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Previous studies have demonstrated that the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation varies considerably during the boreal winter. Compared to the late winter (January–March) relationship, the early winter (November–December) teleconnection is more uncertain and less understood. In this paper, we revisited this early winter regional ENSO teleconnection using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5) datasets for the period 1979–2022. It was found that the signal projected well onto the second dominant mode of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), rather than the previously mentioned North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This influence is associated with ENSO-induced dipolar convection anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea (GMCA), which leads to an EAP via exciting Rossby waves propagating northward into the North Atlantic. We further revealed that this ENSO–EAP teleconnection underwent a pronounced interdecadal strengthening around the late 1990s. Prior to the late 1990s, the convective response to ENSO in the GMCA was weak. The atmospheric responses over the Euro-Atlantic were mainly driven by the ENSO-induced convective forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which favors an NAO-like pattern. In contrast, since the late 1990s, ENSO has induced stronger precipitation anomalies in the GMCA, which exert a dominant influence on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and produce an EAP. These results have useful implications for the further understanding of ENSO-related early winter atmospheric and climate variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to describe the reproductive dynamic of Euthynnus alletteratus in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The annual variation of the volume fraction occupied by gametes and tissues in gonads were related with main body indexes, such as the gonadosomatic index (IG), the hepatosomatic index (IH), and the nutrition index (IN), and compared with the sea surface temperature. A total of 951 E. alletteratus individuals were sampled, where a sex ratio of 1:1 and a size interval strongly skewed towards organisms with a fork length (LF) of 36-40 cm were observed. The IG showed an increase fromMarch to September with maximum values in April and July. Two clearly defined peaks were observed, and they were consistent with the histological analysis, where the percentage of ripe gametes predominated from April to September. The optimum thermal window for reproductive activity was from 24 to 28 °C. The size of first sex maturity was 34.35 cm of LF formales and 34.60 (LF) for females, without significant difference between sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The continued presence of systematic errors in operational forecasts of return flow over the Gulf of Mexico has motivated an investigation into this problem. The theme of the work is use of a low-order mixed-layer model that is faithful to the phenomenon in the context of dynamic data assimilation. Data assimilation experiments in the identical-twin mode determine the best place to make observations that minimize the forecast error through adjustment of model controls. The emphasized controls are those associated with the fluxes of heat and moisture from sea to atmosphere. Results indicate that the best observations are at that time and place when the outflowing continental air passes over the warmest sea surface temperatures. In the case studied, this warmest zone is directly over the Loop Current. Observations at times long after the modified air leaves these warmest waters lead to relatively poor control adjustments and little improvement in the forecast. If input to data assimilation is restricted to observations of a single model variable over short intervals of time (the order of several hours), results are relatively poor. Yet, a significant improvement is forthcoming if one of the observations is replaced by an observation from another model variable. This result is understood through arguments based on forecast sensitivity to model control. The paper ends with discussion of steps to be taken that hold promise for correcting systematic error in return-flow forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During coral calcification in massive scleractinian corals, a double annual banding of different densities (high- and low-density) is formed in their skeletons, which can provide a retrospective record of growth and the influence of environmental conditions on the coral's lifespan. Evidence indicates that during the last decades, the reduction in coral calcification rate is attributed to the combination of global stress factors such as Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and local anthropic stressors. Yet, coral growth trajectories can vary between regions and coral species, where remote locations of coral reefs can act as natural laboratories, as they are far from the harmful effects of direct anthropogenic stressors. The present study reports historical chronology over a 24-year period (1992–2016) of coral extension rate (cm yr-1), skeletal density (g cm-3), and calcification rate (g cm-2 yr-1) of the reef-building coral Orbicella faveolata at the remote reef Cayo Arenas, Campeche Bank, in the south-eastern Gulf of Mexico. The relationships between the three sclerochronological features show that O. faveolata uses its calcification resources to build denser skeletons. Chronological trends indicate that coral extension increased, skeletal density and calcification rate decreased (33% calcification rate) over time. The results reveal that despite the remoteness of the locality the maximum SST has been increased, and the coral calcification rate decreased over time. If the temperature continues to rise, there is a conceivable risk of experiencing a decline in reef-building coral species. This scenario, in turn, could pose a significant threat, endangering not only the framework of coral reefs but also their ecological functionality, even within remote Atlantic reef ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Influences of the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current (LC) position on the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Florida Straits (FS) during the winter season are investigated. Satellite-derived SST data are analyzed on the basis of the LC configuration (mature or immature) as determined by satellite altimetry analyses. Cumulative distributions of FS SSTs for both LC phases during the months of January and February show greater likelihood of cooler SSTs in the FS during a mature LC than during an immature LC. This work suggests that differing transit times of LC water parcels during mature and immature phases result in differences in heat loss of the LC near-surface water. This may contribute to the observed SST differences in FS during mature and immature LC phases via temperature advection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number of studies of reproductive biology for Atlantic bluefin tuna carried out in the Gulf of Mexico is significantly lower than those undertaken in the Mediterranean Sea. Four spawning areas have been found for the eastern Atlantic bluefin tuna stock in the Mediterranean Sea, so it is not implausible that there is more than one spawning area in the Gulf of Mexico for the western Atlantic bluefin tuna stock. The individuals used in this study were caught as bycatch by the Mexican surface longline fleet between January and April 2015. A total of 63 individuals ranging between 192 and 293 cm LF (mean = 238 ± 22.52 cm) were measured. Gonads from 46 fish (31 females and 15 males) were collected for histological examination. All the individuals were classified as mature; 25 were reproductively active (in spawning capable and spawning stages). The histological analysis indicates spawning activity in Mexican waters (the southern Gulf of Mexico). Spawning occurred in March and April, when the sea surface temperature was 25.57 °C ± 0.69 in March and 27.03 °C ± 0.69 in April. Information on the location of the spawning areas is necessary for a correct management of species. The present study provides the first histological evidence of reproductive activity in Mexican waters, and indicates a wider spawning area, beyond just the northern zone, potentially encompassing the entire Gulf of Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using 42 years of reanalysis data, we investigate regional, storm‐relative characteristics of three groups of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensification: slightly, moderately, and