years. This was practiced by implementing Mann–Kendall nonparametric test in MATLAB. This subject-matter is especially important in Iran where the annual precipitation level is as low as 250 mm. The results showed that the precipitation follows an increasing trend in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biodiversity assessment and forest management require accurate tree species maps, which can be provided by remote sensing. Whereas the application of high-spatial resolution remote sensing data is constrained by high costs, Sentinel-2 (S2) satellites provide free imagery with appropriate spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions for mapping of various forest traits across larger spatial scales. Here we assessed the potential of multidate S2 as well as a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in classifying tree species across a highly structured and heterogeneous broadleaf forest ecosystem in the Hyrcanian zone of northern Iran. We applied multidate S2 and DEM data as input to a variable selection using random forests algorithm for feature reduction. Ten forest types were classified using random forest algorithm and to evaluate the results we computed area-adjusted confusion matrices. Classifications based on single-date S2 data reached overall accuracies of 67–74 per cent, whereas results for multidate S2 images increased the accuracy by ~28 per cent. Joint use of DEM data along with multidate S2 images showed improvement of overall accuracy by ~3 per cent. In addition, we studied the effect of topographic correction of S2 data on classification performance. The results imply that applying topographically corrected imagery had no significant effect on the classification accuracy. Our results demonstrate the high potential of freely available multisource remotely sensed data for broadleaf tree species classification across complex broad-leaved forest landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a prevalent multifactorial disorder that can increase the risk of developing diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. We aimed to compare different machine learning classification methods in predicting metabolic syndrome status as well as identifying influential genetic or environmental risk factors.Methods: This candidate gene study was conducted on 4756 eligible participants from the Tehran Cardio-metabolic Genetic study (TCGS). We compared predictive models using logistic regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), decision tree (DT), support vector machines (SVM), and discriminant analyses. Demographic and clinical features, as well as variables regarding common GCKR gene polymorphisms, were included in the models. We used a 10-repeated tenfold cross-validation to evaluate model performance.Results: 50.6% of participants had MetS. MetS was significantly associated with age, gender, schooling years, BMI, physical activity, rs780094, and rs780093 (P < 0.05) as indicated by LR. RF showed the best performance overall (AUC-ROC = 0.804, AUC-PR = 0.776, and Accuracy = 0.743) and indicated BMI, physical activity, and age to be the most influential model features. According to the DT, a person with BMI < 24 and physical activity < 8.8 possesses a 4% chance for MetS. In contrast, a person with BMI ≥ 25, physical activity < 2.7, and age ≥ 33, has 77% probability of suffering from MetS.Conclusion: Our findings indicated that, on average, machine learning models outperformed conventional statistical approaches for patient classification. These well-performing models may be used to develop future support systems that use a variety of data sources to identify persons at high risk of getting MetS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest canopy cover (FCC) is an important ecological parameter of forest ecosystems, and is correlated with forest characteristics, including plant growth, regeneration, biodiversity, light regimes, and hydrological properties. Here, we present an approach of combining Sentinel-2 data, high-resolution aerial images, and machine learning (ML) algorithms to model FCC in the Hyrcanian mixed temperate forest, Northern Iran. Sentinel-2 multispectral bands and vegetation indices were used as variables for modeling and mapping FCC based on UAV ground truth to a wider spatial extent. Random forest (RF), support-vector machine (SVM), elastic net (ENET), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were the ML algorithms used to learn and generalize on the remotely sensed variables. Evaluation of variable importance indicated that vegetation indices including NDVI, NDVI-A, NDRE, and NDI45 were the dominant predictors in most of the models. Model accuracy estimation results showed that among the tested models, RF (R2 = 0.67, RMSE = 18.87%, MAE = 15.35%) and ENET (R2 = 0.63, RMSE = 20.04%, MAE = 16.44%) showed the best and the worst performance, respectively. In conclusion, it was possible to prove the suitability of integrating UAV-obtained RGB images, Sentinel-2 data, and ML models for the estimation of FCC, intended for precise and fast mapping at landscape-level scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an improved convolutional neural network based on the conventional U-Net for simulating built-up land expansion. The proposed method hires a pixel-wise semantic segmentation approach considering the spatial drivers affecting urbanization as data cubes. Independent variables including altitude, slope, and distance from barren, crop, greenery, roads, and urban areas for 1998, 2008, and 2018 were considered as covariates for the simulation of