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Commercial paper is a short-term debt instrument issued by large corporations. The commercial paper market has long been viewed as a bastion of high liquidity and low risk. But twice during the financial crisis of 2007–2009, the commercial paper market nearly dried up and ceased being perceived as a safe haven. Major interventions by the Federal Reserve, including large outright purchases of commercial paper, were eventually used to support both issuers of and investors in commercial paper. We will offer an analysis of the commercial paper market during the financial crisis. First, we describe the institutional background of the commercial paper market. Second, we analyze the supply and demand sides of the market. Third, we examine the most important developments during the crisis of 2007–2009. Last, we discuss three explanations of the decline in the commercial paper market: substitution to alternative sources of financing by commercial paper issuers, adverse selection, and institutional constraints among money market funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since its inception in the early nineteenth century, the U.S. commercial paper market has grown to become a key source of short-term funding for major businesses, with issuance averaging over $100 billion per day. In the fall of 2008, the commercial paper market achieved national prominence when increasing market stress caused some to fear that, given its size and importance, the market's failure would sharply worsen the recession. The Department of the Treasury and Federal Reserve enacted programs targeted at providing credit and liquidity to restore investor confidence. The authors review the history of the commercial paper market, describe its structure and key relationships to money market mutual funds, and present a detailed discussion of the crisis in the market, including the resulting Federal Reserve programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widespread and substantial effect of the global financial crisis in history underlines the importance of forecasting financial crisis effectively. In this paper, we propose temporal convolutional network (TCN), which based on a convolutional neural network, to construct an early warning system for financial crises. The proposed TCN is compared with logit model and other deep learning models. The Shapley value decomposition is calculated for the interpretability of the early warning system. Experimental results show that the proposed TCN outperforms other models, and the stock price and the real GDP growth have the largest contributions in the crises prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyse why an understanding of the global 'non-system', in which we now live, took so long to arrive after the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971. We first describe how knowledge of how an inflation-targeting regime would operate—what we call 'Taylor-rule macroeconomics'—was only gradually created during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s. We then describe how, subsequent to this, an awareness emerged, also gradually, of how the international non-system might work, depending, as it does, on Taylor-rule macroeconomics being already in place. We then discuss the Great Moderation, making clear that a well-functioning global non-system would require not just inflation targeting and floating exchange rates in each country, but also adequate fiscal discipline, and a satisfactory form of financial regulation. We describe how a well-functioning version of this global non-system would actually fit together. We then discuss how this non-system has responded to two enormous challenges of the last 15 years, namely the Global Financial Crisis and the Covid pandemic. This discussion of what has happened in the recent past provides the background to a discussion, in the companion paper by Subacchi and Vines in this issue of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy , of the challenges that the global non-system will face in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addressed the globally spread challenges that countries face, such as environmental issues, which have been accumulated for years, and financial crises, which have been repeated many times in the world's economy during capitalism. Indeed, through a qualitative scientific approach, the article argued that laissez-faire economics or laissez-faire capitalism (as an economic system or doctrine, i.e., a liberal and classical view of economics) is not the right way to overcome and deal with these problems. Instead, some interventions in the economy and cooperation between countries and the respective institutions are required so that these difficulties (environmental issues and financial crises), which do not recognize borders, are prevented and afforded properly. Thus, this publication presented how challenging environmental issues are, which are spread worldwide, and it also discussed financial crises, such as the 2008 Financial Crisis (also known as the Great Recession) and the Great Depression of the 1930s. Overall, this paper concluded that dual crises (environmental and financial crises) are the robust proofs that dismiss the extreme form of capitalism or economics, known as laissez-faire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the occurrence of the global financial crisis in 2008, the U.S. unconventional monetary policy affected the Chinese market. Based on a monthly data sample from 2008M1 to 2015M12, in this paper we identify U.S. and Chinese monetary policy shocks by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model with multi-external instrumental variables along with principal component analysis (PCA) combined with high-frequency financial market data. The empirical results show that the unconventional monetary policies had a negative effect on China's inflation and output due to the signal effect, and China's stock and commodity markets increased in the short term. During the same period, China's monetary policy had a greater impact on the domestic economy and financial markets. The conclusion of this paper provides a significant reference for relevant departments to make decisions amidst the new wave of unconventional U.S. monetary policies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing global concern about climate change and the circular economy have successfully established itselves in international and national policies over the last decade, with the aim of reshaping the production and consumer behavior. The circular economy is one of the core pillars of European Union policy and its success depends on the energy efficiency, reducing production costs, and maintaining employment levels by ensuring continuous strong economic independency of the region. While crises are unavoidable and continue to appear, this paper aims to project the impact of any crisis on sustainability transitions