Can assimilation of satellite observations improve subsurface biological properties in a numerical model? A case study for the Gulf of Mexico.

Given current threats to ocean ecosystem health, there is a growing demand for accurate biogeochemical hindcasts, nowcasts, and predictions. Provision of such products requires data assimilation, i.e., a comprehensive strategy for incorporating observations into biogeochemical models, but current data streams of biogeochemical observations are generally considered insufficient for the operational provision of such products. This study investigates to what degree the assimilation of satellite observations in combination with a priori model calibration by sparse BGC-Argo profiles can improve subsurface biogeochemical properties. The multivariate deterministic ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) has been implemented to assimilate physical and biological observations into a three-dimensional coupled physical–biogeochemical model, the biogeochemical component of which has been calibrated by BGC-Argo float data for the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, observations of sea surface height, sea surface temperature, and surface chlorophyll were assimilated, and profiles of both physical and biological variables were updated based on the surface information. We assessed whether this leads to improved subsurface distributions, especially of biological properties, using observations from five BGC-Argo floats that were not assimilated. An alternative light parameterization that was tuned a priori using BGC-Argo observations was also applied to test the sensitivity of data assimilation impact on subsurface biological properties. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data improves model representation of major circulation features, which translate into improved three-dimensional distributions of temperature and salinity. The multivariate assimilation also improves the agreement of subsurface nitrate through its tight correlation with temperature, but the improvements in subsurface chlorophyll were modest initially due to suboptimal choices of the model's optical module. Repeating the assimilation run by using the alternative light parameterization greatly improved the subsurface distribution of chlorophyll. Therefore, even sparse BGC-Argo observations can provide substantial benefits for biogeochemical prediction by enabling a priori model tuning. Given that, so far, the abundance of BGC-Argo profiles in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere has been insufficient for sequential assimilation, updating 3D biological properties in a model that has been well calibrated is an intermediate step toward full assimilation of the new data types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]