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The general warming trend of the planet cannot be denied (the average global air temperature has increased by approx. 0.85°C between 1880-2012 (IPCC, 2013). The direct consequence of this warming is an increase in extreme weather events and hence in climate risks. The monitoring and assessing precipitation, identifying the physical laws governing its course in order to be able to estimate and forecast it in the future is therefore of great interest nowadays. Using geostatistical spatial analysis methods, this paper aims at identifying the correlations between longitude and precipitation (due to the specificity of the European climate, given by the major influence of the western circulation) and then an estimation - using linear regression equations - of precipitation amounts depending on longitude. Two variables were calculated for the statistical analysis: the proportion of the mean number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm of the multiannual mean of precipitation days (≥0,1 mm) and the precipitation ratio between the mean precipitation quantities in summer, compared to those in winter (hereinafter referred to as summer/winter precipitation ratio). The geostatistical analysis carried out on a sample of 40 weather stations aligned from west-south-west to east-north-east argues the existence of a strong correlation between longitude and the multiannual mean of days with precipitation ≥10 mm and between longitude and the summer/winter precipitation ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The description and analysis of compound extremes affecting mid and high latitudes in the winter requires an accurate estimation of snowfall. Such variable is often missing for in-situ observations, and biased in climate model outputs, both in magnitude and number of events. While climate models can be adjusted using bias correction (BC), snowfall presents additional challenges compared to other variables, preventing from applying traditional univariate BC methods. We extend the existing literature on the estimation of the snowfall fraction from near-surface temperature, which usually involves binary thresholds or fitting parametric nonlinear functions. We show that, combining breakpoint search algorithms to define threshold temperatures and segmented regression models, it is possible to obtain accurate out-of-sample estimates of snowfall over Europe in ERA5 reanalysis, and to perform effective BC on the IPSL-WRF high resolution EURO-CORDEX climate model only relying on bias adjusted temperature and precipitation. This method offers a feasible way to reconstruct or adjust snowfall observations without requiring multivariate or conditional bias correction and stochastic generation of unobserved events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remarkable climate anomalies occurred in Europe in recent years, but the reasons are not entirely disclosed. This entails further exploring the physical mechanism of anomalous climate variability over Europe on the basis of previous studies. Using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and CMAP precipitation datasets, we investigated the relationship between the thermal condition of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and precipitation over Europe during summer and related mechanisms behind through observational analyses and simulation experiments. The results show that the summer TP surface air temperature (SAT) is significantly correlated with the simultaneous precipitation over the region from eastern Ukraine to the North Caucasus (EUNC; 43°–51° N, 34°–46° E) during the period 1979–2017. The effect of anomalous TP heating plays, to some extent, an active role in linking the summer TP SAT with EUNC precipitation. The variability of the TP SAT is a result of the anomalous TP heating, but it can reflect the variability in temperature of a thick tropospheric air column over the TP well. Corresponding to higher (lower) TP SAT, the higher (lower) temperature anomaly appears over the TP and extends westwards through the transport of anomalous temperature fluxes from the TP to the EUNC regions in the upper troposphere, resulting in the expansion (withdrawal) of the South Asian high (SAH) and associated less (more) precipitation over the EUNC region. Numerical simulations basically reproduce the above-mentioned physical process, which confirms that, through stimulating the variability of upper-tropospheric temperatures over the TP and a larger area to its west and associated upstream large-scale atmospheric circulation, the summer TP's thermal condition can modulate and expand the impact of the SAH to the EUNC region and therefore affect the concurrent precipitation in situ. This study implies an importance of the thermal anomaly of the TP to the variability of EUNC precipitation during summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In summer 2018, Europe experienced a record drought, but it remains unknown how the drought affected ecosystem carbon dynamics. Using observations from 34 eddy covariance sites in different biomes across Europe, we studied the sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to environmental drivers during the summer drought of 2018 versus the reference summer of 2016. We found a greater drought-induced decline of summer GPP in grasslands (−38%) than in forests (−10%), which coincided with reduced evapotranspiration and soil water content (SWC). As compared to the 'normal year' of 2016, GPP in different ecosystems exhibited more negative sensitivity to summer air temperature (Ta) but stronger positive sensitivity to SWC during summer drought in 2018, that is, a stronger reduction of GPP with soil moisture deficit. We found larger negative effects of Ta and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) but a lower positive effect of photosynthetic photon flux density on GPP in 2018 compared to 2016, which contributed to reduced summer GPP in 2018. Our results demonstrate that high temperature-induced increases in VPD and decreases in SWC aggravated drought impacts on GPP. This article is part of the theme issue 'Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: A progressive increase in air temperature is recognized as the most important mechanistic driver of species range shifts. However, only a few studies have simultaneously considered the influence of both extrinsic and intrinsic mechanistic drivers; there are still no studies on the roles of extrinsic and intrinsic drivers that regulate such species changes. We investigated how species will shift their geographical ranges to cope with future climate change and analysed the relative importance of the mechanistic drivers in governing species range shifts. Location: Sixteen countries in South, West and North Europe. Methods: We used ensemble species distribution models on the European continental scale to predict 105 odonate species in response to climate change in the future decades until 2080s under three emission scenarios. We evaluated the projected changes in four community metrics (distribution area, optimum position, leading edge and trailing edge) and investigated how these changes are driven by extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Results: The odonate species were predicted to shift their range margins poleward, with a higher migration rate towards the trailing edge (2.38‒10.34 km/year) than the leading edge (1.13‒2.00 km/year). Contrary to the assumption that the response of the odonate species to climate change will linearly accelerate over time, the distribution areas of odonate species were predicted to increase until 2050s and then decline until 2080s under RCP 2.6 (representative concentration pathway). However, their distributions under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were predicted to decrease over time, with a higher rate under RCP 8.5. Overall, environmental preference and habitat override dispersal ability govern the range shift of odonate species. Main conclusions: Quantifying the relative importance of extrinsic and intrinsic factors across a large spatial scale under different emission scenarios can help understand the mechanistic processes to facilitate species range shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates changes in seasonal runoff and low flows related to changes in snow and climate variables in mountainous catchments in Central Europe. The period 1966–2012 was used to assess trends in climate and streamflow characteristics using a modified Mann–Kendall test. Droughts were classified into nine classes according to key snow and climate drivers. The results showed an increase in air temperature, decrease in snowfall fraction and snow depth, and changes in precipitation. This resulted in increased winter runoff and decreased late spring runoff due to earlier snowmelt, especially at elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. Most of the hydrological droughts were connected to either low air temperatures and precipitation during winter or high winter air temperatures which caused below-average snow storages. Our findings show that, besides precipitation and air temperature, snow plays an important role in summer streamflow and drought occurrence in selected mountainous catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting atmospheric CO2 concentrations on synoptic timescales (∼ days) can benefit the planning of field campaigns by better predicting the location of important gradients. One aspect of this, accurately predicting the day-to-day variation in biospheric fluxes, poses a major challenge. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of using a diagnostic light-use-efficiency model, the Vegetation Photosynthesis Respiration Model (VPRM), to forecast biospheric CO2 fluxes on the timescale of a few days. As input, the VPRM model requires downward shortwave radiation, 2 m temperature, and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and land surface water index (LSWI), both of which are calculated from MODIS reflectance measurements. Flux forecasts were performed by extrapolating the model input into the future, i.e., using downward shortwave radiation and temperature from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, as well as extrapolating the MODIS indices to calculate future biospheric CO2 fluxes with VPRM. A hindcast for biospheric CO2 fluxes in Europe in 2014 has been done and compared to eddy covariance flux measurements to assess the uncertainty from different aspects of the forecasting system. In total the range-normalized mean absolute error (normalized) of the 5 d flux forecast at daily timescales is 7.1 %, while the error for the model itself is 15.9 %. The largest forecast error source comes from the meteorological data, in which error from shortwave radiation contributes slightly more than the error from air temperature. The error contribution from all error sources is similar at each flux observation site and is not significantly dependent on vegetation type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central European weather and climate are closely related to atmospheric mass advection triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a relevant index for quantifying internal climate variability on multi-annual timescales. It remains unclear, however, how large-scale circulation variability affects local climate characteristics when downscaled using a regional climate model. In this study, 50 members of a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (LE) of a nested regional climate model are analyzed for a NAO–climate relationship. The overall goal of the study is to assess whether the range of NAO internal variability is represented consistently between the driving global climate model (GCM; the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 – CanESM2) and the nested regional climate model (RCM; the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 – CRCM5). Responses of mean surface air temperature and total precipitation to changes in the NAO index value are examined in a central European domain in both CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE via Pearson correlation coefficients and the change per unit index change for historical (1981–2010) and future (2070–2099) winters. Results show that statistically robust NAO patterns are found in the CanESM2-LE under current forcing conditions. NAO flow pattern reproductions in the CanESM2-LE trigger responses in the high-resolution CRCM5-LE that are comparable to reanalysis data. NAO–response relationships weaken in the future period, but their inter-member spread shows no significant change. The results stress the value of single-model ensembles for the evaluation of internal variability by pointing out the large differences of NAO–response relationships among individual members. They also strengthen the validity of the nested ensemble for further impact modeling using RCM data only, since important large-scale teleconnections present in the driving data propagate properly to the fine-scale dynamics in the RCM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nearly every study dealing with temperature extremes underscores the lack of a universal and broadly used method of identifying such events. The most popular are relative methods, which are based on the empirical distribution of temperature at each location (i.e., percentiles). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of the various percentile-based methods of defining hot days on the analysis of their frequency of occurrence, trends, and geographic patterns in summer in Europe. The basis for the research consists of daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) values of air temperature for 1961–2017 for Europe obtained from the E-OBS database. A hot day occurs when air temperature exceeds the 90th percentile–based threshold. These thresholds are determined using the following: (I) various temperature metrics (TX and TN), (II) various baseline periods (1961–1990, 1971–2000, 1981–2010), and (III) different timeframes within the year that the percentile is calculated for (summer season, separate summer months, and each calendar day). Our results indicate that the use of different variants of the percentile-based definition leads to differences in the geographic patterns of frequencies of and trends in summer hot days in Europe. The differences are especially substantial within the results obtained using various temperature metrics and baseline periods, and they are relatively small when different timeframes within the year that the percentile is calculated for are considered. On the example of the case study, we also show how the use of different research approaches may affect the intensity and spatial extent of an extreme temperature event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate of east-central Europe (ECE) is the result of a combination of influences originating in the wider North Atlantic realm, the Mediterranean Sea, and the western Asian and Siberian regions. Previous studies have shown that the complex interplay between the large-scale atmospheric patterns across the region results in strongly dissimilar summer and winter conditions on timescales ranging from decades to millennia. To put these into a wider context, long-term climate reconstructions are required, but, largely due to historical reasons, these are lacking in ECE. We address these issues by presenting a high-resolution, radiocarbon-dated record of summer temperature variations during the last millennium in ECE, based on stable isotope analysis of a 4.84 m long ice core extracted from Focul Viu Ice Cave (Western Carpathians, Romania). Comparisons with both instrumental and proxy-based data indicate that the stable isotope composition of cave ice records the changes in summer air temperature and has a similar temporal evolution to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on decadal to multidecadal timescales, suggesting that changes in the North Atlantic are transferred, likely via atmospheric processes towards the wider Northern Hemisphere. On centennial timescales, the data show little summer temperature differences between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) in eastern Europe. These findings are contrary to those that show a marked contrast between the two periods in terms of both winter and annual air temperatures, suggesting that cooling during the LIA was primarily the result of wintertime climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the paper was the determination of the circulation conditions of occurrence of strong and very strong frost in Central Europe. A frost day was defined as a day with the minimum temperature lower than 0 °C and maximum temperature higher than 0 °C. Moreover, a division of frost was performed in terms of value of minimum temperature, resulting in the designation of mild frost (up to − 2.0 °C), moderate frost (from − 2.1 to − 4 °C), strong frost (from − 4.1 to − 6 °C) and very strong frost (< − 6 °C). The study was based on data from the years 1966–2015 from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute, Deutscher Wetterdienst and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR). The analysis of baric conditions employed values of pressure at sea level, height of isobaric surface of 500 hPa and air temperature at a level of 850 hPa, as well as their anomalies. The spatial analysis showed that the number of frost days in spring and autumn increased from the west to the east of Central Europe. A decrease in the number of frost days, however, is observed over the prevailing area. Average conditions favouring the occurrence of strong and very strong frost both in spring and autumn were related to higher than average pressure at sea level over the prevailing area of the Euro-Atlantic sector. Such baric conditions caused advections of cool air masses from the northern sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is a key indicator which drives ecosystem structure and function. Quantifying the impact of climate change on LSWT variations is thus of great significance. In this study, observed data of LSWT during the period 1969–2018 in a high mountain lake (Morskie Oko Lake, Central Europe) were analyzed. The results showed that the prominent warming of the LSWT and air temperature began around 1997. A logistic non-linear S-curve function was used to model monthly average LSWT. The non-linear model performed well to capture monthly average LSWT and air temperature relationships (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient 0.86 and the root mean squared error 1.63 °C). Using the 2009–2018 period as base scenario, a sensitivity analysis was conducted. The results showed that the annual mean LSWT will likely increase about + 1.29 °C and + 2.64 °C with air temperature increases of + 2 °C and + 4 °C respectively at the end of the twenty-first century. If realized, such a scenario will cause serious consequences on lake ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chornohora is the highest mountain ridge in the Ukrainian Carpathians with 6 peaks of an altitude over 2,000 m above sea level (Hoverla is the highest peak, 2,061 m a.s.l). Its climate is explored less than other mountain ridges in Europe. The massif is a climatic barrier for air masses on NW-SE line. To describe the climate of this area data from the weather station at Pozhyzhevska alpine meadow for the years 1961–2010 were used. The seasonal and long-term variability of air temperature, atmospheric precipitation and snow cover were investigated on the background of air circulation types. The results show that general features of Chornohora climate depend both, on elevation above sea level and on air circulation. Lowest temperature is observed at N-NE circulation and highest precipitation – at western air inflow. Long-term changes of examined climate elements in Chornohora show significant increase in mean (0.13°/10 years) and minimum (0.22°C/10 years) air temperature as well as in snow cover depth and number of snowy days. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Europe has experienced many extreme heat waves over the past few decades. In this study, the physical processes underlying these long-lasting and wide-ranging heat wave events are investigated based on a case study in Europe in June 2021. Heat waves are associated with barotropic anticyclonic anomalies accompanied by positive geopotential height anomalies locally. These anomalies persist under the conditions of increased meridional air temperature gradients of the mid–upper troposphere in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the formation of the Arctic front jet. The shrinking high-latitude snow cover in April–May favors higher surface temperatures and larger meridional temperature gradients in June in the mid–upper troposphere due to the soil moisture–evaporation–temperature positive feedback process. The summer Arctic front jet is then strengthened, and the mid-latitude westerly winds are weakened. This atmospheric circulation background favors waveguide formation and wave resonance that produces high-amplitude atmospheric waves and the stagnation of ridges in the mid-latitudes. Numerical experiments using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 verify the proposed physical mechanisms, with the climatic responses in sensitivity experiments to anomalous snowfall rates closely resembling the observational results. Therefore, in June 2021, under the identified atmospheric circulation background and the perturbation of the upstream positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the large-scale barotropic high pressure and barotropic anticyclonic circulation in the study region tended to be stable and persistent, which is favorable for the production of long-lasting and wide-ranging heat wave events. • Physical mechanisms underlying heat waves are investigated based on a case study in Europe in June 2021. • Shrinking Eurasian snow cover in spring favors the strengthened summer Arctic front jet that produces high-amplitude waves. • Upstream positive NAO in June 2021 favors a sequence of waves downstream and affect persistent anticyclone for heat waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central European weather and climate is closely related to atmospheric mass advection triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is a relevant index for quantifying natural variability on multi-annual time scales. It remains unclear, though, how large-scale circulation variability affects local climate characteristics when downscaled using a regional climate model. In this study, 50 members of a single-model initial-condition large ensemble (LE) (http://www.climex-project.org/) are analyzed for a climate-NAO relationship, especially its inter-member spread and its transfer from the driving model CanESM2 into the driven model CRCM5. The NAO pressure dipole is quantified in the CanESM2-LE by an extended station-based index; responses of mean surface air temperature and total precipitation to changes in the index value are determined for a Central European domain (CEUR) in both the CanESM2-LE and CRCM5-LE. NAO-response relationships are expressed via Pearson correlation coefficients (strength) and the change per unit index change for historical (1981-2010) and future (2070-2099) winters. Results show that (a) statistically robust NAO patterns are found in the CanESM2-LE under current forcing conditions and (b) impulses from the NAO in the CanESM2-LE produce correct responses in the high-resolution CRCM5-LE. Relationships weaken in the future period, but the amplitude of their inter-member spread shows no significant change. Among others, the results strengthen the validity of the climate module in the ClimEx model chain for further impact modelling and stress the importance of single-model ensembles for evaluating internal variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the research was to identify connections between the occurrence of heat load across Poland and large-scale factors, which will allow statistical models to be derived that are useful to describe bioclimatic conditions in Poland in the summer. Atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Ocean and Europe and near-surface air temperature over the central part of Europe were considered. The monthly frequency of the occurrence of combined "moderate, strong, very strong and extreme heat stress" based on the assessment scale of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) in the summer months accounted for 6% to more than 30% of all cases. The statistical downscaling procedure of canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with respect to the period 1971–2000 was applied to extract the main modes of large-scale factors and their local responses. The greatest explained variance of local field response to atmospheric circulation as well as to near-surface air temperature is above 70%. Warm air flow from the east and from the southeast has the strongest influence on the increase in frequency of the occurrence of heat stress on human beings in Poland. The spatial differentiation of the air temperature anomaly over central Europe is an important determinant of the occurrence of heat stress in Poland. The validation of constructed models encompassed the periods 1951–1970 and 2001–2010. The best reliability of results was reached for the reconstructed series in July. The results are less useful in June and August and in the coastal region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circulation in the mid-troposphere in moderate and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere can be characterised by the Vangenheim-Girs (VG) circulation macro-forms. The aim of the research was to analyse the VG macro-forms as a factor determining the general characteristics of the atmospheric circulation in mid-troposphere in the Euro-Atlantic region and low-troposphere airflow characteristics in the profile (zonal belt) crossing Central Europe from Ireland to Kazan in Russia (5°30'W–44°00'E). Alongside the VG macro-form calendar, ERA-INTERIM data were used. The utilised meteorological variables comprised 500hPa geopotential height, SLP and air temperature at 995 sigma level. The temporal scope of the research was 35 years (1981–2015) and the resolution was 24h (12.00 UTC). The circulation in the low-troposphere was characterised by the geostrophic wind vector characteristics directly resulting from SLP and air temperature fields. Subsequently, derived indices (e.g. wind direction stability) were used. The presented results indicate that the variability of anemological conditions at SLP in the area of 50–60°N over Europe is in direct connection with the mid-troposphere circulation features. The differences are statistically significant across nearly the entire research area. This includes the reversal of the dominant air flow direction in some areas. The greatest variability in geostrophic wind characteristics due to W, E and C VG macro-forms is revealed in the central and eastern part of the 50–60°N zone – between the southern Baltic Sea and the western border of Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the differences and similarities of Eurasian cold air outbreaks (CAOs) under the weak (CAOW), strong (CAOS), and neutral (CAON) stratospheric polar vortex states and examines the potential links between the polar vortex and Eurasian CAOs. The results indicate that the colder surface air temperature (SAT) over Europe in the earlier stages of CAOW events is likely because the amplitude of the preexisting negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern is larger in CAOW events than in CAON and CAOS events. Marked by the considerably negative stratospheric Arctic Oscillation signals entering the troposphere, the SAT at midlatitudes over eastern Eurasia in CAOW events is colder than in CAON events. A larger diabatic heating rate related to a positive sensible heat flux anomaly in CAOW events likely offsets, to some degree, the cooling effect caused by the stronger cold advection and makes the differences in area-averaged SAT anomalies over northern Eurasia between the CAOW and CAON