built-up land expansion in Tehran and Karaj regions in Iran. The proposed method was compared with the random forest (RF) algorithm as the baseline model. Evaluation using the area under the total operating characteristic indicated the superiority of our modified U-Net (0.87) over the RF (0.82) algorithm. Furthermore, evaluation using the percent correct metric indicated that our proposed model is capable of learning neighborhood effects effectively leading to simulate built-up land expansion accurately, independent from applying a cellular automata (CA) model. Therefore, the modified U-Net independent from the CA which can consider the neighborhood effects is recommended for the simulation of built-up land expansion precisely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models are evaluated and their prediction performance compared in classifying five wellbore fluid-loss classes from a 20-well drilling dataset (Azadegan oil field, Iran). That dataset includes 65,376 data records with seventeen drilling variables. The dataset fluid-loss classes are heavily imbalanced (> 95% of data records belong to the less significant loss classes 1 and 2; only 0.05% of the data records belong to the complete-loss class 5). Class imbalance and the lack of high correlations between the drilling variables and fluid-loss classes pose challenges for ML/DL models. Tree-based and data matching ML algorithms outperform DL and regression-based ML algorithms in predicting the fluid-loss classes. Random forest (RF), after training and testing, makes only 35 prediction errors for all data records. Consideration of precision recall and F1-scores and expanded confusion matrices show that the RF model provides the best predictions for fluid-loss classes 1 to 3, but that for class 4 Adaboost (ADA) and class 5 decision tree (DT) outperform RF. This suggests that an ensemble of the fast to execute RF, ADA and DT models may be the best way to practically achieve reliable wellbore fluid-loss predictions. DL models underperform several ML models evaluated and are particularly poor at predicting the least represented classes 4 and 5. The DL models also require much longer execution times than the ML models, making them less attractive for field operations that require prompt information regarding rapid real-time decision responses to pending class-4 and class-5 fluid-loss events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the role of machine learning (ML) models concerning environmental predictors on spatial variation of soil organic carbon stocks (SOCS) in arid rangelands is very necessary. This study was conducted to explore the variability of surface SOCS in rangeland in the west of Iran using ML approaches. A number of 33 environmental predictors derived from Sentinel-2B and DEM were used. The optimal soil sampling (n = 80) position was determined by Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS) method. Robust and popular random Forest (RF), cubist (CB) along with random forest-ordinary kriging (RF-OK), and cubist-ordinary kriging (CB-OK) hybrid ML models were applied to the prediction of SOCS. Ten-fold CV was implemented for modeling performance and uncertainty map. According to data analysis, the maximum, minimum, and average values of SOCS are 44.50, 10.50, and 20.50 (ton. ha−1) at the surface depth (0–30 cm), respectively. In general, normalized and standardized height covariates had a higher effect related to other predictors. On the other hand, two remote sensing (RS) indices, including salinity ratio (salinity) and GNDVI index, had a better impact on SOCS variability. The external validation of model performance indicated that RF-OK with (R2 = 0.75, RMSE = 6.33 ton. ha−1) with the high and low uncertainty range (3.33–9.50 ton. ha−1) was the outperformed ML model in compare with other models as RF (R2 = 0.65, RMSE = 7.38 ton. ha−1), CB-OK (R2 = 0.56, RMSE = 9.22 ton. ha−1), and CB (R2 = 0.33, RMSE = 10.42 ton. ha−1). In general, the hybrid models improved the accuracy of RF and CB with increased 0.11 until 0.23 of R2, and 1.05 to 1.2 (ton. ha−1) decreased RMSE of model's prediction. Hence, we conclude that the topographic attributes (especially normalized and standardized height) were the most critical factors in controlling surface SOCS in arid rangelands when combining with robust RF ML model, and optimized soil sampling methods like RF-cLHS can prepare acceptable soil properties maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Chest computed tomography (CT) plays an essential role in diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, CT findings are often nonspecific among different viral pneumonia conditions. The differentiation between COVID-19 and influenza can be challenging when seasonal influenza concurs with the COVID-19 pandemic. This study was conducted to test the ability of radiomics-artificial intelligence (AI) to perform this task. Methods: In this retrospective study, chest CT images from 47 patients with COVID-19 (after February 2020) and 19 patients with H1N1 influenza (before September 2019) pneumonia were collected from three hospitals affiliated with Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran. All pulmonary lesions were segmented on CT images. Multiple radiomics features were extracted from the lesions and used to develop support-vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN), decision tree, neural network, adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and random forest. Results: The patients with COVID-19 and H1N1 influenza were not significantly different in age and sex (P=0.13 and 