rapidly intensifying. Probability density functions are distinct between these groups for vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), and radius of maximum winds (RMW), but less so for relative humidity (RH). In the Gulf of Mexico and southern North Atlantic, shear and RMW are good predictors. In the open Atlantic, north of 22°N, shear and SST are the best predictors. In the Caribbean, weaker relationships suggest low statistical predictability in a region where RI cases increased between 1980–2000 and 2001–2021. Of our storm‐relative variables tested, increasing SST appears to be most closely connected to the 36% increase in rapidly intensifying events between the two periods, whereas shear and RH are not significantly more favorable. The variability across regions, periods, and variables motivates further investigation. Plain Language Summary: Although many damaging Atlantic tropical cyclones intensify rapidly during their lifetime, forecasting how rapidly they will intensify remains difficult. To address this, we need to better understand whether the conditions in a storm's environment can help identify whether it will intensify rapidly or more slowly, and whether these results change in different regions. Using 42 years of data, we find that wind shear (change in wind speed and direction with height) and ocean temperature are useful to discriminate whether a storm may intensify rapidly versus slowly across the basin, although there is variability in the results. Humidity is less useful. Our results vary by region. The Caribbean shows lower discrimination between intensification rates, highlighting potential difficulties in predicting intensification in this region. This is concerning since the number of rapidly intensifying events has risen sharply in the Caribbean between 1980–2000 and 2001–2021. We also find that the trends in intensifying storms during these 21‐year periods vary by region. The most consistent signal related to the rise in intensifying events is the increasing ocean temperature. Key Points: Atlantic basin rapid intensification trends vary by region, with the greatest increases between 1980–2000 and 2001–2021 south of 22°NWind shear, sea surface temperature, and radius of maximum winds are useful discriminators between intensification ratesStorm‐relative environmental variable trends vary by region, with sea surface temperatures often related to regional intensity change trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The system of oceanic flows constituting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) moves heat and other properties to the subpolar North Atlantic, controlling regional climate, weather, sea levels, and ecosystems. Climate models suggest a potential AMOC slowdown towards the end of this century due to anthropogenic forcing, accelerating coastal sea level rise along the western boundary and dramatically increasing flood risk. While direct observations of the AMOC are still too short to infer long-term trends, we show here that the AMOC-induced changes in gyre-scale heat content, superimposed on the global mean sea level rise, are already influencing the frequency of floods along the United States southeastern seaboard. We find that ocean heat convergence, being the primary driver for interannual sea level changes in the subtropical North Atlantic, has led to an exceptional gyre-scale warming and associated dynamic sea level rise since 2010, accounting for 30-50% of flood days in 2015-2020. AMOC-induced heat advection controls ocean temperature in the subtropical North Atlantic, drives year-to-year changes of basin-wide and coastal sea level, and accounts for 30-50% of flood days along the South Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Mexico coasts in 2015-2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter storms occur in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) every few years, but there are not many studies on oceanic responses to severe winter storms. Although usually considered less destructive than hurricanes, they can result in cumulative damages. Winter Storm Outbreak of February 2021 (WSO21), the most intense winter storm to impact Texas and the GoM in 30 years, passed over the western GoM and brought severe cold to the GoM coastal regions, which caused a sudden cooling of the ocean surface, resulting in an extensive loss of marine life. In this study, we analyze multiple datasets from both in situ and satellite observations to examine the oceanic changes due to WSO21 in order to improve our understanding of oceanic responses to winter storms. Although the pre-storm sea surface temperature (SST) was 1–2 °C warmer than normal, severe coastal cold spells caused a significant cooling of the order of −3 °C to −5 °C during WSO21 and a −1 °C average cooling in the mixed layer (ML) over the western GoM. Net surface heat loss played a primary role in the upper ocean cooling during WSO21 and explained more than 50% of the cooling that occurred. Convective mixing due to surface cooling and turbulent mixing induced by enhanced wind speeds significantly increase the surface ML in the western GoM. Apart from rapid changes in SST and heat fluxes due to air-sea interactions, persistent upwelling brings nutrients to the surface and can produce coastal "winter" blooms along the Texas and Mexico coast. Prominent salinity increases along the coastal regions during and after WSO21 were another indicator of wind-induced coastal upwelling. Our study demonstrates the utility of publicly-available datasets for studying the impact of winter storms on the ocean surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cold fronts are meteorological phenomena that impact the northern Gulf of Mexico, mostly between the fall and spring seasons. On average, they pass the region every 3–7 days, with a duration ranging between 24 and 74 h. In the present study, a high-resolution FVCOM model with an unstructured mesh was used to simulate the effect of the fall cold front winds on water column mixing over the Louisiana shelf, which is often stratified in the summer, leading to hypoxia. Numerical experiments were conducted for October 2009, a period with five consecutive cold front events. Winds from an offshore station forced the model, while climatological temperature/salinity profiles prepared by NOAA for September were used for model initialization. The model performance was evaluated by comparing it with the surface current measurements at two offshore stations, and the results showed a good agreement between the model results and observations. Shelf mixing and stratification were investigated through examining the simulated sea surface temperature as well as the longitudinal and cross-shelf vertical sections. Simulation results showed a significant effect on shelf mixing, with the mixed layer depth increasing from the initial values of 5 m to 25 m at the end of simulation at different parts of the shelf, with maximum mixed layer depths corresponding to the peak of cold fronts. The buoyancy frequency, Richardson number, and the average potential energy demand (APED) for mixing the water column were used to quantify the stratification at two selected locations over the shelf. Results showed that all these parameters almost continuously decreased due to mixing induced by cold front wind events during this time. At the station off the Terrebonne Bay with a water depth of 20 m, the water column became fully mixed after three of the cold front events, with Richardson numbers smaller than 0.25 and approaching zero. This continued mixing trend was also proven by obtaining a decreasing trend of APED from 100 to 5 kg/m.s2 with several close to zero energy demand values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Doliolids are common gelatinous grazers in marine ecosystems around the world and likely influence carbon cycling due to their large population sizes with high growth and excretion rates. Aggregations or blooms of these organisms occur frequently, but they are difficult to measure or predict because doliolids are fragile, under sampled with conventional plankton nets, and can aggregate on fine spatial scales (1–10 m). Moreover, ecological studies typically target a single region or site that does not encompass the range of possible habitats favoring doliolid proliferation. To address these limitations, we combined in situ imaging data from six coastal ecosystems, including the Oregon shelf, northern California, southern California Bight, northern Gulf of Mexico, Straits of Florida, and Mediterranean Sea, to resolve and compare doliolid habitat associations during warm months when environmental gradients are strong and doliolid blooms are frequently