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7. Long-term security of energy supply and climate change

Author

Turton, Hal and Barreto, Leonardo

Subjects
Energy policy -- Analysis, Climatic changes -- Political aspects, Company business management, Business, Environmental issues, Petroleum, energy and mining industries
Abstract

A study is conducted to analyze various energy policy instruments that manage energy security and climate risks. The importance of these policies in sustainability in global energy systems is also presented.

Published
2006

8. Toxicity of linoleic acid hydroperoxide to Saccharomyces cerevisiae: involvement of a respiration-related process for maximal sensitivity and adaptive response

Author

Evans, Marguerite V., Turton, Hal E., Grant, Chris M., and Dawes, Ian W.

Subjects
Saccharomyces -- Research, Linoleic acids -- Research, Biological sciences
Abstract

A study was conducted to examine the toxic effects of linoleic acid hydroperoxide (LoaOOH) to Saccharomyces cerevisiae using a wild-type yeast and isogenic mutants affected in known antioxidant defense systems. Results reveal the resistance of the bacteria to hydrogen peroxide upon pretreatment of LoaOOH. In addition, it was observed that the yeast's defense systems help in the direct and indirect detoxification of fatty acid hydroperoxides.

Published
1998

9. Saccharomyces cerevisiae exhibits a yAP-1-mediated adaptive response to malondialdehyde

Author

Turton, Hal E., Dawes, Ian W., and Grant, Chris M.

Subjects
Saccharomyces -- Genetic aspects, Aldehydes -- Genetic aspects, Microbial metabolism -- Genetic aspects, Biological sciences
Abstract

The toxicity of malondialdehyde (MDA) on yeast cells was analyzed to determine the ability of the microorganisms to detoxify the reactive aldehyde. Exposure of wild-type Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells to nonlethal concentrations of MDA and subsequent exposure to lethal doses of the aldehyde induced cellular resistance. Furthermore, adaptation response to MDA was mediated by yAP1 which encoded a yeast transcription activator that was homologous to the mammalian AP-1 protein.

Published
1997

11. A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

Author

Kannan, Ramachandran, Turton, Hal, Kannan, Ramachandran, and Turton, Hal

Abstract

A new Swiss TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) electricity model with an hourly representation of inter-temporal detail and a century-long model horizon has been developed to explore the TIMES framework's suitability as a long-term electricity dispatch model. To understand the incremental insights from this hourly model, it is compared to an aggregated model with only two diurnal timeslices like in most MARKAL/TIMES models. Two scenarios have been analysed with both models to answer the following questions: Are there differences in model solutions? What are the benefits of having a high number of timeslices? Are there any computational limitations? The primary objective of this paper is to understand the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions. The analysis reveals that the hourly model offers powerful insights into the electricity generation schedule. Nevertheless, the TIMES framework cannot substitute for a dispatch model because some features cannot be represented; however, the long model time horizon and integrated system approaches of TIMES provide features not available in conventional dispatch models. The methodology of the model development and insights from the model comparison are described

Published
2018

12. Automobile technology, hydrogen and climate change: a long term modelling analysis

Author

Turton, Hal and Barreto, Leonardo

Subjects
Automobile industry -- Innovations, Greenhouse gases -- Environmental aspects, Hydrogen as fuel -- Environmental aspects, Automobile Industry, Science and technology
Abstract

Byline: Hal Turton, Leonardo Barreto The transitions in the global automobile sector in the 21st century are uncertain both in terms of technologies and energy carriers. A key driving force of technological change in the long term could be the need to mitigate GHG emissions. This paper examines the role of the passenger car sector in a GHG mitigation strategy and presents a scenario of the automobile technology choices when a price on greenhouse gas emissions is imposed on the global energy system. The analysis has been conducted with ERIS, a multiregional energy systems, 'bottom up' optimisation model that endogenises technology learning and allows a detailed technology representation, in addition to capturing competing demands for transportation fuels, including hydrogen. Our results provide some policy insights by illustrating the potential for hydrogen to contribute to climate change mitigation, but show that fuel cell cars are an option for climate policy only over the very long term.

Published
2007

13. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Author

Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Méjean, Aurélie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Joint Research Centre (IPTS), Commission Européenne, centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Chaire MPDD, and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Energy system models, Integrated assessment models, Order (exchange), Carbon price, Management of Technology and Innovation, Taverne, Econometrics, Range (statistics), Economics, Business and International Management, Baseline (configuration management), Applied Psychology, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Climate change economics, Climate policy, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Variety (cybernetics), Transformation (function), Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Energy intensity, Model diagnostics, business
Abstract

International audience; Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Published
2015

14. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Author

Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, McCollum, David L., Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, McCollum, David L., Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, and Edenhofer, Ottmar

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2°C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

Published
2015

15. CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

Author

Bauer, Nico, Bosetti, Valentina, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kitous, Alban, McCollum, David, Méjean, Aurélie, Rao, Shilpa, Turton, Hal, Paroussos, Leonidas, Ashina, Shuichi, Calvin, Katherine, Wada, Kenichi, van Vuuren, Detlef, Bauer, Nico, Bosetti, Valentina, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kitous, Alban, McCollum, David, Méjean, Aurélie, Rao, Shilpa, Turton, Hal, Paroussos, Leonidas, Ashina, Shuichi, Calvin, Katherine, Wada, Kenichi, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Abstract

This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger-twice and more-than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

Published
2015

16. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Author

Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, McCollum, David L., Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Environmental Sciences, Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, McCollum, David L., Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, and Edenhofer, Ottmar

Published
2015

17. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Author

Environmental Sciences, Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Méjean, Aurélie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Méjean, Aurélie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, and Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2015

18. CO2 emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

Author

Environmental Sciences, Bauer, Nico, Bosetti, Valentina, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kitous, Alban, McCollum, David, Méjean, Aurélie, Rao, Shilpa, Turton, Hal, Paroussos, Leonidas, Ashina, Shuichi, Calvin, Katherine, Wada, Kenichi, van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, Bauer, Nico, Bosetti, Valentina, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kitous, Alban, McCollum, David, Méjean, Aurélie, Rao, Shilpa, Turton, Hal, Paroussos, Leonidas, Ashina, Shuichi, Calvin, Katherine, Wada, Kenichi, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2015

20. Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Author

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, Edenhofer, Ottmar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, and Edenhofer, Ottmar

Abstract

International audience, This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

21. A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework

Author

Kannan, Ramachandran, Turton, Hal, Kannan, Ramachandran, and Turton, Hal

Abstract

A new Swiss TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) electricity model with an hourly representation of inter-temporal detail and a century-long model horizon has been developed to explore the TIMES framework's suitability as a long-term electricity dispatch model. To understand the incremental insights from this hourly model, it is compared to an aggregated model with only two diurnal timeslices like in most MARKAL/TIMES models. Two scenarios have been analysed with both models to answer the following questions: Are there differences in model solutions? What are the benefits of having a high number of timeslices? Are there any computational limitations? The primary objective of this paper is to understand the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions. The analysis reveals that the hourly model offers powerful insights into the electricity generation schedule. Nevertheless, the TIMES framework cannot substitute for a dispatch model because some features cannot be represented; however, the long model time horizon and integrated system approaches of TIMES provide features not available in conventional dispatch models. The methodology of the model development and insights from the model comparison are described

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