events look insignificant in most stages. Massive anomalous waves from the low-latitude western Pacific merge over northeastern Eurasia, then weaken the westerly wind over this region to create favorable conditions for southward advection of cold air masses in the earlier stages of all three types of CAOs. This study further analyzes the interannual relationship between the stratospheric polar vortex strength and the intensity of Eurasian CAOs and finds that climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) relative to the reanalysis dataset tend to underestimate the correlation between them. The relationship between them is strengthening under representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios over the period 2006–60. In addition, the intensity of Eurasian CAOs exhibits a decreasing trend in the past and in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents the Guadalfeo Monitoring Network in Sierra Nevada (Spain), a snow monitoring network in the Guadalfeo Experimental Catchment, a semiarid area in southern Europe representative of snowpacks with highly variable dynamics on both annual and seasonal scales and significant topographic gradients. The network includes weather stations that cover the high mountain area in the catchment and time-lapse cameras to capture the variability of the ablation phases on different spatial scales. The data sets consist of continuous meteorological high-frequency records at five automatic weather stations located at different altitudes ranging from 1300 to 2600 m a.s.l. that include precipitation, air temperature, wind speed, air relative humidity and the short- and longwave components of the incoming radiation, dating from 2004 for the oldest station (2510 m a.s.l.) (10.1594/PANGAEA.895236); additionally, daily data sets of the imagery from two time-lapse cameras are presented, with different scene area (30 m × 30 m, and 2 km 2 , respectively) and spatial resolution, that consist of fractional snow cover area and snow depth from 2009 (10.1594/PANGAEA.871706) and snow cover maps for selected dates from 2011 (10.1594/PANGAEA.898374). Some research applications of these data sets are also included to highlight the value of high-resolution data sources to improve the understanding of snow processes and distribution in highly variable environments. The data sets are available from different open-source sites and provide both the snow hydrology scientific community and other research fields, such as terrestrial ecology, riverine ecosystems or water quality in high mountains, with valuable information of high potential in snow-dominated areas in semiarid regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cyclic volatile methylsiloxanes (cVMS) and short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) use has been restricted in recent years due to environmental health concerns. Both of these classes of emerging contaminants possess long range transport potential (LRTP), highlighting the need for continuous monitoring to assess effectiveness of implemented regulations. However, emission source elucidation and understanding processes affecting atmospheric transport remain challenging. Atmospheric levels of cVMSs and SCCPs were simultaneously monitored at a background monitoring site in Norway from January–July 2020. Concentrations obtained from active air samplers ranged from 49.9 to 845 (mean: 208) pg/m3 for ƩSCCPs and from 0.4 to 3.5 (mean: 1.5), 1.1–15 (mean: 5.6) and 0.1–0.9 (mean: 0.4) ng/m3 for octamethylcyclotetrasiloxane (D4), decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) and dodecamethylcyclohexasiloxane (D6), respectively. As SCCPs pose several challenges to analysts, different quantification methodologies and blank handling procedures were investigated to ensure reliable environmental measurements. Simulations using a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model (FLEXPART) revealed air masses impacting sampling measurements were of Oceanic origin, but periodic emission events from Europe and Russia were also observed. Seasonal pattern in cVMS concentrations was mainly driven by atmospheric degradation via hydroxyl radical reaction, whereas SCCP concentrations were more influenced by periodic anthropogenic inputs from local and continental Europe. No clear correlation could be observed with SCCP atmospheric concentrations and temperature over the entire sampling campaign. However, increased volatilization at elevated temperatures may be important with emissions originating from local sources. Higher chlorinated homologue groups dominated during the winter season and declined towards spring and summer, whereas reverse was found for the lower and more volatile chlorinated homologue groups. [Display omitted] • LRT of cVMS primarily driven by seasonal atmospheric degradation. • SCCP LRT primarily driven by anthropogenic inputs from continental Europe. • Seasonal changes in SCCP composition pattern were observed. • Proper quantification and blank handling procedures crucial for reporting SCCP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of the presented investigation was to determine the effect of the air thermal conditions variability on cow's milking performance in summer in a moderate climate. The analyses covered the summer months of 2012-2013 (June-September) and shorter, several-day periods characterized by the times of elevated or high air temperatures and by the declines and increases in milking performance. The research was conducted in a free stall barn for Holstein-Friesian cows. The study showed that the thermoneutral temperature for high yielding cows decreases gradually with the registered increasingly warmer summer periods. The decreases in milk yield already commence at an air temperature equal to 20°C and also depend on the dairy cattle sensitivity. July and August, with a high number of hot days, caused that in September the cows responded faster to a worsening of thermal conditions and the decline in milking performance happened almost simultaneously with the air temperature change, at milking yield recovery after the period of 3-4 d (r=-0.84, P<0.04). The percent duration in the individual temperature ranges which caused a decrease of milk yield was also determined. In June, and at the beginning of July, this was 90% of the time with temperatures above 20°C, and simultaneously 45% above 25°C occurred to milking performance decrease (r=-0.89, P<0.02). In September, this was only 30% of the time with temperatures above 20°C (r=-0.91, P<0.01). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Snow plays a critical role in the water cycle of many mountain regions and heavily populated areas downstream. In this study, changes of snow water equivalent (SWE) time series from long-term stations in five Alpine countries are analyzed. The sites are located between 500 and 3000 m above mean sea level, and the analysis is mainly based on measurement series from 1 February (winter) and 1 April (spring). The investigation was performed over different time periods, including the last six decades. The large majority of the SWE time series demonstrate a reduction in snow mass, which is more pronounced for spring than for winter. The observed SWE decrease is independent of latitude or longitude, despite the different climate regions in the Alpine domain. In contrast to measurement series from other mountain ranges, even the highest sites revealed a decline in spring SWE. A comparison with a 100-yr mass balance series from a glacier in the central Alps demonstrates that the peak SWEs have been on a record-low level since around the beginning of the twenty-first century at high Alpine sites. In the long term, clearly increasing temperatures and a coincident weak reduction in precipitation are the main drivers for the pronounced snow mass loss in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mediterranean ecosystems are significant carbon sinks but are also particularly sensitive to climate change but the carbon dynamic in such ecosystem is still not fully understood. An improved understanding of the drivers of the carbon fixation by plants is needed to better predict how such ecosystems will respond to climate change. Here, for the first time, a large dataset collected through the FLUXNET network is used to estimate how the gross primary production (GPP) of different Mediterranean ecosystems was affected by air temperature and precipitation between the years 1996 and 2013. We showed that annual precipitation was not a significant driver of annual GPP. Our results also indicated that seasonal variations of air temperature significantly affected seasonal variations of GPP but without major impact on inter annual variations. Inter-annual variations of GPP seemed largely controlled by the precipitation during early spring (March-April), making this period crucial for the future of Mediterranean ecosystems. Finally, we also observed that the sensitivity of GPP in Mediterranean ecosystems to climate drivers is not ecosystem type dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter (October to March) precipitation δ18OP and δDP values in central Europe correlate with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (wNAOi), but the causal mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here we analyse the relationships between precipitation-weighted δ18OP and δDP datasets (δ18Opw and δDpw) from European GNIP and ANIP stations