documented. Higher ocean temperature was the strongest predictor of elevated doliolid abundances across ecosystems, with additional variance explained by chlorophyll a fluorescence and dissolved oxygen. For marginal seas with a wide range of productivity regimes, the nurse stage tended to comprise a higher proportion of the doliolids when total abundance was low. However, this pattern did not hold in ecosystems with persistent coastal upwelling. The doliolids tended to be most aggregated in oligotrophic systems (Mediterranea and southern California), suggesting that microhabitats within the water column favor proliferation on fine spatial scales. Similar comparative approaches can resolve the realized niche of fast‐reproducing marine animals, thus improving predictions for population‐level responses to changing oceanographic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NOAA's National Ocean Service is upgrading three existing northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) operational nowcast/forecast systems (OFS) by integrating them into one single system (INGOFS) and developing additional domain coverage to encompass the lower Mississippi River, Lake Pontchartrain, Texas coastal embayments, and Mexican coastal waters. The system will produce real-time nowcast and short-range forecast guidance for water levels, 3-dimensional currents, water temperature, and salinity. INGOFS will be implemented using the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). This paper describes the model configuration and results from a one-year (2 August 2016–1 August 2017) hindcast simulation. The model grid is composed of about 300,000 nodes and 600,000 elements, and has a spatial resolution ranging from 45 m near the coast to around 10 km on the open ocean boundary. It uses the FVCOM wetting and drying feature, the quadratic bottom friction scheme, and the two-equation model of the Mellor-Yamada Level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The hindcast results of water levels, surface temperatures, and salinity were verified by comparing the model time series with in situ observations. The root-mean-squared errors are about 0.08 m for water levels, about 1.1 °C for temperatures, and about 3.7 psu for salinity. The hindcast configuration will be further tested in a nowcast/forecast environment for a one-year period. The upgraded system is anticipated to be in operational production in mid-2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), mesoscale features strongly influence hydrographic and circulation patterns, which can favor larval retention and/or transport. Most ichthyoplankton studies in the southern GoM (south of 25°N) have focused on the continental shelves and the Bay of Campeche (BoC), and little is known about larval fish assemblages in the oceanic region. We compared the structure of the assemblages among stations from contrasting mesoscale features in the deep water region (depths greater than 1000 m), hypothesizing that there is a higher similarity in assemblages from stations within the same feature. Ichthyoplankton samples were collected in the upper 200 m during two oceanographic cruises. Analyses of sea surface heights and temperature anomaly profiles allowed us to identify the stations corresponding to specific mesoscale features, including cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, upwelling, river discharge waters transported offshore, and the Loop Current. Larval fish assemblages were not strictly differentiated among features, except for one assemblage identified within an anticyclonic eddy. Stations within the BoC could be discriminated from the northern oceanic region due to high larval fish abundances and to the occurrence of taxa that inhabit coastal and neritic habitats as adults, which are transported offshore due to local oceanographic processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer rainfall in the southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR) is an important part of a vital wetland ecosystem that various species use as their habitat. We examine sources and pathways for summer rainfall moisture, large‐scale features influencing moisture delivery, and large‐scale connections related to summer moisture using the Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Analysis of HYSPLIT back trajectories shows that land is the primary moisture source for summer rainfall events indicating moisture recycling plays an important role in precipitation generation. The Great Plains Low‐Level Jet/Maya Express is the most prominent moisture pathway. It impacts events sourced by land and the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), the secondary moisture source. There is a coupling between land, atmosphere, and ocean conveyed by large‐scale climate connections between rainfall events and sea surface temperature (SST), Palmer Drought Severity Index, and 850‐mb heights. Land‐sourced events have a connection to the northern Pacific and northwest Atlantic Oceans, soil moisture over the central U.S., and low‐pressure systems over the SEPPR. GoM‐sourced events share the connection to soil moisture over the central U.S. but also show connections to SSTs in the North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and the GoM, soil moisture in northern Mexico, and 850‐mb heights in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Both types of events show connections to high 850‐mb heights in the Caribbean which may reflect a connection to Bermuda High. These insights into moisture sources and pathways can improve skill in SEPPR summer rainfall predictions and benefit natural resource managers in the region. Key Points: Land is the primary source of moisture for all summer rainfall events in the southeast Prairie Pothole Region (SEPPR)The Great Plains Low Level Jet/Maya Express is the primary pathway of moisture delivery for land and Gulf of Mexico sourced eventsInsights from this work can improve the skill of SEPPR summer rainfall predictions which would be useful to resource managers in the region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes (category 3+ on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). Though the season was active overall, the final two months (October–November) raised 2020 into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricane activity for integrated metrics such as accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). This study focuses on October–November 2020, when 7 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes formed and produced ACE of 74 × 104 kt2 (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1). Since 1950, October–November 2020 ranks tied for third for named storms, first for hurricanes and major hurricanes, and second for ACE. Six named storms also underwent rapid intensification (≥30 kt intensification in ≤24 h) in October–November 2020—the most on record. This manuscript includes a climatological analysis of October–November tropical cyclones (TCs) and their primary formation regions. In 2020, anomalously low wind shear in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, likely driven by a moderate-intensity La Niña event and anomalously high sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean, provided dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that were much more conducive than normal for late-season TC formation and rapid intensification. This study also highlights October–November 2020 landfalls, including Hurricanes Delta and Zeta in Louisiana and in Mexico and Hurricanes Eta and Iota in Nicaragua. The active late season in the Caribbean would have been anticipated by a statistical model using the July–September-averaged ENSO longitude index and Atlantic warm pool SSTs as predictors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong winds in tropical cyclones (TCs) mix the ocean, causing cooler water from below the thermocline to be drawn upward, reducing sea surface temperature (SST). This decreases the air–sea temperature difference, limits available heat energy, and impacts TC intensity. Part of TC forecast accuracy therefore depends upon the ability to predict sea surface cooling; however, it is not well understood how underlying ocean conditions contribute to this cooling. Here, ~4400 Argo profiles in the Gulf of Mexico were used in a principal component analysis to identify the modes of variability in upper-ocean temperature, and a 1D mixed layer model was used to determine how the modes respond to surface forcing. It was found that the first two modes explain 75% of the variance in the data, with high mode-1 scores being broadly characterized as having warm SST and deep mixed layer and mode-2 scores being characterized