using data analysis of the Global Financial crisis from 2008 to 2009 and discuss how the success of the circular economy implementation and environmental policies could be affected. The paper notes that the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 had a short-term positive impact on environmental degradation and that economic interests overshadowed environmental goals. Due to the recent events of the ongoing Russia and Ukraine war, COVID-19 societal and industrial behavior has shifted from sustainable to linear and has taken a step backward in reducing environmental pollution and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Analysis of already present data and the context of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, reviewing of COVID-19 impact on the global economy, health sector, and environmental policies allows us to predict the consequences, as it relates to the future of circular economy policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Financial stability has become a focal point for central banks since the global financial crisis. However, the optimal mix between monetary and financial stability policies remains unclear. In this study, the "soft" approach to such policy mix was tested – how often monetary policy (in inflation reports) analyses financial stability issues. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective. Design/methodology/approach: A total of 648 inflation reports published by 11 central banks from post-communist countries in 1998-2019 were reviewed using a text-mining method. Findings: Results show that financial stability topics (mainly cyclical aspects of systemic risk) on average account for only 2%of inflation reports' content. Although this share has grown somewhat since the global financial crisis (in CZ, HU and PL), it still remains at a low level. Thus, not enough evidence was found on the use of a "soft" policy mix in post-communist countries. Practical implications: Given the strong interactions between price and financial stability, this paper emphasizes the need to increase the attention of monetary policymakers to financial stability issues. Originality/value: The study combines two research areas, i.e. monetary policy and modern text mining techniques on a sample of post-communist countries, something which to the best of the authors' knowledge has not been sufficiently explored in the literature before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the smart economic development (SED) patterns in Europe in relation to competitiveness. Motivational focus corresponds to global events: the fourth industrial revolution, transition to a low-carbon economy, economic shocks (such as the 2008 financial crisis, Brexit or the coronavirus pandemic), which requires rethinking development policies, targeting competitiveness increase and reducing imbalances in economic development. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis includes self-organising neural networks cluster analysis and correlations, comparative analysis of SED indicators structure and cumulative index estimation with World Economic Forum (WEF) global competitiveness index. The panel data set of 19 years from 2000 to 2018 for 30 European countries. Findings: Overall, cross-country examination suggests that European countries of higher competitiveness illustrate higher estimates in SED. The key determinants are juridical fairness, social responsibility, competence building, intelligence and welfare employment to develop smart patterns for reaching higher competitiveness. Research limitations/implications: The limitations relate to the particular sample of European countries and gathering statistical data and a methodology of the SED index calculation. In addition, the paper contains a macroeconomic environment focus on competitiveness estimation. Further research may be improved with micro and mezzo environment incorporation at a cross-country analysis level. Practical implications: By linking well-known terms of competitiveness and economic development with a concept of smartness, new approaches to policymaking emerged. The methodology presented in this paper has implications for territorial cohesion policies, competitiveness and branching strategies. The combination of SED sub-indexes and WEF GCI might aid a more accurate ex ante measurement. Social implications: The findings are essential for fostering a smart approach in economic development for long-term competitiveness. Originality/value: This paper provides original empirical evidence about the relationship between SED and competitiveness and adds new knowledge that smartness becomes a way for building countries' competitiveness by identified two profiles of SED patterns by development stages, namely, integrated to economic development and institutional-based which is divided to focus and balanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes household portfolio dynamics in Europe, focusing on the period from 2010 to 2017 using data from the European Central Bank's Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). The study examines the evolution of household portfolios after the 2008 financial crisis, with housing assets found to be one of the key drivers. On the aggregate level, the household portfolio remained stable between 2010 and 2017. Housing importance remained crucial during all the time and drove the majority of portfolio performance for households in 40-99 percentiles of the wealth distribution. With the evolution of household portfolios, age cohorts 45-54, 65 and older strengthen their positions by increasing the share of their owned assets in comparison to other age cohorts, which lost part of their shares. I conclude the paper with some stylized facts showing the relationship between home ownership, the share of portfolio in housing assets and wealth inequality between countries. The stylized facts provide evidence that household portfolios significantly concentrated in housing assets during the analyzed decade. Furthermore, the transition of households from renters to home owners contributed significantly to the changes in wealth inequality that occurred after the 2008 financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides both stylized facts and estimations of the endogenous nexus of the financial fragility hypothesis (FFH) with public social spending (PSS) for a paradigmatic Eurozone member country. The sample period 1995–2022 includes three major economic crises, the global financial crisis 2007–2009, the European debt crisis 2010–2015 and the COVID-19 pandemic one in 2020–2022. Within the context of the financialization literature, this paper is founded, for the first time, as far as we know, on the "financial fragility hypothesis", combining the effects of both Minsky's "financial instability", as it has been extended for open economies, and the "Eurozone fragility one". Similar to the relevant literature, the findings show that the PSS is associated, in