and the wNAOi, with a focus on isotope gradients. We demonstrate that longitudinal δ18Opw and δDpw gradients across Europe ("continental effect") depend on the wNAOi state, with steeper gradients associated with more negative wNAOi states. Changing gradients reflect a combination of air temperature and variable amounts of precipitable water as a function of the wNAOi. The relationships between the wNAOi, δ18Opw and δDpw can provide additional information from palaeoclimate archives such as European speleothems that primarily record winter δ18Opw. Comparisons between present-day and past European longitudinal δ18O gradients inferred from Holocene speleothems suggest that atmospheric pressure configurations akin to negative wNAO modes dominated the early Holocene, whereas patterns resembling positive wNAO modes were more common in the late Holocene, possibly caused by persistent shifts in the relative locations of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to present the development and evaluation of neural network based identification algorithms for the prediction of outdoor air temperature using acquired data from four European cities (Ancona – Italy, Chania – Greece, Granada – Spain and Mollet – Spain). Different neural network topologies (feed forward, cascade and elman) have been tested to identify the most suitable for each city. The efficiency of the prediction is validated by comparing predicted and measured outdoor air temperature. Furthermore, statistical tools such as R 2 , and root mean square error (rmse) are used to evaluate the annual performance of the neural network. The comparison of measured and predicted outdoor air temperature ( R 2 > 0.9, rmse <2 °C) confirms the accurate training of the neural network for all four European cities. All work has been contacted using Matlab's environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future anthropogenic climate change is likely to increase the air temperature ( T) across Europe and increase the frequency, duration and magnitude of severe heat stress events. Heat stress events are generally associated with clear-sky conditions and high T, which give rise to high radiant heat load, i.e. mean radiant temperature ( T). In urban environments, T is strongly influenced by urban geometry. The present study examines the effect of urban geometry on daytime heat stress in three European cities (Gothenburg in Sweden, Frankfurt in Germany and Porto in Portugal) under present and future climates, using T as an indicator of heat stress. It is found that severe heat stress occurs in all three cities. Similar maximum daytime T is found in open areas in all three cities despite of the latitudinal differences in average daytime T. In contrast, dense urban structures like narrow street canyons are able to mitigate heat stress in the summer, without causing substantial changes in T in the winter. Although the T averages are similar for the north-south and east-west street canyons in each city, the number of hours when T exceeds the threshold values of 55.5 and 59.4 °C-used as indicators of moderate and severe heat stress-in the north-south canyons is much higher than that in the east-west canyons. Using statistically downscaled data from a regional climate model, it is found that the study sites were generally warmer in the future scenario, especially Porto, which would further exacerbate heat stress in urban areas. However, a decrease in solar radiation in Gothenburg and Frankfurt reduces T in the spring, while the reduction in T is somewhat offset by increasing T in other seasons. It suggests that changes in the T under the future scenario are dominated by variations in T. Nonetheless, the intra-urban differences remain relatively stable in the future. These findings suggest that dense urban structure can reduce daytime heat stress since it reduces the number of hours of high T in the summer and does not cause substantial changes in average and minimum T in the winter. In dense urban settings, a more diverse urban thermal environment is also preferred to compensate for reduced solar access in the winter. The extent to which the urban geometry can be optimized for the future climate is also influenced by local urban characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of biogenic emissions on ozone and PM 2.5 levels over Europe is assessed using CMAQ. Biogenic emissions are predicted to increase Max8hrO 3 mixing ratios by 5.7% and to decrease PM 2.5 concentrations by 1.9%, increasing PM 2.5 _ OC by 13.6% and decreasing PM 2 . 5 _SO 4 , PM 2 . 5 _NO 3 and PM 2 . 5 _NH 4 by 5.6%, 3.7% and 5.6%, respectively, on average over Europe due to their interactions with anthropogenic emissions. A suite of perturbations in temperature is imposed individually on the base case conditions in order to determine the sensitivities to air temperature changes. Temperature increases of 1, 2 or 3° K suggest an average increase in Max8hrO 3 mixing ratios of 0.9%, 1.8% or 2.9%, respectively, and an average decrease in daily average PM 2.5 concentrations of 2.5%, 4.2% and 5.8%, respectively, increasing PM 2.5 _ OC and decreasing PM 2 . 5 _SO 4 , PM 2 . 5 _NO 3 and PM 2 . 5 _NH 4 component concentrations on average over Europe. In order to examine if abatement measures for anthropogenic emissions could offset ozone increases in higher temperatures and their effect on PM 2.5 concentrations, a simulation with a domain wide reduction in anthropogenic NO x emissions of 10% is performed. This is estimated to reduce Max8hrO 3 mixing ratios by 1.3% on average over Europe. However, NO x reduction is estimated to increase Max8hrO 3 in VOCs limited areas. The reduction in anthropogenic NO x emissions is predicted to reduce PM 2.5 concentrations by 1.0% enhancing the reduction simulated, here, with temperature increase but further modifying PM 2.5 component concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pyhäsalmi mine, central Finland, has operated as a deep metal mine since 1967. It currently reaches a depth of almost 1500 m, making it the deepest mining operation in Europe. Around 900,000 m 3 of metal-rich, extremely acidic water are pumped out of the mine each year. The near constant air temperature of ∼24 °C together with exposure of sulfidic rock surfaces to air and water, have created an environment that is highly suitable for colonization by acidophilic mineral-oxidizing microorganisms. Using a combined cultivation-dependent and molecular approach, indigenous bacteria in waters at two depths within the mine, and of an acid streamer sample were identified and isolated. Iron-oxidizing chemolithotrophs ( Acidithiobacillus and Leptospirillum spp., and “ Ferrovum myxofaciens ” were the most abundant bacteria in mine water samples, whereas the acid streamer community contained a greater proportion of heterotrophic acidophiles ( Ferrimicrobium acidiphilum and a gammaproteobacterium related to Metallibacterium scheffleri ). The most abundant isolates obtained from both water and streamer samples were all strains of Acidithiobacillus Group IV, a proposed separate species of iron-oxidizing acidithiobacilli that has not yet been classified as such. Archaea were also detected in water and streamer samples using molecular methods, but most were not identified and no isolates were obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [ • ] Soil samples represented a range of pedo-climatic conditions, across Europe. [•] Pre-incubation temperatures were tested for soil basal respiration. [ • ] Pre-incubation conditions did not affect initial rate of basal respiration. [ • ] Experimental incubation temperatures were evaluated for soil basal respiration. [•] Results were most consistent at experimental incubation temp of 20°C and 25°C. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

ERA5 is widely considered as a valid proxy of observation at region scales. Surface air temperature from the E-OBS database and 196 meteorological stations across Europe are being applied for evaluation of the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis ERA5 temperature data in the period of 1981–2010. In general, ERA5 captures the mean and extreme temperatures very well and ERA5 is reliable for climate investigation over Europe. High correlations ranging from 0.995 to 1.000 indicate that ERA5 could capture the annual cycle very well. However, the high mean biases and high Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for some European sub-regions (e.g., the Alps, the Mediterranean) reveal that ERA5 underestimates temperatures. The biases can be mainly attributed to the altitude differences between ERA5 grid points and stations. Comparing ERA5 with the other two datasets, ERA5 temperature presents more extreme temperature and small outliers for regions southern of 40° latitude and less extreme temperatures in areas over the Black Sea. In Scandinavia, ERA5 temperatures are more frequently extreme than the observational ones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional climate change affects the state of inland water bodies and their water balance, which is determined by a number of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological factors. An integral characteristic of changes in the water balance is the behavior of the level of lakes and reservoirs, which not only largely determines the physical and ecological state of water bodies, but also significantly affects the coastal infrastructure and socio-economic development of the region. This paper investigates the interannual variability of the level of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, the largest lakes in Europe located in the northwest of Russia, according to satellite altimetry data for 1993–2020. For this purpose, we used three specialized altimetry databases: DAHITI, G-REALM, and HYDROWEB. Water level data from these altimetry databases were compared with in-situ records at water level gauge stations. Information on air temperature (1945–2019) and precipitation (1966–2019) acquired at three meteostations located at Ladoga and Onega lakes was used to investigate interannual trends in the regional climate change. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the lake level rise and regional climate warming on the infrastructure and operability of railways in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on exceptionally hot summers (EHS) as a manifestation of contemporary climate warming. The study identifies EHS occurrences in Central and Eastern Europe and describes the characteristic features of the region's thermal conditions. Average air temperatures in June, July and August were considered, as well as the number of days with maximum temperatures exceeding 25, 30 and 35 °C, and with a minimum temperature greater than >20 °C, as recorded at 59 weather stations in 1951-2010. Extremely hot summers are defined as having an average temperature equal to or greater than the long-term average plus 2 SD. A calendar of EHSs was compiled and their spatial extent identified. The region experienced 12 EHSs, which occurred in a given year at 5 % or more stations (1972, 1981, 1988, 1992, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2007 and 2010). The EHS frequency of occurrence was found to be clearly on an increase. Indeed, only one EHS occurred during the first 30 years, but these occurred five times during the last 10 years of the study period. Their geographical extent varied both in terms of location and size. EHSs were observed at 57 out of the total of 59 weather stations in the study (the exceptions were Pecora and Cluj). The average air temperature of EHSs tended to exceed the relevant long-term average by 2-4 °C. The summer of 2010 was among the hottest (temperature anomaly 5.5-6 °C) and spatially largest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A 9 yr air quality simulation is conducted from 2000 to 2008 over Europe using the Polyphemus/Polair3D chemical-transport model (CTM) and then evaluated against the measurements of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP). The spatial distribution of PM2.5 over Europe shows high concentrations over northern Italy (36 µgm-3) and some areas of Eastern Europe, France, and Benelux, and low concentrations over Scandinavia, Spain, and the easternmost part of Europe. PM2.5 composition differs among regions. The operational evaluation shows satisfactory model performance for ozone (O3). PM2.5, PM10, and sulfate (SO=4 ) meet the performance goal of Boylan and Russell (2006). Nitrate (NO-3 ) and ammonium (NH+4 ) are overestimated, although NH+4 meets the performance criterion. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed data are 63% for O3, 57% for PM10, 59% for PM2.5, 57% for SO=4, 42% for NO-3, and 58% for NH+4 . The comparison with other recent 1 yr model simulations shows that all models overestimate nitrate. The performance of PM2.5, sulfate, and ammonium is comparable to that of the other models. The dynamic evaluation shows that the response of PM2.5 to changes in meteorology differs depending on location and the meteorological variable considered. Wind speed and precipitation show a strong negative day-to-day correlation with PM2.5 and its components (except for sea salt, which shows a positive correlation), which tends towards 0 as the day lag increases. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient is near constant for temperature, for any day lag and PM2.5 species, but it may be positive or negative depending on the species and, for sulfate, depending on the location. The effects of precipitation and wind speed on PM2.5 and its components are better reproduced by the model than the effects of temperature This is mainly due to the fact that temperature has different effects on the PM2.5 components, unlike precipitation and wind speed, which impact most of the PM2.5 components in the same way. These results suggest that state-of-the-science air quality models reproduce satisfactorily the effect of meteorology on PM2.5 and therefore are suitable to investigate the effects of climate change on particulate air quality, although uncertainties remain concerning semivolatile PM2.5 components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

PMCAMx-2008, a three dimensional chemical transport model (CTM), was applied in Europe to quantify the changes in fine particle (PM2.5) concentration in response to different emission reductions as well as to temperature increase. A summer and a winter simulation period were used, to investigate the seasonal dependence of the PM2.5 response to 50% reductions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), ammonia (NH3), nitrogen oxides (NOx), anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and anthropogenic primary organic aerosol (POA) emissions and also to temperature increases of 2.5 and 5 K. Reduction of NH3 emissions seems to be the most effective control strategy for reducing PM2.5, in both periods, resulting in a decrease of PM2.5 up to 5.1 μgm.3 and 1.8 μgm.3 (5.5% and 4% on average) during summer and winter respectively, mainly due to reduction of ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3) (20% on average in both periods). The reduction of SO2 emissions decreases PM2.5 in both periods having a significant effect over the Balkans (up to 1.6 μgm.3) during the modeled summer period, mainly due to decrease of sulfate (34% on average over the Balkans). The anthropogenic POA control strategy reduces total OA by 15% during the modeled winter period and 8% in the summer period. The reduction of total OA is higher in urban areas close to its emissions sources. A slight decrease of OA (8% in the modeled summer period and 4% in the modeled winter period) is also predicted after a 50% reduction of VOCs emissions due to the decrease of anthropogenic SOA. The reduction of NOx emissions reduces PM2.5 (up to 3.4 μgm.3) during the summer period, due to a decrease of NH4NO3, causing although an increase of ozone concentration in major urban areas and over Western Europe. Additionally, the NOx control strategy actually increases PM2.5 levels during the winter period, due to more oxidants becoming available to react with SO2 and VOCs. The increase of temperature results in a decrease of PM2.5 in both periods over Central Europe, mainly due to a decrease of NH4NO3 during summer (18 %) and fresh POA during wintertime (35 %). Significant increases of OA are predicted during the summer due mainly to the increase of biogenic VOC emissions. On the contrary, OA is predicted to decrease in the modeled winter period due to the dominance of fresh POA reduction and the small biogenic SOA contribution to OA. The resulting increase of oxidant levels from the temperature rise lead to an increase of sulfate levels in both periods, mainly over North Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. The substantial reduction of PM2.5 components due to emissions reductions of their precursors outlines the importance of emissions for improving air quality, while the sensitivity of PM2.5 concentrations to temperature changes indicate that climate interactions need to be considered when predicting future levels of PM, with different net effects in different parts of Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric measurements over 5 years (2005-2010) at two sites in Łódź, central Poland have been analyzed to develop a better understanding of turbulence in urban areas. Fast response wind velocity, temperature, humidity and CO concentration were measured using sonic anemometers and gas analyzers, placed on narrow masts at 37 and 42 m above the ground. The measurements were used to calculate standard deviations of each parameter, and were then normalized according to local Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and plotted as a function of stability parameter ζ = z′/ L. Results for the wind components show typical scaling with a power law with exponent ±1/3 in the free convection limit, and that approaches a constant value close to neutral stratification. For stable conditions, the constant value in the neutral limit remains the same for stability parameters lower than 0.1-0.2, then increases. The normalized standard deviation of temperature fits the −1/3 law in the free convection limit, approaching a constant value within a stable limit. However, it exhibits hyperbolic characteristics for close to neutral stratification. The normalized standard deviations for humidity and CO concentration exhibit scaling similar to the wind components in the unstable regime and remain constant in the stable domain. The results for the wind components and for temperature are in the range of various functions found in other studies. The absolute values for humidity and CO concentration seem to be slightly higher, but only single examples of such investigations can be found in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use the dynamical method to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of ammonia emissions across part of Europe and study how these emissions are related to geographical and year-to-year variations in atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus on the emission from a storage facility related to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20 % for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France. (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0-4-0 % in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK and France) can be reduced by using a dynamical methodology for calculating emissions. Acting together these four factors can cause substantial uncertainties in emission. Emissions are generally considered among the largest uncertainties in the model calculations made with CTM and CCM models. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are therefore highly relevant. It is therefore recommended that both CCMs and CTMs implement a dynamical methodology for simulating ammonia emissions in a similar way as for biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOCs) - a method that has been used for more than a decade in CTMs. Finally, the climate penalty on ammonia emissions should be taken into account at the policy level such as the NEC and IPPC directives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The longest six instrumental temperature records of monthly means reach back maximally to 1757AD and were recorded in Europe. All six show a V-shape, with temperature drop in the 19th and rise in the 20th century. Proxy temperature time series of Antarctic ice cores show this same characteristic shape, indicating this pattern as a global phenomenon. We used the mean of the six instrumental records for analysis by discrete Fourier transform (DFT), wavelets, and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). For comparison, a stalagmite record was also analyzed by DFT. The harmonic decomposition of the abovementioned mean shows only six significant frequencies above periods over 30 yr. The Pearson correlation between the mean, smoothed by a 15-yr running average (boxcar) and the reconstruction using the six significant frequencies, yields r = 0.961. This good agreement has a > 99.9% confidence level confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. It shows that the climate dynamics is governed at present by periodic oscillations. We find indications that observed periodicities result from intrinsic dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The heat of summer 2003 in Western and Central Europe was claimed to be unprecedented since the Middle Ages on the basis of grape harvest data (GHD) and late wood maximum density (MXD) data from trees in the Alps. This paper shows that the authors of these studies overlooked the fact that the heat and drought in Switzerland in 1540 likely exceeded the amplitude of the previous hottest summer of 2003, because the persistent temperature and precipitation anomaly in that year, described in an abundant and coherent body of documentary evidence, severely affected the reliability of GHD and tree-rings as proxy-indicators for temperature estimates. Spring-summer (AMJJ) temperature anomalies of 4.7 ℃ to 6.8 ℃ being significantly higher than in 2003 were assessed for 1540 from a new long Swiss GHD series (1444 to 2011). During the climax of the heat wave in early August the grapes desiccated on the vine, which caused many vine-growers to interrupt or postpone the harvest despite full grape maturity until after the next spell of rain. Likewise, the leaves of many trees withered and fell to the ground under extreme drought stress as would usually be expected in late autumn. It remains to be determined by further research whether and how far this result obtained from local analyses can be spatially extrapolated. Based on the temperature estimates for Switzerland it is assumed from a great number of coherent qualitative documentary evidence about the outstanding heat drought in 1540 that AMJJ temperatures were likely more extreme in neighbouring regions of Western and Central Europe than in 2003. Considering the significance of soil moisture deficits for record breaking heat waves, these results still need to be validated with estimated seasonal precipitation. It is concluded that biological proxy data may not properly reveal record breaking heat and drought events. Such assessments thus need to be complemented with the critical study of contemporary evidence from documentary sources which provide coherent and detailed data about weather extremes and related impacts on human, ecological and social systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we compare annual fluxes of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and soil respiratory carbon dioxide (CO2) measured at nine European peatlands (n = 4) and shrublands (n = 5). The sites range from northern Sweden to Spain, covering a span in mean annual air temperature from 0 to 16 °C, and in annual precipitation from 300 to 1300mmyr-1. The effects of climate change, including temperature increase and prolonged drought, were tested at five shrubland sites. At one peatland site, the long-term (>30 yr) effect of drainage was assessed, while increased nitrogen deposition was investigated at three peatland sites. The shrublands were generally sinks for atmospheric CH4, whereas the peatlands were CH4 sources, with fluxes ranging from --519 to +6890 mgCH4-Cm-2 yr-1 across the studied ecosystems. At the peatland sites, annual CH4 emission increased with mean annual air temperature, while a negative relationship was found between net CH4 uptake and the soil carbon stock at the shrubland sites. Annual N2O fluxes were generally small ranging from --14 to 42 mgN2O-Nm-2 yr-1. Highest N2O emission occurred at the sites that had highest nitrate (NO3-) concentration in the soil water. Furthermore, experimentally increased NO3- deposition led to increased N2O efflux, whereas prolonged drought and long-term drainage reduced the N2O ef- flux. Soil CO2 emissions in control plots ranged from 310 to 732 gCO2-Cm-2 yr-1. Drought and long-term drainage generally reduced the soil CO2 efflux, except at a hydric shrubland where drought tended to increase soil respiration. In terms of fractional importance of each greenhouse gas to the total numerical global warming response, the change in CO2 efflux dominated the response in all treatments (ranging 71--96 %), except for NO3- addition where 89% was due to change in CH4 emissions. Thus, in European peatlands and shrublands the effect on global warming induced by the investigated anthropogenic disturbances will be dominated by variations in soil CO2 fluxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A simulation of the last millennium is compared to a recent spatio-temporal reconstruction of summer temperature over Europe. The focus is on the response to solar forcing over the pre-industrial era. Although the correlation between solar forcing and the reconstruction remains small, the spatial regression over solar forcing shows statistically significant regions. The meridional pattern of this regression is found to be similar in the model and in the reconstruction. This pattern exhibits a large warming over Northern and Mediterranean Europe and a lesser amplitude response over Central and Eastern Europe. The mechanisms explaining this pattern in the simulation are mainly related to evapotranspiration fluxes. It is shown that the evapotranspiration is larger in summer over Central and Eastern Europe when solar forcing increases, while it decreases over the Mediterranean area. The explanation for the evapotranspiration increase over Central and Eastern Europe is found in the increase of winter precipitation there, leading to a soil moisture increase in spring. As a consequence, the evapotranspiration is larger in summer, which leads to an increase in cloud cover over this region, reducing the surface shortwave flux there and leading to less warming. Over the Mediterranean area, the surface shortwave flux increases with solar forcing, the soil becomes dryer and the evapotranspiration is reduced in summer leading to a larger increase in temperature. This effect appears to be overestimated in the model as compared to the reconstruction. Finally, the warming of Northern Europe is related to the albedo feedback due to sea-ice cover retreat with increasing solar forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, subjects such as eco-design requirements, product rating or code compliance with regard to energy efficiency are expanding towards a pan-European level. This leads to the necessity of defining zones within the European region, which share common climatic characteristics and will further facilitate the quick estimation of building energy performance. Towards this direction stands the current paper; it presents an approach for defining climatic zones in Europe on the basis of the amount of heating and cooling degree days. It is applied for the climate classification of selected European cities and is compared with the conventional scheme based solely on heating degree days. Since the approach is orientated mainly towards the assessment of building energy performance, its outcomes are evaluated with regard to the actual heating and cooling energy needs of a reference building unit with office use located