as having high SST and a shallow mixed layer. Both modes have distinct seasonal and spatial variability. When subjected to the same model forcing, mode-1- and mode-2-characteristic waters with equal tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) respond very differently. Mode-2 SST cools faster than mode 1, with the difference being most pronounced at lower wind speeds and when comparing early-season storms with late-season storms. The results show that using TCHP as a marker for SST response during TC forcing is insufficient because it does not fully capture subsurface ocean thermal structure. This result underscores the need for continual subsurface monitoring so as to accurately initialize the upper ocean in coupled TC models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given current threats to ocean ecosystem health, there is a growing demand for accurate biogeochemical hindcasts, nowcasts, and predictions. Provision of such products requires data assimilation, i.e., a comprehensive strategy for incorporating observations into biogeochemical models, but current data streams of biogeochemical observations are generally considered insufficient for the operational provision of such products. This study investigates to what degree the assimilation of satellite observations in combination with a priori model calibration by sparse BGC-Argo profiles can improve subsurface biogeochemical properties. The multivariate deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) has been implemented to assimilate physical and biological observations into a three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model, the biogeochemical component of which has been calibrated by BGC-Argo float data for the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, observations of sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and surface chlorophyll were assimilated, and profiles of both physical and biological variables were updated based on the surface information. We assessed whether this leads to improved subsurface distributions, especially of biological properties, using observations from five BGC-Argo floats that were not assimilated. An alternative light parameterization that was tuned a priori using BGC-Argo observations was also applied to test the sensitivity of data assimilation impact on subsurface biological properties. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data improves model representation of major circulation features, which translate into improved three-dimensional distributions of temperature and salinity. The multivariate assimilation also improves the agreement of subsurface nitrate through its tight correlation with temperature, but the improvements in subsurface chlorophyll were modest initially due to suboptimal choices of the model's optical module. Repeating the assimilation run by using the alternative light parameterization greatly improved the subsurface distribution of chlorophyll. Therefore, even sparse BGC-Argo observations can provide substantial benefits for biogeochemical prediction by enabling a priori model tuning. Given that, so far, the abundance of BGC-Argo profiles in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere has been insufficient for sequential assimilation, updating 3D biological properties in a model that has been well calibrated is an intermediate step toward full assimilation of the new data types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key consequence in climate change is the warming of deep waters, away from the faster warming rates of near-surface subtropical and tropical waters. Since surface and near-surface oceanic temperatures have been measured far more frequently in time and space than deep waters (>2000 m), deep measurements become quite valuable. Semi-enclosed basins, such as the Gulf of Mexico, are of particular interest as the waters below sills that connect with the neighboring oceans have residence times much longer than upper layers. Within the western Gulf of Mexico, near-bottom measurements at ~3500-m depths at four sites show a stable linear warming trend of ~16 ± 2 m°C decade−1 for the period 2007–18, and CTD data from eight oceanographic cruises occurring from 2003 to 2019 show a trend of ~18 ± ~2 m°C decade−1 from the bottom to ~2000 m below the surface. The bottom geothermal heat flux is a contributing factor to be considered in the warming and renewal of such waters, but it has not changed over millennia and is therefore unlikely to be the cause of the observed trend. The densest waters that spill into the Gulf of Mexico, over the Yucatan Channel sill, must mix substantially during their descent and in the near-bottom interior, losing their extreme values. A simple box model connects the observed warming, well within the Gulf interior, with that expected in the densest waters that spill from the North Atlantic into the Cayman Basin through Windward Passage and suggests that the source waters at the entrance to the Caribbean have been warming for at least 100 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is a semi-enclosed sea where the waters of the United States, Mexico and Cuba converge. Al least 21 species of cetaceans inhabit it. The only mysticete (baleen whale) is found in the northeast (U.S. waters). The distribution of the 20 species of odontocetes (toothed cetaceans) is well understood in U.S. waters, but practically unknown in Mexican and Cuban waters. In this study we used sighting data from several odontocete species to construct habitat suitability maps in order to identify geographical regions suitable for high diversity throughout the GOM. Methods. Historical datasets of georeferenced sightings from across the GOM were used to implement the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to model the habitat suitability of each species. Five environmental predictors were used, selected for their influence over the occurrence of cetaceans: two oceanographic predictors (sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentration), and three bathymetric predictors (depth, slope, and distance to 200-m isobath). A spatial approach based on the habitat suitability maps was used to identify the suitable regions. Results. Only 12 species were modeled, which were the ones with the minimum sample size required. The models performed well, showing good discriminatory power and slight overfitting. Overall, depth, minimum sea surface temperature, and bottom slope were the most contributing predictor in the models. High suitability areas of 10 species were located on the continental slope, and four suitable regions were identified: (1) the Mississippi Canyon and the Louisiana-Texas slope in the northern GOM, (2) the west Florida slope in the east-northeastern GOM, (3) the Rio Grande slope in the westnorthwestern GOM, and (4) the Tamaulipas-Veracruz slope in the west-southwestern GOM. Conclusions. We were able to detect four geographic regions in the GOM where a high diversity of odontocetes is expected, all located on the continental slope. Although the methodology to identify them (spatial overlap) is a very conservative approach, it is useful for conservation and management purposes. The paucity of data did not allow all species to be modeled, which highlights the importance of establishing transboundary monitoring programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tornado outbreak of 21–23 January 2017 caused 20 fatalities, more than 200 injuries, and over a billion dollars in damage in the Southeast United States. The event occurred concurrently with a record-breaking warm Gulf of Mexico (GoM) basin. This article explores the influence that warm GoM sea surface temperatures (SSTs) had on the tornado outbreak. Backward trajectory analysis, combined with a Lagrangianbased moisture-attribution algorithm, reveals that the tornado outbreak’s moisture predominantly originated from the southeast GoM and the northwest Caribbean Sea. We used the WRF Model to generate a control simulation of the event and explore the response to perturbed SSTs. With the aid of a tornadic storm proxy derived from updraft helicity, we show that the 21–23 January 2017 tornado outbreak exhibits sensitivity to upstream SSTs during the first day of the event. Warmer SSTs across remote moisture sources and adjacent waters increase tornado frequency, in contrast to cooler SSTs, which reduce tornado activity. Upstream SST sensitivity is reduced once convection is ongoing and modifying local moisture and instability availability. Our results highlight the importance of air–sea interactions before airmass advection toward the continental United States. The complex and nonlinear nature of the relationship between upstream SSTs