a long-term steady state (cointegration), with the financial fragility process, starting, firstly, from the hedge-financing structure with high profitability of firms, when PSS decreases; secondly, to hyper-speculative financing with risky options, supported by bank credit and openness, indebtedness or discretionary fiscal policy, when PSS rises; thirdly, to the hyper-speculative or even Ponzi financing structures with over-indebtedness (leverage) from the global capital market, inflated asset prices and internationalized fragility, when PSS also rises, and so on. Our conclusion validates Minsky's famous saying, "stability breeds instability", also in the architecturally incomplete Eurozone. Policy implications are straightforward and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the nature and characteristics of the volatility transmission channels of major crash events in international stock markets between 03 July 1997 and 09 March 2021. Using dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) for conditional correlations and volatility clustering, GARCH-BEKK for the direction of transmission of disturbances, and the Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index for the level of volatility contagion, the paper finds that the climbs in external shock transmissions have long-lasting impacts in domestic markets due to the contagion effect during crisis periods. The findings also reveal that the heavier magnitude of financial stress is transmitted between Asian countries via the Hong Kong stock market. Additionally, the degree of volatility spillovers between advanced and emerging equity markets is smaller compared to the pure spillovers between advanced markets or emerging markets, offering a window of opportunity for international market participants in terms of portfolio diversification and risk management applications. Furthermore, the study introduces a novel early warning system created by integrating DCC correlations with a state-of-the-art deep learning model to predict the global financial crisis and COVID-19 crisis. The experimental analysis of long short-term memory network finds evidence of contagion risk by verifying bursts in volatility spillovers and generating signals with high accuracy before the 12-month crisis period. This provides supplementary information that contributes to the decision-making process of practitioners, as well as offering indicative evidence that facilitates the assessment of market vulnerability for policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The U.K. food system exhibits strong unsustainability indicators across multiple dimensions, both in terms of food and nutritional insecurity and in terms of adverse climate change, biodiversity, and physical resource impacts. These indices of an unsustainable and inequitable social metabolism are the result of capitalist agriculture and society in general and, more specifically, of neoliberal and austerity policies adopted with vigour since the global financial crisis. The causal, capitalistic, and, latterly, more neoliberal bases of the U.K. food system are delineated in the first section of the paper. These bases are then detailed in terms of their impacts in exacerbating climate change, biodiversity (and resource) decline and loss, and food and nutritional insecurity. The political narratives and policy frameworks available to dissemble, mitigate, or, more rarely, to address (resolve) these impacts are then delineated. It is argued that the only policy framework available that strongly integrates food security (social equity) with ecological sustainability is political agroecology and an accompanying degrowth strategy. The final section of the paper details what political agroecology and degrowth might entail for the U.K. food system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Within the framework of EU policies and measures to develop a just and fair green energy transition model. This paper aims to offer valuable insights into a paramount concern not so well debated in the literature, i.e. the spatial variation of energy poverty. Design/methodology/approach: This empirical analysis investigates the regional variation of energy poverty we draw on a sample of more than 300,000 Spanish households, extracted from the Spanish Household Budget Survey (HBS) for the period 2006–2022. To characterize the probability of a household finding itself in a situation of energy poverty the authors use a discrete choice univariate probit model. Findings: The results confirm that energy poverty is a phenomenon that is asymmetrically distributed across Spain, and mainly occurs in un-densely populated regions. In addition, the findings demonstrate that the incidence of energy poverty drivers is highly heterogeneous across regions. Research limitations/implications: The paper ends with some recommendations for policymakers suggesting that countries need to design an energy poverty policy for the households that jointly pursue both a correct identification of vulnerable groups and a match with the type of measure to the characteristics of each region. Originality/value: This study enhances previous research by considering the case of areas at a lower level of aggregation (i.e. on the NUTS two regions in Spain called autonomous communities) and offers the opportunity to tailor policies to those regions most in need. Furthermore, to provide a more realistic picture of the complex phenomenon of energy poverty, the authors use the information for the period 2006–2022 differentiating by economic micro-cycle. This timespan allows the authors to understand the dynamics of energy poverty in periods of economic crisis, including the effects of the 2008 crisis and the present global energy crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper goes beyond the boundaries of an exploratory analysis to operationalize the association between corporate working capital and return on assets. This paper optimizes the impact of the Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) on Return on Assets (ROA). The paper develops a mathematical formulation that connects the components of CCC to ROA. The sample includes the non-financial firms listed in DJIA30 and NASDAQ100. The data covers the quarterly periods from June 1992 to March 2018. The paper uses standard statistical tests including linearity (RESET), the Hausman test for fixed and random effects, and the Breusch–Pagan/Cook–Weisberg test for heteroskedasticity. The estimation is carried out using the GLS estimator. This study finds: (a) the optimal, rather than observed, components of CCC are robust and coherent, (b) if firms were to optimize the components of CCC, the ROA improves significantly, (c) the positive estimates of size show that the components of CCC help firms grow, (d) the effects of either observed or optimal CCC on ROA are reached in the short term (four quarters), (e) the results show that observed as well as optimal CCC are able to detect