Predicting the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera A.F. Reuss, 1927 in Iran (Reptiles: Squamata).

Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to climate change. Until now, 80 terrestrial snakes have been identified in Iran in which 16 are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose 11% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (2071- 2100SSP585). Results also showed that only around 8% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]