and local precursor environments is also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evolution of a thermally stratified diurnal warm layer (DWL), including the formation and decay of a daytime surface-layer jet, high-frequency internal waves, and mixing were examined from observations collected during July 2016, near 93.75°W, 28°N, on the outer Louisiana-Texas continental shelf in the Gulf of Mexico, when the ocean surface was experiencing a weak sea breeze (<5ms-1) and strong solar insolation. While winds and surface waves were weak, the DWL was formed with stratification strengthening and stability frequency reaching 14 cycles per hour at 2-m depth, while inhibiting turbulence below the DWL. A surface-intensified jet developed during afternoon hours. The jet, oriented to the right of the wind stress with a speed of about 10 cm s21 at 2m, veered and decreased with depth. The magnitude of the diurnal jet was correlated with the heat content anomaly in the DWL. Internal waves with periods ranging from 5 min to 4 h were observed in the upper 4m. Temperature fluctuations were ; 60.28C, and the corresponding vertical displacements varied from 0.5 to 1m. These fluctuations appeared during afternoon hours when the Richardson number dropped below the critical value of 0.25 followed by energetic mixing. The daytime jet and the high-frequency fluctuations disappeared a few hours after sunset. Internal waves were likely excited by Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities and by surface wave and internal wave interactions. Mixing resulting from the dissipation of daytime internal waves is an important factor in regulating sea surface temperature in the DWL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hailstones are a natural hazard that pose a significant threat to property and are responsible for significant economic losses each year in the United States. Detailed understanding of their characteristics is essential to mitigate their impact. Identifying the dynamic and physical factors contributing to hail formation and hailstone sizes is of great importance to weather and climate prediction and policymakers. In this study, we have analyzed the temporal and spatial variabilities of severe hail occurrences over the U.S. southern Great Plains (SGP) states from 2004 to 2016 using two hail datasets: hail reports from the Storm Prediction Center and the newly developed radar-retrieved maximum expected size of hail (MESH). It is found that severe and significant severe hail occurrences have a considerable year-to-year temporal variability in the SGP region. The interannual variabilities have a strong correspondence with sea surface temperature anomalies over the northern Gulf of Mexico and there is no outlier. The year 2016 is identified as an outlier for the correlations with both El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and aerosol loading. The correlations with ENSO and aerosol loading are not statistically robust to inclusion of the outlier 2016. Statistical analysis without the outlier 2016 shows that 1) aerosols that may be mainly from northern Mexico have the largest correlation with hail interannual variability among the three factors and 2) meteorological covariation does not significantly contribute to the high correlation. These analyses warrant further investigations of aerosol impacts on hail occurrence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of the impact of climate change on water resources over land requires knowledge on the origin of the precipitation and changes therein toward the future. We determine the origin of precipitation over the Mississippi River basin (MRB) using high-resolution (~25 km) climate model simulations for present and future climate (RCP4.5). Moisture resulting in precipitation over the MRB is tracked back in time using Eulerian offline moisture tracking, in order to find out from where this water originally evaporated (i.e., the moisture sources). We find that the most important continental moisture sources are the MRB itself and the area southwest of the basin. The two most relevant oceanic sources are the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean and the Pacific. The distribution of sources varies per season, with more recycling of moisture within the basin during summer and more transport of moisture from the ocean toward the basin in winter. In future winters, we find an increase in moisture source from the oceans (related to higher sea surface temperatures), resulting in more precipitation over the MRB. In future summers, we find an approximately 5% decrease in moisture source from the basin itself, while the decrease in precipitation is smaller (i.e., lower recycling ratios). The results here are based on one climate model, and we do not study low-frequency climate variability. We conclude that Mississippi's moisture sources will become less local in a future climate, with more water originating from the oceans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessments of ocean data assimilation (DA) systems and observing system design experiments typically rely on identical or nonidentical twin experiments. The identical twin approach has been recognized as yielding biased impact assessments in atmospheric predictions, but these shortcomings are not sufficiently appreciated for oceanic DA applications. Here we present the first direct comparison of the nonidentical and identical twin approaches in an ocean DA application. We assess the assimilation impact for both approaches in a DA system for the Gulf of Mexico that uses the ensemble Kalman filter. Our comparisons show that, despite a reasonable error growth rate in both approaches, the identical twin produces a biased skill assessment, overestimating the improvement from assimilating sea surface height and sea surface temperature observations while underestimating the value of assimilating temperature and salinity profiles. Such biases can lead to an undervaluation of some observing assets (in this case profilers) and thus a misguided distribution of observing system investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Net community production (NCP) in the surface water of the northern Gulf of Mexico (nGOM) and its coupling with the CO2 system were examined during the productive spring season. NCP was estimated using multiple approaches: (1) underway O2 and Ar ratio, (2) oxygen changes during light/dark bottle oxygen incubations, and (3) non-conservative changes in dissolved inorganic carbon or nutrients. These methods all showed high spatial variability of NCP and displayed similar patterns along the river–ocean mixing gradient, showing high production rates in plume regions. NCP O2Ar estimated from high-resolution O2 and Ar underway measurement indicated heterotrophic conditions at the high-nutrient and high-turbidity Mississippi River end (-51.3±11.9 mmol C m -2 d -1 when salinity < 2) resulting from the influence of terrestrial carbon input and light limitation on photosynthesis. High NCP O2Ar rates (105.0±59.2 mmol C m -2 d -1 , up to 235.4 mmol C m -2 d -1) were observed in the Mississippi and Atchafalaya plumes at intermediate salinities between 15 and 30 where light and nutrients were both favorable for phytoplankton production. NCP O2Ar rates observed in the high-salinity, oligotrophic offshore waters (salinity > 35.5) were close to zero due to nutrient limitation. Air–sea CO2 fluxes generally showed corresponding changes, from being a strong CO2 source in the river channel (55.5±7.6 mmol C m -2 d -1), to a CO2 sink in the plume (-13.4±5.5 mmol C m -2 d -1), and to being nearly in equilibrium with the atmosphere in offshore waters. Overall, the surface water of the nGOM was net autotrophic during spring 2017, with an area-weighted mean NCP O2Ar of 21.2 mmol C m -2 d -1 , and was a CO2 sink of - 6.7 mmol C m -2 d -1. A temporal mismatch between in situ biological production and gas exchange of O2 and CO2 was shown through a box model to result in decoupling between NCP O2Ar and CO2 flux (e.g., autotrophic water as a CO2 source outside the Mississippi River mouth and heterotopic water as a CO2 sink in the Atchafalaya coastal water). This decoupling was a result of in situ biological production superimposed on the lingering background pCO2 from the source water because of the slow air–sea CO2 exchange rate and the buffering effect of the carbonate system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between dive behavior and oceanographic conditions is not well understood for marine predators, especially sea turtles. We tagged loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) with satellite-linked depth loggers in the Gulf of Mexico, where there is a