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Background: To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed., Methods: We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012-2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022-2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels., Results: We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70-90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70-90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection., Conclusions: These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Norovirus is the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis outbreaks in the United States. We estimated the basic (R 0 ) and effective (R e ) reproduction numbers for 7,094 norovirus outbreaks reported to the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) during 2009-2017 and used regression models to assess whether transmission varied by outbreak setting. The median R 0 was 2.75 (interquartile range [IQR] 2.38-3.65), and median R e was 1.29 (IQR 1.12-1.74). Long-term care and assisted living facilities had an R 0  of 3.35 (95% CI 3.26-3.45), but R 0 did not differ substantially for outbreaks in other settings, except for outbreaks in schools, colleges, and universities, which had an R 0  of 2.92 (95% CI 2.82-3.03). Seasonally, R 0 was lowest (3.11 [95% CI 2.97-3.25]) in summer and peaked in fall and winter. Overall, we saw little variability in transmission across different outbreaks settings in the United States.

An estimated 179 million acute gastroenteritis (AGE) illnesses occur annually in the United States. The role of noroviruses in hospital-related AGE has not been well-documented in the U. S. We estimated the population incidence of community- acquired outpatient and inpatient norovirus AGE encounters, as well as hospital-acquired inpatient norovirus AGE among inpatients at four Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Centers (VAMCs). Fifty (4%) of 1,160 stool specimens collected ≤7 days from symptom onset tested positive for norovirus. During a one year period, the estimated incidence of outpatient, community- and hospital-acquired inpatient norovirus AGE was 188 cases, 11 cases, and 54 cases/ 100,000 patients, respectively. This study demonstrates the incidence of outpatient and community- and hospital-acquired inpatient norovirus AGE among the VA population seeking care at these four VAMCs.

The duration of immunity to norovirus (NoV) gastroenteritis has been believed to be from 6 months to 2 years. However, several observations are inconsistent with this short period. To gain better estimates of the duration of immunity to NoV, we developed a mathematical model of community NoV transmission. The model was parameterized from the literature and also fit to age-specific incidence data from England and Wales by using maximum likelihood. We developed several scenarios to determine the effect of unknowns regarding transmission and immunity on estimates of the duration of immunity. In the various models, duration of immunity to NoV gastroenteritis was estimated at 4.1 (95% CI 3.2-5.1) to 8.7 (95% CI 6.8-11.3) years. Moreover, we calculated that children (<5 years) are much more infectious than older children and adults. If a vaccine can achieve protection for duration of natural immunity indicated by our results, its potential health and economic benefits could be substantial.

In October 2009, a new genogroup II, type 4 (GII.4) norovirus variant was identified in the United States. We collected norovirus outbreak data from 30 states to assess whether this new strain was associated with increased acute gastroenteritis activity. No increase in norovirus outbreaks was observed during the 2009-2010 winter.

Background: Diarrhea remains an important cause of morbidity, but until the mid 1990s, hospital admissions for diarrhea in the US adult population were declining. We aimed to describe recent trends in gastroenteritis hospitalizations and to determine the contribution of norovirus., Methods: We analyzed all gastroenteritis-associated hospital discharges during 1996-2007 from a nationally representative data set of hospital inpatient stays. Annual rates of discharges by age were calculated. Time-series regression models were fitted using cause-specified discharges as explanatory variables; model residuals were analyzed to estimate norovirus- and rotavirus-associated discharges. We then calculated the annual hospital charges for norovirus-associated discharges., Results: Sixty-nine percent of all gastroenteritis discharges were cause-unspecified and rates increased by ≥ 50% in all adult and elderly age groups (≥ 18 years of age) from 1996 through 2007. We estimate an annual mean of 71,000 norovirus-associated hospitalizations, costing $493 million per year, with surges to nearly 110,000 hospitalizations per year in epidemic seasons. We also estimate 24,000 rotavirus hospitalizations annually among individuals aged ≥ 5 years., Conclusions: Gastroenteritis hospitalizations are increasing, and we estimate that norovirus is the cause of 10% of cause-unspecified and 7% of all-cause gastroenteritis discharges. Norovirus should be routinely considered as a cause of gastroenteritis hospitalization.

We compared acute gastroenteritis (AGE)-related hospitalization rates among children <5 years of age during the pre–rotavirus vaccine (2000–2006) and post–rotavirus vaccine (2008–2013) periods to estimate national reductions in AGE-related hospitalizations and associated costs. We estimate that between 2008 and 2013, AGE-related hospitalizations declined by 382000, and $1.228 billion in medical costs were averted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although recognized as the leading cause of epidemic acute gastroenteritis across all age groups, norovirus has remained poorly characterized with respect to its endemic disease incidence. Use of different methods, including attributable proportion extrapolation, population-based surveillance, and indirect modeling, in several recent studies has considerably improved norovirus disease incidence estimates for the United States. Norovirus causes an average of 570--800 deaths, 56,000--71,000 hospitalizations, 400,000 emergency department visits, 1.7--1.9 million outpatient visits, and 19--21 million total illnesses per year. Persons ≥65 years of age are at greatest risk for norovirus-associated death, and children <5 years of age have the highest rates of norovirus-associated medical care visits. Endemic norovirus disease occurs year round but exhibits a pronounced winter peak and increases by ≤50% during years in which pandemic strains emerge. These findings support continued development and targeting of appropriate interventions, including vaccines, for norovirus disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Following the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in the United States, rotavirus and cause-unspecified gastroenteritis discharges significantly decreased in 2008 in the 0-4, 5-14, and 15-24-year age groups, with significant reductions observed in March, the historic peak rotavirus month, in all age groups. We estimate that 15% of the total 66 000 averted hospitalizations and 20% of the $204 million in averted direct medical costs attributable to the vaccination program were among unvaccinated 5-24 year-olds. This study demonstrates a previously unrecognized burden of severe rotavirus in the population >5 years and the primacy of very young children in the transmission of rotavirus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments the study on the re-evaluation of epidemiological criteria for keying out outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis due to norovirus in the U.S. The author stressed that the data used in the study is limited that do not clearly reflect the overall occurrence of the outbreak. He asserted that the result of the study therefore fall short in providing the basic information about norovirus epidemiology.