in representative cities of the proposed climatic zones and facing the four cardinal orientations. The classification of climatic zones on the basis of both heating and cooling degree days leads to more realistic results, since nowadays cooling needs form a substantial part of the energy balance of the building, especially in the Mediterranean regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A few concurrent and/or counteracting factors (increase of average air temperature, rainfall shortage, drought, CO2 enrichment, ozone, nitrogen fertilization, sulphate deposition) drive today the soil-tree-atmosphere relationships in the Mediterranean area. Radial stem growth measured within the ICPForests level II Italian network provides a sensitive response to these occurrences. Climate fluctuations and repeated anomalous seasons or extreme events are the major evidences of the change in progress. The 2003 heat wave is the main event occurred in this decade over large part of Europe. In Italy, it provoked a marked water deficit coupled to high air temperature, which resulted in a heavy water stress. The growth performance in different forest types was analyzed in this paper: growth rate in 2000-2004, compared with 1997- 1999, showed reductions up to 50% on half of the plots examined. Most of them were: (i) in northern-central Italy within the southern continental border of the climatic deviation; (ii) at low elevation, which is more sensitive to high air temperature and drought; (iii) made up of deciduous broadleaved forests (beech and oaks), i.e., species showing growth effects also in the following year. Over the time-window 2005-2009, a significant growth decrease was vice-versa detected within the coniferous spruce forests located at medium- high elevation in the Alps. Repeated seasonal deviations in temperature and rainfall were recorded in the Alps in 2005-2009. Climate effects at local scale were examined in a site where two oak species with a different auto-ecology (sessile oak and Turkey oak) grow together. The on-going change produced heavy mortality and reduced the growth of the more demanding and less drought-tolerant sessile oak; in a few years Turkey oak became prevailing in the stand composition and structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this study, we apply for the first time the definition of a derecho (Johns and Hirt, 1987) to European cold-season convective storm systems. These occurred on 18 January 2007 and 1 March 2008, respectively, and they are shown to fulfill the criteria of a derecho. Damaging winds were reported over a distance of 1500km and locally reached F3 intensity. Synoptic analysis for the events reveal strongly forced situations that have been described for cold-season derechoes in the United States. A comparison of swaths of damaging winds, radar structures, detected lightning, cold pool development, and cloud-top temperatures indicates that both derechoes formed along cold fronts that were affected by strong quasi-geostrophic forcing. It seems that the overlap of the cold front position with the strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection at the cyclonic flank of mid-level jet streaks favoured intense convection and high winds. The movement and path width of the two derechoes seemed to be related to this overlap. The wind gust intensity that was also different for both events is discussed and could be related to the component of the mid-level winds perpendicular to the gust fronts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reprod°Ction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0°C isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006 was associated with temperatures close to 0°C. The analysis suggests a significant spatial and temporal association of outbreaks caused by HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds with maximum surface air temperatures of 0°C-2°C on the day of the outbreaks and the two preceding days. At locations where waterbird census data have been collected since 1990, maximum mallard counts occurred when average and maximum surface air temperatures were 0°C and 3°C, respectively. Overall, the abundance of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and common pochards (Aythya ferina) was highest when surface air temperatures were lower than the mean temperatures of the region investigated. The analysis implies that waterbird movements associated with cold weather, and congregation of waterbirds along the 0°C isotherm likely contributed to the spread and geographical distribution of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds in Europe during the winter of 2005-2006. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much progress has recently been made in reconstructing European temperature variability over centuries to millennia. In contrast, there are only a few attempts at long-term precipitation and/or drought reconstruction, which are spatially less significant. Here we discuss the possibility of using climate reconstructions from tree-ring density and width to make spatially explicit estimates of European temperature and drought variability, respectively. Four experiments were performed to assess spatial field correlations of (1) parameter-specific mean reconstructions, (2) individual site reconstructions, (3) instrumental stations, and (4) model analogues. The simple mean of 4 temperature reconstructions from northern Scandinavia and high-elevation sites in the Tatra, Alps, and Pyrenees revealed a significant positive correlation (r > 0.4) with the gridded Central European summer temperature south of 55° N and west of 25° E. In contrast, the mean of 11 hydro-climatic reconstructions located between Sweden and Turkey had a significant positive correlation with only a handful of small patches scattered along an east-west corridor from the British Isles over Germany to the Baltic. The significant positive correlation increased to 71% of the European landmass between 35-70° N and 10° W 40° E when using the individual 4 temperature reconstructions instead. The 11 individual hydro-climatic reconstructions had a significant positive correlation with summer drought over only 16% of the area. The proxy-based correlation fields are greatly supported by the spatial significance of instrumental station measurements and model analogues corresponding to the initial tree-ring site locations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We took daily near-surface air temperature data from across Europe to calculate a series of 12 biologically relevant temperature summaries. Mean values for two 30 yr periods, 1941-1970 and 1971-2000, were compared and rates of change calculated for those meteorological stations with sufficient data. We generated contour maps for these temperature summaries for both 30 yr periods and for the difference between them; we believe these are the first such maps for over a century. Change was most pronounced and most consistent in those variables describing the onset of spring. Between 1971 and 2000, the thermal start of the growing season began on average 0.36 d yr-1 earlier and ended 0.10 d yr-1 later, suggesting an 11 d earlier beginning and 3 d later end of the growing season over the 30 yr period. For all but one of the temperature summaries, change has accelerated in recent time; however, change was not uniform across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law) persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examines two methods for classification of daily pressure-pattern sequences (extended PCA and extended cluster analysis) and evaluates whether sequence classification is more suitable to describe surface air-temperature conditions in Europe. For this purpose, sequences of daily sea-level pressure fields are classified for each month of the year using a wide range of class numbers (2–40) and sequence lengths from 1 to 6 days. In each case, the classification is used to reconstruct temperature variability in 5°×5° grid-boxes throughout Europe for the period 1850–2003 in order to compare the circulation type based reconstruction to monthly observations for skill estimation. Results show that extended PCA leads to more dynamic pattern sequences for subordinated classes, but also that it is limited in skill, because classes of very low frequencies are generated. In contrast, extended cluster analysis offers higher skill levels for temperature downscaling. However, both methods can benefit from using sequences instead of single days for classification, especially for continental regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalies of mean air temperature of 12 consecutive months were detected recently at a number of spatial scales: from local via national and continental, to hemispheric. At all these spatial scales, pre-2007 records were exceeded by considerable margins. The recent rise in the mean temperature of 12 consecutive months at several scales has remained largely unnoticed, because the 12-month means are seldom analyzed. Broad attention is typically focused on monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures. Analysis of shifted 12-month periods helps spot peculiar 12-month episodes with remarkable temperature anomalies that do not coincide with a calendar year. Introducing 12-month running mean temperatures into the global warming debate can prove useful. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]