minimal amount of dive data for this species. We tested for associations between four measurements of dive behavior (total daily dive frequency, frequency of dives to the bottom, frequency of long dives and time-at-depth) and both oceanographic conditions (sea surface temperature [SST], net primary productivity [NPP]) and behavioral mode (inter-nesting, migration, or foraging). From 2011–2013 we obtained 26 tracks from 25 adult female loggerheads tagged after nesting in the Gulf of Mexico. All turtles remained in the Gulf of Mexico and spent about 10% of their time at the surface (10% during inter-nesting, 14% during migration, 9% during foraging). Mean total dive frequency was 41.9 times per day. Most dives were ≤ 25 m and between 30–40 min. During inter-nesting and foraging, turtles dived to the bottom 95% of days. SST was an important explanatory variable for all dive patterns; higher SST was associated with more dives per day, more long dives and more dives to the seafloor. Increases in NPP were associated with more long dives and more dives to the bottom, while lower NPP resulted in an increased frequency of overall diving. Longer dives occurred more frequently during migration and a higher proportion of dives reached the seafloor during foraging when SST and NPP were higher. Our study stresses the importance of the interplay between SST and foraging resources for influencing dive behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study introduces a climatology of hourly precipitation for four first-order weather stations across Louisiana, investigates possible changes in the hourly precipitation distribution, and links winter (DJF) Gulf of Mexico (GOM) sea surface temperatures (SST) to the frequency of hours with precipitation. Results indicate that it precipitates between 431 and 457 h annually, equivalent to roughly 5% of the total annual hours, with distinct seasonal differences. For example, the duration of events is much longer in winter compared to summer, while the number of rainfall events is greater in summer. Using regression techniques, three of the four stations showed a statistically significant increase in 90th percentile hourly events and hourly intensity. At the same time, the frequency of light hourly events (0.254 mm, 1.27 mm, 2.54 mm) decreased. It was also determined that winter GOM SST significantly correlated with the number of hours with precipitation across coastal Louisiana, possibly related to the frequency of synoptic types such as frontal overrunning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tornadic thunderstorms rely on the availability of sufficient low-level moisture, but the source regions of that moisture have not been explicitly demarcated. Using the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory HYSPLIT model and a Lagrangian-based diagnostic, moisture attribution was conducted to identify the moisture source regions of tornadic convection. This study reveals a seasonal cycle in the origins and advection patterns of water vapor contributing to winter and spring tornado-producing storms (1981–2017). The Gulf of Mexico is shown to be the predominant source of moisture during both winter and spring, making up more than 50% of all contributions. During winter, substantial moisture contributions for tornadic convection also emanate from the western Caribbean Sea (>19%) and North Atlantic Ocean (>12%). During late spring, land areas (e.g., soil and vegetation) of the contiguous United States (CONUS) play a more influential role (>24%). Moisture attribution was also conducted for nontornadic cases and tornado outbreaks. Findings show that moisture sources of nontornadic events are more proximal to the CONUS than moisture sources of tornado outbreaks. Oceanic influences on the water vapor content of air parcels were also explored to determine if they can increase the likelihood of an air mass attaining moisture that will eventually contribute to severe thunderstorms. Warmer sea surface temperatures were generally found to enhance evaporative fluxes of overlying air parcels. The influence of atmospheric features on synoptic-scale moisture advection was also analyzed; stronger extratropical cyclones and Great Plains low-level jet occurrences lead to increased meridional moisture flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work describes dominant patterns of coupled interannual variability of the 10-m wind and sea surface temperature in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (CS&GM) during the period 1982–2016. Using a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) between the monthly mean anomalies of these fields, four coupled variability modes are identified: the dipole (March–April), transition (May–June), interocean (July–October), and meridional-wind (November–February) modes. Results show that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences almost all the CS&GM coupled modes, except the transition mode, and that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in February has a strong negative correlation with the dipole and transition modes. The antisymmetric relationships found between the dipole mode and the NAO and ENSO indices confirm previous evidence about the competing remote forcings of both teleconnection patterns on the tropical North Atlantic variability. Precipitation in the CS and adjacent oceanic and land areas is sensitive to the wind–SST coupled variability modes from June to October. These modes seem to be strongly related to the interannual variability of the midsummer drought and the meridional migration of the intertropical convergence zone in the eastern Pacific. These findings may eventually lead to improving seasonal predictability in the CS&GM and surrounding land areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ice storms are an infrequent but significant hazard in the U.S southern Great Plains. Common synoptic profiles for freezing precipitation reveal advection of low-level warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), above a shallow Arctic air mass ahead of a midlevel trough. Because the GOM is the proximal basin and major moisture source, this study investigates impacts of varying GOM sea surface temperature (SST) on the thermodynamic evolution of a winter storm that occurred during 28-30 January 2010, with particular emphasis on the modulation of freezing precipitation. A high-resolution, nested ARW sensitivity study with a 3.3-km inner domain is performed, using six representations of GOM SST, including control, climatological mean, uniform ±2°C from control, and physically constrained upper- and lower-bound basin-average anomalies from a 30-yr dataset. The simulations reveal discernable impacts of SST on the warm-layer inversion, precipitation intensity, and low-level dynamics. Whereas total precipitation for the storm increased monotonically with SST, the freezing-precipitation response was more varied and nonlinear, with the greatest accumulation decreases occurring for the coolest SST perturbation, particularly at moderate precipitation rates. Enhanced precipitation and warm-layer intensity promoted by warmer SST were offset for the highest perturbations by deepening of the weak 850-hPa low circulation and faster eastward progression associated with enhanced baroclinicity and diabatic generation of potential vorticity. Air-parcel trajectories terminating within the freezing-precipitation region were examined to identify airmass sources and modification. These results suggest that GOM SST can affect the severity of concurrent ice-storm events in the southern Great Plains, with warmer basin SST potentially exacerbating the risk of damaging ice accumulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°-0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. For both configurations, tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks' seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors' results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Finally, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) was a ~200 kyr episode of global warming, associated with massive injections of 13C-depleted carbon into the ocean–atmosphere system. Although climate change during the PETM is relatively well constrained, effects on marine oxygen concentrations and nutrient cycling remain largely unclear. We identify the PETM in a sediment core from the US margin of the Gulf of Mexico. Biomarker-based paleotemperature proxies (methylation of branched tetraether-cyclization of branched tetraether (MBT-CBT) and TEX86) indicate that continental air and sea surface temperatures warmed from 27-29 to ~35 °C, although variations in the relative abundances of terrestrial and marine