the structural break in the 2008 financial crisis, and (f) the results of a logit analysis show that the optimization algorithm results in significant increases in ROA that are associated with increases in degree of financial leverage and decreases in short-term debt ratio. This paper contributes to the related literature in two ways. First, the paper develops a mathematical structure that associates corporate CCC and ROA in a way that offers a guide to corporate financial managers regarding structural management of corporate CCC. Second, the paper examines the impacts of optimized CCC on ROA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the challenges and prospects associated with the adoption of Islamic banking in Afghanistan. Despite the global growth and acceptance of Islamic banking by approximately 50 countries by 1997, Afghanistan only embraced it between 2008–2009. The decision to convert conventional banks to Islamic ones, driven by the involvement of interest rates (riba) in the prevailing system, necessitates a thorough examination of the challenges and the need for an appropriate response. The study employs qualitative, analytical, and exploratory methods, reviewing secondary sources and conducting unstructured interviews with key stakeholders, including officials from the Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB), staff of Islamic banking institutions, experts in Islamic banking and finance, and consumers. The findings reveal that the challenges in promoting Islamic banking in Afghanistan are more complex and multi-layered than commonly understood, stemming from the legal system, regulatory capacities and mindset, banking services, and public perception. The paper emphasizes the importance of addressing these challenges comprehensively to safeguard the already fragile economic and financial sector. Failure to do so may lead to further deterioration. This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by shedding light on the unique challenges and prospects of Islamic banking in Afghanistan, providing valuable insights for policymakers, regulators, and practitioners in shaping an effective transformation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the role of the U.S. dollar in fostering global economic growth during the post-war period. The existing literature lacks a comprehensive understanding of the true implications of the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency and a dearth of studies examining its impact. In this study, we explore the dynamic long-run and short-run relationships between cross-border U.S. dollar claims, global GDP, and global trade while gauging the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, we use ARDL methodology for a data set that spans the period of 1980 to 2022. The estimation results reveal a robust long-run relationship between U.S. dollar claims, global GDP and global trade and no clear evidence of asymmetric effects. Our findings are of great significance for monetary authorities, emphasising the need for a nuanced understanding of the implications of the U.S. dollar's conducive role in shaping global economic dynamics and fostering growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of macroeconomic cyclical indicators and country governance on bank non-performing loans in African countries. Design/methodology/approach: Data was collected from the 53 African countries covering 2005–2021. The paper develops an empirical model to examine the impact of country governance in reducing macroeconomic cycle-induced adverse effects on bank credit risk. This research estimates Random Effects models and the General Method of Moment to examine the link between microeconomic and governance factors on bank non-performing loans. Stata version 15.1 was used to conduct panel regression analysis. Findings: The findings of the study revealed that the generalized method of moments findings contributes valuable insights into the persistence of NPLs over time and the specific effects of variables on NPL levels. The study findings highlight that the debt-to-GDP ratio, unemployment, regulatory quality, government effectiveness and inflation have significant relationships with NPLs, shedding light on their specific contributions to credit risk dynamics. Research limitations/implications: The focus on a specific set of determinants for NPLs, which may not capture all the factors that influence NPL levels. Thus, the study did not consider the impact of macroeconomic shocks, such as natural disasters or global economic crises, which can have a significant impact on NPLs. Practical implications: Policymakers should prioritize maintaining sustainable debt levels, promoting employment growth and controlling inflation rates to mitigate credit risk and reduce nonperforming loans. Also, enhancing regulatory quality and government effectiveness is crucial in ensuring financial stability and minimizing non-performing loans in Africa. Originality/value: This paper provides a new possible solution to minimise bank non-performing loans risk by examining interactions of country governance regarding the macroeconomic cycle behaviour. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-11-2022-0729 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Comunicación is the property of Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

After the 2008 financial crisis, under the double effects of enterprise value maximization and the decline of real economy marginal profit, the relationship between enterprise financialization and technological innovation is worth exploring in depth. On the basis of testing the impact of non-financial enterprise financialization on technological innovation, this paper explores the impact mechanism as well as the heterogeneity among different types of enterprises. This paper selects non-financial listed enterprises in China from 2007 to 2017 as samples to study the influence of enterprise financialization on technological innovation and its mechanism through panel regression and mediating effect models. Moreover, the heterogeneity among different types of enterprises is further studied. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the financialization of enterprises has a significant "crowding out" effect on technological innovation. Second, the "crowding out" effect of enterprise financialization on technological innovation is formed through capital structure rather than performance. Third, enterprises are faced with different attributes and external environment, thus the influence of financialization on technological innovation is heterogeneous. Fourth, there are significant differences in the impact of financialization on technological innovation between enterprises' attributes and the external environment they face, and the deviation degree caused by attributes is much greater than that caused by the external environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates five different Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Generalized Auto Regressive Condition-al Heteroscedacity (GARCH models (GARCH, exponential GARCH or EGARCH, integrated GARCH or IGARCH, Component GARCH or CGARCH and the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle GARCH or GJR-GARCH) along with six distributions (normal, Student's t, GED and their skewed forms), which are used to estimate the price dynamics of the Bulgarian stock index SOFIX. We use the best model to predict how much time it will take, after the latest crisis, for the SOFIX index to reach its historical peak once again. The empirical data cover the period between the years 2000 and 2024, including the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The purpose is to answer which of the five models is the best at analysing the SOFIX price and which distribution is most appropriate. The results, based on the BIC and AIC, show that the ARMA(1,1)-CGARCH(1,1) specification with the Student's t-distribution is preferred for modelling. From the results obtained, we can confirm that the CGARCH model specification supports a more appropriate description of SOFIX volatility than a simple GARCH model. We find that long-term shocks have a more persistent impact on volatility than the effect of short-term shocks. Furthermore, for the same magnitude, negative shocks to SOFIX prices have a more significant impact on volatility than positive shocks. According to the results, when predicting future values of SOFIX, it is necessary to include both a first-order autoregressive component and a first-order moving average in the mean equation. With the help of 5000 simulations, it is estimated that the chances of SOFIX reaching its historical peak value of 1976.73 (08.10.2007) are higher than 90% at 13.08.2087. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the linear and non-linear relationship between non-performing loans and bank profitability measured by the Net Interest Margin for a sample of 74 Middle Eastern and North African banks over the period of 2005–2020. We used the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) as a linear approach and the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model as a non-linear approach. The empirical results of the SGMM approach indicated that the ratio of NPLs negatively affects bank profitability. The findings of the non-linear relationship based on the PSTR model confirmed the existence of a threshold effect. We found that below the threshold of 4.42%, the effect of NPLs is negative but not significant, while after surpassing this threshold, the effect becomes negative and significant. As for bank specifics, we revealed that bank size is positively and significantly associated with bank profitability. For industry factors, we found that more bank concentration decreases bank profitability. Regarding the financial environment, we concluded that the global financial crisis exerted a negative impact on bank profitability. Moreover, we revealed a positive and significant impact of GDP on bank profitability as well as a negative impact of inflation on bank profitability. This study has some limitations regarding the social, economic, and financial differences of the whole sample, which includes banks from the Middle East and others from North Africa. Hence, decomposing the whole sample into two sub-samples could improve the results of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

with the introduction of the euro as the domestic currency, economies have faced inflationary pressures caused by price convergence towards higher levels. During the last period of significant negative shocks from the environment, by entering the euro area, the negative effects of the likelihood of inflation caused by the introduction of the euro may be absent. the aim of this paper is to prove that inflation caused by joining the euro area will not materialize due to the negative effects of external shocks. A panel analysis with a fixed effects model was conducted for two models. Model 1 represents the countries that introduced the euro before the escalation of the global financial crisis and Model 2 represents the countries that introduced the euro after the development of the global financial crisis. the research confirmed that due to current negative external shocks and rising long-term interest rates in financial markets, the effect of inflation due to the introduction of the euro will be absent among EU members that will adopt the euro as a common currency in the next few years. The results of the research contribute to the scientific prediction of business and financial trends. The creators of macroeconomic models and monetary policy can use the results to define measures, instruments and activities more precisely for achieving and maintaining macroeconomic balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the convergence of tax systems in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) over the period 1995–2018. Due to the increasing impact of tax competition, we have focused on income taxes, in particular, corporate ones. We have identified the factors that influence the taxation system and trends in income taxation in the CEECs by adapting the hidden Markov model approach. We find that many CEECs have reduced income taxation in the analysis period, mainly by lowering tax rates. Corporate income taxes have also decreased in many CEECs in the same period; however, the reverse has been observed too. Both convergence and divergence have been identified among the CEECs over the period considered. The speed of these processes based on the used variables varied depending on both exogenous and endogenous factors. These factors have been diagnosed as being specific to the periods of tax reforms, i.e., before and after accession to the European Union (EU) and the global financial crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the financial crisis of 2007/2008, we have been dealing - at the level of the European Union - with a special "dialogue" between the European and German courts. The subject of this "dialogue" is the decisions of the European Central Bank on the program for the purchase of public sector assets on secondary markets. The ECB's activity, as well as the involvement of the national central banks of the Eurosystem in the implementation of these decisions, has been met with dissatisfaction by German politicians, culminating in the title judgment of the Constitutional Court of the Federal Republic of Germany. In the paper, the author analyzed the judgments, particularly from the perspective of the process of integration of the European Union financial market and the importance of the judgments for this process taking into account the key principles of EU law: proportionality and supremacy of EU law. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A call for papers on a special issue regarding trust in organizations and institutions during the global financial crisis is presented.

Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1-2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The association between economic growth and immigration has been a long-time debatable area among economists. Yet, the asymmetric connection stays somewhat ignored area in this strand of the literature. The investigation of a nonlinear and asymmetric relationship between economic growth and immigration is motivated by empirical insights. The structural change and resulted nonlinear behavior in the real GDP per capita and immigration series is due to idiosyncratic shocks in data. Events such as the global financial crisis (2008–2009), Asian currency crisis (1997–98), Dot-com bubble burst (2001), and sudden extreme events (terrorist attack on September 11, 2001) can cause structural breaks in the series and exhibit nonlinear behavior. Thus, in this paper we examine the asymmetric association of the immigration-GDP per capita nexus via utilizing the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL). The asymmetric influence of GDP was generated by the disintegrations of GDP into positive and negative changes. The paper finds evidence of long-run relationship (cointegration), using annual data from 1947- 2018. The empirical analysis presents verification of long- and short-run asymmetric effect. The paper finds that positive shocks of real GDP per capita affects immigration, while no such effect is found for the negative changes, both in the short- and long-run. Finally, the vector error correction model (VECM) illustrates significant long-and short-run unidirectional causality running from positive change of GDP per capita to immigration. However, the VECM model suggests a significant long-run bidirectional causality between immigration and GDP per capita decrease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using Montenegro as a case study, this paper evaluates the viability of currency substitution, in this case euroization, as a response to increased financial volatility. Proponents of euroization outline a series of expected benefits, while critics point to what they perceive as much larger costs. The paper contrasts the macroeconomic developments of Montenegro and how it fared during the Global Financial Crisis and the shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic with the performance of its regional peers and the euro area overall. The findings are contrasted to how the various expectations played out for Montenegro, drawing further lessons on the role of monetary policy and domestic monetary sovereignty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan exports sophisticated capital goods. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Japanese companies have offshored the production of lower-end goods and parts and components to Asian countries. Because of this, several researchers argued that a weaker yen no longer stimulates machinery exports much because an increase in Japanese exports increases parts and components imports from overseas Asian subsidiaries. This paper finds that, after the GFC, a weaker yen no longer increases Japanese machinery exports to Asia but continues to stimulate exports outside of Asia. Thus, the weaker yen since 2020 does not help Asian firms to import vital Japanese capital goods but does increase the profitability of Japanese manufacturers and their exports to non-Asian countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Relaciones Internacionales (1699-3950) is the property of Autonomous University of Madrid, Spain, International Relations Studies Group (GERI) Law Faculty and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Portuguese companies are increasingly responding to the demand of stakeholders for transparent information about companies' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance by issuing non-financial reports (NFRs). While the number of NFRs published annually has been increasing over the last two decades, their quality and companies' ESG performance have been questioned, especially in times of crisis. To address these concerns, several jurisdictions have introduced mandatory NFR rules, such as the European Directive 2014/95/EU. Employing an institutional theory lens, this paper's research objective is to evaluate whether the last decade's crises and whether the fact that NFRs became mandatory for certain entities positively affected companies' activities covered in the ESG reporting scope. We used panel data regression models on 45 listed companies in Portugal during the period 2008–2021. Our results show that the ESG reporting scope is not positively influenced by the transition from NFRs to a mandatory and global financial crisis (GFC). However, the COVID-19 crisis positively affected NFR quality. These results have major implications for practitioners, reflecting the importance of promoting these tools in an organization to improve non-financial performance and companies' sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the resilience of clusters and cluster policies in the face of external shocks, such as the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. It explores the concept of resilience in clusters and the factors that contribute to their ability to withstand and recover from crises. The article presents empirical studies that examine the response of clusters to external shocks and highlights the importance of factors such as sectoral diversification, innovation, workforce qualifications, and social networks in enhancing cluster resilience. It also discusses the potential of ambidexterity and digital transformation in cluster policies, as well as the role of cluster management organizations in promoting collective shared value. The article concludes by suggesting the need for further research to understand the drivers and outcomes of resilience in clusters and to develop effective policies that balance economic and societal objectives. [Extracted from the article]

There has been a change in international politics since the 2008 financial crisis, thanks to a greater spread of economic resources and military capabilities. For many, it is a radical transformation that could spell the end of US hegemony in Latin America. This paper examines the proposition, beginning with a review of the concept of hegemony, which rather than being viewed as a structural characteristic is conceived of here as a "nuanced hegemony", in other words a network of asymmetric and hierarchical relations. We can observe not just one transformation then, but the emergence of a hemispheric context that could be described as "differentiated hegemony". The United States still occupies a central position, but its foreign policy is marked by subregional fragmentation and the externalisation of electoral priorities. The paper explores the effects at subregional level, focusing on the opportunities and challenges it presents to Latin American countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The supply chain process has been widely modeled, especially with respect to the optimization of system performance. Recent years have highlighted the outbreak of many crises, such as the financial crisis of 2008, COVID-19, and the semiconductor shortage. The impact of such crises has become more challenging for manufacturers, particularly in the automotive industry. In this context, the present study was undertaken with the specific aim of providing an integrated approach for resilient decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU), especially in the downstream supply chain. Methods: The research is based on design science research (DSR) and case study methodologies. A design methodology was used to develop the framework. A case study is included to prove the pertinence of the framework. Results: The findings of this study demonstrate that the suggested comprehensive approach is helpful for companies and could help top management with strategic decision-making when customers decide to increase or decrease demand. This paper develops and models two approaches that help firms to manage and make resilient decisions when the supply chain is facing deep uncertainty, such as the bullwhip effect. Finally, the proposed models are implemented in a real-life case study within an automotive company to illustrate the applicability and efficacy of the proposed approach. Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting this approach. The paper is original and contributes towards sharing a new approach to understanding the supply chain within an uncertain context. As part of its contribution, the study draws attention to how managers and executors should integrate this approach into the global strategy of a company. Moreover, it explores some of the most complex variables that affect supply chain performance under high demand variation so it is possible to clearly show the risks associated with obsolete materials and products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we compare the dynamics of the growth rates of the original Divisia monetary aggregates, the credit card-augmented Divisia monetary aggregates, and the credit card-augmented Divisia inside monetary aggregates. This analysis is based on the methods of recurrence plots, recurrence quantification analysis, and visual boundary recurrence plots which are phase space methods designed to depict the underlying dynamics of the system under study. We identify the events that affected Divisia money growth and point out the differences among the different Divisia monetary aggregates based on the recurrence and visual boundary recurrence plots. We argue that the broad Divisia monetary aggregates could be used for monetary policy and business cycle analysis as they are exhibiting less fluctuation compared to the narrow Divisia monetary aggregates. They could positively affect policy decisions regarding environmental choices and sustainability. We also point out the changes in the monetary dynamics locating the 2008 global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Journal of Market Access and Health Policy (JMAHP) is a peer-reviewed open access journal that focuses on the concept of 'market access' from various perspectives. It serves as a reference for industry, regulators, and academics, providing research articles, discussion papers, and guidelines. The journal aims to promote transparency and consolidate knowledge in the field of market access and health policies. It covers topics such as healthcare expenditures, cost-containment measures, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health market. JMAHP is freely available worldwide and is indexed in major databases. [Extracted from the article]

This paper analyzes the relationship between the nonfinancial corporate sector leverage (NFCL) and financial stability in the post crisis era, revealing considerable heterogeneity across the level of financial intermediation (FI). First, we use the financial soundness indicators proposed by the IMF and the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM) to measure the financial stability represented by the FSI of OECD countries. Second, in a panel quantile regression framework, we examine the effects of NFCL on FSI for different quantiles of FSI. The result shows that the impact of NFCL on financial stability at different levels is asymmetric, which reflects differences in the supply and demand of debt. Third, this paper further discusses the transmission mechanism of FI between NFCL and FSI based on the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR). We find that the transmission channel of NFCL to financial stability depends on the level of financial intermediation, but with diverging magnitude for the different levels of FI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides new evidence on the role of expectations for the change in unemployment dynamics over time. We show that unanticipated changes in expectations display large and persistent effects on the unemployment rate in the 2007–09 downturn, contributing to maintain unemployment high well after the most recent recession. We also find that the changes in the autocorrelation of the unemployment rate and its correlation with inflation generated by unanticipated changes in unemployment expectations help to rationalize the pattern observed in the data in the post‐1990 recessions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of state administration and its public institutions in certain circumstances represents one of the most significant issues in the last twenty years following the serious security crisis caused by terrorist attacks in New York on 11 September 2001. The accent of public administration reforms was on efficiency and effectiveness of public institutions. Reforms were divided into deregulation and liberalization of public services, territorial decentralization, and regionalization with the strengthening of local government institutions and reform of central government administration. After the security crisis in 2001, financial crisis in 2008 and health crisis in 2020, the role of state institutions and public authorities in governing the state was redefined. The leading motives of general liberalization of public services, deregulation, and various forms of decentralization of public institutions abounded due to the new doctrinal approach of governmental organization. New strengthening of public authorities and public institutions became the new mainstream in the organization and functioning of the state. This paper analyzes how the role of the state can be modified due to the dynamics of social, political, and economic changes in society. New governmental reforms are contrary to earlier political and administrative measures, which include the strengthening of public institutions and concentration of public authorities. The government takes on a regulatory function in many aspects of social, political, and economic life. This situation leads to a new organization of the state, where public authorities take on a significant part of the responsibility to regulate various aspects of economic and social activities. At the focus of this paper will be how the dynamics of specific circumstances in society can affect the developing processes of the state and their public institutions. Those processes have economic, social, and political dimensions. The economic dimension includes regulatory measures on the market which contributes to development of the framework for economic development. The social dimension includes measures of social policy focused on improving the social position of citizens according to the economic development of society. The political dimension includes various aspects of security policy, with various protective measures in the community, which depends on the type of treatment for security of citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a hybrid of a Wavelet Decomposition–Generalised Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity–Extreme Value Theory (WD-ARMA-GARCH-EVT) model is applied to estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) of BitCoin (BTC/USD) and the South African Rand (ZAR/USD). The aim is to measure and compare the riskiness of the two currencies. New and improved estimation techniques for VaR have been suggested in the last decade in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. This paper aims to provide an improved alternative to the already existing statistical tools in estimating a currency VaR empirically. Maximal Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform (MODWT) and two mother wavelet filters on the returns series are considered in this paper, viz., the Haar and Daubechies (d4). The findings show that BitCoin/USD is riskier than ZAR/USD since it has a higher VaR per unit invested in each currency. At the 99% significance level, BitCoin/USD has average values of VaR of 2.71% and 4.98% for the WD-ARMA-GARCH-GPD and WD-ARMA-GARCH-GEVD models, respectively; and this is slightly higher