0.99, respectively). Nonetheless, the average time between initial symptoms/hospitalization and chest CT was shorter in the patients with COVID-19 (P=0.001 and 0.01, respectively). After the implementation of the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 453 pulmonary lesions were included in this study. On the harmonized features, random forest yielded the highest performance (area under the curve=0.97, sensitivity=89%, precision=90%, F1 score=89%, and classification accuracy=89%). Conclusion: In our preliminary study, radiomics feature extraction, conjoined with AI, especially random forest and neural network, appeared to yield very promising results in the differentiation between COVID-19 and H1N1 influenza on chest CT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowledge of environmental factors controlling soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks can help predict spatial distribution SOC stocks. So, this study was carried out to select the best environmental factors to model and estimate the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in northwestern Iran. Soil sampling was performed at 210 points by multiple conditioned Latin Hypercube method (cLHm) and SOC stocks were measured. Also, environmental factors, including terrain attributes, moisture index, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were calculated. SOC stocks were modeled using random forest (RF) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) models. Modeling SOC stocks by RF model showed that the efficient factors for estimating the SOC stocks were slope height (slph), terrain surface texture (texture), standardized height (standh), elevation, relative slope position (rsp), and normalized height (normalh). Also, the PLSR model selected standardized height (standh), relative slope position (rsp), slope, and channel network base level (chnl base) to model SOC stocks. In both RF and PLSR methods, the standh and rsp factors were suitable parameters for estimating the SOC stocks. Predicting the spatial distribution of SOC stocks using environmental factors showed that the R2 values for RF and PLSR models were 0.81 and 0.40, respectively. The result of this study showed that in areas with complex land features, terrain attributes can be good predictors for estimating SOC stocks. These predictors allow more accurate estimates of SOC stocks and contribute considerably to the effective application of land management strategies in arid and semiarid area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a useful assisted reproductive technology to achieve pregnancy in infertile couples. However, it is very important to optimize the success rate after IVF by controlling for its influencing factors. This study aims to classify successful deliveries after IVF according to couples' characteristics and available data on oocytes, sperm, and embryos using several classification methods. Materials and Methods: This historical cohort study was conducted in a referral infertility centre located in Tehran, Iran. The patients' demographic and clinical variables for 6071 cycles during March 21, 2011 to March 20, 2014 were collected. We used six different machine learning approaches including support vector machine (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), naïve Bayes (NB), and linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to predict successful delivery. The results of the performed methods were compared using accuracy tools. Results: The rate of successful delivery was 81.2% among 4930 cycles. The total accuracy of the results exposed RF had the best performance among the six approaches (ACC=0.81). Regarding the importance of variables, total number of embryos, number of injected oocytes, cause of infertility, female age, and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) were the most important factors predicting successful delivery. Conclusion: A successful delivery following IVF in infertile individuals is considerably affected by the number of embryos, number of injected oocytes, cause of infertility, female age, and PCOS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 has led to a pandemic, affecting almost all countries in a few months. In this work, we applied selected deep learning models including multilayer perceptron, random forest, and different versions of long short-term memory (LSTM), using three data sources to train the models, including COVID-19 occurrences, basic information like coded country names, and detailed information like population, and area of different countries. The main goal is to forecast the outbreak in nine countries (Iran, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Switzerland, Spain, China, and the USA). The performances of the models are measured using four metrics, including mean average percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), normalized RMSE (NRMSE), and R 2 . The best performance was found for a modified version of LSTM, called M-LSTM (winner model), to forecast the future trajectory of the pandemic in the mentioned countries. For this purpose, we collected the data from January 22 till July 30, 2020, for training, and from 1 August 2020 to 31 August 2020, for the testing phase. Through experimental results, the winner model achieved reasonably accurate predictions (MAPE, RMSE, NRMSE, and R 2 are 0.509, 458.12, 0.001624, and 0.99997, respectively). Furthermore, we stopped the training of the model on some dates related to main country actions to investigate the effect of country actions on predictions by the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]