biomarkers may have influenced these estimates. Vegetation changes, as recorded from pollen assemblages, support this warming. The PETM is bracketed by two unconformities. It overlies Paleocene silt- and mudstones and is rich in angular (thus in situ produced; autochthonous) glauconite grains, which indicate sedimentary condensation. A drop in the relative abundance of terrestrial organic matter and changes in the dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest that rising sea level shifted the deposition of terrigenous material landward. This is consistent with previous findings of eustatic sea level rise during the PETM. Regionally, the attribution of the glauconite-rich unit to the PETM implicates the dating of a primate fossil, argued to represent the oldest North American specimen on record. The biomarker isorenieratene within the PETM indicates that euxinic photic zone conditions developed, likely seasonally, along the Gulf Coastal Plain. A global data compilation indicates that O2 concentrations dropped in all ocean basins in response to warming, hydrological change, and carbon cycle feedbacks. This culminated in (seasonal) anoxia along many continental margins, analogous to modern trends. Seafloor deoxygenation and widespread (seasonal) anoxia likely caused phosphorus regeneration from suboxic and anoxic sediments. We argue that this fueled shelf eutrophication, as widely recorded from microfossil studies, increasing organic carbon burial along many continental margins as a negative feedback to carbon input and global warming. If properly quantified with future work, the PETM offers the opportunity to assess the biogeochemical effects of enhanced phosphorus regeneration, as well as the timescales on which this feedback operates in view of modern and future ocean deoxygenation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cloud contamination can lead to significant biases in sea surface temperature (SST) as estimated from satellite measurements. The effectiveness of four cloud detection algorithms for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in retaining valid SST data and masking cloud-contaminated data was assessed for all 2125 daytime and nighttime images during 2010 over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and including the east coast of Florida. None of the cloud detection algorithms was found to be sufficient to reliably differentiate clouds from valid SST, particularly during anomalously cold events. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm were identified, and a new hybrid cloud detection algorithm was developed to maximize valid data retention while excluding cloud-contaminated pixels. The hybrid algorithm was based on a decision tree, which includes a set of rules to use existing algorithms in different ways according to time and location. Comparing with >10\,000 concurrent in situ SST measurements from buoys, images processed with the hybrid algorithm showed increases in data capture and improved accuracy statistics over most existing algorithms. In particular, while keeping the same accuracy, the hybrid algorithm resulted in nearly 20% more SST retrievals than the most accurate algorithm (Quality SST) currently being used for operational processing. The increases in both data coverage and SST range should improve MODIS data products for more reliable SST retrievals in near real time, thus enhancing the ocean observing capacity to detect anomaly events and study short- and long-term SST changes in coastal environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies on Loop Current's variability in the Gulf of Mexico suggest that the system may behave with some regularity forced by the biannually varying trade winds. The process is analyzed here using a reduced-gravity model and satellite data. The model shows that a biannual signal is produced by vorticity and transport fluctuations in the Yucatan Channel because of the piling up and retreat of warm water in the northwestern Caribbean Sea forced by the biannually varying trade wind. The Loop grows and expands with increased northward velocity and cyclonic vorticity of the Yucatan Current, and eddies are shed when these are near minima. Satellite sea surface height (SSH) data from 1993 to 2010 are analyzed. These show, consistent with the reduced-gravity experiments and previous studies, a (statistically) significant asymmetric biannual variation of the growth and wane of Loop Current: strong from summer to fall and weaker from winter to spring; the asymmetry being due to the asymmetry that also exists in the long-term observed wind. The biannual signal is contained in the two leading EOF modes, which together explain 47% of the total variance, and which additionally describe the eddy shedding and westward propagation from summer to fall. The EOFs also show connectivity between Loop Current and Caribbean Sea's variability by mass and vorticity fluxes through the Yucatan Channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The strongest hurricanes over the North Atlantic Ocean are getting stronger, with the increase related to rising ocean temperature. Here, the authors develop a procedure for estimating future wind losses from hurricanes and apply it to Eglin Air Force Base along the northern coast of Florida. The method combines models of the statistical distributions for extreme wind speed and average sea surface temperature over the Gulf of Mexico with dynamical models for tropical cyclone wind fields and damage losses. Results show that the 1-in-100-yr hurricane from the twentieth century picked at random to occur in the year 2100 would result in wind damage that is 36%% [(13%%, 76%%) == 90%% confidence interval] greater solely as a consequence of the projected warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico. The method can be applied elsewhere along the coast with modeling assumptions modified for regional conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gulf of Mexico (GOM) receives heat from the Caribbean Sea via the Yucatan--Loop Current (LC) system, and the corresponding ocean heat content (OHC) is important to weather and climate of the continental United States. However, the mechanisms that affect this heat influx and how it is distributed in the Gulf have not been studied. Using the Princeton Ocean Model, the authors show that a steady, uniform westward wind in the Gulf increases (∼∼100 KJ cm−−2) the upper OHC (temperature T > 18°°C) of the Gulf. This is because wind increases the water exchange between the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea, and the heat input into the Gulf is also increased, by about 50 TW. The westward heat transport to the western Gulf is ∼∼30 TW, and a substantial portion of this is due to wind-induced shelf currents, which converge to produce downwelling near the western coast. Finally, eddies are effective transporters of heat across the central Gulf. Wind forces larger LC and rings with deeper isotherms. This and downfront-wind mixing on the southern side of anticyclonic rings, northward spread of near-zero potential vorticity waters, and downwelling on the northern shelf break result in wide and deep eddies that transport large OHCs across the Gulf. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite-derived time-series of sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll a, and net primary productivity showed a period of warm SST and low productivity during 1997 and 1999 in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico followed by a period of colder than average SST (2000–2001). This shift between the warm and cold oceanic conditions might have caused significant changes in the structure of the ecosystem that is shown by changes in primary productivity and fishery landings between those periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several advanced analysis tools are applied to depict the time–frequency characteristics of the variations of Great Plains (GP) precipitation and its relationship with tropical central-eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). These tools are advantageous because they reveal the detailed features of the dominant time scales of precipitation variations, the combined effects of multiscale oscillating signals on the intensity of precipitation, and the variations of SST–precipitation relationships in time and frequency domains. The variability of GP precipitation is characterized by strong annual and semiannual signals, which have the most stable oscillating frequencies and the largest amplitudes. However, nonseasonal signals, which are less oscillatory and have smaller amplitudes and more variable frequencies with time, also contribute significantly to