than the respective 2.69% and 3.59% for the ZAR/USD. The average BitCoin/USD returns of 0.001990 are higher than ZAR/USD returns of −0.000125. These findings are consistent with the mean-variance portfolio theory, which suggests a higher yield for riskier assets. Based on the p-values of the Kupiec likelihood ratio test, the hybrid model adequacy is largely accepted, as p-values are greater than 0.05, except for the WD-ARMA-GARCH-GEVD models at a 99% significance level for both currencies. The findings are helpful to financial risk practitioners and forex traders in formulating their diversification and hedging strategies and ascertaining the risk-adjusted capital requirement to be set aside as a cushion in the event of the occurrence of an actual loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 caused major economic disturbances in the oil market. In this paper, we consider five variables that describe the microeconomics of the supply of and demand for oil, and evaluate their importance before, during and after the global financial crisis. We consider five dissimilar regimes during the period of January 1986 to the end of 2020: two regimes prior to the global financial crisis, the regime during the crisis, and two regimes after the crisis. The main hypothesis tested is that oil fundamentals of supply and demand remained important, even though the five regimes were dissimilar. We built five boosted and over-fitted neural networks to capture the exact relationships between spot oil prices and oil data related to these prices. This analysis shows that, while the inputs into an accurate neural network can remain the same, the impact of each variable can change considerably during different regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus (COVID‐19) pandemic brought economic recession that affected nations, businesses, and households globally. The severity of this global economic crisis is large and the impact has been asymmetric across socioeconomic groups. We examine the distributional effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic across household types using a specially‐designed model that combines macro (computable general equilibrium) and micro (heterogenous households) approaches. Computable general equilibrium models are able to capture behavioural changes in macroeconomic and sectoral variables but they often lack the rich distributional detail found in microsimulation models. In this paper, we address this limitation by incorporating 10,046 actual households into a computable general equilibrium model to capture the heterogeneity through which the pandemic may influence household behaviour. We find that the income effects are asymmetric across income groups leading to a slight increase in income inequality. The distributional effects are more progressive for non‐wage income sources and uniform for wage income. For younger cohorts, income changes are dominated by employment effects whereas income changes for older cohorts are dominated by changes in capital rentals and government transfers. Spatially, the income effects follow a similar pattern for city and non‐city dwellers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomika is the property of Society of Economists 'Ekonomika' and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper investigates the weekly stock market data of the Hungarian stock index BUX, the Czech stock index PX and the Polish stock index WIG20 spanning from January 7, 2001 to April 18, 2021. The period of more than 20 years enabled to analyse the behaviour of returns and their volatility during both the calm as well as various crises/turmoil periods. Besides the traditional GARCH-type models (GARCH and GJR-GARCH) the two-regime Markov Switching GARCHtype models (MS-GARCH and MS-GJR-GARCH) were estimated in order to examine the volatility switches of the Central European transition stock markets. The t-distribution of error terms was used to capture the dynamics of analysed returns more precisely. The results proved high volatility persistence of individual markets which substantially differed across the both regimes. Furthermore, the GJR-GARCH and MS-GJR-GARCH models clearly confirmed the presence of the leverage effect. Consideration of the MS-GARCH-type models enabled to capture various volatility switches during the analysed period attributable mainly to the global financial crisis 2008-2009, to European debt crisis in 2011 and to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Interesting results were received for the Czech market with the strong leverage effect indicating completely different specification of volatility regimes by the MS-GJR-GARCH model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent health system shocks such as the Ebola outbreak of 2014-2016 and the global financial crisis of 2008 have generated global health interest in the concept of resilience. The concept is however not new, and has been applied to other sectors for a longer period of time. We conducted a review of empirical literature from both the health and other sectors to synthesize evidence on organizational resilience. Methods: We systematically searched for literature in PubMed, Econlit, EBSCOHOST databases, google, and Google Scholar and manually searched the reference lists of selected papers. We identified 34 papers that met our inclusion criteria. We analysed data from the selected papers by thematic review. Results: Resilience was generally taken to mean a system's ability to continue to meet its objectives in the face of challenges. The concepts of resilience that were used in the selected papers emphasized not just a system's capacity to withstand shocks, but also to adapt and transform. The resilience of organizations was influenced by the following factors: Material resources, preparedness and planning, information management, collateral pathways and redundancy, governance processes, leadership practices, organizational culture, human capital, social networks and collaboration. Conclusion: A common theme across the selected papers is the recognition of resilience as an emergent property of complex adaptive systems. Resilience is both a function of planning for and preparing for future crisis (planned resilience), and adapting to chronic stresses and acute shocks (adaptive resilience). Beyond resilience to acute shocks, the resilience of health systems to routine and chronic stress (everyday resilience) is also key. Health system software is as, if not more important, as its hardware in nurturing health system resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The real estate market of EU countries has undergone a severe global financial crisis 2008-2009, recovered successfully later, and now experiencing significant uncertainty due to the COVID-19 pandemic event. Significant volatility of the real estate business is once again evident, just as it was following the global financial crisis. The paper aims to provide a case study of a real estate project by giving insight into the Latvian real estate project that had been experiencing similar economic uncertainty, to demonstrate hybrid real options valuation (ROV) method to adapt real estate investments to changing circumstances and to develop the decision-making solution to similar EU real estate problems during the pandemic. The paper provides the "step-by-step" ROV application's methodology in real estate development projects. The presented methodology is a powerful managerial risk management tool for the executives of similar real estate development projects in the EU countries struggling to make investment decisions in the pandemic and postpandemic period. Since any estimation includes assumptions, ROV results should be interpreted and perceived as approximations only. The future works can provide robust ROV analyses and interpretations regarding the demand for real estate, showing quantitatively how competition can impact strategic investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]