precipitation variability and may modify the seasonal cycle of GP precipitation. The phase of these nonseasonal signals is in phase (out of phase) with that of seasonal signals during the periods of heavy (deficient) precipitation. Significant correlations exist between GP precipitation and Niño-3.4 SST, and the strongest relationship appears when the SST leads the precipitation by 1 month. The GP precipitation increases (decreases) during El Niño (La Niña) episodes. Significant relationships appear on semiannual and annual time scales in the 1950s and on interannual time scales in the 1910s, 1940s, and 1980s. A particularly significant relationship appears on biennial time scales in the 1980s. The revealed SST–precipitation relationship is strongly seasonally dependent, with the greatest significance in summer. Warming of tropical central-eastern Pacific SST weakens the overlying easterly trade winds and strengthens the northward moisture supply from Central America through the Gulf of Mexico to the Great Plains. This dominant SST influence prevails in all seasons. However, the moisture transport from the southwest coast and the Gulf of California also contributes to the variability of GP precipitation in September–November, December–February, and March–May. In June–August, the increase in GP precipitation is caused by convergence between anomalous northerly flow over the northern plains, associated with the warming in the northeastern Pacific, and southerly flow over the southern plains, associated with the warming in the tropical central-eastern Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The annual cycle of sea surface temperature and ocean-atmosphere fluxes on the west Florida shelf is described using in situ measurements and climatology. Seasonal reversals in water temperature tendency occur when the net surface heat flux changes sign in boreal spring and fall. Synoptic-scale variability is also important. Momentum and heat flux variations result in successive water column stratification and destratification events, particularly at shallower depths during spring. Fall is characterized by destratification of the water column and a series of steplike decreases in the temperature. These are in response to both tropical storms and extratropical fronts. Tropical storms are responsible for the largest momentum fluxes, but not necessarily for the largest surface heat fluxes. A one-dimensional analysis of the temperature equation suggests that surface heat flux is primarily responsible for the spring and fall seasonal ocean temperature changes, but that synoptic-scale variability is also controlled by the ocean circulation dynamics. During summer, the situation is reversed and the major influence on water temperature is ocean dynamics, with the heat flux contributing to the synoptic-scale variability. There is also evidence of interannual variability: the wintertime temperatures get increasingly colder from 1998 to 2000, and the greatest stratification and coldest subsurface temperatures occur in 1998. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis fields do not reproduce the high spatial flux variability observed in situ or with satellite measurements. Reconciling these differences and their impacts on the climate variability of this region provides challenges to coupled oceanatmosphere models and their supporting observing systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During August of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) was affected by two subsequent storms, Hurricanes Marco and Laura. Hurricane Marco entered the GoM first (22 August) and was briefly promoted to a Category 1 storm. Hurricane Laura followed Marco closely (25 August) and attained Category 4 status after a period of rapid intensification. Typically, hurricanes do not form this close together; this study aims to explain the existence of both hurricanes through the analysis of air-sea fluxes, local thermodynamics, and upper-level circulation. The GoM and its quality of warm, high ocean heat content waters proved to be a resilient and powerful reservoir of heat and moisture fuel for both hurricanes; however, an area of lower ocean heat content due to circulation dynamics was crucial in the evolution of both Marco and Laura. An analysis of wind shear further explained the evolution of both hurricanes. Furthermore, a suite of satellite observations and ocean model outputs were used to evaluate the biophysical modulations in the GoM. The cold core eddy (CCE) and Mississippi River surface plume had the greatest biophysical oceanic responses; the oceanic modulations were initialized by Marco and extended temporally and spatially by Laura. Reduced sea surface temperatures (SST), changes in sea surface salinity (SSS), and changes in Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations are related to translation speeds, and respective contributions of hurricane winds and precipitation are evaluated in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work provides an assessment of the two most intense seasonal droughts that occurred over the Balsas River Basin (BRB) in the period 1980–2017. The detection of the drought events was performed using the 6 month scale standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI-6) and the 6 month standardized precipitation index (SPI-6) in October. Both indices were quite similar during the studied period, highlighting the larger contribution of precipitation deficits vs. temperature excess to the drought occurrence in the basin. The origin of the atmospheric water arriving to the BRB (1 May 1980–31 October 2017) was investigated by using a Lagrangian diagnosis method. The BRB receives moisture from the Caribbean Sea and the rest of the tropical Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico, the eastern north Pacific and from three terrestrial evaporative sources: the region north of BRB, the south of BRB and the BRB itself. The terrestrial evaporative source of the BRB itself is by far the main moisture source. The two most intense drought events that occurred in the studied period were selected for further analysis. During the severe drought of 2005, the summertime sea surface temperature (SST) soared over the Caribbean Sea, extending eastward into a large swathe of tropical North Atlantic, which was accompanied by the record to date of hurricane activity. This heating generated a Rossby wave response with westward propagating anticyclonic/cyclonic gyres in the upper/lower troposphere. A cyclonic low-level circulation developed over the Gulf of Mexico and prevented the moisture from arriving to the BRB, with a consequent deficit in precipitation. Additionally, subsidence also prevented convection in most of the months of this drought period. During the extreme drought event of 1982, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) remained southern and stronger than the climatological mean over the eastern tropical Pacific, producing an intense regional Hadley circulation. The descent branch of this cell inhibited the development of convection over the BRB, although the moisture sources increased their contributions; however, these were bounded to the lower levels by a strong trade wind inversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal rainfall in the Caribbean Basin is known to be modulated by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and particularly those in the Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic and the Tropical North Atlantic. However, little is known about how these major oceans influence the seasonal precipitation of individual small island states within the region as climate variability at the island-scale may differ from the Caribbean as a whole. Correlation and composite analyses were determined using monthly rainfall data for the southernmost island of the Caribbean, Trinidad, and an extended area of global SSTAs. In addition to the subregions that are known to modulate Caribbean rainfall, our analyses show that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) located in the subtropical South Pacific, the South Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico also have weak (r2 < 0.5) yet significant influences on the islands' early rainy season (ERS) and late rainy season (LRS) precipitation. Composite maps confirm that the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico show significant SSTAs in December–January–February (DJF) and March–April–May (MAM) prior to the ERS and the LRS. Statistical models for seasonal forecasting of rainfall at the island scale could be improved by using the SSTAs of the Pacific and Atlantic subregions identified in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]